No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
You do know where he lives don't you @hyufd? I disagreed with @JonWC very early on re the outcome. Neither of us know who was right but I respect his local knowledge as I do @marqueemark
Isn't it needed for the manufacturing of steel, which is quite an important commodity?
Correct and it is coking coal we currently import.
So until we get coke from windmills or solar panels, we'll have to do a bit of coal mining on the side?
The replacement technology - Google “Green steel” - is being developed at the moment.
It’s not quite clear which processes will be the ones to go for - processes, because it will probably be different according to the type of steel/iron you are trying to make.
So coking coal will be required for a decade or 2.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
Except it would obviously not be introduced as a retrospective tax... The value of the house at the point of introduction of the tax would be the base value. Stamp duty abolished. Personal CGT allowances available. There's no reason why most people would end up much worse off downsizing. And a smaller house obviously gives less potential future CGT.
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
Oh, if it’s not going to be retrospective, what’s the point? Introducing CGT on primary residences just as house prices plateau or even fall, would be very funny.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
Working from home has diluted that since 2010.
You still think this is 50/50 Mark?
I have no idea! We have a by-election caused by the resignation of an MP for watching porn in the Chamber, yet the campaign is nothing to do with his ethics but those of the PM. Since I visited the constituency we have had 3/4 of the backbench Tory MPs question their confidence in the PM. If that is matched by Tory voters, then the Can't Be Arsed Party will do very well today. We have also had the £2 litre in your car - and a return of 1970s Labour-Union love-ins for double-digit payclaims.
Voting for the LibDems today would be the only way to tell Boris to fuck off and die. Some may do that, maybe enough, but going "Bollocks to Brexit" will stick in the craw of a strongly Brexit seat. If the LibDems win, they will 99.9999% lose it at the general. Unless the Unflushable Turd is still loitering in the pan. In which case, us activists are going to have to carve in 100 foot high letters in the chalk downlands YOU DO KNOW YOU BORIS-LOVING TORY TWATS ARE ALL GOING TO LOSE YOUR SEATS?
Not sure that would look great in the chalk downlands. 😕
Why not just carve a big penis warning like everyone else…
Oh. but You are 🤦♀️
I am not the Cerne Abbas giant.
Just the model for it.
That’s the PB way. Come back at us hard.
Anyway, I’m two hours advanced here and we’re going clubbing. I’ll look at the results when I get back to hotel. 🙋♀️
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
Except it would obviously not be introduced as a retrospective tax... The value of the house at the point of introduction of the tax would be the base value. Stamp duty abolished. Personal CGT allowances available. There's no reason why most people would end up much worse off downsizing. And a smaller house obviously gives less potential future CGT.
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
Oh, if it’s not going to be retrospective, what’s the point? Introducing CGT on primary residences just as house prices plateau or even fall, would be very funny.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
You do know where he lives don't you @hyufd? I disagreed with @JonWC very early on re the outcome. Neither of us know who was right but I respect his local knowledge as I do @marqueemark
An eternity ago when I thought the Tories were fairly likely to hold. Mind you if Boris had been ejected as I hoped and expected the Tory would have won.
The US seems to have taken another step towards the abyss with the Supreme Court ruling on the 2nd amendment. Now the legitimacy of both the court and the constitution are openly being questioned.
@KeithOlbermann It has become necessary to dissolve the Supreme Court of the United States.
The first step is for a state the "court" has now forced guns upon, to ignore this ruling.
Great. You're a court? Why and how do think you can enforce your rulings?
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
No - @Applicant is misreading what the 2nd means by that.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
That sounds more - to me - that people who are part of the organized militia need weapons.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Hang on: the UK is unique in the quantity of inflation linked bonds they have issued. Their "miss" on interest is a consequence of them not having forecast Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
Didn't the last forecast come out after the invasion had begun though?
Also, on your first point - another fucking sop to old people and bout of short termism to raise more today at the expense of tomorrow's taxpayers.
I completely agree that we've issued far too many. It's eliminated almost all the benefits of long dated debt.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
The Dems didn't win the popular vote at a Presidential level in 1988 or 2004 both periods of which saw judges appointed who are still on the Court by both Bushes. The Senate also has to approve SC judges and over that time the GOP controlled the Senate from 1994 to 2000 and 2002 to 2006 and 2014 to 2020
Right. And the Senate is rigged for the GOP, isn't it.
No it isn't as each State gets 2 Senators, it is unriggable
Yes but you know what I mean. 2 for California, 2 for Wyoming. That plus the 60/40 rule and the filibuster has the nation held to ransom by the GOP even though the GOP is the minority party. And now even worse - because the GOP itself is held to ransom by Trump/MAGA, its biggest faction but also a minority of its voters (if not its base). As the Stranglers declared years ago - and it's so relevant they could have been speaking about this exact situation in America today - Something Better Change.
I'm sticking to my predictions from the beginning of the by election campaigns even though I have had my doubts because of posts here suggesting Lab are doing very well in Wakefield and doubts about LDs in T&H. This is all gut. I have no inside or local info.
Wakefield - Labour win in close result. LD lose deposit badly. T&H - LD win well. Labour lost deposit
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
I wonder if Dems are dispirited knowing that invariably that their votes are worth several % points less than those of Reps? The GOP trying to squeeze them even more probably doesn’t help matters.
Yes. Normally it might not be such an issue - you always get imperfections in voting systems - but I think now it really is with the polarization over there and the GOP having gone rogue. The Dems should be thinking very hard about how to fight back. It'll only get worse after the MidTerms if they go as expected.
Not an exact comparison but I imagine a bit like late eighties, early nineties here - 'Wtf else can we do?!' (special extreme vibe of this in Scotland). As I've said before youth-driven Unionising seems one glimmer of hope.
There are going to be a lot of retired or semi-retired engineers coming back to bring the coal plants back into production. Thousands of them earning top Euro.
I'm sticking to my predictions from the beginning of the by election campaigns even though I have had my doubts because of posts here suggesting Lab are doing very well in Wakefield and doubts about LDs in T&H. This is all gut. I have no inside or local info.
Wakefield - Labour win in close result. LD lose deposit badly. T&H - LD win well. Labour lost deposit
Got a facebook ad today saying vote Labour in T and H. There is quite a solid Labour core here. Honiton had a bit of a railway presence which is supposed to be the reason, Tiverton the wool industry.
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
The Dems didn't win the popular vote at a Presidential level in 1988 or 2004 both periods of which saw judges appointed who are still on the Court by both Bushes. The Senate also has to approve SC judges and over that time the GOP controlled the Senate from 1994 to 2000 and 2002 to 2006 and 2014 to 2020
Right. And the Senate is rigged for the GOP, isn't it.
No it isn't as each State gets 2 Senators, it is unriggable
Yes but you know what I mean. 2 for California, 2 for Wyoming. That plus the 60/40 rule and the filibuster has the nation held to ransom by the GOP even though the GOP is the minority party. And now even worse - because the GOP itself is held to ransom by Trump/MAGA, its biggest faction but also a minority of its voters (if not its base). As the Stranglers declared years ago - and it's so relevant they could have been speaking about this exact situation in America today - Something Better Change.
It isn't as the House districts are determined by population for example.
It is also the United States of America for a reason, States rights are pivotal to keep the USA united
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
The average age in Tiverton and Honiton is 53, significantly higher than the UK average of 48.
In 2010 the Tories also won the seat comfortably with a majority of over 9000 even when the LDs were polling significantly higher than they are even now
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
That's just semantics though. A strict biblical reading leaves no room for any gun control at all. So we already have (unless there's a good reason) in brackets. It follows that the 'good reason' could be along the lines of 'to finally get on top of the endemic of gun crime'.
I'm afraid your logic breaks down, as the "good reason" is applied only at the individual level not at the population level.
Well what is a population but an aggregation of its individuals?
That is one of the most spectacular missings of the point that I've ever seen on PB.
That was purely the preamble to my ruling. Preamble is key but has to be read as part of the whole.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
Except it would obviously not be introduced as a retrospective tax... The value of the house at the point of introduction of the tax would be the base value. Stamp duty abolished. Personal CGT allowances available. There's no reason why most people would end up much worse off downsizing. And a smaller house obviously gives less potential future CGT.
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
Oh, if it’s not going to be retrospective, what’s the point? Introducing CGT on primary residences just as house prices plateau or even fall, would be very funny.
Not really. Introducing GCT on primary residences could well help dampen house price inflation. That could only be a good thing.
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
Stroud or Stonehouse in Gloucestershire might be worth a look. They would seem to fit most of your criteria depending on what you mean by 'sensible property prices.'
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
Warminster is nice. Bath is 30-40 mins by train or car, London perhaps 2 hours by train (best via west bury). Lovely park, decent shops for a small town - deli, butchers, independent DIY. Salisbury plain (wild chalk lands) to the north and east, forest to the south and west. Not too pricey. Three bed semi around 300K, bungalows time be had too.
Re: live blog from today's by-election (believe straights and even trans are also eligible to vote?) in Yorkshire, note that the video clip labeled" Wakefield Polling Stations open ahead of by-election features an elector (at 1.41) who is sporting a T-shirt reading "Explore Washington" that features an outline of WA State emblazoned "State Coastline".
Which is tad misleading, as most of state's boundary is NOT coastline but what the heck? You go, dude - regardless of which way you voted!
BTW, appears that the weather up in north Yorks is quite nice.
No eve of poll or good morning leaflets from anyone. There is a LibDem teller but no Tory.
Interesting. Were it not for Chesham id think Shropshire N was an abberation based on Paterson and Dogs behaviour but Chesham makes me think this is gone gone gone. But no last minute bumph? My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
Firstly, it may well be that betting markets have overcorrected.
But that doesn't mean it's all narrative and no facts.
JonWC saying he's seen relatively little activity is interesting, although it doesn't really tie up with numbers of activists piling in and some other responses and vox pops from the area. I think he's said he is in one of the local villages, and it seems conceivable (and perhaps unsurprising) that the Tiverton, Honiton and Cullompton have seen disproportionate action. I do think there is good evidence it's had a strong Lib Dem campaign as seen in two recent, successful efforts.
The mood music also matters. The Lib Dem campaign team presumably have a decent amount and quality of data. Not perfect, and turnout matters a lot, but decent. If they felt they were coming up short based on that data, they'd be trying to reposition - all the "a mountain to climb", "give them a scare", "strong Brexit area", "never mind the win, look at the swing" stuff would come in. That isn't happening. It's quite possible they've misjudged it - parties do - but these are people with a lot of data behaving as if they are looking at the hat-trick.
You can't really get away with getting smashed in the villages here though - they are about 35pct of the total electors and more of the likely voters. Plus the town I have seen nothing from is actually the third biggest, after Tiverton and Honiton. It is one of only 4 polling districts the LDs appear to have matched or bettered the Tories in the only time they got any worthwhile vote, and the other three were all villages and include the one I live in!
I agree they can't get "smashed" in the villages. I'm just making the point that activity levels (in all seats) can and do vary a fair bit across a constituency. So personal experience is interesting but may not be representative. Certainly, activists have been piling in, and they have been busy whilst there.
I still expect the LibDems to win on a tide of "what part of Boris out don't you understand?" but I'm becoming less confident. Your last sentence cannot possibly be correct if they are not really visible in a good quarter of the constituency as far as I can see. There is a fairly limited amount you can do on the phone now and the doorstep requires massive numbers of repeat canvass sweeps and it simply has not happened.
I posted something recently that iirc came from the Polling Station podcast about LibDems appealing for cars so they could campaign in the more rural parts of the constituency where houses are too far apart to make walking sensible. From what @HYUFD has said, it sounds like the Conservatives are relying on phone canvassing rather than boots on the ground.
Tiverton and Honiton is a largely rural seat, most voters will already have voted by post or earlier in the day.
If the LDs have not already won it they have probably lost it, there are only a handful of outlying farms and villages you can reach in 4 or 5 hours left of polling
Again this is not quite true. In 2010 there was a surge of voting around home time. The Tories even said they were worried to see all those youngish voters..
In urban city areas like Sheffield, not rural areas like Tiverton and Honiton made up of small towns, villages and farms and pensioners
I rather suspect I know a fair bit about when the voters come out in T and H...
You do know where he lives don't you @hyufd? I disagreed with @JonWC very early on re the outcome. Neither of us know who was right but I respect his local knowledge as I do @marqueemark
An eternity ago when I thought the Tories were fairly likely to hold. Mind you if Boris had been ejected as I hoped and expected the Tory would have won.
Yep. Although I thought differently I am always careful about arguing with someone who has more knowledge than me.
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
The constitution doesn't say everyone has the right to wander about New York City packing a revolver. It's open to interpretation. Which I personally would expect SC judges to have the mental capacity to manage.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
The New York law, as I understand, strayed away from "bearing arms is OK unless there's a proven reason to take away that right" to "you have to convince the state to let you bear arms".
That reversal of the presumption is pretty clearly incompatible with a strict reading of the text of the Second Amendment.
So on a strict interpretation one would be allowed to keep a tank on the front lawn and a thermonuclear device in the garden shed?
No - @Applicant is misreading what the 2nd means by that.
"The right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed".
There really isn't any significant room for interpretation here.
There really is.
"A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed."
"well regulated" is as much there as "keep and bear", it doesn't mean that keeping and bearing is completely unrestricted.
It goes further, when you use common sense. It means that we are not a pacifist state, and it cannot be contrary to law to have a Militia which is armed, and sometimes militia members will keep weaponry on their person and accessible.
"The people" has a totally different meaning from "each person".
When interpreted in the ludicrous way that the USA has done it is contradictory not to allow a two year old to have and use machine guns. It isn't possible that this was meant.
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
Salisbury? Quaint little town really, but also a city with all the facilities and trains to London. Stroud or Cirencester also quite nice.
Jeepers. I was just the nearly the victim of an extremely clever, elaborate banking fraud
Call from "Santander Fraud Dept". They spoofed the right Santander number and even had the correct social media accounts of Santander employees when asked
My mum got one of the texts a week or so back, and phoned me to check if it was legit. Just told her to delete it, which she did.
The elaborate stuff comes when you've already half fallen for it. I'm very glad you dodged the scam.
I just stopped a tenant falling for that one.
In the supplied her with a printout as to how it worked.
Interestingly, her 30 year old son was far clearer about it, and about 'forget and move on'.
The obvious way to check it is a scam is to call the bank yourself. Which I did. But then you end up in a call queue which seems endless - even the fraud action line dumps you in a prolonged queue. And this is also hideously expensive if you are calling from Tbilisi (which I was)
So then you end up making a judgement in the moment, "what if there really ARE fraudsters who are controlling my account and I need to act immediately?" versus "would my bank really ever ask me to transfer money?"
It seems obvious that you should pay more attention to the second question (and I did, in the end), but they very cleverly make you focus on the first with a series of compelling details. Presumably honed over months, as they have learned what works and what doesn't
Banks really need to sort out these fucking call queues, because without access to a real human being on the other end of the line you cannot know for sure
My view is that my bank will never phone me with any request whatsoever about transfers or passcodes or whatever.
Anyone who contacts me about such things is a fraudster until proved otherwise is my modus.
When I was still in England, someone from may bank phoned me up and it seemed to be about a legitimate subject. Then he started asking me low level personal details IDK address, postcode, DOB. At this point I said "Hold on you have just rung me..." So I asked for his name and department and I rang that bank's main phone number and asked to be put through to him. It turned out he was calling legitimatly, but I still think I did the right think and he should not have been asking me those questions.
Of course the difference is, that if it is legitimate the caller has no problems with you doing this. Where as the other stories today the conmen try to convince you that calling back will just waste your time and lead to you losing your money.
It's cleverer than that. The first actor said "oh yes please do call us back to check, I just warn you there are queues"
He invited me to check him out. But there were enormous queues (of course he knew this)
So I had no means of checking him except by asking him questions, which I did, and eventually their answers got more and more iffy, until I called it off
I have the minor, consoling pleasure that, by the end, when he realised I wasn't falling for it, the "manager" sounded decidedly hacked off that he'd fucked up
They must have been really hacked off, for sure, having struck so lucky in chancing upon someone so patently gullible in the first place!
Quite possibly
Looking back, I believe the conviction of the first guy quickened when I said “I am in Georgia, in the Caucasus”
He cannot have known that, surely? Or maybe they check social media for flint knappers?
Anyway he said very fast “Ah gosh, sir, then this must be doubly alarming, let’s get it sorted as quickly as possible so you can enjoy your travels, and you don’t want a long phone call either, do you?” VERY calm and reassuring and amiable, and deft. He got me onside quick. Me and him were a team against the awful scammers
Devious fuckers! Shame his “colleague” said “I went to, er, college at Royal Holloway, before University”
Well all's well that ends well. Don't let it knock your confidence. That would be letting them win. Get straight back on the horse and field your calls with brio.
Take a globetrotting tour of some of the world's most fascinating abandoned islands courtesy of this new coffee-table book.
Abandoned Islands by Claudia Martin, published by Amber Books, is a lavishly illustrated compendium of 'some of the world's eeriest places... a brilliant pictorial exploration of lost worlds'.
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
A pity it has to be in the south of England because there are so many great places slightly further north.
Ok here's a PB challenge. Mrs P and I are planning to move in the next few years. What's the best small town or large village to move to?
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
A pity it has to be in the south of England because there are so many great places slightly further north.
It's also quite restrictive on the old 'sensible property prices' front.
Truth is, anywhere in the south of England with decent transport links to London or another major city does not currently have sensible property prices. Moreton in Marsh or Kemble would be perfect for @Benpointer save for that.
About the nearest equivalent to both AFAICS would be Lydney which has fairly easy access to motorway and rail networks but is unfortunately also a complete shithole.
Countries actively working on green steel: Sweden, US, South Korea, Germany, Austria.
Country discussing opening a new coal mine to make steel the 19th century way: UK.
It's embarrassing. And if we were to try to be leaders then we could be a good place for green steel manufacture, as we could produce the necessary hydrogen from excess wind energy. Stuck in the past again.
I've been very busy lately, just wanted to point out that the OBR are shit at forecasting. We're on track to spend £90-100bn on debt interest alone this year, something like 40% more than what the OBR forecast. Every single time they have underestimated inflation and it means the government is unable to properly plan tax rises and spending cuts.
Both the BoE and OBR have completely lost any credibility to forecast inflation. The Bank steadfastly saying that this is transitory is now only believed by simpletons.
Interest rates have to go up and go up fast. Spending needs to fall and fall fast. Any party that wins in 2024 is going to be left with a 2008 crash level of economic ruin with absolutely zero monetary road to kickstart the economy.
Fanciful ideas of 11% state pension rises need to be nixed by both major parties and spending in all areas needs to fall. If the old wankers don't like it they can lump it and vote for ukip.
Time to tax the wealthy more too. IHT needs to go up. CGT on prime residence - why is it protected? A wealth tax. Dramatically increase non-Dom taxes.
CGT on prime residences would be a poll tax moment for any party suggesting it
Well maybe, but why? Why should those assets be protected versus others?
There was a discussion on here the other day about how difficult it is to get oldies to downsize post kids leaving home. Capital gains tax on primary residences would only make this worse.
Except it would obviously not be introduced as a retrospective tax... The value of the house at the point of introduction of the tax would be the base value. Stamp duty abolished. Personal CGT allowances available. There's no reason why most people would end up much worse off downsizing. And a smaller house obviously gives less potential future CGT.
We need to start taking a few radical steps. if not these, what?
Oh, if it’s not going to be retrospective, what’s the point? Introducing CGT on primary residences just as house prices plateau or even fall, would be very funny.
Not really. Introducing GCT on primary residences could well help dampen house price inflation. That could only be a good thing.
It would also discourage trading down, resulting in people sticking with larger houses than they need to avoid a CGT Bill.
Twitter Paul Waugh@paulwaugh·41s 🚨Lord Frost says @BorisJohnson should stop making "factually inaccurate statements" 🚨Warns he has 3 months to get a "grip".
👀Ominous message: Brexit is working, but the PM's premiership isn't.
Just voted.. looking down at the marked register turnout was very low. Of course this is a tiny sample but 80pct would be typical for this village on GE day.
Friends will be friends When you're in need of love they give you care and attention Friends will be friends When you're through with life and all hope is lost Hold out your hand 'cause friends will be friends Right till the end.
Thank you, UK!
That’s awesome! Whoever is running social media for the Ukrainian government deserves a war medal, it’s been brilliant.
Are you being serious? Awesome? Looks like it was put together by a first year art student who had been told he might want to try his hand at accountancy.
Just voted.. looking down at the marked register turnout was very low. Of course this is a tiny sample but 80pct would be typical for this village on GE day.
Postal ballots are recorded in advance by crossings out, aren't they?
Beat me to it. Affirms the right to carry concealed weapons as part of everyday life. Removes the right to have a safe and legal abortion. Quite unfathomable.
It's quite fathomable - one is explicitly guaranteed by the constitution and the other isn't.
You might wish it otherwise, as I do. But we have to deal with the world as it actually is.
In the long run if enough voters actually vote for something they get it. This is true of the USA. The liberal media in the UK seem unable to grasp the point. Ultimately voters and legislators decide. And in the USA voters even get to decide the composition of the SC to an extent unthinkable in the UK.
Younger liberals might try voting.
With regard to abortion, the furthest the SC will go is simply to say it's a matter for legislators - as it is in the UK. Legislators are put there by voters.
Landslide Con majority on the SC in a nation where the Dems always win the Popular Vote.
That doesn't sound to me like people getting what they vote for.
The Dems didn't win the popular vote at a Presidential level in 1988 or 2004 both periods of which saw judges appointed who are still on the Court by both Bushes. The Senate also has to approve SC judges and over that time the GOP controlled the Senate from 1994 to 2000 and 2002 to 2006 and 2014 to 2020
Right. And the Senate is rigged for the GOP, isn't it.
No it isn't as each State gets 2 Senators, it is unriggable
Yes but you know what I mean. 2 for California, 2 for Wyoming. That plus the 60/40 rule and the filibuster has the nation held to ransom by the GOP even though the GOP is the minority party. And now even worse - because the GOP itself is held to ransom by Trump/MAGA, its biggest faction but also a minority of its voters (if not its base). As the Stranglers declared years ago - and it's so relevant they could have been speaking about this exact situation in America today - Something Better Change.
It isn't as the House districts are determined by population for example.
It is also the United States of America for a reason, States rights are pivotal to keep the USA united
Comments
It’s not quite clear which processes will be the ones to go for - processes, because it will probably be different according to the type of steel/iron you are trying to make.
So coking coal will be required for a decade or 2.
Anyway, I’m two hours advanced here and we’re going clubbing. I’ll look at the results when I get back to hotel. 🙋♀️
Tiverton & Honiton:
2019 — 4:49am
2017 — 4:50am
2015 — 7:54am
Wakefield:
2019 — 3:40am
2017 — 4:55am
2015 — 6:08am
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1mVF_IPhgNgMar-oH3Q4XhWJnpVt4UiECLkFhDIXwZlY/edit#gid=0
https://undark.org/2022/05/11/the-race-to-produce-green-steel/ Isn’t a bad summary of the state of play
Build more properties.
That sounds more - to me - that people who are part of the organized militia need weapons.
Wakefield - Labour win in close result. LD lose deposit badly.
T&H - LD win well. Labour lost deposit
Wakefield should be a solid Labour win
It’s what happens when a hierarchical hereditary system gets confronted with democracy.
You can see examples of this all the way from before Rome.
As I've said before youth-driven Unionising seems one glimmer of hope.
It needs to be in the south of England* (anywhere south of Worcester-Northampton-Norwich) for family reasons. Ideally it'll be somewhere with: lots going on, good transport connections, easy access to London or another major city, sensible property prices.
Any ideas?
(*Yes I know, there are lots of fantastic places to live outside the south of England, we have lived in some, but... family connections rule them out for us now.)
It is also the United States of America for a reason, States rights are pivotal to keep the USA united
Not too pricey. Three bed semi around 300K, bungalows time be had too.
Which is tad misleading, as most of state's boundary is NOT coastline but what the heck? You go, dude - regardless of which way you voted!
BTW, appears that the weather up in north Yorks is quite nice.
"The people" has a totally different meaning from "each person".
When interpreted in the ludicrous way that the USA has done it is contradictory not to allow a two year old to have and use machine guns. It isn't possible that this was meant.
Take a globetrotting tour of some of the world's most fascinating abandoned islands courtesy of this new coffee-table book.
Abandoned Islands by Claudia Martin, published by Amber Books, is a lavishly illustrated compendium of 'some of the world's eeriest places... a brilliant pictorial exploration of lost worlds'.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/travel/travel_news/article-10937167/Fascinating-new-coffee-table-book-reveals-worlds-eeriest-abandoned-islands.html
In marked contrast to neighboring Isle of Saints & Scholars!
Truth is, anywhere in the south of England with decent transport links to London or another major city does not currently have sensible property prices. Moreton in Marsh or Kemble would be perfect for @Benpointer save for that.
About the nearest equivalent to both AFAICS would be Lydney which has fairly easy access to motorway and rail networks but is unfortunately also a complete shithole.
Country discussing opening a new coal mine to make steel the 19th century way: UK.
It's embarrassing. And if we were to try to be leaders then we could be a good place for green steel manufacture, as we could produce the necessary hydrogen from excess wind energy. Stuck in the past again.