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Punters far from convinced that Johnson is going – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,531
    "[overturning Row is] a victory that will almost certainly come at a cost. In Republican circles, a consensus has been forming for weeks that the court’s overturning of a significant — and highly popular — precedent on a deeply felt issue will be a liability for the party in the midterms and beyond, undercutting Republicans to at least some degree with moderates and suburban women."

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/25/the-dog-that-caught-the-car-republicans-brace-for-the-impact-of-reversing-roe-00042387
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    algarkirk said:

    For quite good reasons we rarely think about the amazingly high quality of the UK judiciary. This is on public display daily on the excellent

    https://www.bailii.org/

    website.

    Try a few Court of Appeal and Court of Appeal (Crim Div) judgments.The standard is awesome.

    I saw your comment and I had a random dig.

    "We must know what a Secretary of State is, before we can tell whether he is within the stat. 24 Geo. 2, c. 44. He is.."

    (https://www.bailii.org/ew/cases/EWHC/KB/1765/J98.html)

    Please explain.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Try a wild guess.
    I know. But you don't like to think that, esp with him probably being there for 30 years. What a mess.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    From memory it started off as a standard Trumpian own-the-libs ploy and became almost immediately a massive must-win battle in the culture war.
    Helped in no small measure by all the bullshit claims that were thrown at him by the left in the desperate hope that something would stick...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    Applicant said:

    Helped in no small measure by all the bullshit claims that were thrown at him by the left in the desperate hope that something would stick...
    ISTR the main concern on the left was he would look to overturn Roe v Wade.

    Regardless of your politics, I would point out he has just done so.

    Which means the claims were, in fact, not bullshit.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    DavidL said:

    I thought about replying in some detail to this but silence is a virtue, so I understand. And compatible with a longer career.
    Let me tempt you into indiscretions.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    Andy_JS said:

    "Johnson: I will not undergo psychological transformation after poll defeat"

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-61934851

    thank god for that Johnson as a woman would be too much
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    algarkirk said:

    Let me tempt you into indiscretions.
    https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/cos-general-docs/pdf-docs-for-opinions/2022hcjac20.pdf?sfvrsn=17b41507_1

    Saying nothing but jeez.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330
    slade said:

    Do you know why she lives in Moscow? To follow up on my previous point there were Con and Lab panel members even though they go 3.59% and 1.29% in the Shetland by-election in 2019 (The Lib Dems got 47.86%).
    By her own account Stout has loved Russia and its culture since a teenager, and as a freelance journalist went to live in Moscow at the end of last year - bad timing! This tells the story pretty well.

    https://www.sundaypost.com/fp/jen-stout/

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480

    thank god for that Johnson as a woman would be too much
    The word 'flounce' is going to be very upset. It was just there, on the edge of the limelight.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,330

    thank god for that Johnson as a woman would be too much
    Always here for too much.


  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    ISTR the main concern on the left was he would look to overturn Roe v Wade.

    Regardless of your politics, I would point out he has just done so.

    Which means the claims were, in fact, not bullshit.
    The main concern was the "sexual assault" claims from when he was a student. Or, at least, that's how it looked.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    I refer you to this comment from @Alistair this morning, and this isn't the only state like this.

    In the Wisconsin state Assembly election in 2018 the Dems got 53% of the vote to 45% for the GOP.

    A margin of 8 points.

    There are 99 seats in the Assembly - the GOP won 63 of them for a 27 seat majority. Despite being 8 points behind. As of 2018 It was estimated that the Dems would need to win statewide by 14 points to get a bare majority of 1 seat (my own calculation has it needing to be higher but I defer to the experts on this). The districts have been further gerrymandered since then making the 2022 figure they need to hit some absurd target.
    How the hell is that a democracy? It's closer to what South Africa had during apartheid.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    "[overturning Row is] a victory that will almost certainly come at a cost. In Republican circles, a consensus has been forming for weeks that the court’s overturning of a significant — and highly popular — precedent on a deeply felt issue will be a liability for the party in the midterms and beyond, undercutting Republicans to at least some degree with moderates and suburban women."

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/25/the-dog-that-caught-the-car-republicans-brace-for-the-impact-of-reversing-roe-00042387

    That's pure "centerist-punditbrain" analysis backed by nothing.

    The GOP have just delivered on a 40 year campaign. This has been a multi-generational effort to get here. They are the winning team. American voters love winners - they have utterly invigorated their base who now see the clear prizes of rolling back LGBT rights and other things within their grasp.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited June 2022

    Scrambled eggs?
    Curried eggs was the plat, or rather mot, du jour at the time, as I recall.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,351
    DavidL said:

    How the hell is that a democracy? It's closer to what South Africa had during apartheid.
    Simple answer is that it isn't, really.

    And although neither US party has clean hands, the Republicans are far worse.

    But if power becomes your God, what do you expect to happen?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,155

    Always here for too much.



    Thought I recognised them from some of their tv work.



  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    “I understand precedent and I understand the importance of overturning it” sounds like a statement of intent!
    Point well taken. Didn't say Susan Collins is the brightest blub on the congressional Christmas tree.

    As for Beachboy Brent, precisely the kind of prevarication you'd expect from a creep of his caliber.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    edited June 2022

    Simple answer is that it isn't, really.

    And although neither US party has clean hands, the Republicans are far worse.

    But if power becomes your God, what do you expect to happen?
    PB regulars when Republicans win

    Unfair election! it was Russia/Gerrymandering what won it! what a banana republic blah blah

    PB regulars when Democrats win

    Free and fair election! Suck it up Trump! what a bastion of democracy blah blah
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    algarkirk said:

    This is all horrendous. The whole point of being a judge is that though you bring to it your whole life and experience you don't come to public judgement on any litigable issue until you have heard all sides and considered all the arguments. Not rushing to judgement is exactly what judges are uniquely asked to do.

    And lying IS what's expected from your ideal judge? Somehow doubt that.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    MISTY said:

    PB regulars when Republicans win

    Unfair election! it was Russia/Gerrymandering what won it! what a banana republic blah blah

    PB regulars when Democrats win

    Free and fair election! Suck it up Trump! what a bastion of democracy blah blah
    I doubt anyone here has questioned the US Presidential result.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    First ball after tea!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Looked it up and it's in an area called Crown Hill.
    Your source is slightly flawed. Crown Hill is a separate neighborhood, just west of Greenwood hood.

    Hence Greenwood Auto Show. Helps that all the cars are parked on Greenwood Ave N.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    DavidL said:

    How the hell is that a democracy? It's closer to what South Africa had during apartheid.
    GOP gerrymandering apologists love to say "What about Maryland??!?" in response to thr many many grotesque examples of Republican gerrymandering so I went and checked.

    For the equivalent state body in Maryland the Dems got 99 out of 141 seats on 65% of the vote. So 70% of the seats on a winning margin of 33 points.

    Which seems pretty fair to me.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    "[overturning Row is] a victory that will almost certainly come at a cost. In Republican circles, a consensus has been forming for weeks that the court’s overturning of a significant — and highly popular — precedent on a deeply felt issue will be a liability for the party in the midterms and beyond, undercutting Republicans to at least some degree with moderates and suburban women."

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/25/the-dog-that-caught-the-car-republicans-brace-for-the-impact-of-reversing-roe-00042387

    Maybe. Or maybe not.

    One pollster has pointed out that when RvW was central to the Presidential election debate (2000/2004 and 2016), the republicans won.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,213
    Sandpit said:

    First ball after tea!

    Root could kiss Overton for that!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    And lying IS what's expected from your ideal judge? Somehow doubt that.
    If that is a serious question, No. Why on earth would anyone expect lying from a judge whether ideal or not?

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    DavidL said:

    https://www.scotcourts.gov.uk/docs/default-source/cos-general-docs/pdf-docs-for-opinions/2022hcjac20.pdf?sfvrsn=17b41507_1

    Saying nothing but jeez.....
    Fresh evidence appeals - always sticky wickets. Scottish law a mystery to me however.

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Omnium said:

    I doubt anyone here has questioned the US Presidential result.
    Indeed. So America's a great democracy.

    Until the republicans win something. Then its a banana republic.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    MISTY said:

    Indeed. So America's a great democracy.

    Until the republicans win something. Then its a banana republic.
    Your point being?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kinabalu said:

    I watched the hearings on that guy and could not believe he was being considered for a big important job requiring intellect and maturity.

    Was he chosen solely for his hackneyed right wing politics and pliability?
    Plus his evident willingness - indeed eagerness - to lie to US Senators to their face.

    Like appointing Eddie Haskell to the Court . . . only worse.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    Off topic: Thanks to the people of Skye who rescued that wedding of two strangers. That was kind of them -- and will probably draw some additional tourist traffic for a few years.
    source: https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/american-wedding-saved-on-isle-of-skye-thanks-to-locals/
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,721
    GOP lawmaker says she trusts Utah women to control their ‘intake of semen’ as abortion trigger law goes into effect
    https://twitter.com/MonicaBPotts/status/1540687920851521536
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    CatMan said:

    Root could kiss Overton for that!
    97 an unlucky number. Overton out for 97, Latham and Williamson separated after a stand of 97.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180

    Simple answer is that it isn't, really.

    And although neither US party has clean hands, the Republicans are far worse.

    But if power becomes your God, what do you expect to happen?
    Oh my name it is nothin'
    My age it means less
    The country I come from
    Is called the Midwest
    I's taught and brought up there
    The laws to abide
    And the land that I live in
    Has God on its side.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    edited June 2022
    MISTY said:

    PB regulars when Republicans win

    Unfair election! it was Russia/Gerrymandering what won it! what a banana republic blah blah

    PB regulars when Democrats win

    Free and fair election! Suck it up Trump! what a bastion of democracy blah blah
    The 2020 election featured attempted vote rigging and suppression on a gigantic scale.

    It's just it didn't affect the result as the Republicans weren't very good at it.

    Hence their attempted coup, which they also fortunately weren't very good at.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,351
    Nigelb said:

    GOP lawmaker says she trusts Utah women to control their ‘intake of semen’ as abortion trigger law goes into effect
    https://twitter.com/MonicaBPotts/status/1540687920851521536

    There's an obvious way for the Women of Utah to do that.

    Albeit one that the Men of Utah may not appreciate.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    algarkirk said:

    If that is a serious question, No. Why on earth would anyone expect lying from a judge whether ideal or not?

    Because they've met some?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,626
    Sandpit said:

    First ball after tea!

    Root relieved.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,180
    algarkirk said:

    Fresh evidence appeals - always sticky wickets. Scottish law a mystery to me however.

    Basically, it was found out after the trial that the complainer had given an affidavit which contradicted significant parts of her evidence. On examination the appeal court decided that the affidavit, sworn under oath, was internally inconsistent and not reliable. But they concluded that for that reason the Jury (who knew nothing of it of course) would simply have disregarded it. And still convicted. Beyond a reasonable doubt. I found it extraordinary.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited June 2022
    algarkirk said:

    If that is a serious question, No. Why on earth would anyone expect lying from a judge whether ideal or not?

    Pretty good - or rather bad - reasons for number of US Senators who knew better to believe the bilge that Kavanaugh was pumping.

    Am giving Susan the benefit of the doubt. In her case problem was more stupidity than hypocrisy . . . I think.

    Addendum - one motive for Kavanaugh lying like a rug, was the very fact that his legal credentials were so feeble.

    Which was NOT the case with (for example) Amy Coney Barrett or Neil Gorsuch.

    Which explains why they didn't stoop to the depths plumbed by Beach Boy Brent.
  • ydoethur said:

    The 2020 election featured attempted vote rigging and suppression on a gigantic scale.

    It's just it didn't affect the result as the Republicans weren't very good at it.

    Hence their attempted coup, which they also fortunately weren't very good at.
    While there may be some gerrymandering at play, the Dems biggest problem is that their vote is badly distributed in Wisconsin (as in many other states). They rack up the vote in Milwaukee and Madison, which allows them to win statewide elections but this costs them at elections where the state is split up.

    For example, 6 of 8 congressional districts lean republican but the most democratic district is twice as democratic as the most republican district is republican:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_congressional_districts

    Labour have the same problem to an extent. At the last the Cons won nationally by 11 points but there were about a dozen Labour seats safer than the safest Conservative seat.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    I refer you to this comment from @Alistair this morning, and this isn't the only state like this.

    In the Wisconsin state Assembly election in 2018 the Dems got 53% of the vote to 45% for the GOP.

    A margin of 8 points.

    There are 99 seats in the Assembly - the GOP won 63 of them for a 27 seat majority. Despite being 8 points behind. As of 2018 It was estimated that the Dems would need to win statewide by 14 points to get a bare majority of 1 seat (my own calculation has it needing to be higher but I defer to the experts on this). The districts have been further gerrymandered since then making the 2022 figure they need to hit some absurd target.
    Quite so. In any case I disagree with the notion it should all be down to the voters even if there were a perfect electoral system. There are certain human rights that should be enshrined over and above the hurly burly of politics. One of these is the right of a pregnant woman to choose whether she has the baby or not. This is what Roe did. It cemented that right - which is key to women being able to partake fully in society - such that no politician could take it away.

    Not an absolute right either. Recognizing the moral complexity of the issue, it protected the basic essential right but subject to controls and prohibitions in middle and later pregnancy, tempered the rights of the woman with those of the unborn child, allowed the states to take differing approaches in practice depending on their slant. It addressed the issue in a balanced sensible way, in exactly the place it should have been addressed - constitutionally, outside the executive, protected by the independent judiciary. To trash it like they have is an abomination.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,721
    When the Supreme Court Takes Away a Long-Held Constitutional Right

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/when-the-supreme-court-takes-away-a-long-held-constitutional-right
    … The difference between preserving and eliminating a long-held constitutional right involves a crude reality of political machinations and contingency in filling these seats—which makes it galling to read the Court’s righteous condemnation of Roe v. Wade as an exercise of “raw judicial power,” and its self-portrayal as a picture of proper judicial restraint. It is hard to imagine something more like an exercise of raw judicial power than the Court’s removal of the right to abortion, which is precisely what these Justices were put on the Court to achieve. As the dissent put it, the Court is “rescinding an individual right in its entirety and conferring it on the State, an action the Court takes for the first time in history.”…
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Omnium said:

    Your point being?
    My point being that America cannot be both a great democracy and banana republic in terms of voting. In reality, it is one or the other.

    Unless of course you are a PB regular driven mad by the very idea of Trumpism.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543

    While there may be some gerrymandering at play, the Dems biggest problem is that their vote is badly distributed in Wisconsin (as in many other states). They rack up the vote in Milwaukee and Madison, which allows them to win statewide elections but this costs them at elections where the state is split up.

    For example, 6 of 8 congressional districts lean republican but the most democratic district is twice as democratic as the most republican district is republican:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisconsin's_congressional_districts

    Labour have the same problem to an extent. At the last the Cons won nationally by 11 points but there were about a dozen Labour seats safer than the safest Conservative seat.
    Again, gerrymandering doesn't affect the presidency. Failing to open polling stations and disregarding postal ballots does.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MISTY said:

    Indeed. So America's a great democracy.

    Until the republicans win something. Then its a banana republic.
    For sake of curiosity, what are your views (if any) re: January 6, 2021 assault on US Capitol aimed at overturning the 2020 election?

    Does that factor into your thesis?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit

    The tragic farce of Brexit. Firms that can't export, can't grow their workforces. Tax revenues diverted abroad. An economy 4 or 5% smaller than it should be. Fishermen who have lost their main markets. All predictable, all predicted, dismissed as Project Fear, now the undisputed reality.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    MISTY said:

    My point being that America cannot be both a great democracy and banana republic in terms of voting. In reality, it is one or the other.

    Unless of course you are a PB regular driven mad by the very idea of Trumpism.
    You're a bit harsh there. You're not really a regular these days.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,721
    edited June 2022
    Looks as though Russia is trying to provoke a Ukrainian response against Belarus, in order to draw them fully into the war.
    Pretty sure Ukraine won’t take the bait.

    https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1540619669295566850
    A record number of missiles was fired by Russia on Ukraine this night and morning: more than 60, according to the latest figures. Many were launched from the territory of Belarus. They targeted Kyiv, Lviv, Zhytomyr, Chernihiv, Khmelnytskyi, Dnipro, Mykolayiv, Kharkiv regions
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    MISTY said:

    My point being that America cannot be both a great democracy and banana republic in terms of voting. In reality, it is one or the other.

    Unless of course you are a PB regular driven mad by the very idea of Trumpism.
    The US is neither a great democracy nor a banana republic. Your introduced both terms.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MISTY said:

    Maybe. Or maybe not.

    One pollster has pointed out that when RvW was central to the Presidential election debate (2000/2004 and 2016), the republicans won.
    Not sure "central" is correct, in that other issues were more or equally important in the elections you cite.

    Also, back then the shoe was on the other foot. Roe v Wade was the Law of the Land. Thus energy was more on the side of those wishing to repeal than uphold it.

    But now the worm has turned.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Off topic: Thanks to the people of Skye who rescued that wedding of two strangers. That was kind of them -- and will probably draw some additional tourist traffic for a few years.
    source: https://www.goodnewsnetwork.org/american-wedding-saved-on-isle-of-skye-thanks-to-locals/

    Thanks, Jim, for giving yours truly the perfect excuse to post this:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBSqQPP4aVM

    The Skye Boat Song - Ella Roberts

    Hope they played this song at the wedding!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,721

    There's an obvious way for the Women of Utah to do that.

    Albeit one that the Men of Utah may not appreciate.
    There are other responses.

    https://twitter.com/BWJones/status/1540491567336751105
    As of tomorrow, I am on the open market.

    A well funded, internationally successful scientist is accepting offers from academia and industry in order to leave the state of Utah, taking my team of neuroscientists if they chose to leave with me.

    I will not endanger my team.

    For those asking: Yes, I am serious. Of the 12 people in my lab, 8 are women.

    It is incumbent upon us to do what we can to stand up for the safety of the people around us.

    This legislation makes people less safe.

  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    For sake of curiosity, what are your views (if any) re: January 6, 2021 assault on US Capitol aimed at overturning the 2020 election?

    Does that factor into your thesis?
    Is America a great democracy or is it a third world banana republic?

    Because if its the former you have no right to question the legitimacy of the Wisconsin election. Or the outcome of the 2016 presidential,.

    And if its the latter, then anybody has the right to question the outcome of the 2020 presidential.

    Many criticise Trump for not accepting 2020, a fair criticism.

    But be honest. You don't accept the result of Presidential 2016, or many other elections won by the republicans.

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MISTY said:

    Is America a great democracy or is it a third world banana republic?

    Because if its the former you have no right to question the legitimacy of the Wisconsin election. Or the outcome of the 2016 presidential,.

    And if its the latter, then anybody has the right to question the outcome of the 2020 presidential.

    Many criticise Trump for not accepting 2020, a fair criticism.

    But be honest. You don't accept the result of Presidential 2016, or many other elections won by the republicans.

    You are showing impressive debating skills here. No straw man can feel safe with you about.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Omnium said:

    The US is neither a great democracy nor a banana republic. Your introduced both terms.
    If its neither, then anybody is perfectly within their rights to question any election result there.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    MISTY said:

    If its neither, then anybody is perfectly within their rights to question any election result there.
    Quite true. Questions are always legitimate.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Politico.com - Biden signs gun safety bill, calls SCOTUS abortion ruling 'shocking'
    “I think the Supreme Court has made some terrible decisions," the president said after the Supreme Court revoked the constitutional right to an abortion.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/25/biden-signs-gun-safety-measure-calls-scotus-ruling-shocking-00042409

    SSI - Repeal of Roe v Wade is shocking but hardly surprising.

    Passage of federal gun control measure - no matter how watered down - is both.

    As an optimist, am dwelling right now on the later, not the former.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    DavidL said:

    Basically, it was found out after the trial that the complainer had given an affidavit which contradicted significant parts of her evidence. On examination the appeal court decided that the affidavit, sworn under oath, was internally inconsistent and not reliable. But they concluded that for that reason the Jury (who knew nothing of it of course) would simply have disregarded it. And still convicted. Beyond a reasonable doubt. I found it extraordinary.
    SFAICS the affidavit was from a separate person, not a complainant, whose evidence could have undermined a complainant's credibility. But it's Saturday afternoon and I may be wrong.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    IshmaelZ said:

    You are showing impressive debating skills here. No straw man can feel safe with you about.
    In a way, it's a shame the democrats use a donkey as a symbol and the Republicans an elephant.

    Because the Republicans clearly forget everything inconvenient and at the moment frequently look like asses.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    Andy_JS said:

    They're pretty stupid if they didn't think there was a good chance they would lose the seat. Nearly everyone on here thought it was a strong possibility.
    Not stupid. Dishonest. Pretending it was out of nowhere makes their inaction before acceptable.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594

    Not sure "central" is correct, in that other issues were more or equally important in the elections you cite.

    Also, back then the shoe was on the other foot. Roe v Wade was the Law of the Land. Thus energy was more on the side of those wishing to repeal than uphold it.

    But now the worm has turned.
    Fair point.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073

    Sadly not my car - it was the prettiest on a quick Google search
    It was very straight edged and not rounded, and instantly that didn’t appeal to me. The looooooong bonnet made me think of wacky racers.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    ydoethur said:

    In a way, it's a shame the democrats use a donkey as a symbol and the Republicans an elephant.

    Because the Republicans clearly forget everything inconvenient and at the moment frequently look like asses.
    Those states that are banning abortions will have to face their electorates....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    MISTY said:

    Those states that are banning abortions will have to face their electorates....
    Except those that make it difficult for the wrong sort of people to vote, of course.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    edited June 2022
    Nigelb said:

    When the Supreme Court Takes Away a Long-Held Constitutional Right

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-comment/when-the-supreme-court-takes-away-a-long-held-constitutional-right
    … The difference between preserving and eliminating a long-held constitutional right involves a crude reality of political machinations and contingency in filling these seats—which makes it galling to read the Court’s righteous condemnation of Roe v. Wade as an exercise of “raw judicial power,” and its self-portrayal as a picture of proper judicial restraint. It is hard to imagine something more like an exercise of raw judicial power than the Court’s removal of the right to abortion, which is precisely what these Justices were put on the Court to achieve. As the dissent put it, the Court is “rescinding an individual right in its entirety and conferring it on the State, an action the Court takes for the first time in history.”…

    Not so much political bias as raw politics. Hard to see the 'law' bit at all in the reasoning. Saw a Twitter thing whereby you imagine this is some 3rd world country and how it'd be reported here -

    “Impeached Strongman's Unelected Hand-Picked Clerics Launch Offensive Against Women"

    Not bad. Certainly better than the Times' take - load of vapid waffling nonsense.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    To encourage (perhaps) Leon's interest in Montenegro:

    https://balkaninsight.com/montenegro-home/

    Currently Crna Gora has minority government (a first):

    Opposition Boycotts Election of Montenegro’s First Minority Govt
    Dritan Abazovic became Montenegro's new Prime Minister on Thursday, heading a minority government with a one-year mandate to prepare for early elections next spring [2022].

    https://balkaninsight.com/2022/04/28/opposition-boycotts-election-of-montenegros-first-minority-govt/

    Montenegro’s parliament on Thursday voted in a new minority government, the first in its history, with a one-year mandate to prepare for next spring’s early elections.

    The leader of the Black on White bloc, Dritan Abazovic, was elected Prime Minister by 45 votes in the 81-seat chamber, supported by his own coalition, the pro-Serbian Socialist People’s Party and the former opposition Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, the Social Democratic Party, the Bosniak Party and two ethnic Albanian coalitions.

    The opposition Social Democrats voted against electing the government, while the two largest opposition blocs, For the Future of Montenegro and Peace is Our Nation, which dominated the last government, boycotted the vote. . . .
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,566
    IshmaelZ said:

    You are showing impressive debating skills here. No straw man can feel safe with you about.
    Indeed. The continued attempts at equivalence between grumbling and a very few more than that with dozens of spurious legal challenges and concerted political effort to overturn and instigating a mob, just doesnt work.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,981

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/25/what-have-we-done-six-years-on-uk-counts-the-cost-of-brexit

    The tragic farce of Brexit. Firms that can't export, can't grow their workforces. Tax revenues diverted abroad. An economy 4 or 5% smaller than it should be. Fishermen who have lost their main markets. All predictable, all predicted, dismissed as Project Fear, now the undisputed reality.

    Hmmm. I couldn't get to the end of that - just too depressing - though interesting to note that my own employer does that same thing with the Netherlands proxy mentioned early on. So how much tax is the Exchequer losing when all that's totalled up? But one glimmer of light: Richard Tice says it's all Boris fault, so when he (eventually) departs the Brexit bonanzas will start rolling in!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,480
    MISTY said:

    Those states that are banning abortions will have to face their electorates....
    You used that already. What's the next stunner?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,198

    Because they'd only make five of them, and use bespoke parts.

    They'd also bin their processors much more stringently than any consumer project. (Kerching to the fabs!)

    There's also the problem that if you're only making a handful of things, you really don't want them to fail. In consumer electronics, a return rate of 1% (defects) was not uncommon twenty years ago for cheap stuff -though I believe it has improved since.

    In other words, 1% of units would fail within warranty. But as they're cheap as chips, it didn't matter much.

    If you are only making 10 of something, as opposed to two million, then you cannot afford outright failures. This means you spend much, much more on trying to make certain that the thing you produce works. Costs escalate as you try to get components to 99.999999999% reliability. And you need systems to detect potential failures, and redundancy to protect against them. And rigorous test and maintenance of components whilst in use.

    This is understandable for crewed systems: you do not want to lose people. But does it matter as much for unmanned systems? If the system is much cheaper, and you have more of them, the loss of one does not hurt as much. This then becomes a virtuous cycle: the more you make of them, the cheaper you can make the design.

    And the more you make, the more you learn about the design on how to make it more reliable and cheaper.
    The design and build of military aerospace vehicles resembles to an enormous degree that for space vehicles.

    The fact that the entire space launch market has, fairly recently been dynamited by an entrant who has reduced costs to the point of pricing lower than *anyone* else, is carefully ignored. In the space industry* in particular, but the wider aerospace industry is defiant in its rejection of the possibility that the same is possible there.

    *You still have industry leaders claiming that they can’t do it because … {crickets}
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    It was very straight edged and not rounded, and instantly that didn’t appeal to me. The looooooong bonnet made me think of wacky racers.
    This sort of Beaufighter might be better.

    https://abpic.co.uk/pictures/registration/A8-328

    (A friend of mine has a Beaufighter car. So when he told me about taking it home and working on it, I got very confused because I knew he didn't have a hangar.)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,543
    kle4 said:

    Indeed. The continued attempts at equivalence between grumbling and a very few more than that with dozens of spurious legal challenges and concerted political effort to overturn and instigating a mob, just doesnt work.
    What's more disturbing is that they think it does.

    I mean, are they really *that* deluded? Because if so in the medium term American democracy is finished anyway. The Republicans will never accept any result that doesn't suit them while shouting 'look, squirrel.'

    Perhaps they should rather be pondering why they have only once won the popular vote since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and then only by a wafer thin margin.*

    That's why they keep losing. Not some mythical deep state issue.

    *it should be noted that many Democrats threw around accusations of ballot rigging in key states in 2004 and with hindsight rather foolishly described how it could be done, but Kerry made no effort to overturn the result.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    MISTY said:

    Is America a great democracy or is it a third world banana republic?

    Because if its the former you have no right to question the legitimacy of the Wisconsin election. Or the outcome of the 2016 presidential,.

    And if its the latter, then anybody has the right to question the outcome of the 2020 presidential.

    Many criticise Trump for not accepting 2020, a fair criticism.

    But be honest. You don't accept the result of Presidential 2016, or many other elections won by the republicans.

    Your position is that it must be either perfect and beyond criticism, or worthless and beyond saving?

    Disagree with the core stance there.
    A flawed democracy that is being eroded by deliberate action does not fall under either of the false binary options you give, but resembles the position on the ground far more.

    We can criticise gerrymandering to silence the majority view, whilst also condemning anti-democratic coup attempts. It’s difficult to see how that can be denied, other than assiduous attempts to somehow define it away.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MISTY said:

    Is America a great democracy or is it a third world banana republic?

    Because if its the former you have no right to question the legitimacy of the Wisconsin election. Or the outcome of the 2016 presidential,.

    And if its the latter, then anybody has the right to question the outcome of the 2020 presidential.

    Many criticise Trump for not accepting 2020, a fair criticism.

    But be honest. You don't accept the result of Presidential 2016, or many other elections won by the republicans.

    Not sure what you mean by "question" exactly (or inexactly). In general.

    Nothing wrong with questioning anything, esp. in the midst of a close election count. OR pointing out that Trump was elected with fewer popular votes.

    LOT different from trying to throw out the popular votes of entire states to achieve desired result.

    As for Wisconsin, are you referring to the recall effort(s)?

    Again, laws of the great Badger State provide for recall of just about all elected state & local officials.

    Personally thought the recall campaign was a strategic (or is it tactical?) err by Wisconsin Democrats & labor unions. Cause I figured (correctly) they was nearly all fail. But zero reason to equate this with trying to overturn the Constitution.

    BTW, you have NOT answered MY question? Though you've NOT done any kavanaughing!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    THis thread has had its vote suppressed.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    MISTY said:

    Fair point.
    Really is an open question, to what degree the repeal of Roe v Wade will persuade likely voters OR turn out less-likely ones? AND to what extent this will be to the net benefit of one side or the other?

    Right now conventional wisdom re: both Democratic AND Republican wise guys, is that the Ds will do better on this front.

    BUT so far that's just a theory.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    To encourage (perhaps) Leon's interest in Montenegro:

    https://balkaninsight.com/montenegro-home/

    Currently Crna Gora has minority government (a first):

    Opposition Boycotts Election of Montenegro’s First Minority Govt
    Dritan Abazovic became Montenegro's new Prime Minister on Thursday, heading a minority government with a one-year mandate to prepare for early elections next spring [2022].

    https://balkaninsight.com/2022/04/28/opposition-boycotts-election-of-montenegros-first-minority-govt/

    Montenegro’s parliament on Thursday voted in a new minority government, the first in its history, with a one-year mandate to prepare for next spring’s early elections.

    The leader of the Black on White bloc, Dritan Abazovic, was elected Prime Minister by 45 votes in the 81-seat chamber, supported by his own coalition, the pro-Serbian Socialist People’s Party and the former opposition Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, the Social Democratic Party, the Bosniak Party and two ethnic Albanian coalitions.

    The opposition Social Democrats voted against electing the government, while the two largest opposition blocs, For the Future of Montenegro and Peace is Our Nation, which dominated the last government, boycotted the vote. . . .

    The most famous (at least in the west) Montenegrin, Nero Wolfe, doesn't exist. Is this a record?

  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,262
    I was against gerrymandering in the United States before it was cool to be against it. I opposed it when it was (mostly) done by Democrats, for the same reason I oppose it now, when it is done by both parties.

    When did Republicans get the chance to get in on the act in a big way? After the 2010 election, where they swept into power in so many states. (Considering the results of the 1994 and 2010 elections, I think one can say that the two politicians who have done the most for Republicans in recent decades are . . . . Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.)

    For those who need examples of current Democratic gerrymandering attempts, do a search on New York or Maryland House seats.

    It is correct to say that the concentration of Democrats in large cities does give Republicans a natural advantage. Democrats could lessen that by paying more attention to the problems of rural and exurban areas, rather than neglecting them as they have been for years.

    (And, if you want data, the Princeton Gerrymandering project has it: https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/ )
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    kle4 said:

    Indeed. The continued attempts at equivalence between grumbling and a very few more than that with dozens of spurious legal challenges and concerted political effort to overturn and instigating a mob, just doesnt work.
    Yep, a par excellence example of our old 'pal/mate/chum', the kryptonite of good faith debate and punditry, False Equivalence. It's a technique beloved of the Right. And if you call them for it - False Equivalence - they just bat it off and claim the Left do it *exactly* as much as the Right.

    Head wall, head wall, head wall.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    What's more disturbing is that they think it does.

    I mean, are they really *that* deluded? Because if so in the medium term American democracy is finished anyway. The Republicans will never accept any result that doesn't suit them while shouting 'look, squirrel.'

    Perhaps they should rather be pondering why they have only once won the popular vote since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and then only by a wafer thin margin.*

    That's why they keep losing. Not some mythical deep state issue.

    *it should be noted that many Democrats threw around accusations of ballot rigging in key states in 2004 and with hindsight rather foolishly described how it could be done, but Kerry made no effort to overturn the result.
    Mostly because they don't need to win the popular vote...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited June 2022

    I was against gerrymandering in the United States before it was cool to be against it. I opposed it when it was (mostly) done by Democrats, for the same reason I oppose it now, when it is done by both parties.

    When did Republicans get the chance to get in on the act in a big way? After the 2010 election, where they swept into power in so many states. (Considering the results of the 1994 and 2010 elections, I think one can say that the two politicians who have done the most for Republicans in recent decades are . . . . Bill Clinton and Barack Obama.)

    For those who need examples of current Democratic gerrymandering attempts, do a search on New York or Maryland House seats.

    It is correct to say that the concentration of Democrats in large cities does give Republicans a natural advantage. Democrats could lessen that by paying more attention to the problems of rural and exurban areas, rather than neglecting them as they have been for years.

    (And, if you want data, the Princeton Gerrymandering project has it: https://gerrymander.princeton.edu/ )

    House!

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3984607/#Comment_3984607

    GOP gerrymandering apologists love to say "What about Maryland??!?" in response to thr many many grotesque examples of Republican gerrymandering so I went and checked.

    For the equivalent state body in Maryland the Dems got 99 out of 141 seats on 65% of the vote. So 70% of the seats on a winning margin of 33 points.

    Which seems pretty fair to me.


    New York Congressional Seats: in 2020 the GOP got 30% of the seats on 36% of the vote. If the Dems were gerrymandering then they were pretty shit at it.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,173
    New thread.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    Alistair said:

    GOP gerrymandering apologists love to say "What about Maryland??!?" in response to thr many many grotesque examples of Republican gerrymandering so I went and checked.

    For the equivalent state body in Maryland the Dems got 99 out of 141 seats on 65% of the vote. So 70% of the seats on a winning margin of 33 points.

    Which seems pretty fair to me.
    Hey that sounds like False Equivalence from them there GOP apologists!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804

    Always here for too much.


    Deeply preferable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,804
    DavidL said:

    QTWTAIY, hell yes.
    Much rather have you on the Court, David, tory and all. Green card?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,073
    Carnyx said:

    This sort of Beaufighter might be better.

    https://abpic.co.uk/pictures/registration/A8-328

    (A friend of mine has a Beaufighter car. So when he told me about taking it home and working on it, I got very confused because I knew he didn't have a hangar.)
    Not really the bristols I was taking a punning jump at, says so much about the site I suppose 🥹
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,659
    MISTY said:

    PB regulars when Republicans win

    Unfair election! it was Russia/Gerrymandering what won it! what a banana republic blah blah

    PB regulars when Democrats win

    Free and fair election! Suck it up Trump! what a bastion of democracy blah blah
    Biden 51%
    Trump 47%
  • Oliver Dowsett, ffs
This discussion has been closed.