Neither says anything about "staying away". Please don't make things up. And Aberdeen at its worst really, really isn't Gaza.
Tom Bradby said: "I have a confession this morning, which is that I am not enjoying covering the Scottish referendum. I should be. All journalists live for the chance to report on great events and they don’t come more momentous than the potential break-up of the UK.
But pretty much all reporters I chatted to yesterday agreed that the level of abuse and even intimidation being meted out by some in the ‘Yes’ campaign was making this referendum a rather unpleasant experience.
And whilst I am sure both sides have been guilty, the truth - uncomfortable as it is to say it – is that most of the heckling and abuse does seem to be coming from the Nationalists."
Washington Nationals' win over Atlanta yesterday seals the National League East title for the second time in two years.
Hat tip to Tissue Price who advised grabbing the 20/1 against them winning the World Series way back when the season started. They are currently 11/2, and probably value at that.
Is there any particular reason that Dundee is the most pro-independence of Scottish cities?
I don;t know Scotland well and don;t want an insult from Malcolm G, but Frankie Boyle likes to characterize Dundee as rather...er.....shall we say 'client state'
A scottish friend characterized yes and no to me that way the other day, with yes voters tending to be public sector or welfare and no voters private sector,
I make no comment myself, I don;t know Scotland.
Labour have shat on them for 50 years, they have seen money spent there sign SNP got in and can see a better future with independence. Your friend is obviously a twunt of the first order but for sure all the troughers and me me people will be for NO. I rather doubt though that I am not the only well paid person not in public sector who is YES, we are not all greedy bloodsuckers.
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
Is there any particular reason that Dundee is the most pro-independence of Scottish cities?
All the bookies seem to have it on the best odds.
Dundee is a pretty remote place
Its not that remote! Its under 90 minutes from either Aberdeen or Edinburgh, or 2 hours from Glasgow......
It has suffered from the collapse of the '3 Js' (jam, jute and journalism) without having the greater resources of Glasgow which saw similar industrial contraction - but has now got a thriving computer games industry for example. One weak link is having an airport of any size.....
2 polls this year have put YES ahead. I think it would be an amazing feat for them to win in those circumstances, People sometimes mention 1992, but the Tories were actually ahead in 10 polls out of 50 during that campaign.
Only requires the polls to be 2% for Yes to win. The polls were 10% out in 92.
They overestimated YES, which is (perhaps temporary) comfort for those of a unionist persuasion. Yes was also far less controversial.
Sorry you were talking about the GE. On further research I find that by the week of the 1997 devolution referendum, all opinion polls got the eventual figure within a point, except ICM which underestimated YES by several points:
Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question. .
The what? Good luck with making it a doorstep issue, especially as we've all just promised to keep matters as they are, only more so.
And I'd like to believe that the issue will be closed down by a No tomorrow, but frankly I doubt it.
True I suspect, it is not a great one on the doorstep, but how is it right I in Cardiff get a more valuable vote than someone from Bristol just a stone's throw away. I get a say on Bristol schools, NHS, etc whereas someone there gets no effective say in my NHS, or schools. If we start devolving serious tax powers too to Scotland it gets even worse.
Isn't Ed standing on "fairness" and "standing up to vested interest"?
Palmer just wants to close down any debate on the English question because he knows it will well and truly shaft the Labour Party parrticularly if it takes hold with the English WWC. His every post about it is "nothing to see here move along, move along"
Still it will be a great issue to spike his leader with (alongside his EU worship) should he get into Downing Street given they will have barely 25% of the electorate's support at best.
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That and what terms they'll have to agree to to get all 28 existing members to sign (rebate, Schengen, VAT etc).
A mere formality.
malcolm's already told us that's wholly unnecessary, and being granted membership is a foregone conclusion.
Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question. .
The what? Good luck with making it a doorstep issue, especially as we've all just promised to keep matters as they are, only more so.
And I'd like to believe that the issue will be closed down by a No tomorrow, but frankly I doubt it.
True I suspect, it is not a great one on the doorstep, but how is it right I in Cardiff get a more valuable vote than someone from Bristol just a stone's throw away. I get a say on Bristol schools, NHS, etc whereas someone there gets no effective say in my NHS, or schools. If we start devolving serious tax powers too to Scotland it gets even worse.
Isn't Ed standing on "fairness" and "standing up to vested interest"?
There is no interest more vested than Scottish Labour.
Think I'd vote "No" if I could now, I may have voted "Yes" a few days back but Salmond is selling a dream, not reality.
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
Is there any particular reason that Dundee is the most pro-independence of Scottish cities?
All the bookies seem to have it on the best odds.
Dundee is a pretty remote place
Its not that remote! Its under 90 minutes from either Aberdeen or Edinburgh, or 2 hours from Glasgow......
It has suffered from the collapse of the '3 Js' (jam, jute and journalism) without having the greater resources of Glasgow which saw similar industrial contraction - but has now got a thriving computer games industry for example. One weak link is having an airport of any size.....
Agreed that it isn't Scapa flow! But it has a remote feel, something that Perth (just down the river) doesn't.
The technical position of sterling is continuing to improve following last week's buy signals vs AUD, JPY and CAD. Looking good against the EUR too; cable may be seeing a bullish island reversal.
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
How the F do they know about regional changes?
I'd like to believe it's true as if Glasgae, Edinboro and Aberdeen all go NO then NO must very likely win.
But I am deeply suspicious of their info. Who or what is their source?
Maybe Beth Rigby doesn't understand betting either. It looks like she's noted the change in prices and thinks they're making a prediction, rather than responding to the market.
How did your interview go?
I think it went well, thanks for asking and thanks to all those who wished me luck. I decided it was best not ask about what anti-money is, or how on earth one could launder such a thing! I'll know if I got the job by the end of the week..
Serious question -- what is an anti-money laundering firm? Don't we have the police for that sort of thing?
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That and what terms they'll have to agree to to get all 28 existing members to sign (rebate, Schengen, VAT etc).
I see no reason why the EU would be minded to give Scotland any concessions or opt-outs. It's not like the EU is that high on Scottish haddock.
Scotland will be desperate to get in, the other countries will play hardball - there will be no opt outs. They might even have to join Schengen, which would mean a border at Berwick.
Ironically, Scotland will need FUK to help argue its case in Brussels. Another reason Salmond will have little leverage with London once he gets a YES vote.
It is odd. Right now London is desperate to keep Scotland in, and will offer almost anything: Scotland holds the cards. But if Scotland votes YES, then Scottish power drains away immediately, and we're back to AD 1705, and the Scots desperately need the English to help, and the English London haves all the money and power.
question - is (or has) postal voting %age a good proxy for overall turnout?
Seen lots of reports of very high returns for postal votes so far, Edinburgh CC today reported 90% of postal votes returned so far.
Could this be a big indicator for the turnout markets?
Where did you get that figure from, DB?
All I have heard so far is 80% returns across Scotland, but that was a few days ago. It kind of implies 85% in total but it would be nice to know the exact figure now.
NickP reckons that in GEs postal votes run about 15% ahead of general turnout, but that surely would not translate directly to a referendum, and in any case, at very high turnout levels the figures become distorted.
Some facts would be helpful and we're not getting many at the moment.
Unless of course they decide to reject their share of the debt (est: £120bn).
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That's an enormously long time to have horrible business uncertainty.
There must be a lot of businessmen and women in Scotland right now who are totally incontinent with anxiety.
I think Tierney says, and others follow him, that if they don't get ratification then they will have some kind of special status according them rights and obligations as though they were a member from date of independence.
As you say, other EU countries might have reservations but everyone (apart from rUK!) is theoretically in favour of an expanded EU although it is no doubt problematic for eg. Spain.
You could quite easily put "Should the UK be an independent country" as the question referendum on leaving the EU. How on earth did they get allowed to put that on the ballot paper.
As Eck wants to join the EU IMHO "Should Scotland be an independent country" could be construed as misleading; as being an independent country is not offer, only a change from being a UK dependency to an EU dependency
Which is not a pedantic thing to say post Lisbon, now that the EU has a legal personality and can issue regulations with the force of law not just directives to member governments asking them to change their law.
Someone asked me a couple of days back on what grounds legal challenges could be made if the result was very close Yes. There is one.
Brain of Britain is on , next you will be saying Germany is not an independent country because it is in the EU, barking.
Germany is the EU (at least the eurozone bit). All countries in the eurozone get their orders from Berlin.
France, Italy , do you need any more to make you laugh louder at the cretin's suggestion
Yes even France and Italy get their orders from Berlin. A few reminders for you:
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That and what terms they'll have to agree to to get all 28 existing members to sign (rebate, Schengen, VAT etc).
malcolm's already told us that's wholly unnecessary, and that being granted membership is a foregone conclusion.
A mere formality.
That particular poster is wrong on that - as he is wrong on many things. But there we go.
5% VAT on all food will be the least of the worries for them when it comes to that negotiation. EU member states will not give the Scottish application an easy ride. The fastest process to date from application to accession is 3 years 8 months - any application by iScotland will take at least 4 years and cost them dearly in terms of concessions necessary to make it happen.
Unless of course they decide to reject their share of the debt (est: £120bn).
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That's an enormously long time to have horrible business uncertainty.
There must be a lot of businessmen and women in Scotland right now who are totally incontinent with anxiety.
While that's true, so long as it's not a UDI, then there would almost certainly be a free trade, free movement of people deal on day one (for which Scotland, like Norway, will have to pay a large, possibly €1-2bn a year, cheque).
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
How the F do they know about regional changes?
I'd like to believe it's true as if Glasgae, Edinboro and Aberdeen all go NO then NO must very likely win.
But I am deeply suspicious of their info. Who or what is their source?
Maybe Beth Rigby doesn't understand betting either. It looks like she's noted the change in prices and thinks they're making a prediction, rather than responding to the market.
How did your interview go?
I think it went well, thanks for asking and thanks to all those who wished me luck. I decided it was best not ask about what anti-money is, or how on earth one could launder such a thing! I'll know if I got the job by the end of the week..
Serious question -- what is an anti-money laundering firm? Don't we have the police for that sort of thing?
Financial firms are required to do the KYC on their clients, the main purpose of this is to avoid money laundering. The firms can't say to the police "we don't know if this guy's money laundering, check him out for us" and if the firm isn't big enough to have its own anti money laundering department then they contract it out.
The wisdom (or not, depending on your point of view) of Taxi Drivers:
Tom Newton Dunn: Thick people are voting Yes because they think their benefits will go up," says my No-voting Edinburgh taxi driver. "And the oil will pay."
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That and what terms they'll have to agree to to get all 28 existing members to sign (rebate, Schengen, VAT etc).
I see no reason why the EU would be minded to give Scotland any concessions or opt-outs. It's not like the EU is that high on Scottish haddock.
Scotland will be desperate to get in, the other countries will play hardball - there will be no opt outs. They might even have to join Schengen, which would mean a border at Berwick.
Ironically, Scotland will need FUK to help argue its case in Brussels. Another reason Salmond will have little leverage with London once he gets a YES vote.
It is odd. Right now London is desperate to keep Scotland in, and will offer almost anything: Scotland holds the cards. But if Scotland votes YES, then Scottish power drains away immediately, and we're back to AD 1705, and the Scots desperately need the English to help, and the English have all the money and power.
Making them join Schengen would be fun for other member states because it would annoy Cameron as well, after he's spent four years dicking them around. You might even end up with a situation where rUK ended up outside the EU, but inside Schengen.
The wisdom (or not, depending on your point of view) of Taxi Drivers:
Tom Newton Dunn: Thick people are voting Yes because they think their benefits will go up," says my No-voting Edinburgh taxi driver. "And the oil will pay."
Thick people will be in for a nasty surprise when their benefits don't go up.
Eck will be in for a nasty surprise when their benefits don't go up.
Besides, haven't we been told that the legions of unemployed will rise from their armchairs, and become Wee Dickie Branson's when Scotland becomes independent?
I'm fed up of our money in the South East being handed over to the Scots so they can get higher levels of spending than we get. The fact it's now being done to reward them for disloyalty just makes it worse.
The idea of the man that lost the Union, guaranteeing economic pain for all, still leading the Conservatives into the next General Election is insane.
It would be a lot like the Tories in 1997 campaigning on having fixed the economy. What fixed the economy was the demolition of their strategy by the City. The recovery was in spite of them not because of them.
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That and what terms they'll have to agree to to get all 28 existing members to sign (rebate, Schengen, VAT etc).
I see no reason why the EU would be minded to give Scotland any concessions or opt-outs. It's not like the EU is that high on Scottish haddock.
Scotland will be desperate to get in, the other countries will play hardball - there will be no opt outs. They might even have to join Schengen, which would mean a border at Berwick.
Ironically, Scotland will need FUK to help argue its case in Brussels. Another reason Salmond will have little leverage with London once he gets a YES vote.
It is odd. Right now London is desperate to keep Scotland in, and will offer almost anything: Scotland holds the cards. But if Scotland votes YES, then Scottish power drains away immediately, and we're back to AD 1705, and the Scots desperately need the English to help, and the English have all the money and power.
Making them join Schengen would be fun for other member states because it would annoy Cameron as well, after he's spent four years dicking them around. You might even end up with a situation where rUK ended up outside the EU, but inside Schengen.
There's no way in hell the UK will end up inside Schengen. Border crossings at Berwick would be a bloody nuisance, but nowhere near as bad as letting anyone that gets into Greece or Romania being able to smuggle into the UK.
question - is (or has) postal voting %age a good proxy for overall turnout?
Seen lots of reports of very high returns for postal votes so far, Edinburgh CC today reported 90% of postal votes returned so far.
Could this be a big indicator for the turnout markets?
Where did you get that figure from, DB?
All I have heard so far is 80% returns across Scotland, but that was a few days ago. It kind of implies 85% in total but it would be nice to know the exact figure now.
NickP reckons that in GEs postal votes run about 15% ahead of general turnout, but that surely would not translate directly to a referendum, and in any case, at very high turnout levels the figures become distorted.
Some facts would be helpful and we're not getting many at the moment.
Edinburgh Council @Edinburgh_CC · 21m Almost 90% of our postal voters have returned their votes with one day to go until the Referendum #indyref http://bit.ly/1uH1de8
Unless of course they decide to reject their share of the debt (est: £120bn).
They will almost certainly succeed in their attempt to rejoin (unless, as you say, they renege on debt - or they decide they actually quite like being on their own (unlikely)).
It's question of how long it will take. Spanish politicians, from the PM down, are saying anything from five to eight years.
That's an enormously long time to have horrible business uncertainty.
There must be a lot of businessmen and women in Scotland right now who are totally incontinent with anxiety.
While that's true, so long as it's not a UDI, then there would almost certainly be a free trade, free movement of people deal on day one (for which Scotland, like Norway, will have to pay a large, possibly €1-2bn a year, cheque).
That would be a lot less per capita than current EU membership fees.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
EWNI. It's their guards and their frontier.
It could be self-funding via a visa charge. Lots of mid east countries fund their immigration controls this way.
There's a quip in there about the middle east, Scotland, and backward semi-feudal oil-dependent sectarian kleptocracies, but it's not quite coming together.
question - is (or has) postal voting %age a good proxy for overall turnout?
Seen lots of reports of very high returns for postal votes so far, Edinburgh CC today reported 90% of postal votes returned so far.
Could this be a big indicator for the turnout markets?
Where did you get that figure from, DB?
All I have heard so far is 80% returns across Scotland, but that was a few days ago. It kind of implies 85% in total but it would be nice to know the exact figure now.
NickP reckons that in GEs postal votes run about 15% ahead of general turnout, but that surely would not translate directly to a referendum, and in any case, at very high turnout levels the figures become distorted.
Some facts would be helpful and we're not getting many at the moment.
Dundee is getting unaccustomed attention, the normal lack of which may contribute to a high YES vote.
Dundee wouldn't be at the top of most people's tourist destinations, but if you are looking for a weekend away, you might be surprised however. The sights include Dundee whaler RMS Discovery used for Robert Scott's first Antarctic expedition and HMS Unicorn, an intact early nineteenth century sailing frigate. It has an excellent repertory theatre, a massive Egyptian temple style concert hall and a stunning high Victorian art gallery where the building is as much of a work of art as the contents. Getting away, you have Angus behind you, which is perhaps the most underrated tourism area in all of Scotland. To wrap up - plenty of decent cafes, restaurants and hotels.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
No, they're outside. But they're only outside because the UK is. So if Scotland had to go in, you could imagine they'd be the next domino to fall, which puts more pressure on rUK to go in as well.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
I'm fed up of our money in the South East being handed over to the Scots so they can get higher levels of spending than we get. The fact it's now being done to reward them for disloyalty just makes it worse.
The idea of the man that lost the Union, guaranteeing economic pain for all, still leading the Conservatives into the next General Election is insane.
It would be a lot like the Tories in 1997 campaigning on having fixed the economy. What fixed the economy was the demolition of their strategy by the City. The recovery was in spite of them not because of them.
Chutzpah - whips up hatred of immigrants then complains when it's done to him. A reflective person would, well, reflect on that.
Nonsense. UKIP supporters have never disrupted the events of other parties. You can't say that for nationalists. Or, for that matter, supporters of the established parties at UKIP rallies.
For goodness sake, he'd have to be pretty foolish to "whip up hatred of immigrants" seeing that he's married to one.
question - is (or has) postal voting %age a good proxy for overall turnout?
Seen lots of reports of very high returns for postal votes so far, Edinburgh CC today reported 90% of postal votes returned so far.
Could this be a big indicator for the turnout markets?
Where did you get that figure from, DB?
All I have heard so far is 80% returns across Scotland, but that was a few days ago. It kind of implies 85% in total but it would be nice to know the exact figure now.
NickP reckons that in GEs postal votes run about 15% ahead of general turnout, but that surely would not translate directly to a referendum, and in any case, at very high turnout levels the figures become distorted.
Some facts would be helpful and we're not getting many at the moment.
I saw Sporting had again tweaked up their spread this morning - it's now 82.5/84% - but I couldn't see any justification for it, apart of course from weight of money.
Scotland can expect to be thrust outside the EU, for five years, minimum. With all that means for investment, business, jobs.
Will the Scots really vote for this??
If Scotland is forced out of the EU for a few years, then we should see what the effect of BOO is on a country very similar to rUK. It may be a useful lesson before any Brexit referendum.
I can remember when pb Nats were reassuring us that Scotland would remain a member of the EU and wouldn't even have to rejoin.
That was about three months ago. Now they've essentially admitted that was a total lie, and instead that say Ooh it will be easy, take 18 months, bish bosh, then we're back in the EU. And that's another lie.
Pity the Scots if they buy this guff.
What bollocks, what makes you an expert to say it is a lie. Only a thicko would make such a stupid statement. You may think it will take longer but it is purely conjecture and bias that drives that. It is as likely to be 18 months or less as it is to be many years.
There is a disagreement about whether Scotland can use article 48 or not. If they cannot do so, then they would have to use article 49 which is a new application that would take atleast 5 years. So on the basis of not being able to apply until say 2015, it won't be until sometime after 2020 that Scotland might be back in the EU.
So there could be a period of say 4 years when Scotland is not a member of the EU. During that time, Scottish voters may decide that they are quite happy not being in the EU, as they may see the advantage of being totally independent.
Just not plausible
Why is this not plausible ? I have read numerous articles online and there is a disagreement about how Scotland would enter into the EU as an independent nation.
Don't believe for a moment and indpendent Scottish Government will resist imposing VAT on food. They will be desperate for the revenue.
Pace George Orwell, they'll have a story ready to hand:
"Do you know what would happen if we pigs failed in our duty? Jones would come back! Yes, Jones would come back! Surely, comrades," cried Squealer almost pleadingly, skipping from side to side and whisking his tail, "surely there is no one among you who wants to see Jones come back?"
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
I stand corrected - Eire isn't in Schengen. Which leads to a question for Neil - if Scotland was, would they want to be?
No, they got an opt out because they preferred to be in the Common Travel Area (the British isles)
Salmond says he wants to stay in the Common Travel Area (something else not within his gift.....)
Common Travel Area would make sense for both rEngland and iScotland, so probably no argument over that one.
Indeed but Scotland is unlikely to be allowed into the EU without being in Schengen. Not impossible sure, but likely. You then either have a guarded manned border or rUK effectively joins Schengen de facto.
I'm fed up of our money in the South East being handed over to the Scots so they can get higher levels of spending than we get. The fact it's now being done to reward them for disloyalty just makes it worse.
The idea of the man that lost the Union, guaranteeing economic pain for all, still leading the Conservatives into the next General Election is insane.
It would be a lot like the Tories in 1997 campaigning on having fixed the economy. What fixed the economy was the demolition of their strategy by the City. The recovery was in spite of them not because of them.
Chutzpah - whips up hatred of immigrants then complains when it's done to him. A reflective person would, well, reflect on that.
Nonsense. UKIP supporters have never disrupted the events of other parties. You can't say that for nationalists. Or, for that matter, supporters of the established parties at UKIP rallies.
For goodness sake, he'd have to be pretty foolish to "whip up hatred of immigrants" seeing that he's married to one.
Unless he's just another corrupt, hypocritical politician. Expenses and having a personal immigrant support this hypothesis.
I went to Dundee 40 years ago, it was the oddest thing to see acres of the city centre demolished with just isolated church spires sticking up. What does it look like now?
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
I'm not saying the controls at Heathrow or anywhere else are perfect (far from it I'm sure), but if they are so cosmetic why don't the migrants camped in Calais merely walk across............?
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
EWNI. It's their guards and their frontier.
hmmm
so if say food works out cheaper in Carlisle the SG is just going to let Scots take van loads of the stuff home ? Or if we send all our kids NOTB for "asylum" and free Uni fees the SG will say keep sending them?
Can't really see it somehow. If one side puts up a border the other will have to as well.
Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question. .
The what? Good luck with making it a doorstep issue, especially as we've all just promised to keep matters as they are, only more so.
And I'd like to believe that the issue will be closed down by a No tomorrow, but frankly I doubt it.
True I suspect, it is not a great one on the doorstep, but how is it right I in Cardiff get a more valuable vote than someone from Bristol just a stone's throw away. I get a say on Bristol schools, NHS, etc whereas someone there gets no effective say in my NHS, or schools. If we start devolving serious tax powers too to Scotland it gets even worse.
Isn't Ed standing on "fairness" and "standing up to vested interest"?
Well, my post was a wind-up (got some takers I see), but to give a serious answer: I think there are a lot of bodges and irregularities in our constitutional and electoral system and I would quite like to see a constitutional convention try to sort them out, perhaps ending with some serious devolution to local areas. But as an electoral issue it won't work - as we saw with AV (Tories) and regional assemblies (Labour), people rapidly lose interest in anything like that (and I say that as someone who was in favour of both).
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
I stand corrected - Eire isn't in Schengen. Which leads to a question for Neil - if Scotland was, would they want to be?
No, they got an opt out because they preferred to be in the Common Travel Area (the British isles)
Salmond says he wants to stay in the Common Travel Area (something else not within his gift.....)
Common Travel Area would make sense for both rEngland and iScotland, so probably no argument over that one.
Yes, unfortunately all other new EU entrants have to sign up to Schengen (and the Euro) - so the chances of Scotland getting the EU to i) agree opt outs in the first place then ii) get those opt outs past 28 Parliaments, may be 'optimistic'.....
I went to Dundee 40 years ago, it was the oddest thing to see acres of the city centre demolished with just isolated church spires sticking up. What does it look like now?
Dundee is getting unaccustomed attention, the normal lack of which may contribute to a high YES vote.
Dundee wouldn't be at the top of most people's tourist destinations, but if you are looking for a weekend away, you might be surprised however. The sights include Dundee whaler RMS Discovery used for Robert Scott's first Antarctic expedition and HMS Unicorn, an intact early nineteenth century sailing frigate. It has an excellent repertory theatre, a massive Egyptian temple style concert hall and a stunning high Victorian art gallery where the building is as much of a work of art as the contents. Getting away, you have Angus behind you, which is perhaps the most underrated tourism area in all of Scotland. To wrap up - plenty of decent cafes, restaurants and hotels.
--- End of Visit Dundee commercial
It looks the same. I don't think anyone would say it's a beautiful city. But it's a more interesting city than you might think - see my tourism note
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
I'm not saying the controls at Heathrow or anywhere else are perfect (far from it I'm sure), but if they are so cosmetic why don't the migrants camped in Calais merely walk across............?
I did say _largely_ cosmetic... But it can't be entirely hopeless or they wouldn't bother camping there. And those will be the minority of people who aren't allowed to enter the country at all, whereas a lot of actual illegal immigration will be from people entering the country legally for what's supposed to be a short-term visit then staying.
I went to Dundee 40 years ago, it was the oddest thing to see acres of the city centre demolished with just isolated church spires sticking up. What does it look like now?
Dundee is getting unaccustomed attention, the normal lack of which may contribute to a high YES vote.
Dundee wouldn't be at the top of most people's tourist destinations, but if you are looking for a weekend away, you might be surprised however. The sights include Dundee whaler RMS Discovery used for Robert Scott's first Antarctic expedition and HMS Unicorn, an intact early nineteenth century sailing frigate. It has an excellent repertory theatre, a massive Egyptian temple style concert hall and a stunning high Victorian art gallery where the building is as much of a work of art as the contents. Getting away, you have Angus behind you, which is perhaps the most underrated tourism area in all of Scotland. To wrap up - plenty of decent cafes, restaurants and hotels.
--- End of Visit Dundee commercial
It looks the same. I don't think anyone would say it's a beautiful city. But it's a more interesting city than you might think - see my tourism note
When I used to live near there a relation once remarked 'no city in Western Europe has a more beautiful setting - or is uglier.....'
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
I'm not saying the controls at Heathrow or anywhere else are perfect (far from it I'm sure), but if they are so cosmetic why don't the migrants camped in Calais merely walk across............?
I did say _largely_ cosmetic... But it can't be entirely hopeless or they wouldn't bother camping there. And those will be the minority of people who aren't allowed to enter the country at all, whereas a lot of actual illegal immigration will be from people entering the country legally for what's supposed to be a short-term visit then staying.
I think a lot of people are denied tourist visas if they don't have a job and house to go back to.
EDIT: Or at least, they're supposed to be. No idea if this is another thing Home Office agencies aren't bothering to actually enforce...
Calm down, chaps. You're getting yourselves into a ridiculous flap over nothing.
1. The likelihood is that it's a No, for the reasons very succinctly laid out in Shadsy's excellent piece.
2. If it's a No, Cameron is safe. All the fuss about Barnett will be forgotten rapidly. This is especially true if, as is likely, the margin is reasonably big.
3. In fact, in the event of a clear No, Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question.
4. In the unlikely event that it's a Yes, things are much more unpredictable. The likelihood is that Cameron will remain PM, although I agree there's a small chance that he might resign. In practice the focus will be on the enormity of the shock, in the EU as well as in the UK. That shock will be bigger for Labour than for the Conservatives, of course, for all the reasons SeanT has eloquently expressed in the past.
1. The polls say it's too close to call.
2. Yes, if its NO, Cameron wont resign.
3. Even if NO wins by a small margin as polls suggest, Cameron will take no credit since NO had been sliding for weeks until westminster panicked, there is no credit for panicked reactions.
4. If its a YES then Cameron will not remain PM even if he wanted to, the 1922 committee will finish him off with the backbench letters of no confidence.
Bollocks! Every one knows that if NO prevails, it was Gordon wot did it ! He even frightened off that scum Murdoch !
Too true. Scottish Tories (such as they are) were voting NO anyway and nobody else would give a ff what Cameron thinks. If NO does win then Brown's influence in stemming the Labour vote going to YES will have been pivotal.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
EWNI. It's their guards and their frontier.
hmmm
so if say food works out cheaper in Carlisle the SG is just going to let Scots take van loads of the stuff home ? Or if we send all our kids NOTB for "asylum" and free Uni fees the SG will say keep sending them?
Can't really see it somehow. If one side puts up a border the other will have to as well.
Sure, that's normal for a border country. The same happens for example between north and south Ireland, USA/Canada, Switzerland/France.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
I stand corrected - Eire isn't in Schengen. Which leads to a question for Neil - if Scotland was, would they want to be?
No, they got an opt out because they preferred to be in the Common Travel Area (the British isles)
Salmond says he wants to stay in the Common Travel Area (something else not within his gift.....)
Common Travel Area would make sense for both rEngland and iScotland, so probably no argument over that one.
Yes, unfortunately all other new EU entrants have to sign up to Schengen (and the Euro) - so the chances of Scotland getting the EU to i) agree opt outs in the first place then ii) get those opt outs past 28 Parliaments, may be 'optimistic'.....
I think he's right. It doesn't really bother other EU nations either way if Scotland is in Schengen or not. But the Euro they desperately need propping up, so they'll twist arms to make sure that happens.
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
Is there any particular reason that Dundee is the most pro-independence of Scottish cities?
All the bookies seem to have it on the best odds.
Dundee is a pretty remote place, has a similar feeling to Hull in some ways. The SNP have had a decent foothold in the city for a while, combined with a lack of links to other parts of Scotland/UK, and thus a greater willingness to 'go it alone' Id imagine.
Aberdeen would probably be similar were it not for the oil and prosperity.
Remote? Dundee is 45 mins from Edinburgh, Glasgow not much more than an hour, Aberdeen likewise and Perth just down the road.
Having been to Hull a few times, i can tell you it is nothing like it.
As said previously though, Dundee has turned a huge corner in the last 10 years and the future looks good - that just happens to coincide with the SNP taking the lead in the city council and at Holyrood.
Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question. .
The what? Good luck with making it a doorstep issue, especially as we've all just promised to keep matters as they are, only more so.
And I'd like to believe that the issue will be closed down by a No tomorrow, but frankly I doubt it.
True I suspect, it is not a great one on the doorstep, but how is it right I in Cardiff get a more valuable vote than someone from Bristol just a stone's throw away. I get a say on Bristol schools, NHS, etc whereas someone there gets no effective say in my NHS, or schools. If we start devolving serious tax powers too to Scotland it gets even worse.
Isn't Ed standing on "fairness" and "standing up to vested interest"?
Well, my post was a wind-up (got some takers I see), but to give a serious answer: I think there are a lot of bodges and irregularities in our constitutional and electoral system and I would quite like to see a constitutional convention try to sort them out, perhaps ending with some serious devolution to local areas. But as an electoral issue it won't work - as we saw with AV (Tories) and regional assemblies (Labour), people rapidly lose interest in anything like that (and I say that as someone who was in favour of both).
Yes point taken there have always been bodges (N Ireland had MP's 1922-72 while devolved I believe but as there were only 12, I think, and 19 now, the bodge was tiny), but when the bodges reach a certain level they become genuine injustices. I realise the complaints about "two classes of MP" are a point, but at present we have four classes of voter, with the Scots, Welsh, and N Irish all having "better" votes than the English. The situation in an event of a No is about to get worse by an unspecified amount.
I do agree with your point about some form of convention to iron this out as best we can (Carwyn Jones to be fair has already been calling for this for a while).
Is it me, or are the polls 'too' similar? I'm not suggesting anything, but it is convenient that 48/52 leaves them with the most wiggle room over supporting what is likely to be the actual result.
EDIT: Or at least, they're supposed to be. No idea if this is another thing Home Office agencies aren't bothering to actually enforce...
Well here's the thing. Pretty much every minister responsible in the history of ever has always presided over a border security shambles. Either the cabinet sorting hat always plonks the useless ministers in the Home Office or borders can't actually do what the voters expect them to be able to.
Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question. .
The what? Good luck with making it a doorstep issue, especially as we've all just promised to keep matters as they are, only more so.
And I'd like to believe that the issue will be closed down by a No tomorrow, but frankly I doubt it.
True I suspect, it is not a great one on the doorstep, but how is it right I in Cardiff get a more valuable vote than someone from Bristol just a stone's throw away. I get a say on Bristol schools, NHS, etc whereas someone there gets no effective say in my NHS, or schools. If we start devolving serious tax powers too to Scotland it gets even worse.
Isn't Ed standing on "fairness" and "standing up to vested interest"?
Well, my post was a wind-up (got some takers I see), but to give a serious answer: I think there are a lot of bodges and irregularities in our constitutional and electoral system and I would quite like to see a constitutional convention try to sort them out, perhaps ending with some serious devolution to local areas. But as an electoral issue it won't work - as we saw with AV (Tories) and regional assemblies (Labour), people rapidly lose interest in anything like that (and I say that as someone who was in favour of both).
Ok then Mr Palmer. What will you tell hard up families living out of Foodbanks and whose kids have no chance of going to University because they will never be able to afford it or disabled folk whose benefits have just been cut or those in need of treatment who have been told by NICE they can't have it because its too expensive is partly because Ed Miliband and Gordon Brown (amongst others) promised the money to Scotland to ensure that Fred Goodwin can get free prescriptions and JK Rowlings kid can have a free University education?
NO backers ought to get over to SkyBet cos you can get a stunning 5/4 that the NO vote percentage will be 50 to 55%. That is miles better than the headline price of 2/9.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
I'm not saying the controls at Heathrow or anywhere else are perfect (far from it I'm sure), but if they are so cosmetic why don't the migrants camped in Calais merely walk across............?
I did say _largely_ cosmetic... But it can't be entirely hopeless or they wouldn't bother camping there. And those will be the minority of people who aren't allowed to enter the country at all, whereas a lot of actual illegal immigration will be from people entering the country legally for what's supposed to be a short-term visit then staying.
Fair point. But I still think an open border such as now will not exist 100% as now if Scotland joined Schengen and rUK didn't. If only for cosmetic reasons so to speak to placate the electors.
If 48 Yes, 52 No is the final result do you think the SNP can benefit at GE2015 ?
I'd have thought a tight No would be a pretty good result for Scotland, like the wife who has let England know she'll leave if she doesn't get "half and his" when they are living together, rather than half and the rest upon divorce. ^_~
Afternoon all and I don't know about the rest of you (other than English PBers who want rid of Scotland) but I am very anxious about tomorrow's result. The feeling is that some in the NO camp, both media chatterati and politicians are becoming complacent that Don't Knows mean NO. The more I am hearing, the more I am leaning to thinking they are all in for a horrible surprise. The concerted effort by the Establishment to brow beat the Scots into voting NO smacks of desperation and what they forget is that with so many of the 1st time registered voters and previous non-voters being C2DE folks, they don't read London newspapers or watch TV news programmes and they certainly don't give a flying fart what some general in London says!!
Looking at the expected declaration times, we might get an indication fairly early on. North Lanarkshire is listed as the 2nd earliest expected declaration at around 2am. If it is any closer than 60 NO 40 YES then I suspect it is going to be a bad night for NO.
North Lanarkshire is pretty much the most rotten of all Scottish Labour's rotten burghs. It was along with Glasgow the safest Labour council in 2012 with 41 seats of out 70 returning Labour councillors. This is Dr John Reid territory. So if it votes anything like YES, it would be as important as Tower Hamlets in London electing a Tory council.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
No, they're outside. But they're only outside because the UK is. So if Scotland had to go in, you could imagine they'd be the next domino to fall, which puts more pressure on rUK to go in as well.
welshowl is right. If you really think the UK - with immigration running into the hundreds of thousands, Eastern European gypsies camped out in Marble Arch, asylum seekers camped out in Brussels, and 45 million people in the world wanting to come here - would find it acceptable for Greece, Slovakia and Romania to police our borders, then you've been detached from politics here for far too long.
I'd make a joke about them spending some time fiddling with the weights to get the poll to align but I think that wouldn't go down well.
If the result is not 48/52 now given that the polling companies have adopted fairly different demographic weightings there should be a polling truth and reconciliation panel.
Calm down, chaps. You're getting yourselves into a ridiculous flap over nothing.
1. The likelihood is that it's a No, for the reasons very succinctly laid out in Shadsy's excellent piece.
2. If it's a No, Cameron is safe. All the fuss about Barnett will be forgotten rapidly. This is especially true if, as is likely, the margin is reasonably big.
3. In fact, in the event of a clear No, Cameron may well end up taking a lot of credit, because he'll have seen off the break-up of the union, closed down the issue, and manoeuvred Labour and the LibDems into a position where they can no longer pretend not to have noticed the West Lothian Question.
4. In the unlikely event that it's a Yes, things are much more unpredictable. The likelihood is that Cameron will remain PM, although I agree there's a small chance that he might resign. In practice the focus will be on the enormity of the shock, in the EU as well as in the UK. That shock will be bigger for Labour than for the Conservatives, of course, for all the reasons SeanT has eloquently expressed in the past.
1. The polls say it's too close to call.
2. Yes, if its NO, Cameron wont resign.
3. Even if NO wins by a small margin as polls suggest, Cameron will take no credit since NO had been sliding for weeks until westminster panicked, there is no credit for panicked reactions.
4. If its a YES then Cameron will not remain PM even if he wanted to, the 1922 committee will finish him off with the backbench letters of no confidence.
Bollocks! Every one knows that if NO prevails, it was Gordon wot did it ! He even frightened off that scum Murdoch !
Too true. Scottish Tories (such as they are) were voting NO anyway and nobody else would give a ff what Cameron thinks. If NO does win then Brown's influence in stemming the Labour vote going to YES will have been pivotal.
But why was Brown's intervention necessary?
Because the Labour-run No campaign was so awful
Why didn't Brown become more involved from an earlier point?
What is wrong with the Labour campaign team that this result is so close?
Brown may have had a positive impact over the past few days - but the blame for the lacklustre performance by No has to be laid firmly at the feet of those in charge of it. Labour.
EDIT: Or at least, they're supposed to be. No idea if this is another thing Home Office agencies aren't bothering to actually enforce...
Well here's the thing. Pretty much every minister responsible in the history of ever has always presided over a border security shambles. Either the cabinet sorting hat always plonks the useless ministers in the Home Office or borders can't actually do what the voters expect them to be able to.
Or the organisation is dysfunctional and the level of talent in the cabinet more broadly is not up to the task of sorting it out. We need someone with a proven executive record of institutional change from the private sector to be appointed and properly sort it out. Not a financial advisor, postman or teacher.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Well if the alternative is the rUK border effectively starts on the like of the borders of Belarus and Turkey I imagine the rUK taxpayer would be only too grateful to have eighty miles of barbed wire from Berwick to the Solway Firth frankly. The Romans did something similar after all.
Effectively the rUK border already does start there. When you've got as much trade going in and out as you do between the UK and Schengen your border controls are inevitably going to be largely cosmetic.
I'm not saying the controls at Heathrow or anywhere else are perfect (far from it I'm sure), but if they are so cosmetic why don't the migrants camped in Calais merely walk across............?
I did say _largely_ cosmetic... But it can't be entirely hopeless or they wouldn't bother camping there. And those will be the minority of people who aren't allowed to enter the country at all, whereas a lot of actual illegal immigration will be from people entering the country legally for what's supposed to be a short-term visit then staying.
Fair point. But I still think an open border such as now will not exist 100% as now if Scotland joined Schengen and rUK didn't. If only for cosmetic reasons so to speak to placate the electors.
@BethRigby: Paddy Power says 3 out of 4 cities look set to vote No. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen odds moving to No. Dundee likely to go Yes #scotref
How the F do they know about regional changes?
I'd like to believe it's true as if Glasgae, Edinboro and Aberdeen all go NO then NO must very likely win.
But I am deeply suspicious of their info. Who or what is their source?
My take is Yes can't win unless Glasgow goes Yes. If Glasgow is 50/50 No wins by 2 to 5 points.
Andy - My take based, on your spreadsheet, is that we'll know by 2.30am when the results are in for Inverclyde. Whichever way Inverclyde votes, that's the way the total vote will go. And that result will be long before neighbouring Glasgow.
Who would pay the astronomical cost of a manned border at Berwick?
Isn't Eire in Schengen? Are there manned Borders betweeen Derry and Donegal?
No, they're outside. But they're only outside because the UK is. So if Scotland had to go in, you could imagine they'd be the next domino to fall, which puts more pressure on rUK to go in as well.
Ireland not in Schengen. Also not Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia and Cyprus but they're all obliged to join as a result of their accession treaties. Some non EU states like Norway and Iceland also in Schengen.
@TSEofPB 1m New panelbase #indyref poll see No 52.6% (+2) Yes 47.4% (-2)
Hmm. Implying a slight, final move to NO, and the status quo?
MOE of course, knife edge, nail biter, blah blah
Have the pollsters entered a Faustian pact to all be as right or as wrong as each other ?
Or are they all super accurate and that is the final result ?
This seems to have been what happened with the final polls in the 1997 Devolution referendum. While the percentage of Don't Knows varied by a few points, the proportion of Yes to No matched the actual result for all polls except one. Make of that what you will.
Panelbase are, I think, the only pollsters showing showing 2011 DNVs as breaking in favour of Independence. They are also the pollsters that weighs DNVs as the lowest percentage of the response.
This is what I mean by radically different demos amongst the pollsters despite coming to the same results.
It's accuracy over the DNV's that I think is key but we have no way of knowing who is doing it right!
Ah,Dundee. I was there last year and popped into Weatherspoons one lunch time. It was a truly depressing experience,filled with middle aged men drinking copious pints of beer,they had them lined up on the table in front of them,and were drinking at a rate of 1 every 10 minutes or so. I stopped for about 30 mins,and left feeling very depressed. To balance things out I found the tour of "Discovery" very uplifting,to think that it was made by Scotsmen renowned for building the best of this type of ship,and the men who sailed to the ends of the earth in her.
Comments
Washington Nationals' win over Atlanta yesterday seals the National League East title for the second time in two years.
Hat tip to Tissue Price who advised grabbing the 20/1 against them winning the World Series way back when the season started. They are currently 11/2, and probably value at that.
Well done, Nationals; well done, TP>
Your friend is obviously a twunt of the first order but for sure all the troughers and me me people will be for NO. I rather doubt though that I am not the only well paid person not in public sector who is YES, we are not all greedy bloodsuckers.
It has suffered from the collapse of the '3 Js' (jam, jute and journalism) without having the greater resources of Glasgow which saw similar industrial contraction - but has now got a thriving computer games industry for example. One weak link is having an airport of any size.....
http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/repository/1997ScottishReferendumAnalysis.pdf#page=8
Still it will be a great issue to spike his leader with (alongside his EU worship) should he get into Downing Street given they will have barely 25% of the electorate's support at best.
malcolm's already told us that's wholly unnecessary, and being granted membership is a foregone conclusion.
Think I'd vote "No" if I could now, I may have voted "Yes" a few days back but Salmond is selling a dream, not reality.
Have added to my YES position....
All I have heard so far is 80% returns across Scotland, but that was a few days ago. It kind of implies 85% in total but it would be nice to know the exact figure now.
NickP reckons that in GEs postal votes run about 15% ahead of general turnout, but that surely would not translate directly to a referendum, and in any case, at very high turnout levels the figures become distorted.
Some facts would be helpful and we're not getting many at the moment.
As you say, other EU countries might have reservations but everyone (apart from rUK!) is theoretically in favour of an expanded EU although it is no doubt problematic for eg. Spain.
A few reminders for you:
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/merkel-under-fire-over-phone-bid-to-oust-berlusconi-6283345.html
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/25/french-government-resigns-francois-hollande-manuel-valls
5% VAT on all food will be the least of the worries for them when it comes to that negotiation. EU member states will not give the Scottish application an easy ride. The fastest process to date from application to accession is 3 years 8 months - any application by iScotland will take at least 4 years and cost them dearly in terms of concessions necessary to make it happen.
Tom Newton Dunn: Thick people are voting Yes because they think their benefits will go up," says my No-voting Edinburgh taxi driver. "And the oil will pay."
Eck will be in for a nasty surprise when their benefits don't go up.
Besides, haven't we been told that the legions of unemployed will rise from their armchairs, and become Wee Dickie Branson's when Scotland becomes independent?
Something else Salmond and Sturgeon haven't been honest about.
Almost 90% of our postal voters have returned their votes with one day to go until the Referendum #indyref http://bit.ly/1uH1de8
I stand corrected - Eire isn't in Schengen. Which leads to a question for Neil - if Scotland was, would they want to be?
There's a quip in there about the middle east, Scotland, and backward semi-feudal oil-dependent sectarian kleptocracies, but it's not quite coming together.
http://www.inverness-courier.co.uk/News/Referendum-postal-votes-flooding-in-16092014.htm
Dundee wouldn't be at the top of most people's tourist destinations, but if you are looking for a weekend away, you might be surprised however. The sights include Dundee whaler RMS Discovery used for Robert Scott's first Antarctic expedition and HMS Unicorn, an intact early nineteenth century sailing frigate. It has an excellent repertory theatre, a massive Egyptian temple style concert hall and a stunning high Victorian art gallery where the building is as much of a work of art as the contents. Getting away, you have Angus behind you, which is perhaps the most underrated tourism area in all of Scotland. To wrap up - plenty of decent cafes, restaurants and hotels.
--- End of Visit Dundee commercial
Salmond says he wants to stay in the Common Travel Area (something else not within his gift.....)
So my prediction based on finger in air and absolutely no knowledge at all is 50.43% Yes / 49.57% No.
For goodness sake, he'd have to be pretty foolish to "whip up hatred of immigrants" seeing that he's married to one.
I saw Sporting had again tweaked up their spread this morning - it's now 82.5/84% - but I couldn't see any justification for it, apart of course from weight of money.
Common Travel Area would make sense for both rEngland and iScotland, so probably no argument over that one.
Falkirk
5/6 NO
5/6 YES
Highland
2/5 NO
7/4 YES
Inverclyde
1/4 NO
11/4 YES
Na h-Eileanan Siar
1/2 YES
6/4 NO
South Lanarkshire
2/5 NO
7/4 YES
"Do you know what would happen if we pigs failed in our duty? Jones would come back! Yes, Jones would come back! Surely, comrades," cried Squealer almost pleadingly, skipping from side to side and whisking his tail, "surely there is no one among you who wants to see Jones come back?"
Cameron has signed something saying that thanks to Scotland's tax raising powers it can determine what it spends on the Scottish Health Service.
He's got his line in place. "You want more money on the Scottish Health Service? Raise it from Scottish taxes."
so if say food works out cheaper in Carlisle the SG is just going to let Scots take van loads of the stuff home ? Or if we send all our kids NOTB for "asylum" and free Uni fees the SG will say keep sending them?
Can't really see it somehow. If one side puts up a border the other will have to as well.
EDIT: Or at least, they're supposed to be. No idea if this is another thing Home Office agencies aren't bothering to actually enforce...
If Scotland votes Yes and joins the EU.
Then Scotland's money will have to be spent on providing free University tuition to English students.
I wonder if those voting Yes realise that "freedom" means spending their own money on the English?
Having been to Hull a few times, i can tell you it is nothing like it.
As said previously though, Dundee has turned a huge corner in the last 10 years and the future looks good - that just happens to coincide with the SNP taking the lead in the city council and at Holyrood.
£10k + at 5.3
We are a house divided this week but still a house.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/yes-or-no-the-little-white-rose-of-scotland-will-bloom-again/
I do agree with your point about some form of convention to iron this out as best we can (Carwyn Jones to be fair has already been calling for this for a while).
Creepy.
I'd have thought a tight No would be a pretty good result for Scotland, like the wife who has let England know she'll leave if she doesn't get "half and his" when they are living together, rather than half and the rest upon divorce. ^_~
Looking at the expected declaration times, we might get an indication fairly early on. North Lanarkshire is listed as the 2nd earliest expected declaration at around 2am. If it is any closer than 60 NO 40 YES then I suspect it is going to be a bad night for NO.
North Lanarkshire is pretty much the most rotten of all Scottish Labour's rotten burghs. It was along with Glasgow the safest Labour council in 2012 with 41 seats of out 70 returning Labour councillors. This is Dr John Reid territory. So if it votes anything like YES, it would be as important as Tower Hamlets in London electing a Tory council.
Or are they all super accurate and that is the final result ?
If the result is not 48/52 now given that the polling companies have adopted fairly different demographic weightings there should be a polling truth and reconciliation panel.
Because the Labour-run No campaign was so awful
Why didn't Brown become more involved from an earlier point?
What is wrong with the Labour campaign team that this result is so close?
Brown may have had a positive impact over the past few days - but the blame for the lacklustre performance by No has to be laid firmly at the feet of those in charge of it. Labour.
Table for panel base
Over representation of English born too.
This is what I mean by radically different demos amongst the pollsters despite coming to the same results.
It's accuracy over the DNV's that I think is key but we have no way of knowing who is doing it right!
I stopped for about 30 mins,and left feeling very depressed.
To balance things out I found the tour of "Discovery" very uplifting,to think that it was made by Scotsmen renowned for building the best of this type of ship,and the men who sailed to the ends of the earth in her.