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edited September 2014 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters

Here at PB we generally like pollsters (especially if they drop by to read and boost traffic numbers). I’m sure many of them are lovely people (a couple have even retweeted me occasionally) but it’s mostly the polls they produce that we like (sometimes with the slight undercurrent of getting a fix supplied).

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Comments

  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2014
    First!!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Darn it.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Speaking of Scotch - have a look at Peter Brooke's latest cartoon. Cameron as Johnnie Walker.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Food for thought. Thanks for posting your thoughts.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited September 2014
    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    A nice argument, Corporeal!

    Still, I don't think we need to worry. I think we can continue to rely on the markets getting political odds wrong enough for there to be opportunities for profit.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Cameron can't even get the question right:
    My name is not on the ballot paper. What’s on the ballot paper is ‘does Scotland want to stay in the United Kingdom, or does Scotland want to separate itself from the United Kingdom?’. That’s the only question that will be decided on Thursday night. The question about my future will be decided at the British general election coming soon.
  • initforthemoney
    initforthemoney Posts: 736
    FPT

    SeanT: 'I cannot believe Scotland is about to vote YES to this package of lies told by Salmond. Perhaps they know it is all lies, yet do not care?'

    Lies from yes (the standard type of lies we have at every election: more for free, everything will turn up rosy) v lies from no (we're all doomed 100 times over, even in ways which sound good to me like not being allowed into the EU or not having to guarantee the savings of either English or Scottish residents cos all the banks have buggered off down south). It is all lies, so we're better off sticking to first principles (whatever they might be: varies by voter).

    Keeping power as close as feasible to home, screwing Labour, fighting against unfair asymmetric devolution....take your pick.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Beverley_C said:

    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"

    I'm guess the wild inaccuracies will cancel each other out and the pollsters will be right but their demographics will be wrong.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. T, it's bad manners to fiddle with your dongle during a performance.
  • shadsy
    shadsy Posts: 289
    Some polling observations from me. I like pollsters, I hope they are right.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/if-this-is-on-a-knife-edge-why-is-yes-72/
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited September 2014
    shadsy said:

    Some polling observations from me. I like pollsters, I hope they are right.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/if-this-is-on-a-knife-edge-why-is-yes-72/

    Top-notch stuff, Shadsy.

    Edit: Incidentally, note this: if forced to make a prediction, I think we’ll see a reasonably comfortable NO win by around 55-45.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    I'm going to a nude sexy burlesque tonight.

    Imagine I'll be the only audience member looking mostly at his smartphone for opinion polls.

    Careful, it might be Scottish themed - Wee Willie Malcolm peeling off his kilt to the interminable drone of a piper.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Polling porn on DP (ooer)

    Boon of ICM and Lyons of Survation
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    I read interesting things about the ICM tables showing a lack of young and C2DE voters. If true, it fits with mass new registrations, mass turnout, more chance of yes. Interesting that my comrades on the left are telling the likes of me to stop being excited about the referendum - what is it with the established westminster parties being so damned dismissive?

    I'm a leftie. I'm a Labour activist in northern England. I'd vote to leave the EU, and I'd vote yes to Scottish independence. There are shades and differences of opinion across all peoples and all parties - where leaders on all sides assume their stated status quo is all, thats when they suddenly wonder why all the muttering against them is going on.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    How did the results compare with the final opinion polls?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    There's so much going on in this referendum that I just don't understand - Martin Boon ICM
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    FPT
    Socrates said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Bond_James_Bond said:

    And those costs should be borne by those who have chosen to live there, Richard. Look, there must be advantages to living in Scotland. Whatever those are - cheap houses, nice scenery, deep fried Mars Bars, the attractive and intelligible regional accent - they are offsetting benefits to set against the disadvantages of living in a sparsely populated and remote part of the country.

    WTF should the rest of us, who have foregone those benefits, be expropriated to cushion those who enjoy them from the financial drawbacks of their choices?

    The same argument applies to Wales or Yorkshire (the latter being a particularly fine place to live).

    You're arguing against any form of inter-regional transfer.
    No, he's not. Inter-regional transfers can still be justified in terms of more people needing health treatment or unemployment insurance in a particular region.
    Exactly. To the extent that region A needs more health money than B, C or D, because it has more pensioners, that's fair enough. But if it costs more to treat them in region A because it's a sparsely populated and remote part of the country, that's region A's problem, not one to be amortised across everyone else.
  • FF42
    FF42 Posts: 114
    Beverley_C said:

    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"

    I just have a gut feel that turnout might not be so high as everyone expects. There are quite a lot of Don't Know's. A heads versus hearts inner conflict, which many people seem to have, means that one result is as good as another to them. Effectively, Don't care.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    How many were dissolving 300 year unions, where the smaller entity had provided a disproportionate number of prime ministers?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    shadsy said:

    Some polling observations from me. I like pollsters, I hope they are right.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/if-this-is-on-a-knife-edge-why-is-yes-72/

    Thank you for posting this - interesting to note that to win Yes need to get 64-83% of the DKs to break for them....
  • [Deleted User]
    [Deleted User] Posts: 0
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.
    ...damn right....it's much worse....:-)
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    via Guido.

    The Prime Minister feels the pressure:

    “I have to say that after the events I have been facing over the last few days, assassination would be a welcome release.”
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    CarlottaVance said:


    Thank you for posting this - interesting to note that to win Yes need to get 64-83% of the DKs to break for them....

    Only if the figures stating that NO leads by x% are accurate.
  • Bond_James_Bond
    Bond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.
    ...damn right....it's much worse....:-)
    The weather in both those places is nicer. And so is the food (when you can get it).
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited September 2014
    FF42 said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"

    I just have a gut feel that turnout might not be so high as everyone expects. There are quite a lot of Don't Know's. A heads versus hearts inner conflict, which many people seem to have, means that one result is as good as another to them. Effectively, Don't care.
    Yes surely a lot of don't knows just won't vote? They don't have to make up their mind
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    And here's where it we just don't know do we, is a turnout of 75% instead of 80% or 85% better for one side?
    isam said:


    Yes surely a lot of don't knows just won't vote? They don't have to make up their mind

  • Rexel56
    Rexel56 Posts: 807
    Do I understand from the previous thread that the Vow binds the current and future Parliaments to maintain the Barnett Formula? Or are Socrates and others saying that because Cameron has made the vow we must expect him to remain honest to it and treat it as a promise to do all he can personally to deliver on his commitment? If so, it's a refreshing and welcome change from the usual stance that Cameron is not to be trusted on anything he says.... hopefully the newfound respect will continue when attention turns back to the EU.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Patrick said:

    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.
    ...damn right....it's much worse....:-)
    The weather in both those places is nicer. And so is the food (when you can get it).
    Friendlier locals.
  • Itajai
    Itajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    Patrick said:

    Was reading the International New York Times on the way back from Krakow last night. Apparently 88% of independence votes in recent decades have gone to the YES side. Just saying....

    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.
    Trying to remember which independence referendums failed? Quebec?
    Salmond should be happy the EU has not enforced its normal threshold of 55% as it did in Montenegro.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    FF42 said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"

    I just have a gut feel
    "I try not to think with my gut" (Carl Sagan).

    A "gut feel" on this sort of question would only be valuable if it came from someone who, say, had tipped Obama for POTUS at 50/1.

  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    FF42 said:

    Beverley_C said:

    I think that there are so many influences involved that the pollsters have no chance of being correct. I think that

    - Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins

    or

    - NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters

    All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"

    I just have a gut feel that turnout might not be so high as everyone expects. There are quite a lot of Don't Know's. A heads versus hearts inner conflict, which many people seem to have, means that one result is as good as another to them. Effectively, Don't care.
    Lots of soft NO's will just dodge voting, conscience will then be salved.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    edited September 2014
    SeanT said:

    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    So any NO lead in the polls, now, must be a point or two wider, in reality.

    For that reason I reckon the result will be around 53/47 NO/YES.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Weren't they cast at a time when YES had proper momentum and before Westminster realised they needed to take this all seriously? That 20-25% who voted thought they were either voting for independence or no change, this VOW is something they haven't been able to factor in.

    Which is basically why we shouldn't have postal votes.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    DanSmith said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    Thank you for posting this - interesting to note that to win Yes need to get 64-83% of the DKs to break for them....

    Only if the figures stating that NO leads by x% are accurate.
    Did someone not post earlier that on Survation poll , DK's were going to YES at 94%
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    He's bluffing.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited September 2014
    Cheers Corporeal, for the entertaining distraction. ; )

    So, in the event of widely inaccurate polls, we could see a new ‘Gold Standard’ – or not?

    I’ll drink a toast to that.
  • JohnLilburne
    JohnLilburne Posts: 6,879
    Rexel56 said:

    Do I understand from the previous thread that the Vow binds the current and future Parliaments to maintain the Barnett Formula? Or are Socrates and others saying that because Cameron has made the vow we must expect him to remain honest to it and treat it as a promise to do all he can personally to deliver on his commitment? If so, it's a refreshing and welcome change from the usual stance that Cameron is not to be trusted on anything he says.... hopefully the newfound respect will continue when attention turns back to the EU.

    It still seems to me to be a promise he can't deliver
    What if the voters of the UK disagree? We haven't been asked, yet. Although the three main parties are doing their best to deny us a democratic choice by all signing up to it.

  • Itajai
    Itajai Posts: 721
    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    Guess it's not only BBC bias then. It's at least eight years per the Spanish press.

    http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/09/17/actualidad/1410935302_819321.html
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    YES
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    Have any of the postal votes even been opened?
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Alanbrooke said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    He's bluffing.
    Alan, worse he is a fanny of the first order.
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    SeanT said:


    I am pretty confident that those postal votes will favour NO. As is everyone else.

    They might do for demographic reasons, not sure beyond that it's going to help NO that much.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    Alanbrooke said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    He's bluffing.
    I tend to agree. The longer any country stays out of the EU, the less likely they are to want to go back in. The EU will want to grasp what it can, and get Scotland back in and paying its subs asap. They're taking a tough stance now because that's how you negotiate (something Cameron might wish to take on board).

  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SeanT said:

    DanSmith said:

    CarlottaVance said:


    Thank you for posting this - interesting to note that to win Yes need to get 64-83% of the DKs to break for them....

    Only if the figures stating that NO leads by x% are accurate.
    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    So any NO lead in the polls, now, must be a point or two wider, in reality.

    For that reason I reckon the result will be around 53/47 NO/YES.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.
    No, because a. the pollsters (or those they question) are almost certainly treating "have voted x" as equivalent to "will vote x" and b. anyone decisive enough to have requested and cast a postal vote is highly likely to be an unshiftably decided voter one way or the other, so the state of the polls at the time of voting is irrelevant. So in the absence of fraud, postal voting just time-shifts the putting of the paper into the ballot box and makes very little difference to the outcome.

  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    JohnLilburne said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Do I understand from the previous thread that the Vow binds the current and future Parliaments to maintain the Barnett Formula? Or are Socrates and others saying that because Cameron has made the vow we must expect him to remain honest to it and treat it as a promise to do all he can personally to deliver on his commitment? If so, it's a refreshing and welcome change from the usual stance that Cameron is not to be trusted on anything he says.... hopefully the newfound respect will continue when attention turns back to the EU.

    It still seems to me to be a promise he can't deliver
    What if the voters of the UK disagree? We haven't been asked, yet. Although the three main parties are doing their best to deny us a democratic choice by all signing up to it.

    Dear Dear , John just tug your forelock and know your place for goodness sake.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    I thought they weren't opened until counting time?
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    Have any of the postal votes even been opened?
    I checked mine had arrived and they confirmed it had been received and scanned. Not sure if that means opened mind you.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited September 2014
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    It isn't a question of Scotland being forced out of the EU, if Scots vote to leave the UK they automatically leave the EU. They will be allowed to re-enter on the EU's terms if at all.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    edited September 2014
    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    That's quite likely I think. Everything will come down to tomorrow.

  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


  • jam2809
    jam2809 Posts: 62
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    That's quite likely I think. Everything will come down to tomorrow.

    I struggle with this. I thought the postal votes were only counted on Thursday, together with the rest?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    malcolmg said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    Have any of the postal votes even been opened?
    I checked mine had arrived and they confirmed it had been received and scanned. Not sure if that means opened mind you.
    Are they like the locals and in an envelope in an envelope? The outer one was probably opened.
  • Itajai
    Itajai Posts: 721
    Re Scotland in the EU, the desire for quick entrance may be on both sides. But what would be negotiable and off the table?
    What will be the price for Scotland remaining in the CTA, using the pound, and even still using pints in pubs and miles on motorways? The centralising and homogenisation instinct of the EU will need to be bought off.
    But Ireland and the UK show some/all of these are possible after negotiations. What will Scotland offer in exchange? Scotland will probably be a net contributor from the off too. Guess the rebate is off the table too.
  • eek
    eek Posts: 30,708
    For postal votes the scrutinisers can check the proof within the postal votes but are not supposed to be able to see the actual votes.

    I think in reality that is impossible so they will have seen at least some of the votes....
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.

    That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.

    Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.

    What bollocks, what makes you an expert to say it is a lie. Only a thicko would make such a stupid statement. You may think it will take longer but it is purely conjecture and bias that drives that. It is as likely to be 18 months or less as it is to be many years.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Beverley_C
    "Even journalists are starting to stay away..."
    Counter intuitively, journalists like a bit of intimidation, it is "news".
    And like all "news" it can be spun.
  • CopperSulphate
    CopperSulphate Posts: 1,119
    All Scotland has to do is pretend to want to do a deal with Putin if they won't let them in the EU and they'll be offered full membership within about 15 minutes.

    Not that I think a period outside the EU will do them much harm anyway.
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.

    That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.

    Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.

    What bollocks, what makes you an expert to say it is a lie. Only a thicko would make such a stupid statement. You may think it will take longer but it is purely conjecture and bias that drives that. It is as likely to be 18 months or less as it is to be many years.
    Ha Ha.

    malcolm knows better than the Spanish PM.

    Eck knows better than the BoE and CoE.

    Do all 'Yessers' live in a deluded fantasy world?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    That's quite likely I think. Everything will come down to tomorrow.

    As far as I'm aware the inner-envelope of the postal votes won't be opened until tomorrow so this rumour sounds like a load of titty bollocks.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    RobD said:

    malcolmg said:

    Pong said:

    Scott_P said:

    SeanT said:


    Everyone seems to be ignoring the fact that 20-25% of the votes have already been cast - by post. And the chances are that those votes are quite heavily NO, as they will tend to come from the elderly, and they were cast at a time when NO was leading by a distance in the polls.

    But I reserve the right to completely change my opinion as soon as the next rumour comes ion.

    Rumours on twitter of yes leading in postal votes. How reliable they may be is anyone's guess
    Have any of the postal votes even been opened?
    I checked mine had arrived and they confirmed it had been received and scanned. Not sure if that means opened mind you.
    Are they like the locals and in an envelope in an envelope? The outer one was probably opened.
    Yes ballot paper was sealed in an envelope and that went in the actual envelope for posting.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


    There are many hundreds there already and flooding in. Only big jessies from down south seem to have issues, probably nose bleeds from getting north of Watford.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.

    That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.

    Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.

    Would you like to take my £25 straight up bet that if Scotland becomes independent it will be a member of the EU within 1 week of it's official Independence date?
  • FF42
    FF42 Posts: 114
    I don't think Scotland will be "out of the EU" in practical terms. I believe a temporary bilateral agreement can be made so that Scotland can interact with the EU in the same way as an EU member, but without having representation in the institutions. Unlike membership, this would not require ratification by national parliaments. If Switzerland can do it, and that was supposed to be a temporary arrangement too, why not Scotland?
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    The shortest period from application to joining the EU has been 3 years and 8 months

    There is no evidence to suggest that any possible Scottish application would be any shorter.
  • PAW
    PAW Posts: 1,074
    Alistair - and no freedom of movement - no benefits - six months before being asked to leave...
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "Scottish independence: Vote disorder reports 'exaggerated'"
    "The group which represents Scotland's police officers has strongly criticised "exaggerated rhetoric" about disorder in the referendum campaign."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235197
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    @corporeal

    Nice thread header!
    I've stuck my neck out and predicted 50.29% YES for Double Carpet's Election Game :)
  • TheWatcher
    TheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited September 2014
    CopperSulphate said:

    All Scotland has to do is pretend to want to do a deal with Putin if they won't let them in the EU and they'll be offered full membership within about 15 minutes.

    Yes, I can really see blackmail working.

    And banks are falling over themselves in the race to lend Putin and his chums money.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    It's ironic - UKIP are campaigning to keep Scotland within the UK (and thereby in the EU!), but looks like (for a time at least) if Scotland votes YES, she will be outside the EU, precisely what UKIP want!
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    TheWatcher said:

    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.

    That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.

    Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.

    What bollocks, what makes you an expert to say it is a lie. Only a thicko would make such a stupid statement. You may think it will take longer but it is purely conjecture and bias that drives that. It is as likely to be 18 months or less as it is to be many years.
    Ha Ha.

    malcolm knows better than the Spanish PM.

    Eck knows better than the BoE and CoE.

    Do all 'Yessers' live in a deluded fantasy world?
    Alien to you I know but it is called intelligence.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    eek said:

    For postal votes the scrutinisers can check the proof within the postal votes but are not supposed to be able to see the actual votes.

    I think in reality that is impossible so they will have seen at least some of the votes....

    The so called blind validation. I helped out with the validation for the European elections last May. It is true that even playing by the rules one can't help but see some of the votes and forming an opinion of the proportions of how they have been cast. I would urge caution on any such impression gained though. In my experience they are almost always wrong.

    The same goes for working at the count. At the last GE I was counting and could see the bundles stacking up. At one stage I thought Nicholas Soames was going to lose (an impression boosted by he and his staff at one point appearing to running around like headless chickens). As it turned out he won at a canter and finished several lengths ahead of his nearest rival.

    Rumours are rumours and no more.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    TheWatcher said:

    CopperSulphate said:

    All Scotland has to do is pretend to want to do a deal with Putin if they won't let them in the EU and they'll be offered full membership within about 15 minutes.

    Yes, I can really see blackmail working.

    And banks are falling over themselves in the race to lend Putin and his chums money.
    Herr Juncker: "I am for secret, dark debates."

    :)
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    malcolmg said:

    SeanT said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.

    That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.

    Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.

    What bollocks, what makes you an expert to say it is a lie. Only a thicko would make such a stupid statement. You may think it will take longer but it is purely conjecture and bias that drives that. It is as likely to be 18 months or less as it is to be many years.
    There is a disagreement about whether Scotland can use article 48 or not. If they cannot do so, then they would have to use article 49 which is a new application that would take atleast 5 years. So on the basis of not being able to apply until say 2015, it won't be until sometime after 2020 that Scotland might be back in the EU.

    So there could be a period of say 4 years when Scotland is not a member of the EU. During that time, Scottish voters may decide that they are quite happy not being in the EU, as they may see the advantage of being totally independent.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    SeanT said:

    FF42 said:

    I don't think Scotland will be "out of the EU" in practical terms. I believe a temporary bilateral agreement can be made so that Scotland can interact with the EU in the same way as an EU member, but without having representation in the institutions. Unlike membership, this would not require ratification by national parliaments. If Switzerland can do it, and that was supposed to be a temporary arrangement too, why not Scotland?

    Because, derr, Spain.
    Do you agree with Spain when it comes to Gibraltar by any chance?

    [waves to JonnyJimmy]
  • FF42
    FF42 Posts: 114
    SeanT said:

    FF42 said:

    I don't think Scotland will be "out of the EU" in practical terms. I believe a temporary bilateral agreement can be made so that Scotland can interact with the EU in the same way as an EU member, but without having representation in the institutions. Unlike membership, this would not require ratification by national parliaments. If Switzerland can do it, and that was supposed to be a temporary arrangement too, why not Scotland?

    Because, derr, Spain.
    On membership, yes. .That's a treaty change. A bilateral agreement, I think, is EU business and would be agreed with the European Council and voted on by parliament. I have no insight into whether this option is being discussed. I simply think this would be the sensible way of dealing with the novel situation where part of a member state has dislocated itself. I know things don't happen just because they are sensible. viz this referendum
  • JPJ2
    JPJ2 Posts: 380
    I have not posted here for years (self imposed exile) but I feel the need to post this press release so that even those who support No understand the scale of dishonesty perpetrated on the British public by the Daily Mail, Daily Telegraph and the Labour Party in Scotland, to mention but a few.

    Here is the truth which yet again today rejects the unionist lies about this referendum campaign:

    "SPF Media Release – Independence Referendum

    SCOTTISH POLICE FEDERATION
    5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QF


    The Scottish Police Federation represents all police officers in the ranks of constable, sergeant, inspector and chief inspector, police cadets and special constables, over 18,500 people, 98% of all police officers in Scotland.

    To: News Editor
    Date: 17 September 2014
    Subject: Independence Referendum

    In response to increased press reports and comment implying increased crime and disorder as a consequence of the Independence Referendum Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;

    “The Police Service of Scotland and the men and women who work in it should not be used as a political football at any time and especially so in these last few hours of the referendum campaign.

    As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured.

    It was inevitable that the closer we came to the 18th of September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration yet nothing could be further from the truth.

    Scotland’s citizens are overwhelmingly law abiding and tolerant and it is preposterous to imply that by placing a cross in a box, our citizens will suddenly abandon the personal virtues and values held dear to them all.

    At this time it is more important than ever that individuals be they politicians, journalists or whoever should carefully consider their words, maintain level heads and act with respect. Respect is not demonstrated by suggesting a minority of mindless idiots are representative of anything. One of the many joys of this campaign has been how it has awakened political awareness across almost every single section of society. The success enjoyed by the many should not be sullied by the actions of the few.

    Police officers must be kept free from the distractions of rhetoric better suited to the playground that the political stump. If crime has been committed it will be investigated and dealt with appropriately but quite simply police officers have better things to do than officiate in spats on social media and respond to baseless speculation of the potential for disorder on and following polling day”

    ENDS

    For further information contact Lesley Stevenson at 5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QF Telephone: 0141 332 5234 Mobile: 07967 104173 Fax: 0141 331 2436
    Email: lesley.stevenson@spf.org.uk"
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    FF42 said:

    I don't think Scotland will be "out of the EU" in practical terms. I believe a temporary bilateral agreement can be made so that Scotland can interact with the EU in the same way as an EU member, but without having representation in the institutions. Unlike membership, this would not require ratification by national parliaments. If Switzerland can do it, and that was supposed to be a temporary arrangement too, why not Scotland?

    There is a potential problem in Europe of not wanting to encourage separatists. This might mean that Scotland is not given an easy time, as to do so might not be wise. You could see the Catalans saying to the Madrid government that they want a referendum and similar treatment to Scotland.
  • DecrepitJohnL
    DecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Boris wants to charge a tenner for New Year fireworks.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29234879

    Cctv cameras will check for non-payers looking up at the sky.
  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    When an independent Scotland eventually rejoins the EU they will find food more expensive than south of the border, partly for the reasons the CEO of John Lewis outlined the other day and partly because of 5% (min) VAT will be added to the cost. This is compulsory for new EU members. Our zero rated exemptions including food predate the EU and derive from the time it was the EEC. Not good for the poor voters the SNP mafia have conned.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    No release time for the last 2 polls ?
  • oxfordsimon
    oxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    Norm said:

    When an independent Scotland eventually rejoins the EU they will find food more expensive than south of the border, partly for the reasons the CEO of John Lewis outlined the other day and partly because of 5% (min) VAT will be added to the cost. This is compulsory for new EU members. Our zero rated exemptions including food predate the EU and derive from the time it was the EEC. Not good for the poor voters the SNP mafia have conned.

    Indeed, it is amazing that more of the 5% VAT on food fact has not been used by the No campaign.

    Shows how inept they have been
  • bazzer
    bazzer Posts: 44
    "The task for them is undeniably greater than at a normal election"

    WIth respect I think that is very much deniable. There could be a strong argument that the polling should be far MORE accurate in this event than any normal election.

    There are only two options to choose from; the question is very clear; there are no electoral impact of third and fourth parties to consider. There is no need to worry about the impact of the electoral system and the vagaries of FPP etc and differential turnout between constituencies etc.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


    Please produce evidence of journalists "staying away". I assume they are not admitting it (how good will it look on their CVs?) Perhaps they could be replaced by the kind of journalists who had no difficulty in not staying away from Gaza during the bombardment?

  • Socrates
    Socrates Posts: 10,322
    foxinsoxuk said:

    SeanT said:

    To confirm what we all know, Spain won't make it easy for Scotland to rejoin the EU - so says the Spanish PM.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29234242

    Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.

    Will the Scots really vote for this??

    If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
    Well, not really, because leaving the EU will be tied up with leaving the UK.
  • HurstLlama
    HurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    @JPJ2

    "I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured."

    That copper obviously hasn't spent any time on here.

    Sorry, Mr. G., but I couldn't resist it.
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    @corporeal

    Nice thread header!
    I've stuck my neck out and predicted 50.29% YES for Double Carpet's Election Game :)

    I've just entered as well - 50.05% for Yes for me... - Although I'm not convinced that I got the regionals correct at all - had no idea what to put for Shetland, they are idiosyncratic enough that it could be virtually anything!
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    JohnLilburne said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Do I understand from the previous thread that the Vow binds the current and future Parliaments to maintain the Barnett Formula? Or are Socrates and others saying that because Cameron has made the vow we must expect him to remain honest to it and treat it as a promise to do all he can personally to deliver on his commitment? If so, it's a refreshing and welcome change from the usual stance that Cameron is not to be trusted on anything he says.... hopefully the newfound respect will continue when attention turns back to the EU.

    It still seems to me to be a promise he can't deliver
    What if the voters of the UK disagree? We haven't been asked, yet. Although the three main parties are doing their best to deny us a democratic choice by all signing up to it.
    If there is one thing about the next general election that I am confident about it is that the share of the vote received by the "three main parties" is going to decline.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Ishmael_X said:

    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


    Please produce evidence of journalists "staying away". I assume they are not admitting it (how good will it look on their CVs?) Perhaps they could be replaced by the kind of journalists who had no difficulty in not staying away from Gaza during the bombardment?

    you mean the ones who couldn't actually report because of their Hamas minders?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    Lennon said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    @corporeal

    Nice thread header!
    I've stuck my neck out and predicted 50.29% YES for Double Carpet's Election Game :)

    I've just entered as well - 50.05% for Yes for me... - Although I'm not convinced that I got the regionals correct at all - had no idea what to put for Shetland, they are idiosyncratic enough that it could be virtually anything!
    I said 48.9 for Shetland.
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    OblitusSumMe said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Rexel56 said:

    Do I understand from the previous thread that the Vow binds the current and future Parliaments to maintain the Barnett Formula? Or are Socrates and others saying that because Cameron has made the vow we must expect him to remain honest to it and treat it as a promise to do all he can personally to deliver on his commitment? If so, it's a refreshing and welcome change from the usual stance that Cameron is not to be trusted on anything he says.... hopefully the newfound respect will continue when attention turns back to the EU.

    It still seems to me to be a promise he can't deliver
    What if the voters of the UK disagree? We haven't been asked, yet. Although the three main parties are doing their best to deny us a democratic choice by all signing up to it.
    If there is one thing about the next general election that I am confident about it is that the share of the vote received by the "three main parties" is going to decline.
    Agree about that, although I think that we will probably have to stop calling the Lib Dems 'one of the three main parties' (if we still can)
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Alanbrooke said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


    Please produce evidence of journalists "staying away". I assume they are not admitting it (how good will it look on their CVs?) Perhaps they could be replaced by the kind of journalists who had no difficulty in not staying away from Gaza during the bombardment?

    you mean the ones who couldn't actually report because of their Hamas minders?
    That is so far off the point that it isn't worth the effort of trying to correct it. Work it out for yourself.

  • bazzer
    bazzer Posts: 44
    Ballot paper question: "Should Scotland be an independent country?" First option yes.

    This is a very long way, in emotional, psychological and "framing effect" terms from: "should scotland remain part of the UK?"

    If you have been brought up in Scotland, governed from many miles away, often by leaders who you feel don't represent you, I would contend it's pretty hard not have a visceral response to the question: "should Scotland be an independent country?" That answer might feel like: "of course it should".

    If you opt for "no" once inside the ballot box, you are almost saying, with the way the question has been boxed up: "no, I don't think the country is capable of operating alone, we are a pathetic enslaved inferior nation."

    I would suggest that in the privacy of the ballot box there are strong framing influences to deter people from saying "no", and perhaps even switch to "yes" on the spur of the moment. Confronted with the ballot paper it feels like such a negative, self-critical, low self-esteem action. Who would want to be part of such negativity...even those who do vote "no" will have to say themselves: "maybe Scotland should be an independent country, but because of my mortgage I am going to vote for something I don't really believe." It's hardly inspirational.

    If voters feel there is a real chance of a yes vote, won't they want to be part of that, part of making history, Braveheart etc?

    Irvine Welsh suggested that contrary to alot of commentary of people voting for status quo at the last minute and losing their nerve for economic reasons, given the Scottish mind set, many people might say f**k it, and vote yes as an emotional reaction to the ballot paper. I feel the layout of the ballot paper and the psychological forces could reinforce this.

    Seriously, if you go into the ballot box and vote, "no, Scotland should not be an independent country", as a proud Scot, aren't you going to feel you are denigrating your own nation that has fought the English for so long?"

    If you vote "no", with the question as presented, you are implicitly coming close to saying that Scotland is not CAPABLE of being an independent country. That is something that people who are unsure may be unlikely to do. Particularly if they feel they could be making history...
  • Norm
    Norm Posts: 1,251
    SeanT said:

    bazzer said:

    "The task for them is undeniably greater than at a normal election"

    WIth respect I think that is very much deniable. There could be a strong argument that the polling should be far MORE accurate in this event than any normal election.

    There are only two options to choose from; the question is very clear; there are no electoral impact of third and fourth parties to consider. There is no need to worry about the impact of the electoral system and the vagaries of FPP etc and differential turnout between constituencies etc.

    A very astute point. Which I hadn't considered before.
    It is a good point and maybe one for OGH to consider.
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Feel a bit sorry for Dave today.

    He's gone if he loses the union. He faces rebellion if he saves it.

  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Ishmael_X said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    Scotland is many things, and has a few problems, but it certainly isn't East Timor, or South Sudan.

    Yet!

    It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...


    Please produce evidence of journalists "staying away". I assume they are not admitting it (how good will it look on their CVs?) Perhaps they could be replaced by the kind of journalists who had no difficulty in not staying away from Gaza during the bombardment?

    you mean the ones who couldn't actually report because of their Hamas minders?
    That is so far off the point that it isn't worth the effort of trying to correct it. Work it out for yourself.

    No, I think it's maybe you has to do the working out.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    "As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured."

    Muslims are overwhelmingly good natured.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,808
    TGOHF said:

    No release time for the last 2 polls ?

    Ipsos Mori this evening.

    YouGov - 10pm
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