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Punters far from convinced that Johnson is going – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,397
edited July 2022 in General
imagePunters far from convinced that Johnson is going – politicalbetting.com

After the terrible by-election results for the Conservatives, many commentators are suggesting that the time is up for Johnson. Yet as the chart shows that although there has been an uplift in the betting chances of a 2022 exit it is still rated at just a 41% chance.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    How does he go? He won't resign because he has no shame, and Tory MPs won't kick him out because they have no spine.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    The money men would have to cut off party funding and get their editor pals on board.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Probably best he stays the country spirals further into chaos and we may get better leadership later
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,850
    EPG said:

    The money men would have to cut off party funding and get their editor pals on board.

    Even the Russian ones? Boris (and the Tories) had their hands out for money just this week.
    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/conservative-party-donors-drink-dine-125455095.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    FTPT
    algarkirk said:

    show previous quotes
    If this is true it won't survive the voters' scrutiny for long. I shall take leave to doubt it for now. It will only take a matter of months for the statisticians to demonstrate it. And at least we can be sure the Guardian and BBC will be all over it.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6983328/

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    FF43 said:

    show previous quotes
    The Tiverton result is remarkable, obscured by the expectation all along the Lib Dems would swing it. It isn't even a Blue Wall seat and so a natural Lib Dem target.

    Wakefield was a workman like result for Labour. Starmer will be prime minister after the next election if he can maintain that level. There are doubts about the If however.
    Blue Wall is an unusually unhelpful term. Wikipedia says N Shropshire is one, so why Tiverton escapes is beyond me. Anyway it is almost far enough West to be natural liberal country for that reason. My own constituency W Devon has a majority for fatty Cox almost as big as my thingy, but went yellow 1997 and 2001.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Blue Wall is an unusually unhelpful term. Wikipedia says N Shropshire is one, so why Tiverton escapes is beyond me. Anyway it is almost far enough West to be natural liberal country for that reason. My own constituency W Devon has a majority for fatty Cox almost as big as my thingy, but
    went yellow 1997 and 2001.
    W Devon went yellow or your “thingy”?

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    micktrain said:

    Probably best he stays the country spirals further into chaos and we may get better leadership later

    That’s probably how a lot of Tories are thinking: no point in wasting a decent leader in the shitstorm that’s about to hit. Let Johnson take all the blame, then ditch him just in time for an election. It’s a risky strategy, mainly because the shitstorm is not going to be brief, and Johnson will make it worse.
  • SirNorfolkPassmoreSirNorfolkPassmore Posts: 7,268
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    How does he go? He won't resign because he has no shame, and Tory MPs won't kick him out because they have no spine.

    I think it requires a cabinet rebellion at this stage.

    One can't tell for sure as the confidence vote is secret and it is far from guaranteed that Johnson swept up the payroll vote. But it seems pretty likely the majority on the backbenches want him gone, and he's being kept afloat more by spinelessness, self-interest and, I'm sure, some genuine personal support from ministers.

    It unravels pretty quickly if more than just Dowden decide to leave the bunker before Johnson starts handing round the cyanide capsules.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    boulay said:

    show previous quotes
    W Devon went yellow or your “thingy”?

    Don't ask...
  • TresTres Posts: 2,782
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    show previous quotes
    I think it requires a cabinet rebellion at this stage.

    One can't tell for sure as the confidence vote is secret and it is far from guaranteed that Johnson swept up the payroll vote. But it seems pretty likely the majority on the backbenches want him gone, and he's being kept afloat more by spinelessness, self-interest and, I'm sure, some genuine personal support from ministers.

    It unravels pretty quickly if more than just Dowden decide to leave the bunker before Johnson starts handing round the cyanide capsules.
    Cabinet have bottled it already. If any of them had had the cojones to do something about Johnson they'd have moved after the May elections.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    StuartDickson said:

    show previous quotes
    That’s probably how a lot of Tories are thinking: no point in wasting a decent leader in the shitstorm that’s about to hit. Let Johnson take all the blame, then ditch him just in time for an election. It’s a risky strategy, mainly because the shitstorm is not going to be brief, and Johnson will make it worse.
    It's delusion.
    Beyond cynical even if it were to work; utterly stupid given that it won't.

  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,236
    SirNorfolkPassmore said:

    show previous quotes
    I think it requires a cabinet rebellion at this stage.

    A cabinet rebellion plus a clear challenger around which the insurgency can coalesce. It's difficult to see who that could be. Tory boomer wank fodder Mordaunt? She has all the qualities of a dog except, and most importantly, loyalty so it's a possibility.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    James Melville going in heavy on vaccine injuries now Same as Mark Steyn on GB news

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1540091478076280833?s=20&t=q6Q79A-Ei_bSi3GDYp0i-Q

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    (FPT)
    Foxy said:

    show previous quotes
    Though that is more ammo. When it comes to maintaining vehicles and other systems, then variety comes into it.
    NATO standards go well beyond ammo.
    No doubt there's plenty room for improvement, but it's a large program.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standardization_Agreement
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    show previous quotes
    Anti-vaxxing is not necessarily a good way to convince people you are not a Russian troll.
    OK well go and tell James melville that then
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 13,844
    Alistair said:

    FTPT

    show previous quotes
    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6983328/

    Thanks. Are you up to speed on which states intend to ban abortion where the life of the mother is at risk from this or other pregnancy causes?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,135
    micktrain said:

    James Melville going in heavy on vaccine injuries now Same as Mark Steyn on GB news

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1540091478076280833?s=20&t=q6Q79A-Ei_bSi3GDYp0i-Q

    I'm very glad for my three vaccine doses as they work to keep the effect of my Covid infection relatively mild. O2 saturation still high, even though fatigue from emptying the dishwasher is a bit extreme.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    micktrain said:

    James Melville going in heavy on vaccine injuries now Same as Mark Steyn on GB news

    https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1540091478076280833?s=20&t=q6Q79A-Ei_bSi3GDYp0i-Q

    You joined the site 48 hours ago and have made 117 posts, roughly one every 25 minutes unless I’m mistaken. Are you doing this for a living somewhere perhaps?

  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Tres said:

    show previous quotes
    Cabinet have bottled it already. If any of them had had the cojones to do something about Johnson they'd have moved after the May elections.
    Yes, the constant Rishi thigh flashing is beyond pathetic now, a bunch of supine fools. I hope any future leader is not from amongst them. Forlornly no doubt.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    LostPassword said:

    show previous quotes
    I'm very glad for my three vaccine doses as they work to keep the effect of my Covid infection relatively mild. O2 saturation still high, even though fatigue from emptying the dishwasher is a bit extreme.
    That answer sounds like you are part of a religious cult mate
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013
    Foxy said:

    show previous quotes
    The reason that there wasn't much scope for LD to Lab tactical voting in Wakefield is that the LD vote had already been squeezed there. In 2010 the LD vote there was a respectable 16.3% but gone Labour in 2015 and stayed there.

    There comes a point where a tactical vote is no longer tactical, but just becomes part of the new parties core vote.
    Even when their Shareprice dips as well? Rubbish Foxy, you don’t know what you are talking about or how to answer the post.

    What is pushed by Tresher yesterday, Rentoul and Kellner in old thread header is juvenile psephology.

    Firstly each by election night is different so not straightforward in what they are telling us, it was two mid term defences it could have been two opposition defences where Conservative vote has previously hardly amounted to anything, secondly tactical voting isn’t the reason for loss everywhere such as Lib Dems lost deposit Wakefield 2019.

    There are places where Lab or Lib votes are both high, so you think some sort of collusion will make it much easier to beat the Tory, but it’s not straight forward as moving sheep from one field to another with a sheep dog, more like herding cats - think of the first hours of the coalition when Cameron said welcome to my coalition to Kennedy, and Charles replied fuck off, or the Burgon Bus with Sultana hostess driven to North Yorkshire - the maths of what you get from tactical push isn’t straightforward and could vary dramatically from place to place.

    For the most part it happens organically anyway, even with a candidate still in place. Quite simply vox pop in Tiverton today will show Lab voters switching to Lib Dem to bash Boris, Tory voters switching to Lib Dem to bash Boris, these results would have happpened anyway at this mid term with unliked Boris, even without a big tactical cat herding.

    The more interesting discussion for me is the role levelling up is playing in Tory constituencies in the south. When they are not getting funding for something, school repairs etc etc, they are blaming levelling up. But To what extent is this inherent vice of anger and “taken for granted not getting fair do’s” in Boris levelling up agenda is becoming a driver of Tory unpopularity in the blue wall and the Libdem success? Are Thresher, Kellner and Rentool talking about this yet? Maybe these slow and compromised psephologists will catch up soon. They are not as sharp as me.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,850
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    OK well go and tell James melville that then
    If there are vaccine injuries, no doubt American compensation lawyers will be all over it.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    DougSeal said:

    show previous quotes
    You joined the site 48 hours ago and have made 117 posts, roughly one every 25 minutes unless I’m mistaken. Are you doing this for a living somewhere perhaps?

    Well if you want to pay me pal I'm open to offers
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    MoonRabbit said:

    show previous quotes
    Even when their Shareprice dips as well? Rubbish Foxy, you don’t know what you are talking about or how to answer the post.

    What is pushed by Tresher yesterday, Rentoul and Kellner in old thread header is juvenile psephology.

    Firstly each by election night is different so not straightforward in what they are telling us, it was two mid term defences it could have been two opposition defences where Conservative vote has previously hardly amounted to anything, secondly tactical voting isn’t the reason for loss everywhere such as Lib Dems lost deposit Wakefield 2019.

    There are places where Lab or Lib votes are both high, so you think some sort of collusion will make it much easier to beat the Tory, but it’s not straight forward as moving sheep from one field to another with a sheep dog, more like herding cats - think of the first hours of the coalition when Cameron said welcome to my coalition to Kennedy, and Charles replied fuck off, or the Burgon Bus with Sultana hostess driven to North Yorkshire - the maths of what you get from tactical push isn’t straightforward and could vary dramatically from place to place.

    For the most part it happens organically anyway, even with a candidate still in place. Quite simply vox pop in Tiverton today will show Lab voters switching to Lib Dem to bash Boris, Tory voters switching to Lib Dem to bash Boris, these results would have happpened anyway at this mid term with unliked Boris, even without a big tactical cat herding.

    The more interesting discussion for me is the role levelling up is playing in Tory constituencies in the south. When they are not getting funding for something, school repairs etc etc, they are blaming levelling up. But To what extent is this inherent vice of anger and “taken for granted not getting fair
    do’s” in Boris levelling up agenda is becoming a driver of Tory unpopularity in the blue wall and the Libdem success? Are Thresher, Kellner and Rentool talking about this yet? Maybe these slow and compromised psephologists will catch up soon. They are not as sharp as me.
    Very few people are TBF.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    The point is James Melville is saying coverage of vaccine injuries is being suppressed, you may disagree with him but it's important to have the debate, or do we live in North korea
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Don't ask...
    You sound a bit jaundiced.

  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    show previous quotes
    If there are vaccine injuries, no doubt American compensation lawyers will be all over it.
    Deaths in the UK the last few weeks about 20% over seasonal norm ,, interesting
  • TimSTimS Posts: 14,719
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    Blue Wall is an unusually unhelpful term. Wikipedia says N Shropshire is one, so why Tiverton escapes is beyond me. Anyway it is almost far enough West to be natural liberal
    country for that reason. My own constituency W Devon has a majority for fatty Cox almost as big as my thingy, but went yellow 1997 and 2001.
    I agree the wall terminology has become flabby. The red wall was visibly a wall of Labour seats, and the wall metaphor was meaningful as it was a traditional stronghold being laid siege to by demographic change and the shape shifting of the main parties.

    The blue wall proper also fits the bill: it’s the absolute stockbroker belt heartland, the ramparts of old Toryism in the prosperous commuter belt of SE England. It is an area that fitted old Conservative politics but has found itself at odds with the new direction of the party particularly around Europe.

    If anything the South West was the first wall. It was the yellow wall, which crumbled in 2015 partly through tactical unwind but also because of a drift apart of the traditional Liberal voter base in the region and the new more metropolitan pro-EU identity of the Lib Dems. You could argue T&H is them winning back part of the yellow wall.

    There are then large swathes of the country that are not walls at all. There are inner sanctums, like parts of Kent and Essex for the Tories or inner London for Labour. And there are the “marches” or blood lands, the perpetual marginals.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    This is a tweet giving latest ons death figures

    https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1540414549182013440?s=20&t=qSV4YvWWH3DOJpQf5Uhe2w
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,850
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    Deaths in the UK the last few weeks about 20% over seasonal norm ,, interesting
    Really? And are there any novel diseases that might account for excess deaths? Are there any old ones that might have had treatments or diagnoses delayed during the pandemic?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    Northern_Al said:

    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.

    ‘Pal’ is short of the pale, shurely?

  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    micktrain said:

    This is a tweet giving latest ons death figures

    https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1540414549182013440?s=20&t=qSV4YvWWH3DOJpQf5Uhe2w

    In February 2022 (to pick a recent random month) recorded deaths were just over 7% below the 5-year average? What’s your point, other than shit stirring, sorry, “asking questions”?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    micktrain said:

    The point is James Melville is saying coverage of vaccine injuries is being suppressed, you may disagree with him but it's important to have the debate, or do we live in North korea

    We got on fine not having the debate till you showed up, and we will get on fine after rcs decides he has had enough of you

    Melville's thesis is: previously healthy people, are getting ill. That in my experience is how getting ill has always worked.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Northern_Al said:

    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.

    Ad hominid attacks mate,, address the arguments if you can, can you?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060
    Northern_Al said:

    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.

    I’m more confused by someone using both - in my life there are people who call others “mate” and others who use “pal” but don’t recall anyone using both - I always thought it was a regional thing with “pal” being more Northern and “mate” more south….

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,850
    micktrain said:

    This is a tweet giving latest ons death figures

    https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1540414549182013440?s=20&t=qSV4YvWWH3DOJpQf5Uhe2w

    Is it alleged that the government publishes statistics as part of a cover-up?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    Northern_Al said:

    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.

    One or the other, occasionally, is fine. Constant use becomes a little bit threatening.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    Ad hominid attacks mate,, address the arguments if you can, can you?
    Ad hominid is utterly delightful. Afarensis?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Northern_Al said:

    It's absolutely none of my business what people post on here, and generally I'm at the freedom of speech end of the spectrum. But there is a line to be drawn.

    So, how about an automatic ban on anybody who refers to other posters as 'mate' or 'pal'? Beyond the pale, in my view.

    They can f... er, clear off to Tinder/Grindr as far as I am concerned. PB is definitely not the place to pair off (so far as I know; who knows what some of us do in private).
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    Ad hominid attacks mate,, address the arguments if you can, can you?
    Ad hominid? Are you asking him to ape you?

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    IshmaelZ said:

    show previous quotes
    We got on fine not having the debate till you showed up, and we will get on fine after rcs decides he has had enough of you

    Melville's thesis is: previously healthy people, are getting ill. That in my experience is how getting ill has always worked.
    I doubt it will be long before 'rcs' acts but in the meantime the cricket is about to start and a day away from politics beckons
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    There are rumours going round especially in the USA that the shortage of airline staff and flight cancellations may be due to vaccine injuries,, could be rubbish but who knows
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    boulay said:

    show previous quotes
    I’m more confused by someone using both - in my life there are people who call others “mate” and others who use “pal” but don’t recall anyone using both - I always thought it was a regional thing with “pal” being more Northern and “mate” more south….

    He's obviously not familiar with the affectionate use of c**t in this context. Well known in e.g. Transpotting, Rab C. Nesbit, etc. I thoroughly recommend it for anyone wishing to fit in and make friends.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    edited June 2022
    micktrain said:

    There are rumours going round especially in the USA that the shortage of airline staff and flight cancellations may be due to vaccine injuries,, could be rubbish but who knows

    Wha-hey! Welcome back, we’ve missed this particular theory. Why only the other day we were lamenting its prolonged absence.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    TimS said:

    show previous quotes
    I agree the wall terminology has become flabby. The red wall was visibly a wall of Labour seats, and the wall metaphor was meaningful as it was a traditional stronghold being laid siege to by demographic change and the shape shifting of the main parties.

    The blue wall proper also fits the bill: it’s the absolute stockbroker belt heartland, the ramparts of old Toryism in the prosperous commuter belt of SE England. It is an area that fitted old Conservative politics but has found itself at odds with the new direction of the party particularly around Europe.

    If anything the South West was the first wall. It was the yellow wall, which crumbled in 2015 partly through tactical unwind but also because of a drift apart of the traditional Liberal voter base in the region and the new more metropolitan pro-EU identity of the Lib Dems. You could argue T&H is them winning back part of the yellow wall.


    There are then large swathes of the country that are not walls at all. There are inner sanctums, like parts of Kent and Essex for the Tories or inner London for Labour. And there are the “marches” or blood lands, the perpetual marginals.
    In April 2022 I cast my first GE vote on the way to school as a recently turned 18 year old, tactically, for the LDs as there was no way Labour would ever win Canterbury.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

    show previous quotes
    Ad hominid? Are you asking him to ape you?

    Nah, it's just someone monkeying around.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    edited June 2022
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    Ad hominid attacks mate,, address the arguments if you can, can you?
    I'm not convinced you're presented any yet (other than that you think the sexual revolution is a bad thing and Pride is even worse). Non-mate.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    DougSeal said:

    show previous quotes
    In April 2022 I cast my first GE vote on the way to school as a recently turned 18 year old, tactically, for the LDs as there was no way Labour would ever win Canterbury.

    You're obviously very precocious. Imagine being a conveyancing lawyer before you have your A-levels.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    edited June 2022
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    Ad hominid attacks mate…
    Thanks to your monkeying around, no doubt.

    As for addressing the argument, if you’d like to present one, we’ll consider it.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    boulay said:

    show previous quotes
    I’m more confused by someone using both - in my life there are people who call others “mate” and others who use “pal” but don’t recall anyone using both - I always thought it was a regional thing with “pal” being more Northern and “mate” more south….

    Not sure about the regional variation but agree that I don’t know of anyone that uses both.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    micktrain said:

    This is a tweet giving latest ons death figures

    https://twitter.com/NeilClark66/status/1540414549182013440?s=20&t=qSV4YvWWH3DOJpQf5Uhe2w

    CMI calculates 122,400 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. The total has increased by 2,000 in 2022.

    Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 0.1% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/3 https://t.co/0oikxlDC9C



    I think that there is a limit to how far back one can safely compare when looking at excess deaths, as population ageing effects start to intrude.

    The problem of Omicron is more one of morbidity than mortality, lengthening hospital stay, etc.


  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    show previous quotes
    I doubt it will be long before 'rcs' acts but in the meantime the cricket is about to start and a day away from politics beckons
    I suppose if I had taken a vaccine that questions are now being asked about by substantial figures I would go into denial too
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    I suppose if I had taken a vaccine that questions are now being asked about by substantial figures …
    Who’s your fat friend ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    Carnyx said:

    show previous quotes
    Nah, it's just someone monkeying around.
    He is running a gorilla campaign.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2022
    While on the topic of blaming the woman (with some spreading to Mr J) - Graun feed reports:

    'The i reports one saying: “Parish shouldn’t have resigned.

    “He should have just gone away with his wife for a few weeks and then come back to the job. I don’t know why the girls had to speak out like that.”

    Another suggested the witnesses would “feel like a turd in the swimming pool”.

    On Johnson, a Tory MP said: “It’s like a disease. The prime minister is infecting the cabinet, and if the Tory party doesn’t act in the next six months we will all be infected by him.”'

    Original is here but ££.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-is-like-a-disease-inside-a-tory-party-shell-shocked-by-horrific-double-defeat-1706526
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,749
    boulay said:

    show previous quotes
    I’m more confused by someone using both - in my life there are people who call others “mate” and others who use “pal” but don’t recall anyone using both - I always thought it was a regional thing with “pal” being more Northern and “mate” more south….

    FFS. Look what I've started. We'll now have an entire thread on the difference between 'mate' and 'pal'.

    I was merely being whimsical. I've learnt my lesson.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    Carnyx said:

    show previous quotes
    You're obviously very precocious. Imagine being a conveyancing lawyer before you have your A-levels.
    Uurggh - not sure which is worse, me typing 2022 for 1992 or you thinking I’m a conveyancer.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,002
    Carnyx said:

    While on the topic of blaming the woman - Graun feed reports:

    'The i reports one saying: “Parish shouldn’t have resigned.

    “He should have just gone away with his wife for a few weeks and then come back to the job. I don’t know why the girls had to speak out like that.”

    Another suggested the witnesses would “feel like a turd in the swimming pool”.

    On Johnson, a Tory MP said: “It’s like a disease. The prime minister is infecting the cabinet, and if the Tory party doesn’t act in the next six months we will all be infected by him.”'

    Too late, pal/mate.
    Get rid of him and we can discuss treatment for the infection.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    DougSeal said:



    show previous quotes
    Uurggh - not sure which is worse, me typing 2022 for 1992 or you thinking I’m a conveyancer.
    Sorry! I had meant to put a question mark as I wasn't sure of my memory, so grovelling apologies.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Nigelb said:

    show previous quotes
    Who’s your fat friend ?
    No arguments mate do try harder
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    Nigelb said:

    show previous quotes
    Too late, pal/mate.
    Get rid of him and we can discuss treatment for the infection.
    They are certainly showing the brain power of newts.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    I suppose if I had taken a vaccine that questions are now being asked about by substantial figures I would go into denial too
    The clock is ticking and the cricket has started
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Foxy said:

    show previous quotes
    CMI calculates 122,400 excess deaths in the UK since the start of the pandemic. The total has increased by 2,000 in 2022.

    Cumulative mortality rates YTD are 0.1% of a full year’s mortality worse than 2019. 2/3 https://t.co/0oikxlDC9C



    I think that there is a limit to how far back one can safely compare when looking at excess deaths, as population ageing effects start to intrude.

    The problem of Omicron is more one of morbidity than mortality, lengthening hospital stay, etc.


    Deaths running nearly 20% above normal now as shown by latest ons figures not that gps are interested, they are still in hiding
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Carnyx said:

    While on the topic of blaming the woman (with some spreading to Mr J) - Graun feed reports:

    'The i reports one saying: “Parish shouldn’t have resigned.

    “He should have just gone away with his wife for a few weeks and then come back to the job. I don’t know why the girls had to speak out like that.”

    Another suggested the witnesses would “feel like a turd in the swimming pool”.

    On Johnson, a Tory MP said: “It’s like a disease. The prime minister is infecting the cabinet, and if the Tory party doesn’t act in the next six months we will all be infected by him.”'

    Original is here but ££.

    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-is-like-a-disease-inside-a-tory-party-shell-shocked-by-horrific-double-defeat-1706526

    Much pearl clutching there.
    "Voters are lying on the doorstep."
    I wonder where they got the idea that is an acceptable way to behave?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

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    He is running a gorilla campaign.
    Certainly not in a languorous manner ...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

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    The clock is ticking and the cricket has started
    Yesterday I had a double free in the afternoon due to exam classes leaving. I had hoped to watch the cricket while I was working but I was very busy and forgot to put it on.

    We all make mistakes…
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    dixiedean said:

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    Much pearl clutching there.
    "Voters are lying on the doorstep."
    I wonder where they got the idea that is an acceptable way to behave?
    Oh thanks, couldn't get at it. Any further pearls to compare with that unfortunate comment about going away?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,013
    micktrain said:

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    No arguments mate do try harder
    What’s your opinion on Tory’s taking so much money from Russian oligarchs down the years, Mick?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    Carnyx said:

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    They are certainly showing the brain power of newts.
    I fink not all of them even get that far.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 1,640
    DougSeal said:

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    Not sure about the regional variation but agree that I don’t know of anyone that uses both.
    I do! Common in these parts. ‘Pal’ feels Scottish to me, loads of them here, ex-miners and their families. I can hear my mate’s Scottish mam saying it in her broad accent.

  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

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    The clock is ticking and the cricket has started
    Nice distraction to take your mind off home truths mate
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,369
    boulay said:

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    I’m more confused by someone using both - in my life there are people who call others “mate” and others who use “pal” but don’t recall anyone using both - I always thought it was a regional thing with “pal” being more Northern and “mate” more south….

    I've used both depending on where I am. Mate in London, Pal in Scotland. Marra on Tyneside. I'm sure I have heard blokes calling each other Love elsewhere in the North, maybe Sheffield. Don't think I've used any on here though.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    micktrain said:

    There are rumours going round especially in the USA that the shortage of airline staff and flight cancellations may be due to vaccine injuries,, could be rubbish but who knows

    Look closer to home, at the number of BA pilots with vaccine injuries.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    DougSeal said:

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    You joined the site 48 hours ago and have made 117 posts, roughly one every 25 minutes unless I’m mistaken. Are you doing this for a living somewhere perhaps?

    Eh, I've probably done more.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 64,938
    micktrain said:

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    Nice distraction to take your mind off home truths mate
    You talk utter tripe and I am not your mate
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    kle4 said:

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    Eh, I've probably done more.
    Yes you have mate and I must say your output is impressive
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    ydoethur said:

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    I fink not all of them even get that far.
    Right ho.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

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    I've used both depending on where I am. Mate in London, Pal in Scotland. Marra on Tyneside. I'm sure I have heard blokes calling each other Love elsewhere in the North, maybe Sheffield. Don't think I've used any on here though.
    Rochdale Pioneers (I think) called me “mate” once but I took that in the friendly context of both of being left liberal types and me being critical of something he said. Amongst my East Kent/Estuary school friends I use “mate”, also with people I played rugby with in London, but not Oxford friends or professional acquaintances. And not online generally as it comes off the wrong way.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Carnyx said:

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    Oh thanks, couldn't get at it. Any further pearls to compare with that unfortunate comment about going away?
    Just off the record griping.
    It being all the fault of the people who pointed out he was watching porn at work isn't a great look. Not would be top of my list in analysis, mind.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,826
    micktrain said:

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    Deaths running nearly 20% above normal now as shown by latest ons figures not that gps are interested, they are still in hiding
    Largely a recording effect from the prolonged Bank Holiday.

    This is an interesting piece of work looking at the excess million deaths from covid in the USA, in particular the higher mortality in the young and middle aged.

    https://covidactuaries.org/2022/06/20/excess-mortality-in-the-usa/
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,656
    micktrain said:

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    Yes you have mate and I must say your output is impressive
    “…mate…”
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    Foxy said:

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    He is running a gorilla campaign.
    The NHS is failing Foxy while you milk the taxpayer Read this tweet

    https://twitter.com/YardleyShooting/status/1540629355025600513?s=20&t=aeLmWIghmmQ7BfrRyjos8A
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

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    Is it alleged that the government publishes statistics as part of a cover-up?
    During early days of Covid some who should know better seemed to think so. Or seemed to not know the ONS existed
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,337
    DougSeal said:

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    “…mate…”
    I hear you dude.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    dixiedean said:

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    Just off the record griping.
    It being all the fault of the people who pointed out he was watching porn at work isn't a great look. Not would be top of my list in analysis, mind.
    I can't think that that excuse will get a lot of traction with the public.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 6,060
    micktrain said:

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    The NHS is failing Foxy while you milk the taxpayer Read this tweet

    https://twitter.com/YardleyShooting/status/1540629355025600513?s=20&t=aeLmWIghmmQ7BfrRyjos8A
    It’s udderly ridiculous to suggest that Foxy “milks” the taxpayer, girlfriend.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    micktrain said:

    show previous quotes
    The NHS is failing Foxy while you milk the taxpayer Read this tweet

    https://twitter.com/YardleyShooting/status/1540629355025600513?s=20&t=aeLmWIghmmQ7BfrRyjos8A
    Hey you, the lactation porn is over on Tinder.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    kle4 said:

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    During early days of Covid some who should know better seemed to think so. Or seemed to not know the ONS existed
    Lots of excess deaths in early days of covid due to hospital patients transferred into care homes
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,886
    Carnyx said:

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    I can't think that that excuse will get a lot of traction with the public.
    It certainly hasn't dominated the headlines so far.
  • micktrainmicktrain Posts: 137
    boulay said:

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    It’s udderly ridiculous to suggest that Foxy “milks” the taxpayer, girlfriend.

    Public servant in failing institution qualifies as milking the taxpayer sorry
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,121
    boulay said:

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    It’s udderly ridiculous to suggest that Foxy “milks” the taxpayer, girlfriend.

    It would be intriguing to see how well the NHS would do without all those useless doctors and nurses milking it.

    My suspicion is it wouldn’t be as effective as at present, but that’s what lots of civil servants at the DfE try to tell me about education which is not the case.

    So maybe we should make the experiment?

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    Foxy said:

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    Largely a recording effect from the prolonged Bank Holiday.

    This is an interesting piece of work looking at the excess million deaths from covid in the USA, in particular the higher mortality in the young and middle aged.

    https://covidactuaries.org/2022/06/20/excess-mortality-in-the-usa/
    FFS - have we got another ignoring-reporting-effects clown?

    {picks up baseball bat and a handful of rust nails…}

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,550
    edited June 2022
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    How does he go? He won't resign because he has no shame, and Tory MPs won't kick him out because they have no spine.

    There and not there at the same time. Just witters on about Ukraine and "delivering on priorities" and this and that - it's pitiful to see. I'm losing interest in him tbh. I don't even bother turning off the TV when he comes on now. Seems no need.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,866
    DougSeal said:

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    “…mate…”

    Virgil Malloy: Watch it, bud.
    Turk Malloy: Who you calling bud, pal?
    Virgil Malloy: Who you calling pal, friend?
    Turk Malloy: Who you calling friend, jackass?!
    Virgil Malloy: Don't call me a jackass.
    Turk Malloy: I just did call you a jackass.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,295
    Sandpit said:

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    Look closer to home, at the number of BA pilots with vaccine injuries.
    Does anyone know what the theory is for why airline staff are especially prone to these vaccine injuries?
This discussion has been closed.