How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?
Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.
Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.
But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
Seemed to be about timing the announcement with the Conservative conference at the start of October.
Nicola Sturgeon has seen off three Tory prime ministers.
I hate that expression. Seeing off suggests someone was key to the other going, which is not always so.
Maybe:
Nicola Sturgeon has seen out three Tory prime ministers.
Also 2 Lab leaders, 4 LDs, 2 SLDs, 2 SCons and 3 SLab, all while angling for some mysterious international sinecure.
Remarkable!
One day the annual "Sturgeon to be replaced" thread will be right. One day.
Though she's still little closer to actually getting Scotland independent. One day she might achieve something, otherwise just squatting for decades in office but not achieving your ambitions is a funny sort of success.
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
(Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
Rollerball is a fantastic film. Haven't watched it for a bit.
Bits of it are outstanding. When it was so influential in my life I couldn't actually go to the cinema and see it. I wasn't 15.
Now I look at it as a really good film. Not so rewatchable (although I have done so and will do so many times), but unforgettably intense.
Caroline Noakes on t’telly arguing for online hustings and ballots for the members vote to get a final result within one month from today.
Glad to hear someone gets it. We don’t have time to waste, I’m extremely worried about our national unpreparedness for what might be the biggest economic crisis in 50 years if / when Vlad turns off Europe’s gas this winter.
There's an energy security bill going through parliament at the moment isn't there? Not seen the content.
Talking of energy Germany’s largest landlord is going to start limiting tenants heating at certain times to save energy and money.
Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
I think it's certainly possible Boris could stick around, be a thorn in the side of the new government and try to become LOTO when Con are defeated at the next election.
One tiny snag though is that he'll probably lose his seat the next election lol...
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
Today I swam in a wild curve of river, with ospreys and terns. I saw one boat in an hour
I did a long walk through lovely woods. Snakes and tortoises, sunlight and quietness. Again alone
Now I eat brilliant food and the calm still warm evening light falls away over the hills
I was going to go back to the coast tomorrow. Not now. I can’t recommend inland Montenegro highly enough. My one complaint was the food but they just fixed that. My cabin with the stupendous view is £30 a night
Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.
Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.
Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.
Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.
That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
Clearly I need to cast the bitter rage net a little wider
Well, I say 'nobody.' i'm sure @malcolmg or @Dura_Ace would have a spirited go if they were around.
But to most people he's a blank canvass who's done OK in helping Ukraine. So they project their hopes on him.
That will not survive him having to make the first of a very large number of really tough policy calls.
It might not survive the first hustings … if there are any.
Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
I think it's certainly possible Boris could stick around, be a thorn in the side of the new government and try to become LOTO when Con are defeated at the next election.
One tiny snag though is that he'll probably lose his seat the next election lol...
Do you need a seat to influence the government? Farage never did. He could do it from a chat show.
Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
Boris is done.
Trust me.
I've got pretty every call right on Boris this year. (I thought he might just be evicted at the start of June - no doubt many wishing they had been that bit bolder and would have saved all the intervening. But otherwise called it all right. Down to Brady telling him he had the numbers to call a second VONC, which he would lose....)
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
(Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
Rollerball is a fantastic film. Haven't watched it for a bit.
Bits of it are outstanding. When it was so influential in my life I couldn't actually go to the cinema and see it. I wasn't 15.
Now I look at it as a really good film. Not so rewatchable (although I have done so and will do so many times), but unforgettably intense.
I sneaked in.
My first introdution to the music of JS Bach. A music to have your bones shake to. I guess now I've got all flash and I might prefer Faure.
Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.
Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."
So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.
Truss is the obvious continuity candidate.
I posted about this on previous thread. Starting from a conversation with my dad, he said Major got the backing of Kady Thstcher and her supporters mainly to stop Hessle on Tyne getting the crown and this election could be similar in a favourite losing to someone else as Boris backers seek to stop someone else. This is what Was posted on previous thread
“ Betting Post. I would think the scenario is more similar to following Thatcher than after May, because May’s government was paralysed by inability to get Brexit done, it was an ideological split over type of Brexit, there was a clear leader and way forward waiting to take over. My Dad tells me Major won because he had the blessing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters, which may have been to stop the candidates those supporters didn’t like. This election could come down to something similar - continuity v change in direction.
Now we are here and it is happening, if you havn’t held great office of state for long, or a Mayor or LOTO, being an unknown quantity might be more handicap than advantage imo. Those who like the Boris Brexit brand and promises might pile in behind Liz Truss as “continuity candidate” putting her into last two and most likely winner. Pile in behind her in much same way Major got it to stop others getting it. if you are candidate for a brand change from Boris and his positions and policies - is the Blukipper membership really up for brand change?
Right now I would have Truss favourite. But it will be interesting to see what sort of roll bookies favourite Mourdant can get on.”
Welcome back Moon Rabbit.
I love the idea of 'Hessle on Tyne.' That's brilliant.
I'm guessing dictation function? It made 'Wallace's' into 'Wallace is' for me but was otherwise not nearly so creative.
Michael Heseltine. Sorry. 🤦♀️
The central point of him is Lady Thatcher supporters on John Major to stop Heseltine coming through, so this race might be Boris supporters on [best placed to stop Rishi] I sense with things like “it’s not a remark I would have made” onwards the Boris fans blame Rishi for all this. Something to bear in mind?
Whoever wins has to be in the final two of the MPs voting, but I wonder how many of the possibles stand any chance with the membership if they do get through. What are the criteria for Tory membership approval?
They have five criteria.
A) Brexiteerish as possible.
B )Low taxes
C) Get a grip on borrowing
D) Hose money at public services
E) Must be fucking crazy.
The first four are a sort of best fit. The last is essential.
Nad! You know it makes sense
She would almost certainly beat Sunak or Hunt if she were up against them in the final two.
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
Today I swam in a wild curve of river, with ospreys and terns. I saw one boat in an hour
I did a long walk through lovely woods. Snakes and tortoises, sunlight and quietness. Again alone
Now I eat brilliant food and the calm still warm evening light falls away over the hills
I was going to go back to the coast tomorrow. Not now. I can’t recommend inland Montenegro highly enough. My one complaint was the food but they just fixed that. My cabin with the stupendous view is £30 a night
Rijeka Crnojevića?
Brilliant. Yes. How did you know??
You were quite right to send me inland. It’s fabulous
The coast is as beautiful as everyone says and I will go back there but it is quite touristy. There is almost no one here in the Dinaric Alps and it’s like a warm, incredibly cheap Switzerland
I had an entire river to myself today, to swim. Perfect blue skies and cool delicious water. Where else can you get that?
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, that will speed things up.....
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, then I can’t see it goes to anyone but Truss.
What about Penny?
I don’t think she’ll get it this time for lack of high-office experience. I could see her coming out of the contest with a great office of state, but I’m not sure PM.
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
Today I swam in a wild curve of river, with ospreys and terns. I saw one boat in an hour
I did a long walk through lovely woods. Snakes and tortoises, sunlight and quietness. Again alone
Now I eat brilliant food and the calm still warm evening light falls away over the hills
I was going to go back to the coast tomorrow. Not now. I can’t recommend inland Montenegro highly enough. My one complaint was the food but they just fixed that. My cabin with the stupendous view is £30 a night
Rijeka Crnojevića?
Brilliant. Yes. How did you know??
You were quite right to send me inland. It’s fabulous
The coast is as beautiful as everyone says and I will go back there but it is quite touristy. There is almost no one here in the Dinaric Alps and it’s like a warm, incredibly cheap Switzerland
I had an entire river to myself today, to swim. Perfect blue skies and cool delicious water. Where else can you get that?
You're making Montenegro sound very attractive as a holiday destination if I can find a flight in the autumn.
** looks sadly at Julian Smith for Tory leader betting slip **
** wonders if he reads PB **
Come on Julian! Why not?
He's far too capable, Cyclefree. You knew that when you placed your bet.
Silly girl.
I know. Silly me - expecting competence.
This is Britain where bullshit, lies and a massive ego untethered to reality are all you need to succeed.
Anyway, Mordaunt pissed off Mumsnet users by refusing to answer a load of questions on womens' rights. Not giving an answer that people disagreed with. But just refusing to answer at all. Why bother coming on then?
Not a good look in someone wanting to be PM. They will have to deal with all issues not just ones they like. If you haven't made your mind up that's one thing but agreeing to come, not being prepared for what you should reasonably expect and then refuse to answer shows contempt for your audience.
The Smile – a band whose line-up features Jonny Greenwood and Thom Yorke – are on tour in Europe at the minute. Each night, their tourbus driver runs a themed pub quiz, pitting the band against their crew.
One night the theme was "Radiohead".
The crew won.</i>
Even Radiohead's frontman forgets their music and who can blame him.
Despite his numerous flaws Johnson was charismatic and appealed to a significant number of voters that are unlikely to be enthused by any of the likely contenders. I'm not so sure that his departure is as bad news for the opposition parties as some seem to think.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
I think it's certainly possible Boris could stick around, be a thorn in the side of the new government and try to become LOTO when Con are defeated at the next election.
One tiny snag though is that he'll probably lose his seat the next election lol...
You don't think he could find another, safer - or at least more winnable - seat?
Has been known to happen. For example, in 2001 happened to run into Sir Malcolm Rifkind campaigning in Edinburgh Pentlands to regain his old seat (unsuccessfully).
Sir Malcolm ended his parliamentary career as MP for Kensington and Chelsea.
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
Today I swam in a wild curve of river, with ospreys and terns. I saw one boat in an hour
I did a long walk through lovely woods. Snakes and tortoises, sunlight and quietness. Again alone
Now I eat brilliant food and the calm still warm evening light falls away over the hills
I was going to go back to the coast tomorrow. Not now. I can’t recommend inland Montenegro highly enough. My one complaint was the food but they just fixed that. My cabin with the stupendous view is £30 a night
Rijeka Crnojevića?
Brilliant. Yes. How did you know??
You were quite right to send me inland. It’s fabulous
The coast is as beautiful as everyone says and I will go back there but it is quite touristy. There is almost no one here in the Dinaric Alps and it’s like a warm, incredibly cheap Switzerland
I had an entire river to myself today, to swim. Perfect blue skies and cool delicious water. Where else can you get that?
You're making Montenegro sound very attractive as a holiday destination if I can find a flight in the autumn.
You can fly direct London-Tivat on EasyJet
Tivat is a tiny airport on the coast (so minimal hassle, you’re out in minutes and you could be swimming in a quarter of an hour)
Only problem with autumn, maybe, is weather. It will still be gorgeous on the coast - like Greece - but inland in the mountains it rains A LOT. That’s why it is so green
The people are universally friendly, cheerful, kind and keen to speak English
Despite his numerous flaws Johnson was charismatic and appealed to a significant number of voters that are unlikely to be enthused by any of the likely contenders. I'm not so sure that his departure is as bad news for the opposition parties as some seem to think.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
There is no candidate who will have noticeable appeal to moderate or centrist voters.
There are ones who will leave them cold and ones who will have them in a blind panic.
If you could combine Sunak’s common touch, with Truss’ calm warmth, Wallace’s charisma, Mordants experience, Javid’s powerful voice, Hunts colourful personality, Zahawi’s integrity, Tugenhats recognition and Raabs modesty you’d have a great candidate.
For decades, Boris Johnson has managed to barrel his way through scandals of every stripe. Where colleagues and contemporaries would fold under the weight of disgrace, he somehow managed to withstand it. Yet now he finds himself wiped out by the sort of scandal he once would have easily brushed off with an idle hand. So what happened?
There's a rumour going around about that sinus operation he reportedly had under general anaesthetic. There was a fair bit of suspicion surrounding it at the time, seeing as ops like that generally require the patient to take a week or two off work to recuperate, but Boris was present at both Rupert Murdoch's summer party and a Tory donor bash that same night.
The talk is that Boris wasn't getting his sinuses seen to at all. He was getting the snip.
And if there's any truth to that, then the timing of this recent run of bad luck is really going to prey on the mind of a Classics scholar like him...
Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.
Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."
So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.
Truss is the obvious continuity candidate.
I posted about this on previous thread. Starting from a conversation with my dad, he said Major got the backing of Kady Thstcher and her supporters mainly to stop Hessle on Tyne getting the crown and this election could be similar in a favourite losing to someone else as Boris backers seek to stop someone else. This is what Was posted on previous thread
“ Betting Post. I would think the scenario is more similar to following Thatcher than after May, because May’s government was paralysed by inability to get Brexit done, it was an ideological split over type of Brexit, there was a clear leader and way forward waiting to take over. My Dad tells me Major won because he had the blessing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters, which may have been to stop the candidates those supporters didn’t like. This election could come down to something similar - continuity v change in direction.
Now we are here and it is happening, if you havn’t held great office of state for long, or a Mayor or LOTO, being an unknown quantity might be more handicap than advantage imo. Those who like the Boris Brexit brand and promises might pile in behind Liz Truss as “continuity candidate” putting her into last two and most likely winner. Pile in behind her in much same way Major got it to stop others getting it. if you are candidate for a brand change from Boris and his positions and policies - is the Blukipper membership really up for brand change?
Right now I would have Truss favourite. But it will be interesting to see what sort of roll bookies favourite Mourdant can get on.”
Welcome back Moon Rabbit.
I love the idea of 'Hessle on Tyne.' That's brilliant.
I'm guessing dictation function? It made 'Wallace's' into 'Wallace is' for me but was otherwise not nearly so creative.
Michael Heseltine. Sorry. 🤦♀️
The central point of him is Lady Thatcher supporters on John Major to stop Heseltine coming through, so this race might be Boris supporters on [best placed to stop Rishi] I sense with things like “it’s not a remark I would have made” onwards the Boris fans blame Rishi for all this. Something to bear in mind?
Difference this time is I don’t think there are Boris fans as such. Not enough of them. He isn’t an ism. There are hard Brexiteers, libertarians and Thatcherite deregulators, religious authoritarians, red wall pork barrellers, a few remnant wets and then lots of people who are just there for the ride.
It doesn’t really matter who Nadine and Jacob vote for.
The Smile – a band whose line-up features Jonny Greenwood and Thom Yorke – are on tour in Europe at the minute. Each night, their tourbus driver runs a themed pub quiz, pitting the band against their crew.
One night the theme was "Radiohead".
The crew won.</i>
Even Radiohead's frontman forgets their music and who can blame him.
I said the other day that radiohead labelled some tapes of a forthcoming album "Kula Shaker demo" On the grounds that if they were lost that eliminated the risk anyone would listen to them.
Waste of the world's best joke, which would be the same except {any other band in the world} and {radiohead demo}
As someone who wants a Labour government next time, only one of that list concerns me. None have the electoral appeal of Boris.
Love the way you don't say who it is 'just in case' it might influence the Tories in selecting them.
Well we wouldn’t want to make it easy now would we. Do you get a vote this time around? A reduced Tory membership means that each vote is pretty influential.
Yeah. I payed my subs and get the emails. So I hope so.
Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
I think it's certainly possible Boris could stick around, be a thorn in the side of the new government and try to become LOTO when Con are defeated at the next election.
One tiny snag though is that he'll probably lose his seat the next election lol...
You don't think he could find another, safer - or at least more winnable - seat?
Has been known to happen. For example, in 2001 happened to run into Sir Malcolm Rifkind campaigning in Edinburgh Pentlands to regain his old seat (unsuccessfully).
Sir Malcolm ended his parliamentary career as MP for Kensington and Chelsea.
** looks sadly at Julian Smith for Tory leader betting slip **
** wonders if he reads PB **
Come on Julian! Why not?
He's far too capable, Cyclefree. You knew that when you placed your bet.
Silly girl.
I know. Silly me - expecting competence.
This is Britain where bullshit, lies and a massive ego untethered to reality are all you need to succeed.
Anyway, Mordaunt pissed off Mumsnet users by refusing to answer a load of questions on womens' rights. Not giving an answer that people disagreed with. But just refusing to answer at all. Why bother coming on then?
Not a good look in someone wanting to be PM. They will have to deal with all issues not just ones they like. If you haven't made your mind up that's one thing but agreeing to come, not being prepared for what you should reasonably expect and then refuse to answer shows contempt for your audience.
To be honest, I'm not sure who I would bet on if given a free bet. Maybe Hunt, but then he's far too sensible and normal.
I just don't understand Tory Party politics any more, if indeed I ever did.
Despite his numerous flaws Johnson was charismatic and appealed to a significant number of voters that are unlikely to be enthused by any of the likely contenders. I'm not so sure that his departure is as bad news for the opposition parties as some seem to think.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
There is no candidate who will have noticeable appeal to moderate or centrist voters.
There are ones who will leave them cold and ones who will have them in a blind panic.
As a moderate centrist who won’t actually ever vote Tory but has friends who just might, the only one who wouldn’t either scare or depress me is Sajid.
I have not a scooby who will be Tory leader at all. I would like to see a serious discussion of how we are going to resolve the manifold and manifest problems of the country. So that the winner emerges with some semblance of an agreed plan.
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, that will speed things up.....
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, then I can’t see it goes to anyone but Truss.
Some weeks back, I said Boris would go - and the members would have the choice between Truss and Mordaunt. Which Mordaunt would win.
Well you have called Boris very right and well done on that. Personally as a member I would like to vote for Jeremy Hunt again. I or family members have met several of the potential runners in various capacities and they have all been very nice except Suella.
For decades, Boris Johnson has managed to barrel his way through scandals of every stripe. Where colleagues and contemporaries would fold under the weight of disgrace, he somehow managed to withstand it. Yet now he finds himself wiped out by the sort of scandal he once would have easily brushed off with an idle hand. So what happened?
There's a rumour going around about that sinus operation he reportedly had under general anaesthetic. There was a fair bit of suspicion surrounding it at the time, seeing as ops like that generally require the patient to take a week or two off work to recuperate, but Boris was present at both Rupert Murdoch's summer party and a Tory donor bash that same night.
The talk is that Boris wasn't getting his sinuses seen to at all. He was getting the snip.
And if there's any truth to that, then the timing of this recent run of bad luck is really going to prey on the mind of a Classics scholar like him...
Anthony Wells @anthonyjwells · 2h Another thing we get sometimes - polls that show respondents clips or info about each candidate, then ask about them. These depend A LOT on the clips or info you show, so can be a minefield. But are food for thought if they show an unknown shining: be sceptical, but don't dismiss
Despite his numerous flaws Johnson was charismatic and appealed to a significant number of voters that are unlikely to be enthused by any of the likely contenders. I'm not so sure that his departure is as bad news for the opposition parties as some seem to think.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
There is no candidate who will have noticeable appeal to moderate or centrist voters.
There are ones who will leave them cold and ones who will have them in a blind panic.
Sunak gave them a hosepipe of free money each of the last three years.
I have not a scooby who will be Tory leader at all. I would like to see a serious discussion of how we are going to resolve the manifold and manifest problems of the country. So that the winner emerges with some semblance of an agreed plan.
Ben Wallace may not be the brightest match in the book, but he does have the JIm Hacker quality of not having annoyed anyone. In that sense I think this contest will end up a cake walk for him, since most of the other candidates are either manifestly useless or have made very vicious enemies. His Army pedigree will go down a storm with the crinklies in the party at large, because he is a *safe pair of hands*. Apart from moderate, but generally not psychotic, Brexitism ( which is compulsory in a Tory leader anyway) and mildly one nation aspirationism, he has never really expressed stong opinions on major domestic policy areas, so, as others have noted, he can be a blank canvass for his party to project their hopes onto.
His problem is that the there is a humdinger of an economic crisis coming down the tracks (and Brexit will be blamed for at least some of it), and he does not really get economics. Of course that might be a good thing, since he can then point Javid or Sunak at the problem and stand above the fray. However continuing to tell the EU to do one, under the circs would not be clever, so its a fine line he has to walk.
He slightly shoots Labours fox, by appearing to be a functioning adult, thus trespassing on SKS USP. Nevertheless he has so many challenges, chief of which is a rattled, rebellious and divided Party, that it is hard to see that his version of Hackerism will rise to anything more than mediocrity.
On the other hand after the shit show of the past few years, plenty of people will take dull/mediocre with a sigh of relief. In any event, its his for the taking.
Goodness he was bitter on the news just now. He should have thought a bit more carefully before blowing up his career shouldn’t he.
So should Osborne, who might well have come through the middle here.
Let’s say we get a moderate winning the crown. A Tugendhat, or a Hunt etc… do we think we might see someone like Stewart (or Osborne?) come back into Parliament at the next election?
Nah, George is done with frontline politics, plus the Tory party as of now doesn't do George's economic policies.
That said he did have a hand in writing Saj's resignation letter.
I just wonder if some of the potential front runners, particularly the younger ones, might see this winter’s shitstorm coming at them and decide to sit this one out.
The hope for Conservatives must be the removal of Johnson somehow drains the poison from the party. The problem is while he hangs around like a bad spell from now until September it won't be that simple.
The problem for contenders is whether any of them want to be more than a short-term footnote. If the party chooses a leader who goes on to lose the next GE I suspect that leader won't stay long so winning now ends your political career.
The gamble is to win the leadership and then the country (snap autumn GE anyone?) but that is a huge gamble in the current economic and political atmosphere.
The alternative is to sit the contest out, wait for the GE defeat and then challenge and become an active LOTO against a minority or majority Labour Government. That might well suit the younger candidates.
As to the party's direction, moving "to the right" produced Hague, IDS and Howard but that was from the luxury of opposition - I don't quite see how commitments to defence, the NHS and the Police in terms of spending square with tax cuts - presumably it's back to our old friends "welfare" and local Government aided by the ritual demonisation of the "public sector" in all its forms (they all have gold-plated pensions and do nothing because they sit in their gardens "working" at home, so the Mail tells us (so it must be true))
Sunak , non dom wife , FPN , so rich he makes most Tories look like big issue sellers .
Am I missing something that he would be a good candidate against Labour ?
I really think his time has come and gone .
Sunak still remains smooth in interview and natural at dispatch box. He would go down well at CBI conference etc. In those ways he is the ideal leader, head and shoulders in communication skills above all other candidates. He may have same number FPN as Boris, but not hated for lying in same way? Why should his wealth matter at all, if, like Cameron, his politics are moderate and serious and his communication skills the best?
I have Sunak as the “stop him getting it” candidate, Boris supporters, (ERG, the right) will love to hate.
Ben Wallace may not be the brightest match in the book, but he does have the JIm Hacker quality of not having annoyed anyone. In that sense I think this contest will end up a cake walk for him, since most of the other candidates are either manifestly useless or have made very vicious enemies. His Army pedigree will go down a storm with the crinklies in the party at large, because he is a *safe pair of hands*. Apart from moderate, but generally not psychotic, Brexitism ( which is compulsory in a Tory leader anyway) and mildly one nation aspirationism, he has never really expressed stong opinions on major domestic policy areas, so, as others have noted, he can be a blank canvass for his party to project their hopes onto.
His problem is that the there is a humdinger of an economic crisis coming down the tracks (and Brexit will be blamed for at least some of it), and he does not really get economics. Of course that might be a good thing, since he can then point Javid or Sunak at the problem and stand above the fray. However continuing to tell the EU to do one, under the circs would not be clever, so its a fine line he has to walk.
He slightly shoots Labours fox, by appearing to be a functioning adult, thus trespassing on SKS USP. Nevertheless he has so many challenges, chief of which is a rattled, rebellious and divided Party, that it is hard to see that his version of Hackerism will rise to anything more than mediocrity.
On the other hand after the shit show of the past few years, plenty of people will take dull/mediocre with a sigh of relief. In any event, its his for the taking.
SKS vs Baldy Ben, just imagine the rapier thrusts
Durham filth need to kick on and FPN Mogadon Man now the danger of propping up Bojo is history
Despite his numerous flaws Johnson was charismatic and appealed to a significant number of voters that are unlikely to be enthused by any of the likely contenders. I'm not so sure that his departure is as bad news for the opposition parties as some seem to think.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
The Conservatives are done now IMO. Whoever wins the leadership will be presiding over an election defeat in 2024.
You can't keep changing PM's ever few years and expect the public to put up with it.
I think we'll see a small Labour majority in 2024.
Sunak , non dom wife , FPN , so rich he makes most Tories look like big issue sellers .
Am I missing something that he would be a good candidate against Labour ?
I really think his time has come and gone .
Sunak still remains smooth in interview and natural at dispatch box. He would go down well at CBI conference etc. In those ways he is the ideal leader, head and shoulders in communication skills above all other candidates. He may have same number FPN as Boris, but not hated for lying in same way? Why should his wealth matter at all, if, like Cameron, his politics are moderate and serious and his communication skills the best?
I have Sunak as the “stop him getting it” candidate, Boris supporters, (ERG, the right) will love to hate.
He would be a perfectly competent PM and that is all I bloody care about at the moment.
Someone who reads the red boxes, crunches numbers, thinks about detail, worries about consequences and can manage staff and Whitehall.
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, that will speed things up.....
If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, then I can’t see it goes to anyone but Truss.
Some weeks back, I said Boris would go - and the members would have the choice between Truss and Mordaunt. Which Mordaunt would win.
I think Mordaunt should be the front runner now. It is arguable that regardless of starting numbers it is as likely to be a woman as a man. If it is it will be Mordaunt. Truss won't survive the scrutiny.
The election system matters a lot. Assuming that the members vote for the ranting extreme if given a choice, the MPs will want, if they have the numbers, to ensure two appointable people remain for the final. Otherwise the unappointable one gets it.
The hope for Conservatives must be the removal of Johnson somehow drains the poison from the party. The problem is while he hangs around like a bad spell from now until September it won't be that simple.
The problem for contenders is whether any of them want to be more than a short-term footnote. If the party chooses a leader who goes on to lose the next GE I suspect that leader won't stay long so winning now ends your political career.
The gamble is to win the leadership and then the country (snap autumn GE anyone?) but that is a huge gamble in the current economic and political atmosphere.
The alternative is to sit the contest out, wait for the GE defeat and then challenge and become an active LOTO against a minority or majority Labour Government. That might well suit the younger candidates.
As to the party's direction, moving "to the right" produced Hague, IDS and Howard but that was from the luxury of opposition - I don't quite see how commitments to defence, the NHS and the Police in terms of spending square with tax cuts - presumably it's back to our old friends "welfare" and local Government aided by the ritual demonisation of the "public sector" in all its forms (they all have gold-plated pensions and do nothing because they sit in their gardens "working" at home, so the Mail tells us (so it must be true))
The latest date for election is Jan 2025.
That gives this summer's "winner" 2 1/2 years as PM. Not bad.
The Benny Hill theme tune has been blasted outside Parliament live on TV ahead of Boris Johnson's resignation – and it turns out Hugh Grant was behind it"
The problem with haunted Victorian coat-rack, William Rees-Mogg’s comments about Rishi,
“Unsuccessful Chancellor; tax-hiker; didn’t see inflation coming”…is that they appear to be TRUE.
Rishi spent much time choosing the font for his Instagram snaps. We are well rid.
Would love to know how Rees-Mogg thinks this batch of inflation could be avoided..
It can’t, much.
But,
1. Government scoffed that it was even possible until well after informed observers saw it coming.
2. Did not seem to bother with emergency fuel supply measures and showed no interest in micro-economic issues (anti-competition stuff)
3. At least acquiesced in too-loose monetary policy from BoE.
4. Decided to protect pensioners first and pet brunt fall on the very worst off, as well as public sector workers; hoped to stoke anti-union sentiment in culture wars.
James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.
Misery at the news.
Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
(Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
Rollerball is a fantastic film. Haven't watched it for a bit.
Bits of it are outstanding. When it was so influential in my life I couldn't actually go to the cinema and see it. I wasn't 15.
Now I look at it as a really good film. Not so rewatchable (although I have done so and will do so many times), but unforgettably intense.
I sneaked in.
My first introdution to the music of JS Bach. A music to have your bones shake to. I guess now I've got all flash and I might prefer Faure.
Yes, I’d no idea what it was at the time, either. Flash or not, Bach is still the best.
If I recall correctly, Sunak succeeded Javid as Chancellor because Javid had a spine. And yes, the Rees-Mogg critique is factually accurate. Javid might just be strictly better than Sunak, but Sunak was the one who actually got his hosepipe out and pumped magical money into wallets.
I just wonder if some of the potential front runners, particularly the younger ones, might see this winter’s shitstorm coming at them and decide to sit this one out.
on other hand, possible that in 2025 Labour will win a two term majority if things are so bad and so you run now or the moment has passed.
The Benny Hill theme tune has been blasted outside Parliament live on TV ahead of Boris Johnson's resignation – and it turns out Hugh Grant was behind it"
What price Hugh Grant playing Boris in a biopic (and in a wig)?
Comments
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-largest-landlord-reduce-heating-tenants-save-energy-2022-07-07/
One tiny snag though is that he'll probably lose his seat the next election lol...
Am I missing something that he would be a good candidate against Labour ?
I really think his time has come and gone .
Trust me.
I've got pretty every call right on Boris this year. (I thought he might just be evicted at the start of June - no doubt many wishing they had been that bit bolder and would have saved all the intervening. But otherwise called it all right. Down to Brady telling him he had the numbers to call a second VONC, which he would lose....)
The central point of him is Lady Thatcher supporters on John Major to stop Heseltine coming through, so this race might be Boris supporters on [best placed to stop Rishi] I sense with things like “it’s not a remark I would have made” onwards the Boris fans blame Rishi for all this. Something to bear in mind?
Which is genuinely disturbing thought.
Brilliant. Yes. How did you know??
You were quite right to send me inland. It’s fabulous
The coast is as beautiful as everyone says and I will go back there but it is quite touristy. There is almost no one here in the Dinaric Alps and it’s like a warm, incredibly cheap Switzerland
I had an entire river to myself today, to swim. Perfect blue skies and cool delicious water. Where else can you get that?
This is Britain where bullshit, lies and a massive ego untethered to reality are all you need to succeed.
Anyway, Mordaunt pissed off Mumsnet users by refusing to answer a load of questions on womens' rights. Not giving an answer that people disagreed with. But just refusing to answer at all. Why bother coming on then?
Not a good look in someone wanting to be PM. They will have to deal with all issues not just ones they like. If you haven't made your mind up that's one thing but agreeing to come, not being prepared for what you should reasonably expect and then refuse to answer shows contempt for your audience.
With that in mind and without wishing to get personal, Wallace is overpriced as a potential PM in my view.
>> Pablo dummies <<
Rockers, know thyself
The Smile – a band whose line-up features Jonny Greenwood and Thom Yorke – are on tour in Europe at the minute. Each night, their tourbus driver runs a themed pub quiz, pitting the band against their crew.
One night the theme was "Radiohead".
The crew won.</i>
Even Radiohead's frontman forgets their music and who can blame him.
You can pretty much guarantee that the current membership will choose the candidate least likely to appeal to moderate/ centrist voters.
Has been known to happen. For example, in 2001 happened to run into Sir Malcolm Rifkind campaigning in Edinburgh Pentlands to regain his old seat (unsuccessfully).
Sir Malcolm ended his parliamentary career as MP for Kensington and Chelsea.
Tivat is a tiny airport on the coast (so minimal hassle, you’re out in minutes and you could be swimming in a quarter of an hour)
Only problem with autumn, maybe, is weather. It will still be gorgeous on the coast - like Greece - but inland in the mountains it rains A LOT. That’s why it is so green
The people are universally friendly, cheerful, kind and keen to speak English
There are ones who will leave them cold and ones who will have them in a blind panic.
Vas deferens = vast difference
For decades, Boris Johnson has managed to barrel his way through scandals of every stripe. Where colleagues and contemporaries would fold under the weight of disgrace, he somehow managed to withstand it. Yet now he finds himself wiped out by the sort of scandal he once would have easily brushed off with an idle hand. So what happened?
There's a rumour going around about that sinus operation he reportedly had under general anaesthetic. There was a fair bit of suspicion surrounding it at the time, seeing as ops like that generally require the patient to take a week or two off work to recuperate, but Boris was present at both Rupert Murdoch's summer party and a Tory donor bash that same night.
The talk is that Boris wasn't getting his sinuses seen to at all. He was getting the snip.
And if there's any truth to that, then the timing of this recent run of bad luck is really going to prey on the mind of a Classics scholar like him...
of people who are just there for the ride.
It doesn’t really matter who Nadine and Jacob vote for.
Waste of the world's best joke, which would be the same except {any other band in the world} and {radiohead demo}
I just don't understand Tory Party politics any more, if indeed I ever did.
Hardly an insurrection, but a reminder you just can't trust him to do the right thing when it really comes down to it.
I would like to see a serious discussion of how we are going to resolve the manifold and manifest problems of the country.
So that the winner emerges with some semblance of an agreed plan.
“Unsuccessful Chancellor; tax-hiker; didn’t see inflation coming”…is that they appear to be TRUE.
Rishi spent much time choosing the font for his Instagram snaps. We are well rid.
Anthony Wells
@anthonyjwells
·
2h
Another thing we get sometimes - polls that show respondents clips or info about each candidate, then ask about them. These depend A LOT on the clips or info you show, so can be a minefield. But are food for thought if they show an unknown shining: be sceptical, but don't dismiss
https://twitter.com/anthonyjwells/status/1545085373465993216
===
Frank Luntz and David Cameron.
His problem is that the there is a humdinger of an economic crisis coming down the tracks (and Brexit will be blamed for at least some of it), and he does not really get economics. Of course that might be a good thing, since he can then point Javid or Sunak at the problem and stand above the fray. However continuing to tell the EU to do one, under the circs would not be clever, so its a fine line he has to walk.
He slightly shoots Labours fox, by appearing to be a functioning adult, thus trespassing on SKS USP. Nevertheless he has so many challenges, chief of which is a rattled, rebellious and divided Party, that it is hard to see that his version of Hackerism will rise to anything more than mediocrity.
On the other hand after the shit show of the past few years, plenty of people will take dull/mediocre with a sigh of relief. In any event, its his for the taking.
That said he did have a hand in writing Saj's resignation letter.
The problem for contenders is whether any of them want to be more than a short-term footnote. If the party chooses a leader who goes on to lose the next GE I suspect that leader won't stay long so winning now ends your political career.
The gamble is to win the leadership and then the country (snap autumn GE anyone?) but that is a huge gamble in the current economic and political atmosphere.
The alternative is to sit the contest out, wait for the GE defeat and then challenge and become an active LOTO against a minority or majority Labour Government. That might well suit the younger candidates.
As to the party's direction, moving "to the right" produced Hague, IDS and Howard but that was from the luxury of opposition - I don't quite see how commitments to defence, the NHS and the Police in terms of spending square with tax cuts - presumably it's back to our old friends "welfare" and local Government aided by the ritual demonisation of the "public sector" in all its forms (they all have gold-plated pensions and do nothing because they sit in their gardens "working" at home, so the Mail tells us (so it must be true))
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-10991079/Nuclear-war-trigger-new-Ice-Age-study-warns.html
I have Sunak as the “stop him getting it” candidate, Boris supporters, (ERG, the right) will love to hate.
Durham filth need to kick on and FPN Mogadon Man now the danger of propping up Bojo is history
You can't keep changing PM's ever few years and expect the public to put up with it.
I think we'll see a small Labour majority in 2024.
Someone who reads the red boxes, crunches numbers, thinks about detail, worries about consequences and can manage staff and Whitehall.
Javid is similar, as is Hunt.
I advise everyone to wait and see. We've yet to get a process, candidates and MP votes. Then hustings.
I'm personally not impressed by Ben Wallace. At all. Nasty right winger.
And fat. Someone who can't look after his own body shouldn't be allowed to look after the country.
Okay that's a deliberately slightly contentious point but I'm not alone in thinking it. Bald and fat? = Not a winner.
Anyone know why the mixed doubles final is being played tonight instead of at the weekend?
So in terms of Leavers he might be the most palatable for those wanting less nationalistic rhetoric and more EU UK co-operation.
I don’t think the Tories are best served with a continued confrontational approach with the EU .
The candidates who will likely cause most trouble for Labour are unlikely to get the job .
The playbook for 2019 was a perfect storm with Brexit uncertainty and Corbyn . That won’t be the case at the next GE.
Or rather, her Ma Ferguson - Lurleen Wallace act.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miriam_A._Ferguson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lurleen_Wallace
The election system matters a lot. Assuming that the members vote for the ranting extreme if given a choice, the MPs will want, if they have the numbers, to ensure two appointable people remain for the final. Otherwise the unappointable one gets it.
That gives this summer's "winner" 2 1/2 years as PM. Not bad.
The Benny Hill theme tune has been blasted outside Parliament live on TV ahead of Boris Johnson's resignation – and it turns out Hugh Grant was behind it"
But,
1. Government scoffed that it was even possible until well after informed observers saw it coming.
2. Did not seem to bother with emergency fuel supply measures and showed no interest in micro-economic issues (anti-competition stuff)
3. At least acquiesced in too-loose monetary policy from BoE.
4. Decided to protect pensioners first and pet brunt fall on the very worst off, as well as public sector workers; hoped to stoke anti-union sentiment in culture wars.
They're too set on self-destruction and there's too much poison in them.
Flash or not, Bach is still the best.
I think 3 months as defence secretary was as high as she went.