Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
If it's Wallace, he has an extra reason to go early as his seat is abolished in the boundary review.
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
"We need longer timescales." we are not going to get them.
We are if we stop pretending we want to achieve 1.5% rather than 2%.
Masses of empty seats at the cricket as has there has been at Wimbledon.....perhaps they are charging too much for tickets! £175 for show court and £95 for ground admission for the tennis.
Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
The end. Memories of May are too fresh. 2019 was very specific circumstances.
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
Biden is pretty straight-talking for a President. He didn't like Johnson, mainly because he thought Brexit was dumb.
because it was, but while I didn't support it, it is none of his f-ing business.
I agree that any Biden intervention in the matter is unlikely to be welcomed by most British voters.
But it isn't none of his business at all. His view is he'd rather negotiate big trade deals with big trading blocs, and for American businesses to have consistency across Europe. He also wants a reasonable degree of political unity and stability across Europe given its proximity to both Russia and the Middle East. Not saying if he's right or wrong about his country's national interest (and his predecessor had a very different outlook) but it is relevant to him and his country.
The USA has a genuine strategic and economic interest in major decisions made by allies, as we do in decisions made by the USA (more in that direction of course as they are bigger). Whilst tact and diplomacy dictate that countries' leaders aren't too publicly bullish about it, it isn't being some kind of ludicrous busy-body to have a view.
Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
In six months time, we'll be looking at rolling blackouts, freezing pensioners, and petrol at god-knows-what-cost.
People haven't quite grasped the scale of the energy crisis yet.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
I really didn't like Brown, but I felt real sadness for him when he walked down the street with his young family. Although I was (at that time) a Tory voter one always could tell Brown was a decent human being. I feel very little empathy for Johnson. He is an egotist who has trashed the traditions of this country and squandered his privileges, and treated people as fools. We should not feel at all sorry for him. It is all Karma.
Nigel, your hatred for Boris is driving uou mad. Boris is a man, flawed, just like any other. The hubris-nemesis arc follows almost exactly the same trajectory as Gordon's - who also, remember, really, really wanted to PM but didn't once he got there appear to know why. He also, if we are to believe the stories, didn't treat his staff very well. Presumably not least because it's a horrible a stressful job.
I don't want Boris to be PM. But to wish every misery under the sun on him or any other British politician is just deranged.
Masses of empty seats at the cricket as has there has been at Wimbledon.....perhaps they are charging too much for tickets! £175 for show court and £95 for ground admission for the tennis.
Nah - they are all constantly refreshing pb at home. Much more entertaining...
Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
Masses of empty seats at the cricket as has there has been at Wimbledon.....perhaps they are charging too much for tickets! £175 for show court and £95 for ground admission for the tennis.
I've totally forgotten about today's match. Not that I particularly like 20/20 cricket.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
I really didn't like Brown, but I felt real sadness for him when he walked down the street with his young family. Although I was (at that time) a Tory voter one always could tell Brown was a decent human being. I feel very little empathy for Johnson. He is an egotist who has trashed the traditions of this country and squandered his privileges, and treated people as fools. We should not feel at all sorry for him. It is all Karma.
Nigel, your hatred for Boris is driving uou mad. Boris is a man, flawed, just like any other. The hubris-nemesis arc follows almost exactly the same trajectory as Gordon's - who also, remember, really, really wanted to PM but didn't once he got there appear to know why. He also, if we are to believe the stories, didn't treat his staff very well. Presumably not least because it's a horrible a stressful job.
I don't want Boris to be PM. But to wish every misery under the sun on him or any other British politician is just deranged.
I asked GPT3 to draft a statement from the US president about the resignation of the UK Prime Minister:
"It is with great sadness that I have accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. She has been a true friend and ally to the United States, and I thank her for her service.
The United Kingdom is one of our closest partners, and I know that the special relationship between our two countries will endure. I look forward to working with her successor to continue to strengthen that bond."
That second paragraph is as boilerplate as Biden's statement. He fucking hates Boris, doesn't he?
Masses of empty seats at the cricket as has there has been at Wimbledon.....perhaps they are charging too much for tickets! £175 for show court and £95 for ground admission for the tennis.
I've totally forgotten about today's match. Not that I particularly like 20/20 cricket.
I'm going to the 2020 at Trent Bridge on Sunday. I'm looking forward to it, but though I'm loathe to admit it, I'd just as soon be watching Lancashire at about 10% of the price.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.
This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
No not really. What he has been is quietly efficient and effective. Which is exactly what I would want in a Minister.
I don't like him, but I admire his professionalism.
I have something of a soft spot for him. He reminds me of Keith Joseph. He knows he is not popular and he knows he probably doesn't have what it takes for the top job - even if his ex wife used to think otherwise. But he also has a cracking brain on him and exactly the sort of attention to detail that Johnson lacks. I also get the impression he genuinely wants to get on with people across the political spectrum. A policy man rather than a leader and we could do with more of them in Parliament and in Government.
Absolutely. I've always got on well with him and found him positively interested in new ideas.
Today's local by-elections may not tell us much about the effects of the events of the last 24 hours. There is only one Con defence - in Mole Valley. There are Lab defences in Camden, Hackney, Milton Keynes, and Welwyn Hatfield. Finally a Resident defence in Epsom and Ewell and an Ind defence in Chesterfield. I believe Camden and Milton Keynes are counting tomorrow.
England: Jason Roy, Jos Buttler, Dawid Malan, Moeen Ali, Liam Livingstone, Harry Brook, Sam Curran, Chris Jordan, Tymal Mills, Reece Topley, Matt Parkinson.
Salt not getting in the team seems strange. Do England need 3 left arm seam bowlers?
Was it considered cheating to use Bairstow again ?
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
I really didn't like Brown, but I felt real sadness for him when he walked down the street with his young family. Although I was (at that time) a Tory voter one always could tell Brown was a decent human being. I feel very little empathy for Johnson. He is an egotist who has trashed the traditions of this country and squandered his privileges, and treated people as fools. We should not feel at all sorry for him. It is all Karma.
Clive James had a good line on Richard Nixon- something like "they were right to throw him down, but they weren't entirely wrong to raise him up in the first place".
That is how most political failures go- whatever the flaws, there was a point, a substantial human to go with the flaws. True of Brown, May, Major... arguably even true of Corbyn, for all he would have been a terrible PM and has a lot of culpability for where the country now is.
Johnson, like Trump, is in a different circle of Hell. They both failed hideously, with bad consequences for democracy, and in ways that were utterly predictable.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
Sure.
Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.
Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.
For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).
There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.
I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
Judging from the vox pops his core supporters are boomers in sunglasses wandering around provincial high streets during the daytime.
WHY in hell should The Caretaker be allowed ANY privileges or whatever that are NOT expressly provided for by statute law? That can and should be changed pronto to tighten the leash if need be.
Screw what's customary, traditional, expected - BJx2 has forfeited ANY right to such consideration.
Comments
But it isn't none of his business at all. His view is he'd rather negotiate big trade deals with big trading blocs, and for American businesses to have consistency across Europe. He also wants a reasonable degree of political unity and stability across Europe given its proximity to both Russia and the Middle East. Not saying if he's right or wrong about his country's national interest (and his predecessor had a very different outlook) but it is relevant to him and his country.
The USA has a genuine strategic and economic interest in major decisions made by allies, as we do in decisions made by the USA (more in that direction of course as they are bigger). Whilst tact and diplomacy dictate that countries' leaders aren't too publicly bullish about it, it isn't being some kind of ludicrous busy-body to have a view.
People haven't quite grasped the scale of the energy crisis yet.
I don't want Boris to be PM. But to wish every misery under the sun on him or any other British politician is just deranged.
"It is with great sadness that I have accepted the resignation of Prime Minister Theresa May. She has been a true friend and ally to the United States, and I thank her for her service.
The United Kingdom is one of our closest partners, and I know that the special relationship between our two countries will endure. I look forward to working with her successor to continue to strengthen that bond."
That second paragraph is as boilerplate as Biden's statement. He fucking hates Boris, doesn't he?
Would someone care to share the best threads to read on all this? Will read on the plane home for the laughs.
I'm completely lost - got consecutive BBC alerts saying Zahawi as Chancellor, then calling to resign? Why isn't he a top candidate for next PM?
International bunch of climbers all baffled by our constitution. I'm trying to explain, but failing.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vipera_ammodytes
Not very dangerous on a world scale, though.
limping on in a caretaker role
That is how most political failures go- whatever the flaws, there was a point, a substantial human to go with the flaws. True of Brown, May, Major... arguably even true of Corbyn, for all he would have been a terrible PM and has a lot of culpability for where the country now is.
Johnson, like Trump, is in a different circle of Hell. They both failed hideously, with bad consequences for democracy, and in ways that were utterly predictable.
Nicola Sturgeon has seen out three Tory prime ministers.