New poll has 59% want CON MPs to vote to remove BoJo – politicalbetting.com

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New poll has 59% want CON MPs to vote to remove BoJo – politicalbetting.com

An Opinium poll carried out this morning finds 59% saying Tory MPs should vote to remove PM with 28% saying they should vote to keep him. There were 13% saying Don’t know.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?

TheWhiteRabbit

rottenborough said:

Nigelb said:

I wonder what prompted this ?

https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1533736317296812032
New- just seen an interesting email to MPs from Sir Graham Brady- who is running tonight’s confidence vote as chair of the 1922 committee. A big warning about it being confidential- and no pics of ballot papers to be taken or vote void

Allegedly, Team Big Dog has been demanding loyalists prove their loyalty by breaking the secrecy of the ballot.

Oh the laughs if Team Johnson void all their own supporters votes by demanding they try and take a sneaky photo!

Do you remember when we had that rule in place last leadership election? Again the rumour that BoJo was asking loyalists to prove it?

Pepperidge farm remembers.

Leon

“Bojo”?

Andy_JS

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Richard_Nabavi

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

Leon

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

It’s an attempt by Dorries to hobble Hunt before he even starts running

And I have to say, it is pretty damn effective. Ouch

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

I wonder about the 82 - are they payroll? Surely some we should focus on more than others?

Similar case for the rebels.

Selebian

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

This is why I think there's not only value, but also potential trading value in the odds on the VONC at present. Market likely to get twitchy later on unless there's a big increase in declared support.

Edit: I don't particularly put too much weight on the declarations. Wisest thing is to say things in private, but not take a public position. "Yes, of course I'm going to back you Boris" and "I totally agree, Jeremy. Can't wait for him to be gone. Hope you're the successor if he does". But with a lack of actual data, the betting could move fast, as we've already seen.

Richard_Nabavi

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

I wonder about the 82 - are they payroll? Surely some we should focus on more than others?

Similar case for the rebels.

Yes, the vast majority of them are payroll.

Roger

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

A good sign is when they start eating each other.

MISTY

If I was a potential leadership candidate I would be on the phone to Lord Frost, trying to get his endorsement.

williamglenn

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

How many MPs publicly backed Theresa May before her VONC? She survived by 200 to 117 in the vote.

Roger

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

They're holding out for a seat in the Lords. Expect them to show their hand shortly after afternoon tea.

StuartDickson

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?

No.

TheWhiteRabbit

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

I wonder about the 82 - are they payroll? Surely some we should focus on more than others?

Similar case for the rebels.

Yes, the vast majority of them are payroll.

Do we learn more from considering the others? Who are the swing votes?

Selebian

MISTY said:

If I was a potential leadership candidate I would be on the phone to Lord Frost, trying to get his endorsement.

I'd be wary of Frost publicly stating that I was great. Few months later he'd be saying I was awful and must be replaced.

MoonRabbit

Applicant said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

HYUFD said:

MoonRabbit said:

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

@PennyMordaunt
Today I will be attending Portsmouth’s commemoration service to remember the efforts and sacrifice of #DDay. Privilege to have met so many who took part and proud of #Portsmouth role. #DDay78

https://twitter.com/PennyMordaunt/status/1533727319466119169

Classy from our next PM....

Has due diligence been done on Mourdant? She would be a right wing leader, so not not a unifier in the party or someone whose idealism and instinct would be to tack to the centre?

There is no chance the membership will elect anyone who is not as committed to a hard Brexit as Johnson is, in fact they just want someone who is more pro low taxes and low spending than Johnson as well and tougher on immigration and ideally less carbon net zero obsessed.

So forget any leader winning who will be left of Johnson and anti Brexit

But Johnson is being sacked today because he has messed up Brexit - it’s too hard and business want it watered down. that’s the truth underlying all this isn’t it, Tories have no choice now but to install a government to give business the changes they want to Brexit, in order to ever win again?

Rubbish, you are deluded if you think the Tory membership will elect anyone who is not as pro hard a Brexit as Johnson if not more so.

That is the Tory voting coalition primarily now, hard Leavers and lose them to Farage again and they would be left with nothing

I’m DELUDED to see continued Brexit fault line in voters, MPs and party members, and deluded suspecting the new non Boris government may cuddle up to business again post Boris and tweak the current Brexit deal accordingly? 🙂

It won't as Tory members will not elect a leader who wants to align to EU regulations again and certainly not one who would restore free movement.

Let’s be clear what you are saying, because you are not being clear. None of the platforms laid out in the leadership election will look for improvements in current Brexit deal to help British business prosper and grow the economy? Or that some candidates will phrase it just like this, but then get splendidly rejected by MPs and Party Members for not swearing loyalty to keep Boris Brexit deal unscathed?

So the Tory party remains at distance from Businesses and businesses needs? it remains ravaged in Remainia voting areas where it now cannot compete?

You still think I’m deluded for thinking Brexit plays a part in this?

It will certainly play a part.

But it won't be the all-consuming issue that it was in 2019.

The new leader inherits two problems, and they need to make them go away. Firstly the party doesn’t currently have a credible economic strategy or direction. Secondly, it has a poll slump, particularly on the remain side of the Brexit fault line that definitely exists out there today (unless you what to challenge that as statement of fact).

The main thing determining problems 1 and 2 is Brexit, the current governments inability to challenge its own Brexit agreement and position - meaning the party is arms length from business and being able to compete and win the next general election.

The only way it can solve those two problems is make a move on its current inability to tweak its Brexit positions.

StuartDickson

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Tory civil war.
Absolutely delicious.

Selebian

Leon said:

“Bojo”?

Gojo!

MightyAlex

Richard_Nabavi said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

I wonder about the 82 - are they payroll? Surely some we should focus on more than others?

Similar case for the rebels.

Yes, the vast majority of them are payroll.

You can be paid and still dislike your boss.

StuartDickson

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

Not like Tory MPs ever lie.

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

How many MPs publicly backed Theresa May before her VONC? She survived by 200 to 117 in the vote.

John Stevens
@johnestevens
·
2m
🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

Different conditions, mind. Tory benches well prepped last time.

Mexicanpete

MISTY said:

If I was a potential leadership candidate I would be on the phone to Lord Frost, trying to get his endorsement.

More relevant to hold a seance and get the endorsement of Sir David Frost.

Hello, good evening, and welcome, Jeremy Hunt.

TheValiant

FPT:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.

That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.

Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?

The answer as already noted is 'The Palace' but giving a more fuller answer, this is probably the Lascelles principles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles

Foxy

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

July 2020? I don't buy that. Possibly a viable policy in Feb 2020, but by July it had faded to allow EOTHO etc.

I don't believe Mad Nad.

Carnyx

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Tory civil war.
Absolutely delicious.

Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

BUT ....

What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.

Carnyx

Foxy said:

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

July 2020? I don't buy that. Possibly a viable policy in Feb 2020, but by July it had faded to allow EOTHO etc.

I don't believe Mad Nad.

That too. Very odd.

TheValiant

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

Leon

I’m in a sunny little side-street in Old Town Tbilisi sipping a cold amber wine and someone is playing the piano under the fig tree and suddenly all the Georgians have burst into passionate song. It is melancholy yet sweet, harmonious yet rustic, moving and lovely

I am going to miss this marvellous city

BartholomewRoberts

Carnyx said:

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Tory civil war.
Absolutely delicious.

Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

BUT ....

What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.

Why would they have done anything, realistically?

The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.

Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.

SouthamObserver

The idea that Johnson would call an election in which he could quite possibly lose his own seat is for the fairies.

TheWhiteRabbit

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

Everyone moved quickly last time around, because the VONC was a long time coming. More complex issues this time around, I wouldn't rely on it too much,

Cyclefree

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

StuartDickson

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.

MaxPB

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

This is what's playing on their minds, it's why Team Pig Dog are asking for loyalty pics.

Mexicanpete

StuartDickson said:

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.

Mr Dido Harding demanding Johnson's resignation has to be the end.

CarlottaVance

Labour on the case:

Wes Streeting:
Was ‘inadequate pandemic preparedness’ on the grid for ‘health week’
@sajidjavid?

https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1533784470771449858

Stark_Dawning

TheValiant said:

FPT:

eek said:

MaxPB said:

rottenborough said:

JRM now going around telling MPs they will end up with a GE very soon if they vote Johnson out today.

That doesn't make any sense at all, the new PM makes that decision.

Given the return to the old way of calling an election - could Boris call one tomorrow for the Lols and what stops him doing so?

The answer as already noted is 'The Palace' but giving a more fuller answer, this is probably the Lascelles principles: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles

Ironically, as most of the opposition MPs would have agreed to a dissolution, it would have been easier for Boris to get a GE under the FTPA.

Mexicanpete

SouthamObserver said:

The idea that Johnson would call an election in which he could quite possibly lose his own seat is for the fairies.

He may remain so out of touch that he believes the public are still on board with his Benny Hill tribute.

Cookie

Cyclefree said:

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

For whose benefit is Nadine tweeting? Surely no-one's mind is going to be made up by a tweet from Nadine? This strikes me as a tweet that is all cost, no benefit.
Once again, I am amazed by the way those in the public eye feel unable to maintain a dignified silence on Twitter.

CarlottaVance

Peter, for those who say the MPs will never get rid of a leader who only 30 months ago won an 80 seat majority, perhaps they are too young to remember 1989, when Mrs. Thatcher was removed just 29 months after winning a majority of 102!

https://twitter.com/FreeEnglishman1/status/1533747275280920576

TheValiant

StuartDickson said:

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.

So am I.

I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.

Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.

gettingbetter

Will we see crossover in the betting before the vote? It is possible.

CarlottaVance

Half way there…

90…..

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533786354127101952?s=20&t=0TPBz5IPhRICZxza0NhuGw

jamesdoyle

Cyclefree said:

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

I have a close relative who works directly with Dorries. She (my relative) has only been in post for a few months, but is already resorting to almost Trumpian levels of simplification in her presentations and reports.

Pro_Rata

CarlottaVance said:

Half way there…

90…..

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533786354127101952?s=20&t=0TPBz5IPhRICZxza0NhuGw

To link with an RIP story

"Woah oh! Living on a Prayer"

TOPPING

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

CarlottaVance

Did PM’s allies put some letters in? Timing is good. Monday, when everyone’s hurrying back from hols with no time to plot, and before two by-elections that are bound to go belly up. A colleague says: “No 10 aren’t that clever.”

https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1533787018408361984

eek

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

This is what's playing on their minds, it's why Team Pig Dog are asking for loyalty pics.

Supposedly that's banned - where photos are taken the vote is voided.

Casino_Royale

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

Both Rebels and Government are both giving a range of 130-170 MPs against so he very probably "wins".

TheWhiteRabbit

Anyone here backing Boris to stay at 1.3?

ClippP

Cookie said:

Cyclefree said:

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

For whose benefit is Nadine tweeting? Surely no-one's mind is going to be made up by a tweet from Nadine? This strikes me as a tweet that is all cost, no benefit.
Once again, I am amazed by the way those in the public eye feel unable to maintain a dignified silence on Twitter.

To me it is obvious. If BJ does emerge from this in one piece and carries on as PM, then she has shown her absolute loyalty and is likely to continue as a member of the Cabinet.

If not, then definitely not, I think. She has nothing to lose.

CarlottaVance

Chris Mason R4 says Mad Nads rant has edged some MPs into the no confidence camp….

TheScreamingEagles

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?

England won a test match thanks to their batting.

williamglenn

CarlottaVance said:

Chris Mason R4 says Mad Nads rant has edged some MPs into the no confidence camp….

Because it reassured them that Hunt can't win?

JACK_W

My golden groat in the ring :

Surprised that the declarations of support for Boris are so low, especially allowing for the payroll vote. With this in mind I think many are staying their hand for fear of the backlash from constituents who have been bending their MP's ear over the recess.

My hope is that there are enough Conservative MP's who still recall what the meaning of honour, decency, honesty and true leadership actually means. My expectation is that the tenant of 10 Downing Street will receive a temporary reprieve and the whole sorry and grotesque saga will drag on to the detriment of the nation.

TheWhiteRabbit

williamglenn said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chris Mason R4 says Mad Nads rant has edged some MPs into the no confidence camp….

Because it reassured them that Hunt can't win?

Can't think it swung many votes, but will have firmed some up.

Andy_JS

MaxPB said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Iain Martin @iainmartin1

This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.

And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.

Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!

This is what's playing on their minds, it's why Team Pig Dog are asking for loyalty pics.

Team Pig Dog, lol.

IshmaelZ

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

Loses

Would bet but cannot do so in Sicily

Applicant

Wait, what?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61703174

South Africans have condemned Irish airline Ryanair for making them take a test in the Afrikaans language on UK flights, calling it discriminatory.

FrankBooth

How many non-payroll votes does Boris have?

Andy_JS

Cookie said:

Cyclefree said:

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

For whose benefit is Nadine tweeting? Surely no-one's mind is going to be made up by a tweet from Nadine? This strikes me as a tweet that is all cost, no benefit.
Once again, I am amazed by the way those in the public eye feel unable to maintain a dignified silence on Twitter.

It could be in order to try to get those Brexit-supporting MPs who've said they're voting against Johnson to change their minds again. People like IDS and John Baron.

Scott_xP

...

Cookie

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

Laughing at your opening comment. We've been here for nearly an hour.
But just checking in on the last thread, we appear to have had active threads going concurrently for some time. How odd.

Anyway, my view is that, disappointingly, Boris survives, for now - about 60:40. Too easy to extrapolate from those MPs making the most noise or reported with the most excitement.

dixiedean

Mexicanpete said:

StuartDickson said:

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.

Mr Dido Harding demanding Johnson's resignation has to be the end.

There will be no white flag above my head.

stjohn

Is it possible that Boris will announce at 4pm when he addresses Tory MP's that he plans to stand down before the next General Eelction in a play to buy himself a bit more time as PM? I don't think this is likely and could easily backfire. But a possibility??

DougSeal

Applicant said:

Wait, what?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61703174

South Africans have condemned Irish airline Ryanair for making them take a test in the Afrikaans language on UK flights, calling it discriminatory.

It is discriminatory. It's a provision criteria or practice that disadvantages black South Africans and is not a proportionate means of achieving the supposedly legitimate aim Ryanair say it is intended to achieve. Not sure whether or not they have EqA 2010 coverage if they buy their tickets from SA though.

TheScreamingEagles

I've also partaken in a YouGov Tory leadership poll.

They asked beforehand that I was still a Tory member.

dixiedean

IshmaelZ said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

Loses

Would bet but cannot do so in Sicily

I'm in the lose camp too. But wouldn't be surprised to be wrong.

TheWhiteRabbit

IshmaelZ said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

Loses

Would bet but cannot do so in Sicily

Back to 4.2 (I know you can't see this)

I am happy to put small stakes on for you if you want.

Cookie

Andy_JS said:

Cookie said:

Cyclefree said:

I see that Nadine Dorries is re-enacting the Charge of the Light Brigade (the Intellectually Light Brigade in her case) via the medium of Twitter.

It is very nice of the Tories to give us this Whitehall Farce just after the Platinum Jubilee celebrations have ended.

For whose benefit is Nadine tweeting? Surely no-one's mind is going to be made up by a tweet from Nadine? This strikes me as a tweet that is all cost, no benefit.
Once again, I am amazed by the way those in the public eye feel unable to maintain a dignified silence on Twitter.

It could be in order to try to get those Brexit-supporting MPs who've said they're voting against Johnson to change their minds again. People like IDS and John Baron.

Well yes, but if that were her aim a judiciously worded private message, or a message in the Tory MPs whatsapp group would be better.
I think PClipp's explanation is probably the right one.

Scott_xP

The absolute state of this.

A Cabinet Minister now admitting the Conservative Government failed to prepare our country for a pandemic in which 180,000 people in the UK died.

They failed to keep us safe.

You just can’t trust them.
https://twitter.com/AngelaRayner/status/1533768088176533506
https://twitter.com/nadinedorries/status/1533763409627566080

RochdalePioneers

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc

algarkirk

TheValiant said:

StuartDickson said:

TheValiant said:

FPT:

Scott_xP said:

🚨 This will not ease nerves in Downing Street...

By 12:16pm, Theresa May had got to the public backing of the 158 Tory MPs she needed to win confidence vote

It is now 1pm and Boris Johnson is only up to 82

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533775006051753986

And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm.
Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).

He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.

I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.

So am I.

I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.

Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.

I think he will lose today, and have modestly backed this view.

TheWhiteRabbit

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc

Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?

Scott_xP

Hearing Sir Graham and the 22 team has been telling MPs NOT to take pictures of their ballots to prove loyalty to the PM or they could be ruled null and void

A few MPs expected to vote by proxy as they're away/can't get back to Westminster
https://twitter.com/NatashaC/status/1533792298475171842

Scott_xP

Today is not about Brexit it is only about whether or not colleagues feel the PM is the fit and proper person to be in No10.

Unsurprisingly, I do not believe he is and I will therefore be voting against the PM tonight.
https://twitter.com/AnthonyMangnal1/status/1533791212922093568

Scott_xP

Dorries is about to give an interview to @BethRigby. 👀👀👀
https://twitter.com/sturdyAlex/status/1533792386152898562

Razedabode

The pro Johnson support not exactly overwhelming, is it?

Andy_JS

"Kate Ferguson
@kateferguson4

I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
It is because he has not had the whip suspended"

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533754523604361218

Andy_JS

edit

Applicant

DougSeal said:

Applicant said:

Wait, what?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-61703174

South Africans have condemned Irish airline Ryanair for making them take a test in the Afrikaans language on UK flights, calling it discriminatory.

It is discriminatory. It's a provision criteria or practice that disadvantages black South Africans and is not a proportionate means of achieving the supposedly legitimate aim Ryanair say it is intended to achieve. Not sure whether or not they have EqA 2010 coverage if they buy their tickets from SA though.

Oh, yeah, my "WTF?" was at why Ryanair thought this might be at all appropriate.

fitalass

If Boris and his team are seriously concerned that he is definitely going to lose the vote of confidence, could we see his resignation before the vote tonight? I suspect that there will be more Conservative MPs who were sitting on the fence unable to vote to shore him up than those who are now willing to keep him in place in the short term now the decisive moment has arrived.

bondegezou

BartholomewRoberts said:

Carnyx said:

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Tory civil war.
Absolutely delicious.

Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

BUT ....

What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.

Why would they have done anything, realistically?

The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.

Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.

Pandemic preparedness should always be on the radar, just as a war should always be on the radar.

DougSeal

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc

Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?

Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.

RochdalePioneers

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc

Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?

A valid question - I'm sure they all say "as I no longer have the confidence of my colleagues I will resign as leader" or words to that effect. But I don't know for sure.

JACK_W

Andy_JS said:

"Kate Ferguson
@kateferguson4

I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
It is because he has not had the whip suspended"

https://twitter.com/kateferguson4/status/1533754523604361218

Imagine if it's the vote that helps Boris over the line ?!? ..

TheScreamingEagles

I see the cowardly PM is hiding in Downing Street and didn't come out to greet the Estonian Prime Minister.

Mortimer

I think Boris loses by 5-10.

I've just laid his winning on BF.

Razedabode

TheScreamingEagles said:

I see the cowardly PM is hiding in Downing Street and didn't come out to greet the Estonian Prime Minister.

HE’S FOCUSED ON THE DAY JOB..

(Presumably hiding in a fridge)

Applicant

bondegezou said:

BartholomewRoberts said:

Carnyx said:

StuartDickson said:

Andy_JS said:

Nadine Dorries to Jeremy Hunt:

"Nadine Dorries
@NadineDorries
1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.

2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.

3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.

4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"

https://twitter.com/NadineDorries/status/1533763405844185088

Tory civil war.
Absolutely delicious.

Quite quick out of the mark with the smears, no?

BUT ....

What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.

Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.

Why would they have done anything, realistically?

The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.

Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.

Pandemic preparedness should always be on the radar, just as a war should always be on the radar.

Right. But the point is that there was a perfectly viable pandemic preparedness plan, which Boris (panicked by the photos coming out of Italy) chucked in the bin under pressure from the media. The problem wasn't the planning, the problem was the panic.

biggles

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?

England won a test match thanks to their batting.

“Their”? Does Joe Root identify as “they”….?

solarflare

I started this morning thinking he'd win comfortably, but on current trajectory I think it is down to winning fairly narrowly. Too many people openly saying they'll vote to get rid of him, and relatively slow take-up on the support side. Not convinced yet there's enough to oust him today, but he's not going to win by a comfortable margin.

Reasonably after that you'd expect anyone else to realise the game's up, do the honourable thing and resign anyway, but Boris won't. They'll have to prise him out. So I reckon the Tories will spend the next several months with a lame duck PM who only relatively narrowly scraped through a confidence vote but who then pretended nothing had happened.

bondegezou

DougSeal said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

RochdalePioneers said:

TOPPING said:

Oh people are over here, are they.

fpt

Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.

I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.

He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*

Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.

*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.

I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens:
1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week
2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc

Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?

Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.

It is possible for an outgoing leader to have lost the confidence of the party as a permanent leader, but for the party to retain their confidence in the individual being PM while a new leader is selected.

Scott_xP

TheScreamingEagles said:

I see the cowardly PM is hiding in Downing Street and didn't come out to greet the Estonian Prime Minister.

A blond-haired prime minister whose government could collapse within hours just spotted going into Number 10…

(Johnson meeting Estonian PM Kaja Kallas today - unfortunate timing for both, but within limits).

First of many rolling piss takes here.

https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-vote-no-confidence-carrie-b2094851.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1533794354342551558/photo/1

Andy_JS

FrankBooth said:

How many non-payroll votes does Boris have?

Around 50 probably.

eek

Mortimer said:

I think Boris loses by 5-10.

I've just laid his winning on BF.

I think Bozo wins by 5-10 which in his world is reason enough to remain PM even as it kicks off an almighty Tory party civil war..

Penddu2

Pro_Rata said:

CarlottaVance said:

Half way there…

90…..

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1533786354127101952?s=20&t=0TPBz5IPhRICZxza0NhuGw

To link with an RIP story

"Woah oh! Living on a Prayer"

Or...

'I'm going down...on a bed..with Dories'

bondegezou

TheScreamingEagles said:

I see the cowardly PM is hiding in Downing Street and didn't come out to greet the Estonian Prime Minister.

You should’ve said that the Etonian Prime Minister didn’t come out to meet the Estonian Prime Minister!

Applicant

biggles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?

England won a test match thanks to their batting.

“Their”? Does Joe Root identify as “they”….?

TBF, Stokes got 50-odd, even if he did get out with a rush of blood to the head. And Foakes was perfectly decent in support of Root in the final partnership.