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The LDs step up the tactical squeeze on LAB voters in Devon – politicalbetting.com

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  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    Leon said:

    It seems like a strategic error from Starmer (unless he is lying - highly possible)

    He may or may not bring back the Red Wall but he is giving up on all of Remainia

    There is a huge opportunity here for the Lib Dems. For millions of people Brexit is still THE issue especially FoM. Remainers want it back
    We want it all back, but it's not happening anytime soon, one of the reasons it is hard to be anything other than pessimistic about the country's prospects right now. There will be at least two general elections before anything other than incremental improvements in our relationship with the EU is on the cards. Realistically, we probably need another ten years of Leavers dying* and the economic costs of leaving mounting before Labour will risk putting EEA to the electorate.

    * just demographic reality - I am not being morbid or taking any pleasure in it, before someone gets huffy.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,953
    Mortimer said:

    TBF I think Starmer has called the strikes correctly.

    All my left leaning metro friends are incensed at the 'greedy unions'.

    So greedy they're demanding a pay cut in real terms!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    Leon said:

    I’m not talking about rejoining the EU!

    We are talking about what Starmer said. Ruling out the SM and CU
    Looks like Theresa May might have the last laugh after all. If Starmer wins the next general election Brexit will end up looking much like her ditched deal rather than Boris' even harder line deal or the EEA deal Remainers wanted
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    Off topic

    Excellent podcast from Bari Weiss, just released;

    “Is crypto over? A debate”

    Well worth an hour or so of your time, imo.

    https://www.honestlypod.com/podcast/episode/247cc6c3/is-crypto-over-a-debate
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,546
    HYUFD said:

    Strategically to get elected it is vital for him.

    He cannot become PM without winning back the redwall and he will not win back the redwall without ruling out free movement/EEA.

    The LDs might make some extra gains in Remain seats if they become the only main UK wide party backing EEA but the LDs would back Starmer over Johnson as PM anyway
    But this could lose Labour a bunch of seats in big cities. Especially london
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,096

    This is demented, if true. You can't give pensioners a 10% pension hike then tell the people paying for it to accept way less:
    https://twitter.com/JosephineCumbo/status/1539165889785999360

    Yep. It is not a sustainable position to hold.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,498
    edited June 2022
    Have we done this wee policy from Spain. Pee in the sea and be fined. Enforcement technique as yet unidentified.

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/957130/swimmers-face-ps645-fine-for-peeing-in-the-sea

    Don't go to Weego.

    I'd have thought they need this more on the Mediterranean coast.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390

    Something very strange and troubling seems to have happened in 2016 according to this FT graph:

    image

    Fuck business investment!
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687
    Leon said:

    But this could lose Labour a bunch of seats in big cities. Especially london
    To whom - come election day who would your typical London Labour voter vote for - they ain't going to vote for Bozo...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    Something very strange and troubling seems to have happened in 2016 according to this FT graph:

    image

    Would want a longer time series and the equivalents for our rivals before I concluded anything.
  • The problem with the triple lock is not the concept but the application which leads to an unintended ratcheting up of pensions relative to everything else in the long term.
    Cumulative pensions since the lock began should be linked to the higher of cumulative prices and cumulative earnings,and never fall in an individual year. Basing the inrease on the highest in each individual year willi inevitably lead to pensions outpacing earnings significantly in times of volatility. If the triple lock was maintained for long enough in its current form then a pensioner would earn more than the average wage.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,546
    eek said:

    To whom - come election day who would your typical London Labour voter vote for - they ain't going to vote for Bozo...
    To the LDs obvs
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,137

    Poor Politics from Starmer banning Shadow Ministers and PPS's from RMT picket lines.

    Labour are either on the side of the workers or the bosses (Tory Govt) in this Trade dispute.

    If its not the former whats the point of Labour

    Voters who are siding with the bosses are predominantly not going to vote Labour anyway.

    Labour voters who are with the workers will see SKS as a weak boring sit on the fence merchant* and see Labour as abandoning workers even more.

    *Which of course he is.

    Why should Starmer involve himself in a fist-fight that doesn't directly concern him?

    He may be useless, but in this case he is better off letting Shapps and the RMT beat lumps out of each other.

    Only HYUFD and the Daily Mail believe this strike, which will be unpopular with the travelling public, is the work of the Labour party, so there is no point in reinforcing that lie.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,096

    I think you're vastly overestimating the degree to which Remainers want to hand to Boris on a plate the opportunity to reignite the Brexit wars.
    Yes, I think a removal of the red tape at the Irish Sea and Channel through closer trade and regulatory alignment is the plan for the next GE. EU/EEA Rejoining is for a bit further down the line.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    edited June 2022
    eek said:

    To whom - come election day who would your typical London Labour voter vote for - they ain't going to vote for Bozo...
    In some city Remain seats like Cambridge, Hornsey and Wood Green, Islington, Bristol West, Manchester Withington etc the Tories were 3rd in 2019 behind Labour and the LDs or Greens. Though the LDs and Greens would give Starmer confidence and supply anyway
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687
    edited June 2022

    As I said, if you want to shift large volumes of the same good along the same route, then absolutely rail can be great. There's a time and a place for rail.

    But the problem is, post-coal, that its not as much, and not as often. Whereas roads, especially in the age of goods getting more complicated and smaller, are stretched well past their capacity.

    Adding more rail routes is tinkering at the edges of freight capacity, because most freight doesn't want to be moved by rail. Adding more motorways would be truly transformative.
    Not really - most freight is distributed via a hub and spoke system. Delivery to the hubs can be done via rail with lorries doing the last x miles...

    And unless I'm missing something the one problem that still hasn't been solved in the post carbon future is fuelling of Lorries...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    HYUFD said:

    Looks like Theresa May might have the last laugh after all. If Starmer wins the next general election Brexit will end up looking much like her ditched deal rather than Boris' even harder line deal or the EEA deal Remainers wanted
    A CU won’t be possible without lots of work to unlock various other trade deals, and a lot of EU good will whilst the opposition is saying “we’d immediately reverse it”. It won’t happen.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,775
    Leon said:

    I’m not talking about rejoining the EU!

    We are talking about what Starmer said. Ruling out the SM and CU
    Depends on what kind of sophistry we want to employ:
    I cannot see how we rejoin the EEA. Via EFTA? Do they want us? But we could create a bilateral trading agreement with the EEA which encompasses the UK within it so that we can enjoy the same economic benefits as NI has.
    I cannot see how we rejoin the ECU. But we can create *a* customs union agreement with the ECU which draws us into it.

    People should be used to this by now. We had to leave the EU to stop Turks coming here via their non-membership of the EU. But could then have *a* ECU deal like non-EU member Turkey once we left.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785

    Poor Politics from Starmer banning Shadow Ministers and PPS's from RMT picket lines.

    Labour are either on the side of the workers or the bosses (Tory Govt) in this Trade dispute.

    If its not the former whats the point of Labour

    Voters who are siding with the bosses are predominantly not going to vote Labour anyway.

    Labour voters who are with the workers will see SKS as a weak boring sit on the fence merchant* and see Labour as abandoning workers even more.

    *Which of course he is.

    Sensible politics. Only idiots, Marxists and closet Marxists support this strike. Everyone is going to have to accept a drop in living standards for the time being, so why should certain segments of the population that are prepared to bully the rest of the population be immune?. Strikes are not going to help anyone, although I am sure Vladimir will be delighted his apologist union bosses are causing disruption in the UK .
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,498
    edited June 2022

    Something very strange and troubling seems to have happened in 2016 according to this FT graph:

    image

    Have they demonstrated that the assumed trend happened everywhere else? Otherwise not really relevant.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,001

    Hypocrite.

    Vast majority of Pensioners are much better off than the working population certainly in Capital Terms

    BigG "I want workers to take a 5% real terms pay cut but not people my age"
    How many of these workers are on the state equivalent annual wage of £9,300
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    As I said, if you want to shift large volumes of the same good along the same route, then absolutely rail can be great. There's a time and a place for rail.

    But the problem is, post-coal, that its not as much, and not as often. Whereas roads, especially in the age of goods getting more complicated and smaller, are stretched well past their capacity.

    Adding more rail routes is tinkering at the edges of freight capacity, because most freight doesn't want to be moved by rail. Adding more motorways would be truly transformative.
    There’s room for both, but getting goods traffic off roads and onto trains can be useful in reducing overall traffic on the motorways.

    For example, if containers landed at Southampton and Felixstowe could be moved by rail to a terminal somewhere around, say, East Midlands Airport, then picked up by lorry for local delivery, this would get thousands of lorries off the road network.

    This is the sort of thing enabled by HS2, as it creates more paths for slower freight trains by getting faster passenger trains off the existing main lines.

    You are right on your point about motorways being neglected though, there needs to be investment in renewing and widening, with particular attention to bottlenecks in the system.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687
    HYUFD said:

    In some city Remain seats like Cambridge, Hornsey and Wood Green, Islington, Bristol West etc the Tories were 3rd in 2019 behind Labour and the LDs or Greens
    And in a hung Parliament were the Greens to win those constituencies exactly who are they going to support.

    It isn't Bozo....
  • eek said:

    Not really - most freight is distributed via a hub and spoke system. Delivery to the hubs can be done via rail with lorries doing the last x miles...

    And unless I'm missing something the one problem that still hasn't been solved in the post carbon future is fuelling of Lorries...
    England is not a large country, for much of the country all the trade being done is the last x miles.

    If the capacity demand for freight is there, why is freight rail falling as a share of freight, rather than rising? Why are motorways the ones stretched to triple the capacity they were designed for?

    If motorways were idle and empty then sure, no reason to invest in more, but its just not the case.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    Leon said:

    It seems like a strategic error from Starmer (unless he is lying - highly possible)

    He may or may not bring back the Red Wall but he is giving up on all of Remainia

    There is a huge opportunity here for the Lib Dems. For millions of people Brexit is still THE issue especially FoM. Remainers want it back
    It might look like a tactical error, but strategic error it is not. This may well hand more votes to the LDs in the areas Labour has no chance in. LDs are his natural coalition partners. It is strategically very sensible
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    Sensible politics. Only idiots, Marxists and closet Marxists support this strike. Everyone is going to have to accept a drop in living standards for the time being, so why should certain segments of the population that are prepared to bully the rest of the population be immune?. Strikes are not going to help anyone, although I am sure Vladimir will be delighted his apologist union bosses are causing disruption in the UK .
    I don’t “support the strikes” but I support the right to strike. Surely we all must do that, otherwise let’s just ban unions. My overriding view on rail sector unions is “I wish mine was that effective at looking after me”.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    HYUFD said:

    Given the government is going to tear up restrictions on City bonuses I doubt most voters will be too bothered about a generous rise in the state pension

    https://inews.co.uk/news/no-10-planning-tear-up-restrictions-city-bosses-pay-cost-of-living-crisis-1696695
    Another representation of the total failure of the EU to try and take business away from the City. That change alone should be worth a billion or two in income tax and employer NI.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,498
    MattW said:

    Have we done this wee policy from Spain. Pee in the sea and be fined. Enforcement technique as yet unidentified.

    https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/957130/swimmers-face-ps645-fine-for-peeing-in-the-sea

    Don't go to Weego.

    I'd have thought they need this more on the Mediterranean coast.

    Reflecting on this the best solution to the problem is probably to introduce Candiru, if available in a salt water version.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Agency rail workers will be stopped at picket lines and asked not to cross.

    RMT union's General Secretary Mick Lynch got a little flustered explaining why...

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1539166310227116034

    Mick Lynch is good value. Oddest thing here is Burley posting her own car crash and projecting the flusteredness on to him.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,292
    edited June 2022
    Sandpit said:

    There’s room for both, but getting goods traffic off roads and onto trains can be useful in reducing overall traffic on the motorways.

    For example, if containers landed at Southampton and Felixstowe could be moved by rail to a terminal somewhere around, say, East Midlands Airport, then picked up by lorry for local delivery, this would get thousands of lorries off the road network.

    This is the sort of thing enabled by HS2, as it creates more paths for slower freight trains by getting faster passenger trains off the existing main lines.

    You are right on your point about motorways being neglected though, there needs to be investment in renewing and widening, with particular attention to bottlenecks in the system.
    You're absolutely right that thousands of lorries could be dealt with that way.

    But when stretches of motorway are dealing with hundreds of thousands of vehicles per day, that is pissing in the wind.

    We need both. We should be investing in capacity for motorways, which are well past capacity and more capacity is needed - and investing in capacity in rail where it is needed. Capacity in rail is not a magical fix for capacity in roads, it won't even make a dent in the roads congestion.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,785
    biggles said:

    I don’t “support the strikes” but I support the right to strike. Surely we all must do that, otherwise let’s just ban unions. My overriding view on rail sector unions is “I wish mine was that effective at looking after me”.
    I support the right to strike, but that doesn't mean one should not criticise them when they happen. The big problem with many unions is that they are still run by dinosaurs who think that their primary purpose is to show their machismo. They are still largely dominated by the far left, and they need to be called out for what they are.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687

    England is not a large country, for much of the country all the trade being done is the last x miles.

    If the capacity demand for freight is there, why is freight rail falling as a share of freight, rather than rising? Why are motorways the ones stretched to triple the capacity they were designed for?

    If motorways were idle and empty then sure, no reason to invest in more, but its just not the case.
    The capacity isn't there at the moment - Moving the fast trains to HS2 is how the capacity is added to the WCML...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    Leon said:

    But this could lose Labour a bunch of seats in big cities. Especially london
    Yes but LD MPs in Remain seats would still back Starmer over Johnson as PM. Tory MPs in redwall seats wouldn't.

    This policy confirms Starmer has given up on a Labour majority, he is just focused on becoming PM in a hung parliament with LD as well as Labour support
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,432
    .
    ping said:

    Off topic

    Excellent podcast from Bari Weiss, just released;

    “Is crypto over? A debate”

    Well worth an hour or so of your time, imo.

    https://www.honestlypod.com/podcast/episode/247cc6c3/is-crypto-over-a-debate

    Can't you just tell us 'yes' or 'no' ?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,265
    Good service on the new section of the Elizabeth Line between Paddington and Abbey Wood.

    https://tfl.gov.uk/tube-dlr-overground/status/#line-elizabeth
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    I support the right to strike, but that doesn't mean one should not criticise them when they happen. The big problem with many unions is that they are still run by dinosaurs who think that their primary purpose is to show their machismo. They are still largely dominated by the far left, and they need to be called out for what they are.
    Perhaps. But the train unions seem to be have mostly succeeded in looking after their members’ interests, which is their job. Not necessarily the same thing as the national interest, but they are paid by the members. In that sense, they are objectively better than many peers.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,655
    IshmaelZ said:

    I have been a Tory supporter since I was a child. My parents were as Tory as they come, our home hosted MP surgeries. Our front room was often piled high with election literature and envelopes. That is my dad in the photo.

    https://twitter.com/shaldonangler/status/1538787868662964224

    Thread/hymn of phatboi hate from a lifelong tory

    John Major is your Dad?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,420
    biggles said:

    A CU won’t be possible without lots of work to unlock various other trade deals, and a lot of EU good will whilst the opposition is saying “we’d immediately reverse it”. It won’t happen.
    It would also come at an eye-wateringly expensive annual cost. Not much less than full EU membership would be my guess.
  • IshmaelZ said:

    Agency rail workers will be stopped at picket lines and asked not to cross.

    RMT union's General Secretary Mick Lynch got a little flustered explaining why...

    https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1539166310227116034

    Mick Lynch is good value. Oddest thing here is Burley posting her own car crash and projecting the flusteredness on to him.

    Good for someone on calling Kay Burley out on her bullshit! He turned the questions on her, and called out her questions as ridiculous, good for him.

    I may not like the unions, but he was utterly calm and composed the entire time.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    I've been out, did we do this?
    Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-)
    CON: 26% (-)
    PC: 16% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-)

    via @YouGov, 12 - 16 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Mar
    https://t.co/DIILimlvOa
  • eek said:

    The capacity isn't there at the moment - Moving the fast trains to HS2 is how the capacity is added to the WCML...
    The capacity was there in the past, and yet the share of freight being moved by rail has gone consistently down, and down, and down as we eliminated coal.

    It is the road network which is bursting to capacity at hundreds of thousands of vehicles per day per stretch, not hundreds or thousands of them.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    John Major is your Dad?
    No for two reasons, the dad is the other one and that is the text of someone elses tweet
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    Ken Clarke on WATO.
    Predicts recession. Doesn't buy the temporary inflation line.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    I've been out, did we do this?
    Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-)
    CON: 26% (-)
    PC: 16% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-)

    via @YouGov, 12 - 16 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Mar
    https://t.co/DIILimlvOa

    Labour failing to make further ground, Con falling back from 2019 in line with national picture
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    I've been out, did we do this?
    Welsh Westminster voting intention:

    LAB: 41% (-)
    CON: 26% (-)
    PC: 16% (+3)
    LDEM: 7% (-)

    via @YouGov, 12 - 16 Jun
    Chgs. w/ Mar
    https://t.co/DIILimlvOa

    The 10% “other” seems noteworthy. How much Reform/UKIP/abolish the assembly?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    I think you're vastly overestimating the degree to which Remainers want to hand to Boris on a plate the opportunity to reignite the Brexit wars.
    Indeed. Leon pontificating on the views of 'Remainers' align neatly with Leon pontificating about France. He is largely ignorant of both.

    For what it's worth, I only ever see 'Remainers' and 'Leavers' on PB – most of the country has long since moved on, since Brexit divided many if not most families and was therefore a painful episode that millions want to forget.

    As for FOM, I don't see it retuning in the medium term. What might happen is a more liberal visa system to help fill acute labour shortages in London and its ilk, which would be up to the UK government and would not require EEA membership.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,672

    Its definitely true.

    Links to the Parliamentary answer to the question of Triple Lock restoration.

    I get the Pension next year but think its a disgrace its going up more than triple the rate being offered by HMG to railworkers nurses teachers and many others.

    My suggestion of linking Pensions to Public Sector Pay backdated to 2010 would result in a 17% cut rather than a 10% rise
    Yes - also, although it's a populist gesture, I think (and argued when in Parliament) that MP pay should bear a fixed relationship to average incomes (could be double or even triple, but fixed). That way, if things go splendidly, they share in the bounty, and if they vote for a squeeze, they share in the squeeze.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    Also points out that after about a week anger with Unions turns on to the government for doing bugger all about it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,432
    biggles said:

    Would want a longer time series and the equivalents for our rivals before I concluded anything.
    Still somewhat disturbing given the super capital allowances Sunak brought in to give business investment a shot of adrenaline.

    It just hasn't had much effect, and it ought to have done.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687

    The capacity was there in the past, and yet the share of freight being moved by rail has gone consistently down, and down, and down as we eliminated coal.

    It is the road network which is bursting to capacity at hundreds of thousands of vehicles per day per stretch, not hundreds or thousands of them.
    You may not have noticed this but train passenger numbers doubled from 2000 to 2019 - and that was done by adding more passenger trains to the network.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,775

    You're absolutely right that thousands of lorries could be dealt with that way.

    But when stretches of motorway are dealing with hundreds of thousands of vehicles per day, that is pissing in the wind.

    We need both. We should be investing in capacity for motorways, which are well past capacity and more capacity is needed - and investing in capacity in rail where it is needed. Capacity in rail is not a magical fix for capacity in roads, it won't even make a dent in the roads congestion.
    It really could. Some of the obvious gaps in things like electrified lines would transform how we can transport stuff around the country. Plenty of new intermodal distribution hubs have been set up but no incentives to get companies located there to move goods by rail.

    Similarly we can shift in bulk goods for cities like London from an out of town hub, unload them at Euston etc overnight and deliver in electric vans. Remove both big trucks and the plague of diesel vans from the roads.

    And absolutely, build more roads as well. Start by completing the obvious half-built and unfinished schemes so that the benefits the part-built bits were supposed to deliver actually get delivered.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    Yes - also, although it's a populist gesture, I think (and argued when in Parliament) that MP pay should bear a fixed relationship to average incomes (could be double or even triple, but fixed). That way, if things go splendidly, they share in the bounty, and if they vote for a squeeze, they share in the squeeze.
    I rather like the Yes Minister wheeze of fixing then to a civil service pay band. Could be teachers/NHS etc. but makes them “feel” a squeeze quite directly.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,420
    So lets say the LibDems win T&H - what changes? Surely not the 22's rules?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    biggles said:

    The 10% “other” seems noteworthy. How much Reform/UKIP/abolish the assembly?
    No tables yet but Reform and Green i'd guess, residual kipperism strong in Wales but not actual kippers. Abolish, Gwlad and UKIP might get 1 or 2 between them, reform and green 4 each?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    biggles said:

    I rather like the Yes Minister wheeze of fixing then to a civil service pay band. Could be teachers/NHS etc. but makes them “feel” a squeeze quite directly.
    Good idea, MPs are public sector workers after all, not private sector
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    Nigelb said:

    Still somewhat disturbing given the super capital allowances Sunak brought in to give business investment a shot of adrenaline.

    It just hasn't had much effect, and it ought to have done.
    Irrespective of leave/remain and any Brexit impact in there, I think this links to our productive issues. Long term investment has always been our weakness and I think we need to do something fundamental around corporate governance and shareholder incentives.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    How many of these workers are on the state equivalent annual wage of £9,300

    How many of these workers are on the state equivalent annual wage of £9,300
    Not relevant they have many more costs associated with employment.

    After housing costs on average they will be much poorer than most Pensioners IMO
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,292
    edited June 2022
    eek said:

    You may not have noticed this but train passenger numbers doubled from 2000 to 2019 - and that was done by adding more passenger trains to the network.
    I have noticed, which was a pretty inconsequential dent in overall passenger traffic, since over 80% of overall passenger traffic remains via road and not rail. You might also notice the population rose in that time as well.

    Meanwhile what happened to motorway traffic in the same time? It went up in both freight and passengers, while the rails doubled in one yet halved in the other.

    The simple reality is that roads are a far more useful investment, yet are neglected for purely ideological rather than economic reasons. If you're looking at capacity, then instead of a new WCML I'd be looking at a new M6 and M1 etc as alternatives to the existing ones, with different routes and that would double capacity for both freight and passengers by road which is the overwhelming proportion of both freight and passengers moved in this country.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2022

    But he *hasn't* done that. All of the franchises still exist. They are all still operating. The difference is that (as an example) instead of Arriva - a private company - running the Northern Trains franchise, it is now run by OLR Rail - a consortium of private companies.

    What GBR is proposed to do is to abolish the entire franchising system. But hasn't yet done so. And no progress is being made along the journey where that will actually happen. Instead we have the absolute worst set-up of all. All of the costs of the franchised* railway system with all of the anti-benefits of clueless bean counters in the DfT dictating every last detail and usually doing the opposite of what was needed.

    *franchised, not privatised. Passenger railway operations were never privatised.
    GBR doesn't launch until next year – so yes the franchises are still in place but won't be in 2023 – as was the plan from the start. Abolition doesn't necessarily mean 'abolition with immediate effect'.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    Ken Clarke also says austerity lasted too long.
    And points out he's been personally given £1100 in cost of living grants.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    The polling from Wales and nationally suggests partygate is now fully baked in. A by election hammering might lead to a temporary further dip/LD booster
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    HYUFD said:

    Good idea, MPs are public sector workers after all, not private sector
    The other thing I’ve wondered about in the past is giving them a larger staff allowance to manage constituency work, but then cutting salaries and positively encouraging second jobs to inform their life experience. Parliament would need to sit less often, but the quality of what we got might improve.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    North Shropshire was a 23k con Maj, almost entirely before partygate. Honiton is 24k. Why is there any doubt it goes lib dem on Thursday?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    dixiedean said:

    Ken Clarke also says austerity lasted too long.
    And points out he's been personally given £1100 in cost of living grants.

    That’s a lot of cigars and whisky.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So lets say the LibDems win T&H - what changes? Surely not the 22's rules?

    Nothing. 48 bad hours for the Tories and then back to strikes and CoL issues
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Can't you just tell us 'yes' or 'no' ?
    I guess the answer is 'no', for as long as there are grifters and marks willing to part with their cash. There *is* a kernel of truthfulness and utility to cryptocurrency, but that makes it all the more appealing as a gimmick for the con artists.

    NFTs seem to be running their course though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,775

    GBR doesn't launch until next year – so yes the franchises are still in place but won't be in 2023 – as was the plan from the start. Abolition doesn't necessarily mean 'abolition with immediate effect'.
    Sadly that timetable - which was itself a slippage - will only slip back further. Being reported in the industry how nothing substantial is being done to actually turn GBR into an organisation with a structure which will deliver what it says on the tin.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,697
    The rebound in gross fixed capital formation looks more positive.

    image
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    North Shropshire was a 23k con Maj, almost entirely before partygate. Honiton is 24k. Why is there any doubt it goes lib dem on Thursday?

    Because Lib Dems love a 'look how awesome we little guys are' David vs Goliath bullshit story so they make up crap about it being close and then a magical tidal wave of support over the last 48 hours as the little people flock to them and blue wall orange hammer miracles spontaneously occur nationwide.
    Having said that, North Salop was cos of out and out corruption , this is just a sad old boy having a tug at some boobies
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Sensible politics. Only idiots, Marxists and closet Marxists support this strike.
    Have you seen a Poll?

    Even GB News reporter on the ground had to admit most people were sympathetic

    I see at least one idiot opposes the strike and thinks that the 89% of railway workers are Marxists. or closet Marxists.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    edited June 2022

    Sadly that timetable - which was itself a slippage - will only slip back further. Being reported in the industry how nothing substantial is being done to actually turn GBR into an organisation with a structure which will deliver what it says on the tin.
    It might slip but it literally says "from 2023" in the strategy document!

    Don't get me wrong, I have no faith in this government to deliver it properly (or anything properly – they are incompetent). But, it's at least a good idea that will (eventually) rid us of franchising – an international embarrassment.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    biggles said:

    The other thing I’ve wondered about in the past is giving them a larger staff allowance to manage constituency work, but then cutting salaries and positively encouraging second jobs to inform their life experience. Parliament would need to sit less often, but the quality of what we got might improve.
    That would be good, if the MPs’ second jobs were unrelated to their role as MPs.

    The problem is that so many MPs now are ‘Political Professionals”, who went straight from university into politics and have never had a job in the real world. They’d end up working in London as lobbyists or advisors on huge salaries, rather than get more of an understanding of their constituents. Just look at the jobs done now by former MPs.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,775

    I have noticed, which was a pretty inconsequential dent in overall passenger traffic, since over 80% of overall passenger traffic remains via road and not rail. You might also notice the population rose in that time as well.

    Meanwhile what happened to motorway traffic in the same time? It went up in both freight and passengers, while the rails doubled in one yet halved in the other.

    The simple reality is that roads are a far more useful investment, yet are neglected for purely ideological rather than economic reasons. If you're looking at capacity, then instead of a new WCML I'd be looking at a new M6 and M1 etc as alternatives to the existing ones, with different routes and that would double capacity for both freight and passengers by road which is the overwhelming proportion of both freight and passengers moved in this country.
    You can't say they are neglected for ideological reasons. An awful lot of money is spent on upgrades rather than new routes. There is no political appetite to build a new motorway. Up here we benefitted from the A90 Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route. Cambridgeshire and the Midlands benefitted from the A14 Huntingdon bypass. Both built as latest spec motorways (which no longer need hard shoulders) but have green signs and an A-number because motorways are bad.

    Worse still is how rare these new not-motorways are. Instead of new they spend £bonkers squeezing narrow lanes onto existing motorway carriageways. Huge cost, huge disruption, limited benefit. What we need are replacement routes for these. Build the M31 to relieve the Heathrow quadrant of the M25. Build the M64 to relieve the West Midlands. etc etc
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    Checking in to say the government are wankers and don't know how to run the country

    Emergency legislation against strikers -
    1. Strike days must be consecutive, none of this five days of disruption for three days of strikes.
    2. Strike pay loss to be calculated as 1/232 not 1/365. Also reduce employer pension contributions by 1/232.
    3. Make incentivising strikes with pay over and above lost income illegal.
    4. Accelerate automation of key infrastructure and dilute the pool of eligible workers by simplifying the remaining jobs.

    1-3 can be done immediately with primary legislation, if that means the whole public sector goes on strike then so be it, they are doing it anyway so it won't make any difference. If the wankers want to strike then make it hurt.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,627

    How many of these workers are on the state equivalent annual wage of £9,300
    One in four people over 65 live in a household with a total wealth of over 1 million pounds. https://fullfact.org/economy/millionaire-pensioners/
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,390
    MattW said:

    Have they demonstrated that the assumed trend happened everywhere else? Otherwise not really relevant.
    The UK business investment performance since the Brexit vote has been the weakest of the G7. Pre Brexit it was growing more strongly than most other G7 countries, having fallen the most after the GFC. The performance since 2016 been really bad, both compared to our peers and our prior performance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    On an unrelated topic I was trying to get a Pension estimate for next year

    You can only get this Online if you have a current UK Passport unless you live in NI where a driving licence will suffice.

    I waited for over an hour to speak to someone who is sending it out by post as cant send electonically.

    The Govt Gateway requires 2 forms of ID to do anything one can be a P60 the other has to be a current passport for everyone in England Scotland and Wales.

    Madness
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    MaxPB said:

    Checking in to say the government are wankers and don't know how to run the country

    Emergency legislation against strikers -
    1. Strike days must be consecutive, none of this five days of disruption for three days of strikes.
    2. Strike pay loss to be calculated as 1/232 not 1/365. Also reduce employer pension contributions by 1/232.
    3. Make incentivising strikes with pay over and above lost income illegal.
    4. Accelerate automation of key infrastructure and dilute the pool of eligible workers by simplifying the remaining jobs.

    1-3 can be done immediately with primary legislation, if that means the whole public sector goes on strike then so be it, they are doing it anyway so it won't make any difference. If the wankers want to strike then make it hurt.

    2 would muck around with lots of other pay definitions in law.

    3 is not a thing you could legislate for. How can you stop one person/organisation giving another cash?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    Have you seen a Poll?

    Even GB News reporter on the ground had to admit most people were sympathetic

    I see at least one idiot opposes the strike and thinks that the 89% of railway workers are Marxists. or closet Marxists.

    35 in support 49 against per YouGov, however Strongly support 12 vs Strongly oppose 26.
    Marginal plurality against the strikes, 2 to 1 with strong opinion against.
    Feelings very split
  • If the WCML is at capacity then a new line may make sense.

    The M1 and M6 absolutely are at capacity, and I believe carry an order of magnitude more than the WCML. So a new M1 and M6 absolutely ought to make sense, using the same logic.

    I wonder how much a new M1 and M6 would cost, versus HS2. And what the capacity of the existing and a new M1 and M6 (supplementing the existing M1 and M6, albeit probably on a somewhat different route) would be versus the capacity of HS2/WCML.

    Why should we build a new HS2 to relieve pressure on the WCML, but not build a new M1 or M6? And I don't mean the M6 Toll, a tiny little road, I mean full thing, from the South to past Preston at least, where the capacity is regularly past what it was built for already. If not all the way to Scotland.

    And like was said about HS2, if you're building a new line, may as well build it to best modern standards. So a new M1 and M6 could be built with modern digital standards from the start, safety investment for lay-bys etc and have 4 or 5 lanes each way from the start for the entire route. Supplementing of course the existing motorway network, because new roads all the way.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,032
    BoZO terrified "his" war will end...

    EXC: Boris Johnson is concerned Zelensky is being pressured into agreeing a “s*****” peace deal with Russia because allies are getting tired of war

    He will push Germany, France + others to strengthen support at G7 / Nato talks next week. Source tells me a “big fight” is looming

    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1539229404882157570
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    dixiedean said:

    Ken Clarke also says austerity lasted too long.
    And points out he's been personally given £1100 in cost of living grants.

    KC is right about a lot of things.

    He was a much better Health Secretary than Alun Milburn
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687
    edited June 2022

    On an unrelated topic I was trying to get a Pension estimate for next year

    You can only get this Online if you have a current UK Passport unless you live in NI where a driving licence will suffice.

    I waited for over an hour to speak to someone who is sending it out by post as cant send electonically.

    The Govt Gateway requires 2 forms of ID to do anything one can be a P60 the other has to be a current passport for everyone in England Scotland and Wales.

    Madness

    Because we don't have ID cards passports have become the defacto form of proof of residency / right to work.

    As I pointed out earlier this week that means come October if you haven't got a passport there will be whole sectors of work where people without passports just won't be able to get work because company's will insist on 3rd party online right to work checks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    biggles said:

    2 would muck around with lots of other pay definitions in law.

    3 is not a thing you could legislate for. How can you stop one person/organisation giving another cash?
    That excuse for point 2 is why we have this idiotic disconnect and I'm not sure it would anyway, it's a one line change from 1/365 to 1/232.

    3. Of course you can, in the UK primary legislation rules all.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,281
    HYUFD said:

    Yes but LD MPs in Remain seats would still back Starmer over Johnson as PM. Tory MPs in redwall seats wouldn't.

    This policy confirms Starmer has given up on a Labour majority, he is just focused on becoming PM in a hung parliament with LD as well as Labour support
    Though without Scotland, that was always pretty likely.

    As for the Eurostuff, it was always likely that 2024-9 was going to be about (try to) "make Brexit work by diluting it a bit". And then a bit more and a bit more.

    I know it's awfully bad manners for the government to try to launch another Brexit war and the rest of us not turn up, but sometimes the best thing to do is sit and wait.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750

    If the WCML is at capacity then a new line may make sense.

    The M1 and M6 absolutely are at capacity, and I believe carry an order of magnitude more than the WCML. So a new M1 and M6 absolutely ought to make sense, using the same logic.

    I wonder how much a new M1 and M6 would cost, versus HS2. And what the capacity of the existing and a new M1 and M6 (supplementing the existing M1 and M6, albeit probably on a somewhat different route) would be versus the capacity of HS2/WCML.

    Why should we build a new HS2 to relieve pressure on the WCML, but not build a new M1 or M6? And I don't mean the M6 Toll, a tiny little road, I mean full thing, from the South to past Preston at least, where the capacity is regularly past what it was built for already. If not all the way to Scotland.

    And like was said about HS2, if you're building a new line, may as well build it to best modern standards. So a new M1 and M6 could be built with modern digital standards from the start, safety investment for lay-bys etc and have 4 or 5 lanes each way from the start for the entire route. Supplementing of course the existing motorway network, because new roads all the way.

    Good luck getting that Bill through Parliament.

    More seriously, as we move to EVs I do think it is true that building roads will be less controversial.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,687
    MaxPB said:

    Checking in to say the government are wankers and don't know how to run the country

    Emergency legislation against strikers -
    1. Strike days must be consecutive, none of this five days of disruption for three days of strikes.
    2. Strike pay loss to be calculated as 1/232 not 1/365. Also reduce employer pension contributions by 1/232.
    3. Make incentivising strikes with pay over and above lost income illegal.
    4. Accelerate automation of key infrastructure and dilute the pool of eligible workers by simplifying the remaining jobs.

    1-3 can be done immediately with primary legislation, if that means the whole public sector goes on strike then so be it, they are doing it anyway so it won't make any difference. If the wankers want to strike then make it hurt.

    How does 4 work? I will point out https://www.londonreconnections.com/2021/the-political-myth-of-the-driverless-tube-train/ and the fact that a lot of the public sector is well ahead of elsewhere on robotic process and other automation...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    edited June 2022
    MaxPB said:

    That excuse for point 2 is why we have this idiotic disconnect and I'm not sure it would anyway, it's a one line change from 1/365 to 1/232.

    3. Of course you can, in the UK primary legislation rules all.
    You’re showing your ignorance. Go on then - how would you draft 3 without preventing anyone other than state sanctioned entities transferring cash to each other? It’s not possible.

    Edit - not possible in an enforceable way.
  • You can't say they are neglected for ideological reasons. An awful lot of money is spent on upgrades rather than new routes. There is no political appetite to build a new motorway. Up here we benefitted from the A90 Aberdeen Western Peripheral Route. Cambridgeshire and the Midlands benefitted from the A14 Huntingdon bypass. Both built as latest spec motorways (which no longer need hard shoulders) but have green signs and an A-number because motorways are bad.

    Worse still is how rare these new not-motorways are. Instead of new they spend £bonkers squeezing narrow lanes onto existing motorway carriageways. Huge cost, huge disruption, limited benefit. What we need are replacement routes for these. Build the M31 to relieve the Heathrow quadrant of the M25. Build the M64 to relieve the West Midlands. etc etc
    I agree with you. Stop pissing about trying to squeeze another bit onto existing road, build a new one. Because capacity has been breached well past where it was.

    eek and others who love HS2 constantly bang on about capacity, but capacity is the issue with motorways and then some. So where are the new lines of motorways? Not widenings, not alternatives, not small quadrants. Entire full routes, as are proposed with HS2.

    New motorways ought to be built all the way from London to Newcastle in the East, and Preston or similar in the West, then onto Scotland. And similar new motorways wherever needed, I've suggested before an "M580" which would remove a lot of congestion from the M62.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    Sandpit said:

    That would be good, if the MPs’ second jobs were unrelated to their role as MPs.

    The problem is that so many MPs now are ‘Political Professionals”, who went straight from university into politics and have never had a job in the real world. They’d end up working in London as lobbyists or advisors on huge salaries, rather than get more of an understanding of their constituents. Just look at the jobs done now by former MPs.
    Indeed, plenty of MPs now went from school to study politics/PPE at university, then worked for a Minister or MP as a SPAD or researcher, or for party HQ or a think tank or trade union, then got a parliamentary seat. Politics is all they know
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,794
    biggles said:

    You’re showing your ignorance. Go on then - how would you draft 3 without preventing anyone other than state sanctioned entities transferring cash to each other? It’s not possible.
    "Strike pay must not exceed lost salaried income" it's really not that difficult.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    eek said:

    How does 4 work? I will point out https://www.londonreconnections.com/2021/the-political-myth-of-the-driverless-tube-train/ and the fact that a lot of the public sector is well ahead of elsewhere on robotic process and other automation...
    It means he doesn’t understand the safety challenges of what he’s written.
  • biggles said:

    Good luck getting that Bill through Parliament.

    More seriously, as we move to EVs I do think it is true that building roads will be less controversial.
    It will probably be as difficult to get through Parliament as HS2 was - but it would add far more capacity, do far more for the economy, and relieve far more congestion.

    The benefits for a new M1 and new M6 would massively outstrip any benefits for increased capacity HS2 brings. I have absolutely no idea how much it would cost, but I imagine it would be comparable to HS2.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,898
    eek said:

    Because we don't have ID cards passports have become the defacto form of proof of residency / right to work.

    As I pointed out earlier this week that means come October if you haven't got a passport there will be whole sectors of work where people without passports just won't be able to get work because company's will insist on 3rd party online right to work checks.
    We don't have ID cards.
    So are making passports de facto compulsory.
    Therefore we will continue to not have ID cards.
    Huzzah!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,835
    edited June 2022

    35 in support 49 against per YouGov, however Strongly support 12 vs Strongly oppose 26.
    Marginal plurality against the strikes, 2 to 1 with strong opinion against.
    Feelings very split
    Split on party lines, 74% of Conservative voters oppose the strikes, 59% of Labour voters back the strikes.

    LD voters marginally opposed, 49% against to 38% for

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/economy/survey-results/daily/2022/06/08/d6f7e/3
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    eek said:

    Because we don't have ID cards passports have become the defacto form of proof of residency / right to work.

    As I pointed out earlier this week that means come October if you haven't got a passport there will be whole sectors of work where people without passports just won't be able to get work because company's will insist on 3rd party online right to work checks.
    I was told yesterday HMRC have "now been granted access to the driving license database and will be able to use that as a Government Gateway validation soon"

    When i aske them to define soon she said hopefully by October.

    Which October i didnt ask foolishly
  • biggles said:

    You’re showing your ignorance. Go on then - how would you draft 3 without preventing anyone other than state sanctioned entities transferring cash to each other? It’s not possible.

    Edit - not possible in an enforceable way.
    There is already serious legislation about who can pay whom and for what, in order to prevent fraud, tax evasion etc
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,750
    edited June 2022
    MaxPB said:

    "Strike pay must not exceed lost salaried income" it's really not that difficult.
    You’re missing the point…

    They would get another chunk of cash as a random gift to make up the difference. You can’t stop one person or entity giving another cash easily in a free society. You’ve never had to think about drafting enforceable legislation or rules have you? Nothing to be ashamed of, you just need to understand it’s not trivial.
This discussion has been closed.