I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?
England won a test match thanks to their batting.
“Their”? Does Joe Root identify as “they”….?
TBF, Stokes got 50-odd, even if he did get out with a rush of blood to the head. And Foakes was perfectly decent in support of Root in the final partnership.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
Loses
Would bet but cannot do so in Sicily
I'm in the lose camp too. But wouldn't be surprised to be wrong.
I want him to win by enough to hang on (worst result for the Cons), say 210-150, but I think he will lose very very narrowly, say 190-170
I understand the Tory MP accused of rape will be allowed to vote in today's confidence vote in Boris Johnson. It is because he has not had the whip suspended"
Is it possible that Boris will announce at 4pm when he addresses Tory MP's that he plans to stand down before the next General Eelction in a play to buy himself a bit more time as PM? I don't think this is likely and could easily backfire. But a possibility??
Ooh, I like this. Instinctively I feel it's very Boris, but the question would be 'buy time for what?'
There is no legislative agenda left, where as May at least bargained the future of her premiership on MPs voting for her Brexit deal.
This will be worrying Number 10. It's lunchtime, five hours until the vote, and they've only got to 82 public declarations of support.
And not at all an unexpected VONC, so you'd expect the No 10 heavies to have already done over MPs. In other words, you'd expect that most of those going to make a public declaration of support would already have done so.
Also worth remembering that in 1975 Ted Heath got fewer votes than he'd had public declarations of support!
I wonder about the 82 - are they payroll? Surely some we should focus on more than others?
Similar case for the rebels.
Yes, the vast majority of them are payroll.
You can be paid and still dislike your boss.
You can also be paid, dislike your boss, and offer him public support. That doesn't mean, if given a free and secret vote to get rid of him, that you won't grasp the opportunity.
(apologies if this was covered on an earlier thread but) I can't see why Labour aren't already proposing a confidence vote in the Commons. We know that a minimum of 54 MPs have explicitly stated they don't have confidence in the PM, and by this evening we're likely to know that it's >100. Either wipes out the government's majority. At a minimum, it looks like a good piece of trouble-making to force those who have expressed anti-Johnson views to vote publicly that they have confidence in him.
Initially I thought it was on the "don't interrupt your enemy in the middle of a mistake principle" and that they would fear it would rally support towards Johnson.... but right now don't the opposition parties benefit from every day he stays in post? So it's win-win: increase the perception of chaos and spinelessness in the Tory party, but perhaps make it more likely that a damaged PM stays in office.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
Today's vote has no constitutional significance - it's an internal party arrangement. Boris stays as PM whatever the result unless he resigns, or loses a VOC in the Commons. Until a new Tory leader is in place. If he had not resigned by then we are in untested waters. But it would be perverse of course of the Tory party to vote him out and not, if necessary support a VONC in the Commons.
I suspect HM would call for the new leader and invite him/her to see if they can form a government.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It is possible for an outgoing leader to have lost the confidence of the party as a permanent leader, but for the party to retain their confidence in the individual being PM while a new leader is selected.
The Nadine thread is terrible. It is pretty clear the group around Boris will burn the party to the ground to cling onto power. And the more unpopular they become, the more arson necessary. Tory MPs need to show the reason why they are in government most of the time - an unsentimental willingness to ditch those that have become dead weight.
Dorries is thrashing around like she knows her career is over. Lacklustre Operation Save Big Dog is just a representation of his leadership and administration - he and they cant be arsed
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It is possible for an outgoing leader to have lost the confidence of the party as a permanent leader, but for the party to retain their confidence in the individual being PM while a new leader is selected.
That's pretty much mandatory. The old leader stays on as caretaker prime minister while the new leader is selected.
If Boris and his team are seriously concerned that he is definitely going to lose the vote of confidence, could we see his resignation before the vote tonight? I suspect that there will be more Conservative MPs who were sitting on the fence unable to vote to shore him up than those who are now willing to keep him in place in the short term now the decisive moment has arrived.
Can't see him resigning unless he loses the vote and there has to be a good chance he will. What a day that will be tomorrow if so! Truly a time for national celebration. Hopefully the bunting and balloons from all the Jubilee street parties has not yet been discarded.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
I don't think that's right.
They can vote no confidence in Johnson as Party Leader, which is one thing, and then independently vote confidence in the Government (should anyone be so foolish as to put that to the test). That he should resign as party leader, stay on as PM, and then resign as PM once a successor is chosen (recommending his successor to HMQ) is normal practice.
Lying here wasted and wounded at this old piano Trying hard to remember this morning...I dont know Coz a bottle of vodkas still lodged in my head A blonde gave me nightmares I think that shes still in my bed.... As I dream about movies they wont make of me when I'm dead
“With your support, I believe that tonight we have a great prize within our grasp. We can put an end to the media’s favourite obsession. We can get on with the job without the noises off.”
STILL denying responsibility. STILL thinking he is the victim.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
The Nadine thread is terrible. It is pretty clear the group around Boris will burn the party to the ground to cling onto power. And the more unpopular they become, the more arson necessary. Tory MPs need to show the reason why they are in government most of the time - an unsentimental willingness to ditch those that have become dead weight.
In attacking the king beyond the M25 she has said that the Tory party management of the NHS and with it pandemic preparation was "wanting and inadequate". Hardly the message they are supposed to be putting out as to why people should have confidence in the Tory government.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
I don't think that's right.
They can vote no confidence in Johnson as Party Leader, which is one thing, and then independently vote confidence in the Government (should anyone be so foolish as to put that to the test). That he should resign as party leader, stay on as PM, and then resign as PM once a successor is chosen (recommending his successor to HMQ) is normal practice.
That's a matter of timing. The convention is (and that's what our constitution is largely made up of) that he should resign. Sure, he might not have to do it immediately, but it would be an unholy mess if he failed to resign at all.
“With your support, I believe that tonight we have a great prize within our grasp. We can put an end to the media’s favourite obsession. We can get on with the job without the noises off.”
STILL denying responsibility. STILL thinking he is the victim.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
This take a photo of your ballot.....have they never heard of photoshop, its trivial now to edit such images. Needs to be minimum a video that is sent within a few many minutes of voting ending.
And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm. Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).
He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.
I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.
So am I.
I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.
Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.
I think he will lose today, and have modestly backed this view.
Me too at 4.5. The reasons to ditch look stronger than those to keep and this is their chance.
I think if the tie looks likely, the accepted Conservative party practice is for the leader to restore the whip to any MPs suspended for misconduct to cast tie-breaking votes.
I don't think there are any guarantees of Boris going unless he gets 179 votes or less.
Yes, this is what MPs should understand and any reading PB today should take into account. Even if Boris wins by 1 vote he's going to be impossible to remove. The only way to get rid of him is to vote him out tonight, ideally by a big margin.
This is like Brexit, they have the opportunity to make the change, there won't be a second bite at the cherry.
I don't think there are any guarantees of Boris going unless he gets 179 votes or less.
Yes, this is what MPs should understand and any reading PB today should take into account. Even if Boris wins by 1 vote he's going to be impossible to remove. The only way to get rid of him is to vote him out tonight, ideally by a big margin.
This is like Brexit, they have the opportunity to make the change, there won't be a second bite at the cherry.
I can’t see the 1922 sticking by that - they’ll adjust the rules to move him on
Twitter (((Dan Hodges)))@DPJHodges1m One thing encouraging the rebels. Number of voices popping up that they weren’t expecting. As one told me “Jesse Norman wasn’t on anyone’s list”.
And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm. Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).
He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.
I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.
So am I.
I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.
Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.
I think he will lose today, and have modestly backed this view.
Me too at 4.5. The reasons to ditch look stronger than those to keep and this is their chance.
I agree, it feels like it is slipping away from him. Mad Nad hasn’t done him any favours either. Last chance is a rallying cry at 4pm?
Plus Raab thinks he’ll win the vote. So that must strongly indicate he’s losing it.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think Boris will lose by a few votes. I think your point above about Boris inevitably screwing something else up, plus his shamelessness meaning that unless he is pushed he will not go. I think there are enough pragmatic MPs to do it, it is not limited by wings of party or support groups. It seems to me that even those who benefit from Boris's support, i.e. Leavers now see Boris as tainting them by association. I predict 184 votes to remove Boris
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
No, I don't think so - there's a convention that a confidence vote called by the official opposition is given Parliamentary time at the earliest opportunity. If the PM has signalled his intention to abide by the result and resign, then you'd expect the governing party would be happy to vote confidence. If he hasn't then the Parliamentary confidence vote is a necessary process to remove the PM.
Of course if he loses the vote and refuses to resign rather than call a GE, it falls to the Queen to decide whether to allow it or not.
I have been nose to the grindstone working all over the long bank holiday....have i missed much?
England won a test match thanks to their batting.
“Their”? Does Joe Root identify as “they”….?
TBF, Stokes got 50-odd, even if he did get out with a rush of blood to the head. And Foakes was perfectly decent in support of Root in the final partnership.
Foakes was great, but he needed a proper batsman to see him tho the end. And it remains the case that only Root or Stokes could have done it. Take your point over all, just keen that we don’t get carried away and the other batsmen focus on their games. I do think the talent is there.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
Boris will win a Commons VONC, they're a completely different beast to leadership VONCs.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
I don't think that's right.
They can vote no confidence in Johnson as Party Leader, which is one thing, and then independently vote confidence in the Government (should anyone be so foolish as to put that to the test). That he should resign as party leader, stay on as PM, and then resign as PM once a successor is chosen (recommending his successor to HMQ) is normal practice.
THIS is correct.
The usual is for the defeated party leader to stay as PM for a few weeks until the leadership is resolved (see Cameron). That means Johnson will surpass Brown in terms of Tenure no matter what.
But of course, what you couldn't foresee is a defeated leader thinking 'screw you all' and resigning as Prime Minister immediately too (which can't be prevented). As you have to have a PM, I'm afraid you'd end up with an interim needing selection (Raab? Someone else who isn't going to stand and an elder statesman/woman (May?)).
There might even be a market here. Next PM? Theresa May?
No leader does it, they always stay on until the contest is resolved (Thatcher did, Cameron did, May did) but Johnson is such a sulk he might just resign as PM if he can't be party leader.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
Boris will win a Commons VONC, they're a completely different beast to leadership VONCs.
Yes indeed.
There is a slightly weird distinction which is that MPs can have confidence in a government but not necessarily have confidence in the leader of that government as their party leader.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
I don't think there are any guarantees of Boris going unless he gets 179 votes or less.
Yes, this is what MPs should understand and any reading PB today should take into account. Even if Boris wins by 1 vote he's going to be impossible to remove. The only way to get rid of him is to vote him out tonight, ideally by a big margin.
This is like Brexit, they have the opportunity to make the change, there won't be a second bite at the cherry.
52%:48%. Please!
Though in the absence of an obvious successor who can go round promising the same ministerial job to 10 different people, is there enough incentive? I fear there may be a lot of hopecasting.
I reckon a narrow win, a lot of bluster that a win is a win, and an acceleration of the polling decline.
At that point, nobody sane is going to want the job.
Starmer as next PM looks like good odds, unless the Durham police intervene.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I think Boris will lose by a few votes. I think your point above about Boris inevitably screwing something else up, plus his shamelessness meaning that unless he is pushed he will not go. I think there are enough pragmatic MPs to do it, it is not limited by wings of party or support groups. It seems to me that even those who benefit from Boris's support, i.e. Leavers now see Boris as tainting them by association. I predict 184 votes to remove Boris
I think Boris gets 200 ish, a win by 60-70. In other words he’s toast and I get £100 for him out this year. Exactly when though, and exactly what his Downing Street podium resignation says when it eventually comes, I haven’t a clue.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
I don't think that's right.
They can vote no confidence in Johnson as Party Leader, which is one thing, and then independently vote confidence in the Government (should anyone be so foolish as to put that to the test). That he should resign as party leader, stay on as PM, and then resign as PM once a successor is chosen (recommending his successor to HMQ) is normal practice.
THIS is correct.
The usual is for the defeated party leader to stay as PM for a few weeks until the leadership is resolved (see Cameron). That means Johnson will surpass Brown in terms of Tenure no matter what.
But of course, what you couldn't foresee is a defeated leader thinking 'screw you all' and resigning as Prime Minister immediately too (which can't be prevented). As you have to have a PM, I'm afraid you'd end up with an interim needing selection (Raab? Someone else who isn't going to stand and an elder statesman/woman (May?)).
There might even be a market here. Next PM? Theresa May?
No leader does it, they always stay on until the contest is resolved (Thatcher did, Cameron did, May did) but Johnson is such a sulk he might just resign as PM if he can't be party leader.
If Boris flounced Raab would be the first to jump at the chance to serve as interim PM. He’d be in the jag on the way to the Palace before anyone had any idea about the alternatives.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
He can call for one when he likes, he'd lose as the Aaron Bell's etc would vote confidence in the gov't.
Damien Moore, Merseyside’s only Tory MP, heavily hints he’ll vote against Boris Johnson.
“I welcome that a vote of confidence has now been called. I have never supported anyone blatantly breaking the covid rules…which the Sue Gray report and the Met…concluded the PM broke." https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533761697537728513
Damien Moore, Merseyside’s only Tory MP, heavily hints he’ll vote against Boris Johnson.
“I welcome that a vote of confidence has now been called. I have never supported anyone blatantly breaking the covid rules…which the Sue Gray report and the Met…concluded the PM broke." https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533761697537728513
Tell me you are voting No Confidence without telling me you are voting No Confidence.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process? The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not. Nothing more. And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
Constitutionally that’s an interesting one but presupposes the complete disintegration of the Conservative Party - so even though he is shameless I cannot see him testing that one.
All the talk about Johnson staying on if he wins by one vote is probably nonsense IMO. If it's closer than 20 or 30 votes he won't hang around for more than a few days before resigning. You can't carry on with 45% of your MPs having no confidence in your leadership.
All the talk about Johnson staying on if he wins by one vote is probably nonsense IMO. If it's closer than 20 or 30 votes he won't hang around for more than a few days before resigning. You can't carry on with 45% of your MPs having no confidence in your leadership.
Agree. He wants to be liked. He doesn’t have it in him to do “embattled”. Plus he’s got a book he can write and an advance he can spend.
He will, of course, also half think he can come again. Might even keep his seat.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
It is about the reaction to alleged inflammatory statements about Islam by a BJP politician but... the news organization does not actually say what the statement is. Because heaven above a global news organization report the factual root of the story.
What was the actual offending statement? In response to Muslims mocking Hindu deities she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
Now these are things that are ACTUALLY in the Koran and most trusted Hadith. So factually reporting a non-Muslim saying what Muslims actually believe is now too politically incorrect to be reported, even if it at the core of a major news story.
And its even worse. So TM made her 50% by 12.15pm. Johnson hasn't even got to 25% (as his vote is out of 359, whereas May was out of 316).
He might win, but his authority will be completely shot.
I’m beginning to wonder if he might just lose this.
So am I.
I thought all these votes ended up with the leader 'winning' but basically forced to resign shortly afterwards because of the scale of the opposition within the party.
Only IDS actually lost a vote straight out the gate, and he wasn't PM at the time.
I think he will lose today, and have modestly backed this view.
Me too at 4.5. The reasons to ditch look stronger than those to keep and this is their chance.
I agree, it feels like it is slipping away from him. Mad Nad hasn’t done him any favours either. Last chance is a rallying cry at 4pm?
Plus Raab thinks he’ll win the vote. So that must strongly indicate he’s losing it.
BlowJob is addressing the '22 at 4pm. Remember that his doing so after the Gray report is widely reported as being pivotal in accelerating the input of no confidence letters...
All the talk about Johnson staying on if he wins by one vote is probably nonsense IMO. If it's closer than 20 or 30 votes he won't hang around for more than a few days before resigning. You can't carry on with 45% of your MPs having no confidence in your leadership.
Agree. He wants to be liked. He doesn’t have it in him to do “embattled”. Plus he’s got a book he can write and an advance he can spend.
He will, of course, also half think he can come again. Might even keep his seat.
Churchill, after all, had his Wilderness Years. And hung on as Conservative leader after defeats in 1945 and 1950.
If Boris won't go after breaking the law, what chance of him going after winning a VONC? Pretty low I would expect. He will believe that he can turn it around.
I don't believe he has a choice. If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins. Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
"Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
July 2020? I don't buy that. Possibly a viable policy in Feb 2020, but by July it had faded to allow EOTHO etc.
I don't believe Mad Nad.
It was the low levels of community transmission at the time that would have made a policy of hotel isolation practical. MaxPB was one who advocated for it most forcefully on here, as a way to avoid more general restrictions on liberty.
You couldn't have done it in Feb 2020, because we didn't have the testing capacity to identify the infectious.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process? The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not. Nothing more. And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process? The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not. Nothing more. And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
Why isn't an election possible?
A discretionary election in the middle of a leadership contest of one of the two major parties?
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
"Nadine Dorries @NadineDorries 1/4 On afternoon of 23rd July 2020 when I was health minister you telephoned me to tell me that we had to handle the pandemic following the example set by the East/China. That people testing + should be removed from their homes and placed into isolation hotels for two weeks.
2/4You said yr wife’s family had experience of this during SARS. I said that British people would never tolerate being removed from their homes and loved ones at which point you demanded I show you the evidence for that. Your handling of the pandemic would have been a disaster.
3/4 Your pandemic preparation during six years as health secretary was found wanting and inadequate.Your duplicity right now in destabilising the party and country to serve your own personal ambition, more so.
4/4You told others that PM and Gov would swiftly collapse on back of Brexit and you would swoop in. You told me as much in Victoria St after GE. If you had been leader you’d have handed the keys of No10 to Corbyn. You’ve been wrong about almost everything, you are wrong again now"
July 2020? I don't buy that. Possibly a viable policy in Feb 2020, but by July it had faded to allow EOTHO etc.
I don't believe Mad Nad.
It was the low levels of community transmission at the time that would have made a policy of hotel isolation practical. MaxPB was one who advocated for it most forcefully on here, as a way to avoid more general restrictions on liberty.
You couldn't have done it in Feb 2020, because we didn't have the testing capacity to identify the infectious.
We did actually have hotel isolation at one point, didn't we? I recall the first few cases were put in a quarantine hotel. We heard endless reports on social media from people who were locked in a room.
That stopped once it became obvious that there wasn't going to be enough hotel space or staff.
Are we going to do a tally of who on PB thinks what.
I think Boris loses. My reasoning is that it will (indeed has already been) one damn thing after another and if they keep him it is only a matter of time before he Borises up again and we are back to where we started all the while the polls tanking.
He has tainted the party and although has had successes that was then and we are left with a very flawed leader.*
Took the 5.1 bf at modest levels.
*Of course we always were but it is becoming more transparent to people by the day.
I'm sticking my head above the parapet to say that he will resign after the Confidence vote. But there are two scenarios how this happens: 1. He wins, but the vote against is 150ish. Downing Street fires up the "that draws a line under it, lets move on" script, but we hear from MPs who just voted for him that they don't think he can credibly cling on like that. The clamour builds and he quits later this week 2. He loses. Several signs that this is possible - very slow build of open support, self-harm acts by pro-Boris loons like Elphicke and Dorries etc
Is it officially a resignation if he loses? Or is he just out?
Constitutionally, a vote of no-confidence should mean he no longer has the confidence of the majority party in the Commons, and thus should tender his resignation to HMQ. However, he could hang on, forcing a VONC in the Commons and a constitutional crisis.
It's normal for an outgoing party leader to stay on as prime minister while the new leader is selected, even if it takes 3 months for that to happen.
If Boris loses tonight and SKS tries to call a Commons VONC, could the Speaker deny it as abuse of process?
On what grounds? LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time. Thatcher called plenty.
Because the intention of a VONC is to get either an election or a change of government. Calling one in the middle of a change of government when an election isn't possible seems like abuse of process - because what happens if the vote succeeds?
I don't understand what you mean by abuse of process? The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not. Nothing more. And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
Is there precedent for one being called during a leadership election of the governing party?
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
Comments
Letting him vote seems reasonable to me.
There is no legislative agenda left, where as May at least bargained the future of her premiership on MPs voting for her Brexit deal.
Boris 170
Not Boris 190
It might be wrong! DYOR 👍
That doesn't mean, if given a free and secret vote to get rid of him, that you won't grasp the opportunity.
A big NOOO for the mental image.
Initially I thought it was on the "don't interrupt your enemy in the middle of a mistake principle" and that they would fear it would rally support towards Johnson.... but right now don't the opposition parties benefit from every day he stays in post? So it's win-win: increase the perception of chaos and spinelessness in the Tory party, but perhaps make it more likely that a damaged PM stays in office.
I suspect HM would call for the new leader and invite him/her to see if they can form a government.
What larks. Though none of this will happen.
Lacklustre Operation Save Big Dog is just a representation of his leadership and administration - he and they cant be arsed
(Nadine's own vote excepted.)
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533796843230048257
They can vote no confidence in Johnson as Party Leader, which is one thing, and then independently vote confidence in the Government (should anyone be so foolish as to put that to the test). That he should resign as party leader, stay on as PM, and then resign as PM once a successor is chosen (recommending his successor to HMQ) is normal practice.
Lying here wasted and wounded at this old piano
Trying hard to remember this morning...I dont know
Coz a bottle of vodkas still lodged in my head
A blonde gave me nightmares
I think that shes still in my bed....
As I dream about movies they wont make of me when I'm dead
STILL denying responsibility. STILL thinking he is the victim.
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-letter-conservative-mps-no-confidence-vote-leadership-b1004313.html
No BJ thanks 159
Not fussed 2
*(In my defence I'm currently marking 1st year exam scripts and would do ANYTHING else right now...)
This is like Brexit, they have the opportunity to make the change, there won't be a second bite at the cherry.
(((Dan Hodges)))@DPJHodges1m
One thing encouraging the rebels. Number of voices popping up that they weren’t expecting. As one told me “Jesse Norman wasn’t on anyone’s list”.
One says simply they "won't all back him" in the secret ballot.
Another puts it more bluntly: "I wouldn’t trust them as far as I could throw them!"
https://twitter.com/CatNeilan/status/1533779659506196482
https://smarkets.com/event/42568388/politics/uk/uk-party-leaders/boris-johnson-confidence-vote-result-2022
Plus Raab thinks he’ll win the vote. So that must strongly indicate he’s losing it.
Of course if he loses the vote and refuses to resign rather than call a GE, it falls to the Queen to decide whether to allow it or not.
Is there a money back guarantee attached to this promise?
The usual is for the defeated party leader to stay as PM for a few weeks until the leadership is resolved (see Cameron). That means Johnson will surpass Brown in terms of Tenure no matter what.
But of course, what you couldn't foresee is a defeated leader thinking 'screw you all' and resigning as Prime Minister immediately too (which can't be prevented). As you have to have a PM, I'm afraid you'd end up with an interim needing selection (Raab? Someone else who isn't going to stand and an elder statesman/woman (May?)).
There might even be a market here. Next PM? Theresa May?
No leader does it, they always stay on until the contest is resolved (Thatcher did, Cameron did, May did) but Johnson is such a sulk he might just resign as PM if he can't be party leader.
There is a slightly weird distinction which is that MPs can have confidence in a government but not necessarily have confidence in the leader of that government as their party leader.
LOTO has an absolute right to call a VONC at any time.
Thatcher called plenty.
The pleading letter from 23 big bucks supporters brands plotters "foolish" and says BoJo has their "unwavering support."
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/politics/18797649/donors-says-dont-ditch-boris/ https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1533798992626204673/photo/1
Though in the absence of an obvious successor who can go round promising the same ministerial job to 10 different people, is there enough incentive? I fear there may be a lot of hopecasting.
I reckon a narrow win, a lot of bluster that a win is a win, and an acceleration of the polling decline.
At that point, nobody sane is going to want the job.
Starmer as next PM looks like good odds, unless the Durham police intervene.
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1533799948877193218
“I welcome that a vote of confidence has now been called. I have never supported anyone blatantly breaking the covid rules…which the Sue Gray report and the Met…concluded the PM broke."
https://twitter.com/DanielHewittITV/status/1533761697537728513
(And I think the only Conservative MP left who was chosen by an Open Primary.)
In other Gosport news, one street cocked up their order for bunting and ended up with 4.5 km of the stuff;
https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/people/queens-platinum-jubilee-selsey-avenue-in-gosport-transformed-into-sea-of-blue-white-and-red-after-accidentally-ordering-45km-of-bunting-3720108
(((Dan Hodges)))@DPJHodges1m
Leading rebel texts: “Below 100? That’s the bravado that got ‘em in this mess”.
The purpose of a VONC is to test whether the government has the support of the House or not.
Nothing more.
And it is convention one can be called by the LOTO at any time. Without a reason put forward. And it's given complete priority.
https://twitter.com/alexweprin/status/1533795813129916417
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-attempt-to-depose-boris-may-be-premature
https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1533727534940049408
https://twitter.com/Gilesyb/status/1533720498865115139
He will, of course, also half think he can come again. Might even keep his seat.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-61701908
It is about the reaction to alleged inflammatory statements about Islam by a BJP politician but... the news organization does not actually say what the statement is. Because heaven above a global news organization report the factual root of the story.
What was the actual offending statement? In response to Muslims mocking Hindu deities she said:
“Should I start mocking claims of flying horses or the flat-earth theory as mentioned in your Quran? You are marrying a 6-year-old girl and having sex with her when she turned 9. Who did it? Prophet Muhammad. Should I start saying all these things that are mentioned in your scriptures?”
https://www.opindia.com/2022/05/islamists-issue-death-threats-to-nupur-sharma-prophet-muhammad-aisha-what-islamic-scriptures-say/
Now these are things that are ACTUALLY in the Koran and most trusted Hadith. So factually reporting a non-Muslim saying what Muslims actually believe is now too politically incorrect to be reported, even if it at the core of a major news story.
Gosport's newspaper can go f*ck itself. Politely.
If he loses the vote tonight, he is automatically removed (he doesn't resign) as Party Leader and a leadership contest begins.
Once its resolved, if he then doesn't resign as Prime Minister, the Monarch would just dismiss him (without him being there) and appoint the new leader.
No 'resigning' is needed. It's not voluntary. It can't be stopped.
You couldn't have done it in Feb 2020, because we didn't have the testing capacity to identify the infectious.
I would have thought I was clear enough about what I meant by "abuse of process", but I'll try again - what happens if the vote succeeds? SKS doesn't have the confidence of the house, and neither does any Tory (yet) because the leadership election isn't over (yet). But you can't call a general election because there will soon be someone who will have the confidence of the house by a large margin. In other words, a constitutional crisis - and surely calling a vote that, if successful, precipitates an unneccessary constitutional crisis is abuse of process.
Mrs Brady Old Lady to decide the future of Finbarr Saunders?
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1533803935760252928
Dineage saying, basically, that over the course of the day she'll be meeting constituents, and will listen to their views. Not too controversial!
If we find out names of the confidence in Boris herd, apart from a few mavericks they will be brexiteers.
This is Brexit. Today is Brexit. The coming leadership election will be massively Brexit.
Don’t believe me? Then muse on perhaps a big part of Boris appeal in 2019 was, after Brexit done the country will put the division into the past, two sides of a fault line come together, move on under a unifying leader - but we are still waiting for it!
Can the Tory Party win again without achieving that?
Plus - having written and signed off the Brexit deal, it’s made them an inflexible government - in all the ways Brexit dips it’s fingers in policy direction.
To say Boris Brexit Deal is 100% sacrosanct, you will come across against putting Brexit behind us - you remain effing business, and it will remain a struggle for a clear and winning economic strategy.
Post Boris, these are the issues for the party to sort out to win again. And you find relationship with the governments Brexit positions clearly woven through these issues, through many of the issues in the new leaders in tray.
I’m not saying anything anti Brexit. I’m not saying it needs big move from hard to soft Brexit. The point I’m making is government doesn’t work when it meets blocker of intransigence - it works through flexibility. Flexibility pulls people into a tent, and you work together. Intransigence keeps them outside.
The point I’m making is what the Tory Party needs to be, flexible in decision making, and where the country needs to be at, together with Brexit fault line in the past, for the Tory party to win elections again.
You have your head in the sand like an ostrich if you think the Tory Party and country are in those two places today, and there’s not much work to do on them!
I’m pretty sure I am not deluded you know 🙂 I’m pretty sure I’m hitting the nail on the head. The due diligence needed on the next leader and the strategies underpinning her government.
That stopped once it became obvious that there wasn't going to be enough hotel space or staff.
It bought us a week at the most.
Theresa May had got 159 by 12:15, which translated into 200 votes in the final result.
Dunno about you, but to me that maths doesn't look encouraging for Boris.
https://api.parliament.uk/historic-hansard/commons/1990/nov/22/confidence-in-her-majestys-government
https://youtu.be/nw4JB25nr0s
"I'm enjoying this!"