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Why lost LAB and LD deposits tonight would be bad news for CON – politicalbetting.com

Perhaps the worst news for the Tories that could come out of today’s Westminster by-elections is Labour losing its deposit in Tiverton and Honiton while the Lib Dems lose there’s in Wakefield.
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That is not how NET zero works. It means that overall our carbon emissions are zero - any C02 we produce is offset by removing CO2 elsewhere. It does not mean having no carbon emissions.
Doesn't mean such voting will happen in a General Election, any more than it did any of the plethora of prior times its happened at by-elections.
Its been all over the national media for the past month or so that Labour aren't campaigning in Tiverton etc - that kind of news is not repeated in a General Election where Starmer will be giving it his all to get attention, as will every other leader, and not be giving off "don't vote for us here, there, or there" signals.
No strikes threatened.
As for batteries / storage the important question becomes one of can wind + storage (batteries / concreate batteries / hydro pumped storage) be cheaper than gas / coal on days when wind isn't available.
LD last 3 Wakefield efforts 3.9, 2.0, 3.5. Utterly irrelevant how they do, like asking where the TUSC vote is going or the Natural Law vote. More interesting does anyone SAVE deposit showing a reluctance to go Labour?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Rail_Class_777
Any Tory voter not turning out to vote or not voting Tory is still +1 to Labour (one less Labour vote needed for Labour to win)
Electric usage is measured in the GWs but energy storage in the future could be in the TWh mark. Once every car and every van is electric, the storage of each of those batteries, distributed, will vastly be more than the amount of electricity that we use in general.
As homes and charging stations switch from petrol to electricity too, in can justify investing in energy storage. That way even if you are driving when the wind was blowing, when you come home you can use that (much cheaper) stored power to recharge your vehicle.
In the future, if cars are driving on windless days, using energy that was generated and stored on windy days, that is going to provide a real shift in how we consume our power and allow us to far, far, far exceed 100% of what is typical consumption today without it being wasted.
There are plenty of studies - and practical plans - for this. It would make sense to bring them forward as rapidly as possible, as they will pay for themselves. That's one of the things both we and Europe should be spending big money on now.
And including very large solar schemes in North Africa, if possible.
Energy storage is part of the equation. There are some practical and economic systems ready now (see Highview Power, for example), but as you say, it will take considerably longer.
And of course the ongoing electrification of transport will contribute a substantial distributed storage capacity as well.
Lab 43%
Con 36%
LD 5%
On the other aspect we are talking about Europe coping with the current Russian gas-flow reduction, and the lack of LNG import facilities.
We have them, and gas pipelines, so that can be used to fill a chunk of the gap left by the Russian turn-off.
And a smaller top-up-of-the-top up can be from our elecricity interconnectors.
It's interesting that the capacity of Gas Interconnectors (typically a 36 in or 40in pipe) is specified in either MWh/day or Billion Cubic Metres per year.
eg afaics the Becton-Balgzand gas interconnector pipeline is specced at 16 bcm of gas per annum or 623 MWh of energy per day (=26 GW continuous power).
For comparison UK gas usage is approx 72 bcm per annum, and we have 2 gas interconnectors. So our gas interconnectors may be able to supply the demand of say Belgium, which is a help, and assuming we have the infra from our LNG terminals to our pipelines. I just hope bloody Boris is very public about how we are helping out Brussels, rather than just arsesitting.
And UK electricity usage runs at about 35 GW continuous on average, and we have around 7 GW of electricity interconnector capacity.
(Ignoring interconnections to Ireland)
It will be interesting to see the impact on balance of payments. Electricity exports at this morning's level are several billion per annum.
https://twitter.com/RussInCheshire/status/1539934516478984192?t=ScVpwTsk29xjJ3Go58enew&s=19
By-election day in #TivertonandHoniton , so let me tell about their former MP, who was once one of the most famous people in England, a national hero, a disgraced fraudster, and an astonishingly accomplished piratical maniac.
He had quite a life. https://t.co/I8GildabvH
Could be better, absolutely
There are various type of storage, and the one that's most difficult to do at scale is the two weeks and above problem, which we've barely begun to address.
@MISTY rightly refers to the "wind drought" problem. Europe is quite compact in terms of land mass to total energy demand, and at a relatively high latitude, so reliant on wind (vs solar) to quite a large extent.
Although they are not common, periods of two weeks+ without any significant wind generation are not rare, either.
As we get more reliant on renewables, that becomes a bigger problem, and requires significant storage (something which if available at scale, and at reasonable cost would also further improve the economics of renewables).
Lots of interviews. But some employers really need to up their game.
- One advertised a permanent job but when she turned up it turned out to be a short-term 8 week contract doing something completely different to what was advertised.
- One well known hotel group spent half the interview bitching about its previous staff. On inquiry it turned out that most of their staff had only just been hired.
- One place wanted her to do shifts of a duration which would be in breach of the rules.
- Some don't bother to respond at all or leave it so long that they may as well not bother.
She has had a number of offers but two good ones, one in hospitality and one in events management. She's having a day with the latter this weekend to get to know the team and is, subject to no nasties being revealed, going to go with them. They had the most professional and friendly approach and are offering a good salary for a permanent job. Plus it gives her the best opportunity to expand her skills, network with a wide range of of people and learn about a new area, as well as giving her a bit of financial security.
So fingers crossed.
I know that finding good staff is not easy but treating applicants decently is the bare minimum. If Daughter could do it with her staff then more established employers can do the same.
Managing people, understanding them, motivating them, inspiring and leading them, teaching them, setting them a good example, setting them high expectations and making it clear what the boundaries are, what behaviour will not be accepted, what crosses the line, helping them get past their frailties, working effectively with them is hard work, the hardest work anyone ever has to do. And by far the most valuable – and rewarding.
It's the single most important thing employers need to do. Too many don't. Employees are people. Not "human resources". Ghastly phrase.
Rant over.
Harder 35%
Easier 15%
Don't know 30%
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1539934682963484672
"Summer will be hot for Russian occupiers..."
Does anyone in Government do Maths or what
Oh wait, we're talking about by elections.
WFH is awesome, I expected to have finished this report around 4pm today if I was in the office.
But because I started earlier with no commute I got it finished 3 hours early, and I can focus on other work things.
Already the technology to generate wind, cheaply, is here.
Already the technology to use wind, cheaply, is here.
Already the technology to store cheap electricity is here, and is becoming more widespread as we go on.
So there's no reason not to invest in wind. All the boxes are already ticked. Relying solely upon wind, that's another question, but its not a question for today (except in the planning stages, but nobody is planning solely wind anyway).
Wind is cheap, economic, viable and the technology is here today. Is there a single good reason why we should not be using it today, forget about 28 years from now for a minute, today, is there any reason not to use what is by far the cheapest form of electricity available to us?
Boris Johnson tells Prince Charles to ‘keep an open mind’ on Rwanda deportations
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/politics-live-23-06-2022-68wbs0rz0
*calculated in the same way, so we'll take MPs and councillors, add the salaries and divide by two.
They were modelled on the Prussian army, and they still use Pickelhaube (the ones with the spike as punctured the balloon in Those Magnificent Men) ceremonially, and Stahlhelm (German Army, WW2), and Goosestep.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_Army
These are Russians, though. Very Monty Python.
Though £33k+ median for "travel assistants, ticket collectors, guards and information staff" seems high. That's higher than many police officers or teachers get as far as I knew.
Prince Charles should be advised to STFU on politics. If he wants to be a politician, he should abdicate his position in the monarchy and run for election.
The SKS Labour party have four hurdles to overcome:
1) The Tories may not stick with Boris
2) They may stick with him, and he is a genius at winning when it counts, and being lucky when it matters
3) Labour would like, of course, to offer an honest, coherent, popular and plausible programme for government. They can't. Firstly because no-one can, and secondly because Labour stands for a number of completely incompatible ideologies.
4) SKS is dull
There is a big prize waiting for anyone who can combine 'popular' and 'honest' in their plan for the 5 years after the next election. No-one is even trying to find one at the moment.
I couldn't care less whether my electricity supply is getting switched from gas to wind and vice-versa once, ten times or a thousand times a day, so long as my supply is uninterrupted, and it is, and its as cheap as possible - which means using as much wind as possible, and as little gas as possible.
What about you?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wJAL_OR8-MY
What is it? Cars and in-home/business batteries that store electricity when it is at its cheapest.
Mass storage of electricity might end up being a moot point, if distributed storage of electricity is widespread.
They do get through the ammo quickly though, need to have a good supply line behind them.
Nuclear, tidal etc to provide a baseline, and wind to provide cheap electricity as much as possible, and to export cheap electricity, and to feed whatever is capable of storing cheap electricity (ie cars) with the baseline to provide what can't be provided from storage as a more expensive alternative is an entirely logical solution is it not?
Theirs a shocker in that header!
They will only have about 10 launchers, I think. Unless I am not up to date. UK only has 42 iirc and we have sent about 10% of ours, but that 42 may be a result of Treasury salami-slicing.
I hope this is just a temporary strain and isn't what its going to be like throughout forties onwards 😂
How are you?
I was surprised at the £33k figure, I have to admit.
...like, the cricket!
My instintive reaction to that is either its in the bag for LDs (massive mahoosive swing for it to be safe!) Or a relatively comfortable tory hold and we have been kidded along by the messaging but that is hugely counter intuituve.
Given how far back LDs are to start i cant see how they could be confident without the sort of voter strike/voter rage anecdata from Shropshire etc.....
What im asking is have we convinced ourselves this is a LD gain becauae it fits a narrative not because of facts? And has the betting overcorrected because of Chesham and Salop?
For reference Starmer does better amongst LDs than Lab voters on issues of trustworthiness (very slightly), PM in waiting (also very slightly) and in his role as Lab leader (as of YouGov trackers).
JRM is a moron. An international standard is a good idea
https://youtube.com/watch?v=MwCanzHpb5E
But, jokes aside, ive got a weird feeling here. Just the odd comment piece and throwaway line. No such doubts in Wakefield (although much easier to gain)
To clarify - by which i mean a weird feeling of it being a much easier hold (10 points plus) than it should conceivably be
Oh wait,...
Having said that, if the LDs don't win now it will be an upset, but if someone forced me to put £100 on the winner I'd probably put it in the Tories because of the odds.
There are USB-C cables rated for x watts so can't cope with y and others which are power only so can't be used for connecting item a to item b.
Some consistency in design there would have been helpful but it's too late now and too late change things.
Delighted to say that I stopped buying Apple before 1990, having never bought any - apart from one tablet. They haven't changed.
We have a long way to go until we can fully rely on renewables.
https://www.gridwatch.templar.co.uk/
I'm on Wakefield from early on, sold Con at 5, so I'm pretty happy about that.
Phone manufacturers have already all but one merged on USB-C which was done so without the EU forcing them to do so, and they did so with their own motivations because it was the right thing to do (indeed since early in the 21st century phone manufacturers were collaborating together on how to come up with a universal design, before USB-C was even designed).
But there should be absolutely nothing preventing innovation. USB-C has a plethora of flaws in the design, the protocols are not universal and some plug converters and some cables won't work with some devices. Half my USB-C cables are not powerful enough to allow the Nintendo Switch to operate on the TV for instance.
If someone can come up with a newer and much better design and wants to lead with it first, lets call it USB-D for reference, then there should not be a law preventing USB-D coming onto the market and insisting people continue to use the far inferior USB-C at that point.
Of course you can buy dodgy USB-A cables too that damage things, this is however not a reason not to enforce a connector standard.
The brilliant thing is that Thunderbolt and USB now have the same connector, so anything you would want to connect, can be connected.
Mine embarrassingly enough was a run in with a shopping trolley and a six year old. I was putting my daughter in the seat which she still loves to sit in, when she suddenly decided she didn't want to be in the seat and jerked to get herself into the trolley itself, without warning. I felt something go in my back then and there, it wasn't too bad for the next couple of days, but its been really bad all week this week. Hope it passes soon.