If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.
Correct but....only as long as the Con MPs vote against the government in a Commons VONC. This scenario won't happen, where Boris just stays until, but is not unconstitutional.
It is not for HM the Queen to do for Tory MPs what they want in a secret ballot but won't vote for in public. Why on earth should she do their dirty work for them.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 21m Nadine Dorries and JRM currently leading the charge at Westminster to rally support for Boris. Needs more senior cabinet support than that. Tory MPs noticing.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.
He won't have to resign at all. He can face a VoNC in the Commons and, if he loses, call a general election and, if it turns out to be inconclusive, stay on and wait for something to turn up. An asteroid strike, maybe.
If he loses a VONC in the Commons, then we don't automatically have a general election. If someone else can command a majority of the Commons, no election, that person becomes PM.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
Do we have a ballpark figure of Tory MP's who voted Remain?
I don’t think that’s relevant given those against him come from all wings of the party .
No. But it's interesting. I know they all swear blind they've had a Damascene Conversion. But they can't all have had?
I think that a lot of them that claim to believe in it no more believe in it than Boris Johnson does. There are definitely the zealots, but most who appear to believe in it merely do so to placate the slavering swivel-eyed loons that now make up their local associations. If they are asked by anyone they avoid the question, somewhat like a parent avoiding an awkward question about the tooth fairy or Father Christmas
I'd take anything Nadine Dorries publicly says about what Jeremy Hunt said to her with a huge pinch of salt...
I wouldn't take anything from her without first handling it with heavy duty rubber gloves, and submitting it to rigorous chemical and biological examination.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process? The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not. Nothing more. And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
With respect that's nonsense. If a VoNC in the government succeeded after Johnson had lost his Tory party VoNC and if (at that point) there is no one who could command the support of the house, then there has to be a GE. It matters not a jot whether the Tories have a leader or not.
If Johnson doesn't indicate he's going after losing a Tory party VoNC, Starmer should quite rightly call a VoNC in the government, if only to show what a sorry shambles the Tory government has become. The Speaker would, of course, allow it, as he is constitutionally bound to do.
What would Tory MPs do in such a situation? Very tricky, which is why Johnson will indicate he is resigning if he loses the leadership VoNC.
What would Tory MPs do? Hastily rally around a temporary PM. Messy, but hardly an intractable problem.
Ah yes but... in my scenario Johnson hasn't indicated he's going - he is still the PM. Do the Tories rally around the PM they have just VoNC'ed as party leader?
No they don't 'rally round' Johnson, because the question isn't whether Parliament has confidence in the Prime Minister, but whether they have confidence in the government.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.
It is conventional for a departing leader to stay on as PM while a new one is elected. In that context, the PM has the confidence of the majority party (because it's on a time-limited basis). There is no need for the PM to resign immediately.
If Johnson refuses to ever resign after losing the party's VONC, then we are in uncharted territory, but presumably his own party would then VONC him in the Commons and he's gone. The new leader (or temporary leader) from the party then goes to the Queen and says "I can command a majority in the House."
There is absolutely no precedent for what you're describing. No-one goes to the Queen offering to form a government. They get invited to do so by the Queen on the advice of the outgoing PM. The crunch point would be a second losing VoNC in the new HoC after a GE, and even then someone else has to look like a plausible replacement.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
Yes, Hunt is the Heseltine in this scenario. Who is the Major?
True, but rebels should be wary of thinking theyll get another go so soon. May quit as her government was paralysed, leading to electoral humiliation. Are they prepared in 6-12 months to bring government to a halt?
This could be it - only wound him and all you might achieve is him bleeding all over the party for 2 years. Like Corbyn.
The current line being briefed by No 10 that 'a victory by one vote is enough' suggests that they are belatedly realising they've got a problem.
I'd say laying Starmer at 6/1 is a stonking bet as whatever happens today won't end this.
He's got another 2.5 years to run before a GE, which is the earliest time SKS could possibly become the next PM, and at any time Boris could be replaced by someone else, and very probably will be unless he seals the deal tonight.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
She's lit a fire in CCHQ, and it's going to burn everyone there. Today's a good day.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
With his disease profile and risk factors in that first wave there was a significant risk of deteriation whilst on CPAP. Not as high as some, but far from trivial. At that time around 40% of ventilated patients were dying, and nearly all had been on CPAP first.
The fact that he lived doesn't mean there was no risk of death.
I'd take anything Nadine Dorries publicly says about what Jeremy Hunt said to her with a huge pinch of salt...
I wouldn't take anything from her without first handling it with heavy duty rubber gloves, and submitting it to rigorous chemical and biological examination.
Her tweet was very specific, including the timing. It’s reasonable to think she made a note of the conversation in a day book. If she’s making it up, she’s open to a libel suit. Wouldn’t that be fun! I think it’s fair to conclude she’s not making it up unless Hunt replies through lawyers.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
In his case no - a precaution in case he needed a ventilator. Which he didn't. Nobody else would have gone in his condition, but as a VVIP I can understand why it happened.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
If Musk’s aim was to destroy Twitter’s reputation in the eyes of investors / analysts, he has done a fantastic job. That might have been his main aim after all
Tesla YTD: -40% Twitter YTD: -9%
That’s not a good comparison if you know anything about the stock markets. Twitter is down so little because it’s being bid for. If there was no bid, it’s likely Twitter would be down more than Tesla.
Conversely, a lot of the reason why Tesla is down so much is the overhang from investors thinking Tesla shares will be used as collateral. If Musk walks away, there is a good chance - over time, the shares recover.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
That is because you are from the slavering swivel-eyed nutjob wing of the party that cannot stop banging on about the tooth fairy, oh sorry, Brexit.
Quoting Nadine Dorries has about as much credibility as quoting Jeremy Corbyn. Both are known extremists with extremely dodgy views and are both as thick as planks. If either offer a critique of someone, most intelligent normal human beings would have cause to think "oh he/she must be OK then, and because he/she says it it must be complete questionable bollocks"
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
"The NHS saved my life" is just boilerplate genuflection to the national religion. I didn't think anyone had taken it as anything more serious than that.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Unsure here. Under the new/restored law why shouldn't a successful VONC lead to HM, after taking soundings, asking X to see if he can form a government rather than an automatic election. Someone on PB will know this......
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.
It is conventional for a departing leader to stay on as PM while a new one is elected. In that context, the PM has the confidence of the majority party (because it's on a time-limited basis). There is no need for the PM to resign immediately.
If Johnson refuses to ever resign after losing the party's VONC, then we are in uncharted territory, but presumably his own party would then VONC him in the Commons and he's gone. The new leader (or temporary leader) from the party then goes to the Queen and says "I can command a majority in the House."
There is absolutely no precedent for what you're describing. No-one goes to the Queen offering to form a government. They get invited to do so by the Queen on the advice of the outgoing PM. The crunch point would be a second losing VoNC in the new HoC after a GE, and even then someone else has to look like a plausible replacement.
The Lascelles Principles are considered part of our unwritten constitution. If Johnson refuses to resign and is VONC'd, but it is clear that Raab, in a temporary role, is acceptable to the Conservative party (and, thus, to a majority of the Commons), then the Queen's advisers would tell the Queen to invite Raab to the palace. Raab then goes and says "I can command a majority in the House." The outgoing PM can advise the Crown, but it is the Crown's constitutional role to not listen to the outgoing PM if the outgoing PM is clearly telling porkies.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
That is because you are from the slavering swivel-eyed nutjob wing of the party that cannot stop banging on about the tooth fairy, oh sorry, Brexit.
Quoting Nadine Dorries has about as much credibility as quoting Jeremy Corbyn. Both are known extremists with extremely dodgy views and are both as thick as planks. If either offer a critique of someone, most intelligent normal human beings would have cause to think "oh he/she must be OK then, and because he/she says it it must be complete questionable bollocks"
That's a bit harsh. I thought Mr Ed's point was that even if she has no credibility it forces discussion onto an area which he will not be as strong on.
Anything over 140 and he's toast. 120+ is tricky. He needs to have under 100 against to stand any chance of making it through the next two years.
Agreed. In fact I’d say he needs south of 80 really to write it off (even then these things have a habit of snowballing).
I actually think he’ll lose now. It is telling that the key members of the cabinet are not all over the airwaves.
Agree with you both. If that’s anything like true this will now get worse for him as supporters drift away. You don’t want to be a supporter if he loses.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
If he doesn't have the confidence of his party he ceases to be leader of that party. As that party is the ;largest in the house then obviously he does not have the support, and he certainly won't get it elsewhere. He would have to resign as he would no longer be able to command a majority.
It is conventional for a departing leader to stay on as PM while a new one is elected. In that context, the PM has the confidence of the majority party (because it's on a time-limited basis). There is no need for the PM to resign immediately.
If Johnson refuses to ever resign after losing the party's VONC, then we are in uncharted territory, but presumably his own party would then VONC him in the Commons and he's gone. The new leader (or temporary leader) from the party then goes to the Queen and says "I can command a majority in the House."
There is absolutely no precedent for what you're describing. No-one goes to the Queen offering to form a government. They get invited to do so by the Queen on the advice of the outgoing PM. The crunch point would be a second losing VoNC in the new HoC after a GE, and even then someone else has to look like a plausible replacement.
The Lascelles Principles are considered part of our unwritten constitution. If Johnson refuses to resign and is VONC'd, but it is clear that Raab, in a temporary role, is acceptable to the Conservative party (and, thus, to a majority of the Commons), then the Queen's advisers would tell the Queen to invite Raab to the palace. Raab then goes and says "I can command a majority in the House." The outgoing PM can advise the Crown, but it is the Crown's constitutional role to not listen to the outgoing PM if the outgoing PM is clearly telling porkies.
A year ago you’d have got good odds on Boris being her last PM. As it is, after the last 24 hours she looks more secure in her position than he does in his.
If, as I expect, Johnson's premiership ends at 9.00pm tonight it will have happened in exactly the way many of foresaw on the day he became leader. He will have crashed and burnt amid a welter of lies, laziness and incompetence.
The only people who didn't see it coming and to a large extent still can't are the Tory membership who will now be charged with selecting our next PM. What could possibly go wrong?
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
Well, I've advised selling Hunt (among others) for some time. I can't see how he could possibly win a members' vote.
With that said - and even though I have a lot of personal affection for Ms Dorries - I am sceptical of the story as described.
Why?
Because Mr Hunt did not hesitate at any moment during the last three years to appear on World at One to give his views on how things would have been handled, had he been in charge. Yet he said nothing of these plans.
My guess, FWIW, is that he had a conversation with Ms Dorries, and that he mentioned the responses in the Far East, and that she is spinning that he advocated for these measures.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
Any reference on Ukraine by Boris supporters is pointless. He's done well there, but there is unanimity in the House besides regular cranks so support would not lessen.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Why would they have to ask Starmer to VONC the government? A new leader (even if temp) of the Conservative Party could surely ask for a VONC in the Commons (in the exceedingly unlikely situation where Johnson was mad enough to think he could cling on in defiance of his own party).
A successful VONC does not lead to a GE now, because of the Lascelles Principles.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
If Musk’s aim was to destroy Twitter’s reputation in the eyes of investors / analysts, he has done a fantastic job. That might have been his main aim after all
Tesla YTD: -40% Twitter YTD: -9%
That’s not a good comparison if you know anything about the stock markets. Twitter is down so little because it’s being bid for. If there was no bid, it’s likely Twitter would be down more than Tesla.
Conversely, a lot of the reason why Tesla is down so much is the overhang from investors thinking Tesla shares will be used as collateral. If Musk walks away, there is a good chance - over time, the shares recover.
Also, Tesla is down (at least partially) *because* Musk bid for Twitter. Investors are rightly concerned that with Twitter lacking a Gwynne Shotwell, he would be embroiled in managing it, and would take his eyes off the electric car business.
I also reminded of the famous Buffett quote, which seems highly apposite:
When a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
It would be hilariously suicidal for Bozo to call a general election having lost or come close to losing a confidence post.
So I really wouldn't but it past it and I would love to see what a Tory candidate would say to try and win people's votes..
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
When my daughter was in reception I received a phone call from the school saying that she was unwell and she needed collecting. As I cycled over to the school I was knocked flying from my bicycle by an overtaking car, bicycle trashed and limping. Further delayed because the driver had done a runner before the police turned up, and they wanted my help tracking him down.
When I finally arrived at school my distraught daughter told me that she thought I must have died because I hadn't turned up.
I can easily imagine that, being taken to ICU with a case of a pandemic virus would make a patient fear for their survival. It's reasonable for someone to say that, "they nearly died," in that circumstance, because it's implicit that they are talking about their non-expert feelings about the situation, just as my daughter was.
Johnson has the support of The Sun The Express The Telegraph and The Mail. 23 Cabinet Ministers and 24 billionaire businessmen.
What does that tell you?
Hmmm.
That they can't think of a more suitable alternative.
Yup. That’s the group that will always support whoever is Tory PM, and by the morning papers they could easily all be saying they never liked Boris anyway.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
We have a loose, unwritten constitution with a lot of reserved powers. The basic principle is that the Queen does what the PM tells her to do... or is it? Isn't the basic principle actually that the Queen does what the Commons tells her to do? The view of the PM should be the same as the view of the Commons. In the highly unlikely case that it isn't, the view of the Commons surely has precedence. If the Commons says no to Johnson but yes to Raab (or whichever caretaker figure), then the Queen will do what the Commons wants, even if Johnson says otherwise.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Hang on - we have documentary evidence that he is a liar (having been sacked for lying at least twice) and everyone who has worked with Bozo calls him lazy.
So it's fair to say Bozo has run a chaotic administration and is both lazy and a liar... Whether the chaos is because he's lazy is, however, had to determine as there may be other reasons why everything is chaotic.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Ah... the big calls argument.
Brexit: he got it done... with a lie, which has since unravelled.
Vaccines: he got it right, while getting much of the rest of the pandemic response wrong.
Ukraine: the majority of countries in Europe have reacted the same way, so it's not like it was a difficult choice.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
So what would happen then? Conservatives VONC (internal) Johnson. A new leader is appointed but then Johnson refuses to resign as Prime Minister.
What does the Commons do (if anything)? What can they do? Appreciating they could make up something new as an out.....?
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
"Stop Lying in Politics Ltd"??? Is this bloke a nutter?
Absolutely and totally nuts. BUT, the evidence he has gathered is not in dispute. The news footage of the PM telling everyone he nearly died is all out there, and the data from the hospital is an FOI release from their board.
As always, look past the messenger at the evidence they are presenting.
Surely the Lib Dems will pop the champers if Boris clings on. Cheers all round at SKS place too. Boris is the opponent they want to face at the next GE. Anyone else and Labour will actually need some ideas. Which is a much higher bar than what they'll need facing Boris.
(((Dan Hodges))) @DPJHodges · 21m Nadine Dorries and JRM currently leading the charge at Westminster to rally support for Boris. Needs more senior cabinet support than that. Tory MPs noticing.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Yes it’s very unfortunate. He also has no idea how to oversee the nation’s finances and despite all the rhetoric, doesn’t seem to care for supply side economics. I suspect once the emotion has gone, he’ll be remembered with a more favourable record than many now assume.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Yes. When he goes, many Tories (and a lot of non-Tory leavers) will look back on him with gratitude for Brexit. And with Ukraine more than the pandemic, he did take a lead.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
An interesting counterfactual is what would have happened without the pandemic. It seems reasonably likely that there would have been some big public blowup over something during the two years where in real history piolitics was more-or-less suspended, so perhaps by now he would have been long gone anyway.
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
With his disease profile and risk factors in that first wave there was a significant risk of deteriation whilst on CPAP. Not as high as some, but far from trivial. At that time around 40% of ventilated patients were dying, and nearly all had been on CPAP first.
The fact that he lived doesn't mean there was no risk of death.
Sure. But he wasn't at deaths door - we know that now - nor were doctors preparing a comms plan if he did throw a 7.
"Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.
Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.
Has Nadine Dorries just made one of the political blunders of the decade? Admitting that a Con Govt screwed up Covid big time?
A lot of people who lost loved ones/missed marriages, funerals, schooling etc are going to remember this one.
I genuinely don't know whether he will lose. I think there is a pretty good chance that he will.
If he does hang on, he will be badly wounded which will be bad for the country and utterly disastrous for the Tory party.
IF he loses, there will be a vicious civil war as brexiteer fights rejoiner and eco warrior fights eco-sceptic. Which will be bad for the country and utterly disastrous for the Tory party.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
Not sure about this. Here are the steps, (though it won't happen):
Boris is PM until he isn't. He was appointed as usual as leader of the winning party following a GE. Appointment and remaining are different things. He is entitled to remain PM until either he loses a GE, resigns, or loses a VONC in the Commons. If he lost the leadership of party but didn't have/didn't lose a VONC in the Commons (per impossibile) no-one can sack him.
And why should HM do the Commons dirty work for them?
Very interesting and I suppose it would be possible (Chamberlain/Churchill in the summer of 1940). In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him). The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Where have you got this idea that HMQ can be persuaded to intervene and that "she can dismiss him"? The constitutional convention is that she acts on his advice, and only on his advice. She isn't a referee. She does what the PM tells her to do.
So what would happen then? Conservatives VONC (internal) Johnson. A new leader is appointed but then Johnson refuses to resign as Prime Minister.
What does the Commons do (if anything)? What can they do? Appreciating they could make up something new as an out.....?
They VONC him. Easy. The new leader (permanent or temporary) of the Conservative party is then invited to the palace.
"Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
What puzzles me is that Ms D has basically admitted that the Tories screwed the pooch on pandemic preparedness as a party of government.
Also, furthermore, Mr Hunt was only Sec of S for Health till 2018; so she has said by implication that the Johnson administration did nothing, or at least nothing sufficient, to remedy this.
Why would they have done anything, realistically?
The pandemic began within 6 months of the administration forming and in that time we had the Brexit dramas of the fag end of the Remain Parliament, negotiations and the General Election.
Pandemic preparedness would not remotely have been on the radar.
Pandemic preparedness should always be on the radar, just as a war should always be on the radar.
Right. But the point is that there was a perfectly viable pandemic preparedness plan, which Boris (panicked by the photos coming out of Italy) chucked in the bin under pressure from the media. The problem wasn't the planning, the problem was the panic.
Memory failing me here. What plan did Johnson chuck in the bin?
Anyone mentioned #deathgate yet? Shockingly the PM lied (I know...) about his experience with Covid. "I nearly died" and "doctors were preparing how to communicate a 'Death of Stalin' scenario is now proven not to be true.
Yet another load of Boris bullshit. "I nearly died" does sound like a classic exaggeration, especially from him. Not according to the hospital you didn't, who have responded to an FOI requests (with ICO instruction to do so) confirming that no such plans exist, and that the stages of a patient being considered at risk of death were not met with the PM.
I mean he was taken to ICU? Anyone in ICU must be pretty seriously unwell?
I have heard it from someone in that hospital that it was indeed a serious case.
In many respects we should respect privacy - health is one such I think. In his case he was an obese man in his fifties at the time that covid, besides taking the over 80's, showed a liking for obese men in their fifties too. I can believe he was seriously ill, and that might feel to him that he nearly died.
He's still a shit.
He has a very interesting record in such a brief time as PM (if he loses). Impartial historians will judge his record nowhere near as harshly as today’s commentariat do, often confusing his record with his character. Doesn’t mean of course that it’s not high time for a reset. He’s done his job, time for whatever’s next.
He made the big calls - Brexit (get it done), vaccines and Ukraine - right.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
Yes it’s very unfortunate. He also has no idea how to oversee the nation’s finances and despite all the rhetoric, doesn’t seem to care for supply side economics. I suspect once the emotion has gone, he’ll be remembered with a more favourable record than many now assume.
Come the next election, if they don’t pick well, I think the Tories will get a fair few voters saying “I voted for Boris and I miss him, but I won’t vote for you”. People are fickle.
Re Dorries’ Twitter comments re Hunt, for as much as she gets stick for being as thick as pig shit, she has effectively put the detonator under any Hunt campaign to be leader. By coming out publicly and saying he did Jack to prepare for the pandemic, a Conservative party led by Hunt would be under constant scrutiny / attack for failing to do anything. And, no, it doesn’t matter whether you believe Dorries or not. The opposition would have a field day against a Hunt-led Conservative Party given what she tweeted.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
Yes, Hunt is the Heseltine in this scenario. Who is the Major?
The bit in the linked article that I question is - "{Germany sent} 1,500 Strela anti-aircraft missiles."
If Germanys sent any shoulder launched Russian missiles, they would be 30 years old. 30 year old solid rocket fuel is lethally dangerous unless proven otherwise.
Probably. If properly stored, some solid propellant motors have a shelf life of up to 25 years, but the reported condition of these didn't indicate they'd been particularly well looked after - and 30 years is more than pushing it.
One small crack in the grain and you'd be redoing Sir Hiram Maxim at Plumstead....
Johnson will win the vote, tells you all you need to know about the majority of Tory mps, time for the whole lot of them to go, if they haven't the spine/intelligence to get rid of the liar
Comments
It is not for HM the Queen to do for Tory MPs what they want in a secret ballot but won't vote for in public. Why on earth should she do their dirty work for them.
(((Dan Hodges)))
@DPJHodges
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21m
Nadine Dorries and JRM currently leading the charge at Westminster to rally support for Boris. Needs more senior cabinet support than that. Tory MPs noticing.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533808026955698177
I've wondered if Sunak might do it.
Therefore, even if you do think BJ will go, I would be shortening Hunt.
https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1533813538233454593
SNAP POLL of Conservative party members:
Do you think Conservative MPs should or should not vote to remove Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and Conservative Party leader?
Should: 42%
Should not: 53%
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/kl6i0gpr2q/Internal_ConservativePartyMembers_VoteOfNoConfidence_220606_w.pdf
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813344414703617
They must know they will lose the next General Election if they stick with him.
Different question.
That's just 30 shy of the 180 needed to oust him, with just three hours to go...
https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1533813181382021121
Anything over 140 and he's toast. 120+ is tricky. He needs to have under 100 against to stand any chance of making it through the next two years.
This could be it - only wound him and all you might achieve is him bleeding all over the party for 2 years. Like Corbyn.
He's got another 2.5 years to run before a GE, which is the earliest time SKS could possibly become the next PM, and at any time Boris could be replaced by someone else, and very probably will be unless he seals the deal tonight.
What does that tell you?
Today's a good day.
Con majority: 39% / 41%
Con largest party in hung Parliament: 22% / 31%
Lab largest party or majority: 33% / 18%
So nearly double the chance of a Labour govt if Johnson stays, in their view…
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1533813360260784129
The fact that he lived doesn't mean there was no risk of death.
Basically, rich people saying: “Never mind ministerial codes, rule of law, and public standards; we PAID for Johnson and demand he stays.” https://twitter.com/mrharrycole/status/1533798992626204673
Feels slightly too long to me.
Sir Anthony Meyer got just 33 votes. More significantly, however, were the 27 people who abstained or spoilt their ballots.
This made it clear that a quarter of the PCP did not really support Mrs Thatcher.
How many will vote against Mr Johnson today? And how many will abstain?
In that instance, the Conservatives would be screwed unless HMQ can be persuaded to intervene (she can dismiss him).
The only way then would be to ask Starmer to VONC the government. Unfortuantely, with the FTPA repealed, a successful VONC leads to a GE now, rather than 14 days to sort things out after dismissing the PM.
So yes, it could be that three years ago when the FTPA was a really bad idea, maybe it wasn't such a bad idea after all.
Conversely, a lot of the reason why Tesla is down so much is the overhang from investors thinking Tesla shares will be used as collateral. If Musk walks away, there is a good chance - over time, the shares recover.
Quoting Nadine Dorries has about as much credibility as quoting Jeremy Corbyn. Both are known extremists with extremely dodgy views and are both as thick as planks. If either offer a critique of someone, most intelligent normal human beings would have cause to think "oh he/she must be OK then, and because he/she says it it must be complete questionable bollocks"
I actually think he’ll lose now. It is telling that the key members of the cabinet are not all over the airwaves.
The only people who didn't see it coming and to a large extent still can't are the Tory membership who will now be charged with selecting our next PM. What could possibly go wrong?
Just for the fun that will follow.
In this case, some MPs have almost polar opposite reasons for wanting Johnson out.
Not green enough/too green.
Not brexity enough/too brexity.
Not generous on spending/too generous on spending.
With that said - and even though I have a lot of personal affection for Ms Dorries - I am sceptical of the story as described.
Why?
Because Mr Hunt did not hesitate at any moment during the last three years to appear on World at One to give his views on how things would have been handled, had he been in charge. Yet he said nothing of these plans.
My guess, FWIW, is that he had a conversation with Ms Dorries, and that he mentioned the responses in the Far East, and that she is spinning that he advocated for these measures.
He's still a shit.
A successful VONC does not lead to a GE now, because of the Lascelles Principles.
That they can't think of a more suitable alternative.
I also reminded of the famous Buffett quote, which seems highly apposite:
When a manager with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.
So I really wouldn't but it past it and I would love to see what a Tory candidate would say to try and win people's votes..
When I finally arrived at school my distraught daughter told me that she thought I must have died because I hadn't turned up.
I can easily imagine that, being taken to ICU with a case of a pandemic virus would make a patient fear for their survival. It's reasonable for someone to say that, "they nearly died," in that circumstance, because it's implicit that they are talking about their non-expert feelings about the situation, just as my daughter was.
But he has also run a chaotic administration, and is either very lazy or a liar.
If he does hang on, he will be badly wounded which will be bad for the country and utterly disastrous for the Tory party.
And the husbands of both the vaccines tsar and the Test and Trace head both want him to quit.
So it's fair to say Bozo has run a chaotic administration and is both lazy and a liar... Whether the chaos is because he's lazy is, however, had to determine as there may be other reasons why everything is chaotic.
Brexit: he got it done... with a lie, which has since unravelled.
Vaccines: he got it right, while getting much of the rest of the pandemic response wrong.
Ukraine: the majority of countries in Europe have reacted the same way, so it's not like it was a difficult choice.
Conservatives VONC (internal) Johnson. A new leader is appointed but then Johnson refuses to resign as Prime Minister.
What does the Commons do (if anything)? What can they do?
Appreciating they could make up something new as an out.....?
As always, look past the messenger at the evidence they are presenting.
Anyone else and Labour will actually need some ideas. Which is a much higher bar than what they'll need facing Boris.
A lot of people who lost loved ones/missed marriages, funerals, schooling etc are going to remember this one.