New poll has 59% want CON MPs to vote to remove BoJo – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Its why I use both adblock built into my VPN and a separate chrome browser extension. Basically nothing gets through.MattW said:
Hmm. I have Google Chrome and Adblock+ .FrancisUrquhart said:
VPN with adblock + adblock extension in chrome = 0 popups.MattW said:
Just had a look, and I had to go through FOUR popups to read the story.Stuartinromford said:
MP for Gosport. Splendid place.Scott_xP said:Tory MPs starting to crowdsource their confidence vote https://twitter.com/cj_dinenage/status/1533797285754183687
(And I think the only Conservative MP left who was chosen by an Open Primary.)
In other Gosport news, one street cocked up their order for bunting and ended up with 4.5 km of the stuff;
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/people/queens-platinum-jubilee-selsey-avenue-in-gosport-transformed-into-sea-of-blue-white-and-red-after-accidentally-ordering-45km-of-bunting-3720108
Gosport's newspaper can go f*ck itself. Politely.0 -
You are confusing 2 different things. The Parliamentary Conservative Party having confidence in Boris as Leader of the Conservative Party, and the House of Commons having confidence in the Conservative Government. It is very possible, indeed overwhelmingly likely, that Conservative MP's would happily continue to have confidence in the Government during a Tory leadership election - along the lines of 'I have confidence in a Tory government, no matter who is leading it - but I don't have confidence that Boris is the best person to be leading that Tory Government'Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.2 -
As I understand it...Aslan said:People the other day were asking for examples of the BBC being too woke. Well how about this article?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61701908
It is about the reaction to alleged inflammatory statements about Islam by a BJP politician but... the news organization does not actually say what the statement is. Because heaven above a global news organization report the factual root of the story.
What was the actual offending statement? In response to Muslims mocking Hindu deities she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
https://www.opindia.com/2022/05/islamists-issue-death-threats-to-nupur-sharma-prophet-muhammad-aisha-what-islamic-scriptures-say/
Now these are things that are ACTUALLY in the Koran and most trusted Hadith. So factually reporting a non-Muslim saying what Muslims actually believe is now too politically incorrect to be reported, even if it at the core of a major news story.
Aisha's age is not in the Koran. There are hadith that give ages, but there isn't a consensus over their accuracy. So, that's not something that is believed by all Muslims. Plenty believe she was older (15, 19, etc.).
Wording around the Earth being flat is somewhat ambiguous and contested. That's not something that is believed by most Muslims.
The winged horse is in the Koran, although it's a winged horse-like beast, it's not necessarily a winged horse. Tradition has it as more of a chimera.0 -
It was a fudge. Hotel isolation was just from a select number of countries. So loads of people simply re-routed their flights. If I remember correctly, Turkey was a particular popular by-pass destination to avoid this.Flatlander said:
We did actually have hotel isolation at one point, didn't we? I recall the first few cases were put in a quarantine hotel. We heard endless reports on social media from people who were locked in a room.LostPassword said:
It was the low levels of community transmission at the time that would have made a policy of hotel isolation practical. MaxPB was one who advocated for it most forcefully on here, as a way to avoid more general restrictions on liberty.Foxy said:
July 2020? I don't buy that. Possibly a viable policy in Feb 2020, but by July it had faded to allow EOTHO etc.Andy_JS said:Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:
"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088
I don't believe Mad Nad.
You couldn't have done it in Feb 2020, because we didn't have the testing capacity to identify the infectious.
That stopped once it became obvious that there wasn't going to be enough hotel space or staff.
It bought us a week at the most.0 -
Just signed on. Have I missed much?0
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With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.1 -
Technically correct but in the real world a majority of one means its all over really quickly.Scott_xP said:Culture Sec Nadine Dorries tells our @BethRigby she’s “not worried at all” about the vote today calling it a “distraction”. She adds a “majority of one” is enough to move on.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/15338039357602529282 -
I'd take anything Nadine Dorries publicly says about what Jeremy Hunt said to her with a huge pinch of salt.
I don't believe for a second he suggested pulling people out of their homes during Covid-19 to forcibly quarantine them.3 -
It’s going to be usual Boris bollocks and bluster with some classical history references thrown in - he’s Horatius Cocles holding off the hoards who wish to turn back Brexit etc etc.RochdalePioneers said:
BlowJob is addressing the '22 at 4pm. Remember that his doing so after the Gray report is widely reported as being pivotal in accelerating the input of no confidence letters...numbertwelve said:
I agree, it feels like it is slipping away from him. Mad Nad hasn’t done him any favours either. Last chance is a rallying cry at 4pm?kinabalu said:
Me too at 4.5. The reasons to ditch look stronger than those to keep and this is their chance.algarkirk said:
I think he will lose today, and have modestly backed this view.TheValiant said:
So am I.StuartDickson said:
I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.TheValiant said:FPT:
And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.Scott_xP said:🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...
By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote
It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).
He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.
I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.
Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.
Plus Raab thinks he’ll win the vote. So that must strongly indicate he’s losing it.
Thing is they’ve all heard it enough that the joke is stale and the scales will have been removed from enough people’s eyes.
It’s like how every time you hear “world beating” now from Boris or suchlike instead of a swelling of pride in your patriotic heart everyone just thinks “ffs this is tedious crap”.1 -
Fair enough. For some reason I had in mind that "I'm enjoying this!" was at a PMQs.Stuartinromford said:
The greatest precedent of all...Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/nov/22/confidence-in-her-majestys-government
https://youtu.be/nw4JB25nr0s
"I'm enjoying this!"0 -
Nadine Dorries on Sky with Beth Rigby must be stacking up the rebels not least over her ill judged attack on Jeremy Hunt
She is a shocking advert for the conservative party1 -
FTSE100's up.RobD said:Just signed on. Have I missed much?
0 -
Tom Tugendhat is absurdly short at 9/1.
I don't see any circumstances where he's close to those odds for being the next Prime Minister.1 -
Crypto pumping....Benpointer said:
FTSE100's up.RobD said:Just signed on. Have I missed much?
0 -
It would not be an abuse of process. It would be a choice made by the Commons. Your reasoning is reason for the Commons to not make that choice. But if the Commons says it doesn't have confidence in anyone, it is the Commons' choice to have an election.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.1 -
Its about Partygate, front and centre. That's why Johnson was booed. That's why 95% of the nation wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire. Lies about parties when they didn't see mum or didn't get the last chat with the dying relative or to go the funeral, or held a shit one with an officious prick stopping a hug.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
For some in the media its always brexit. For the public this is about the parties and the lies. 100%3 -
I'm not sure we can read too much into it.Richard_Nabavi said:As at 2.30pm, @johnestevens has counted 102 statements of support for Boris.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.
Theresa May had a clear bloc in her favour, and a hung parliament.
Support/opposition for Boris is far more diffused.0 -
An attempt by Boris at reprising his most enduring joke. Nadine Dorries Culture secretary. It's got to be up there with Caligula's horseAndy_JS said:Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:
"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/15337634058441850881 -
Why will he do that? If he thinks he can win a GE he could cling onto office, lose a VoNC in the Commons and advise a dissolution. This is what Callaghan did as recently as 1979. After all, he has nowhere else to go.Benpointer said:
With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded (it won't) after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.0 -
Jeez Dorries would back Bozo even if he blew up a school bus !
Blaming Remainers is pathetic given many Leave Tories have said they’re voting against him .0 -
What would Tory MPs do? Hastily rally around a temporary PM. Messy, but hardly an intractable problem.Benpointer said:
With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.0 -
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.3 -
Coincidentally that speech from Kinnock contains the gem "Those who make the law cannot break the law."Stuartinromford said:
The greatest precedent of all...Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/nov/22/confidence-in-her-majestys-government
https://youtu.be/nw4JB25nr0s
"I'm enjoying this!"
1 -
It's NOT an abuse of process.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If the Conservatives were in the middle of a leadership crisis, they'd simply bat aside a Parliamentary vote with their 359 votes.
IF the situation was such that a leadership election within the Conservative party was underway, and the Conservatives couldn't get together the needed 322 to - in tangent- survive a Parliamentary vote, then I'd suggest they don't deserve to be the government anyway. In fact, it'd be a nice way to force a GE and then the Conservatives present a new leader in time for that GE.
The two processes share a name, namely 'VONC' but they operate completely independently of each other and there being one in progress does not prevent the other happening too.
If the DUP called a VONC in Jeffrey Donaldson, would you argue that Sir Keir Starmer couldn't VONC the government because the DUP party was in a leadership election?1 -
You can both be right. The VONC is about Partygate, but the topic of key debate in a subsequent leadership context could be Brexit.turbotubbs said:
Its about Partygate, front and centre. That's why Johnson was booed. That's why 95% of the nation wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire. Lies about parties when they didn't see mum or didn't get the last chat with the dying relative or to go the funeral, or held a shit one with an officious prick stopping a hug.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
For some in the media its always brexit. For the public this is about the parties and the lies. 100%1 -
Amazing how the lesson these MPs have learned is the opposite of the obvious lesson from 1990 - namely that a change of leader reversed the party’s fortunes and enabled another election win (also the lesson of Boris’ 2019 arrival).
https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status/15338070197649817620 -
Gangi, Sicily
Doesn't bring you happiness when smarkets and Betfair won't take your bets1 -
It’s the fuzzy socialism and fiscal incontinence that have tipped the balance I reckon.Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.1 -
Of those 102, how many will vote against given that it's a secret ballot. Especially with all the pressure to declare in favour on payroll MPs. I wouldn't be shocked if of those 102 he actually only get 80 or so votes.Richard_Nabavi said:As at 2.30pm, @johnestevens has counted 102 statements of support for Boris.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.0 -
She is simply pathetic - no other words are needednico679 said:Jeez Dorries would back Bozo even if he blew up a school bus !
Blaming Remainers is pathetic given many Leave Tories have said they’re voting against him .1 -
You are, in effect, arguing the governing Party has a de facto veto on when a VONC can or can't be called.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
That's what I'd call abuse of process.
And it wouldn't win. But if it did there'd have to be an election. Or, far more likely, someone temporary who commands the confidence of the House.0 -
Go Nadine LOL!Andy_JS said:Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:
"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088
0 -
This is soooooooooo tedious. Look, as a remainer who probably wanted to rejoin I fully accept it ain't gonna happen. Brexit has been and GONE. We have to live with it now for good or ill, mostly the latter.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
There are a hundred things which matter and as many reasons why Johnson is a liability. Brexit isn't one of them.1 -
The critical dynamic is that he's already done everything he was elected to do, and he seems fairly clueless about what to do next. Almost nobody was happy with how he handled the pandemic (in one direction or the other) even before partygate, and his economic policies have been controversial - and possibly courageous - within the party.Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.1 -
I think Partygate - and specifically his response to it rather than the parties themselves - reminded everyone of who he is, and always will be. It was the moment the MPs allowed the scales to fall from their eyes.Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.2 -
Do we have a ballpark figure of Tory MP's who voted Remain?0
-
Don't disagree with that. I think the direction we take Brexit in WILL be up for grabs, its just that today is about the visceral hatred of Johnson that the public now has.bondegezou said:
You can both be right. The VONC is about Partygate, but the topic of key debate in a subsequent leadership context could be Brexit.turbotubbs said:
Its about Partygate, front and centre. That's why Johnson was booed. That's why 95% of the nation wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire. Lies about parties when they didn't see mum or didn't get the last chat with the dying relative or to go the funeral, or held a shit one with an officious prick stopping a hug.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
For some in the media its always brexit. For the public this is about the parties and the lies. 100%1 -
Some other things ring true today, too.Benpointer said:
Coincidentally that speech from Kinnock contains the gem "Those who make the law cannot break the law."Stuartinromford said:
The greatest precedent of all...Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/nov/22/confidence-in-her-majestys-government
https://youtu.be/nw4JB25nr0s
"I'm enjoying this!"
But when the windy rhetoric of the right hon. Member for Islwyn (Mr. Kinnock) has blown away, what are their real reasons for bringing this motion before the House? There were no alternative policies—just a lot of disjointed, opaque words.0 -
Wales qualified for the World Cup and EnglandRobD said:Just signed on. Have I missed much?
made a woeful start towon the test match.0 -
Ah yes but... in my scenario Johnson hasn't indicated he's going - he is still the PM. Do the Tories rally around the PM they have just VoNC'ed as party leader?bondegezou said:
What would Tory MPs do? Hastily rally around a temporary PM. Messy, but hardly an intractable problem.Benpointer said:
With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.0 -
All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel2
-
I was completely with you until the last para. It would be very tricky for conservative MPs, and potentially disastrous for the party, neither of which are things that Johnson cares even slightly about if there could be personal benefit. He might calculate that in the absence of an agreed leader their least bad option was to allow him to fight the election as incumbent. Presumably he'd expect to win - but even if he assessed his chance as <1%, it's still a bigger chance then the 0% if he resigns. The upside is his (important), the downside is the party's and the country's (unimportant).Benpointer said:
With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.Applicant said:
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?dixiedean said:
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process?Applicant said:
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?dixiedean said:
On what grounds?Applicant said:
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?Andy_JS said:
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.DougSeal said:
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?RochdalePioneers said:
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:TOPPING said:Oh people are over here, are they.
fpt
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.1 -
Yes. Partygate is the trigger, but a popular PM with a clear policy agenda and a happy country could've shrugged off Partygate. A PM with many obvious flaws, constant U-turns, presiding over a country with the worst cost of living crises since records began, he can't shrug off Partygate.Applicant said:
The critical dynamic is that he's already done everything he was elected to do, and he seems fairly clueless about what to do next. Almost nobody was happy with how he handled the pandemic (in one direction or the other) even before partygate, and his economic policies have been controversial - and possibly courageous - within the party.Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.0 -
Brexit isn't going anywhere. It's not longer about in or out, it's about our long term relationship with the EU. The NIP and article 16 nonsense is just the latest example of how it will never be "done" in the way Boris would have you believe.Heathener said:
This is soooooooooo tedious. Look, as a remainer who probably wanted to rejoin I fully accept it ain't gonna happen. Brexit has been and GONE. We have to live with it now for good or ill, mostly the latter.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
There are a hundred things which matter and as many reasons why Johnson is a liability. Brexit isn't one of them.1 -
Yes, but to the extent that the situations are comparable, that was probably also true in the Theresa May case, so it's already baked into the figures.MaxPB said:
Of those 102, how many will vote against given that it's a secret ballot. Especially with all the pressure to declare in favour on payroll MPs. I wouldn't be shocked if of those 102 he actually only get 80 or so votes.Richard_Nabavi said:As at 2.30pm, @johnestevens has counted 102 statements of support for Boris.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.
The John Stevens tally is now up to 105 pro-Boris statements (although some of them look a bit ambiguous to me), which still isn't looking great for him.0 -
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
1 -
I don't think he has much hinterland of support. He was backed to break the Brexit deadlock, but no real love lost, and the constant chaos hasn't endeared. Once he becomes an electoral liability, why not get rid?Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
I have backed him losing today.0 -
Pray there's no abstentions, I've taken
Boris wins by 100+ @ 4.0 £40
& 131+ MPs No confidence @ 1.56 £90.
It's almost an arb with abstention & a small risk if the vote is exactly 130 - 229 I think...0 -
And why wouldn't you, as a Cons MP, very vocally and ostentatiously support the PM if that is what you were going to do.MaxPB said:
Of those 102, how many will vote against given that it's a secret ballot. Especially with all the pressure to declare in favour on payroll MPs. I wouldn't be shocked if of those 102 he actually only get 80 or so votes.Richard_Nabavi said:As at 2.30pm, @johnestevens has counted 102 statements of support for Boris.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.
No downside at all. If you thought he was going to win.0 -
It'll be a factor. But unlike 2019, it won't be the factor.turbotubbs said:
Don't disagree with that. I think the direction we take Brexit in WILL be up for grabs, its just that today is about the visceral hatred of Johnson that the public now has.bondegezou said:
You can both be right. The VONC is about Partygate, but the topic of key debate in a subsequent leadership context could be Brexit.turbotubbs said:
Its about Partygate, front and centre. That's why Johnson was booed. That's why 95% of the nation wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire. Lies about parties when they didn't see mum or didn't get the last chat with the dying relative or to go the funeral, or held a shit one with an officious prick stopping a hug.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
For some in the media its always brexit. For the public this is about the parties and the lies. 100%0 -
Doesn't mean they willHYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
2 -
Does “no confidence” need a majority of those who vote, or a majority over all? If I was payroll I might find it hard to get back….0
-
Gray didn't make any difference is the point; didn't increase the partygate hate but didn't diminish it either. It is really about that: see vox pops, statements by Tory MPs about constituents letters etcStark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.0 -
Partygate (as @turbotubbs said a minute ago) and the extended platty joobs hollibobs meant MPs returned home to their constituents, or canvassed in Tiverton, and got both barrels from their erstwhile supporters who had followed the rules.Stark_Dawning said:
I've been wondering if there's a dog that's failing to bark in all of this. We were solemnly assured by Boris's admirers, both on here and in the media, that the Gray Report was laughably undamning - just a photo of Boris with a pile of crap sandwiches and a can of Coke. Yet, his MPs are now enacting the whole febrile and traumatizing process of a leadership challenge. Is this really just down to PartyGate - something I'd have thought was perfectly spinnable - or are there other dynamics afoot?MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.1 -
Where?Pulpstar said:Pray there's no abstentions, I've taken
Boris wins by 100+ @ 4.0 £40
& 131+ MPs No confidence @ 1.56 £90.
It's almost an arb with abstention & a small risk if the vote is exactly 130 - 229 I think...0 -
I don’t see Tory donors pulling support if Johnson goes . They’ve supported the party well before he became PM and will do so after he’s gone , whenever that is .0
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When Boris Johnson sets the bar for truth so low, I think we can all forgive them such a "white lie" to get rid of the liar-in-chiefBig_G_NorthWales said:
Doesn't mean they willHYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
0 -
Nadine Dorries really has become the Conservative rebels most effective campaigning agent, one of Boris Johnson's biggest errors was not clearing out under performing cheer leading Ministers like Dorries a while ago while leaving far too many more talented and politically astute media performers sitting on the back benches.Scott_xP said:Culture Sec Nadine Dorries tells our @BethRigby she’s “not worried at all” about the vote today calling it a “distraction”. She adds a “majority of one” is enough to move on.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/15338039357602529282 -
Surely if you are any Cabinet member and you fancy being PM then your best chance is to get rid of the current PM. There are a lot in Cabinet who clearly want to be PM. Therefore if you want the ball to come lose from the back of the ruck your should be declaring your support and voting to get rid. I don't see any other logic.HYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
1 -
Plus Jack W's point earlier is relevant. There will be Tory MPs who will vote for Boris but who won't want their constituents to know that they did so. These MPs will do their best to keep quiet. There will also be MPs who plan to vote against Boris who will be keeping quiet; if they want Boris to go but want to not damage their career prospects if he survives.Casino_Royale said:
I'm not sure we can read too much into it.Richard_Nabavi said:As at 2.30pm, @johnestevens has counted 102 statements of support for Boris.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.
Theresa May had a clear bloc in her favour, and a hung parliament.
Support/opposition for Boris is far more diffused.
0 -
Correct. As someone said the past is not dead. It's not even past.TimS said:
Brexit isn't going anywhere. It's not longer about in or out, it's about our long term relationship with the EU. The NIP and article 16 nonsense is just the latest example of how it will never be "done" in the way Boris would have you believe.Heathener said:
This is soooooooooo tedious. Look, as a remainer who probably wanted to rejoin I fully accept it ain't gonna happen. Brexit has been and GONE. We have to live with it now for good or ill, mostly the latter.MoonRabbit said:
It’s not about Brexit?Scott_xP said:Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.
Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
There are a hundred things which matter and as many reasons why Johnson is a liability. Brexit isn't one of them.0 -
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?0 -
Thank the Lord I'm Welsh.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Wales qualified for the World Cup and EnglandRobD said:Just signed on. Have I missed much?
made a woeful start towon the test match.1 -
Sounds like a price renegotiation than walking away, no?Farooq said:
Elon Musk is full of shit, part 4258Alistair said:Musk is backing out of the Twitter deal.
https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/15337958131299164171 -
Not sure. As I said on the last thread, if he soldiers on with just a small majority, what can they do about it, except change the rules, force another vote, and get the same outcome?turbotubbs said:
Technically correct but in the real world a majority of one means its all over really quickly.Scott_xP said:Culture Sec Nadine Dorries tells our @BethRigby she’s “not worried at all” about the vote today calling it a “distraction”. She adds a “majority of one” is enough to move on.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/15338039357602529281 -
According to the BBC, a majority of those who vote. But DYOR…biggles said:Does “no confidence” need a majority of those who vote, or a majority over all? If I was payroll I might find it hard to get back….
1 -
The current line being briefed by No 10 that 'a victory by one vote is enough' suggests that they are belatedly realising they've got a problem.8
-
Smarkets.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Where?Pulpstar said:Pray there's no abstentions, I've taken
Boris wins by 100+ @ 4.0 £40
& 131+ MPs No confidence @ 1.56 £90.
It's almost an arb with abstention & a small risk if the vote is exactly 130 - 229 I think...
Current prices are 1.54 & 3.9 so tit's just over a 90% book with in my view less than 10% chance of "middle risk".
https://smarkets.com/event/42757771/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/2022/06/06/20-00/no-confidence-votes-against-johnson
https://smarkets.com/event/42752300/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/2023/01/01/00-00/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-margin-20220 -
I reckon there will be abstentions, especially from the Cabinet.Pulpstar said:Pray there's no abstentions, I've taken
Boris wins by 100+ @ 4.0 £40
& 131+ MPs No confidence @ 1.56 £90.
It's almost an arb with abstention & a small risk if the vote is exactly 130 - 229 I think...0 -
On the coverage, isn't this just the self-censoring BBC self-censoring as per any day with D in it? Been doing it wrt twitter for years and years.bondegezou said:
As I understand it...Aslan said:People the other day were asking for examples of the BBC being too woke. Well how about this article?
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61701908
It is about the reaction to alleged inflammatory statements about Islam by a BJP politician but... the news organization does not actually say what the statement is. Because heaven above a global news organization report the factual root of the story.
What was the actual offending statement? In response to Muslims mocking Hindu deities she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
https://www.opindia.com/2022/05/islamists-issue-death-threats-to-nupur-sharma-prophet-muhammad-aisha-what-islamic-scriptures-say/
Now these are things that are ACTUALLY in the Koran and most trusted Hadith. So factually reporting a non-Muslim saying what Muslims actually believe is now too politically incorrect to be reported, even if it at the core of a major news story.
Aisha's age is not in the Koran. There are hadith that give ages, but there isn't a consensus over their accuracy. So, that's not something that is believed by all Muslims. Plenty believe she was older (15, 19, etc.).
Wording around the Earth being flat is somewhat ambiguous and contested. That's not something that is believed by most Muslims.
The winged horse is in the Koran, although it's a winged horse-like beast, it's not necessarily a winged horse. Tradition has it as more of a chimera.
The problem is that such editorial cowardliness is that we cannot judge the story - is the outrage correct, performative or trivial?
It renders the media outlet useless, and it rewards - rather than laughs at - the trivial outrage-monger.
Back between 2004 and 2006 there was a superb blog by a Saudi expat called The Religious Policeman, who had a "Muslim Offence Level" indicator. Perhaps we need to bring it back.
http://muttawa.blogspot.com/0 -
Indeed. And it's a mistake for anyone to assume that HMQ will take heed of the CP internal processes, either tonight's vote or a subsequent leadership election. The Conservative Party is just a here-today-gone-tomorrow marriage of convenience embracing a broad spectrum of political positions. Boris could very easily break it apart over his own survival but could remain PM until he loses an election if he chooses.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
And what sort of election would that turn out to be? Tories rent asunder but no majority for any other party. The morning after Boris is still in Downing Street and shaping up to face the new HoC...
Now, that's what I call a constitutional crisis.0 -
If Musk’s aim was to destroy Twitter’s reputation in the eyes of investors / analysts, he has done a fantastic job. That might have been his main aim after allFarooq said:
Elon Musk is full of shit, part 4258Alistair said:Musk is backing out of the Twitter deal.
https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/1533795813129916417
0 -
-
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/15338040699947663360 -
With any luck we will never have to listen a single word that passes from Dorries's lips by the end of the week.Cookie said:
For whose benefit is Nadine tweeting? Surely no-one's mind is going to be made up by a tweet from Nadine? This strikes me as a tweet that is all cost, no benefit.Cyclefree said:I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.
It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.
Once again, I am amazed by the way those in the public eye feel unable to maintain a dignified silence on Twitter.1 -
I would have thought that if more than 1/3 ie more than 120 vote against Boris, then that would leave him in a rather difficult position...0
-
They’ve been caught on the hop, similar to Maggie in Paris and her refusal to actively campaign in person for the leadership ballot.Richard_Nabavi said:The current line being briefed by No 10 that 'a victory by one vote is enough' suggests that they are belatedly realising they've got a problem.
It really does appear that the government didn’t think this was going to happen today. That doesn’t bode well for Boris.1 -
There weren't any with Theresa May.Heathener said:
I reckon there will be abstentions, especially from the Cabinet.Pulpstar said:Pray there's no abstentions, I've taken
Boris wins by 100+ @ 4.0 £40
& 131+ MPs No confidence @ 1.56 £90.
It's almost an arb with abstention & a small risk if the vote is exactly 130 - 229 I think...
MPs don't tend to abstain on this sort of thing.2 -
He won't have to resign at all. He can face a VoNC in the Commons and, if he loses, call a general election and, if it turns out to be inconclusive, stay on and wait for something to turn up. An asteroid strike, maybe.Nigel_Foremain said:
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?0 -
Isn't that kind if what happened with Peel and the Tories over the Corn Laws?Alphabet_Soup said:
Indeed. And it's a mistake for anyone to assume that HMQ will take heed of the CP internal processes, either tonight's vote or a subsequent leadership election. The Conservative Party is just a here-today-gone-tomorrow marriage of convenience embracing a broad spectrum of political positions. Boris could very easily break it apart over his own survival but could remain PM until he loses an election if he chooses.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
And what sort of election would that turn out to be? Tories rent asunder but no majority for any other party. The morning after Boris is still in Downing Street and shaping up to face the new HoC...
Now, that's what I call a constitutional crisis.0 -
It is conventional for a departing leader to stay on as PM while a new one is elected. In that context, the PM has the confidence of the majority party (because it's on a time-limited basis). There is no need for the PM to resign immediately.Nigel_Foremain said:
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If Johnson refuses to ever resign after losing the party's VONC, then we are in uncharted territory, but presumably his own party would then VONC him in the Commons and he's gone. The new leader (or temporary leader) from the party then goes to the Queen and says "I can command a majority in the House."0 -
Will we have a more ridiculous candidate for leader than Sam Gyimah in 2019? Matt Hancock perhaps…0
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At the same time as really bad news about Binance was released. Shocked, shocked I tell you.FrancisUrquhart said:
Crypto pumping....Benpointer said:
FTSE100's up.RobD said:Just signed on. Have I missed much?
0 -
There is also the ‘negative’ side of the coin.AlistairM said:
Surely if you are any Cabinet member and you fancy being PM then your best chance is to get rid of the current PM. There are a lot in Cabinet who clearly want to be PM. Therefore if you want the ball to come lose from the back of the ruck your should be declaring your support and voting to get rid. I don't see any other logic.HYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
let’s say you are a Red Wall MP and you know the most likely alternatives are Hunt or Sunak. You know the former essentially means you are gone because he’s a slippery fuck who your Brexit voters won’t trust (which, by the way, is the feedback I hear from anyone whose had any dealings with him ie clever but slippery). He’s also likely to be too pro-Remain.
Sunak might have been the default choice a few months back but faces the same problems as you had with BJ ie got a FPN and there have been questions raised over his conduct.
In that case, the ‘safe’ option might be to stick with BJ.
0 -
He is toast, a goner, an ex parrot, and that outcome is stonking valuenumbertwelve said:
They’ve been caught on the hop, similar to Maggie in Paris and her refusal to actively campaign in person for the leadership ballot.Richard_Nabavi said:The current line being briefed by No 10 that 'a victory by one vote is enough' suggests that they are belatedly realising they've got a problem.
It really does appear that the government didn’t think this was going to happen today. That doesn’t bode well for Boris.0 -
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?RochdalePioneers said:Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/15338040699947663360 -
No I don't think this is plausible. If he tries this one on a) the Queen won't play his silly games - she just isn't like that b) the tory Party can instantly appoint a caretaker leader - presumably the Deputy PM - whom the Queen will call to form a Gov't. Then they will hold the leadership election.Alphabet_Soup said:
He won't have to resign at all. He can face a VoNC in the Commons and, if he loses, call a general election and, if it turns out to be inconclusive, stay on and wait for something to turn up. An asteroid strike, maybe.Nigel_Foremain said:
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Might be worth having a punt on Dominic Raab if you think Johnson could try this stunt.
1 -
It would bugger up the betting if she resigns at 5pm and says she wants him out, I suspect.Heathener said:
She nodded in agreement with Sir Keir Starmer's evisceration of the PM in the Commons.HYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
I don't like her but I think she's appalled by Johnson.
2 -
oh for the days of stalking horse candidates!0
-
They knew about this yesterday, and held a strategy meeting last nightRichard_Nabavi said:The current line being briefed by No 10 that 'a victory by one vote is enough' suggests that they are belatedly realising they've got a problem.
0 -
Someone intending to send asylum seekers to Rwanda is unlikely to be offended by rule breakingHeathener said:
She nodded in agreement with Sir Keir Starmer's evisceration of the PM in the Commons.HYUFD said:All the main Cabinet ministers now tweeted they are voting for Boris tonight except...Priti Patel
I don't like her but I think she's appalled by Johnson.0 -
Tesla YTD: -40%MrEd said:
If Musk’s aim was to destroy Twitter’s reputation in the eyes of investors / analysts, he has done a fantastic job. That might have been his main aim after allFarooq said:
Elon Musk is full of shit, part 4258Alistair said:Musk is backing out of the Twitter deal.
https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/1533795813129916417
Twitter YTD: -9%0 -
Correct but....only as long as the Con MPs vote against the government in a Commons VONC. This scenario won't happen, where Boris just stays until, but is not unconstitutional.Nigel_Foremain said:
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.algarkirk said:
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):TheValiant said:
I don't believe he has a choice.Jonathan said:If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Boris is PM until he isn't.
He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE.
Appointment and remaining are different things.
He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons.
If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
It is not for HM the Queen to do for Tory MPs what they want in a secret ballot but won't vote for in public. Why on earth should she do their dirty work for them.
0 -
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
·
21m
Nadine Dorries and JRM currently leading the charge at Westminster to rally support for Boris. Needs more senior cabinet support than that. Tory MPs noticing.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/15338080269556981772 -
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.GIN1138 said:
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?RochdalePioneers said:Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
Won't affect tonight, but it is funny.
https://twitter.com/MarcusJBall/status/15338040699947663360
