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DefSec Wallace now firm favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com

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Comments

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Seems I was wise to miss it.
    It's basically Xenophon's Anabasis transferred to NYC.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Doesn’t matter - as long as it’s an Etonian and Charles Rees-Hawtry is richer than them than anyone but Sunak.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258
    Cookie said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    LOL @ starmer backers

    Why?
    Not next PM
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.

    Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.

    Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.

    Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.

    That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Barclay?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Oh fucking brilliant we all get to hear about how much each cundidate is a loving father/mother/wife/husband. Next up they'll all be snapped going for a jog or chatting jovially with local business owners. Fuck this.


    You seem to have regenerated as a tremendously embittered, exceedingly angry man, spitting bile at other commenters and infuriated by virtually any subject

    Are you OK? That’s a sincere question, not an attempt to provoke
    He’s always been that way. Incredibly unpleasant and best ignored.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    Andy_JS said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.

    (Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
    Rollerball is a fantastic film. Haven't watched it for a bit.
    Bits of it are outstanding. When it was so influential in my life I couldn't actually go to the cinema and see it. I wasn't 15.

    Now I look at it as a really good film. Not so rewatchable (although I have done so and will do so many times), but unforgettably intense.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Ben Wallace actually standing?

    I have my doubts.

    I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.

    I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.

    I am green on everyone likely to run (I think - gulp!) except Braverman (yeh right...), Steve Baker and Schaps.

    Any word on Mark Harper?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.

    Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.

    Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.

    Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.

    That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
    Clearly I need to cast the bitter rage net a little wider
    Well, I say 'nobody.' i'm sure @malcolmg or @Dura_Ace would have a spirited go if they were around.

    But to most people he's a blank canvass who's done OK in helping Ukraine. So they project their hopes on him.

    That will not survive him having to make the first of a very large number of really tough policy calls.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    edited July 2022

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Ben Wallace actually standing?

    I have my doubts.

    I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.

    I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.

    I am green on everyone likely to run (I think - gulp!) except Braverman (yeh right...), Steve Baker and Schaps.

    Any word on Mark Harper?
    I have my book spread over next leader and next PM on both Smarkets and Bfx, as well as a few sidebets on other bookies so totting up is a bit tricky.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Has Ben Wallace actually said he even wants it?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.

    Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.

    Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.

    Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.

    That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
    Clearly I need to cast the bitter rage net a little wider
    Well, I say 'nobody.' i'm sure @malcolmg or @Dura_Ace would have a spirited go if they were around.

    But to most people he's a blank canvass who's done OK in helping Ukraine. So they project their hopes on him.

    That will not survive him having to make the first of a very large number of really tough policy calls.
    Are they banned?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.

    Maybe she could get channel 4 to do a fly on the wall doc on her campaign?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.

    Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.

    Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.

    Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.

    That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
    Clearly I need to cast the bitter rage net a little wider
    Well, I say 'nobody.' i'm sure @malcolmg or @Dura_Ace would have a spirited go if they were around.

    But to most people he's a blank canvass who's done OK in helping Ukraine. So they project their hopes on him.

    That will not survive him having to make the first of a very large number of really tough policy calls.
    Are they banned?
    Malcolm seems to have reverted to 'applicant' status. Dura Ace I think has gone to Egypt to learn Arabic.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    Boris was a high spending Prime Minister and JRM didn't seem to mind that...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    GIN1138 said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    Boris was a high spending Prime Minister and JRM didn't seem to mind that...
    It was a cult.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    GIN1138 said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    Boris was a high spending Prime Minister and JRM didn't seem to mind that...
    JRM is a hypocrite as well as a fool?

    I'm shocked. Shocked,I tell you.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    what's the red stuff to the right?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    GIN1138 said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    Boris was a high spending Prime Minister and JRM didn't seem to mind that...
    It was a cult.

    You've hit 'l' instead of 'n' and written 'it was' instead of 'he is.'
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Caroline Noakes on t’telly arguing for online hustings and ballots for the members vote to get a final result within one month from today.

    Glad to hear someone gets it. We don’t have time to waste, I’m extremely worried about our national unpreparedness for what might be the biggest economic crisis in 50 years if / when Vlad turns off Europe’s gas this winter.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Oh fucking brilliant we all get to hear about how much each cundidate is a loving father/mother/wife/husband. Next up they'll all be snapped going for a jog or chatting jovially with local business owners. Fuck this.


    You seem to have regenerated as a tremendously embittered, exceedingly angry man, spitting bile at other commenters and infuriated by virtually any subject

    Are you OK? That’s a sincere question, not an attempt to provoke
    He’s always been that way. Incredibly unpleasant and best ignored.
    I expect a "long term lurker" will pop up shortly to tell him about it.

    What he is not, is stupid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,652
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    Dining alone again?
    Very quiet place.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    Based on Sunak’s resignation letter are we sure he’s going to run? Said something about being his last cabinet post?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    boulay said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.

    Maybe she could get channel 4 to do a fly on the wall doc on her campaign?
    One of the many, many good outcomes of today's events is Nad will not be secretary for philistines come October and hopefully the replacement will ditch the BBC hour of hate and so forth.

    Coffey for Culture Sec please. At least she stood up BBC in Cabinet, noting that she listened/watched as did vast numbers of actual tory members.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.

    Truss is the obvious continuity candidate.

    I posted about this on previous thread. Starting from a conversation with my dad, he said Major got the backing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters mainly to stop Hessle on Tyne getting the crown and this election could be similar in a favourite losing to someone else as Boris backers seek to stop someone else. This is what Was posted on previous thread

    “ Betting Post. I would think the scenario is more similar to following Thatcher than after May, because May’s government was paralysed by inability to get Brexit done, it was an ideological split over type of Brexit, there was a clear leader and way forward waiting to take over. My Dad tells me Major won because he had the blessing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters, which may have been to stop the candidates those supporters didn’t like. This election could come down to something similar - continuity v change in direction.

    Now we are here and it is happening, if you havn’t held great office of state for long, or a Mayor or LOTO, being an unknown quantity might be more handicap than advantage imo. Those who like the Boris Brexit brand and promises might pile in behind Liz Truss as “continuity candidate” putting her into last two and most likely winner. Pile in behind her in much same way Major got it to stop others getting it. if you are candidate for a brand change from Boris and his positions and policies - is the Blukipper membership really up for brand change?

    Right now I would have Truss favourite. But it will be interesting to see what sort of roll bookies favourite Mourdant can get on.”

    And from what you have posted, the loyalist, continuity, stop the enemy thing already playing a part is something we should consider in betting.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    Dining alone again?
    Of course. I’m traveling alone. That’s why I like to chat on here

    But if you’re worried for my social life, I just had some beers with my landlord Ratko. Lovely guy, he’s the chap that told me the incredible place to swim. He doesn’t speak a word of English and he can’t even write in Latin letters, so we communicate via Google Translate microphone and an instant speak App and I have to say it is now very close to Babelfish. Amazing that sci-fi has reached reality so quick
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Right. Here’s how Boris reached his decision to quit, per those who talked to him today. 1/

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1545090107807617027

    Right. Here’s how Boris reached his decision to quit, per those who talked to him today. 1/

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1545090107807617027

    That reads how Johnson might seek to best explain what happened today; whether it is fully accurate I rather doubt.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Europe’s most dangerous snake lives in your neck of the woods:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vipera_ammodytes

    Not very dangerous on a world scale, though.

    (FPT, for the safety of Leon, drunkenly scrambling back to his lodgings tonight…)

    It deffo wasn’t that. It was a thick mid brown slightly malevolent looking thing. About 120 cm long. Slithered away at a medium speed, along the path in front

    On the drive to my riverside bar I just saw another snake (dead) and a tortoise (alive). This place is fervent with life, I love it

    Rijeka Crnojevika is precisely where I am. Right next to this bridge. Having some homemade white wine delivered by a shiningly beautiful Montenegrin girl

    Sigh. I love travel


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijeka_Crnojevića_bridge
    Lol. Which twat off-topicked this? I was replying to some helpful speculation about the snake I saw earlier. It’s a conversation, dick
    They're just jealous.
    My guess is that at least half of off topics are pressed by mistake.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    Rory Stewart showing how isolation can ruin you.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    In other news, Steve Baker if you are reading this, shave off your beard.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    DougSeal said:

    Based on Sunak’s resignation letter are we sure he’s going to run? Said something about being his last cabinet post?

    Was that not more of a martyr type situation - “I realise that by doing the right thing I might never be considered for office again but it’s so important to do the right thing that the country comes before my career prospects”. Written in gold leaf by a servant of course whilst he cackled over his million pound tea cup.
  • ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Seems I was wise to miss it.
    It's basically Xenophon's Anabasis transferred to NYC.

    The Sea, the Sea
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    edited July 2022

    IshmaelZ said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    So who is the continuity Bojo that RM is rooting for?
    Nad is assembling her team at a hotel as we speak.

    Truss is the obvious continuity candidate.

    I posted about this on previous thread. Starting from a conversation with my dad, he said Major got the backing of Kady Thstcher and her supporters mainly to stop Hessle on Tyne getting the crown and this election could be similar in a favourite losing to someone else as Boris backers seek to stop someone else. This is what Was posted on previous thread

    “ Betting Post. I would think the scenario is more similar to following Thatcher than after May, because May’s government was paralysed by inability to get Brexit done, it was an ideological split over type of Brexit, there was a clear leader and way forward waiting to take over. My Dad tells me Major won because he had the blessing of Lady Thatcher and her supporters, which may have been to stop the candidates those supporters didn’t like. This election could come down to something similar - continuity v change in direction.

    Now we are here and it is happening, if you havn’t held great office of state for long, or a Mayor or LOTO, being an unknown quantity might be more handicap than advantage imo. Those who like the Boris Brexit brand and promises might pile in behind Liz Truss as “continuity candidate” putting her into last two and most likely winner. Pile in behind her in much same way Major got it to stop others getting it. if you are candidate for a brand change from Boris and his positions and policies - is the Blukipper membership really up for brand change?

    Right now I would have Truss favourite. But it will be interesting to see what sort of roll bookies favourite Mourdant can get on.”
    Welcome back Moon Rabbit.

    I love the idea of 'Hessle on Tyne.' That's brilliant.

    I'm guessing dictation function? It made 'Wallace's' into 'Wallace is' for me but was otherwise not nearly so creative.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    Leon said:

    I have just ordered eel

    I’m not sure I’ve eaten eel outside smoked eel at posh London gaffs and eel in Chinese dishes. It is from the Rijeka Crnojevika, which rolls by right underneath this tavern

    The warm bit of sushi, with the sauce already applied: that's eel, that is.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Farooq said:

    ydoethur said:

    Mordaunt is the gamblers option: the roll of the dice. She could crash and burn just as easily as steering them to a decent result.

    Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.

    Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.

    Wallace's big advantages that nobody actually hates him. Yet.

    That leaves him very well placed to unite to the party and the country and very badly placed indeed to do well as prime minister.
    Clearly I need to cast the bitter rage net a little wider
    Well, I say 'nobody.' i'm sure @malcolmg or @Dura_Ace would have a spirited go if they were around.

    But to most people he's a blank canvass who's done OK in helping Ukraine. So they project their hopes on him.

    That will not survive him having to make the first of a very large number of really tough policy calls.
    Are they banned?
    Malcolm seems to have reverted to 'applicant' status. Dura Ace I think has gone to Egypt to learn Arabic.
    Ah yes - Dura Ace did say.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    ydoethur said:

    Shots fired in the Tory leadership contest already.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."


    https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460

    Jacob Rees Mogg was not a success as a human being. He was a high density politician, and one who was not alert to the overinflatedness of his ego.
    Lord Snooty from the Bash Street kids.
    No. Lord Snooty had pals.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    IshmaelZ said:

    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Oh fucking brilliant we all get to hear about how much each cundidate is a loving father/mother/wife/husband. Next up they'll all be snapped going for a jog or chatting jovially with local business owners. Fuck this.


    You seem to have regenerated as a tremendously embittered, exceedingly angry man, spitting bile at other commenters and infuriated by virtually any subject

    Are you OK? That’s a sincere question, not an attempt to provoke
    He’s always been that way. Incredibly unpleasant and best ignored.
    I expect a "long term lurker" will pop up shortly to tell him about it.

    What he is not, is stupid.
    As if by magic the shopkeeper didn’t appear. One of Pavlov’s dogs did.

    🤡
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Omnium said:

    Rory Stewart showing how isolation can ruin you.

    Goodness he was bitter on the news just now. He should have thought a bit more carefully before blowing up his career shouldn’t he.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    what's the red stuff to the right?
    A humble tomato salad

    But in the little dish on the bottom right is this brilliant garlic dressing and the eel is superb, crunchy skin, sweet flesh, who knew. Eel. Probably fished from the river 10 foot to the left in the last few hours. Superb
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    edited July 2022
    Moggmentum…

    The Tory Corbyn.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Could still work. Set it at 20% and you might only need two ballots. Bearing in mind time is really not on their side here.

    I wonder if they might allow only three days for nominations as well?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    moonshine said:

    Omnium said:

    Rory Stewart showing how isolation can ruin you.

    Goodness he was bitter on the news just now. He should have thought a bit more carefully before blowing up his career shouldn’t he.
    Rory was never a Tory. That’s his problem.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    moonshine said:

    Omnium said:

    Rory Stewart showing how isolation can ruin you.

    Goodness he was bitter on the news just now. He should have thought a bit more carefully before blowing up his career shouldn’t he.
    So should Osborne, who might well have come through the middle here.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,762
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Seems I was wise to miss it.
    It's basically Xenophon's Anabasis transferred to NYC.
    Well there's no argument as to the quality of the source. One of the most interesting accounts ever written.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Oh fucking brilliant we all get to hear about how much each cundidate is a loving father/mother/wife/husband. Next up they'll all be snapped going for a jog or chatting jovially with local business owners. Fuck this.


    You seem to have regenerated as a tremendously embittered, exceedingly angry man, spitting bile at other commenters and infuriated by virtually any subject

    Are you OK? That’s a sincere question, not an attempt to provoke
    I took it as a search for a kindred spirit?
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    what's the red stuff to the right?
    A humble tomato salad

    But in the little dish on the bottom right is this brilliant garlic dressing and the eel is superb, crunchy skin, sweet flesh, who knew. Eel. Probably fished from the river 10 foot to the left in the last few hours. Superb
    Although humble the tomato can be exceptional. One of the best starters I’ve ever had was a Tomato salad at Northcote. Just divine.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    "Boris has failed to fight wokeness
    Gender ideology and identity politics have flourished on his watch
    Joanna Williams"

    https://www.spiked-online.com/2022/07/06/boris-has-failed-to-fight-wokeness/
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Nadal out of Wimbledon.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405

    Nadal out of Wimbledon.

    So Kyrios in the final by default?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    ydoethur said:

    moonshine said:

    Omnium said:

    Rory Stewart showing how isolation can ruin you.

    Goodness he was bitter on the news just now. He should have thought a bit more carefully before blowing up his career shouldn’t he.
    So should Osborne, who might well have come through the middle here.
    Let’s say we get a moderate winning the crown. A Tugendhat, or a Hunt etc… do we think we might see someone like Stewart (or Osborne?) come back into Parliament at the next election?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652
    Carnyx said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Seems I was wise to miss it.
    It's basically Xenophon's Anabasis transferred to NYC.
    With an important message for three dozen Conservative aspiring leaders: "Can you count, suckers?"
  • agingjb2agingjb2 Posts: 114
    Whoever wins has to be in the final two of the MPs voting, but I wonder how many of the possibles stand any chance with the membership if they do get through. What are the criteria for Tory membership approval?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388

    Nadal out of Wimbledon.

    Bollocks. Why couldn't it have been Djokovic?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    GIN1138 said:

    Has Ben Wallace actually said he even wants it?

    He may be having discussions with his family. Big thing to take on, especially if you haven't really expected it and are having it thrust upon you.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    If people do not mind me posting something *not* to do with Boris and No. 10, something rather interesting in space happened this week.

    NASA have a lunar orbiter called CAPSTONE on its way to the Moon. Unfortunately earlier in the week all contact was lost with the probe. As time went on, it looked to external eyes as though it was spinning out of control - bot unheard of for satellites.

    Fortunately NASA have regained contact. It turned out the team sent up a malformed message to the craft that turned off comms, and a bug in the on-board software meant it was not picked up.

    Great news for an interesting mission, and a timely reminder that even the best make big mistakes.

    https://blogs.nasa.gov/artemis/2022/07/07/mission-team-determines-cause-of-communications-issues-for-nasas-capstone/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    edited July 2022
    agingjb2 said:

    Whoever wins has to be in the final two of the MPs voting, but I wonder how many of the possibles stand any chance with the membership if they do get through. What are the criteria for Tory membership approval?

    They have five criteria.

    A) Brexiteerish as possible.

    B )Low taxes

    C) Get a grip on borrowing

    D) Hose money at public services

    E) Must be fucking crazy.

    The first four are a sort of best fit. The last is essential.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    edited July 2022

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Ben Wallace actually standing?

    I have my doubts.

    I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.

    I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.

    I am green on everyone likely to run (I think - gulp!) except Braverman (yeh right...), Steve Baker and Schaps.

    Any word on Mark Harper?
    Betting post. I have £50 on Mark Harper placed on 31st December at 40-1. I’m certain he’ll run, possibly competing for the same supporters as Mourdant, maybe backing her if she wins and being in her cabinet?

    £50 on Javid at 14-1. But the Tories can’t elect Javid though, nom Dom status.

    That is all I have on at moment. If you ask me this evening who wins I am thinking it is Truss, my reasoning in a senior office and representing Brexit and Boris agenda “continuity” with a splash of best placed to “stop Rishi”.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    "Rafael Nadal withdraws from Wimbledon before Nick Kyrgios semi-final with injury
    Last updated 1 minute ago"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/tennis/62082405
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    moonshine said:

    Caroline Noakes on t’telly arguing for online hustings and ballots for the members vote to get a final result within one month from today.

    Glad to hear someone gets it. We don’t have time to waste, I’m extremely worried about our national unpreparedness for what might be the biggest economic crisis in 50 years if / when Vlad turns off Europe’s gas this winter.

    There's an energy security bill going through parliament at the moment isn't there? Not seen the content.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    edited July 2022
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    Dining alone again?
    Very quiet place.
    But magical, @foxy magical

    Today I swam in a wild curve of river, with ospreys and terns. I saw one boat in an hour

    I did a long walk through lovely woods. Snakes and tortoises, sunlight and quietness. Again alone

    Now I eat brilliant food and the calm still warm evening light falls away over the hills

    I was going to go back to the coast tomorrow. Not now. I can’t recommend inland Montenegro highly enough. My one complaint was the food but they just fixed that. My cabin with the stupendous view is £30 a night



  • Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Ben Wallace actually standing?

    I have my doubts.

    I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.

    I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.

    I am green on everyone likely to run (I think - gulp!) except Braverman (yeh right...), Steve Baker and Schaps.

    Any word on Mark Harper?
    Betting post. I have £50 on Mark Harper placed on 31st December at 40-1. I’m certain he’ll run, possibly competing for the same supporters as Mourdant, maybe backing her if she wins and being in her cabinet?

    £50 on Javid at 14-1. But the Tories can’t elect Javid though, nom Dom status.

    That is all I have on at moment. If you ask me this evening who wins I am thinking it is Truss, my reasoning in a senior office and representing Brexit and Boris agenda “continuity” with a splash of best placed to “stop Rishi”.
    Harper ran in 2019 and got a princely 10 votes. Why do you think he would do any better this time around?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Too many of todays papers had the one naff headline

    When they could have gone with

    Gone Bon Govi 😆
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Just 8.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Course we're gonna get Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Lady Dorries with Boris's resignation honours aren't we lol? :D
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    moonshine said:

    Caroline Noakes on t’telly arguing for online hustings and ballots for the members vote to get a final result within one month from today.

    Glad to hear someone gets it. We don’t have time to waste, I’m extremely worried about our national unpreparedness for what might be the biggest economic crisis in 50 years if / when Vlad turns off Europe’s gas this winter.

    What difference will eight weeks make?
  • GIN1138 said:

    Course we're gonna get Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Lady Dorries with Boris's resignation honours aren't we lol? :D

    We could get Lord Rees Mogg for all I care if it gets those nitwits out of the Commons.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Shit, forgot to lay Nadal yesterday.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    GIN1138 said:

    Has Ben Wallace actually said he even wants it?

    He may be having discussions with his family. Big thing to take on, especially if you haven't really expected it and are having it thrust upon you.
    Indeed. He strikes me as the sort of fellow that's likely to very quickly rule himself out in preference of a quiet life.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Fpt
    mwadams said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nicola Sturgeon has seen off three Tory prime ministers.

    I hate that expression. Seeing off suggests someone was key to the other going, which is not always so.
    Maybe:

    Nicola Sturgeon has seen out three Tory prime ministers.
    Also 2 Lab leaders, 4 LDs, 2 SLDs, 2 SCons and 3 SLab, all while angling for some mysterious international sinecure.

    Remarkable!
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    GIN1138 said:

    Course we're gonna get Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg and Lady Dorries with Boris's resignation honours aren't we lol? :D

    We could get Lord Rees Mogg for all I care if it gets those nitwits out of the Commons.
    And he'd fit in much better with the Lords anyway...
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    moonshine said:

    Caroline Noakes on t’telly arguing for online hustings and ballots for the members vote to get a final result within one month from today.

    Glad to hear someone gets it. We don’t have time to waste, I’m extremely worried about our national unpreparedness for what might be the biggest economic crisis in 50 years if / when Vlad turns off Europe’s gas this winter.

    There's an energy security bill going through parliament at the moment isn't there? Not seen the content.
    It’s not going to be a massive help this winter and as we are at war, to all intents and purposes, with Russia why wouldn’t they stop supplying Europe gas.

    We need to pray it’s a mild winter.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Europe’s most dangerous snake lives in your neck of the woods:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vipera_ammodytes

    Not very dangerous on a world scale, though.

    (FPT, for the safety of Leon, drunkenly scrambling back to his lodgings tonight…)

    It deffo wasn’t that. It was a thick mid brown slightly malevolent looking thing. About 120 cm long. Slithered away at a medium speed, along the path in front

    On the drive to my riverside bar I just saw another snake (dead) and a tortoise (alive). This place is fervent with life, I love it

    Rijeka Crnojevika is precisely where I am. Right next to this bridge. Having some homemade white wine delivered by a shiningly beautiful Montenegrin girl

    Sigh. I love travel


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijeka_Crnojevića_bridge
    Lol. Which twat off-topicked this? I was replying to some helpful speculation about the snake I saw earlier. It’s a conversation, dick
    I wouldn't worry. More often than not it's fat finger syndrome.

    Even if it's not, just ignore it.
    Ah, I’m not bothered, just intrigued
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    what's the red stuff to the right?
    A humble tomato salad

    But in the little dish on the bottom right is this brilliant garlic dressing and the eel is superb, crunchy skin, sweet flesh, who knew. Eel. Probably fished from the river 10 foot to the left in the last few hours. Superb
    Although humble the tomato can be exceptional. One of the best starters I’ve ever had was a Tomato salad at Northcote. Just divine.
    Jesus
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Is Ben Wallace actually standing?

    I have my doubts.

    I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.

    I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.

    I am green on everyone likely to run (I think - gulp!) except Braverman (yeh right...), Steve Baker and Schaps.

    Any word on Mark Harper?
    Betting post. I have £50 on Mark Harper placed on 31st December at 40-1. I’m certain he’ll run, possibly competing for the same supporters as Mourdant, maybe backing her if she wins and being in her cabinet?

    £50 on Javid at 14-1. But the Tories can’t elect Javid though, nom Dom status.

    That is all I have on at moment. If you ask me this evening who wins I am thinking it is Truss, my reasoning in a senior office and representing Brexit and Boris agenda “continuity” with a splash of best placed to “stop Rishi”.
    Harper ran in 2019 and got a princely 10 votes. Why do you think he would do any better this time around?
    I don’t really think he gets close to winning to be honest. His profile is higher after these recent months of being gently and firmly outspoken about Boris is one reason he may get more votes this time do you think? Also ERG had another main candidate in 2019 race in Boris, this time if Harper is ERG man he is guaranteed a block of votes.

    If Mourdant or Truss get on role into last two he could bring his support to them and be rewarded with nice job is what I now expect.

    40-1 was tempting long shot price. And at that time TSE was sure next leader wouldn’t come from Boris cabinet.

    TSE - are you still sure of that?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    ** looks sadly at Julian Smith for Tory leader betting slip **

    ** wonders if he reads PB **

    Come on Julian! Why not?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    agingjb2 said:

    Whoever wins has to be in the final two of the MPs voting, but I wonder how many of the possibles stand any chance with the membership if they do get through. What are the criteria for Tory membership approval?

    It shouldn't really matter but personally I think it unlikely the Con membership would vote for a Remainer over a Leaver... Of course the MP's might submit 2 Remainers to the membership...

    Hunt loses with the membership whoever he's up against as well IMO.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    October was never a possibility. It'll be the first or second week of September.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    Cyclefree said:

    ** looks sadly at Julian Smith for Tory leader betting slip **

    ** wonders if he reads PB **

    Come on Julian! Why not?

    He's far too capable, Cyclefree. You knew that when you placed your bet.

    Silly girl.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Fpt

    mwadams said:

    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Nicola Sturgeon has seen off three Tory prime ministers.

    I hate that expression. Seeing off suggests someone was key to the other going, which is not always so.
    Maybe:

    Nicola Sturgeon has seen out three Tory prime ministers.
    Also 2 Lab leaders, 4 LDs, 2 SLDs, 2 SCons and 3 SLab, all while angling for some mysterious international sinecure.

    Remarkable!
    One day the annual "Sturgeon to be replaced" thread will be right. One day.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    It was Brady's long stop which BJ tried to spin into an agreed tenure
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    I get why they are doing it, I'd do the same in their shoes, but... Blimey.


    Even local Tories are celebrating @BorisJohnson's demise.
    Here's a leaflet I've been sent for a council by-election taking place today: 'It's OK to vote Conservative again.'




    https://t.co/y5Vm5QzgKr https://t.co/FlYMGyCSi2
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,526
    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    Brady agreed with Johnson that it should all be done and dusted by the time of the Party Conference in October. Some (Johnson's allies) are saying this means Johnson stays until then, others, including Brady, are saying that is the backstop but they expect it wrapped up much sooner.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    carnforth said:

    Europe’s most dangerous snake lives in your neck of the woods:

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vipera_ammodytes

    Not very dangerous on a world scale, though.

    (FPT, for the safety of Leon, drunkenly scrambling back to his lodgings tonight…)

    It deffo wasn’t that. It was a thick mid brown slightly malevolent looking thing. About 120 cm long. Slithered away at a medium speed, along the path in front

    On the drive to my riverside bar I just saw another snake (dead) and a tortoise (alive). This place is fervent with life, I love it

    Rijeka Crnojevika is precisely where I am. Right next to this bridge. Having some homemade white wine delivered by a shiningly beautiful Montenegrin girl

    Sigh. I love travel


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijeka_Crnojevića_bridge
    Lol. Which twat off-topicked this? I was replying to some helpful speculation about the snake I saw earlier. It’s a conversation, dick
    It was probably Farooq.
    As has been noted, large % of "Off Topic"s are really "Like"s given by near-sighted and/or ham-fisted.

    Do you have a ouija board to help with your investigation?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    Seemed to be about timing the announcement with the Conservative conference at the start of October.

    It will all be wrapped up way before then!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    ydoethur said:

    agingjb2 said:

    Whoever wins has to be in the final two of the MPs voting, but I wonder how many of the possibles stand any chance with the membership if they do get through. What are the criteria for Tory membership approval?

    They have five criteria.

    A) Brexiteerish as possible.

    B )Low taxes

    C) Get a grip on borrowing

    D) Hose money at public services

    E) Must be fucking crazy.

    The first four are a sort of best fit. The last is essential.
    Nad! You know it makes sense
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    Why aren't you watching the cricket?!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    If neither Sunak nor Wallace run, that will speed things up.....
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Nadal - torn abdominal muscle.

    Makes his 5-set win yesterday all the more incredible.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    It was Brady's long stop which BJ tried to spin into an agreed tenure
    It's almost as if Johnson deliberately misconstrued the conversation in the way that was most beneficial to him personally.

    Say what you like, he's always on brand.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.

    (Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
    Jonathan E. !
    Saw it as a kid in a cinema with a good sound system turned well up. Pretty corny now, but back then a real assault on the senses.

    And Ralph Richardson as the librarian: “we’ve lost the 13th C….not much… just Dante and a few corrupt popes…”
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Trump didn’t give up. Can we be sure that Boris is done? I can see a defeated Tory party turn to Boris.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Andy_JS said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    How many nominations are needed to get to the threshold for the first ballot?

    Changes every time. Last time it was 8 so presumably it was set at 2% of the PCP. If they do that again it's going to be around 9-10.

    Might be higher to keep the number of candidates down and speed things up.. 10% threshold would be useful in eliminating nutters like Shapps, Braverman and Barclay.
    Its 8 again, that's a fixed number for nominations AFAIK.

    But last time I believe they did a minimum percentage for votes in the first round to reach which meant that a few people got eliminated rather than just one in the first ballot.
    Aiui the 1922 Committee will finalise the rules next week after its own elections. Of course, they will also be under pressure not to allow Boris to squat till October.
    I don't quite understand where this idea of October has come from. It's surely certain that it will be wrapped up by the first week after recess even if it goes to the membership.
    October was never a possibility. It'll be the first or second week of September.
    Yes, I agree. Gone by early September

    Given that the entire political class disappears from late July to September 1, is that a problem? No

    Arguably, Boris is doing us all a service. Staying on to oversee, and keeping things calm. Would it be better if he was thrown out tomorrow and a hasty interim PM was put in place for a chaotic six weeks? Again, no

    Criticize Boris for many things, but not this. He is doing his duty
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,962
    Leon said:

    Farooq said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    TOPPING said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    James Caan has died. Don’t know if it was down to bad elf or just natural old age. There should be no misery about his passing but rejoicing in his Sonny disposition.

    Misery at the news.
    Rollerball is probably the most influential movie in my life. A friend's father worked at Pinewood. We replayed Rollerball. I've thus been knocked senseless by the strike of a real Rollerball glove.
    If you're in the Rollerball zone then you must add Jaws and The Warriors as as influential in your life. Shirley.
    Jaws was huge! Not quite so influential though. I have no idea who or what 'the warriors' are.
    https://youtu.be/--gdB-nnQkU

    Seminal gang film from NYC.

    Is that “No one messes with the Wongs”?

    A sudden flashback from my youth
    What was it like in the 50s?
    You’ll be pleased to know my eel is sensational. First great meal I’ve had in montrenegfo
    Phone with second PB user id just out of sight.
This discussion has been closed.