Boris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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Ah okay, fairy nuff then.HYUFD said:
Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today insteadSandpit said:
While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.SandyRentool said:I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?
1 -
Fair points.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.0 -
Total fake news....
A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308
The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.0 -
If he stays, then yes, SKS will swan into number 10 without even needing to try. Probably on the cusp of, but just short, of a majorityCorrectHorseBattery said:
Fair points.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
Edit - if he goes and the polling does not improve for the Tories then we can start talking size of Labour victory and that it IS the brand thats damaged0 -
How come Manchester got Steps and London got a load of singers I've never heard of and have already forgotten!HYUFD said:
Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today insteadSandpit said:
While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.SandyRentool said:I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?
0 -
Its going to be quite interesting how politics in the UK evolves. Obviously the most likely thing is no change, however all of the parties are in a bad way. I look today at the French elections and its pretty clear that our lines could change quite radically.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings0 -
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.0 -
I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
People aren't that stupid.1 -
That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.0 -
Lol! Since when did the Conservatives conserve anything except their and their friends' privileges?Casino_Royale said:
It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.CorrectHorseBattery said:Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed
The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.
We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
The great institutions and traditions of this country have been, and continue to be, trashed in the name of neoliberalistic nonsense.1 -
A beautiful day in Troup watching my brother conduct Turiff Silver Band.1
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By elections are referendums on the government.Foxy said:
That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.0 -
Wakefield is being fought against a backdrop of a departing rapist nonce and a very unpopular PM.Foxy said:
That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
Syphilis would poll well. (Starmer however failed to even manage that.)
I'm talking generally. As evidenced by labours failure to pull away and their turgid locals and awful by election performances up to now.0 -
The Vicar of Bray?.......Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
0 -
Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.0 -
Not really; that chap was always in with whoever was in power. CHB would have to have been a Tory since 2010 and a Blairite before that.Daveyboy1961 said:
The Vicar of Bray?.......Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.0 -
Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....dixiedean said:
I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
People aren't that stupid.
Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken2 -
Disappointing to see the BBC reporting incorrect news.FrancisUrquhart said:Total fake news....
A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308
The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.1 -
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)0 -
The truth is that I backed SKS because he was the only candidate standing who I thought could actually win an election. I always believed he would never carry on Corbyn's policies and I said so at the time. I put Nandy in second place but I didn't think she had the quality needed to win.Farooq said:
That's not fair. CHB self-corrects, responds to fair criticisms, and has the humility to openly talk about his past mistakes.Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
That's really quite different to HYUFD's approach.
I actually quite liked Ed M, he was absolutely hopeless as LOTO and I'd have voted for David instead but I like him as a character.
I thought the 2017 manifesto was good and I supported Corbyn mainly on that basis. I am quite open in saying after that I fell down a rabbit hole and far away from my natural politics. I have no interest in nationalising BT. I did say I thought the 2019 manifesto was too extreme even for me but I wish I had stuck to my gut instinct which was to call for Corbyn to resign after 2017.
My Labour past is a lot more interesting than some would think, to be honest.5 -
I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.Benpointer said:
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)5 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
Labour is seen as more likely than the Conservatives to:
- Care about Wakefield (+18 Lab lead)
- Be best on local issues (+18)
- Stand up for people like me (+17)
- Share your values (+12)
- Be competent (+6)
The Tories are also seen as more ‘out of touch’ (+23). (6/10)
That doesn't explain the above from CHB. Labour as a party are popular in Wakefield.Applicant said:
By elections are referendums on the government.Foxy said:
That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.0 -
I feel so inspired I have just made…
The Root
* 25ml Masons Gin
* 25ml Midori
* 25ml extra dry vermouth
* dash or so Lime bitters
* cocktail olive for garnish
This is the best weekend ever, and now I’m about to host a house party!
All the furnitures out way for mingling and dancing.
So don’t expect much from me for a few days. 🤭
And getting into the spirit of things - Jade’s Platinum Party Punch (made with Prosecco!) it looks the part!
Reyka, Lillet Rose, extra Brut Spumante
(It’s fizzy, looks amazing, Tastes different than I imagined, may be a little too much vodka)
We ❤️ Our Queen!
Party on dudes 🙋♀️4 -
The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.Casino_Royale said:
That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.Farooq said:
When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).Scott_xP said:Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.
The worm is turning...
This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.
Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.1 -
Weren't you about 6 years old then?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.1 -
When the last US election happened, everyone said Trump would refuse to go and I said “don’t be ridiculous of course he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble”.
So I am here to tell you all that if Boris gets VONCed next week, he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble.3 -
That is dancing on the head of a pin. The clear implication from the headline is that he fell into the river immediately after and as a result of being tasered and being incapable of saving himself. There are many ways they could have rephrased the headline to remove that implication but they chose not to. Very poor.Farooq said:
Fall is correct. It doesn't imply accidental. Though, seeing the video, it's far from clear he was trying to leave the bridge. He was definitely trying to get away from the police. It's possible that he was disoriented having been tasered and falling to the ground a couple of times and didn't realise the second barrier had a drop. He certainly didn't "jump"; he squeezed under a railing rather than vaulting over it.FrancisUrquhart said:Total fake news....
A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308
The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.1 -
Obviously there is a subset of the country that loathes the Labour Party, always has done and always will. But there are as many who loathe the Tories in the same way. I reckon a good 60% are not in either camp though. And even the Never-Labour voters can still hurt the Tories by voting LD or abstaining. (Same for Labour of course.)wooliedyed said:
Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....dixiedean said:
I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
People aren't that stupid.
Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken
Labour's real problem is they are seen as a bit 'meh' by most voters... In the current climate that will probably be enough to win GE24 though.2 -
No.Casino_Royale said:
Weren't you about 6 years old then?CorrectHorseBattery said:
Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.0 -
Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.Casino_Royale said:
The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.Casino_Royale said:
That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.Farooq said:
When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).Scott_xP said:Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.
The worm is turning...
This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.
Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.0 -
If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.
Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment1 -
Sounds like fun! Have a great day.MoonRabbit said:I feel so inspired I have just made…
The Root
* 25ml Masons Gin
* 25ml Midori
* 25ml extra dry vermouth
* dash or so Lime bitters
* cocktail olive for garnish
This is the best weekend ever, and now I’m about to host a house party!
All the furnitures out way for mingling and dancing.
So don’t expect much from me for a few days. 🤭
And getting into the spirit of things - Jade’s Platinum Party Punch (made with Prosecco!) it looks the part!
Reyka, Lillet Rose, extra Brut Spumante
(It’s fizzy, looks amazing, Tastes different than I imagined, may be a little too much vodka)
We ❤️ Our Queen!
Party on dudes 🙋♀️
(Memories of a very intoxicating four-day house party two decades ago, for the Golden Jubilee long weekend)2 -
What colour is that kettle, Pot?Casino_Royale said:
The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.Casino_Royale said:
That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.Farooq said:
When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).Scott_xP said:Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.
The worm is turning...
This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.
Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.0 -
Yes, well said.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.Benpointer said:
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)2 -
Yeah, that's true enough.Farooq said:
That's not fair. CHB self-corrects, responds to fair criticisms, and has the humility to openly talk about his past mistakes.Applicant said:
You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.Omnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
That's really quite different to HYUFD's approach.0 -
And even an insane right-winger, Steve Baker say, would be preferable. I'm not sure I would enjoy his politics much more than a proper lefty would, and he does have some of the culpability for elevating BoJo the Bozo.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.Benpointer said:
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
But he has more than a few shreds of decency, and that matters.
One of the things the UK body politic needs to escape from is the idea that anything goes, as long as I'm getting my way.0 -
Not directly. But it does say the leader has to be an MP...Benpointer said:
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)1 -
So, what are Labour’s plans for housing and environment? They don’t seem to be particularly keen on building more houses, and appear to be more accepting of high fuel prices than the Conservatives for environmental reasons.CorrectHorseBattery said:If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.
Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment
When the main parties are all pretty much indistinguishable on the major issues of the day, that’s when you will see voting based on ‘values’ or social issues.1 -
See my post at 12.13 and the follow-up.moonshine said:When the last US election happened, everyone said Trump would refuse to go and I said “don’t be ridiculous of course he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble”.
So I am here to tell you all that if Boris gets VONCed next week, he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble.
I think your comparison is apt, although I doubt if there will be actual violence!0 -
I agree, which is why i think they have a problem once the current climate undergoes climate change.Benpointer said:
Obviously there is a subset of the country that loathes the Labour Party, always has done and always will. But there are as many who loathe the Tories in the same way. I reckon a good 60% are not in either camp though. And even the Never-Labour voters can still hurt the Tories by voting LD or abstaining. (Same for Labour of course.)wooliedyed said:
Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....dixiedean said:
I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.
The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
People aren't that stupid.
Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken
Labour's real problem is they are seen as a bit 'meh' by most voters... In the current climate that will probably be enough to win GE24 though.
Before Partygate the Tories led. Once BJ goes we see how much of the movement caused by it is baked in. Then labour will have to find policies that don't cause swingback acceleration.
They have very little lead to play with if the Tories oust the cancerous growth in number 101 -
They haven't announced many or any - and this is big issue with Labour at present.Sandpit said:
So, what are Labour’s plans for housing and environment? They don’t seem to be particularly keen on building more houses, and appear to be more accepting of high fuel prices than the Conservatives for environmental reasons.CorrectHorseBattery said:If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.
Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment
When the main parties are all pretty much indistinguishable on the major issues of the day, that’s when you will see voting based on ‘values’ or social issues.0 -
The net figures don't say much. Is it a lead in "which party is more X" (in which case given the government travails the leads are pretty small), or are they independent "is this party X or not X" (in which case we need to see the gross figures in case the lead is dwarfed by "neither".Foxy said:CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour is seen as more likely than the Conservatives to:
- Care about Wakefield (+18 Lab lead)
- Be best on local issues (+18)
- Stand up for people like me (+17)
- Share your values (+12)
- Be competent (+6)
The Tories are also seen as more ‘out of touch’ (+23). (6/10)
That doesn't explain the above from CHB. Labour as a party are popular in Wakefield.Applicant said:
By elections are referendums on the government.Foxy said:
That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.wooliedyed said:
Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.CorrectHorseBattery said:
If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.wooliedyed said:
He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.CorrectHorseBattery said:
Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.wooliedyed said:
Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.CorrectHorseBattery said:Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.
23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.
Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).
(5/10)
Lol, hes such a loser.
They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
The polling will guide us post defenestration.0 -
Others are saying it better than me.
I’m in the position of fearing that the Tories will replace Boris with someone who is more likely to beat “the progressive alliance”.
But for the sake of all that is decent, he needs to go urgently.6 -
But where was Adele?HYUFD said:
Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today insteadSandpit said:
While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.SandyRentool said:I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?
(Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)0 -
Yes. Whatever your stripe, there is an immediate and urgent need for action and whilst id hate Labour winning next time, if the Tories fail to act then for the sake of decency they must be punished and pay for the failureGardenwalker said:Others are saying it better than me.
I’m in the position of fearing that the Tories will replace Boris with someone who is more likely to beat “the progressive alliance”.
But for the sake of all that is decent, he needs to go urgently.
Its that simple now0 -
From the other side of the coin, Boris has been a formidable vote-magnet for the Tories - and it is not beyond the bounds of possibilities that he could be again in 2024/his replacement will be a dud. But it is worth pursuing his removal, when the people of the UK by and large believe he is a liar and unfit for the highest office in the land.Gardenwalker said:Others are saying it better than me.
I’m in the position of fearing that the Tories will replace Boris with someone who is more likely to beat “the progressive alliance”.
But for the sake of all that is decent, he needs to go urgently.0 -
CorrectHorseBattery said:
ROFL no it isn't.Casino_Royale said:
It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.CorrectHorseBattery said:Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed
The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.
We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
It's a non-sequiter.Foxy said:
Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.Casino_Royale said:
The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.Casino_Royale said:
That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.Farooq said:
When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).Scott_xP said:Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.
The worm is turning...
This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.
Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.
If people haven't meaningfully noticed the difference of not being a member of the single market then it does not follow that they will want to pay the price of rejoining it.0 -
Doesn’t she still owe a million people refunds for the cancelled postponed Vegas shows?MarqueeMark said:
But where was Adele?HYUFD said:
Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today insteadSandpit said:
While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.SandyRentool said:I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?
(Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)
Would probably have gone down as well with last night’s crowd, as inviting the politicians on stage to give thanks to the dukes of York and Sussex.0 -
I don't think we should rejoin the SM, that ship has sailed long ago.Casino_Royale said:CorrectHorseBattery said:
ROFL no it isn't.Casino_Royale said:
It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.CorrectHorseBattery said:Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed
The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.
We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
It's a non-sequiter.Foxy said:
Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.Casino_Royale said:
The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.Foxy said:
Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.Casino_Royale said:
That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.Farooq said:
When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).Scott_xP said:Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.
The worm is turning...
This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.
Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.
If people haven't meaningfully noticed the difference of not being a member of the single market then it does not follow that they will want to pay the price of rejoining it.0 -
If Andrea Leadsom, Steve Baker and Andrew Bridgen are all calling for Boris's head, as well as the one nation wing, then he's probably not long for this political world.Stuartinromford said:
And even an insane right-winger, Steve Baker say, would be preferable. I'm not sure I would enjoy his politics much more than a proper lefty would, and he does have some of the culpability for elevating BoJo the Bozo.CorrectHorseBattery said:
I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.Benpointer said:
I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.Casino_Royale said:I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.
I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.
On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.
(*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
But he has more than a few shreds of decency, and that matters.
One of the things the UK body politic needs to escape from is the idea that anything goes, as long as I'm getting my way.0 -
Whatever happens this coming week whoever came up with the Queen having tea with Paddington Bear is a genius and it genuinely seems to have captivated the nation8
-
I wonder on a normal day how many flights are cancelled or severely delayed? I have a feeling its quite a few.
Easyjet cancels 80 flights as travel disruption continues
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-616075310 -
Pre-pandemic, no more than a handful, usually caused by an unserviceable aircraft or staff sickness.FrancisUrquhart said:I wonder on a normal day how many flights are cancelled or severely delayed? I have a feeling its quite a few.
Easyjet cancels 80 flights as travel disruption continues
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61607531
The travel industry in general has screwed up big time. They let far too many staff go, and are belatedly realising they can’t fill the vacancies for skilled or vetted positions. It’s a global problem.1 -
The royal family is not politics but it will need to move with the Zeitgeist to survive.CorrectHorseBattery said:If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.
Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment
Taking a non-partisan leadership role on global environmental issues, and helping to advocate for diversity and inclusion, both domestically and through the Commonwealth, is probably the best way the Royal Family has for retaining the support of younger generations.
I'm not expecting the Royals to enter debates on housing, trans rights or veganism though, and nor should they.0 -
Really? You think the crowd was full of people who should have been in Vegas instead?Sandpit said:
Doesn’t she still owe a million people refunds for the cancelled postponed Vegas shows?MarqueeMark said:
But where was Adele?HYUFD said:
Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today insteadSandpit said:
While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.SandyRentool said:I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?
(Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)
Would probably have gone down as well with last night’s crowd, as inviting the politicians on stage to give thanks to the dukes of York and Sussex.
Even if she had been booed, it would have been put down to Boris being present....0 -
I'm reminded, in a good way, of 2012. Perhaps the last time that national pride was an unforced thing without culture war undertones.Big_G_NorthWales said:Whatever happens this coming week whoever came up with the Queen having tea with Paddington Bear is a genius and it genuinely seems to have captivated the nation
It would be nice to get back to that.1 -
Several hundred remain at illegal rave site in Cornwall
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-61696302
I presume the plod are there just taking coffee and tea orders.1 -
NEW THREAD0
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NEW THREAD
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Indeed, the economy is looking rather desperateOmnium said:
An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.CorrectHorseBattery said:Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.
The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)
Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories
I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
Just caught the Nadine assertion that Lee Mack's joke was aimed at Starmer not Johnson. OK?0 -
Tiverton/Honiton. 3 three parties pre Postal Vote leaflet, delivered by the mail.
BBC have allegedly been told by a Tory MP who visited the seat that the reception for the Cons is "appalling", certainly the Lib Dems are reporting severe disatisfaction and emnity towards Johnson!. Understand they have already delivered 3 seperate leaflets to most areas!!!!
Whether it is all correct we will find out in 18 days time.1 -
Been the usual newspaper stuff thus far, about 3 each. Telephone canvassed twice and asked for poster site and help by both the main players.theakes said:Tiverton/Honiton. 3 three parties pre Postal Vote leaflet, delivered by the mail.
BBC have allegedly been told by a Tory MP who visited the seat that the reception for the Cons is "appalling", certainly the Lib Dems are reporting severe disatisfaction and emnity towards Johnson!. Understand they have already delivered 3 seperate leaflets to most areas!!!!
Whether it is all correct we will find out in 18 days time.
The Tories just take it on the chin when you tell them you won't be voting for them while Boris is leader. Sounds like they have heard it all a thousand times already.0
