For those with short memories… – politicalbetting.com

System · July 2022

For those with short memories… – politicalbetting.com

On Channel 4 news Jacob Rees-Mogg referred to Lord Salisbury as an example of a PM who lost a Chancellor and went onto remain for PM as years. This de haut en bas history nugget was dismissed by Sir Bob Neill who tartly observed that voters did not care about a government from 120 years ago. But before Labour get too self-righteous about the awful culture Boris has presided over, it is worth remembering that back in 2018 retired judge, Dame Laura Cox wrote a withering report about the culture in the House of Commons and how MPs of all parties treated their staff. It can be read here and deals specifically with sexual harassment.

Read the full story here

swing_voter · July 2022

First.... like Javid

JACK_W · July 2022

Second ... out of the Cabinet like Sunak.

Andy_JS · July 2022

Johnson is two days short of Neville Chamberlain's time in office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_prime_ministers_of_the_United_Kingdom_by_length_of_tenure

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?

Pulpstar · July 2022

Poop poop !

pigeon · July 2022

When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.

rcs1000 · July 2022

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?

Sure: how about Tony Blair?

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.

It is probably even worse than it looks because many of these people will be tied into regular payments for television, phones, internet and other paraphernalia of modern life. It is no surprise loan sharks are flourishing:-

The loan sharks charging 100,000% interest: We join the police as they hunt down violent and illegal lenders exploiting the cost-of-living crisis
Scores of households are turning to cards and loans to cope with soaring bills
But an estimated 1.08 million people are borrowing money from illegal lenders
Many are struggling, vulnerable and unable to get a loan or card from a bank
Crooks often charge victims extortionate interest rates of more than 100,000%
Some criminals threaten physical or even sexual violence if payments are missed
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cardsloans/article-10983803/We-join-police-hunt-loan-sharks-charging-100-000-interest.html

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

PMQs today.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

rcs1000 said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?
Sure: how about Tony Blair?

I have long had a vague plan to list all the times Winston Churchill was bailed out by his rich mates, but I fear Boris will have fallen before I get round to it.

Nigelb · July 2022

Will Parliament and its MPs change even after Boris has gone?

There’s only one way to find out.

Though I suspect not much will change until this Parliament is gone. Boris’ immediate replacement will be one of his enablers for many years.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Boris Johnson Exit Year - best prices

2022 1/7
2023 9/1
2024 or later 10/1

StuartDickson · July 2022

Outcome next UK GE

NOM 1.75
Con Maj 3.75
Lab Maj 4.75

StuartDickson · July 2022

Boris Johnson to not be Tory leader at next UK GE 1.05
Boris Johnson to be Tory leader at next UK GE 3.94

Pulpstar · July 2022

Ftse just over 7000 and sub 1.20 to usd.
In a world of headwinds, we're full on in the storm

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

Rishi's NIC threshold rise kicks in today, somewhat ironically.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Pulpstar said:
Ftse just over 7000 and sub 1.20 to usd.
In a world of headwinds, we're full on in the storm

Luckily membership of one of the largest free-trade areas in the world will remove the sting from the tail.

Oh!

StuartDickson · July 2022

‘Number of pubs in England and Wales falls to record low’

The poor buggers can’t even resort to the drink.

Morris_Dancer · July 2022

Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).

Edited extra bit: put a tiny sum on Javid at 13.

StuartDickson · July 2022

‘Children in England ‘increasingly worried about impact of cost of living’’

“[Last year] children were talking about that far more in relation to their parents. So what children talked about was mum’s job, dad’s job, not being able to buy things. And there was quite a profound strand on that,” she said.

“This time [in 2022] it’s far clearer. There is a real concern coming now from children themselves about cost of living. They’re hearing it; they’re talking about it.”

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jul/05/children-in-england-increasingly-worried-about-impact-of-cost-of-living

IanB2 · July 2022

Last nights Newsnight contains some scathing commentary on the PM.

Heathener · July 2022

Not sure this was the right thread for today tbh.

Things are moving quickly now in Westminster.

swing_voter · July 2022

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.

driving around the M60 not so long ago I was struck by the sheer number of costly cars.... BMWs, VWs other top spec brands.... not sure how it sits with the above.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).

This Wallace?

‘Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms 10,000 troop cut to the size of the British Army’

PJH · July 2022

On holiday in Spain, and haven't logged in or followed the news at all for nearly 48 hours. It seems I haven't missed much! 😁

Difficult to see how Johson survives for long but I'm sure he'll find a way.

But just as importantly, I see England won the Test, which looked extremely unlikely when I went offline. I must do it more often...

StuartDickson · July 2022

swing_voter said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
driving around the M60 not so long ago I was struck by the sheer number of costly cars.... BMWs, VWs other top spec brands.... not sure how it sits with the above.

It’s a perfect fit: people have become accustomed to living beyond their means. They are about to get an extremely harsh lesson in the merits of frugality.

Morris_Dancer · July 2022

Mr. Dickson, and that terrible decision is with him as Defence Secretary. You think a Nadine Dorries or similar would be better for Defence?

noneoftheabove · July 2022

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.

It will be 80% of Lloyds customers have less than £500 with Lloyds, rather than £500 in total.

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk

This has the 75th percentile average savings at £58,500, and the 25th percentile at £2,100.

That is still a quarter of people who will run out of money within a year down to increased cost of living, but nothing like 80% of people.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Dickson, and that terrible decision is with him as Defence Secretary. You think a Nadine Dorries or similar would be better for Defence?

I think the Conservatives need a period in opposition. About a century will do.

PR Mr Starmer. PR.

StuartDickson · July 2022

noneoftheabove said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
It will be 80% of Lloyds customers have less than £500 with Lloyds, rather than £500 in total.

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk

This has the 75th percentile average savings at £58,500, and the 25th percentile at £2,100.

That is still a quarter of people who will run out of money within a year down to increased cost of living, but nothing like 80% of people.

So, only a quarter of the population will be participating in the food riots.

Phew! What a relief.

Heathener · July 2022

Two weeks today until the summer recess. Johnson has 14-days to survive (until the next inevitable crisis in the autumn).

14 days for the parliamentary Conservative Party to get their act together and do the deed. The summer recess would be perfect time for leadership hustings whilst a deputy deputes. If the current executive of the 1922 had any common sense they wouldn't wait for the executive elections, they would vote today to change the VONC rule and hold a vote on Monday.

Johnson would then face the weekend deciding whether to face the ignominy of certain defeat or resign.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

swing_voter said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
driving around the M60 not so long ago I was struck by the sheer number of costly cars.... BMWs, VWs other top spec brands.... not sure how it sits with the above.

Four fifths of people aren't on the M60 (wherever that is — ETA it is Manchester's equivalent of the M25, or vice versa for northerners)? A lot of cars are leased rather than bought new, and a lot of used cars are also financed. As per my earlier post, a lot of people will be stuffed if they lose their jobs because they are committed to monthly payments from mortgages and cars through to phone and Netflix.

StuartDickson · July 2022

PJH said:
On holiday in Spain, and haven't logged in or followed the news at all for nearly 48 hours. It seems I haven't missed much! 😁

Difficult to see how Johson survives for long but I'm sure he'll find a way.

But just as importantly, I see England won the Test, which looked extremely unlikely when I went offline. I must do it more often...

Indeed. One of England’s finest moments.

‘Edgbaston to investigate racist abuse of Indian supporters during England Test’
- Fans said to be in tears after ‘worst abuse ever experienced’
- Stewards allegedly tell those who reported abuse to ‘sit down’

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/jul/04/cricket-alex-lees-england-india-record-run-chase-edgbaston

Taz · July 2022

IanB2 said:
Last nights Newsnight contains some scathing commentary on the PM.

Hardly a shock given it’s Newsnight.

Heathener · July 2022

But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.

pigeon · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Dickson, and that terrible decision is with him as Defence Secretary. You think a Nadine Dorries or similar would be better for Defence?
I think the Conservatives need a period in opposition. About a century will do.

PR Mr Starmer. PR.

That's why the best outcome to the next election is one that leaves Labour as weak as possible, without the bloody Tories actually winning it again.

If Labour is miles short of a majority, doubts its ability ever to win one again, has a large and potentially resurgent Conservative Opposition breathing down its neck, and ends up reliant on both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats, then they might be persuaded to yield.

The likelihood of Labour abandoning FPTP if it wins outright is nil.

StuartDickson · July 2022

DecrepiterJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
driving around the M60 not so long ago I was struck by the sheer number of costly cars.... BMWs, VWs other top spec brands.... not sure how it sits with the above.
Four fifths of people aren't on the M60 (wherever that is — ETA it is Manchester's equivalent of the M25, or vice versa for northerners)? A lot of cars are leased rather than bought new, and a lot of used cars are also financed. As per my earlier post, a lot of people will be stuffed if they lose their jobs because they are committed to monthly payments from mortgages and cars through to phone and Netflix.

Netflix. There’s an expense just begging to be excised.

Other candidates for low-hanging expenses? Invest accordingly.

Taz · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

swing_voter said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
driving around the M60 not so long ago I was struck by the sheer number of costly cars.... BMWs, VWs other top spec brands.... not sure how it sits with the above.
Four fifths of people aren't on the M60 (wherever that is — ETA it is Manchester's equivalent of the M25, or vice versa for northerners)? A lot of cars are leased rather than bought new, and a lot of used cars are also financed. As per my earlier post, a lot of people will be stuffed if they lose their jobs because they are committed to monthly payments from mortgages and cars through to phone and Netflix.
Netflix. There’s an expense just begging to be excised.

Other candidates for low-hanging expenses? Invest accordingly.

Thank you for this post.

I have been discussing canning Netflix with my wife. I will cancel it today.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.

Please explain how Scottish Labour exceed 20 seats? Cos without that then Starmer is dependent on the Lib Dems sweeping the Home Counties, and I can’t see that either.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

noneoftheabove said:

pigeon said:
When it comes to it, MPs of whatever party, no matter how high-minded they can be when it’s their opponents in trouble, will overlook pretty much anything if they can justify it in pursuit of a higher cause (usually their job) and the polls have not turned against them. And, in truth, it’s only the last issue which really matters to them. Pincher’s groping hands, Boris’s parties and his repeated lies would be mere footnotes if the Tories were still consistently ahead in the polls.

And Johnson would already be gone if the Tories were 20% adrift of Labour rather than averaging more like 6-7%. Small wonder if Mr & Mrs Average end up regarding politics and its practitioners as entirely devoid of ethics and principle. The evidence against them is overwhelming.

Meanwhile, in other news, most of the British population is now living hand-to-mouth, or something very close to it:

Most Lloyds Bank customers have less than £500 of savings in their accounts, its chief executive said.

The head of the UK's biggest high street bank told the BBC: "80% of individuals and UK customers and families have less than £500 pounds worth of savings in their current account and their savings account."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62057301

Frankly, the more I think about this, the more astonishing it becomes. The customer base of Lloyds must be broadly representative of the general population. I might've guessed that about a third of us had nothing or next to nothing in the bank, but four-fifths?!?! Anybody in this position who finds themselves out of a job, or with unexpected bills to settle, is immediately going to have to resort to debt - if they've not already maxed out their capacity to do so. Those of working age who end up unemployed, or having to take a new job with a substantial cut in income, will be staring almost immediately down the barrel of heat or eat dilemmas or being slung out onto the street.

Essentially, a finding like this implies that most of the country - especially all those still paying rent or a mortgage - is now part of the precariat. Any significant spike in unemployment and a lot of these people will be sunk.
It will be 80% of Lloyds customers have less than £500 with Lloyds, rather than £500 in total.

https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk

This has the 75th percentile average savings at £58,500, and the 25th percentile at £2,100.

That is still a quarter of people who will run out of money within a year down to increased cost of living, but nothing like 80% of people.

Looking at that site's median rather than average (mean, which is skewed by the very rich) figures by age, for individuals rather than households, and only financial rather than physical wealth, finds most age groups below £3,000.
https://www.nimblefins.co.uk/savings-accounts/average-household-savings-uk#wealthbyage

StuartDickson · July 2022

Heathener said:
Two weeks today until the summer recess. Johnson has 14-days to survive (until the next inevitable crisis in the autumn).

14 days for the parliamentary Conservative Party to get their act together and do the deed. The summer recess would be perfect time for leadership hustings whilst a deputy deputes. If the current executive of the 1922 had any common sense they wouldn't wait for the executive elections, they would vote today to change the VONC rule and hold a vote on Monday.

Johnson would then face the weekend deciding whether to face the ignominy of certain defeat or resign.

If De Pfeffel was worried about ignominy he’d have departed long ago.

The man is, quite literally, shameless.

Scott_xP · July 2022

Morning,

The Pm fights on, after two bombshell resignations.

No10 sources say Sajid Javid warned the PM he would quit but Rishi Sunak didn’t

And that the PM feels “liberated” to go for growth - as well tax cuts - with a chancellor “who is an entrepreneur not a banker”.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544560234781462529

Unless the '22 get their act together we are so screwed

Heathener · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
Morning,

The Pm fights on, after two bombshell resignations.

No10 sources say Sajid Javid warned the PM he would quit but Rishi Sunak didn’t

And that the PM feels “liberated” to go for growth - as well tax cuts - with a chancellor “who is an entrepreneur not a banker”.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544560234781462529

Unless the '22 get their act together we are so screwed

Yep. Boris is about to apply the same approach to his personal spending to the British economy. The Daily Express may love it but Boris is someone who is on the verge of bankruptcy and who borrows from one credit card to 'pay off' another.

He won't care as long as it keeps him in office for a bit longer.

StuartDickson · July 2022

‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)

Jonathan · July 2022

I’m not confident that if the 1922 ran another vote the outcome would be any different.

tlg86 · July 2022

Octordle in 10. My life is complete:

Daily Octordle #163
6️⃣8️⃣
3️⃣7️⃣
5️⃣4️⃣
9️⃣🔟
Score: 52
octordle.com

StuartDickson · July 2022

Jonathan said:
I’m not confident that if the 1922 ran another vote the outcome would be any different.

Well, quite.

Invertebrates don’t evolve spines quickly.

IanB2 · July 2022

Tory MPs who want the liar king deposed surely won't turn up to PMQs?

DavidL · July 2022

DecrepiterJohnL said:
PMQs today.

Does that not assume we have a PM?

Jonathan · July 2022

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)

The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.

Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

DavidL said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
PMQs today.
Does that not assume we have a PM?

We might not have a LotO. Surely CCHQ can rustle up a SpAd to phone Starmer and put on a Durham accent.

Scott_xP · July 2022

Daniel Kawczynski says Johnson is stronger now.
Interesting take from that renowned political genius.
https://twitter.com/stephenpollard/status/1544563031845257219

Heathener · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.
Please explain how Scottish Labour exceed 20 seats? Cos without that then Starmer is dependent on the Lib Dems sweeping the Home Counties, and I can’t see that either.

You've raised two different aspects.

First, I certainly see the LibDems making massive inroads in southern Britain. I told everyone on here that they were going to win Woking at the locals and wasn't heeded. There's a huge yellow movement in Surrey. Aside from my anecfactuals I am sure you saw the YouGov poll which showed precisely that: that the Conservatives are set to lose at least 24 seats in the south to the LibDems.

24. That's HUGE.

Secondly, as for Labour, there is clearly growing support for Labour in Scotland. Perhaps not seismic but nonetheless interesting. In addition, I can see the red wall crumbling now to Labour. A large number of seats going from blue to red.

You have been a little strident in suggesting Labour cannot win next time outright. I think you may turn out to be right but that the view should be tempered because it's no longer as impossible as it seemed. Far from it.

Jonathan · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.

Nah, it’s the snp and the Tories that have the symbiotic relationship. Both nationalists. The SNP gave us Thatcher. They feed off mutual animosity. Both need to go.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.

SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.

Roger · July 2022

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?

Does wallpaper count? I'm not sure I understand the point of the header or if I do I can't see why it has any relevance to the strange circumstances of today. Is it saying its always been like this? If so I couldn't agree less. That's what makes it so tawdry.

DavidL · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).
This Wallace?

‘Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms 10,000 troop cut to the size of the British Army’

This decision really has to be looked at again and reversed. As it is the UK will not be able to mobilise the units we have promised NATO for enhanced readiness for any period of time.

Scott_xP · July 2022

Jonathan said:
Nah, it’s the snp and the Tories that have the symbiotic relationship. Both nationalists. The SNP gave us Thatcher. They feed off mutual animosity. Both need to go.

Amazing. Alyn Smith just said the quiet part out loud. The SNP doesn’t want a general election. It “enjoys” Tory Government at Westminster, and wants it to continue. https://twitter.com/staylorish/status/1544417970130149381/video/1

Jonathan · July 2022

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.

English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.

IanB2 · July 2022

Roger said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?
Does wallpaper count? I'm not sure I understand the point of the header or if I do I can't see why it has any relevance to the strange circumstances of today. Is it saying its always been like this? If so I couldn't agree less. That's what makes it so tawdry.

We seem to have an off-topic lead on a very significant political day.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

Heathener said:

Scott_xP said:
Morning,

The Pm fights on, after two bombshell resignations.

No10 sources say Sajid Javid warned the PM he would quit but Rishi Sunak didn’t

And that the PM feels “liberated” to go for growth - as well tax cuts - with a chancellor “who is an entrepreneur not a banker”.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544560234781462529

Unless the '22 get their act together we are so screwed
Yep. Boris is about to apply the same approach to his personal spending to the British economy. The Daily Express may love it but Boris is someone who is on the verge of bankruptcy and who borrows from one credit card to 'pay off' another.

He won't care as long as it keeps him in office for a bit longer.

Boris has always been anti-austerity and pro-public investment, as any Thatcherite backbencher who'd bothered to read the (pre-Covid) 2019 manifesto might have noticed.

Scott_xP · July 2022

Speaking to Tory MPs last night, the feeling was that Zahwai may have won the battle to be chancellor but in taking the job may have trashed his chances of becoming leader
https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1544564735697453056

StuartDickson · July 2022

British citizens in Northern Ireland may have to show their passports to get back into Britain

“Even Tony Blair, the last Labour leader ever to be elected, has said that the Protocol is not compatible with the Good Friday Agreement.
“Something has to go because it breaks article six in the acts of the union, it takes Northern Ireland out of that trading block inside the UK.
“It also calls into account any constitutional issues around the border and most of all, in amongst the common travel area where, when the Republic of Ireland and Great Britain were both together either inside or outside the EU, it made sense to have that common travel area.
“Now what we have is people that aren’t British, coming into Dublin, coming across a borderless island, getting on a ferry and going straight into Britain.
“So the workings out of that will be is, in a very short space of time, we will end up with British citizens in Northern Ireland having to show their passports to get back into Britain.”

(gbnews)

Breaking articles of the Acts of Union?! Ho ho. The fuckers have been doing that for centuries.

Dura_Ace · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).
This Wallace?

‘Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms 10,000 troop cut to the size of the British Army’

How old is that? The Sea Kings are long gone since 2018 with only two in private hands at Portland for Marineflieger training.

OnlyLivingBoy · July 2022

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.

Self destruction, or destroying the country?

Scott_xP · July 2022

We expect 1922 committee to confirm the process for electing its new executive today.

Working proposition is they hold elections next Weds, with rebels on 1922 hoping for an immediate change in the rules and a second vote of confidence before summer recess.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544565008956379136

StuartDickson · July 2022

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.

Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

DecrepiterJohnL · July 2022

This is a good test of the pundits' favourite nostrum that high-profile resignations topple prime ministers, like they did not under May, Brown, Blair or Thatcher.

Jonathan · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.

StuartDickson · July 2022

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.
Self destruction, or destroying the country?

Starmer wants to make Brexit Destroying the Country work.

DavidL · July 2022

What last night seems to have shown is that even after 2 major cabinet resignations the vast serried ranks of Ministers have once again stuck with the PM. There have been a few extremely trivial resignations as PPS or trade representative etc but ideas that this would lead to 40-50 more resignations and the collapse of the Johnson regime seems wide of the mark. In a party where the PM had lost support generally we should have been getting to the point some posts were difficult to fill. Instead the sea has swept over Sunak and Javid and it is as it was before.

This is grim news for both the country and the Conservative party. What is it going to take? More than this apparently.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.

Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.

Foxy · July 2022

Taz said:

IanB2 said:
Last nights Newsnight contains some scathing commentary on the PM.
Hardly a shock given it’s Newsnight.

They couldn't find a single MP or commentator willing to come on and defend Johnson they reported.

Nigelb · July 2022

Heathener said:

Scott_xP said:
Morning,

The Pm fights on, after two bombshell resignations.

No10 sources say Sajid Javid warned the PM he would quit but Rishi Sunak didn’t

And that the PM feels “liberated” to go for growth - as well tax cuts - with a chancellor “who is an entrepreneur not a banker”.
https://twitter.com/tamcohen/status/1544560234781462529

Unless the '22 get their act together we are so screwed
Yep. Boris is about to apply the same approach to his personal spending to the British economy. The Daily Express may love it but Boris is someone who is on the verge of bankruptcy and who borrows from one credit card to 'pay off' another.

He won't care as long as it keeps him in office for a bit longer.

Does the UK have any wealthy friends left to bail it out ?
It certainly won't be able to cash in on the after dinner circuit.

Jonathan · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.
Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.

Well, he will be in a stronger position than the chaos of Sindy Brexit 2.0.

StuartDickson · July 2022

IanB2 said:

Roger said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:
Benjamin Netanyahu demanded luxury gifts from billionaire friends including champagne and expensive cigars which he enjoyed dipping into Cointreau, Jerusalem corruption trial hears
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10984485/Benjamin-Netanyahu-demanded-luxury-gifts-billionaire-friends-including-champagne-cigars.html

Can anyone think of other prime ministers who like a freebie?
Does wallpaper count? I'm not sure I understand the point of the header or if I do I can't see why it has any relevance to the strange circumstances of today. Is it saying its always been like this? If so I couldn't agree less. That's what makes it so tawdry.
We seem to have an off-topic lead on a very significant political day.

Not off-topic at all. Labour are just as bad as the Tories. That’s a header worth having every day.

ydoethur · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.
Self destruction, or destroying the country?
Starmer wants to make Brexit Destroying the Country work.

A bit like you and the rest of the SNP then?

Big_G_NorthWales · July 2022

Heathener said:
Two weeks today until the summer recess. Johnson has 14-days to survive (until the next inevitable crisis in the autumn).

14 days for the parliamentary Conservative Party to get their act together and do the deed. The summer recess would be perfect time for leadership hustings whilst a deputy deputes. If the current executive of the 1922 had any common sense they wouldn't wait for the executive elections, they would vote today to change the VONC rule and hold a vote on Monday.

Johnson would then face the weekend deciding whether to face the ignominy of certain defeat or resign.

Good morning

As much as I would like that to happen the 1922 do have to follow their rules and I expect the vonc will take place before recess under the new elected committee

Foxy · July 2022

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).
This Wallace?

‘Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms 10,000 troop cut to the size of the British Army’

How old is that? The Sea Kings are long gone since 2018 with only two in private hands at Portland for Marineflieger training.

The carriers look the wrong way round too.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.
Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.
Well, he will be in a stronger position than the chaos of Sindy Brexit 2.0.

Project Fear alive and kicking. This BritNat car crash is going to be a thing of beauty.

Heathener · July 2022

Scott_xP said:
We expect 1922 committee to confirm the process for electing its new executive today.

Working proposition is they hold elections next Weds, with rebels on 1922 hoping for an immediate change in the rules and a second vote of confidence before summer recess.
https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544565008956379136

This is the key, isn't it?

To paraphrase Professor Dumbledore:

"It is everything. Without it we leave the fate of our country to chance. You have no choice. You must not fail."

stjohn · July 2022

What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?

OnlyLivingBoy · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Heathener said:
But I'm not holding my breath. The tory party seem hell-bent on self destruction.

Those who are 'sure' that Labour cannot win outright next time may be making a huge mistake. They can, especially with tactical voting operating.
Self destruction, or destroying the country?
Starmer wants to make Brexit Destroying the Country work.

That is probably smart politics but is stupid in every other way. Some of the public are slow learners.

IanB2 · July 2022

Foxy said:

Taz said:

IanB2 said:
Last nights Newsnight contains some scathing commentary on the PM.
Hardly a shock given it’s Newsnight.
They couldn't find a single MP or commentator willing to come on and defend Johnson they reported.

And every person interviewed was a Conservative, most of them elected or formally elected.

Heathener · July 2022

Whilst seeking that Dumbledore quote I also came across this one:

“It is a curious thing, Harry, but perhaps those who are best suited to power are those who have never sought it. Those who, like you, have leadership thrust upon them, and take up the mantle because they must, and find to their own surprise that they wear it well.”

Someone who always wanted to be king of the world should have been let nowhere near it.

Foxy · July 2022

stjohn said:
What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?

He would be the first sitting PM to lose his own seat since the stone age or so.

Jonathan · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.
Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.
Well, he will be in a stronger position than the chaos of Sindy Brexit 2.0.
Project Fear alive and kicking. This BritNat car crash is going to be a thing of beauty.

People do not want to see yet more upheaval and the bullshit that goes with a border in Great Britain , which is precisely what you want to see.

DavidL · July 2022

stjohn said:
What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?

I think that that might have the ministerial ranks come out against him. Since all that matters to them (apparently) is the trappings of office a GE where they are going in 8% behind is a greater threat to their emoluments than Boris. Also if the FPN does arrive today we could have a situation where both the parties are effectively leaderless. Hardly ideal for a GE.

StuartDickson · July 2022

Dura_Ace said:

StuartDickson said:

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Just remarkable the cowardice and lack of judgement from almost all the Cabinet (a pass might be given to Wallace).
This Wallace?

‘Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms 10,000 troop cut to the size of the British Army’

How old is that? The Sea Kings are long gone since 2018 with only two in private hands at Portland for Marineflieger training.

Feel free to post a better graphic.

Heathener · July 2022

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.
Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.

I do think, if I may say, that you're letting your vitriolic anti-Labour stance cloud your judgement?

Starmer is playing smart politics at the moment: what he has said about Brexit (even if he doesn't believe it) was good red wall politicking.

Tony Blair did all this brilliantly in the run up to winning.

It tells me that Labour are hungry for power and they sense they are in with a real chance.

Nigelb · July 2022

stjohn said:
What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?

Probably.

The prospect of rapid electoral wipeout would certainly give the party incentive to act quickly.

Though there's no certainty, since that argument ought to persuade them to ditch him immediately anyway.
If they leave it another year, changing leader won't make much difference to their prospects.

StuartDickson · July 2022

DavidL said:

stjohn said:
What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?
I think that that might have the ministerial ranks come out against him. Since all that matters to them (apparently) is the trappings of office a GE where they are going in 8% behind is a greater threat to their emoluments than Boris. Also if the FPN does arrive today we could have a situation where both the parties are effectively leaderless. Hardly ideal for a GE.

Both of the big BritNat parties are already effectively leaderless. Keir Starmer caved in yesterday. The nutters are running the asylum unhindered.

Scott_xP · July 2022

My main takeaway is that this is totally crackers. Forget @campbellclaret, the people who want Johnson out are those famous lefty Remoaners:

Rishi Sunak, Sajid Javid, David Frost, David Frost, Steve Baker and around 200 others https://twitter.com/mattchorley/status/1544568054096461830

turbotubbs · July 2022

Heathener said:
Whilst seeking that Dumbledore quote I also came across this one:

“It is a curious thing, Harry, but perhaps those who are best suited to power are those who have never sought it. Those who, like you, have leadership thrust upon them, and take up the mantle because they must, and find to their own surprise that they wear it well.”

Someone who always wanted to be king of the world should have been let nowhere near it.

Totally agree, but I suspect 90% of politicians, if not more, have actively sought power for their own ends, rather than to help others.

BartholomewRoberts · July 2022

DavidL said:
What last night seems to have shown is that even after 2 major cabinet resignations the vast serried ranks of Ministers have once again stuck with the PM. There have been a few extremely trivial resignations as PPS or trade representative etc but ideas that this would lead to 40-50 more resignations and the collapse of the Johnson regime seems wide of the mark. In a party where the PM had lost support generally we should have been getting to the point some posts were difficult to fill. Instead the sea has swept over Sunak and Javid and it is as it was before.

This is grim news for both the country and the Conservative party. What is it going to take? More than this apparently.

I don't agree David, Boris is a goner and its only a matter of when not if he goes now.

The fact that people are willing to serve as Ministers isn't a failure, the work of government has to continue. Some people bizarrely acting as if there should be no Chancellor today and that everyone should have refused the role - its utterly ridiculous, the markets would tank if they opened to the lack of a Chancellor.

In a secret ballot it would only take 32 switching votes to see Boris out, we got 6 public resignations last night, there'll easily be 26 more seeing the writing on the wall and willing to do so privately.

StuartDickson · July 2022

stjohn said:
What do we think would happen if Boris announces a GE to take place as soon as possible? Could and would he be wrested from power by his own party before that happens or not?

Year of Next UK GE - best prices

2022 12/1
2023 4/1
2024 or later 2/5

turbotubbs · July 2022

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

StuartDickson said:
‘The SNP will be rejoicing at Starmer's hard Brexit line‘

"MAKE Brexit Work” sounds like one of Boris Johnson's test slogans for the next General Election. In fact it is now Labour's headline policy following Sir Keir Starmer's remarkable conversion to the Brexit cause. He unveiled the new slogan in a speech to the Centre for European Reform.

It's an unexpected gift to Nicola Sturgeon, whose latest Indyref plan was getting heavy weather from sceptics in and out of the SNP. Suddenly she leads the only serious pro-European party in Scotland, apart from the Greens and the LibDems. Getting 50 per cent of the vote in the 2024 General Election looks easier now that the SNP is the obvious destination for the 62 per cent of Scots who voted to remain in the EU.

(The Herald €)
The SNP are promising yet more upheaval. Labour are promising relatively stability and a path to recovery. I am not sure the Scots will vote for more Brexit style chaos. A split in the U.K. will make Brexit look like a picnic.
Labour and the Tories: two faces of the same dud coin.
SNP and Tories, surely? Vote SNP for a Conservative government. Scots voters need to think separately about Westminster and Holyrood elections.
English nationalists and Scottish nationalists. Two cheeks of the same arse. Brexit = Sindy. Both need to go.
Starmer is now committed to the British nationalist line. Proof once again that one should choose one’s bedfellows with care.

Nah. He’s just not going to invest all his political capital in trying to reverse a done deal. There are more important issues like fixing the NHS and the economy. The SNP would be wise to drop the ideological baggage and focus on what matters.
Starmer is going to “fix the economy” without improving international trade? This car crash might well be worse than the last one.
Well, he will be in a stronger position than the chaos of Sindy Brexit 2.0.
Project Fear alive and kicking. This BritNat car crash is going to be a thing of beauty.
People do not want to see yet more upheaval and the bullshit that goes with a border in Great Britain , which is precisely what you want to see.

Yes, from his lofty perch in Sweden, as he loves his country so much. Like all those other Scots who love the homeland so much, but can’t quite bring themselves to live there and actually contribute.

Jonathan · July 2022

BartholomewRoberts said:

DavidL said:
What last night seems to have shown is that even after 2 major cabinet resignations the vast serried ranks of Ministers have once again stuck with the PM. There have been a few extremely trivial resignations as PPS or trade representative etc but ideas that this would lead to 40-50 more resignations and the collapse of the Johnson regime seems wide of the mark. In a party where the PM had lost support generally we should have been getting to the point some posts were difficult to fill. Instead the sea has swept over Sunak and Javid and it is as it was before.

This is grim news for both the country and the Conservative party. What is it going to take? More than this apparently.
I don't agree David, Boris is a goner and its only a matter of when not if he goes now.

The fact that people are willing to serve as Ministers isn't a failure, the work of government has to continue. Some people bizarrely acting as if there should be no Chancellor today and that everyone should have refused the role - its utterly ridiculous, the markets would tank if they opened to the lack of a Chancellor.

In a secret ballot it would only take 32 switching votes to see Boris out, we got 6 public resignations last night, there'll easily be 26 more seeing the writing on the wall and willing to do so privately.

You assume they voted for Boris last time. Not sure that’s the case given the obvious animosity.

Foxy · July 2022

turbotubbs said:

Heathener said:
Whilst seeking that Dumbledore quote I also came across this one:

“It is a curious thing, Harry, but perhaps those who are best suited to power are those who have never sought it. Those who, like you, have leadership thrust upon them, and take up the mantle because they must, and find to their own surprise that they wear it well.”

Someone who always wanted to be king of the world should have been let nowhere near it.
Totally agree, but I suspect 90% of politicians, if not more, have actively sought power for their own ends, rather than to help others.

I suspect far fewer than that, perhaps not even 20%. Most MPs will be in either opposition or on the backbenches for most of their career in politics, or possibly a junior minister.

Most genuinely want to help others, or at least help a minority.

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