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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov and Survation phone polls are out – It is still too close to call.
YouGov/Times: The 25 to 29 age bracket favour "yes" by 56-44, while the 16 to 24 & 40 to 59 ages are split 50-50. "No" only ahead among 60+
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-David Cameron
As you would say...
Alex Salmond = Neil Kinnock !!!!
I've tossed the dice!
I think its better if yes wins, because angry Noers will still have the choice to live in Britain or Scotland while angry Yesssers will be (in their mind) "trapped" in Britain with no hope of another referendum.. pent up anxiety is never a good thing, and there wont be a referendum for God knows how long
Its why UKIP should wait until they get a referendum on their terms rather than Cameron's... as DC said this is a once in a lifetime vote.. you just cant afford to lose if you want real change
Whatever you tribal politics etc, you would have to feel for people who are passionately in favour of an independent Scotland if they fail by a fag paper to achieve their desire, and I cant help thinking the outpourings of grief from Southern Englishmen wanting NO doesn't count for anywhere near as much as that of Scots who want YES
So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd
an unfortunate sentence construct?
www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/17/gordon-brown-found-his-voice-union-scottish-referendum-vote
A mistake, certainly, but I'm not sure how Cameron could have avoided it. What was he supposed to do - disallow the referendum? Send Osborne and Francis Maude to Scotland to make the case instead of Scottish Labour?
Incidentally - in addition to Gordon Brown, credit should be given to Jim Murphy, who I've long thought has been under-valued by his party.
I've got Thurs/Fri blocked out for interweb watching.
Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd
Pathetic - lol
He carried out an analysis of the percentage of undecided that had to go Yes's way before they could win on current polling.
Pollster NO YES DK DKs for YES win
ICM 45 41 14 64.3%
Survation 48 44 8 75.0%
Opinium 49 45 6 83.3%
If these polls are showing don't knows down to 4% then Sam Coates can't count. The only way for Yes to win is for the poll to be wrong in the first place.
That of course is entirely possible, indeed likely, although the inaccuracy will not necessarily favour yes.
This is either the worst polling disaster in history or No is going to win. But it is still very close.
Yeah good luck blaming Labour for this one, you Conservative and Unionist Cameron fanboy you.
shadsy • Posts: 161
10:16PM
No should be a lot shorter imo. Probably about 1/8.
The visibility and enthusiasm of YES is keeping the price up despite the now very conclusive polling evidence.
It's tricky for us to make YES much bigger though, as I am anticipating a huge volume of Scottish money for it tomorrow as the inevitable tales of huge queues outside polling stations convinces people that 7/2 is a great price in a "toss-up" which is how the media will keep portraying it.
Why so confident?
During the whole of this campaign there have been only two polls that showed a yes lead, and one of those (ICM last week) was a clear outlier. All other polls by all polling organisations have shown no ahead. The gap has certainly narrowed but it has not closed completely. If yes wins now this referendum would surely be the biggest upset in the history of polling.
So, winning could come down to getting 35,000 people out to vote.
Sam Coates Times@SamCoatesTimes·7 mins
So Ed Miliband didn't turn up to the final "no" #indyref rally tonight, pulling out at the last moment. That looks odd
You heard it here first!
Not bothered, zzz, totally like wtf at cybernats on twitter, etc
Three separate occasions today I've heard three different groups of people raging about Cameron giving 'even more' money to Scotland.
You can be sure that Conservative MPs are hearing the same raging, though doubtless some are raging themselves.
With Cameron having given yet another example of his crap negotiating and habit of surrendering when the pressure is on does anyone still believe he can achieve his promised renegotiation with the EU - that renegotiation which is 'a great undertaking nobody to know what it is'.
Farage is laughing tonight.
I signed up for Blether Together today but have heard nothing. Not a good sign!
Yes 46.46%
Turnout 81.81%
The Scots will bottle their opportunity for freedom.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WX0VkvxhGdACIr4FYUue_Cryk6JNRg743gsgoETYtw0/htmlview?usp=drive_web
It's not all about Cameron this however much the usual suspects might hope.
twitter.com/suttonnick/status/512347496572391424/photo/1
I'll see if I can save my comment to allow easier repeating as each week goes by.
I do not want the PB Tories to forget that their heroes tolerate thousands of child rapes.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/17/shetland-may-reconsider-place-scotland-yes-vote-alistair-carmichael
Though you can find James's blog on the internet and more details to judge for yourself, google is your friend.
Miliband rendered utterly useless in a heartland.
The Government's proposals carry within them the virus that will begin to eat away, and eventually cause to unravel, the bonds that hold the United Kingdom together. It is not written into the White Paper, but the virus is there. The proposals are the first step on the way to an independent Scotland and the break-up of the United Kingdom.
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm199798/cmhansrd/vo970731/debtext/70731-11.htm
Or ís it his fault that Miliband can't reach Scottish Labour voters?
Iain Martin@iainmartin1·7 mins
Only hours to go until Scotland's day of density.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bxw9k7MCYAAf9K6.jpg
Cameron is still of course an utterly useless politician and no more deserving of the post of Prime Minister than Mr. Hopkins' cat. What comes next will require real political and leadership skills - Cameron is deficient in both.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jCLs0jv_Efk
Best YES price still 8/11 (Shadsy).
A sensible question and not intending to score political points.
Why do you think that Cameron has shown no interest in sorting out the English democratic deficit during his nine years as Conservative leader and four years as prime minister ?
By doing so he would have ensured
A stronger Union (which clearly does mean much to him)
A happier England
A happier Scotland
Electoral benefits for the Conservative party
Instead he has allowed the virus described by Ancram to remain untreated.
They no where their benefits are paid from
Perhaps it's time to spook voters with another flash crash or mini financial crisis.
Cameron is now in a lose-lose position - if it's yes he's toast. If it's a big majority for no then he will be accused of making unnecessary concessions on the Barnett formula and devomax. If it's a narrow no, as the polls suggest, then he will be held responsible for the bitterness and resentment that will follow and Gordon Brown will be hailed as the man who delivered the union from peril in which Cameron so carelessly put it. The Tories will hate that.
And then there is Clacton.......
Isn't she from somewhere up North? She also started wetting her pants about Boris being mayor of London despite not being from London.
Now she's inflicting her ugly face on those poor souls North of the border
Is it really that shit where she is from that she has to pretend to be from anywhere else she sees on a map?
'I hate England': Tartan-loving fashion designer Vivienne Westwood pins 'Yes' badges on her models (despite the fact she's grown rich in London and hasn't got a Scottish bone in her body)
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2755652/Tartan-loving-designer-Vivienne-Westwood-pledges-support-Yes-campaign-Scottish-independence-slamming-unionists-frightened-stupid.html#ixzz3Dc0PePei
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