MOE stuff at the front, and surely at least half of those will not stand and we do not know how to redistribute their support. With no clear front-runner, there is no reason for rivals to stay their supporters' hands.
To the extent anyone wants to back Raab as stand-in PM, this poll probably makes this more likely by discouraging him from running.
Though Wallace already starting to emerge as John Major 2 to Hunt's Heseltine if Boris is ousted as Thatcher was in 1990
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.
If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.
If the Rebel Alliance does have 150 in the bag I think it's all over, the Brexit Spartans will be in that grouping and they have the vast majority of other backbenchers on side too. It just needs 30-40 payroll MPs to break in their favour and it's all over, and I think that's almost guaranteed to happen.
I think Alistair Meeks is correct. In fact, once it becomes clear that Boris won't win, there may be plenty of MP's rushing to abandon a sinking ship, and the margin of defeat may be even bigger.
Yes, if Boris can't get public support above 150 by voting time I don't see how he doesn't lose big time. It could end up being a rout with only 100-120 in favour.
I suspect the PMs team have no real idea of the level of support. Why would you have any qualms about lying about your support for the PM?
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
So what would happen then? Conservatives VONC (internal) Johnson. A new leader is appointed but then Johnson refuses to resign as Prime Minister.
What does the Commons do (if anything)? What can they do? Appreciating they could make up something new as an out.....?
They VONC him. Easy. The new leader (permanent or temporary) of the Conservative party is then invited to the palace.
So a VONC in Parliament DOESN'T lead to a General Election then? Jim Callaghan would like a word....... (And it begs the question, what DOES it lead to? Nothing? Why even have the process then?) (And therefore, WHAT IF, given you state that the Commons would VONC Johnson, the opposition parties then vote against the motion! With (say) 50 Conservative Johnson loyalests he wins the VONC in the House.... I mean... we all know SKS and Davey want him to stay)
A VONC in Parliament leads to the PM going. The PM can then recommend to the Crown that someone else can command a majority in the Commons and that person is then asked to be PM. The outgoing PM should only ask for a dissolution if that is not the case. In the highly unlikely event that Johnson played silly buggers and said no-one can command a majority in the House when in fact someone could, the Queen('s advisers) would ignore the outgoing PM's position. (This would be messy, but in keeping with the constitution.)
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Hmm, that doesn't take into account the July 2021 unlockdown which other countries didn't have and the non-measures for Omicron. The government also stared down a lot of the dickhead scientists on their own committees and took accusations of being in favour of people dying when they did it too. On COVID the government, IMO, has got a very good record wrt unlockdown, one of the best globally.
Our record on deaths is not that bad, either. After being the “worst in the world” in popular imagination, it turns out we are kinda middling. Despite some challenging circs
BTW when checking these death stats just now, I noticed that Taiwan - yes, Taiwan! - is having a nasty wave. 53,000 cases today, 150 deaths. In the end Covid comes for everyone
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
I doubt that Brexit would have won in 2016 if Johnson (who probably has no strong views on the subject and supported Leave in order to further his own career) hadn't fronted the campaign. So I think you can definitely blame him for putting the country in the shitty position of having to implement a policy built on mutually inconsistent promises. He is the most destructive politician to have ever led this country, we will still be clearing up his mess ten years from now.
As I’ve said before, if you hate Brexit, you’re gonna hate Boris. So there’s little point in our arguing in that instance, as we so widely disagree
Also, you’re wrong on his supposedly unprincipled support for Brexit. I have it on very good authority that he meant it. He was genuinely torn (hence the two columns, to clear his mind) and in the end, he decided it had to be Leave. Of course, this benefited his career, but that was a happy by-product, not the purpose
Since he's rarely, if ever, told the truth in his life, what on earth does "on good authority" mean when talking about his mindset about a political issue ?
The only conflict between the two options would likely be any difficulty in working out which would best benefit his career.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
We didn't "have" to keep the mask mandates. We never needed the mask mandates. The government as much asadmitted this when they gave the justification as words to the effect of "a visible sign of the seriousness of the situation".
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
I think Alistair Meeks is correct. In fact, once it becomes clear that Boris won't win, there may be plenty of MP's rushing to abandon a sinking ship, and the margin of defeat may be even bigger.
Yes, if Boris can't get public support above 150 by voting time I don't see how he doesn't lose big time. It could end up being a rout with only 100-120 in favour.
I suspect the PMs team have no real idea of the level of support. Why would you have any qualms about lying about your support for the PM?
Hedging your bets by announcing you support him and then voting against would appeal to some. Perhaps many....
Nah its very straight forward and is #4 on your list.
There is a VONC in the Tory Government and Johnson is out. But then, since the Tories still actually have a stonking majority in Parliament, whoever they choose to be the new leader also becomes PM. It is a no brainer for Tory MPs to support a VONC as it costs them nothing and there is no need for or risk of a GE.
All those talking about some sort of constitutional crisis are overegging it big time.
I do agree, and I'm just playing games here, but why would this VONC not lead to a General Election, but the same VONC in March 1979 would?
I mean, we know its because its being used as a mechanism to get Johnson out, but the opposition parties must feel pretty pissed off that they're being asked to VONC the government of the day, only to be told (after its won) that, "Nawh. Piss off. We didn't mean it like it was worded. We DO have confidence in the government... just not Johnson's one. Tell the ghost of Jim Callaghan he's an effing bell end! He didn't need to resign, or call a GE. What a larf!".
Someone above said they couldn't see the Queen being dragged in..... so why drag in the Labour party?
Because the VONC simply means the removal of the Government, not a negation of the previous election results. It comes back to the point that we do not vote for a Government or a PM. We vote for MPs and they then choose who they want to be PM, who in turn then appoints his Government.
When they VONC a Government all the MPs are doing is taking back the power to choose a new PM. So long as someone can command a stable majority at that point they have the right to form a new Government and there is no need for a GE. When Callaghan lost in 1979 the Parliament at that point could not provide a new PM with a stable majority and as a result there was a GE.
With a majority of 80 there has to be a very good chance that the Tories can unite behind a new PM and he or she will command a stable majority.
Nah its very straight forward and is #4 on your list.
There is a VONC in the Tory Government and Johnson is out. But then, since the Tories still actually have a stonking majority in Parliament, whoever they choose to be the new leader also becomes PM. It is a no brainer for Tory MPs to support a VONC as it costs them nothing and there is no need for or risk of a GE.
All those talking about some sort of constitutional crisis are overegging it big time.
I do agree, and I'm just playing games here, but why would this VONC not lead to a General Election, but the same VONC in March 1979 would?
I mean, we know its because its being used as a mechanism to get Johnson out, but the opposition parties must feel pretty pissed off that they're being asked to VONC the government of the day, only to be told (after its won) that, "Nawh. Piss off. We didn't mean it like it was worded. We DO have confidence in the government... just not Johnson's one. Tell the ghost of Jim Callaghan he's an effing bell end! He didn't need to resign, or call a GE. What a larf!".
Someone above said they couldn't see the Queen being dragged in..... so why drag in the Labour party?
"When we said drag them through the lobbies in favour of Johnson, we never imagined we meant the Labour party"
Since he's rarely, if ever, told the truth in his life, what on earth does "on good authority" mean when talking about his mindset about a political issue ?
The only conflict between the two options would likely be any difficulty in working out which would best benefit his career.
Yes, I'm pretty sure that the famous 'two articles' thing wasn't about deciding on whether leaving the EU was better for the country than remaining, but about which made the better dog-whistle to further his career. And, to be fair, on that ground he made the right decision.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
Exactly right, and the hope is enough MPs make the calculation that a resounding defeat is the safest way of averting that
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.
If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.
Do you think that flowed from inner conviction, or wanting to talk about that rather than anything else?
Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
Nah its very straight forward and is #4 on your list.
There is a VONC in the Tory Government and Johnson is out. But then, since the Tories still actually have a stonking majority in Parliament, whoever they choose to be the new leader also becomes PM. It is a no brainer for Tory MPs to support a VONC as it costs them nothing and there is no need for or risk of a GE.
All those talking about some sort of constitutional crisis are overegging it big time.
I do agree, and I'm just playing games here, but why would this VONC not lead to a General Election, but the same VONC in March 1979 would?
I mean, we know its because its being used as a mechanism to get Johnson out, but the opposition parties must feel pretty pissed off that they're being asked to VONC the government of the day, only to be told (after its won) that, "Nawh. Piss off. We didn't mean it like it was worded. We DO have confidence in the government... just not Johnson's one. Tell the ghost of Jim Callaghan he's an effing bell end! He didn't need to resign, or call a GE. What a larf!".
Someone above said they couldn't see the Queen being dragged in..... so why drag in the Labour party?
Because the VONC simply means the removal of the Government, not a negation of the previous election results. It comes back to the point that we do not vote for a Government or a PM. We vote for MPs and they then choose who they want to be PM, who in turn then appoints his Government.
When they VONC a Government all the MPs are doing is taking back the power to choose a new PM. So long as someone can command a stable majority at that point they have the right to form a new Government and there is no need for a GE. When Callaghan lost in 1979 the Parliament at that point could not provide a new PM with a stable majority and as a result there was a GE.
With a majority of 80 there has to be a very good chance that the Tories can unite behind a new PM and he or she will command a stable majority.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
They'd have voted for any sort of Brexit rather than Corbyn. The 'get Brexit done' worked because the HoC was trying to prevent Brexit and there was a significant constituency for getting Brexit done, not because the public had strong views of one flavour Brexit over another. People knew Boris was a bumbling oaf and a buffoon and a chancer. But they still rated these as lesser flaws than those of Corbyn.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
You may be right, but I don't agree. If Boris hangs on with a tiny victory, the Tory Party will find a way of doing him in if he doesn't go voluntarily. He is indeed ruthless, but the Tory machine is equally ruthless. They don't like losing elections.
Anyway, our disagreement may well be moot, as I wouldn't be at all surprise if he loses tonight.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Ah, but @Northern_Al - the days of this life are numbered, for us all
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Eh? We were certainly ahead of France as I recall. They only dropped their public transport masking rule week before last.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
Exactly right, and the hope is enough MPs make the calculation that a resounding defeat is the safest way of averting that
telling untruths may be reprehensible, but it doesn't destroy nations.
Bad economic policy does that. Or no economic policy.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Ah, but @Northern_Al - the days of this life are numbered, for us all
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
I think Alistair Meeks is correct. In fact, once it becomes clear that Boris won't win, there may be plenty of MP's rushing to abandon a sinking ship, and the margin of defeat may be even bigger.
Yes, if Boris can't get public support above 150 by voting time I don't see how he doesn't lose big time. It could end up being a rout with only 100-120 in favour.
I suspect the PMs team have no real idea of the level of support. Why would you have any qualms about lying about your support for the PM?
Hedging your bets by announcing you support him and then voting against would appeal to some. Perhaps many....
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.
If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.
Do you think that flowed from inner conviction, or wanting to talk about that rather than anything else?
Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
All we can say is that the policy seems to have nearly unanimous support in the Government, among Conservative MPs and the opposition front and back benches.
That's a pretty fair assessment and one I largely agree with but I would make 2 points.
Firstly, and critically, where is the economic competence that the government is so sorely lacking going to come from? The only one who might have offered it is Rishi but he has been holed below the water line by his own FPN.
Secondly, the next 18 months are going to be very difficult, no matter who is leader. A whole lot of grief is coming and the government is going to struggle very badly with numerous things out of its control. Is this really going to set up any new leader for the next election or should Boris have to take this grief for now and change leaders later?
If I was a Tory MP tonight I really don't know what I would do. There are no good choices, to be honest. Its what is the least bad.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
Exactly right, and the hope is enough MPs make the calculation that a resounding defeat is the safest way of averting that
telling untruths may be reprehensible, but it doesn't destroy nations.
Bad economic policy does that. Or no economic policy.
And that's why Johnson is getting ousted.
No it really isn't. Even if you think tonight's ballot should be about economic policy, there is no reason to believe it will be.
Just returning to the fray after a long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
No, I don't think it will be fatal if Boris wins by one vote. That's what MPs need to understand. Boris will cling on until he's destroyed the nation and the party. He has no loyalty to anyone but himself.
Agree with this. Look at the history of the man. He'll cling on for dear life. If the PCP want rid they need to take their opportunity now.
I think Alistair Meeks is correct. In fact, once it becomes clear that Boris won't win, there may be plenty of MP's rushing to abandon a sinking ship, and the margin of defeat may be even bigger.
Yes, if Boris can't get public support above 150 by voting time I don't see how he doesn't lose big time. It could end up being a rout with only 100-120 in favour.
I suspect the PMs team have no real idea of the level of support. Why would you have any qualms about lying about your support for the PM?
And conversely why wouldn't you shout from the rooftops your support if you meant it.
I think Alistair Meeks is correct. In fact, once it becomes clear that Boris won't win, there may be plenty of MP's rushing to abandon a sinking ship, and the margin of defeat may be even bigger.
Yes, if Boris can't get public support above 150 by voting time I don't see how he doesn't lose big time. It could end up being a rout with only 100-120 in favour.
I suspect the PMs team have no real idea of the level of support. Why would you have any qualms about lying about your support for the PM?
Hedging your bets by announcing you support him and then voting against would appeal to some. Perhaps many....
For some reason I can't quite put my finger on, today I have in mind Edward Ratchett, the victim in Murder On The Orient Express.....
Forgive me for asking, but why should those entitled prats from the media be allowed near to get their leaks?
Democracy? Informing the public? In any case, how is this a police matter?
Democracy does not involve journalists listening outside of committee rooms, or waiting down the corridors for their grasses to tip them off.
I assume the party have asked for stepped up security.
Yes it does. And who is "the party"? Number 10, CCHQ, the 1922, Brady? Would this not be a matter for the Speaker?
You really believe that stopping journalists evesdropping is not democratic? Really? On what grounds?
Note - this is NOT the freedom of the press. This is allowing the conservative party, or if you insist the 1922 committee and backbench MP's to listen to the PM without others overhearing. I see NOTHING undemocratic about that.
The little grasses can all run outside after and find their handlers just the same. No one is stopping that.
Just returning to the fray after a one long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Ah, but @Northern_Al - the days of this life are numbered, for us all
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
You what?
Ecclesiastes! You philistine
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.
If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.
Do you think that flowed from inner conviction, or wanting to talk about that rather than anything else?
Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
All we can say is that the policy seems to have nearly unanimous support in the Government, among Conservative MPs and the opposition front and back benches.
So removing Johnson would have zero impact upon it.
Just returning to the fray after a one long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Ah, but @Northern_Al - the days of this life are numbered, for us all
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
Since he's rarely, if ever, told the truth in his life, what on earth does "on good authority" mean when talking about his mindset about a political issue ?
The only conflict between the two options would likely be any difficulty in working out which would best benefit his career.
Yes, I'm pretty sure that the famous 'two articles' thing wasn't about deciding on whether leaving the EU was better for the country than remaining, but about which made the better dog-whistle to further his career. And, to be fair, on that ground he made the right decision.
There was a rumour flying around recently that the Telegraph informed Boris that it would cut ties with him and refuse to publish his articles if he came out for Remain. If true, that puts the two-articles thing in a different light - maybe the pro-Leave one was a later draft written under duress.
I know loyalty is the Conservatives' secret weapon, but wouldn't he have been hoping for rather more than a third of the MPs to back him publicly?
It wouldn't surprise me if that 121 figure declines following his speech to the 1922. It reminds me of the old joke, "we opened poorly but rallied the troops and got steadily worse from there."
Since he's rarely, if ever, told the truth in his life, what on earth does "on good authority" mean when talking about his mindset about a political issue ?
The only conflict between the two options would likely be any difficulty in working out which would best benefit his career.
Yes, I'm pretty sure that the famous 'two articles' thing wasn't about deciding on whether leaving the EU was better for the country than remaining, but about which made the better dog-whistle to further his career. And, to be fair, on that ground he made the right decision.
He did. Whichever way the Ref went he needed Leave on the CV for his leadership chances. I really don't understand how anyone who follows politics can believe anything drives Boris Johnson other than the interests and urges of Boris Johnson.
The other point on @Scott_xP's thread is also valid. If loyalty was the Tories secret weapon it has died of neglect. 6 of the last 8 leaders have been undermined and destroyed by factions within a party that is increasingly both ungovernable and incapable of governing. Boris has reduced these pressures by giving them a significant majority but the lessons of May's government in particular are loud and clear. A Conservative party with a small majority is simply not capable of providing stable government.Any new leader is going to have this problem too. The Tories need quite a long time in opposition to learn how to work together again.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
That's an exceptionally generous assessment. Ukraine I'll grant you,
Ukraine he was an effective voice for a policy that had been in place for eight years initiated under and continued by his two predecessors……
To an extent, yes, but that doesn't alter the fact that in the lead-up to the invasion Britain was foremost in giving Ukraine practical help.
We’ve been training the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That’s a significant element of why they’ve been running rings round the Russians. Since the invasion started other countries (notably the US & Poland, absolutely, and the Baltic states relatively) have been giving them more kit than us. Because of the work started 8 years ago they’ve known how to use it effectively - but Johnson hasn’t been much more than an effective front man for a well established UK Govt policy tracing to Cameron and May.
If anyones fingetprints are on this it’s theirs & Wallace’s.
I would say that Johnson has taken the most pro-Ukraine path possible for pushing forward the existing policy.
Do you think that flowed from inner conviction, or wanting to talk about that rather than anything else?
Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
All we can say is that the policy seems to have nearly unanimous support in the Government, among Conservative MPs and the opposition front and back benches.
So removing Johnson would have zero impact upon it.
Yes, I think it would have no effect on the UK-Ukraine policy. A new leader might well put some extra support in, just to make the situation clear to Russia etc...
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Florida? Texas? South Dakota? LOL
@moonshine was arguing that if Hunt had been PM, we'd still have an indoor mask mandate.
I was merely pointing out that it would be unlikely we'd still have one, given not even California or France have them.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
"Stop Lying in Politics Ltd"??? Is this bloke a nutter?
Absolutely and totally nuts. BUT, the evidence he has gathered is not in dispute. The news footage of the PM telling everyone he nearly died is all out there, and the data from the hospital is an FOI release from their board.
As always, look past the messenger at the evidence they are presenting.
This kind of nonsense blunts actual valid criticisms. It's very Aesopian.
What nonsense. I have no interest in the opinion of a bloke running a crusading "truth" movement like this. But I am interested in what he has found. If it was his opinion then less so, but its a FOI statement by the Chief Operating Officer of the hospital.
Why on earth does it matter if it's not literally true that the NHS saved his life? As I said before, that's standard boilerplate genuflection before the national religion.
Only matters because he lied. But we know he lies all the time so I take your point.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Eh? We were certainly ahead of France as I recall. They only dropped their public transport masking rule week before last.
In England face masks indoors were dropped on January 27 (except TfL) and the requirement to self isolate was dropped on 23 February. Scotland, Wales and NI were later which is probably where that date comes from.
Thanks but don’t know at this point. I think Steve Barclay (never seems to get on any list!) could be interesting and has a solid back story. Would definitely not support Truss or Raab. Relaxed about Javid and Wallace. Ditto Hunt.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
"Stop Lying in Politics Ltd"??? Is this bloke a nutter?
Absolutely and totally nuts. BUT, the evidence he has gathered is not in dispute. The news footage of the PM telling everyone he nearly died is all out there, and the data from the hospital is an FOI release from their board.
As always, look past the messenger at the evidence they are presenting.
This kind of nonsense blunts actual valid criticisms. It's very Aesopian.
What nonsense. I have no interest in the opinion of a bloke running a crusading "truth" movement like this. But I am interested in what he has found. If it was his opinion then less so, but its a FOI statement by the Chief Operating Officer of the hospital.
Why on earth does it matter if it's not literally true that the NHS saved his life? As I said before, that's standard boilerplate genuflection before the national religion.
Only matters because he lied. But we know he lies all the time so I take your point.
I think this is a red herring. He has demonstrably lied about a lot of shit. Including in parliament, that's obvious to almost all. But he was sick enough to go to hospital at a time when we didn't know an awful lot about covid. He was also in the high risk category, a fat man in his late fifties. Not a great combo. @Foxy would know more than me, but I am not sure he'd be a great candidate from proning. So maybe on this one thing, cut him some slack. Doesn't stop him being a lier, but stopped clocks and all that.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
They'd have voted for any sort of Brexit rather than Corbyn. The 'get Brexit done' worked because the HoC was trying to prevent Brexit and there was a significant constituency for getting Brexit done, not because the public had strong views of one flavour Brexit over another. People knew Boris was a bumbling oaf and a buffoon and a chancer. But they still rated these as lesser flaws than those of Corbyn.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
You're putting the cart before the horse there - Boris only won his election because he solemnly swore he had solved Brexit with the ultimate Deal, which just needed rubber stamping by the electorate. Had people realized it would turn out to be this sub-optimal they might well have voted Corbyn anyway.
They'd have voted for any sort of Brexit rather than Corbyn. The 'get Brexit done' worked because the HoC was trying to prevent Brexit and there was a significant constituency for getting Brexit done, not because the public had strong views of one flavour Brexit over another. People knew Boris was a bumbling oaf and a buffoon and a chancer. But they still rated these as lesser flaws than those of Corbyn.
Some truth here. But I'm not sure he'd have won on a No Deal ticket. Nor was he. Hence why he signed up to the deal he now seeks to tear up. The one that splits NI from the UK. The one that "no UK Prime Minister could ever accept".
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Hmm, that doesn't take into account the July 2021 unlockdown which other countries didn't have and the non-measures for Omicron. The government also stared down a lot of the dickhead scientists on their own committees and took accusations of being in favour of people dying when they did it too. On COVID the government, IMO, has got a very good record wrt unlockdown, one of the best globally.
I don't disagree.
BUT THAT WASN'T THE POINT I WAS MAKING!
@moonshine argued that we'd still have mask mandates if Hunt was PM. My argument was that as even the European countries has gotten rid of theirs, I doubt we'd be going out on a limb
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
Indoor mask mandates lifted dates:
February 4 - Denmark March 14 - France April 1 - UK April 4 - Germany
I'm not sure you can claim we were ahead of the pack at removing restrictions.
Hmm, that doesn't take into account the July 2021 unlockdown which other countries didn't have and the non-measures for Omicron. The government also stared down a lot of the dickhead scientists on their own committees and took accusations of being in favour of people dying when they did it too. On COVID the government, IMO, has got a very good record wrt unlockdown, one of the best globally.
Japan: way fewer COVID deaths and zero lockdowns. That's a good record. The UK's? No.
Youd assume he was safe as houses from that, since surely not every MP who has failed to declare for him is against and he only needs a few score more, but like 2019 even the obvious result is not trusted until the fat lady sings.
Nah its very straight forward and is #4 on your list.
There is a VONC in the Tory Government and Johnson is out. But then, since the Tories still actually have a stonking majority in Parliament, whoever they choose to be the new leader also becomes PM. It is a no brainer for Tory MPs to support a VONC as it costs them nothing and there is no need for or risk of a GE.
All those talking about some sort of constitutional crisis are overegging it big time.
I do agree, and I'm just playing games here, but why would this VONC not lead to a General Election, but the same VONC in March 1979 would?
I mean, we know its because its being used as a mechanism to get Johnson out, but the opposition parties must feel pretty pissed off that they're being asked to VONC the government of the day, only to be told (after its won) that, "Nawh. Piss off. We didn't mean it like it was worded. We DO have confidence in the government... just not Johnson's one. Tell the ghost of Jim Callaghan he's an effing bell end! He didn't need to resign, or call a GE. What a larf!".
Someone above said they couldn't see the Queen being dragged in..... so why drag in the Labour party?
In March 1979, it was clear no-one else could command a majority of the Commons. Now, it would be clear someone could.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Perhaps. But more likely he’d have hosed the north with cash instead of having to blow it on furlough and the like. What is more interesting is how things would be if we had a different PM during the pandemic. Hunt or Starmer say.
I think there’s a good chance we’d still have an indoor mask mandate. I also think we’d have weaker international sanctions on Russia and no guarantee that the Biden Admin would have been as confident in pushing as much heavy arms to Ukraine as they have done. In many ways I think we were fortunate to have him in place for those two key moments, even despite the chaos, fiscal incontinence and integrity issues. All the same, time to go.
No EU country or US state currently has an indoor mask mandate.
So while I think you can argue he would have been slower to remove them, I think it's pushing it to claim that Britain would be out on a limb as the only place in the developed world to still have a mask mandate.
Britain was ahead of the pack in Europe getting rid of restrictions and most of Europe (and a good chunk of the UK) thought we were being mad and reckless. Even today things are still very late 2020 in much of developed Asia. Don’t underestimate how much Britain moving on from covid when it did gave cover to many others to follow a few months later.
We were ahead of the pack, but only just. We were - what - a few weeks behind Denmark, but less than a month ahead of France and Germany. (Pretty much everyone in Europe got rid of the remaining mask mandates in April of this year.)
Under Johnson, we also had some of the worst restrictions in the developed world about meeting with friends outdoors.
Now might Hunt have been worse. Yep, he might have been. But that's a might.
But I would suggest that Johnson's inaction around the start of the pandemic allowed a couple of "doubles" that meant that we had to keep the mask mandates significanlty longer than should have been the case.
We didn't "have" to keep the mask mandates. We never needed the mask mandates. The government as much asadmitted this when they gave the justification as words to the effect of "a visible sign of the seriousness of the situation".
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
Well, I've advised selling Hunt (among others) for some time. I can't see how he could possibly win a members' vote.
With that said - and even though I have a lot of personal affection for Ms Dorries - I am sceptical of the story as described.
Why?
Because Mr Hunt did not hesitate at any moment during the last three years to appear on World at One to give his views on how things would have been handled, had he been in charge. Yet he said nothing of these plans.
My guess, FWIW, is that he had a conversation with Ms Dorries, and that he mentioned the responses in the Far East, and that she is spinning that he advocated for these measures.
My (dim) recollection is that yes he did interfere in some way with the stockage of PPE. But I may be wrong.
Hunt buried the report on Exercise Cygnus (qv) which had recommended stockpiling PPE.
Stockpiling PPE is tricky. It does usually have an expiry date (e.g. nitrile gloves don't last forever in a box). You need a plan to keep it moving in and out. And somewhere to store it. And it costs. And you probably needed it once in a hundred years.
I can see why it was not done.
Why then did the VIP lot get to buy 5 years supply at a time, mostly of tat at that. Maximise teh loot no doubt as they knew it would be binned in any case.
Just returning to the fray after a one long liquid lunch. Boris is a goner, whether or not he wins tonight: his days are numbered.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
Ah, but @Northern_Al - the days of this life are numbered, for us all
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
You what?
Ecclesiastes! You philistine
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
The brexit he got done is like a string vest.
But he had no choice. Tosser MPs kept frustrating any other Brexit, because half of them secretly - or not so secretly - wanted to cancel it via a second vote. A treasonous and disastrous course of action
Boris saw that the only way to enact the will of the people (which we HAD to do) was to win a big election, thrash Corybn, get a large mandate, vote through the bloody thing. And lo, it came to pass. Thank god for that
You can of course say we should never have ended up in that invidious situation. But for that you can’t blame Boris, more like a string of idiot prime ministers before him, misjudging the mood of the British public, culminating with Cameron
I doubt that Brexit would have won in 2016 if Johnson (who probably has no strong views on the subject and supported Leave in order to further his own career) hadn't fronted the campaign. So I think you can definitely blame him for putting the country in the shitty position of having to implement a policy built on mutually inconsistent promises. He is the most destructive politician to have ever led this country, we will still be clearing up his mess ten years from now.
As I’ve said before, if you hate Brexit, you’re gonna hate Boris. So there’s little point in our arguing in that instance, as we so widely disagree
Fair enough, although disagreement is usually a fairly useful starting point if you want to have an argument with someone.
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(((Dan Hodges)))@DPJHodges1m
Theresa May arrives to hear Boris address the 1922. Fair to say she’s had worse days…
Three in five say Boris Johnson is no longer an asset to the Conservative Party
Is still an asset 30%
Is no longer an asset 60%
DK 10% https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1533826085732986881/photo/1
I couldn't see why this (admittedly hypothetical - we hope) VONC wouldn't mirror March 1979's VONC........
BTW when checking these death stats just now, I noticed that Taiwan - yes, Taiwan! - is having a nasty wave. 53,000 cases today, 150 deaths. In the end Covid comes for everyone
The only conflict between the two options would likely be any difficulty in working out which would best benefit his career.
I'd be surprised if fewer than 150 vote against him, and that would be fatal - whether immediately, or in a few weeks. I'd be even more surprised if some of those who have pledged support are not lying. After all, they are simply taking their lead from their boss, whose casual attitude to telling the truth has finally caught up with him. Why on earth should they be honest, when he's not?
When they VONC a Government all the MPs are doing is taking back the power to choose a new PM. So long as someone can command a stable majority at that point they have the right to form a new Government and there is no need for a GE. When Callaghan lost in 1979 the Parliament at that point could not provide a new PM with a stable majority and as a result there was a GE.
With a majority of 80 there has to be a very good chance that the Tories can unite behind a new PM and he or she will command a stable majority.
I assume the party have asked for stepped up security.
I wouldn't if Hunt were elected leader.
There's just something about him.
Of the three PMs involved I’d say Mrs May was most alert to the threat Russia presented, and most robust in her criticism. At least she didn’t appoint any scions of the KGB to the HoL!
People knew Boris was a bumbling oaf and a buffoon and a chancer. But they still rated these as lesser flaws than those of Corbyn.
We can but hope !
Anyway, our disagreement may well be moot, as I wouldn't be at all surprise if he loses tonight.
Remember now thy Creator in the days of thy youth, while the evil days come not, nor the years draw nigh, when thou shalt say, I have no pleasure in them;
While the sun, or the light, or the moon, or the stars, be not darkened, nor the clouds return after the rain: In the day when the keepers of the house shall tremble, and the strong men shall bow themselves, and the grinders cease because they are few, and those that look out of the windows be darkened, And the doors shall be shut in the streets, when the sound of the grinding is low, and he shall rise up at the voice of the bird, and all the daughters of musick shall be brought low;
Also when they shall be afraid of that which is high, and fears shall be in the way, and the almond tree shall flourish, and the grasshopper shall be a burden, and desire shall fail: because man goeth to his long home, and the mourners go about the streets: Or ever the silver cord be loosed, or the golden bowl be broken, or the pitcher be broken at the fountain, or the wheel broken at the cistern. Then shall the dust return to the earth as it was: and the spirit shall return unto God who gave it.
Vanity of vanities, saith the preacher; all is vanity.
Bad economic policy does that. Or no economic policy.
And that's why Johnson is getting ousted.
At this stage I cannot see the next PM not being one of:
1. Truss
2. Wallace
3. Javid
4. Raab: or
5. Mordaunt (long shot).
Firstly, and critically, where is the economic competence that the government is so sorely lacking going to come from? The only one who might have offered it is Rishi but he has been holed below the water line by his own FPN.
Secondly, the next 18 months are going to be very difficult, no matter who is leader. A whole lot of grief is coming and the government is going to struggle very badly with numerous things out of its control. Is this really going to set up any new leader for the next election or should Boris have to take this grief for now and change leaders later?
If I was a Tory MP tonight I really don't know what I would do. There are no good choices, to be honest. Its what is the least bad.
@TheScreamingEagles , I assume you are still favouring Hunt?
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533826075297517568
Said President Zelensky told him he wanted a “strong UK” this morning
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1533828835422220288
Note - this is NOT the freedom of the press. This is allowing the conservative party, or if you insist the 1922 committee and backbench MP's to listen to the PM without others overhearing. I see NOTHING undemocratic about that.
The little grasses can all run outside after and find their handlers just the same. No one is stopping that.
To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven:
A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant, and a time to pluck up that which is planted;
A time to kill, and a time to heal; a time to break down, and a time to build up;
A time to weep, and a time to laugh; a time to mourn, and a time to dance;
A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together; a time to embrace, and a time to refrain from embracing;
A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep, and a time to cast away;
A time to rend, and a time to sew; a time to keep silence, and a time to speak;
A time to love, and a time to hate; a time of war, and a time of peace.
But then Boris.
I beg to differ.
https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533830669264093185
I was merely pointing out that it would be unlikely we'd still have one, given not even California or France have them.
Supporting him with a consoling hand on the shoulder?
Dead Thread
BUT THAT WASN'T THE POINT I WAS MAKING!
@moonshine argued that we'd still have mask mandates if Hunt was PM. My argument was that as even the European countries has gotten rid of theirs, I doubt we'd be going out on a limb