Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
A clear shift from Johnson then away from net zero towards cutting energy bills
It won't cut energy bills (I don't think) as it's used for steel production, but it's positive for the economy nonetheless. It makes no sense to import something from Russia if it's under the ground just as cheap.
Who’s holding hands with Arthur Scargill at this end of the week then 🤣
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
No - @Applicant is misreading what the 2nd means by that.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
Apparently Tiverton Conservative surface activity is on the low scale side this morning, in many places seemingly nothing at all. Perhaps they are working under the radar, the telephones etc but it is surprising. Whereas the Lib Dems, they seem to be everywhere. Read into that what we will. Can the Cons hang on or will it be a Lib Dem landslide? Boris must be sweating.
The image of Boris sweating is distinctly revolting. A gargantuan mass of blubber dripping liquid stench. It rather stands as a political metaphor for this ghastly administration.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
Your insights have been both interesting and illuminating for me
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
That's just semantics though. A strict biblical reading leaves no room for any gun control at all. So we already have (unless there's a good reason) in brackets. It follows that the 'good reason' could be along the lines of 'to finally get on top of the endemic of gun crime'. This to be set aside in specific cases where (eg) a serving police officer needs a gun because of the situations they routinely find themselves in. That works just fine. It's how I'd argue it if I were on the SC and if Brett Whatshisface objected I'd simply send him to the corner with a silly little hat on.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Apparently Tiverton Conservative surface activity is on the low scale side this morning, in many places seemingly nothing at all. Perhaps they are working under the radar, the telephones etc but it is surprising. Whereas the Lib Dems, they seem to be everywhere. Read into that what we will. Can the Cons hang on or will it be a Lib Dem landslide? Boris must be sweating.
The image of Boris sweating is distinctly revolting. A gargantuan mass of blubber dripping liquid stench. It rather stands as a political metaphor for this ghastly administration.
Neither the falling wardrobe with key metaphor, nor the falling bag of custard metaphor, included any reference to his being particularly sweaty?
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
The Dems didn't win the popular vote at a Presidential level in 1988 or 2004 both periods of which saw judges appointed who are still on the Court by both Bushes. The Senate also has to approve SC judges and over that time the GOP controlled the Senate from 1994 to 2000 and 2002 to 2006 and 2014 to 2020
Right. And the Senate is rigged for the GOP, isn't it.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
That's just semantics though. A strict biblical reading leaves no room for any gun control at all. So we already have (unless there's a good reason) in brackets. It follows that the 'good reason' could be along the lines of 'to finally get on top of the endemic of gun crime'.
I'm afraid your logic breaks down, as the "good reason" is applied only at the individual level not at the population level.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Yay! Just got a call from the company I sent my spreadsheet to yesterday - I've got a video interview on Monday.
Practise answering likely questions. Practise out loud. Check your video set up is OK. No embarrassing sex or sexist toys in the background. Camera pointing straight at you and not filming your double chins from below. If they've sent you the link already, make sure you can connect to Zoom or Webex or Teams or whatever they use. Good luck. I'm off to teach my granny to suck eggs.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Yay! Just got a call from the company I sent my spreadsheet to yesterday - I've got a video interview on Monday.
Practise answering likely questions. Practise out loud. Check your video set up is OK. No embarrassing sex or sexist toys in the background. Camera pointing straight at you and not filming your double chins from below. If they've sent you the link already, make sure you can connect to Zoom or Webex or Teams or whatever they use. Good luck. I'm off to teach my granny to suck eggs.
Having the camera high is certainly good advice, as is facing the light source - ideally natural light from a window - so that it’s behind the camera. So many people have cameras at desk height looking up at them, which is extremely unflattering.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
A clear shift from Johnson then away from net zero towards cutting energy bills
No. The coal is specialist stuff for smelting metal ore, especially iron.
A significant proportion of which currently comes from ... Russia
I totally disagree with this decision but if they are doing it I hope at least it's meaningful, ie that it's going to produce lots of coal and make a material reduction to energy bills and/or reliance on Russia. Because so much of what this government says and does is for show only. Their poor (or lack of) execution defines them just as much as their (imo) ignoble intentions.
Yay! Just got a call from the company I sent my spreadsheet to yesterday - I've got a video interview on Monday.
Practise answering likely questions. Practise out loud. Check your video set up is OK. No embarrassing sex or sexist toys in the background. Camera pointing straight at you and not filming your double chins from below. If they've sent you the link already, make sure you can connect to Zoom or Webex or Teams or whatever they use. Good luck. I'm off to teach my granny to suck eggs.
We now all know what an awesome WFH setup looks like. If you don’t have one, make it look as if you do.
Camera at eye level or slightly above, use a light to ensure no face shadows, a plain background (or something that might be a conversation piece), don’t use a software ‘background’ unless you have to. Get a decent webcam if you can. Have a backup device on 4G connection, also at eye level, even if it’s your phone on a stack of books.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
Putting CGT on primary residences would put a stop to people moving home.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Hang on: the UK is unique in the quantity of inflation linked bonds they have issued. Their "miss" on interest is a consequence of them not having forecast Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Twitter Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·41s 🚨Lord Frost says @BorisJohnson should stop making "factually inaccurate statements" 🚨Warns he has 3 months to get a "grip".
👀Ominous message: Brexit is working, but the PM's premiership isn't.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Hang on: the UK is unique in the quantity of inflation linked bonds they have issued. Their "miss" on interest is a consequence of them not having forecast Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Didn't the last forecast come out after the invasion had begun though?
Also, on your first point - another fucking sop to old people and bout of short termism to raise more today at the expense of tomorrow's taxpayers.
Twitter Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·41s 🚨Lord Frost says @BorisJohnson should stop making "factually inaccurate statements" 🚨Warns he has 3 months to get a "grip".
👀Ominous message: Brexit is working, but the PM's premiership isn't.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
Putting CGT on primary residences would put a stop to people moving home.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
Relative to North Shropshire, the average age is because there are lots of retired incomers moving to Devon, not because there is a demographic decline driving out younger workers (as in, say, Wales).
I think we don't know much about how retired incomers vote, except I'd be tempted to put them down as harder to convert away from Tory-Labour voting patterns built up during their working life than a comparable retired person who lived in rural areas for decades.
That being said, Lib Dems have been able to do well in seats with this kind of demographic in the past, both in the south west and far outside it from the Lake District to North Norfolk.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Because it would be a huge drain on mobility of labour, and concentrate higher-paid workers even more towards London than they are already. People still need to live somewhere. Stamp duty is already a problem for mobility of labour in the South of England.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Maybe you need Labour to come out with the policy if the left believe in it
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
That's a good piece. I remember something from soon after Johnson won his majority - an event where he said this was The People's Government and they had signage and bunting all over the place saying that. The People's Government. Just a horrible vibe. It made me shudder. But it didn't catch on, thank heaven for small mercies.
Presumably you shuddered in the same way when Tony Blair called the Labour Party "the political wing of the British people"
I cringed, if that counts ?
TBF, I think the entire nation winced, and 20 million scrotums tightened reflexively
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Working from home has diluted that since 2010.
You still think this is 50/50 Mark?
I have no idea! We have a by-election caused by the resignation of an MP for watching porn in the Chamber, yet the campaign is nothing to do with his ethics but those of the PM. Since I visited the constituency we have had 3/4 of the backbench Tory MPs question their confidence in the PM. If that is matched by Tory voters, then the Can't Be Arsed Party will do very well today. We have also had the £2 litre in your car - and a return of 1970s Labour-Union love-ins for double-digit payclaims.
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Young families getting stung because they need to move to a bigger house when having children is not a good look nor a good policy
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
Putting CGT on primary residences would put a stop to people moving home.
What rot. It might take the heat out of the housing market by people will still more home for a whole host of reasons.
When did CGT stop people buying stock and shares? Or 2nd homes?
Twitter Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·41s 🚨Lord Frost says @BorisJohnson should stop making "factually inaccurate statements" 🚨Warns he has 3 months to get a "grip".
👀Ominous message: Brexit is working, but the PM's premiership isn't.
Boris has been warned so often about misleading claims at PMQs that I wonder if they are designed as elephant traps for Starmer, who generally ignores them, or whether Starmer is so badly briefed he does not notice.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Young families getting stung because they need to move to a bigger house when having children is not a good look nor a good policy
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
The Dems didn't win the popular vote at a Presidential level in 1988 or 2004 both periods of which saw judges appointed who are still on the Court by both Bushes. The Senate also has to approve SC judges and over that time the GOP controlled the Senate from 1994 to 2000 and 2002 to 2006 and 2014 to 2020
Right. And the Senate is rigged for the GOP, isn't it.
No it isn't as each State gets 2 Senators, it is unriggable
Jeepers. I was just the nearly the victim of an extremely clever, elaborate banking fraud
Call from "Santander Fraud Dept". They spoofed the right Santander number and even had the correct social media accounts of Santander employees when asked
My mum got one of the texts a week or so back, and phoned me to check if it was legit. Just told her to delete it, which she did.
The elaborate stuff comes when you've already half fallen for it. I'm very glad you dodged the scam.
I just stopped a tenant falling for that one.
In the supplied her with a printout as to how it worked.
Interestingly, her 30 year old son was far clearer about it, and about 'forget and move on'.
The obvious way to check it is a scam is to call the bank yourself. Which I did. But then you end up in a call queue which seems endless - even the fraud action line dumps you in a prolonged queue. And this is also hideously expensive if you are calling from Tbilisi (which I was)
So then you end up making a judgement in the moment, "what if there really ARE fraudsters who are controlling my account and I need to act immediately?" versus "would my bank really ever ask me to transfer money?"
It seems obvious that you should pay more attention to the second question (and I did, in the end), but they very cleverly make you focus on the first with a series of compelling details. Presumably honed over months, as they have learned what works and what doesn't
Banks really need to sort out these fucking call queues, because without access to a real human being on the other end of the line you cannot know for sure
My view is that my bank will never phone me with any request whatsoever about transfers or passcodes or whatever.
Anyone who contacts me about such things is a fraudster until proved otherwise is my modus.
When I was still in England, someone from may bank phoned me up and it seemed to be about a legitimate subject. Then he started asking me low level personal details IDK address, postcode, DOB. At this point I said "Hold on you have just rung me..." So I asked for his name and department and I rang that bank's main phone number and asked to be put through to him. It turned out he was calling legitimatly, but I still think I did the right think and he should not have been asking me those questions.
Of course the difference is, that if it is legitimate the caller has no problems with you doing this. Where as the other stories today the conmen try to convince you that calling back will just waste your time and lead to you losing your money.
It's cleverer than that. The first actor said "oh yes please do call us back to check, I just warn you there are queues"
He invited me to check him out. But there were enormous queues (of course he knew this)
So I had no means of checking him except by asking him questions, which I did, and eventually their answers got more and more iffy, until I called it off
I have the minor, consoling pleasure that, by the end, when he realised I wasn't falling for it, the "manager" sounded decidedly hacked off that he'd fucked up
They must have been really hacked off, for sure, having struck so lucky in chancing upon someone so patently gullible in the first place!
Quite possibly
Looking back, I believe the conviction of the first guy quickened when I said “I am in Georgia, in the Caucasus”
He cannot have known that, surely? Or maybe they check social media for flint knappers?
Anyway he said very fast “Ah gosh, sir, then this must be doubly alarming, let’s get it sorted as quickly as possible so you can enjoy your travels, and you don’t want a long phone call either, do you?” VERY calm and reassuring and amiable, and deft. He got me onside quick. Me and him were a team against the awful scammers
Devious fuckers! Shame his “colleague” said “I went to, er, college at Royal Holloway, before University”
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Working from home has diluted that since 2010.
You still think this is 50/50 Mark?
I have no idea! We have a by-election caused by the resignation of an MP for watching porn in the Chamber, yet the campaign is nothing to do with his ethics but those of the PM. Since I visited the constituency we have had 3/4 of the backbench Tory MPs question their confidence in the PM. If that is matched by Tory voters, then the Can't Be Arsed Party will do very well today. We have also had the £2 litre in your car - and a return of 1970s Labour-Union love-ins for double-digit payclaims.
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
Very appropriate for the Beer-Branscombe sector ...
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
I am very well aware of what happened in 2010. The Tories also won Shropshire N in 2010 etc etc etc.
I'm not quite sure where those average ages come from. They sound wrong. I am also very well aware of T and H demographics, but there are plenty of people who actually work for a living!
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Young families getting stung because they need to move to a bigger house when having children is not a good look nor a good policy
Stamp duty says Hi!
Quite. So further penalising would be excessive. Why not tax the growth in value year to year too?
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Well if more Democrats moved from California and New York city to swing states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania it would be less of an issue.
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
Jeepers. I was just the nearly the victim of an extremely clever, elaborate banking fraud
Call from "Santander Fraud Dept". They spoofed the right Santander number and even had the correct social media accounts of Santander employees when asked
My mum got one of the texts a week or so back, and phoned me to check if it was legit. Just told her to delete it, which she did.
The elaborate stuff comes when you've already half fallen for it. I'm very glad you dodged the scam.
I just stopped a tenant falling for that one.
In the supplied her with a printout as to how it worked.
Interestingly, her 30 year old son was far clearer about it, and about 'forget and move on'.
The obvious way to check it is a scam is to call the bank yourself. Which I did. But then you end up in a call queue which seems endless - even the fraud action line dumps you in a prolonged queue. And this is also hideously expensive if you are calling from Tbilisi (which I was)
So then you end up making a judgement in the moment, "what if there really ARE fraudsters who are controlling my account and I need to act immediately?" versus "would my bank really ever ask me to transfer money?"
It seems obvious that you should pay more attention to the second question (and I did, in the end), but they very cleverly make you focus on the first with a series of compelling details. Presumably honed over months, as they have learned what works and what doesn't
Banks really need to sort out these fucking call queues, because without access to a real human being on the other end of the line you cannot know for sure
My view is that my bank will never phone me with any request whatsoever about transfers or passcodes or whatever.
Anyone who contacts me about such things is a fraudster until proved otherwise is my modus.
When I was still in England, someone from may bank phoned me up and it seemed to be about a legitimate subject. Then he started asking me low level personal details IDK address, postcode, DOB. At this point I said "Hold on you have just rung me..." So I asked for his name and department and I rang that bank's main phone number and asked to be put through to him. It turned out he was calling legitimatly, but I still think I did the right think and he should not have been asking me those questions.
Of course the difference is, that if it is legitimate the caller has no problems with you doing this. Where as the other stories today the conmen try to convince you that calling back will just waste your time and lead to you losing your money.
The problem banks (and anyone else) have is that they have a duty of care to ensure they are speaking to the correct person. They have no idea who else might answer so they have to go through security checks on outbound or inbound calls regardless. So yes, any legitimate caller will be fine with you calling them back but they will legitimately need to take security details if calling you. Else its 'that was my partner, whom i'm acrimoniously divorcing, that you discussed my account with'
While that is true, there should be a way for them to establish their identity with you, as that would be the surest way to deal with the issues with scam calls. It's nuts that I'm expected to give out security information to a complete random whose identity I can't verify.
So you call them back on a number you have for them. Until they know they are talking to you giving any details is potentially negligent.
But “calling them back” is bloody hard if you’re in T’bilisi, and it is doubly bloody hard in these post-Covid days when every call meets a 4 hour queue “at this exceptionally busy time”
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
That's just semantics though. A strict biblical reading leaves no room for any gun control at all. So we already have (unless there's a good reason) in brackets. It follows that the 'good reason' could be along the lines of 'to finally get on top of the endemic of gun crime'.
I'm afraid your logic breaks down, as the "good reason" is applied only at the individual level not at the population level.
Well what is a population but an aggregation of its individuals? It's a matter of nuance and interpretation. "The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed (unless people are keeping and bearing arms for no good reason)." No problem with that. Then in practice it's about what 'good reason' entails and this could be viewed differently in different parts of the country. That's sort of how it works now. This SC seem to be working their way towards abolishing the implied 'good reason' caveat. Effectively saying "I want to" is always reason enough. Crazy and also (imo) bad jurisprudence.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
Except it would obviously not be introduced as a retrospective tax... The value of the house at the point of introduction of the tax would be the base value. Stamp duty abolished. Personal CGT allowances available. There's no reason why most people would end up much worse off downsizing. And a smaller house obviously gives less potential future CGT.
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
I'm imagining HYUFD doing his T&H phone canvassing:
"Good morning. I'm phoning on behalf of the Conservative candidate in this week's by-election. Would you mind telling me how you voted in the 2019 General Election?" "Well, I normally vote Tory, but on that occasion I voted for the Liberal Democrats". "So, you're not a proper Tory. Get stuffed. Goodbye."
That's a good piece. I remember something from soon after Johnson won his majority - an event where he said this was The People's Government and they had signage and bunting all over the place saying that. The People's Government. Just a horrible vibe. It made me shudder. But it didn't catch on, thank heaven for small mercies.
Presumably you shuddered in the same way when Tony Blair called the Labour Party "the political wing of the British people"
I cringed, if that counts ?
TBF, I think the entire nation winced, and 20 million scrotums tightened reflexively
We forget Blair had these total CRINGE moments
TBF I suspect 99.999% of the 'entire nation' missed that moment. I know I did.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Well if more Democrats moved from California and New York city to swing states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania it would be less of an issue.
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
They have done so in Texas and it seems to be working to divert a large amount of campaign resources.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Working from home has diluted that since 2010.
You still think this is 50/50 Mark?
I have no idea! We have a by-election caused by the resignation of an MP for watching porn in the Chamber, yet the campaign is nothing to do with his ethics but those of the PM. Since I visited the constituency we have had 3/4 of the backbench Tory MPs question their confidence in the PM. If that is matched by Tory voters, then the Can't Be Arsed Party will do very well today. We have also had the £2 litre in your car - and a return of 1970s Labour-Union love-ins for double-digit payclaims.
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
Not sure that would look great in the chalk downlands. 😕
Why not just carve a big penis warning like everyone else…
Oh. but You are 🤦♀️
But the big pressure bubble was burst early, the pressure from defeat adds onto small pressure now, not a big pressure🥺
They don’t have to elect a Lib Dem as protest against fuel prices if they don’t actually blame government for the fuel prices? Is there particularly niche issue where they could blame government. Not enough government interest in the cost or heating oil in rural communities maybe? It could have been brought into energy price cap by now.
Good to see that there are alternatives coming for steel, not using coke. Was a bit confused as I was sure steel is a combination of iron and carbon. Where does the carbon come from for green steel?
AIUI the coal is used primarily for combustion, reducing the iron oxide to metal, without being of a source having so many impurities as to be contaminating the result too much with the wrong elements. Phosphorus and sulphur spring to mind - though I can't remember the details.
The carbon for the actual alloying can be simple pure carbon. ISTR that powdered charcoal in clay crucibles was used at one time (a very long time ago, from my memory of a trip around Sheffield and its museums).
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
No - @Applicant is misreading what the 2nd means by that.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
There really is.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
"well regulated" is as much there as "keep and bear", it doesn't mean that keeping and bearing is completely unrestricted.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Well if more Democrats moved from California and New York city to swing states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania it would be less of an issue.
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
They have done so in Texas and it seems to be working to divert a large amount of campaign resources.
The Dems always think they can somehow swing Texas, and never quite get there. Obviously, it’s a massive prize if they do.
Meanwhile, the GOP are appealing directly to the recent immigrants, reminding them of why they left California.
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
Putting CGT on primary residences would put a stop to people moving home.
What rot. It might take the heat out of the housing market by people will still more home for a whole host of reasons.
When did CGT stop people buying stock and shares? Or 2nd homes?
CGT should be tapered as it used to be. Some roll-over measures also reasonable perhaps. I'd have higher base CGT rate but with tapering. Hit short term gains harder also offsets inflation issue.
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
You just imagine how a bunch of Yorkshiremen would react to being lectured in Home Counties accents. Possibly Somersetshire folk might be more relaxed. But quite a few would be HC retirees/commuters anyway.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Well if more Democrats moved from California and New York city to swing states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania it would be less of an issue.
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
They have done so in Texas and it seems to be working to divert a large amount of campaign resources.
The Dems always think they can somehow swing Texas, and never quite get there. Obviously, it’s a massive prize if they do.
Meanwhile, the GOP are appealing directly to the recent immigrants, reminding them of why they left California.
Grave social problems that don't exist in Texas, like legal abortions.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Working from home has diluted that since 2010.
You still think this is 50/50 Mark?
I have no idea! We have a by-election caused by the resignation of an MP for watching porn in the Chamber, yet the campaign is nothing to do with his ethics but those of the PM. Since I visited the constituency we have had 3/4 of the backbench Tory MPs question their confidence in the PM. If that is matched by Tory voters, then the Can't Be Arsed Party will do very well today. We have also had the £2 litre in your car - and a return of 1970s Labour-Union love-ins for double-digit payclaims.
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
Not sure that would look great in the chalk downlands. 😕
Why not just carve a big penis warning like everyone else…
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
If it's been in Somerset that would explain a few things.
Good to see that there are alternatives coming for steel, not using coke. Was a bit confused as I was sure steel is a combination of iron and carbon. Where does the carbon come from for green steel?
AIUI the coal is used primarily for combustion, reducing the iron oxide to metal, without being of a source having so many impurities as to be contaminating the result too much with the wrong elements. Phosphorus and sulphur spring to mind - though I can't remember the details.
The carbon for the actual alloying can be simple pure carbon. ISTR that powdered charcoal in clay crucibles was used at one time (a very long time ago, from my memory of a trip around Sheffield and its museums).
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
That's just semantics though. A strict biblical reading leaves no room for any gun control at all. So we already have (unless there's a good reason) in brackets. It follows that the 'good reason' could be along the lines of 'to finally get on top of the endemic of gun crime'.
I'm afraid your logic breaks down, as the "good reason" is applied only at the individual level not at the population level.
Well what is a population but an aggregation of its individuals?
That is one of the most spectacular missings of the point that I've ever seen on PB.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
Young families getting stung because they need to move to a bigger house when having children is not a good look nor a good policy
Stamp duty says Hi!
Quite. So further penalising would be excessive. Why not tax the growth in value year to year too?
That's what CGT does shirley?
I'd scrap Stamp Duty when introducing CGT on primary residences.
The bottom line is, there's a triangle Spending - Borrowing - Taxation.
Cutting spending damages public services and the economy; borrowing is unsustainable.
Therefore taxation will have to be raised for the next few years to get us through this crisis. People in the top percentiles (myself included, plus many on here, I suspect) can more easily afford to pay more taxes, and so should. If not CGT on private residences something else will be required. A wealth tax maybe; taxing the value of those residences even if they don't go up.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
I am very well aware of what happened in 2010. The Tories also won Shropshire N in 2010 etc etc etc.
I'm not quite sure where those average ages come from. They sound wrong. I am also very well aware of T and H demographics, but there are plenty of people who actually work for a living!
The House of Commons Library publishes a lot of constituency level data online:
Using the most recent population estimates (for 2020) for Tiverton and Honiton, and playing with the relevant features on the dashboard, it would appear that the median age of the whole population in the constituency is about 49; that of the electorate (i.e. fiddling with the numbers to subtract all the children) is about 55. Over 60s are substantially over-represented in the local population in T&H; those aged 20-40 are substantially under-represented; it's a bit closer to the national averages for children and the middle aged.
Jeepers. I was just the nearly the victim of an extremely clever, elaborate banking fraud
Call from "Santander Fraud Dept". They spoofed the right Santander number and even had the correct social media accounts of Santander employees when asked
My mum got one of the texts a week or so back, and phoned me to check if it was legit. Just told her to delete it, which she did.
The elaborate stuff comes when you've already half fallen for it. I'm very glad you dodged the scam.
I just stopped a tenant falling for that one.
In the supplied her with a printout as to how it worked.
Interestingly, her 30 year old son was far clearer about it, and about 'forget and move on'.
The obvious way to check it is a scam is to call the bank yourself. Which I did. But then you end up in a call queue which seems endless - even the fraud action line dumps you in a prolonged queue. And this is also hideously expensive if you are calling from Tbilisi (which I was)
So then you end up making a judgement in the moment, "what if there really ARE fraudsters who are controlling my account and I need to act immediately?" versus "would my bank really ever ask me to transfer money?"
It seems obvious that you should pay more attention to the second question (and I did, in the end), but they very cleverly make you focus on the first with a series of compelling details. Presumably honed over months, as they have learned what works and what doesn't
Banks really need to sort out these fucking call queues, because without access to a real human being on the other end of the line you cannot know for sure
My view is that my bank will never phone me with any request whatsoever about transfers or passcodes or whatever.
Anyone who contacts me about such things is a fraudster until proved otherwise is my modus.
When I was still in England, someone from may bank phoned me up and it seemed to be about a legitimate subject. Then he started asking me low level personal details IDK address, postcode, DOB. At this point I said "Hold on you have just rung me..." So I asked for his name and department and I rang that bank's main phone number and asked to be put through to him. It turned out he was calling legitimatly, but I still think I did the right think and he should not have been asking me those questions.
Of course the difference is, that if it is legitimate the caller has no problems with you doing this. Where as the other stories today the conmen try to convince you that calling back will just waste your time and lead to you losing your money.
The problem banks (and anyone else) have is that they have a duty of care to ensure they are speaking to the correct person. They have no idea who else might answer so they have to go through security checks on outbound or inbound calls regardless. So yes, any legitimate caller will be fine with you calling them back but they will legitimately need to take security details if calling you. Else its 'that was my partner, whom i'm acrimoniously divorcing, that you discussed my account with'
While that is true, there should be a way for them to establish their identity with you, as that would be the surest way to deal with the issues with scam calls. It's nuts that I'm expected to give out security information to a complete random whose identity I can't verify.
So you call them back on a number you have for them. Until they know they are talking to you giving any details is potentially negligent.
But “calling them back” is bloody hard if you’re in T’bilisi, and it is doubly bloody hard in these post-Covid days when every call meets a 4 hour queue “at this exceptionally busy time”
No wonder the scammers are prospering
""Hold on you have just rung me..."
I did this a few months ago on a call from my insurer about a payment. I asked them to prove to me they were genuine. She seemed fine about it.
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
You just imagine how a bunch of Yorkshiremen would react to being lectured in Home Counties accents. Possibly Somersetshire folk might be more relaxed. But quite a few would be HC retirees/commuters anyway.
Somersetshire folk would probably be bemused, since the by-election is in Devon.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
No - @Applicant is misreading what the 2nd means by that.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
There really is.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
"well regulated" is as much there as "keep and bear", it doesn't mean that keeping and bearing is completely unrestricted.
Ah, you included the preamble which isn't part of the right. A very common error.
It doesn't say "the right of the people to keep and bear arms so that they can be in a militia shall not be infringed".
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
European gas futures move higher as Germany sounds supply alarm
This crisis is not going away anytime soon
I understand the UK is set to export gas to Europe
AIUI there's a couple of large LNG terminals in Britain taking in more gas, but our ability to ship it on through interconnectors is limited so much of it is going to be burned in power stations, and we'll send them the electricity instead.
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
You just imagine how a bunch of Yorkshiremen would react to being lectured in Home Counties accents. Possibly Somersetshire folk might be more relaxed. But quite a few would be HC retirees/commuters anyway.
Somersetshire folk would probably be bemused, since the by-election is in Devon.
Quite right. Devon it is. Been muddling Cullompton and Castle Cary rail stations mentally, as a result of recent discussions on PB.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Well if more Democrats moved from California and New York city to swing states like Arizona, Ohio and Pennsylvania it would be less of an issue.
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
They have done so in Texas and it seems to be working to divert a large amount of campaign resources.
The Dems always think they can somehow swing Texas, and never quite get there. Obviously, it’s a massive prize if they do.
Meanwhile, the GOP are appealing directly to the recent immigrants, reminding them of why they left California.
Grave social problems that don't exist in Texas, like legal abortions.
That might be your reason for moving the other way, but that’s not the direction in which the actual migration is happening. They’re running away from high taxes, and social issues like the streets being filled with human excrement from tent cities.
Good to see that there are alternatives coming for steel, not using coke. Was a bit confused as I was sure steel is a combination of iron and carbon. Where does the carbon come from for green steel?
AIUI the coal is used primarily for combustion, reducing the iron oxide to metal, without being of a source having so many impurities as to be contaminating the result too much with the wrong elements. Phosphorus and sulphur spring to mind - though I can't remember the details.
The carbon for the actual alloying can be simple pure carbon. ISTR that powdered charcoal in clay crucibles was used at one time (a very long time ago, from my memory of a trip around Sheffield and its museums).
Coking coal can serve three purposes in the production of steel, and all *can* be replaced, with various difficulties.
Allowing the Cumbrian coking coal mine to go ahead is the correct thing to do, it will actually reduce CO2 emissions in the short-term as coal will not have to be transported as far. When an economically viable non-coal steel making process is introduced then it can be phased out. The only reason the government paused things was vacuous PR considerations surrounding COP in Glasgow and possibly because the shopping trolly aka PM was getting an earful from Carrie and upper middle class eco warriors like Goldsmith.
I'm imagining HYUFD doing his T&H phone canvassing:
"Good morning. I'm phoning on behalf of the Conservative candidate in this week's by-election. Would you mind telling me how you voted in the 2019 General Election?" "Well, I normally vote Tory, but on that occasion I voted for the Liberal Democrats". "So, you're not a proper Tory. Get stuffed. Goodbye."
I simply cannot understand why Liz Truss’s office was so insistent that HY comes along to help in the first place?
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Yes. Normally it might not be such an issue - you always get imperfections in voting systems - but I think now it really is with the polarization over there and the GOP having gone rogue. The Dems should be thinking very hard about how to fight back. It'll only get worse after the MidTerms if they go as expected.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
I am very well aware of what happened in 2010. The Tories also won Shropshire N in 2010 etc etc etc.
I'm not quite sure where those average ages come from. They sound wrong. I am also very well aware of T and H demographics, but there are plenty of people who actually work for a living!
The House of Commons Library publishes a lot of constituency level data online:
Using the most recent population estimates (for 2020) for Tiverton and Honiton, and playing with the relevant features on the dashboard, it would appear that the median age of the whole population in the constituency is about 49; that of the electorate (i.e. fiddling with the numbers to subtract all the children) is about 55. Over 60s are substantially over-represented in the local population in T&H; those aged 20-40 are substantially under-represented; it's a bit closer to the national averages for children and the middle aged.
Comparable values for Wakefield: population median 41, electorate median 49, with a profile very similar to the UK average.
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
If you feel able to comment, HYUFD, am I right in thinking that the Conservative phonebank effort has been overwhelmingly in Somerset, with Wakefield largely left to local activists?
You just imagine how a bunch of Yorkshiremen would react to being lectured in Home Counties accents. Possibly Somersetshire folk might be more relaxed. But quite a few would be HC retirees/commuters anyway.
Somersetshire folk would probably be bemused, since the by-election is in Devon.
Quite right. Devon it is. Been muddling Cullompton and Castle Cary rail stations mentally, as a result of recent discussions on PB.
Good to see that there are alternatives coming for steel, not using coke. Was a bit confused as I was sure steel is a combination of iron and carbon. Where does the carbon come from for green steel?
AIUI the coal is used primarily for combustion, reducing the iron oxide to metal, without being of a source having so many impurities as to be contaminating the result too much with the wrong elements. Phosphorus and sulphur spring to mind - though I can't remember the details.
The carbon for the actual alloying can be simple pure carbon. ISTR that powdered charcoal in clay crucibles was used at one time (a very long time ago, from my memory of a trip around Sheffield and its museums).
Coking coal can serve three purposes in the production of steel, and all *can* be replaced, with various difficulties.
Allowing the Cumbrian coking coal mine to go ahead is the correct thing to do, it will actually reduce CO2 emissions in the short-term as coal will not have to be transported as far. When an economically viable non-coal steel making process is introduced then it can be phased out. The only reason the government paused things was vacuous PR considerations surrounding COP in Glasgow and possibly because the shopping trolly aka PM was getting an earful from Carrie and upper middle class eco warriors like Goldsmith.
Isn't deep mining less efficient than open cast? But yes, transport is easier. Trundle it across the old railway lines built to take Cumbrian iron ore and coal to the Midlands smelters, presumably (which would be necessary for the imported coal anyway).
Comments
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Tiverton and Honiton
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/live-updates-wakefield-election-polls-24296440
https://www.devonlive.com/news/devon-news/tiverton-honiton-election-polling-day-7239430
Camera at eye level or slightly above, use a light to ensure no face shadows, a plain background (or something that might be a conversation piece), don’t use a software ‘background’ unless you have to. Get a decent webcam if you can. Have a backup device on 4G connection, also at eye level, even if it’s your phone on a stack of books.
Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·41s
🚨Lord Frost says @BorisJohnson
should stop making "factually inaccurate statements"
🚨Warns he has 3 months to get a "grip".
👀Ominous message: Brexit is working, but the PM's premiership isn't.
The latest #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1540021808350789632
Also, on your first point - another fucking sop to old people and bout of short termism to raise more today at the expense of tomorrow's taxpayers.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1539991640760352770?t=kN2Y5YKaesM1GEUwPMjfGA&s=19
I think we don't know much about how retired incomers vote, except I'd be tempted to put them down as harder to convert away from Tory-Labour voting patterns built up during their working life than a comparable retired person who lived in rural areas for decades.
That being said, Lib Dems have been able to do well in seats with this kind of demographic in the past, both in the south west and far outside it from the Lake District to North Norfolk.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-61908875
We forget Blair had these total CRINGE moments
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
When did CGT stop people buying stock and shares? Or 2nd homes?
Looking back, I believe the conviction of the first guy quickened when I said “I am in Georgia, in the Caucasus”
He cannot have known that, surely? Or maybe they check social media for flint knappers?
Anyway he said very fast “Ah gosh, sir, then this must be doubly alarming, let’s get it sorted as quickly as possible so you can enjoy your travels, and you don’t want a long phone call either, do you?” VERY calm and reassuring and amiable, and deft. He got me onside quick. Me and him were a team against the awful scammers
Devious fuckers! Shame his “colleague” said “I went to, er, college at Royal Holloway, before University”
I'm not quite sure where those average ages come from. They sound wrong. I am also very well aware of T and H demographics, but there are plenty of people who actually work for a living!
Why not tax the growth in value year to year too?
They only win the popular vote but lose the EC in presidential elections like 2000 and 2016 as they pile up votes in the former and not in the swing states
This crisis is not going away anytime soon
I understand the UK is set to export gas to Europe
But “calling them back” is bloody hard if you’re in T’bilisi, and it is doubly bloody hard in these post-Covid days when every call meets a 4 hour queue “at this exceptionally busy time”
No wonder the scammers are prospering
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
Renewables investment for the long term and affordable, reliable energy (like coking coal) in the short term.
"Good morning. I'm phoning on behalf of the Conservative candidate in this week's by-election. Would you mind telling me how you voted in the 2019 General Election?"
"Well, I normally vote Tory, but on that occasion I voted for the Liberal Democrats".
"So, you're not a proper Tory. Get stuffed. Goodbye."
TBF I suspect 99.999% of the 'entire nation' missed that moment. I know I did.
Just over 3 hours until polls close in the by elections. Polling still "brisk" I'm sure...
Why not just carve a big penis warning like everyone else…
Oh. but You are 🤦♀️
But the big pressure bubble was burst early, the pressure from defeat adds onto small pressure now, not a big pressure🥺
They don’t have to elect a Lib Dem as protest against fuel prices if they don’t actually blame government for the fuel prices? Is there particularly niche issue where they could blame government. Not enough government interest in the cost or heating oil in rural communities maybe? It could have been brought into energy price cap by now.
Thanks for the feedback 🫡
The carbon for the actual alloying can be simple pure carbon. ISTR that powdered charcoal in clay crucibles was used at one time (a very long time ago, from my memory of a trip around Sheffield and its museums).
But no doubt @JosiasJessop will correct me.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
"well regulated" is as much there as "keep and bear", it doesn't mean that keeping and bearing is completely unrestricted.
Meanwhile, the GOP are appealing directly to the recent immigrants, reminding them of why they left California.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/20/ukraine-war-germany-turns-to-coal-as-russia-throttles-gas-supplies.html
I suspect they'll lose all their money, mind.
Just the model for it.
https://leard.frontlineaction.org/coking-coal-steel-production-alternatives/
Coking coal can serve three purposes in the production of steel, and all *can* be replaced, with various difficulties.
I'd scrap Stamp Duty when introducing CGT on primary residences.
The bottom line is, there's a triangle Spending - Borrowing - Taxation.
Cutting spending damages public services and the economy; borrowing is unsustainable.
Therefore taxation will have to be raised for the next few years to get us through this crisis. People in the top percentiles (myself included, plus many on here, I suspect) can more easily afford to pay more taxes, and so should. If not CGT on private residences something else will be required. A wealth tax maybe; taxing the value of those residences even if they don't go up.
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/constituency-dashboard/
Using the most recent population estimates (for 2020) for Tiverton and Honiton, and playing with the relevant features on the dashboard, it would appear that the median age of the whole population in the constituency is about 49; that of the electorate (i.e. fiddling with the numbers to subtract all the children) is about 55. Over 60s are substantially over-represented in the local population in T&H; those aged 20-40 are substantially under-represented; it's a bit closer to the national averages for children and the middle aged.
I did this a few months ago on a call from my insurer about a payment. I asked them to prove to me they were genuine. She seemed fine about it.
It doesn't say "the right of the people to keep and bear arms so that they can be in a militia shall not be infringed".
"Homosexuality is an abnormal lifestyle choice..."
@SavantaComRes
📈11pt Labour lead
🌳Con 31 (-3)
🌹Lab 42 (+2)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🎗️SNP 4 (=)
🌍Gre 5 (+1)
⬜️Other 7 (-1)
2,050 UK adults, 17-19 Jun
(chg from 10-12 Jun)"