- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Disagree. With a big enough constituency of MPs it will be about Ukraine and our resilience to open economic warfare with Russia this winter. Which means we may not (should not) get to the members stage.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
I am a bit of a softy really, so I felt a bit sorry for him for a nanosecond and then snapped out of it and laughed and laughed. Couldn't happen to a nicer man!
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
How’s that reflected in the polling about people’s priorities?
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
Labour 43% (+2) Conservative 31% (-4) Liberal Democrat 12% (+1) Green 7% (+2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Reform UK 2% (-4) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 3 July
I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
I’m not at all convinced that’s even true support. More likely people are presented with “Reform” and think, “Reform? Well, the rest of them are shit…”
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
I am a bit of a softy really, so I felt a bit sorry for him for a nanosecond and then snapped out of it and laughed and laughed. Couldn't happen to a nicer man!
I'm sad he didn't slip on the kerb and impale his hand on the railing
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Need to see others but given they are coming off a three month high of 35 (bar one outlier) on Monday with R and W its as good as theyd expect after the worst 72 hours since Black Wednesday or Mays deal catastrophe for the party.
Im increasingly inclined to a 38/38/14/SNP 4 GE result 2% swing either way
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Disagree. With a big enough constituency of MPs it will be about Ukraine and our resilience to open economic warfare with Russia this winter. Which means we may not (should not) get to the members stage.
One can build an economic security thesis that unites that with a step back from net zero, a boost to defence, tax cuts, and some red meat for the red wall.
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
Yes, I'm not saying it's not a real thing. I'm just saying don't get excited about any opinion at all until it goes over the 5% threshold. 1 in 20 people is batshit insane and will think anything you could imagine and plenty of things you hope to never imagine.
Labour 43% (+2) Conservative 31% (-4) Liberal Democrat 12% (+1) Green 7% (+2) Scottish National Party 3% (–) Reform UK 2% (-4) Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 3 July
I think they'd bank that all day long given the chaos of the last 72 hours
Weird Reform down so much off the back of the Tory fall. You would have thought they would have picked up votes.
I’m not at all convinced that’s even true support. More likely people are presented with “Reform” and think, “Reform? Well, the rest of them are shit…”
Do R&W cue party names? As you say, I'm not totally convinced most people know who Reform UK actually are. Clearly, people here do and some of their poll will be "real". But I do wonder if a lot of it is essentially noise.
I mean, they've never stood under that name in a General Election and, of the 20,000 principal authority councillors in the UK, they have seven. The Greens - who they often poll fairly close to - have well over 500, and people clearly know who they are and broadly what they are about even if they are weak in large parts of the country. Do Reform UK meaningfully have ANY brand to speak of?
Would be interesting to know what the evidence is, and how a relatively generic made-up name would poll (e.g. Constitution Party, Modernity Party etc).
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Need to see others but given they are coming off a three month high of 35 (bar one outlier) on Monday with R and W its as good as theyd expect after the worst 72 hours since Black Wednesday or Mays deal catastrophe for the party.
Im increasingly inclined to a 38/38/14/SNP 4 GE result 2% swing either way
Don’t disagree. I still think the Tories squeak it with a half decent leader, SNP Coalition fear, and incumbency benefits. The time after they clearly lose power for at least 10-15 years.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
Polar bears, bears, alligators, and the danger of jumping in to what you thought was a warm Yellowstone pool and finding it is a boiling one.
I did that at Turkana in Kenya, didn't realise a pool was volcanically heated, jumped in, exquisitely terrifying couple of seconds when you wonder if your flesh is going to be boiled off your bones.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
The correct answer is Gove, but I doubt any of the contenders would trust him in the job.
This is a bit like the Arsenal fans wondering why they don't give Jack Wilshere another go. Gove was overrated in the first place, seems to have had/be having a breakdown since and has been anonymous in all his recent roles.
No not really. What he has been is quietly efficient and effective. Which is exactly what I would want in a Minister.
I don't like him, but I admire his professionalism.
I have something of a soft spot for him. He reminds me of Keith Joseph. He knows he is not popular and he knows he probably doesn't have what it takes for the top job - even if his ex wife used to think otherwise. But he also has a cracking brain on him and exactly the sort of attention to detail that Johnson lacks. I also get the impression he genuinely wants to get on with people across the political spectrum. A policy man rather than a leader and we could do with more of them in Parliament and in Government.
My opinion on Michael Gove is simply based on this logic -
Since Boris Johnson went out of his way to boot him out of the government, Gove MUST be a member of the caretaker government.
Solely for purpose of rubbing Big Dog's nose in his own mess, as a lesson that NEXT time he shits on Her Majesty's carpet, he gets sent to "the farm".
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
One nugget in Redfield..... As opposed to his YouGov bounce, Rishis figures took a dive to -15 following his quitting...... And Bozo is, unsurprisingly at a rock bottom -31
We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.
If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.
This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.
Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway. That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
I really didn't like Brown, but I felt real sadness for him when he walked down the street with his young family. Although I was (at that time) a Tory voter one always could tell Brown was a decent human being. I feel very little empathy for Johnson. He is an egotist who has trashed the traditions of this country and squandered his privileges, and treated people as fools. We should not feel at all sorry for him. It is all Karma.
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Perhaps more than we'd think. I've heard people say it is not fair Boris taking the fall for Pincher's offences. Partygate had more cut-through to the general public sfaict. It is ministers and MPs who got fed up of day after day being sent out to defend the Prime Minister with lies that unravelled inside 24 hours.
Most people aren't massively partisan. Most people can see the human beneath the politician. I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case. I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.
If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.
This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.
Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway. That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
Hubris is alive and well...
Well, given I'm not a Labour voter and I'm not saying that it's always going to be this way, no, not at all. I'm just telling you that you lot have fucked it so badly that the other lot are now hogging the centre ground. You can win it back but by fuck you've got some grovelling to do.
WHY in hell should The Caretaker be allowed ANY privileges or whatever that are NOT expressly provided for by statute law? That can and should be changed pronto to tighten the leash if need be.
Screw what's customary, traditional, expected - BJx2 has forfeited ANY right to such consideration.
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
No their policies for achieving their goals are an elite, urban, fiction.
How many protests are there outside the embassies of the people doing the polluting? China, India, America? How much lobbying of their politicians? How much boycotting of their products?
No lets target ordinary working class brits we despise anyway because they don;t have a gender studies degree....
If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
BBC: Grant Shapps seriously considering a leadership bid.
Oh god we're going to have like 20 different non-entities coming forward to waste there and our time again aren't we?
Sam Gyimah has entered the chat
Part of it is to raise their profile just so they can be considered for Cabinet when the real winner comes through.
These days though, with the quality of a lot of them, they actually are deluded enough to believe it should be them.
Looking at the losers last time around:
Hunt - offered a job, didn't take it Gove - Cabinet office Javid - Chancellor Stewart - no job Raab - FCA Hancock - Health Leadsom - Business Harper- no job McVey - Housing (attending cabinet)
England: Jason Roy, Jos Buttler, Dawid Malan, Moeen Ali, Liam Livingstone, Harry Brook, Sam Curran, Chris Jordan, Tymal Mills, Reece Topley, Matt Parkinson.
Salt not getting in the team seems strange. Do England need 3 left arm seam bowlers?
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
Sure.
Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.
Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.
For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).
There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.
I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This morning? If so that’s awesome for the Tories.
Anecdote - a Tory/LD switcher who I know says she feels sorry for poor Boris. I wonder how widespread that feeling is?
Rule of thumb: think of some unimaginably mad opinion, and ask twenty random people about it. One of them will agree. That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
The BBC found a number of people feeling sorry for Johnson in Chichester and Cheltenham.
Sure.
Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.
Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.
For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).
There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.
I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
Judging from the vox pops his core supporters are boomers in sunglasses wandering around provincial high streets during the daytime.
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
Ok, so no definite answer - just think very hard, and "probably" build hundreds of something no community wants within a few hundred kilometres, but that tickles the right-wing bloke mega-engineering fetish. (Still might be necessary of course, but not 100% of the solution.)
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
We say Labour should be further ahead but if we are to compare polls from around 1997 the Greens weren't polling anything like they were now.
If the parties were similar to how they were then, Labour would be polling about 50 points - and voila, 20 points ahead.
This is the best Labour will do whilst the Greens remain relatively popular, they will get squeezed in any GE so I suspect Labour's vote is actually 2-3 points higher.
Yeah, but Labour shouldn't be leaking tons of votes to the Greens if they were any good.
Yeah, they probably should. Labour have taken over the centre ground. That's always going to upset the left, some of who will pretend they're going to vote Green next time. And hey, some of them really will vote Green. If there's a candidate. Half of them will probably fall in line and vote Labour anyway. That polling is apocalyptic for the Tories. Boris has nuked the party.
Hubris is alive and well...
Well, given I'm not a Labour voter and I'm not saying that it's always going to be this way, no, not at all. I'm just telling you that you lot have fucked it so badly that the other lot are now hogging the centre ground. You can win it back but by fuck you've got some grovelling to do.
If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
If my googling on pilots rest time between flights is correct, Truss cannot take off from Bali until 22.40 UTC this evening (and assuming they allow a take off before 06.00 local) which means back in Stansted around 15.40 tomorrow afternoon…..back in Westminster around 17.00…..after everyone has buggered off for the weekend….
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?
Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
They should have more faith in the voting public. Maggies downfall and then Tory Sleaze contaminated the Tory brand for over 10 years.
This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
Depends who they choose. I think it shouldn't take too long to detox. On the other hand if they choose some headbanging Brexiteer they are fecked.
The ERG, Boris's anti-EU brigade and the blue kippers are all still in the party. Expect a Brexiteer. Liz Truss need not bother showing up...
I am not so sure. I think the headbangers might get re-marginalised. We'll see
I agree. I’m not a Tory, and that might make my opinion worthless, but it seems to me that that a red-wall/blue-wall moderate (e.g. Hunt) “dream ticket” beats the left over ERG. 2019 changed the balance.
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?
Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
It doesn't beat MR's trashing by republicans in his own back yard at the Utah convention.
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?
Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
I hope @Heathener, so critical of my complacency, is pleased that I have just been swimming HERE
Utterly Edenic. A river to myself. The valley teems with vivid birdlife, dipping and rolling in joyous loops
Europe: the only continent where you can do that in the absolute certainty of not losing a limb or some genitals or all of you to a croc or hippo or anaconda or piranha
North America surely? In most of it. But you might get shot. Also it rarely looks like this in these perfect temperatures
The Wels (giant catfish) of the Danube basin is occasionally willing to have a munch. Though some of the munchees are fishermen which have been so unkind as to try and catch it. Not always, though:
Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
JUST IN: @POTUS Biden statement on @BorisJohnson’os resignation: “the special relationship between our people remains strong and enduring. I look forward to continuing our close cooperation with the government of the United Kingdom, as well as our Allies and partners…”
This was after he has stopped pissing himself laughing. Note no regrets about no longer having to deal with the Clown
Has Mitt Romney issued a statement yet?
Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
Oh yes. I remember that: 'There's some guy called Mitt Romney...'
- Brexit but with new unicorns - Tax cuts - Protecting property prices - A smattering of send-em-back rhetoric - Avoiding anything that might upset NIMBYs or pensioners
Getting rid of hard target of 2050 at all costs for net zero is above all of those, I reckon.
Go ahead that would hand a lot of the Green vote to Labour at the next election....
From a Tory point of view why should that matter? They were never going to vote Tory anyway and the Green polling always flatters to deceive.
IF the tories do not give up Net zero by 2050 then in 2024 they will be campaigning on a give up your boiler and give up your car ticket. On a stop eating meat and start eating insects ticket. On a rolling blackouts ticket and an energy rationing ticket. On a getting poorer? get used to it ticket.
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
Your solution is presumably that climate change is an elite, urban, elite, urban, multiracial, elite fiction.
I don't believe there is any possibility of the current net Zero plans of this country and most of the West being implemented as they stand. They are totally unrealistic and couldn't even be imposed by a military dictatorship never mind democratically elected governments. We need more critical thinking and engineering input to reset the plans, longer timescales and probably a massive nuclear programme.
"We need longer timescales." we are not going to get them.
Before there is a new thread (I assume it's getting published now, it always does when I post!).
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?
The end. Memories of May are too fresh. 2019 was very specific circumstances.
Comments
That's your baseline for views that can only be the result of Foaming Dog Fever. If you find more than 5% who hold that view, you're onto a real phenomenon.
Im increasingly inclined to a 38/38/14/SNP 4 GE result 2% swing either way
I mean, they've never stood under that name in a General Election and, of the 20,000 principal authority councillors in the UK, they have seven. The Greens - who they often poll fairly close to - have well over 500, and people clearly know who they are and broadly what they are about even if they are weak in large parts of the country. Do Reform UK meaningfully have ANY brand to speak of?
Would be interesting to know what the evidence is, and how a relatively generic made-up name would poll (e.g. Constitution Party, Modernity Party etc).
I did that at Turkana in Kenya, didn't realise a pool was volcanically heated, jumped in, exquisitely terrifying couple of seconds when you wonder if your flesh is going to be boiled off your bones.
I felt very sorry for Boris when the suggestion was that Carrie had left him. Happily that appears not to be the case.
I also felt very sorry for Gordon Brown, who I have liked less than any other PM, both with bigoted-womangate and when he and his family finally left No. 10.
Since Boris Johnson went out of his way to boot him out of the government, Gove MUST be a member of the caretaker government.
Solely for purpose of rubbing Big Dog's nose in his own mess, as a lesson that NEXT time he shits on Her Majesty's carpet, he gets sent to "the farm".
As a remainer I am of course gutted by the result. But it is now my duty to make sure The UK thrives in the world and stays together.
Just a little bit of news going on today then lol!
https://www.thelocal.de/20160825/6-foot-catfish-attacks-woman-in-bavarian-lake/
And Leon assumes, incorrectly, that pacus and the like have not been introduced:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/men-in-sweden-warned-after-sighting-of-testicleeating-fish-8755664.html
That might be OK for metro liberals in the cities. But tories voters? gargantuan bloodbath.
All the governments pedalling this are running into trouble. Biden is as popular as a f*rt in a space suit even though energy prices there are well below ours. Farmer protests are spreading like wildfire from Netherlands to Italy and Poland. Macron is hobled and the far right is rising.
https://edition.cnn.com/2013/08/10/world/europe/scandanavia-swim-warning
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1545084643812204545
As opposed to his YouGov bounce, Rishis figures took a dive to -15 following his quitting......
And Bozo is, unsurprisingly at a rock bottom -31
More likely he's hoping to raise his profile in the hope of being kept on - which as a minister who has misled the House, he should not be.
You can win it back but by fuck you've got some grovelling to do.
These days though, with the quality of a lot of them, they actually are deluded enough to believe it should be them.
If so you would surely have to make whichever of them steps forward favourite.
WHY in hell should The Caretaker be allowed ANY privileges or whatever that are NOT expressly provided for by statute law? That can and should be changed pronto to tighten the leash if need be.
Screw what's customary, traditional, expected - BJx2 has forfeited ANY right to such consideration.
How many protests are there outside the embassies of the people doing the polluting? China, India, America? How much lobbying of their politicians? How much boycotting of their products?
No lets target ordinary working class brits we despise anyway because they don;t have a gender studies degree....
Hunt - offered a job, didn't take it
Gove - Cabinet office
Javid - Chancellor
Stewart - no job
Raab - FCA
Hancock - Health
Leadsom - Business
Harper- no job
McVey - Housing (attending cabinet)
Salt not getting in the team seems strange. Do England need 3 left arm seam bowlers?
Johnson's Conservatives won 58% of the vote in 2019 in Chichester and 48% in Cheltenham. Support for the Conservative Party will have fallen quite a bit since then, and support for Johnson even more. But it's not going to be hard to find people for a vox pop who liked him in 2019, like him now, and are sorry he's leaving.
Even in a by-election like Tiverton and Honiton, with a huge anti-Tory swing and reduced turnout, 16k voted Tory, which is only a little under half the number in 2019, and a lot of people in absolute terms and as a percentage (not far short of 40%). It was abysmal given the starting point... but you're not going to struggle to find Conservatives.
For comparison, John Major went from 42% of the vote in 1992 to just under 31% in 1997. It was a disaster for the Conservatives, but it means around three-quarters of 1992 supporters stuck with him (roughly - I know turnout changes, there's churn, and some people move to the great electoral roll in the sky etc).
There are also people who aren't politically engaged and just say "well, he's lost his job - that's sad for him and I sympathise". Which is quite a nice way to be, I suppose.
I'm always hugely sceptical about TV/radio vox pops for that reason. Even if a by-election or whatever is apocalyptic for the incumbent party, about one in three of the people the journo talks to will be supporting them.
https://twitter.com/edokeefe/status/1545084730156146688
This Tory Party will be no different, especially when they elect another vacuous fruitcake into No.10
https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1545033843480084482?t=MKehMayw4oyFRTCCynlQFA&s=19
Javid or Sunak look best placed
A campaign that actually accepts Brexit has happened and doesn’t want continual conflict with the EU would be bad news for the opposition .
The Tories can lose quite a lot of their new former Red Wall seats and still get a decent majority as long they keep their southern seats.
aww
CNN poll yesterday 10% economy going in right direction 88% wrong.
He's more fucked than a horny MP
Must admit, BJ's trashing of MR was one of few times me & Big Dog thought alike. Though of course yours truly was NOT running for Mayor of London so milking Romney's goofy gaffe for all it was worth.
On the climb back to my cabin just now i saw a biiig snake. So maybe not so safe
I've longed believed that an incoming PM in this manner should hold a GE within six months to take advantage of a bounce in the polls. Excepting MacMillian, no incoming party leader has won more seats at the next GE if they've left it more than 6 months (Boris won seats, but his GE was five months after his appointment).
So..... do we think the next Prime Minister will hold a GE, either in October or (possibly) next May; or will they hold on till the death as they almost always do?