That's Osborne, a billion per week in extra taxes, increased welfare spending, and some populist rhetoric on welfare that doesn't save any money being the equivalent of the 75p income tax.
Corporation tax down, welfare reforms on the way.
Policy ain't just spending at a single point in time - you never learn.
That's Osborne, a billion per week in extra taxes, increased welfare spending, and some populist rhetoric on welfare that doesn't save any money being the equivalent of the 75p income tax.
Corporation tax down, welfare reforms on the way.
Policy ain't just spending at a single point in time - you never learn.
"welfare reforms on the way."
Won't save any money though, just more and more on housing benefit while you get excited about a cap
If the Tories can shut up about Europe for five minutes we must be very close now for the media narrative to be all about Ed Milibands dismal mid term performance.
norman smith @BBCNormanS 2m John Baron confirms he will push his EU referendum amendment to a vote
iain watson @iainjwatson 4m John baron urges the chancellor to back the eu amendment -and offers to take the blame for putting matters beyond ministers' control
As I pointed out the other day, on the day of the elections YouGov gave Labour a lead of 11. The national equivalent lead was 3 or 4 depending on your choice of analyst. If we assume that Yougov is overstating Labour by 7 then by a happy (and probably pointless) coincidence we find that their corrected lead is the same as this poll given that they currently have Labour ahead by 10.
Which proves not very much really, except the failure of Labour to make a positive case is hurting them as the tories set the agenda on welfare reform and even Europe, god help us. My guess, as the economy picks up, is that Labour will look back at these years as a wasted opportunity.
Robert Peston @Peston 2m Contagion from Co-op Bank's woes to wider Co-op group: S&P revises outlook for group to negative from stable, citing bank's capital hole
Oooops... but, but it has £3bn worth of assets....
As I pointed out the other day, on the day of the elections YouGov gave Labour a lead of 11. The national equivalent lead was 3 or 4 depending on your choice of analyst. If we assume that Yougov is overstating Labour by 7 then by a happy (and probably pointless) coincidence we find that their corrected lead is the same as this poll given that they currently have Labour ahead by 10.
Which proves not very much really, except the failure of Labour to make a positive case is hurting them as the tories set the agenda on welfare reform and even Europe, god help us. My guess, as the economy picks up, is that Labour will look back at these years as a wasted opportunity.
At least I hope so.
One needs to be cautious in comparing local election projected national vote shares with opinion polls. Labour have a long record of under-performing, at local elections, compared to their national poll share.
Nonetheless, I take the point that neither recent local elections, nor recent opinion polls, have been terribly encouraging for Labour. 25% for UKIP and Others is evidence of massive disaffection with the political class.
Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."
What makes me laugh is when I get accused of being a socialist/Europhile.
Robert Peston @Peston 2m Contagion from Co-op Bank's woes to wider Co-op group: S&P revises outlook for group to negative from stable, citing bank's capital hole
Oooops... but, but it has £3bn worth of assets....
Such as the loans to the Labour party? That'll save them.
As I pointed out the other day, on the day of the elections YouGov gave Labour a lead of 11. The national equivalent lead was 3 or 4 depending on your choice of analyst. If we assume that Yougov is overstating Labour by 7 then by a happy (and probably pointless) coincidence we find that their corrected lead is the same as this poll given that they currently have Labour ahead by 10.
Which proves not very much really, except the failure of Labour to make a positive case is hurting them as the tories set the agenda on welfare reform and even Europe, god help us. My guess, as the economy picks up, is that Labour will look back at these years as a wasted opportunity.
At least I hope so.
One needs to be cautious in comparing local election projected national vote shares with opinion polls. Labour have a long record of under-performing, at local elections, compared to their national poll share.
Nonetheless, I take the point that neither recent local elections, nor recent opinion polls, have been terribly encouraging for Labour. 25% for UKIP and Others is evidence of massive disaffection with the political class.
Yes, I was not clear whether they simply made adjustments for the areas that were and were not voting or whether they also adjusted for the lower turnout which disproportinatly hits Labour. If it is the former then a direct comparison is not valid but I still think we will find that YouGov are overstating Labour's lead.
The lack of enthusiasm shown by Labour supporters in this poll is yet another consequence of the blank sheet of paper approach. No one paid any attention but Ed's speech at the weekend was truly painful. The man has nothing of substance to say. Cameron is a lucky man.
Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."
What makes me laugh is when I get accused of being a socialist/Europhile.
We knew we could count on you, comrade - just one of our more successful sleepers.
(Oh God, now someone will think I'm serious and urge you to sue me...)
Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."
What makes me laugh is when I get accused of being a socialist/Europhile.
The people who post on the Telegraph blogs are truly mad. Well, current company excepted, of course.
anthonyjwells @IsabelHardman She can try... but only possible if a joint party description is registered by UKIP *and* CCHQ. Good luck with that
AndrewSparrow Nadine Dorries says she wd like to stand on joint Conservative/Ukip ticket - guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/… - Does that count as semi-defection?
Off-topic (and you can characterise this as look:squirreling if it makes anyone happy) did anyone else notice Nick Clegg being billed as "Dicky Pride Minister" by Sky News' auto-subtitles this lunchtime? Is this a regular epithet, or a new development? I can only assume that he's being lined up to manage the gay marriage referendum we'll be promised by the end of this week.
Mr. Polruan, on a serious note subtitles can very often be terrible. I use them sometimes and whilst generally ok they can be poor and are sometimes absolutely abysmal. It's just not good enough.
And whilst I'm on my high horse, all cashpoints should have audio options to help enable those with poor eyesight to use them.
The increase was tiny 0.1%. Reminds you of the joke about decimal places being there to show you economists have a sense of humour. What is significant is that when the originally predicted 0.9% they were criticised for being too optimistic.
The BBC will get another go next month when the BoE will be upgrading its forecasts again. See if they can do any better.
And whilst I'm on my high horse, all cashpoints should have audio options to help enable those with poor eyesight to use them.
Coming soon to a Co-operative Bank cash machine near you: the dulcet tones of Ed Balls MP telling you that "the funds you have requested are not available for release to depositors right now. Please try again in June 2015".
Christ-on-a-bike, some of those commenters are bonkers. I mean properly, eye-swivellingly nuts. An example:
"...Sean Thomas is a vile piece of scum who by trying to take attention away from these gangs and blame the wholly innocent Nick Griffin is himself complicit in child rape."
Mr. Polruan, on a serious note subtitles can very often be terrible. I use them sometimes and whilst generally ok they can be poor and are sometimes absolutely abysmal. It's just not good enough.
And whilst I'm on my high horse, all cashpoints should have audio options to help enable those with poor eyesight to use them.
"Please Enter PIN"
"2...5...6...0"
Hmm. Not sure that's one of your finest ideas. Especially as you can't even see the mugger waiting patiently behind you.
Mr. Polruan, on a serious note subtitles can very often be terrible. I use them sometimes and whilst generally ok they can be poor and are sometimes absolutely abysmal. It's just not good enough.
And whilst I'm on my high horse, all cashpoints should have audio options to help enable those with poor eyesight to use them.
"Please Enter PIN"
"2...5...6...0"
Hmm. Not sure that's one of your finest ideas. Especially as you can't even see the mugger waiting patiently behind you.
There are loads of ATMs that do audio feedback - lookout for the 3.5mm headphone jacks...
Mr. Anorak, those with visual impairments often have to ask passers-by to enter their PIN directly. Besides, there is such a thing as earphones.
See, now you've made me feel vaguely embarrassed and guilty by treating my attempt at humour seriously.
I thought key pads had those little nobbles on so that the visually impaired could use them without assistance. And while we're on the topic, how does a nobble on the '5' tell you if it's a 'keyboard' pad (1,2,3 at bottom) or a 'phone' pad (1,2,3 at top)?
Oh, sorry, Mr. Anorak. This just irks me quite a bit because it's a simple and easy change to make, but by its absence (from many but not all cashpoints) it makes things harder for those with difficulty seeing.
So, there's no need to feel guilty. Unless, of course, you've been having filthy, sordid thoughts coveting your neighbour's wife.
Mr. Anorak, those with visual impairments often have to ask passers-by to enter their PIN directly. Besides, there is such a thing as earphones.
A Co-Op shop in North Baddesley had one of those standalone cashpoint machines. I was waiting in a queue as an elderly lady tried to use the machine. She fumbled in her purse for her card, put it in, then produced a piece of paper. She dropped it, and asked someone next to me in the queue to read it out for her, in front of us all. It was her pin.
I despaired for her, and also pitied her. It must be terrible being that frail, knowing that the world has moved on around you. I was tempted to take her to one side and warn her not to do that, but as usual I was a coward and didn't want to get involved.
The increase was tiny 0.1%. Reminds you of the joke about decimal places being there to show you economists have a sense of humour. What is significant is that when the originally predicted 0.9% they were criticised for being too optimistic.
The BBC will get another go next month when the BoE will be upgrading its forecasts again. See if they can do any better.
There appears to be some debate over what exactly the BoE forecast for 2013 is.
"So far, this does not seem to be quite the breakthrough we thought it was. Some city forecasters, like Citi, think the Bank is now forecasting growth of 1.3% in 2013.
But looking at the same figures, many other have concluded the 2013 forecast is now 1.1%. There's a range of views on the 2014 growth figure too, though it looks pretty close to 1.8%."
"...Labour’s online and small value donations now exceed the amount the party receives in trade union affiliation fees. That still leaves the big one-off donations from the unions,"
The increase was tiny 0.1%. Reminds you of the joke about decimal places being there to show you economists have a sense of humour. What is significant is that when the originally predicted 0.9% they were criticised for being too optimistic.
The BBC will get another go next month when the BoE will be upgrading its forecasts again. See if they can do any better.
There appears to be some debate over what exactly the BoE forecast for 2013 is.
"So far, this does not seem to be quite the breakthrough we thought it was. Some city forecasters, like Citi, think the Bank is now forecasting growth of 1.3% in 2013.
But looking at the same figures, many other have concluded the 2013 forecast is now 1.1%. There's a range of views on the 2014 growth figure too, though it looks pretty close to 1.8%."
I found this fan chart in the Bank of England report: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/PublishingImages/inflationreport/gdpmktmay13large.gif In fairness you can see some of the problem from this. Why these stupid fan charts have not been abandoned, instead of simplified, is beyond me. They create confusion but also make spurious claims to probabilities. In the recession we fell completely outwith the fan projection very rapidly showing they were tosh, to use a technical term.
FWIW this seems to show a cental projection of 0.5 in Q2, somewhat less, maybe 0.2 in Q3 and maybe 0.3 in Q4 making a total of 1.3% If that is right it is a bigger increase than I thought.
I was surprised by your post the other day about multi-member constituencies pre-dating single-member constituencies. Is there any chance of a change back to multi-member constituencies, or is all the focus on variations of PR, and transferable votes?
The trend away from speaking English has increased this year at Tower Hamlets Council meetings in East London, it has been claimed.
Now one of the councillors has made an official complaint about the use of Bengali - widely spoken among councillors who hail from Bangladesh - in the council chamber.
Councillor Abdal Ullah claims he was insulted, but some of the English-speaking councillors and public visitors failed to realise what had happened.
The Labour councillor claims he was called a "shurer batcha" - which means "Son of a pig" -- by a rival councillor during a heated exchange last month.
The slur is extremely offensive to Muslims. Councillor Ullah said in letter to the council's Standards Committee: "Whilst we may have our differences, councillors should afford one another courtesy in our exchanges rather than resorting to unnecessary and abusive insults."
He added that he was concerned that only English should be used in council meetings.
He wrote: "In my view the use of Bengali or other languages - other than in translation during public questions or petitions and so on - disrupts the transparency and openness of meeting by preventing some present from understanding the exchanges taking place."
Other complaints about the use of Bengali during meetings are also understood to have been received at the town hall.
Nadine Dorries MP @NadineDorriesMP Conversation re Conservative candidate with UKIP endorsement is right wing version of the same proposal by Nick Boles with Lib Dems
Philip Cowley @philipjcowley Today is proof that it's no good inviting people back into the tent if they are still pissing all over the place...
Yeah whatever, but a 4% loss of Labour eurosceptic votes would now place you behind Cameron if Ipsos is correct.
A local council decided against flying the flag of St George after concerns were raised that it would offend the town’s 16 Muslim residents.
Eleanor Jackson, a university lecturer, said the red and white symbol could cause upset in Radstock, Somerset, because it was used during the Crusades 1,000 years ago.
The Labour councillor voiced her concerns at a meeting called to discuss which flag should be purchased to fly atop the town's repaired civic flagpole. She said: “My big problem is that it is offensive to some Muslims, but even more so that it has been hijacked by the far right.
"My thoughts are we ought to drop it for 20 years." Radstock Town Council, which serves a local population of more than 5,600 residents, eventually decided to purchase a Union flag to fly on Armistice.
The rainbow flag of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender pride movement will be flown at “appropriate” times of the year while an In Bloom flag will celebrate the town's achievements in the gardening competition. [as if that wouldn't displease anyone].
Yesterday's session of the Scottish Affairs committee on the pension implications of independence sets out some very important questions that the Scottish Government will have to give some convincing answers to.
A local council decided against flying the flag of St George after concerns were raised that it would offend the town’s 16 Muslim residents.
Eleanor Jackson, a university lecturer, said the red and white symbol could cause upset in Radstock, Somerset, because it was used during the Crusades 1,000 years ago.
The Labour councillor voiced her concerns at a meeting called to discuss which flag should be purchased to fly atop the town's repaired civic flagpole. She said: “My big problem is that it is offensive to some Muslims, but even more so that it has been hijacked by the far right.
"My thoughts are we ought to drop it for 20 years." Radstock Town Council, which serves a local population of more than 5,600 residents, eventually decided to purchase a Union flag to fly on Armistice.
The rainbow flag of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender pride movement will be flown at “appropriate” times of the year while an In Bloom flag will celebrate the town's achievements in the gardening competition. [as if that wouldn't displease anyone].
The story is totally misleading, as the final three paragraphs make clear (unless the council chair is lying, of course):
Lesley Mansell, the council chair, insisted that the discussion focused primarily on buying a Union flag.
“We were presented a list of every flag we can fly as a local authority but the council agreed that we did not want to fly all of them and simply wanted to purchase our own Union Jack," she said.
“The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
Yesterday's session of the Scottish Affairs committee on the pension implications of independence sets out some very important questions that the Scottish Government will have to give some convincing answers to.
Don't insult our intelligence: it's a victory for Eck. It always is.
Nadine Dorries MP @NadineDorriesMP Conversation re Conservative candidate with UKIP endorsement is right wing version of the same proposal by Nick Boles with Lib Dems
Philip Cowley @philipjcowley Today is proof that it's no good inviting people back into the tent if they are still pissing all over the place...
Yeah whatever, but a 4% loss of Labour eurosceptic votes would now place you behind Cameron if Ipsos is correct.
And if the 10/10 voting preferences are correct then UKIP take 18% of pensioners and the Tory share among over 65's is down to 34%.and they are out of power for at least five years.
But I very much doubt it is
You could be right, but what we are increasingly seeing is uncharted territory. The Ukipalypse is currently making a lot of our perceived wisdom suspect. It's theirs to balls up of course, but if they keep their nerve they have the current going with them and not against. The Euros next followed by the big parties focusing on Scotland ( so less sniping ) and then straight into the GE. Once they start making inroads into Labour areas they'll continue.
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
People will believe what they want to believe. I choose to believe the leader of the council: "The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
The only thing worse than FPTP is surely multimember FPTP!
Mr Carswell gives them a thumbs up, if combined with candidates selected in primaries.
The idea there presumably being that the use of primaries would mean that the voters would know each candidate to some extent, rather than just having the party badge to guide them.
politicshomeuk @politicshomeuk On Nadine Dorries' plan to stand on joint UKIP-Tory ticket, CCHQ tells PolHome: “This is not party policy, and it’s not going to happen."
A local council decided against flying the flag of St George after concerns were raised that it would offend the town’s 16 Muslim residents.
Eleanor Jackson, a university lecturer, said the red and white symbol could cause upset in Radstock, Somerset, because it was used during the Crusades 1,000 years ago.
The Labour councillor voiced her concerns at a meeting called to discuss which flag should be purchased to fly atop the town's repaired civic flagpole. She said: “My big problem is that it is offensive to some Muslims, but even more so that it has been hijacked by the far right.
"My thoughts are we ought to drop it for 20 years." Radstock Town Council, which serves a local population of more than 5,600 residents, eventually decided to purchase a Union flag to fly on Armistice.
The rainbow flag of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender pride movement will be flown at “appropriate” times of the year while an In Bloom flag will celebrate the town's achievements in the gardening competition. [as if that wouldn't displease anyone].
The story is totally misleading, as the final three paragraphs make clear (unless the council chair is lying, of course):
Lesley Mansell, the council chair, insisted that the discussion focused primarily on buying a Union flag.
“We were presented a list of every flag we can fly as a local authority but the council agreed that we did not want to fly all of them and simply wanted to purchase our own Union Jack," she said.
“The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
It's so obvious it's unbelievable that anyone would fall for it. They were buying a Union Jack, they carried on buying a Union Jack, and they will fly a Union Jack as a more fitting flag to mark Armistice Day.
Do we think the World Wars were fought by the British or by the English?
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
People will believe what they want to believe. I choose to believe the leader of the council: "The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
People will believe what they want to believe. I choose to believe the leader of the council: "The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
Sure, but it wasn't half a dickhead thing to say.
Agreed - utterly moronic. It looks like her colleagues thought the same.
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
I was surprised by your post the other day about multi-member constituencies pre-dating single-member constituencies. Is there any chance of a change back to multi-member constituencies, or is all the focus on variations of PR, and transferable votes?
Simon de Montfort's system remained more or less intact from 1264 to 1885. Alas, it used the Bloc Vote (apart from an experiment with the Limited Vote in some seats 1868-1885).
When Gladstone brought in the Third Great Reform Act (enfranchising many more in the countryside) the Tories realised the Bloc Vote would now see them lose many double-member seats in the counties by 2-0, and would lead in Salisbury's words to "the absolute effacement of the Conservative Party. It would not have reappeared as a political force for thirty years..."
Against the wishes of many Tories (who then, as now, were not too good at sums), Salisbury forced the Liberals to concede mostly single-member constituencies, in exchange for the Lords not blocking the Act. Now in the counties, the Tories would still win some seats, while in the boroughs they also stood to gain for the first time, and "villa Toryism" was born.
So in some sense, single member seats were an "electoral reform" demanded by the Tories in an act of self-preservation.
But, what worked reasonably well in 1885 with just two parties now does not work so well with potentially four or more. In fact, the only honest view is it's on its last legs...
Ironically, any electoral reform that doesn't uses lists (and thereby abolishes constituencies altogether) must by necessity go back to a constituency structure not unlike de Montfort's.
Small multi-member seats representing the boroughs and the counties.
Only don't use the Bloc Vote! Use a more sophisticated counting system, like STV, or PR^2 (which (even better) links the national outcome directly to first preference votes).
Yesterday's session of the Scottish Affairs committee on the pension implications of independence sets out some very important questions that the Scottish Government will have to give some convincing answers to.
You told me that I was a very naughty boy when I mentioned this subject. Does that mean that you join me on the naughty step?
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
It depends on why they changed their vote. There are certainly any number of socially conservative Labour voters, as well as plenty of Labour voters who want to pull out of the EU or who would like to see immigration curbed. I don't think there is any great surprise in that. I'd guess that there are far fewer Labour vpoters who would support the massive tax cuts for the wealthiest that UKIP's flat tax rate policies would lead to or the huge reductions in state spending that would be required to enable this.
Crikey - I know Luton is a dump - but one with lots of shootings?
A town at the heart of the usually sedate Home Counties is being patrolled day and night by armed police trying to stop feuding gangs killing eachother.
In the past four months there have been nine shootings in Luton linked to trouble between youths on the Marsh Farm and Lewsey Farm estates.
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
It depends on why they changed their vote. There are certainly any number of socially conservative Labour voters, as well as plenty of Labour voters who want to pull out of the EU or who would like to see immigration curbed. I don't think there is any great surprise in that. I'd guess that there are far fewer Labour vpoters who would support the massive tax cuts for the wealthiest that UKIP's flat tax rate policies would lead to or the huge reductions in state spending that would be required to enable this.
So if the Labour Party is happy to accommodate those who want to pull out of the EU (as, for example, does John Mills) and to see immigration curbed (copyright: EdM) does that make it right wing?
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
It depends on why they changed their vote. There are certainly any number of socially conservative Labour voters, as well as plenty of Labour voters who want to pull out of the EU or who would like to see immigration curbed. I don't think there is any great surprise in that. I'd guess that there are far fewer Labour vpoters who would support the massive tax cuts for the wealthiest that UKIP's flat tax rate policies would lead to or the huge reductions in state spending that would be required to enable this.
So if the Labour Party is happy to accommodate those who want to pull out of the EU (as, for example, does John Mills) and to see immigration curbed (copyright: EdM) does that make it right wing?
Er, no. I am not quite sure where you are going with this.
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
It depends on why they changed their vote. There are certainly any number of socially conservative Labour voters, as well as plenty of Labour voters who want to pull out of the EU or who would like to see immigration curbed. I don't think there is any great surprise in that. I'd guess that there are far fewer Labour vpoters who would support the massive tax cuts for the wealthiest that UKIP's flat tax rate policies would lead to or the huge reductions in state spending that would be required to enable this.
So if the Labour Party is happy to accommodate those who want to pull out of the EU (as, for example, does John Mills) and to see immigration curbed (copyright: EdM) does that make it right wing?
Er, no. I am not quite sure where you are going with this.
If the views that people have in the Labour Party ("socially conservative") are the same as those that they have in UKIP, and if, when they are in the Labour Party, they are not right wing (you have yet to agree with this), how is my contention wrong that not all Kippers are right wing?
Can anyone spot the obvious urban myth on this thread?
all Kippers are right-wingers?
I'll buy that one.
Sounds good.
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
Er, as Labour supporters.
So assuming that their views didn't change dramatically and that they found a party that more accurately reflected their views you believe that there were indeed still are plenty of right wing Labour Party members?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
It depends on why they changed their vote. There are certainly any number of socially conservative Labour voters, as well as plenty of Labour voters who want to pull out of the EU or who would like to see immigration curbed. I don't think there is any great surprise in that. I'd guess that there are far fewer Labour vpoters who would support the massive tax cuts for the wealthiest that UKIP's flat tax rate policies would lead to or the huge reductions in state spending that would be required to enable this.
So if the Labour Party is happy to accommodate those who want to pull out of the EU (as, for example, does John Mills) and to see immigration curbed (copyright: EdM) does that make it right wing?
Er, no. I am not quite sure where you are going with this.
If the views that people have in the Labour Party ("socially conservative") are the same as those that they have in UKIP, and if, when they are in the Labour Party, they are not right wing (you have yet to agree with this), how is my contention wrong that not all Kippers are right wing?
Comments
Policy ain't just spending at a single point in time - you never learn.
The wheels fall off FPTP when ENP goes above 4.
www.titanictown.plus.com/ENP.png
We are looking at a LHI index of disproportionality at the next election of around 30%.
The largest ever, and probably the largest in the "democratic" world.
Oh, and a Labour government as a result...
Thanks
http://www.grindtv.com/outdoor/nature/post/two-bald-eagles-in-air-battle-crash-land-at-airport/
Could be an omen of the Obama and House clash.
*turns on BBC Parliament, fetches popcorn*
If we assume that Yougov is overstating Labour by 7 then by a happy (and probably pointless) coincidence we find that their corrected lead is the same as this poll given that they currently have Labour ahead by 10.
Which proves not very much really, except the failure of Labour to make a positive case is hurting them as the tories set the agenda on welfare reform and even Europe, god help us. My guess, as the economy picks up, is that Labour will look back at these years as a wasted opportunity.
At least I hope so.
Contagion from Co-op Bank's woes to wider Co-op group: S&P revises outlook for group to negative from stable, citing bank's capital hole
Oooops... but, but it has £3bn worth of assets....
Nonetheless, I take the point that neither recent local elections, nor recent opinion polls, have been terribly encouraging for Labour. 25% for UKIP and Others is evidence of massive disaffection with the political class.
Robert Peston @Peston 11m
Contagion from Co-op Bank's woes to wider Co-op group: S&P revises outlook for group to negative from stable, citing bank's capital hole
At the 2015 GE,how many will be tory/ukip candidates or even labour/ukip on the ticket ?
The lack of enthusiasm shown by Labour supporters in this poll is yet another consequence of the blank sheet of paper approach. No one paid any attention but Ed's speech at the weekend was truly painful. The man has nothing of substance to say. Cameron is a lucky man.
Can't see there being any Labour/Ukip ones - UNITE wouldn't allow it.
(Oh God, now someone will think I'm serious and urge you to sue me...)
1/Sumsquares(voteshare)
LHI = Loosemore-Hanby Index of Disproportionality
(1/2) * Sum[Abs(deviation)]
AndrewSparrow Nadine Dorries says she wd like to stand on joint Conservative/Ukip ticket - guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/… - Does that count as semi-defection?
http://www.markpack.org.uk/41089/joint-tickets-how-the-cooperative-party-has-ended-up-helping-nigel-farage/
And whilst I'm on my high horse, all cashpoints should have audio options to help enable those with poor eyesight to use them.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22539965
It is truly pathetic journalism.
The increase was tiny 0.1%. Reminds you of the joke about decimal places being there to show you economists have a sense of humour. What is significant is that when the originally predicted 0.9% they were criticised for being too optimistic.
The BBC will get another go next month when the BoE will be upgrading its forecasts again. See if they can do any better.
"2...5...6...0"
Hmm. Not sure that's one of your finest ideas. Especially as you can't even see the mugger waiting patiently behind you.
I thought key pads had those little nobbles on so that the visually impaired could use them without assistance. And while we're on the topic, how does a nobble on the '5' tell you if it's a 'keyboard' pad (1,2,3 at bottom) or a 'phone' pad (1,2,3 at top)?
So, there's no need to feel guilty. Unless, of course, you've been having filthy, sordid thoughts coveting your neighbour's wife.
I despaired for her, and also pitied her. It must be terrible being that frail, knowing that the world has moved on around you. I was tempted to take her to one side and warn her not to do that, but as usual I was a coward and didn't want to get involved.
@DavidL
There appears to be some debate over what exactly the BoE forecast for 2013 is.
"So far, this does not seem to be quite the breakthrough we thought it was. Some city forecasters, like Citi, think the Bank is now forecasting growth of 1.3% in 2013.
But looking at the same figures, many other have concluded the 2013 forecast is now 1.1%. There's a range of views on the 2014 growth figure too, though it looks pretty close to 1.8%."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22540886
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/danhodges/100217138/non-predatory-but-non-profitable-are-labour-still-singing-the-praises-of-the-co-operative-bank/
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/party-finance/party-finance-analysis/party-funding/party-finance-analysis-Q1-2013
Vote ranking
Con, Lab, UKIP, LD
but thanks to FPTP
Seat ranking
Lab, Con, LD, UKIP (0)
FPTP=toast
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/PublishingImages/inflationreport/gdpmktmay13large.gif
In fairness you can see some of the problem from this. Why these stupid fan charts have not been abandoned, instead of simplified, is beyond me. They create confusion but also make spurious claims to probabilities. In the recession we fell completely outwith the fan projection very rapidly showing they were tosh, to use a technical term.
FWIW this seems to show a cental projection of 0.5 in Q2, somewhat less, maybe 0.2 in Q3 and maybe 0.3 in Q4 making a total of 1.3% If that is right it is a bigger increase than I thought.
Coalition: 41%
Labour: 34%
The only thing worse than FPTP is surely multimember FPTP!
The trend away from speaking English has increased this year at Tower Hamlets Council meetings in East London, it has been claimed.
Now one of the councillors has made an official complaint about the use of Bengali - widely spoken among councillors who hail from Bangladesh - in the council chamber.
Councillor Abdal Ullah claims he was insulted, but some of the English-speaking councillors and public visitors failed to realise what had happened.
The Labour councillor claims he was called a "shurer batcha" - which means "Son of a pig" -- by a rival councillor during a heated exchange last month.
The slur is extremely offensive to Muslims. Councillor Ullah said in letter to the council's Standards Committee: "Whilst we may have our differences, councillors should afford one another courtesy in our exchanges rather than resorting to unnecessary and abusive insults."
He added that he was concerned that only English should be used in council meetings.
He wrote: "In my view the use of Bengali or other languages - other than in translation during public questions or petitions and so on - disrupts the transparency and openness of meeting by preventing some present from understanding the exchanges taking place."
Other complaints about the use of Bengali during meetings are also understood to have been received at the town hall.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10059523/Too-much-Bengali-spoken-in-council-meetings-visitors-complain.html
e.g.
Lab1 100 votes
Lab2 99
Lab3 98
Con1 97
Con2 96
Con3 96
UKIP1 97
UKIP2 97
UKIP3 96
LD1 96
LD2 96
LD3 95
In this example, Labour would sweep the board (3 councillors out of 3) for a little over 25% of the vote...
5 The Co-operative Group (CWS) Ltd £412,973 - Co-operative Party
A local council decided against flying the flag of St George after concerns were raised that it would offend the town’s 16 Muslim residents.
Eleanor Jackson, a university lecturer, said the red and white symbol could cause upset in Radstock, Somerset, because it was used during the Crusades 1,000 years ago.
The Labour councillor voiced her concerns at a meeting called to discuss which flag should be purchased to fly atop the town's repaired civic flagpole. She said: “My big problem is that it is offensive to some Muslims, but even more so that it has been hijacked by the far right.
"My thoughts are we ought to drop it for 20 years." Radstock Town Council, which serves a local population of more than 5,600 residents, eventually decided to purchase a Union flag to fly on
Armistice.
The rainbow flag of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender pride movement will be flown at “appropriate” times of the year while an In Bloom flag will celebrate the town's achievements in the gardening competition. [as if that wouldn't displease anyone].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10059873/Council-vetoes-flag-of-St-George-after-concerns-raised-about-links-to-Crusades.html
I've no idea how the Co-op is structured but surely at some point a fiduciary responsibility is breached?
Lesley Mansell, the council chair, insisted that the discussion focused primarily on buying a Union flag.
“We were presented a list of every flag we can fly as a local authority but the council agreed that we did not want to fly all of them and simply wanted to purchase our own Union Jack," she said.
“The statement made by one councillor regarding the St George’s flag was not really taken into consideration.”
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/seanthomas/100217075/oxford-gang-rape-did-people-ignore-this-sort-of-scandal-because-racist-nick-griffin-was-the-first-to-mention-them/
It's not at all like Sean to stir things up. I can't think what could have happened...
The idea there presumably being that the use of primaries would mean that the voters would know each candidate to some extent, rather than just having the party badge to guide them.
http://youtu.be/6SD3M5aMYzU?t=5m10s
On Nadine Dorries' plan to stand on joint UKIP-Tory ticket, CCHQ tells PolHome: “This is not party policy, and it’s not going to happen."
Au Revoir Rouge..
So how would you have described the Labour => UKIP supporters before they switched?
What was it about the Labour Party previously - and currently - that so happily accommodated right wingers?
Alas, it used the Bloc Vote (apart from an experiment with the Limited Vote in some seats 1868-1885).
When Gladstone brought in the Third Great Reform Act (enfranchising many more in the countryside) the Tories realised the Bloc Vote would now see them lose many double-member seats in the counties by 2-0, and would lead in Salisbury's words to "the absolute effacement of the Conservative Party. It would not have reappeared as a political force for thirty years..."
Against the wishes of many Tories (who then, as now, were not too good at sums), Salisbury forced the Liberals to concede mostly single-member constituencies, in exchange for the Lords not blocking the Act. Now in the counties, the Tories would still win some seats, while in the boroughs they also stood to gain for the first time, and "villa Toryism" was born.
So in some sense, single member seats were an "electoral reform" demanded by the Tories in an act of self-preservation.
But, what worked reasonably well in 1885 with just two parties now does not work so well with potentially four or more. In fact, the only honest view is it's on its last legs...
Ironically, any electoral reform that doesn't uses lists (and thereby abolishes constituencies altogether) must by necessity go back to a constituency structure not unlike de Montfort's.
Small multi-member seats representing the boroughs and the counties.
Only don't use the Bloc Vote! Use a more sophisticated counting system, like STV, or PR^2 (which (even better) links the national outcome directly to first preference votes).
Labour's biggest donor wants EU vote.
A town at the heart of the usually sedate Home Counties is being patrolled day and night by armed police trying to stop feuding gangs killing eachother.
In the past four months there have been nine shootings in Luton linked to trouble between youths on the Marsh Farm and Lewsey Farm estates.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2324949/Armed-officers-patrol-streets-LUTON-stop-dangerous-shoot-outs-feuding-gangs.html#ixzz2TNfdkGrS
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http://conservativehome.blogs.com/platform/2013/05/jackie-doyle-price-mp.html
Before the comments were closed Sean was being portrayed as being a lily livered liberal. Wonderful
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22535160
Tory/UKIP: 44%
Euroholics: 44%