DefSec Wallace now firm favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com
DefSec Wallace now firm favourite for next PM – politicalbetting.com
The news from Downing Street this morning about Boris Johnson’s intention has led to a huge shake-up of the next prime minister betting as the chart shows.
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(Sorry
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vipera_ammodytes
Not very dangerous on a world scale, though.
(FPT, for the safety of Leon, drunkenly scrambling back to his lodgings tonight…)
UK, BallotBox Seat Estimate (polling data from @RedfieldWilton, 7th July)
🔴 Labour majority of 70 seats
🔴 Lab 360 (+158)
🔵 Con 217 (-148)
🟡 SNP 28 (-20)
🟠 Lib Dem 23 (+12)
🟢 Plaid 2 (-2)
🟢 Grn 1 (n/c)
⚪️ Oth 19 (n/c)
Seat chgs. w/ 2019 election.
https://twitter.com/ballotboxmedia/status/1545082450967203840
In my defence, I am halfway down pint three.
So what happens about public sector pay?
Do we have to wait for the Tory Party to make their mind up?
“The Godfather box set is great - you can watch one and two, and do coke off of three.” - Artie Lange
Edit - also suggests he is not 'up to something' hopefully
Who has the authority to negotiate?
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1545090107807617027
Another remarkable day and to be honest I'm still trying to process what has happened.
Johnson's "farewell speech" (the first, I fear, of many) was long on self-justification and short on contrition. Rather like Thatcher, I suspect he sees himself as a victim of treachery and of weak colleagues and will be seething internally about the injustice and the hopes and pledges of a changed Britain unrealised.
As I've said over the past few evenings, this was his life's ambition, his goal, to be Prime Minister and he connived, conspired and contrived over nearly two decades to achieve that goal.
Perhaps he came to realise he wasn't good enough for the job he always wanted - it is a supremely challenging role and very few are capable of doing the job well and fewer still for any length of time and those who take the job are nearly always diminished by it.
The truth now is he is a man who will forever live in the past tense - defined by what he was and what he did not what he could still achieve. He failed not only because he was ill-suited for the unique challenges of early 2020s political life but because for all his research he failed to understand the basics - the ends do not always justify the means and how you comport yourself in office is as important if not more important than any list of achievements whether real or imagined.
It's a trait on here those who are not members of or indeed are ill-disposed toward a political party are usually the first to jump in with opinions about who should lead that party. I will simply say it is for the Conservative Parliamentary Party and perhaps the membership to choose the next Party leader and Prime Minister and leave it at that.
As to whether Boris Johnson should stay as PM, it seems he has accepted the Party's terms but will no longer be primus inter pares.
Jacob Rees-Mogg tears into Rishi Sunak: “Rishi Sunak was not a successful Chancellor. He was a high tax Chancellor, and he was a Chancellor who was not alert to the inflationary problem."
https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1545100038581395460
(Edit: not totally sure it was Pinewood - lot's of film stuff in the family, and no before you ask my mother's just no vinyl)
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1545100342936965124
On the drive to my riverside bar I just saw another snake (dead) and a tortoise (alive). This place is fervent with life, I love it
Rijeka Crnojevika is precisely where I am. Right next to this bridge. Having some homemade white wine delivered by a shiningly beautiful Montenegrin girl
Sigh. I love travel
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rijeka_Crnojevića_bridge
You seem to have regenerated as a tremendously embittered, exceedingly angry man, spitting bile at other commenters and infuriated by virtually any subject
Are you OK? That’s a sincere question, not an attempt to provoke
Same as when people said Corbyn saw off two Conservative Prime Ministers........
(Which he didn't really - he was present, but not involved)
Whether Zahawi will be different - well, let's see, but my money's on 'no.'
I’m not sure I’ve eaten eel outside smoked eel at posh London gaffs and eel in Chinese dishes. It is from the Rijeka Crnojevika, which rolls by right underneath this tavern
But she won't. Too many MPs think she's nuts. Hunt has been bracketed (unfairly) as an arch-Remainer and the members won't wear him, so I doubt he'll win either.
I have almost zero confidence this will happen
Even if it's not, just ignore it.
He has three children. “He is a very committed family man,” one ally told the broadcaster. " (Guardian blog)
My guess is he'll go for it, but he needs to decide pretty snappily. MPs will be back in their constituencies now, and by Monday a lot of them will have been hoovered up by the teams who were already prepared.
Hunt, similarly. If he's planning to run, he's keeping very quiet about it.
Seminal gang film from NYC.
But more likely if he's looking for an overrated sex maniac with a weird way of speaking and no clue whatsoever, he'll be looking to Truss.
A sudden flashback from my youth
Wallace is I suspect the man that saves 30-40 seats. Whether that means that they’d end up on a 330 result rather than a 290 result; or a 240 result rather than a 200 result, difficult to say. Probably not a landslide winner, but may avoid being a landslide loser.
Liz does I think attract slightly unfair criticisms from time to time but I think she’s probably the least electorally appealing. If they want to have a 2 year Maggie nostalgia cosplay then a Truss leadership might make members happy, I just think it’s got by far the biggest risks of ending badly electorally.
I am marginally green on him, major green on Mordaunt, minor green on Truss, minor green on Patel, green on a few no hopers. Midsized red on Sunak, Javid, Zahawi and Hunt.
I rarely do well on leadership contests though, apart from when I was on Corbyn at 100/1.