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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Corporeal suggests that political punters should be rooting against the Pollsters
Here at PB we generally like pollsters (especially if they drop by to read and boost traffic numbers). I’m sure many of them are lovely people (a couple have even retweeted me occasionally) but it’s mostly the polls they produce that we like (sometimes with the slight undercurrent of getting a fix supplied).
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- Salmond is selling a dream and dreams are easier to sell than facts. YES wins
or
- NO wins by a wide margin because of nervous/shy/intimidated voters
All the polls agree on two things, turnout will be high and there are a LOT of "Don't Knows"
Still, I don't think we need to worry. I think we can continue to rely on the markets getting political odds wrong enough for there to be opportunities for profit.
SeanT: 'I cannot believe Scotland is about to vote YES to this package of lies told by Salmond. Perhaps they know it is all lies, yet do not care?'
Lies from yes (the standard type of lies we have at every election: more for free, everything will turn up rosy) v lies from no (we're all doomed 100 times over, even in ways which sound good to me like not being allowed into the EU or not having to guarantee the savings of either English or Scottish residents cos all the banks have buggered off down south). It is all lies, so we're better off sticking to first principles (whatever they might be: varies by voter).
Keeping power as close as feasible to home, screwing Labour, fighting against unfair asymmetric devolution....take your pick.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/09/17/if-this-is-on-a-knife-edge-why-is-yes-72/
Edit: Incidentally, note this: if forced to make a prediction, I think we’ll see a reasonably comfortable NO win by around 55-45.
Boon of ICM and Lyons of Survation
I'm a leftie. I'm a Labour activist in northern England. I'd vote to leave the EU, and I'd vote yes to Scottish independence. There are shades and differences of opinion across all peoples and all parties - where leaders on all sides assume their stated status quo is all, thats when they suddenly wonder why all the muttering against them is going on.
The Prime Minister feels the pressure:
“I have to say that after the events I have been facing over the last few days, assassination would be a welcome release.”
Salmond should be happy the EU has not enforced its normal threshold of 55% as it did in Montenegro.
A "gut feel" on this sort of question would only be valuable if it came from someone who, say, had tipped Obama for POTUS at 50/1.
Which is basically why we shouldn't have postal votes.
So, in the event of widely inaccurate polls, we could see a new ‘Gold Standard’ – or not?
I’ll drink a toast to that.
What if the voters of the UK disagree? We haven't been asked, yet. Although the three main parties are doing their best to deny us a democratic choice by all signing up to it.
http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2014/09/17/actualidad/1410935302_819321.html
It has, however, made a good start with the intimidation squads. Even journalists are starting to stay away...
What will be the price for Scotland remaining in the CTA, using the pound, and even still using pints in pubs and miles on motorways? The centralising and homogenisation instinct of the EU will need to be bought off.
But Ireland and the UK show some/all of these are possible after negotiations. What will Scotland offer in exchange? Scotland will probably be a net contributor from the off too. Guess the rebate is off the table too.
I think in reality that is impossible so they will have seen at least some of the votes....
"Even journalists are starting to stay away..."
Counter intuitively, journalists like a bit of intimidation, it is "news".
And like all "news" it can be spun.
Not that I think a period outside the EU will do them much harm anyway.
malcolm knows better than the Spanish PM.
Eck knows better than the BoE and CoE.
Do all 'Yessers' live in a deluded fantasy world?
There is no evidence to suggest that any possible Scottish application would be any shorter.
"The group which represents Scotland's police officers has strongly criticised "exaggerated rhetoric" about disorder in the referendum campaign."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29235197
Nice thread header!
I've stuck my neck out and predicted 50.29% YES for Double Carpet's Election Game
And banks are falling over themselves in the race to lend Putin and his chums money.
The same goes for working at the count. At the last GE I was counting and could see the bundles stacking up. At one stage I thought Nicholas Soames was going to lose (an impression boosted by he and his staff at one point appearing to running around like headless chickens). As it turned out he won at a canter and finished several lengths ahead of his nearest rival.
Rumours are rumours and no more.
So there could be a period of say 4 years when Scotland is not a member of the EU. During that time, Scottish voters may decide that they are quite happy not being in the EU, as they may see the advantage of being totally independent.
[waves to JonnyJimmy]
Here is the truth which yet again today rejects the unionist lies about this referendum campaign:
"SPF Media Release – Independence Referendum
SCOTTISH POLICE FEDERATION
5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QF
The Scottish Police Federation represents all police officers in the ranks of constable, sergeant, inspector and chief inspector, police cadets and special constables, over 18,500 people, 98% of all police officers in Scotland.
To: News Editor
Date: 17 September 2014
Subject: Independence Referendum
In response to increased press reports and comment implying increased crime and disorder as a consequence of the Independence Referendum Brian Docherty, Chairman of the Scottish Police Federation said;
“The Police Service of Scotland and the men and women who work in it should not be used as a political football at any time and especially so in these last few hours of the referendum campaign.
As I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured.
It was inevitable that the closer we came to the 18th of September passions would increase but that does not justify the exaggerated rhetoric that is being deployed with increased frequency. Any neutral observer could be led to believe Scotland is on the verge of societal disintegration yet nothing could be further from the truth.
Scotland’s citizens are overwhelmingly law abiding and tolerant and it is preposterous to imply that by placing a cross in a box, our citizens will suddenly abandon the personal virtues and values held dear to them all.
At this time it is more important than ever that individuals be they politicians, journalists or whoever should carefully consider their words, maintain level heads and act with respect. Respect is not demonstrated by suggesting a minority of mindless idiots are representative of anything. One of the many joys of this campaign has been how it has awakened political awareness across almost every single section of society. The success enjoyed by the many should not be sullied by the actions of the few.
Police officers must be kept free from the distractions of rhetoric better suited to the playground that the political stump. If crime has been committed it will be investigated and dealt with appropriately but quite simply police officers have better things to do than officiate in spats on social media and respond to baseless speculation of the potential for disorder on and following polling day”
ENDS
For further information contact Lesley Stevenson at 5 Woodside Place, Glasgow, G3 7QF Telephone: 0141 332 5234 Mobile: 07967 104173 Fax: 0141 331 2436
Email: lesley.stevenson@spf.org.uk"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-29234879
Cctv cameras will check for non-payers looking up at the sky.
Shows how inept they have been
WIth respect I think that is very much deniable. There could be a strong argument that the polling should be far MORE accurate in this event than any normal election.
There are only two options to choose from; the question is very clear; there are no electoral impact of third and fourth parties to consider. There is no need to worry about the impact of the electoral system and the vagaries of FPP etc and differential turnout between constituencies etc.
"I have previously stated the referendum debate has been robust but overwhelmingly good natured."
That copper obviously hasn't spent any time on here.
Sorry, Mr. G., but I couldn't resist it.
This is a very long way, in emotional, psychological and "framing effect" terms from: "should scotland remain part of the UK?"
If you have been brought up in Scotland, governed from many miles away, often by leaders who you feel don't represent you, I would contend it's pretty hard not have a visceral response to the question: "should Scotland be an independent country?" That answer might feel like: "of course it should".
If you opt for "no" once inside the ballot box, you are almost saying, with the way the question has been boxed up: "no, I don't think the country is capable of operating alone, we are a pathetic enslaved inferior nation."
I would suggest that in the privacy of the ballot box there are strong framing influences to deter people from saying "no", and perhaps even switch to "yes" on the spur of the moment. Confronted with the ballot paper it feels like such a negative, self-critical, low self-esteem action. Who would want to be part of such negativity...even those who do vote "no" will have to say themselves: "maybe Scotland should be an independent country, but because of my mortgage I am going to vote for something I don't really believe." It's hardly inspirational.
If voters feel there is a real chance of a yes vote, won't they want to be part of that, part of making history, Braveheart etc?
Irvine Welsh suggested that contrary to alot of commentary of people voting for status quo at the last minute and losing their nerve for economic reasons, given the Scottish mind set, many people might say f**k it, and vote yes as an emotional reaction to the ballot paper. I feel the layout of the ballot paper and the psychological forces could reinforce this.
Seriously, if you go into the ballot box and vote, "no, Scotland should not be an independent country", as a proud Scot, aren't you going to feel you are denigrating your own nation that has fought the English for so long?"
If you vote "no", with the question as presented, you are implicitly coming close to saying that Scotland is not CAPABLE of being an independent country. That is something that people who are unsure may be unlikely to do. Particularly if they feel they could be making history...
He's gone if he loses the union. He faces rebellion if he saves it.
Muslims are overwhelmingly good natured.
YouGov - 10pm