It will be close, but it looks like a clear, if not substantial No lead. Looks like Scots will give Yes a high enough total to ensure Devomax, but not so high they actually break-up the UK!
I would quite like a Yes vote.
My prediction is: 44.33% Yes on a 81.4% turnout.
And the knives out for poached Salmond.
How the fuck is 40%+ bad for Salmond or the SNP? People were predicted sub 30% when this process started.
Because it's binary, win or lose. It would appear he is going to be the loser.
It would appear that way but there are some of us tin-foil wearers who think Salmond only ever wanted devo max, which is roughly what he will get whether the vote is yes or no.
Just caught up with SNP-wreck-the-NHS-gate. A devastating development. If nothing else soft Yessers will be demoralised and won't bother turning out to vote. It has also shattered the SNP's raison d'être. They were carving out a niche in the all-politicians-are-not-the-same market. That's in tatters now that they're proposing slashes to the NHS budget that would have made Maggie blush!
To keep it in perspective; the current forecast for Leicestershire and Rutland (pop 950 000) is £300 million is needed to be saved over the next 5 years to balance the budget.
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
If Brown can convince the Labour supporters who recently deserted for the YES camp, I'd be happy to praise Gordon for clearing up his mess.
It is not Brown's mess. You could blame Thatcher, Blair or Cameron for actions that endangered the union, but hardly Brown. All the crucial decisions came before or after his time.
Do you really think that Brown didn't have a major hand in the construction of the devolution policy of the incoming New Labour government in 97? Of course he did.
The mess that Brown has had to clear up is the one created by the No campaign - run by Darling and Alexander.
The reason things are closer than anyone who wants to maintain the union would have liked is because the No campaign has been so awful.
I must say I'm not really happy whichever way this vote goes. If it's yes, our country is ripped in two and there is a huge risk of us plunging back into recession, if it's no, thanks to our spineless leaders there will be an even more inequitable constitutional settlement than at present, which will cause discontent to fester and probably lead to more animosity down the line.
The government has to kill this stone dead and convene a UK-wide constitutional convention in the event of a no vote, so that all home nations can have a say in how they are governed and formulate a constitutional settlement that respects each and removes any unfairness.
I ignore anything quoting zerohedge, breitbart or rt as a source. Saves time.
The information equivalent of judging a book by its cover. Silly. Know the slant of the organisation, bear it in mind, and read the info. There are vital things you simply will not get from a 'credible' source these days.
Now that's not to say that GCHQ/MI5/MI6 are ballot-stuffing "proper" online polls, it's more likely they target voodoo polls of the sort carried by news websites, but they do have an interest in manipulating opinion polls.
So they can rig Celebrity Big Brother but can't spot a boatload of British jihadis on their way to the Middle East. What will iScot do for spies btw?
Yes campaign have done well despite the big problem of currency.
And that was a problem of their own making. If there's a No vote the sterling zone policy will be blamed for it. Clearly an iCurrency would have opened up major strategic advantages. This policy will NOT be carried into any subsequent referendum The only reason they've kind of got away with it is because many voters just see complaints about sterling zone as part of Project Fear - they are immune to No criticism. Almost everyone who is pro-independence in Scotland is for an iCurrency except for those under Salmond's influence..
Your predictions are crap, based on an election that hasn't even been called. It would be more accurate for me to venture that you will post the same sort of crap tomorrow night. The odds of this are much greater than any of your crap predictions.
Just caught up with SNP-wreck-the-NHS-gate. A devastating development. If nothing else soft Yessers will be demoralised and won't bother turning out to vote. It has also shattered the SNP's raison d'être. They were carving out a niche in the all-politicians-are-not-the-same market. That's in tatters now that they're proposing slashes to the NHS budget that would have made Maggie blush!
'SNP proposing to slash the NHS budget' - Ay, missed that this afternoon, got a link please?
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
If the LD fall bellow 5% (they aren't far away from 5% now).
The government has to kill this stone dead and convene a UK-wide constitutional convention in the event of a no vote, so that all home nations can have a say in how they are governed and formulate a constitutional settlement that respects each and removes any unfairness.
Of course, it won't. Depressingly.
This. And Farage proposing a Federal UK means he once again leads where Cameron is forced to follow. Assuming a no (which means Cameron gets to not be swiftly resigned), Cameron is still boiled alive by his backbenches.
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
If the LD fall bellow 5% (they aren't far away from 5% now).
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3 mins 33 per cent of Labour 2011 Holyrood voters say they will vote Yes -- an increase from 26 per cent last week @survation #indyref
I ignore anything quoting zerohedge, breitbart or rt as a source. Saves time.
The information equivalent of judging a book by its cover. Silly. Know the slant of the organisation, bear it in mind, and read the info. There are vital things you simply will not get from a 'credible' source these days.
No it is the information equivalent of judging a book by its author.
Gordon Smart @gordonsmart 35m I think it's time for @ScottishSun to have our say on the #indyref. Coming soon...
Best for them to go with Yes, surely? It's very close but NO has still led in the polls, so if the great masses of non-voters for example swing it for yes as they might, the Sun can claim to have been a major influence on the final stretch regardless of the truth of that.
Yeh! And Murdoch is looking for revenge on the UK establishment.
I still don't believe the methodologies are picking up former non-voters who are overwhelmingly Yes. The polling companies are nervous. There is open rebellion in Labour heartlands and a carnival atmosphere across the nation caused by Yes grassroots. You can hardly see a Yes poster anywhere. Everyone is talking about the referendum. Never seen democracy in action like this!
33 per cent of Labour voters say they will vote Yes -- an increase from 26 per cent last week @Survation #indyref
Ha, beaten to it. Thought Brownian motion wasn't bad though.
Problem with that rather nice pun is it doesn't quite work - Brownian motion is not directional (well, the scientific kind isn't). But a very fine try.
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
If the LD fall bellow 5% (they aren't far away from 5% now).
So that's a no then
For you, how low would the LD have to score on election night, for Clegg to probably lose his seat? 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% ,1% or 0%?
@MediaGuido: Scottish Sun chooses neither side: "We believe in the people of Scotland to make the right decision." http://t.co/nrVMKSkcbj
Just seen that the Sunil on Sunday "would prefer" the Scots to run their own affairs and "believes that the Tories will have a much greater chance of winning the next election in rUK if Scotland goes it alone".
Alex Salmond wasn't half testy in his interview with Adam Bolton earlier. For a few moment he was on the verge of a Gordon Brown-esque temper melt down, you could see his eyes.
Unless I've done my sums wrong in the latest Survation Poll the DNVs in the 2011 Scottish Election have gone from being 50/50 split to 71/29 split in favour of No.
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
If the LD fall bellow 5% (they aren't far away from 5% now).
So that's a no then
For you, how low would the LD have to score on election night, for Clegg to probably lose his seat? 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% ,1% or 0%?
National share of the vote will have very little bearing on the result in Sheffield Hallam
Gordon Smart @gordonsmart 35m I think it's time for @ScottishSun to have our say on the #indyref. Coming soon...
Best for them to go with Yes, surely? It's very close but NO has still led in the polls, so if the great masses of non-voters for example swing it for yes as they might, the Sun can claim to have been a major influence on the final stretch regardless of the truth of that.
Yeh! And Murdoch is looking for revenge on the UK establishment.
I still don't believe the methodologies are picking up former non-voters who are overwhelmingly Yes. The polling companies are nervous. There is open rebellion in Labour heartlands and a carnival atmosphere across the nation caused by Yes grassroots. You can hardly see a Yes poster anywhere. Everyone is talking about the referendum. Never seen democracy in action like this!
My prediction 52% Yes, 48% No.
In general 2011 DNVs are more likely to be No voters according to the polls.
@benrileysmith: Telegraph splash -- Alex Salmond personally pressurised St Andrews Uni head to tone down Yes vote concerns. #indyref http://t.co/n9a5Fd652e
Meanwhile, in normal politics... our @YouGov VI tonight is stunning. Greens just 1 point behind Libs now; LD 7%, GRN 6%.The 5th party soon?
The LD's have more to fall, their remaining vote is as solid as jelly. But I won't mention Sheffield Hallam and the possibility of Nick Clegg losing his seat.
Are you prepared to bet on Clegg losing Sheffield Hallam?
If the LD fall bellow 5% (they aren't far away from 5% now).
So that's a no then
For you, how low would the LD have to score on election night, for Clegg to probably lose his seat? 5%, 4%, 3%, 2% ,1% or 0%?
National share of the vote will have very little bearing on the result in Sheffield Hallam
If Hercule Poirot saw that answer, he would reply "Evasion!".
I was talking about possibilities, at which point of LD decline will Clegg's seat be at risk. So if the LD get no votes (0%) nationaly you still think it's possible that Clegg is going to win his own seat?
I hope people give credit where it is due. If NO prevails, it will have a lot to do with GORDON BROWN over the last weeek.
If Brown can convince the Labour supporters who recently deserted for the YES camp, I'd be happy to praise Gordon for clearing up his mess.
It is not Brown's mess. You could blame Thatcher, Blair or Cameron for actions that endangered the union, but hardly Brown. All the crucial decisions came before or after his time.
Do you really think that Brown didn't have a major hand in the construction of the devolution policy of the incoming New Labour government in 97? Of course he did.
The mess that Brown has had to clear up is the one created by the No campaign - run by Darling and Alexander.
The reason things are closer than anyone who wants to maintain the union would have liked is because the No campaign has been so awful.
Brown signed the Scottish Claim Of Right in 1988:
Indeed, many who consider themselves to be unionists have gone even further than this and have accepted the Scottish Claim of Right of 1988: the claim that it is “the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs”. As is well known, one of the most notable signatories of this declaration was Gordon Brown.
@Otto_English: The Sun's neutrality doesn't mean it's "bottled it". It thinks #No has won. Murdoch hates Westminster but doesn't want to back a loser.
This begs the question of what Murdoch will do in the run-up to next year's election if (IF) Labour look like they're going to win.
Easy question. He'll back UKIP.
That would certainly make sense, given that he backed Labour for most of the last twenty years and was a great fan and personal friend of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
There was apparently a Sky News reporter undercover in Dundee today who went out to "canvass" in a No T shirt. Needless to say he got dog's abuse and it was recorded to support the theme of the moment.
The BT bus was also vandalised today and this has been reported to the police. The Courier has a number of stories about farmers with BT signs in the fields having their telephone lines cut, threats to release livestock onto the Perth Dual Carriageway and with signs not just vandalised but set on fire.
The idiot fringe at the edge of the Yes campaign is out of control because not nearly enough effort has been made to control it. Trouble is being expected at polling stations and the counts. I hope not but tempers are starting to boil and people have had enough.
I promised last night that I would report back from the meeting tonight as to how those south of the border might help. If they can make arrangements with either BT, the tories or Labour locally great. If not then the best bet is that both Labour and the tories are running phone banks based in England to help GOTV and I suggest you get in contact with them.
@Otto_English: The Sun's neutrality doesn't mean it's "bottled it". It thinks #No has won. Murdoch hates Westminster but doesn't want to back a loser.
This begs the question of what Murdoch will do in the run-up to next year's election if (IF) Labour look like they're going to win.
Easy question. He'll back UKIP.
That would certainly make sense, given that he backed Labour for most of the last twenty years and was a great fan and personal friend of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Glad to see you agree with my view that he is opportunistic.
There was apparently a Sky News reporter undercover in Dundee today who went out to "canvass" in a No T shirt. Needless to say he got dog's abuse and it was recorded to support the theme of the moment.
The BT bus was also vandalised today and this has been reported to the police. The Courier has a number of stories about farmers with BT signs in the fields having their telephone lines cut, threats to release livestock onto the Perth Dual Carriageway and with signs not just vandalised but set on fire.
The idiot fringe at the edge of the Yes campaign is out of control because not nearly enough effort has been made to control it. Trouble is being expected at polling stations and the counts. I hope not but tempers are starting to boil and people have had enough.
I promised last night that I would report back from the meeting tonight as to how those south of the border might help. If they can make arrangements with either BT, the tories or Labour locally great. If not then the best bet is that both Labour and the tories are running phone banks based in England to help GOTV and I suggest you get in contact with them.
So YES is damaging private property and communications. Bodes well for the odds of a scottish civil war.
By the way, what is the point of criminal activity where the YES campaign can be described as a terrorist organisation by current anti-terror laws?
@Otto_English: The Sun's neutrality doesn't mean it's "bottled it". It thinks #No has won. Murdoch hates Westminster but doesn't want to back a loser.
This begs the question of what Murdoch will do in the run-up to next year's election if (IF) Labour look like they're going to win.
Easy question. He'll back UKIP.
That would certainly make sense, given that he backed Labour for most of the last twenty years and was a great fan and personal friend of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Glad to see you agree with my view that he is opportunistic.
Yes he saw his opportunity to back Labour for twenty years and seized it.
@Otto_English: The Sun's neutrality doesn't mean it's "bottled it". It thinks #No has won. Murdoch hates Westminster but doesn't want to back a loser.
This begs the question of what Murdoch will do in the run-up to next year's election if (IF) Labour look like they're going to win.
Easy question. He'll back UKIP.
That would certainly make sense, given that he backed Labour for most of the last twenty years and was a great fan and personal friend of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
Glad to see you agree with my view that he is opportunistic.
Yes he saw his opportunity to back Labour for twenty years and seized it.
Labour where ahead for 20 years, so who wouldn't? Tony Blair wasn't exactly a socialist.
There was apparently a Sky News reporter undercover in Dundee today who went out to "canvass" in a No T shirt. Needless to say he got dog's abuse and it was recorded to support the theme of the moment.
The BT bus was also vandalised today and this has been reported to the police. The Courier has a number of stories about farmers with BT signs in the fields having their telephone lines cut, threats to release livestock onto the Perth Dual Carriageway and with signs not just vandalised but set on fire.
The idiot fringe at the edge of the Yes campaign is out of control because not nearly enough effort has been made to control it. Trouble is being expected at polling stations and the counts. I hope not but tempers are starting to boil and people have had enough.
I promised last night that I would report back from the meeting tonight as to how those south of the border might help. If they can make arrangements with either BT, the tories or Labour locally great. If not then the best bet is that both Labour and the tories are running phone banks based in England to help GOTV and I suggest you get in contact with them.
Thanks David. Doesn't sound like the behaviour of a side that thinks it's going to win to me..
Comments
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead down one to three points, Greens one point behind Lib Dems: CON 34%, LAB 37%, LD 7%, UKIP 12%, GRN 6%
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-29213416
To keep it in perspective; the current forecast for Leicestershire and Rutland (pop 950 000) is £300 million is needed to be saved over the next 5 years to balance the budget.
The NHS is skint, everywhere.
The mess that Brown has had to clear up is the one created by the No campaign - run by Darling and Alexander.
The reason things are closer than anyone who wants to maintain the union would have liked is because the No campaign has been so awful.
Ed is crap is PM
The government has to kill this stone dead and convene a UK-wide constitutional convention in the event of a no vote, so that all home nations can have a say in how they are governed and formulate a constitutional settlement that respects each and removes any unfairness.
Of course, it won't. Depressingly.
YES 48%
NO 52%%
Labour lead of 3-5 points, LD eat dirt.
Boring!
Ave it says 42-58!
Nationalists - UK or Scottish - must be down.
The establishment collaborate.
I am almost tempted myself...
Good polling night for No.
It's not comfortable but it looks unlikely that Yes could win from here.
http://news.stv.tv/scotland-decides/news/292276-leaked-document-says-nhs-in-scotland-faces-450m-funding-blackhole/
Yes +1.5%, No -1.5%
@MediaGuido: Scottish Sun chooses neither side: "We believe in the people of Scotland to make the right decision." http://t.co/nrVMKSkcbj
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 1m
33 per cent of Labour voters say they will vote Yes -- an increase from 26 per cent last week @Survation #indyref
Have to hand it to Farage. He's smart....
The neutral declaration is a smoke screen for it
“tous pour un et un pour tous” – as the three Musketeers would say…
James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers 3 mins
33 per cent of Labour 2011 Holyrood voters say they will vote Yes -- an increase from 26 per cent last week @survation #indyref
17th Aug: 3.0
24th Aug: 3.5
31st Aug: 3.8
7th Sep: 3.0
14th Sep: 4.2
I still don't believe the methodologies are picking up former non-voters who are overwhelmingly Yes. The polling companies are nervous. There is open rebellion in Labour heartlands and a carnival atmosphere across the nation caused by Yes grassroots. You can hardly see a Yes poster anywhere. Everyone is talking about the referendum. Never seen democracy in action like this!
My prediction 52% Yes, 48% No.
5%, 4%, 3%, 2% ,1% or 0%?
I wouldn't blame him...
http://politicalbetting.vanillaforums.com/discussion/1791/politicalbetting-com-blog-archive-icm-opinium-survation-rolling-blog-on-tonight-s-final#latest
#indyref http://t.co/n9a5Fd652e
I was talking about possibilities, at which point of LD decline will Clegg's seat be at risk.
So if the LD get no votes (0%) nationaly you still think it's possible that Clegg is going to win his own seat?
Indeed, many who consider themselves to be unionists have gone even further than this and have accepted the Scottish Claim of Right of 1988: the claim that it is “the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs”. As is well known, one of the most notable signatories of this declaration was Gordon Brown.
http://nationalconversationforengland.wordpress.com/2008/08/16/scottish-independence-a-uk-wide-referendum-would-be-required/
His Unionist credentials are definitely compromised.
He'll back UKIP.
The only party apart from the Greens to have vastly increased its vote share, so he can still claim to some success.
The BT bus was also vandalised today and this has been reported to the police. The Courier has a number of stories about farmers with BT signs in the fields having their telephone lines cut, threats to release livestock onto the Perth Dual Carriageway and with signs not just vandalised but set on fire.
The idiot fringe at the edge of the Yes campaign is out of control because not nearly enough effort has been made to control it. Trouble is being expected at polling stations and the counts. I hope not but tempers are starting to boil and people have had enough.
I promised last night that I would report back from the meeting tonight as to how those south of the border might help. If they can make arrangements with either BT, the tories or Labour locally great. If not then the best bet is that both Labour and the tories are running phone banks based in England to help GOTV and I suggest you get in contact with them.
Bodes well for the odds of a scottish civil war.
By the way, what is the point of criminal activity where the YES campaign can be described as a terrorist organisation by current anti-terror laws?
Tony Blair wasn't exactly a socialist.