politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Ipsos-MORI’s final #IndyRef poll could be the one to wa
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On the score of death threats, physical attacks, actual police arrests and documented news reports, etc., corroborated by tweets etc. to fill in the gaps, No seems to leading that particular score quite comfortably at the moment, the main exceptions being the infamous eggs and that rather odd story of Mr Palmer exMP.Scott_P said:
How often has the opposing side been rampaging through the streets intimidating people, destroying campaign advertising, marching on broadcasters and threatening journalists?Theuniondivvie said:
As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?
How might that impact the shy factor do you think?
For sure there have been remarkably few arrests given that some posters and newspapers seem to think we are in a state of street war like Germany in the 1930s.
Another test, if I were to accept your views, is whether the timing of the relative issues matches the shy vote discussion. Mr Darling et al's hysteria and the infamous Herald article was IIRC Monday before last. Of course, it may be in their interest to create a climate of fear.
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DONE ALREADY and in spades. The Indy/ref news of the past week has knocked the by- elections off the front page, but I assure you a special pamphlet, re Parris, was printed and distributed by the UKIP activists.HurstLlama said:
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.MikeK said:
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.Cyclefree said:
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.CarlottaVance said:Matthew Parris:
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/matthew-parris/2014/09/if-scotland-leave-we-dont-owe-them-anything-but-its-no-great-favour-to-britain-if-they-stay/
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.0 -
There's a lot in a change of name, and even more so in the fact that the party would not have to obey the leader of the main party. Personally I'm all for dispersion of power -surest way to avoid abuse of power.Carnyx said:
Thanks for that - see also my reply to MaxPB. That makes sense. IIRC it was Murdo Fraser, Ms Davidson's main opponent for Scon leadership, who proposed the demolish and rebuild job.Luckyguy1983 said:
Sorry, it was a little unclear. I propose that the Scottish Conservatives should be independent (ho ho) of the English Conservatives. An affiliated but independent movement, much like the Ulster Unionists. With a new name, and an independent leadership. I believe that an attempt was made to do this a while ago but it was stymied. In this way, the party would benefit from a renewed interest and a renewed appeal, leaving behind the image of the Conservative Party in Scotland, which has been irrevocably damaged. They would therefore be a new and relatively untained party, yet benefit from the existing infrastructure, putting them ahead of UKIP, which has also suffered from image problems.Carnyx said:
Just to clarify, are you talking about UKIP south or north of the border, or both? And why would the split help the Tories to fight UKIP?Luckyguy1983 said:
The Tory party in Scotland should seperate away from the main Tory party. In my opinion it's the only thing that can contain the march of UKIP, which will otherwise limit Tory recover to highly prosperous enclaves. In my opinion.Carnyx said:If anyone doesn't think that the Tories have much to lose in Scotland, I wonder if that is perhaps too much a Westminster view (if hard on Mr Mundell MP).
There are quite a few in the Scottish Parliament, so any problems coming from the Tory side of the tripartite agreement could redound on them in the 2016 elections. Are those hostages to be abandoned by the home party? Have the Tories given up hope of regaining lost territory in Scotland, in the event of a No?
The question is how different the organization would be, right down to faces involved, before enough Scots were willing to accept it had nothing to do with Mrs T. Else you'd need to wait till the oldies died off, and even another couple of decades might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, a good point and one to think about for the future.
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This is my theory.
Around 30% of the Scottish population are core supporters of independence. It bounces around a bit as shown by the excellent Scottish Social Survey, which has asked the same question about it every year since 1999:
http://www.scotcen.org.uk/media/528152/SSA-2014-Launch-JC-Briefing-FINAL.pdf#page=5
We went into this referendum with a historically low support for independence (23%), which is why Unionists were lulled into a false sense of security. Over the campaign, Yes Scotland has managed to persuade a further 20% - 30% who were No's, Don't Know's or Maybe's to switch to YES. They have done this, oddly, by convincing them that independence represents no practical change, leaving the way free for a purely rhetorical switch of position.
Borrowing a term from the Bella Caledonia online magazine, I describe this group as having "made the journey to YES". This group of new Independents are the most vocal, out-posturing even the oldtimers.
I detect a certain levelling off in the rhetoric coming from this quarter as reality at last starts to intrude into the debate. The question is, will they change their vote, or go ahead with YES, but with nagging doubts? I suspect they are too emotionally invested to come off their high horse now, but would privately welcome a YES vote not quite making the bar. If it turns out that way, they will rationalise it as giving Westminster a good kicking and will praise Alex Salmond's brinkmanship. Of course, it could all miscalculate and we get a YES vote after all.
None of this makes feel good, by the way.0 -
Still looking for images of Ed Miliband being chased off by Salmond's Pink Shirts.0
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I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.Scott_P said:#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
I'm just wondering, would any Labour chaps here recognise the good old days of mass action and protest? How many of those are disaffected Labour voters? Or just reporters?
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the suppliers wouldn't be despicable if the drugs were legalised. think of the money we'd save....manofkent2014 said:Anyway I have things to do and now I've seen RCS1000 is in favour of letting off some of the most despicable individuals in our society (drug dealers) off if i don't go now I'll never leave.
Pip Pip!0 -
Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.Richard_Nabavi said:
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking. I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.0 -
Thanks. It'd certainly be worth a try - and would perhaps be forced if the Tories in Westminster 'reneged' on further devolution. The LDs are sort of semidetached, but the real problems could come in for SLAB which as any fule kno is one monolithic party. One Nation and all that. Oh dear.Luckyguy1983 said:
There's a lot in a change of name, and even more so in the fact that the party would not have to obey the leader of the main party. Personally I'm all for dispersion of power -surest way to avoid abuse of power.Carnyx said:
Thanks for that - see also my reply to MaxPB. That makes sense. IIRC it was Murdo Fraser, Ms Davidson's main opponent for Scon leadership, who proposed the demolish and rebuild job.Luckyguy1983 said:
Sorry, it was a little unclear. I propose that the Scottish Conservatives should be independent (ho ho) of the English Conservatives. An affiliated but independent movement, much like the Ulster Unionists. With a new name, and an independent leadership. I believe that an attempt was made to do this a while ago but it was stymied. In this way, the party would benefit from a renewed interest and a renewed appeal, leaving behind the image of the Conservative Party in Scotland, which has been irrevocably damaged. They would therefore be a new and relatively untained party, yet benefit from the existing infrastructure, putting them ahead of UKIP, which has also suffered from image problems.Carnyx said:
Just to clarify, are you talking about UKIP south or north of the border, or both? And why would the split help the Tories to fight UKIP?Luckyguy1983 said:
The Tory party in Scotland should seperate away from the main Tory party. In my opinion it's the only thing that can contain the march of UKIP, which will otherwise limit Tory recover to highly prosperous enclaves. In my opinion.Carnyx said:If anyone doesn't think that the Tories have much to lose in Scotland, I wonder if that is perhaps too much a Westminster view (if hard on Mr Mundell MP).
There are quite a few in the Scottish Parliament, so any problems coming from the Tory side of the tripartite agreement could redound on them in the 2016 elections. Are those hostages to be abandoned by the home party? Have the Tories given up hope of regaining lost territory in Scotland, in the event of a No?
The question is how different the organization would be, right down to faces involved, before enough Scots were willing to accept it had nothing to do with Mrs T. Else you'd need to wait till the oldies died off, and even another couple of decades might not be enough in some areas. Anyway, a good point and one to think about for the future.
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And yet in the 2nd debate, Salmond continually tried to link 'No' with the Tories. How odd.Carnyx said:
I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.Scott_P said:#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
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He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.Richard_Nabavi said:
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.HurstLlama said:
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.MikeK said:
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.Cyclefree said:
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.CarlottaVance said:Matthew Parris:
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/matthew-parris/2014/09/if-scotland-leave-we-dont-owe-them-anything-but-its-no-great-favour-to-britain-if-they-stay/
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.0 -
OnlineSean_F said:
Is the ICM poll by 'phone or online?
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First time I've seen more than the odd No voter on a Twitter. Usually completely drowned out by Yes.
Yes still the louder on Twitter, but not as one sided as it has been.0 -
Did Lord Ashcroft use the same methodology as ICM to get his final figures? I make it Lab 32, Tory 33, UKIP 14 and LD 10, not 33/33/14/9.
From Ashcroft table 2:
DK (2010 votes) = Lab 12, Con 24, LD 28
Ref (2010 votes) = Lab 3, Con 8, LD 1
Divided by two:
Lab 15/2 = 8, Con 32/2 = 16, LD 29/2 = 15. Total = 39
From Ashcroft Table 3 + plus above adjustments:
Lab 168 + 8 from DK/ref = 176
Con 162 + 16 = 178
UKIP unchanged = 74
LD = 42 +15 = 57
Total voters = 508 + 39 = 547
Final:
Lab 32.2%
Con 32.5%
UKIP 13.5%
LD 10.4%
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This was no ordinary piece of hurly-burly. This was aggressive and visceral. This was organised, whipped up hatred. Now this is out of the box, it won’t return there come Friday. I fear the consequences for this great country either way.
http://labourlist.org/2014/09/if-the-press-dont-report-the-mob-rule-of-yes-campaigners-they-are-professionally-negligent/0 -
Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?0
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No of course not, just as no-one from Labour ever 'slaps down' the more loony articles by Polly Toynbee or George Monbiot.HurstLlama said:Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.
They only appear credible because some self-indlugent elements of the right have joined with Labour's personalised class-based attacks.HurstLlama said:As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking.
Then we're stuffed. Resign yourself to years of decline before voters finally regain their senses and look at the actual facts rather than voting on pure prejudice.HurstLlama said:I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
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Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.MikeK said:
DONE ALREADY and in spades. The Indy/ref news of the past week has knocked the by- elections off the front page, but I assure you a special pamphlet, re Parris, was printed and distributed by the UKIP activists.HurstLlama said:
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.MikeK said:
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.Cyclefree said:
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.CarlottaVance said:Matthew Parris:
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/matthew-parris/2014/09/if-scotland-leave-we-dont-owe-them-anything-but-its-no-great-favour-to-britain-if-they-stay/
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.0 -
Brilliant isn't it?HurstLlama said:
Come on, Mr. Nabavi, he holds no post in the Conservative Party but they have been using him for chairing selection meetings and so forth. So perhaps no so uncoupled as you might wish. Did anyone from the Cameron clique come out and slap him down? Not that I have seen reported.Richard_Nabavi said:
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
As you well know smears only gain traction if they appear credible. The Parris article was not of course a smear but to an awful lot of people it might appear a credible version of current top Conservative thinking. I reckon Parris, and the absence of a robust official response, will cost the Conservatives several hundreds of thousands of votes. That has to equal seats.
Earlier today we have volcano Pete calling ukip vile and disgusting etc etc because some supposed ukip supporters on twitter abuse labour over their handling of child abuse....
Yet when an ex conservative mp who chairs conservative assoction events such as hustings, slags off a whole class of people, it is wrong to link it with the conservatives??!!
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SoPN Hewyood and Middleton
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
Con from Bury North
Green from Heywood and Middleton
Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
LD from Heywood and Middleton0 -
If 'shy noes' turn out to be correct as well, then that will lead to a number of questions about why the online polls didn't correct for them and what that implies for UKIP in the GE 2015 polling.AndyJS said:I think rcs1000 could be right about No 60%, although - if so - it would be puzzling why the polls got it so wrong.
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He was a backbench MP over a quarter of a century ago! It's not like he's even someone in the position of Dennis Skinner, a current MP, who says loony things much of the time.Pulpstar said:He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.
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May I duck in and suggest that Bannockburn was irrelevant? The SNP took very little active part in Bannockburn 2014/Homecoming which was effectively delegated to the NTS - hardly a SNP front. To be more involved would have been pointless given two factors. The lack of media control, remember how little the BBC flagged it up specially with Armed Froces Day deliberately placed next door by the UK Gmt and local council. And the overwhelming* lack of references to the 13th and 14 th centuries on the Yes side (as opposed to No), the Declaration of Arbroath excepted.Luckyguy1983 said:
Not all the media. And not the backing of the incumbent Government, which has carefully arranged date, question, age qualification, and a series of national events (Bannockburn/Year of Homecoming) in its favour. Hardly the plucky struggle some are making it out to be.Theuniondivvie said:
[snip]
As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?
*the odd reference to W. Wallace excepted.
The far more important consideration was (a) time to discuss, and we see now also time for Mr Cameron to sort out devomax and all that, if he wished, and (b) concentrating Labour and LD minds as the UKGE approached. And we are seeing how that is panning out, I suppose.0 -
My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.0
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Deaperate tactics by ukip. But then they are a bunch of desperadoes!Pulpstar said:
He is however a former Conservative politician and the association is close enough for UKIP or whoever to take full political advantage.Richard_Nabavi said:
For heaven's sake - the guy's a journalist, not a Conservative politician.HurstLlama said:
Mr. K., The Parris article was much was than that. What he said was that there is a whole chunk of white working class voters whose opinions the Conservatives should ignore.MikeK said:
It's a lot better article than the one Parris did, to write off Clacton as a seedy mess and not worth bothering about.Cyclefree said:
A good article. The recent panicky self-abasement by our political class has been humiliating. If only I had a vote, I'd vote yes. If only we could exile Cameron and Co in Scotland and get ourselves a better class of grown-up politicians.CarlottaVance said:Matthew Parris:
So if it’s ‘yes’ this weekend, the independence negotiations will be handled on the Union side by politicians who feel pretty sore about what has happened, and know their voters feel mildly sore too.
And if it’s a ‘no’, the paradox will be that even as Scotland cleaves to its union with the rest of the United Kingdom, the rest of the United Kingdom turns a little bitterly away. ‘Yes’ or ‘no’ — unless it’s an overwhelming ‘no’ — I as an Englishman will have never felt less affectionately towards Scotland than this weekend.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/matthew-parris/2014/09/if-scotland-leave-we-dont-owe-them-anything-but-its-no-great-favour-to-britain-if-they-stay/
If you are getting on a bit, if you like simple pleasures (not shared by the metropolitan elite), if you care about the fate of ordinary young people (not those destined for Uni) then the Conservative party should not want to know you or care about what you think. That was one whole big ball of poison from a man who runs Conservative election procedures and one which Cameron and his clique have been very inefficient at rebutting. One might almost feel that Cameron agrees with it.
If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you. Add that to Cameron's new "Vow". I reckon UKIP should be odds on to take a few seats next May.
I really think the entire country is going mad. If people are seriously going to change their vote because of such nonsense, then the country is really in a bad way.
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OK, final ELBOW figures for week ending 14th, assuming I've got Ashcroft and ICM sample sizes correct (total 12 polls).
Lab 35.8% (-0.1)
Con 31.6% (-1.2)
UKIP 15.3% (+0.7)
LD 7.8% (+0.4)
Changes from 17th August:
Lab -0.4
Con -1.6
UKIP +2.0
LD -0.9
Lab leads, week ending:
17th Aug: 3.0%
24th Aug: 3.5%
31st Aug: 3.8%
7th Sep: 3.0%
14th Sep: 4.2%0 -
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)AndreaParma_82 said:SoPN Hewyood and Middleton
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
Con from Bury North
Green from Heywood and Middleton
Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
LD from Heywood and Middleton0 -
Channel 4 FactChecks the SNP's NHS claims:
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/188870 -
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
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Tipping point.Peter_the_Punter said:Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
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It does not even compare with the violence in the Quebec referendum.Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
It has been on the whole a restrained and civilised affair, MalcolmG's posts notwithstanding.0 -
Did anyone watch the Peter Kellner lecture shown on BBC Parliament yesterday (he did it a few days ago).
It was all about political parties and why / how they have converged.
I'm sure many posters on here would find it quite interesting.0 -
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?SimonStClare said:
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
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'CHANNEL FOUR WILL RUE THE DAY'CarlottaVance said:Channel 4 FactChecks the SNP's NHS claims:
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/188870 -
ok ok, but when do we get the next important poll that matters - Clacton?MikeK said:*** Poll Alert - New Scottish Independence Polling ****
On behalf of The Scottish Dail Mail, we will have a new Scottish Independence Poll out later today with online fieldwork conducted from 12-16 September. For comparison purposes, use the change since our last online poll for Daily Record published 11 September as the methodology is the same.
SURVATION
Come on Rev O0 -
If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives, not to random journalists whom UKIP dishonestly present as representing the Conservatives.HurstLlama said:Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.
Still, I suppose at least we can now give up any pretence that UKIP are an honest party who talk straight. They seem to have learnt their tactics from Alastair Campbell.
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David Schneider@davidschneider·4 mins
Tough day for Miliband: shouted at, shoved, called a "traitor" and "liar" - that's absolutely the last time he visits his brother.0 -
Interesting to note the calm level headed response of YESNP's tweeters to Labour Lists complaint:TheWatcher said:
'CHANNEL FOUR WILL RUE THE DAY'CarlottaVance said:Channel 4 FactChecks the SNP's NHS claims:
The idea that the Scottish government has bravely struggled to protect the NHS budget under intolerable pressure from Westminster is contradicted by independent research.
The reality is that Scottish governments have for some years chosen to increase health spending by less than it went up in England.
http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/factcheck-scotland-scottish-government-protected-nhs/18887
twitter.com/Markfergusonuk/status/511898384454926338
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I have lived through many decades of decline already. It maybe that for the rest of my life I will see the same. What I will no longer do is vote for parties that have that as their goal.Richard_Nabavi said:
Then we're stuffed. Resign yourself to years of decline before voters finally regain their senses and look at the actual facts rather than voting on pure prejudice.0 -
Given that they are the main funders (directly and indirectly though their contacts) for Better Together, that's fair enough. Even Mr Darling seemed to be agreeing how nice the Tory policies were.TheWatcher said:
And yet in the 2nd debate, Salmond continually tried to link 'No' with the Tories. How odd.Carnyx said:
I find it difficult to take any [edit} posting (sorry, improved wording now) seriously which assumes that the Yes campaign is about the SNP and Mr Salmond alone.Scott_P said:#faisalislam: Quite something when we think it is brave for a leader of the Labour Party to go on a walkabout in a shopping centre in Scotland's capital
Eck's Brownshirts and their ugly campaign of intimidation should face a day of reckoning...
In the case of the street events I think it's far more likely that the main action is from the various lefties of Yes.
It's this lefty component of the Yes campaign I find particularly interesting - and particularly neglected by the media. Yet if SLAB aren't careful they'll find no room anywhere - the SNP in the middle, the SCons on the right (perhaps under a new name and new management) and a new ILP on the left.0 -
I think it was more the inability to conduct interviews because of the shouting of "F*cking liar" and jostling.......Alistair said:
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?SimonStClare said:
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
0 -
Apparently so - I've seen worse behavior at a Harrods sale - #wussies ; )Alistair said:
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?SimonStClare said:
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
0 -
LOLScrapheap_as_was said:David Schneider@davidschneider·4 mins
Tough day for Miliband: shouted at, shoved, called a "traitor" and "liar" - that's absolutely the last time he visits his brother.
0 -
So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?Richard_Nabavi said:
If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives, not to random journalists whom UKIP dishonestly present as representing the Conservatives.HurstLlama said:Any chance you could send me a copy via the PM system? I'll have to kick my local UKIP candidate up the arse but so far I haven't seen it and I have a whole council estate full of people who would love to know what the Conservatives think of them.
Still, I suppose at least we can now give up any pretence that UKIP are an honest party who talk straight. They seem to have learnt their tactics from Alastair Campbell.
0 -
Mention of Bannockburn, Braveheart, Buckfast, deep fried Mars bars & a seceding Shetland are several of the unmistakable stigmata of the Indy idiot.Carnyx said:
May I duck in and suggest that Bannockburn was irrelevant?Luckyguy1983 said:
Not all the media. And not the backing of the incumbent Government, which has carefully arranged date, question, age qualification, and a series of national events (Bannockburn/Year of Homecoming) in its favour. Hardly the plucky struggle some are making it out to be.Theuniondivvie said:
[snip]
As a poster on JK's site said, has anyone ever come across a shy vote for the side clearly ahead in polls which has the backing of all the media?0 -
Not sure.Casino_Royale said:
Tipping point.Peter_the_Punter said:Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
0 -
No-one wants to call Thursday’s result yet. But the activists in Rutherglen at least don’t seem to be in a colossal panic. Indeed, they seem far more optimistic than those back in Westminster.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/09/no-quietly-confident-on-campaign-trail/0 -
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
0 -
@Richard_Nabavi
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.0 -
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!0 -
And...........they're off!
"This bloody deal, there has been no discussion in the parliamentary party, no warning, talk about panicked policy making on the hoof. Morale in the party is at rock bottom,” said one senior backbencher.
“The mess we are in now means a No vote is only just better than a Yes vote. A No vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and not great for Britain; a Yes vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and a disaster for Britain.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/edb8ffe6-3da9-11e4-b782-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DUyy1m9V
0 -
Ryedale 1986 was the last time there were 3 candidates. Will have to check for 4 or 5...Lennon said:
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)AndreaParma_82 said:SoPN Hewyood and Middleton
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
Con from Bury North
Green from Heywood and Middleton
Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
LD from Heywood and Middleton0 -
Another whinging jessiePeter_the_Punter said:
It does not even compare with the violence in the Quebec referendum.Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
It has been on the whole a restrained and civilised affair, MalcolmG's posts notwithstanding.0 -
So it was factual shouting given he is a liarCarlottaVance said:
I think it was more the inability to conduct interviews because of the shouting of "F*cking liar" and jostling.......Alistair said:
Really? Journalists are complaining about a scrum around a political figure?SimonStClare said:
I thought it was a Guardian journalist doing the complaining - they're notoriously delicate...Alistair said:My ancestor read the Riot Act in Glasgow during the Red Clydeside uprising. I cannot fucking believe Labour members are complaining about shoving and shouting as if it's the fucking apocalypse.
0 -
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO. He's also been betting on a high turnout.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not sure.Casino_Royale said:
Tipping point.Peter_the_Punter said:Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
Are you still expecting 90%+ Peter, or stopping your buys at c.83%? (More likely IMHO)0 -
Do they think pollsters will take time out from polling to phone the rest of their family or their friends?MaxPB said:
Shy voters are shy because they are afraid of the recriminations of their choice by friends and family. That means No in this case. ICM had TCTC with 18% undecided and sure to vote. That screams massive shy voter syndrome.
0 -
Yes, I think that is broadly right.Alanbrooke said:They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.
Labour have said nothing substantive at all, and I suspect will continue to say as little as possible apart from some Miliband gimmicks, because they don't want to scare off any of their supporters with any glimpses of reality.
The Conservatives have been hammering the 'our long-term economic plan is working' line for the last few months; it's a good line, and seems to be getting through as measured by the 'trust on the economy' polling. They now need to be more specific and forward-looking in terms of what they would do in the next parliament. I imagine we'll see that happening at the conference and in the months that follow.
The LibDems seem to be all over the place. I think they have got some quite good messages but they are delivered too sporadically.0 -
I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.0
-
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.Alanbrooke said:
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!0 -
How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.HurstLlama said:@Richard_Nabavi
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
After all what have the Romans ever done for us?0 -
The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.0
-
Sunil. You've only called it ELBOW to set yourself up with lines about not knowing Jack W's ARSE from your ELBOW. Haven't you?Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, I'm stuck - for the sake of my ELBOW!
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention
question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
Tables here:
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_sept_poll.pdf0 -
"No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.
A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'
And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html0 -
Is it also wrong for us to pay in lots and lots more money.Socrates said:I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
0 -
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?Casino_Royale said:One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
0 -
@HurstLlama
'If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you.'
So if as you say Parris represents Conservative thinking, then I guess you have to agree that Godfrey Bloom's 'women are sluts' is what UKIP think of women.0 -
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.HurstLlama said:
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.Alanbrooke said:
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!0 -
Steady on, Casino. I never predicted 90%+Casino_Royale said:
One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO. He's also been betting on a high turnout.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not sure.Casino_Royale said:
Tipping point.Peter_the_Punter said:Anybody know why the pound has suddenly perked up on the exchanges?
I wouldn't bet the house on these things, but I kind of think that if I were an FX trader I'd be shorting pounds a bit until the outcome of the referendum was certain, and buying them again if it's a No.
At a guess, I should think we'll be down to about 1.20 for a euro if it's Yes, up to 1.27 on a No. I'm surprised how little fluctuation in the rate there has been over the last week or so.
Maybe the currency markets are less bothered than we are.
Are you still expecting 90%+ Peter, or stopping your buys at c.83%? (More likely IMHO)
I bought at 79 and encouraged others to do likewise until today when Sporting upped their line to 83.5%. There's no value in that price, imo, but I wouldn't sell either.
My guess is between 82/84% but I wouldn't be altogether surprised by the high eighties, or even 90%. Quebec did manage 93% after all, and in some ways the Scottish electorate could prove to be even keener.
0 -
HmmHurstLlama said:
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.Alanbrooke said:
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
I suspect that's somewhat overdoing it Mr L. I can see an election where the 3 main parties are down to their core votes with kippers and others mopping up the voters looking for a home. Really it will all come down to the vote distibution in the 150 or so marginals and how people behave on the "keep out Ed v keep out the Tories" spectrum.
If the pollsters had a headache in the Indyref, they may have a bigger one coming in May next year.0 -
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?Casino_Royale said:One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
edit: also, who makes Zoff? Their sales will collapse too.
edit #2: whiteboard pens? Airfix polystyrene cement?0 -
Us Londoners pay in a lot more.malcolmg said:
Is it also wrong for us to pay in lots and lots more money.Socrates said:I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
0 -
Mazola? Is that an exotic English delicacy?Bond_James_Bond said:
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?Casino_Royale said:One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?0 -
You really must have contempt for the ~50% of your compatriots who are likely to vote for them, then, whatever the outcome on Thursday. What a sad state of affairs.malcolmg said:The chickens on here are nothing if not anally retentive, they regurgitate the same old tat week after week, just like BT , no hopers lacking intelligence , flair and vision. Dull , washed out losers.
0 -
Doc, the Economic growth figures are the most meaningless of many that the Government use as props. How much more wealthy is your average patient with all this growf?foxinsoxuk said:
How about raising the tax threshold to take the low paid out of tax? Admittedly a LD policy, but one the Conservatives have adopted. Restoring economic growth to the highest rate of our competitors while keeping inflation down and 1.5 million jobs in the private sector. Then there are free schools, local input into health care commissioning, freezing petrol tax etc etc.HurstLlama said:@Richard_Nabavi
"If they want to know what the Conservatives think of them (and, more importantly, intend to do to improve things for them), they should listen to the Conservatives"
Ok. I am all ears listening out on all channels. Feint mentions of giving more money and powers to Scotland but paid for by English taxpayers. Still listening but can't hear anything other than static.
After all what have the Romans ever done for us?
Anyway, the question I put forward was not "What have the Romans done for us?" but "Why should we vote for them again?"0 -
Did you see the most interesting posts by Mr OblitusSumMe on Barnett in the previous thread?Socrates said:I have to say that I find it much more distasteful the pledge to maintain the Barnett formula than the pledge to give Scotland more powers. It's very wrong that Scotland gets higher spending per head than poorer parts of England and Wales.
0 -
0
-
No BNP candidate in Heywood & Middleton. They polled 3,239 votes (7.0%) in 2010:
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf0 -
You have interfered with my plans for the last time, Mr Bond!Bond_James_Bond said:
Sunil. You've only called it ELBOW to set yourself up with lines about not knowing Jack W's ARSE from your ELBOW. Haven't you?Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, I'm stuck - for the sake of my ELBOW!
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention
question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
Tables here:
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_sept_poll.pdf
0 -
http://www.mazola.comCarnyx said:
Mazola? Is that an exotic English delicacy?Bond_James_Bond said:
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?Casino_Royale said:One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?0 -
My turnout prediction is 83% and I'd be very surprised if it's more than 1% higher or lower than that.0
-
Evening allCarlottaVance said:And...........they're off!
"This bloody deal, there has been no discussion in the parliamentary party, no warning, talk about panicked policy making on the hoof. Morale in the party is at rock bottom,” said one senior backbencher.
“The mess we are in now means a No vote is only just better than a Yes vote. A No vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and not great for Britain; a Yes vote is a disaster for the Conservatives and a disaster for Britain.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/edb8ffe6-3da9-11e4-b782-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DUyy1m9V
I'm a long way from you politically but this is now obviously the case and the YouGov poll the weekend before last was the catalyst for the panic. The poll put the YES side 51-49 in front and triggered last week's events.
For Want of a Poll....
0 -
The last 5-handers were Leicester South; and Inverclyde in 2011.RodCrosby said:
Ryedale 1986 was the last time there were 3 candidates. Will have to check for 4 or 5...Lennon said:
Is that one of the shortest recent nomination lists for a by-election? Normally you get all sorts of odds and sods taking the option of standing (Independents, OMRLP, etc.)AndreaParma_82 said:SoPN Hewyood and Middleton
http://www.rochdale.gov.uk/pdf/2014-09-16-SPNNOP.pdf
UKIP candidate gives an address from Eddisbury
Con from Bury North
Green from Heywood and Middleton
Labour from Rossendale and Darwen
LD from Heywood and Middleton
Mid-Ulster 2013 was a 4 hander. The last mainland 4-hander must be pre-1986...0 -
Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.JohnO said:
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.HurstLlama said:
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.Alanbrooke said:
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.0 -
Mid Beds bigot prints more garbage. Do you not have a life you sad sack pathetic Little Englander.Paul_Mid_Beds said:"No campaign sources have claimed that a Better Together activist in Aberdeen was warned he would feel like a 'Christian missionary in Syria' after a Yes vote.
A nationalist was also reported to have turned to his son in front of unionist activists in Glasgow and said: 'One day, remind me to tell you what Mussolini did to collaborators.'
And an English activist in Glasgow was told to 'get out of my country', while a Spanish woman, who had lived in Scotland for 20 years, was spat on while leaving a No rally and told to go home."
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758136/Bow-imperial-master-Miliband-Labour-leader-hounded-Edinburgh-shopping-centre-Yes-protesters-pleads-civilised-debate.html0 -
Gordon Brown is one titan of a politician.
0 -
You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.
You support the PM's 'vow' to throw more money and power at this turbulent Scotland at the expense of the good people of Elmbridge? Right behind him, are we Mr John O?
0 -
That's rather higher than you started out with, Andy, isn't it?AndyJS said:My turnout prediction is 83% and I'd be very surprised if it's more than 1% higher or lower than that.
0 -
There's even a real possibility that Brown taking charge of the No campaign will save the Union and cost David Cameron his job.
Lol.0 -
Unlike the SNP who come up with new lies tat week after week.....seen the Channel 4 demolition FactCheck on the SNP's NHS lies claims?malcolmg said:the same old tat week after week.
0 -
As I recal the titans lost...Hugh said:Gordon Brown is one titan of a politician.
0 -
Very indeed still does not change the fact that you are a whinging jessie, I have never criticised you in the past, yet you choose to single me out and insult me so what do you expect. You want me to send you flowers. Get a life.Peter_the_Punter said:@MalcolmG
"Another whinging jessie"
Very brave you are Malcolm, from behind your computer.0 -
Even if one did have to agree to that, bloom wasn't using the word slut to mean "slag", and he was jokingjohn_zims said:@HurstLlama
'If I were running UKIP election strategy I would have copes of the Parris article posted to every house in my target areas and posted up on every lamppost within them. This is what the Conservatives think of you.'
So if as you say Parris represents Conservative thinking, then I guess you have to agree that Godfrey Bloom's 'women are sluts' is what UKIP think of women.
0 -
Certainly Brown's performance confirms that those Labour supporters who think Miliband can't do worse in 2015 than Brown did in 2010 might be in for a nasty shock.Hugh said:There's even a real possibility that Brown taking charge of the No campaign will save the Union and cost David Cameron his job.
Lol.0 -
No flies on you eh bond?Bond_James_Bond said:
Sunil. You've only called it ELBOW to set yourself up with lines about not knowing Jack W's ARSE from your ELBOW. Haven't you?Sunil_Prasannan said:OK, I'm stuck - for the sake of my ELBOW!
I'm trying to work out how ICM's Guardian poll came up with final published figures of Lab 35/Con 33/UKIP 9/LD 10 (table 4), when its unadjusted figures (table 3) are 37/33/10/9.
"In a further step, ICM add 50% of those who refuse to answer the vote intention
question or say they don’t know to the party they voted for in 2010."
I don't get how that translates into the final figures - I've even emailed Martin Boon, but he wasn't too forthcoming, repeating what he said in the intro to the PDF tables!
Tables here:
http://www.icmresearch.com/data/media/pdf/2014_guardian_sept_poll.pdf0 -
@MrLlama – sorry to hear of the old Brute’s passing – hope you and he are together soon ; )0
-
sad to hear that Hurst, my daughter has had one cat put down recently and her second one diagnosed with cancer so appreciate how you feel, she had them almost 20 years.HurstLlama said:
Thanks Mr, O, the first genuine belly laugh of the day. Blessings unto you. I have the moustache, it may from time to time be foam flecked but not normally while I am posting, and I never wear a jacket indoors at home.JohnO said:
Goodness, you realize you are sounding more like the archetypal angry kipper every time you post, foam flecking the moustache and dribbling onto the blue blazer. You'll be attacking the Brute with last week's Telegraph pensioner supplement by the end of the week at this rate.HurstLlama said:
Mr Brooke, I strongly suspect that the Conservatives are in for an absolute pounding next May. Mr. Eagles' Dockside Hooker will have a day off in comparison. Nothing really to do with a better offering from Labour, in fact I am sure Miliband will make an even bigger dogs breakfast of the whole thing, but because Cameron is just such a gutless blancmange so few people will vote for him.Alanbrooke said:
They haven't said anything meaningful for the last year or so, bar a bit of posturing. I suspect we are in GE purdah much like Labour.Richard_Nabavi said:
I wouldn't say it was 'quiet' exactly! But it is certainly true that the focus hasn't been on the economy and domestic politics, apart from Scotland, over recent weeks.Alanbrooke said:So what are the Conservatives saying it all seems a little quiet atm ?
Let's get IndyRef out of the way, and then we can all enjoy the conferences, starting with Labour. That should be fun!
The Brute, alas, is no longer with us he passed over at 08:29 on Friday 5th September. I am looking forward to meeting him on the other side when I may or may not have a copy of the Telegraph's Pensioner Supplement with me.
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Thank you. Never deep-fried at home in my life! I'll stick to olive oil from the local food co-op!Bond_James_Bond said:
http://www.mazola.comCarnyx said:
Mazola? Is that an exotic English delicacy?Bond_James_Bond said:
I'd be shorting Mars and Mazola stock right now if I thought it was going to be a Yes.Richard_Nabavi said:
Do you know whether he thinks a Yes vote, were it to happen, would have a big impact on the markets?Casino_Royale said:One of my friends is a FX trader at Deutsche Bank. Not saying he has any special knowledge, but he's been following all this very closely. He's very certain it will be a NO.
With no English money, how will the Scotch afford their staple meal?
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Yes my original prediction, from April, put it at 80%. But recent reports would seem to indicate it being a bit higher.Peter_the_Punter said:
That's rather higher than you started out with, Andy, isn't it?AndyJS said:My turnout prediction is 83% and I'd be very surprised if it's more than 1% higher or lower than that.
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