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Boris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 13 in General
imageBoris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com

I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 17,006
    Save pig dog
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,020
    When is the Committee of Privileges reporting?

    I did wonder if the hit job on @TissuePrice was intended to goad the rebels into going off half-cocked.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821

    When is the Committee of Privileges reporting?

    I did wonder if the hit job on @TissuePrice was intended to goad the rebels into going off half-cocked.

    Perhaps, although Boris's SOP is to use any delaying mechanism to hand in order to kick the can down the road and hope it will be forgotten, the Gray report then the police action and then the Gray report again, so probably it is what it looks like.

    There are enough payroll vote MPs who could be asked to submit letters if bold Sir Boris did want to trigger a John Major-style leadership challenge, and this might still happen.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 39,603
    edited June 5

    When is the Committee of Privileges reporting?

    I did wonder if the hit job on @TissuePrice was intended to goad the rebels into going off half-cocked.

    Bloody hilarious that this administration could brief that its opponents are ‘unseemly’, and ‘childish and pathetic’.

    The crowds booing Johnson yesterday show why they’re so desperate.

    Top job by the photo editor, though, finding a shot which didn’t quite show Johnson as an absolute scruff.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Donning my tinfoil hat, the Times website does not seem to have the ST front page story that a poll forecasts a heavy Conservative defeat in Wakefield.
    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1533195760493273088
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Nigelb said:
    Dangerous stuff, Covid.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    Good morning all.

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote. If the vote is held before the by-elections and they take a hammering at those, this is what I now think will happen. There will be a threat of a second vote, which he will lose.

    My current take on this is therefore centring around whether 100+ of his MPs vote against him. If he loses that many in a VONC then I think his leadership will fall this year.

    And good riddance.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,044
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Sounds like it happened some time ago as his son no longer works there.

    I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
    Don’t start feeling sorry for him. He doesn’t give a XXXX about us.
  • FlannerFlanner Posts: 335

    Donning my tinfoil hat, the Times website does not seem to have the ST front page story that a poll forecasts a heavy Conservative defeat in Wakefield.
    https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1533195760493273088

    The paper story is simply a slight rewrite and cutdown of Shipman's more colourful piece at https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/can-boris-johnson-weather-the-coming-storm-tbcj89fjn
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,236
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Sounds like it happened some time ago as his son no longer works there.

    I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
    Johnson not caring about people booing him whilst off duty and giving them the finger... It's actually a good thing; a bit of honest communication with the voters.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 40,044
    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    Or

    https://todayuknews.com/economy/crunch-time-for-boris-johnson-he-is-really-lucky-to-be-in-a-job/
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,028

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Well if you insist on eating in trendy restaurants....
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,627

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    You can't tirn it round.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 6,613
    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Sounds like it happened some time ago as his son no longer works there.

    I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
    Don’t start feeling sorry for him. He doesn’t give a XXXX about us.
    Not fair on his son or other diners though.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 17,893
    It does seem that Boris has passed the tipping point. He is discovering what happens if you outstay your welcome.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 58,560
    Betting Post

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    He has a strong record at the circuit, and the Ferrari engine is looking occasionally temperamental. Plus the long straight will mean the Red Bull advantage at top speed will matter rather more than at Monaco.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,838
    philiph said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    You can't tirn it round.
    You can trust a thief but you can never trust a liar
  • pm215pm215 Posts: 279
    Heathener said:

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote.

    Does that require backbench MPs to vote on that rule change, or is there some sub-committee of the 1922 that would decide it, or is it in Brady's power to change the rules as he likes without consultation?
  • eekeek Posts: 19,261
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Sounds like it happened some time ago as his son no longer works there.

    I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
    Don’t start feeling sorry for him. He doesn’t give a XXXX about us.
    Not fair on his son or other diners though.
    Bozo was probably only there because he got a whopping friends and family discount
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,009
    philiph said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    You can't tirn it round.
    Customary procedure in this situation is to do a runner, before finding some other rube to exploit in much the same way as before.

    Johnson's problem is that he has persuaded two thirds of the country to not trust him, so it's not clear where he can flee to, or how he can fail upwards from here.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 2,785

    philiph said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    You can't tirn it round.
    Customary procedure in this situation is to do a runner, before finding some other rube to exploit in much the same way as before.

    Johnson's problem is that he has persuaded two thirds of the country to not trust him, so it's not clear where he can flee to, or how he can fail upwards from here.
    Has he considered getting a job at Facebook?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,469

    Nice pictures of Paddington and Her Majesty this morning but, as an undocumented migrant from Peru, shouldn't he be on a plane to Rwanda for processing?

    More likely Linton-on-Ouse, given the relative numbers ...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,469
    Toms said:

    Foxy said "... but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game."

    I've been thinking about that, and I completely agree.

    These days, it is a wonder to me that anyone without the thickest of hides would seek public office..

    Isn't the entire point that it doesn't normally happen, but has suddenly started happening even in the most, erm, inappropriate circumstances?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,169
    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,009
    kyf_100 said:

    philiph said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    You can't tirn it round.
    Customary procedure in this situation is to do a runner, before finding some other rube to exploit in much the same way as before.

    Johnson's problem is that he has persuaded two thirds of the country to not trust him, so it's not clear where he can flee to, or how he can fail upwards from here.
    Has he considered getting a job at Facebook?
    Or indeed European Commissioner.

    (Actually, there's a potentially amusing alternate history. What if Michael Howard had parked Johnson in Brussels in 2004?)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 22,469

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Morning, OKC! Sunny here with a slightly cool east wind off the sea. Bluebells still out in the woods and bumblebee friendly front garden.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 5
    pm215 said:

    Heathener said:

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote.

    Does that require backbench MPs to vote on that rule change, or is there some sub-committee of the 1922 that would decide it, or is it in Brady's power to change the rules as he likes without consultation?
    The Executive Committee can apparently change the rules whenever they feel like it. I gather legally there's nothing to stop them. I've read that it was the threat of them doing so which caused Theresa May to resign.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821

    Nice pictures of Paddington and Her Majesty this morning but, as an undocumented migrant from Peru, shouldn't he be on a plane to Rwanda for processing?

    As with Boris's reading, we can speculate that someone at the Palace has a knowing wink.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    P.s. I think he can be guaranteed the votes of Mogg and Nadine, but that’s about it.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,169
    Heathener said:

    pm215 said:

    Heathener said:

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote.

    Does that require backbench MPs to vote on that rule change, or is there some sub-committee of the 1922 that would decide it, or is it in Brady's power to change the rules as he likes without consultation?
    The Executive Committee can apparently change the rules whenever they feel like it. I gather legally there's nothing to stop them. I've read that it was the threat of them doing so which caused Theresa May to resign.
    Sounds just the sort of thing Tories would do!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Senior Tory tells HuffPost UK: "I know lots of MPs have had really bad feedback from constituents on the PM over partygate at events over the Jubilee weekend.”

    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/conservatives-defeat-wakefield-poll_uk_629c541ae4b05fe694f54f82
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 5

    if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I thought the same beforehand but, and this may be pure wishful thinking, I have a real sense that the country is moving on from Boris. It's the spontaneous outbursts: the booing, the bible reading that the palace selected for him, LeeMack, the extraordinary performances last night which were so at variance with the current tory trajectory, the fact that we have focused on the Queen instead of a grubby PM.

    I just have this sense that there's a 'screw Boris' attitude. You can feel it almost across the board.

    Except Nadine Dorries, obvs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,169
    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 36,679

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Johnson seeks division and wants culture war. Go to somewhere like Morito and that’s exactly what he’ll get. It’s full of the kind of people he and his supporters routinely denounce as out-of-touch, metropolitan elitists who hate Britain and despise everything about it. Of course, they’ll let him know what they think of him when they get the chance.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 101,701
    edited June 5
    My word, Andrew Bridgen is talking sense (well apart from the bit about Boris Johnson's successor cannot be a Remainer).

    He's right, Boris Johnson is the Tory Corbyn.

    The disapproval ratings of Boris Johnson are on the trajectory of Jeremy Corbyn’s. Those who are still supporting Prime Minister Johnson are starting to sound like the hardcore Corbynites who, for all their love of their leader, could not see the negative feeling towards him outside their echo chambers.

    https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1533316470247153664
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    Root century to see us through, I think (hope …)
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,009
    Heathener said:

    if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I thought the same beforehand but, and this may be pure wishful thinking, I have a real sense that the country is moving on from Boris. It's the spontaneous outbursts: the booing, the bible reading that the palace selected for him, LeeMack, the extraordinary performances last night which were so at variance with the current tory trajectory, the fact that we have focused on the Queen instead of a grubby PM.

    I just have this sense that there's a 'screw Boris' attitude. You can feel it almost across the board.

    Except Nadine Dorries, obvs.
    It's also given a bit more time for a bit more pressure to build. And a comparison of HMQ with any politician will go against the politician. Doubly so when that politician is Alex de Pffell.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156
    edited June 5
    This was the 1922 rule change threat that caused Mrs May to resign.

    Rule changes

    Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Lord Spicer and Lord Hamilton of Epsom said the 12-month rule on no confidence votes had been “interpreted as being immovable”.

    “It is reported that in order to change this rule the whole Conservative Party constitution must be opened, a National Convention called and even that a petition of 10,000 members is required. This is not the case,” they said.

    Insisting that party rules were “not the master”, they added: “Conservative MPs are responsible for their party. If they wish to change these rules there is nothing standing in their way.”

    Current chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, told the paper: “It is my understanding that the rules could in future be changed by the agreement of the 1922 executive.”

    He added that it was “less certain that it would be possible to change the rules during the current period of grace which was initiated with the triggering of a confidence vote on 12 December last year”.



    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-confidence-vote-1922-rules-leadership-election-280187
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,385
    edited June 5
    If by some miracle Johnson does lose a confidence vote it could change things re the by elections .

    I’d expect lots of the opposition campaign literature is about him so his departure might see some bounce back in the polls .

    Not enough to hold Wakefield where Labour should still get over the line with a smaller majority than currently expected but I would have thought enough to keep Honiton and Tiverton .
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910

    Nice pictures of Paddington and Her Majesty this morning but, as an undocumented migrant from Peru, shouldn't he be on a plane to Rwanda for processing?

    Those are tomorrow's pictures...
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    Heathener said:

    if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I thought the same beforehand but, and this may be pure wishful thinking, I have a real sense that the country is moving on from Boris. It's the spontaneous outbursts: the booing, the bible reading that the palace selected for him, LeeMack, the extraordinary performances last night which were so at variance with the current tory trajectory, the fact that we have focused on the Queen instead of a grubby PM.

    I just have this sense that there's a 'screw Boris' attitude. You can feel it almost across the board.

    Except Nadine Dorries, obvs.
    Unless that was his price for a cabinet post...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,863
    edited June 5

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    Dry, bit of wind and cloud cover. Good bowling conditions - gulp!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,910
    The market's confidence that Johnson would win small, with 0-50 under 2/1, is nuts. Given MPs know which way the wind is blowing a blowout is far more likely than people seem to think.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    And ‘anyone would be better’ trumps 1-3.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,169
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    Gloomy and overcast here, but not raining. (?Yet) Forecast isn't good, though.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    nico679 said:

    If by some miracle Johnson does lose a confidence vote it could change things re the by elections .

    I’d expect lots of the opposition campaign literature is about him so his departure might see some bounce back in the polls .

    Not enough to hold Wakefield where Labour should still get over the line with a smaller majority than currently expected but I would have thought enough to keep Honiton and Tiverton .

    I don't think it would make much difference, as post loss of VONC he would still be the figurehead, and few of the numpties lining up look any more attractive.

    The rules change from time to time, but has any Tory leader been chucked out by a vote of the 1922? In practice the reputation of the party for ruthlessness is far over stated. May even won one despite lingering for over a year like a bad smell after of debacle of the 2017 GE.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    Dry, bit of wind and cloud cover. Good bowling conditions - gulp!
    That's a shame. Good batting conditions would leave even the ECB with no excuse.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,143
    Heathener said:

    if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I thought the same beforehand but, and this may be pure wishful thinking, I have a real sense that the country is moving on from Boris. It's the spontaneous outbursts: the booing, the bible reading that the palace selected for him, LeeMack, the extraordinary performances last night which were so at variance with the current tory trajectory, the fact that we have focused on the Queen instead of a grubby PM.

    I just have this sense that there's a 'screw Boris' attitude. You can feel it almost across the board.

    Except Nadine Dorries, obvs.
    I agree and I think that the Jubilee rather than being a distraction will be the end of him (well I hope).

    If you were a wavering Tory MP and you’ve read or seen the booing at St Paul’s and the general stories in the press - Carrie wearing her Boris Blocking hats, he’s a scruffy fool, Lee Mack, restaurant boos etc I think you would realise that the race is run, the game is over and the magic has worn off and the scales have fallen from the British public’s eyes.

    You would also compare him to the Royals on display where, love ‘em or loathe ‘em, they’ve been dignified, smart and still fun and connecting with the public without being the modern equivalent of Roland the Farter who like Boris was a one trick pony Jester.

    So I hope every Tory MP if they step outside their bubble in some cases but others who live a vaguely normal life will conclude that it’s time to remove Boris. Some won’t whatever he has done but enough will.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 7,863

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    And ‘anyone would be better’ trumps 1-3.
    Anyone would be better is easy to say, but I can understand why it doesn't look that way to Tory MPs.

    Also, given the change from Cameron to May, and then May to Johnson, is it actually true? I can think of several plausible contenders who would be worse, for all that I will be delighted when he goes, just as I was with the previous changes in Tory PM.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 3,897

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    And ‘anyone would be better’ trumps 1-3.
    Anyone would be better is easy to say, but I can understand why it doesn't look that way to Tory MPs.

    Also, given the change from Cameron to May, and then May to Johnson, is it actually true? I can think of several plausible contenders who would be worse, for all that I will be delighted when he goes, just as I was with the previous changes in Tory PM.
    I think the great majority of them have kept quiet. It’s a secret ballot, and I still can’t see how Johnson wins it. May had clear allies and supporters. Mogg and Nadine apart, he just doesn’t.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,961
    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    Sounds like it was a cracking day, very jealous, although I spent the day playing (and winning) a lower league match.
    Lots of debate about ticket prices this year. Did you consider it value for money?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    I suppose the obvious way for the '22 to change the rules around a vote of no confidence would be to say that they'll still hold one if 50% of the PCP write in to ask for one. Because at that point it's not about whether they have confidence in the leader, but it's clear they don't.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484
    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    "One man in Tiverton’s Fore Street, studying the posters for forthcoming films at the town’s Tivoli cinema, admits sheepishly to being a local Tory councillor, before whispering conspiratorially: “You’re wasting your time, mate. We’ve been told to refer all media inquiries to the press office.” It is not exactly a sign of a party brimming with self-confidence. "

    They're hiding their candidate away. No media. No exposure. Can't risk the pack asking about the boss. And this is the problem for all Tory candidates. If you run wearing a blue rosette you run representing Boris Johnson's Conservative party. You run representing lies. Criminality. Malfeasance. Corruption. They may not be your personal values, but they are the values you are propmoting.

    No wonder the candidate won't speak to the media.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 7,961
    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    It is. Rain band has moved through and I think we’ll start on time. Lords is exceptionally well drained now, something discussed on TMS yesterday.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 4,538
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    kle4 said:

    Farooq said:

    nico679 said:

    The BBC will have spent god knows how many thousands of hours organizing the outside broadcasts for this weekend's events.

    I know Nadine hates them, but does the average tory member really want the Beeb to be reduced to the point that they will not be able to do this kind of national event any more?

    I don't think so. I suspect the Beeb is more popular amongst tory members than wider population.

    Reshuffle her out.

    The BBC has always been there for these national events and people don’t appreciate what they have until it’s gone. No 10 is actively trying to destroy it . I hope this becomes an election issue given those who love the beeb the most also tend to be strongly represented in the over 65s which just happen to be more likely to vote Tory .

    Make no mistake if the BBC becomes a subscription service that will be the end of it . All those cheering on the demise of the BBC should see the state of national broadcasters in other countries.

    The clueless fxcking clown Dorries is on a vendetta against any organization that doesn’t worship at the altar of The Dear Leader!
    I think the answer is to get rid of the licence fee and pay for the BBC out of general taxation. It won't stop the haters from hating but it will undermine a lot of the argument about people being forced to pay a specific fee for something they don't use. Lots of people pay for things they never use via general taxation. But it is the impression of being forced to pay a specific fee for something they either do not use or do not agree with that irks some people.

    The subscription route is, I agree with you, not practical or warranted for a national broadcaster.

    And yes Dorries should be dropped down a well. But that is not specifically because of the BBC. Just a general principle.
    Do we really need a "national" broadcaster?
    I mean, we have more than one. Why do we need one on the BBC model?

    I have never been able to get my head around the fact that the BBC's funding model is essentially parasitic on other broadcast television. To watch ITV you have to pay the BBC. There's no world in which that makes sense to me.
    I understand the history of it and I can see why it probably was fine back in the day, but the landscape has moved and the old way of doing this no longer makes sense.

    How (and whether) we fix it depends on the answer to the question of what the BBC is "for".
    I think it is not likely sustainable in its current form, it aggrieves too many and is not supported enough for that. I do think if we just give up on the idea of a national broadcaster however we will come to regret it. I think general taxation and focused on news and national events would pass muster with most, I think the point about a specific fee for something many won't use is a good one.
    But can you even tell me what you mean by "national broadcaster". That seems to be a key component of this discussion, and I really don't get what it means.
    The BBC is a public service broadcaster and there’s an entire literature on what that means.
    Even my first glance at what this means: https://www.ofcom.org.uk/tv-radio-and-on-demand/information-for-industry/public-service-broadcasting tells me that ITV, C4, C5, S4C are all also public service broadcasters. There're a few different models in there.

    But perhaps what i'm after is an understanding of what people who advocated for the BBC to be kept as is to tell me what they think will be lost by changing the model.
    Precisely, ITV and C4 are public service broadcaster and they raise all their revenue privately. ITV is privately owned too and C4 shortly will be and they'll still be public service broadcasters. A private BBC could still have a public service broadcasting mandate.

    If it were up to me I'd liberate the BBC from the Licence Free and make the BBC Trust a trust that owns and operates the BBC, a bit like the National Trust, and let it raise revenue however it chooses. Whether that be commercials, or subscription, or donations, or any other model - I don't see why the state should choose, let the BBC choose for itself how it wants to raise money, so long as any money going to it is because the individual giving the money has willingly chosen to give the money over unlike now.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,647
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is heckled by fellow diners at trendy East London restaurant where his son Theo was working - and PM 'flicked his finger at customers when he got booed'
    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html

    Sounds like it happened some time ago as his son no longer works there.

    I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
    I've thought about this a fair bit. I'm not sure there is such a thing as an off duty PM. That said, it is not going to encourage decent people to stand for office - let alone aspiring to high office.

    On balance, however, he's got this far in his appalling premiership without reaching the "being booed at your dining table" stage, so the public does show restraint under normal circumstances. He's past a tipping point where public vilification feels acceptable to ordinary people and that should probably be considered by Tory Party managers.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    Apparently BoZo is going to "move on" from being despised by laser focus on NHS waiting lists.

    Oh...

    Boris Johnson's 40 new hospitals plan faces delays and rising costs amid a row for control between the "toxic triangle" of Treasury, DHSC and Number 10: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bb9b3380-e43b-11ec-a6dd-97fa9f1901cf?shareToken=d482e5138581c529009c98c619a87d78
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    What is interesting is that while a number of backbenchers and pundits are concerned about government policy, for the Conservative-voting public, the issue is mainly one of character. The Prime Minister is widely seen as an habitual liar; how does he turn that round?
    He's always been acknowledged as flawed. His positives were seen to outweigh that, however. Perception of his flaws has magnified, so his only hope is to magnify his positives as well.

    Problem is his positives included his casual style, throwing money at problems, and cutting through Brexit crap. The first cannot be magnified, he's tried the second, and he already achieved the last. Hence the NI moves to appear dynamic and effective on his core policy.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    And ‘anyone would be better’ trumps 1-3.
    Anyone would be better is easy to say, but I can understand why it doesn't look that way to Tory MPs.

    Also, given the change from Cameron to May, and then May to Johnson, is it actually true? I can think of several plausible contenders who would be worse, for all that I will be delighted when he goes, just as I was with the previous changes in Tory PM.
    I think the great majority of them have kept quiet. It’s a secret ballot, and I still can’t see how Johnson wins it. May had clear allies and supporters. Mogg and Nadine apart, he just doesn’t.
    Never discount the time serving masses of MPs. Tough to shift them to action.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,375
    Morning All.

    I'm not sure of the last 2 paragraphs in the post. Surely the VOC is triggered by the party so it's a party thing, whereas if the privelidges committee find he lied then that's a parliament thing, so the 12 month rule would be overuled?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 20,921
    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Crunch time for @BorisJohnson…@JasmineCC_95 & @GeorgeWParker battling Tory media blackout ahead of #Tiverton by-election…lovely stuff from ground here… and tough reading for CCHQ as Johnson fav rating hits -42 with 80% saying he lied over #Partygate

    https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1

    Or

    https://todayuknews.com/economy/crunch-time-for-boris-johnson-he-is-really-lucky-to-be-in-a-job/
    Is todayuknews.com part of the FT group?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 98,947
    Heathener said:

    This was the 1922 rule change threat that caused Mrs May to resign.

    Rule changes

    Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Lord Spicer and Lord Hamilton of Epsom said the 12-month rule on no confidence votes had been “interpreted as being immovable”.

    “It is reported that in order to change this rule the whole Conservative Party constitution must be opened, a National Convention called and even that a petition of 10,000 members is required. This is not the case,” they said.

    Insisting that party rules were “not the master”, they added: “Conservative MPs are responsible for their party. If they wish to change these rules there is nothing standing in their way.”

    Current chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, told the paper: “It is my understanding that the rules could in future be changed by the agreement of the 1922 executive.”

    He added that it was “less certain that it would be possible to change the rules during the current period of grace which was initiated with the triggering of a confidence vote on 12 December last year”.



    https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-confidence-vote-1922-rules-leadership-election-280187

    It was the terrible 2019 local election results that forced May out not any change in party rules, there are no further local elections until next year and given the Tories only got 28% last time they may even make gains.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 863
    Heathener said:

    pm215 said:

    Heathener said:

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote.

    Does that require backbench MPs to vote on that rule change, or is there some sub-committee of the 1922 that would decide it, or is it in Brady's power to change the rules as he likes without consultation?
    The Executive Committee can apparently change the rules whenever they feel like it. I gather legally there's nothing to stop them. I've read that it was the threat of them doing so which caused Theresa May to resign.
    Tim Bale’s piece makes the same point, that there’s nothing stopping another VONC, no need to wait for a year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/tories-take-tip-from-macbeth-be-bold-party-itself-infirm-in-purpose

    Reflecting on the concert last night, Lee Mack’s Partygate crack and Stephen Fry’s line about how many PMs the Queen has tolerated. Johnson has become the joke. He is being laughed at, by the majority. Like Major towards the end. I can’t see how he can turn it around. He’s toast, but he will have to be dragged out. I think that the famed Tory ruthlessness will show itself sooner rather than later.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    Re 3, could be worse on policy — that is why I fear Boris's replacement by an austerity hawk but I doubt many Conservatives would worry unduly. Brexit is irreversible, though we must hope not irreparable, and levelling up has yet to make it past the slogan stage; Boris's heart is not in culture wars, since he is one of those Metropolitan elitists he affects to despise.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    I’ve said it before, but I just can’t see how he wins a VONC. What solid reason have MPs to vote for him? Anyone would be better, even Truss.
    It's June and he's still there. The main reasons for MPs not pushing him out are:
    1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
    2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
    3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.

    I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
    And ‘anyone would be better’ trumps 1-3.
    Anyone would be better is easy to say, but I can understand why it doesn't look that way to Tory MPs.

    Also, given the change from Cameron to May, and then May to Johnson, is it actually true? I can think of several plausible contenders who would be worse, for all that I will be delighted when he goes, just as I was with the previous changes in Tory PM.
    Yes, a few could be worse. Also, Boris is likely to lash out and cause problems. And even if someone might be better they could still be on a path to a loss, and they'll second guess their action, as Boris and co will go the Corbyn route and blame any loss on disloyalty to the great leader.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,156

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    Sounds like it was a cracking day, very jealous, although I spent the day playing (and winning) a lower league match.
    Lots of debate about ticket prices this year. Did you consider it value for money?
    Yes but the prices were steep and we were very lucky to have a full and exciting day.

    I think they should offer some cheaper tickets personally. Do you?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    I am extremely doubtful he loses. He then leads the Tories into the next election.

    40 new hospitals delayed, is there honestly anything this Government has achieved? What was the point in that massive majority?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    Dry, bit of wind and cloud cover. Good bowling conditions - gulp!
    That's a shame. Good batting conditions would leave even the ECB with no excuse.
    Theres still no excuse.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    Foxy said:

    nico679 said:

    If by some miracle Johnson does lose a confidence vote it could change things re the by elections .

    I’d expect lots of the opposition campaign literature is about him so his departure might see some bounce back in the polls .

    Not enough to hold Wakefield where Labour should still get over the line with a smaller majority than currently expected but I would have thought enough to keep Honiton and Tiverton .

    I don't think it would make much difference, as post loss of VONC he would still be the figurehead, and few of the numpties lining up look any more attractive.

    The rules change from time to time, but has any Tory leader been chucked out by a vote of the 1922? In practice the reputation of the party for ruthlessness is far over stated. May even won one despite lingering for over a year like a bad smell after of debacle of the 2017 GE.
    And another 7 months after it despite things getting even worse.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    It is over for the Tories.

    My Dad has voted Tory all his life. He now calls Johnson crap and says it is time for a change of Government.

    This is true blue Tory country my friends.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Heathener said:

    Good morning everyone. I hope Ms Heathener enjoyed her trip to the Test Match yesterday.

    On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.

    I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.

    Thanks OKC. We had a wonderful day. A thrilling day of test cricket which seemed to have everything.
    I'm looking forward with trepidation to this morning, but as there's an Essex boy there (Foakes is from Clacton) all should be well!
    It must be one hell of a lot drier in the South if you're expecting any play. The only ducks you'll get round here right now would be paddling on the covers!
    Dry, bit of wind and cloud cover. Good bowling conditions - gulp!
    That's a shame. Good batting conditions would leave even the ECB with no excuse.
    Theres still no excuse.
    They'll find one...

    Bear in mind, this is the organisation that continues to insist the Hundred is a success.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    Nice pictures of Paddington and Her Majesty this morning but, as an undocumented migrant from Peru, shouldn't he be on a plane to Rwanda for processing?

    Typical, all about who you know in high places in this country.
  • northern_monkeynorthern_monkey Posts: 863
    Good piece on the Champions League Final fracas - ‘Uefa, the police, French ministers... all peddled gross lies. Only fans prevented disaster’

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/police-see-me-as-the-enemy-only-at-football-match-imagine-what-its-like-to-get-that-all-the-time
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    I can imagine if Boris goes (I think he survives a vote for now) a lot of world coverage will be a bit bemused at the idea some petty events led to it. But at the end if the whilst theres not really anything new in how he has acted eventually everyone wears out their welcome.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,143

    Heathener said:

    pm215 said:

    Heathener said:

    As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote.

    Does that require backbench MPs to vote on that rule change, or is there some sub-committee of the 1922 that would decide it, or is it in Brady's power to change the rules as he likes without consultation?
    The Executive Committee can apparently change the rules whenever they feel like it. I gather legally there's nothing to stop them. I've read that it was the threat of them doing so which caused Theresa May to resign.
    Tim Bale’s piece makes the same point, that there’s nothing stopping another VONC, no need to wait for a year.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/tories-take-tip-from-macbeth-be-bold-party-itself-infirm-in-purpose

    Reflecting on the concert last night, Lee Mack’s Partygate crack and Stephen Fry’s line about how many PMs the Queen has tolerated. Johnson has become the joke. He is being laughed at, by the majority. Like Major towards the end. I can’t see how he can turn it around. He’s toast, but he will have to be dragged out. I think that the famed Tory ruthlessness will show itself sooner rather than later.
    I would imagine that most Tory MPs have spent the Jubilee “at home”. They will have spent three/four days sitting with their families - partners saying “god Boris is being booed by middle England and Carrie hates him and he’s such a scruff”, teenage kids laughing at that scarecrow whopper of a boss dad has.

    MPs will have been showing their faces at street parties and drinks events where they will have been told by a lot of “normal people” that Boris needs to go.

    They will have had a breather away from pressure by Boris apparatchiks in Westminster and with that distance and space they can take a clearer view.

    It’s like being in a failing relationship where you are together non stop and you can’t see the totality of the bad because you are immersed in it then you go on a stag do for a few days and your mates point out that you aren’t really happy, they’ve heard she’s texting someone else on the side, they never really liked her and by the way, there’s a few really nice girls who have said they fancy you and would make your life happier.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434

    It is over for the Tories.

    My Dad has voted Tory all his life. He now calls Johnson crap and says it is time for a change of Government.

    This is true blue Tory country my friends.

    Will he switch back if Boris goes?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 4,538

    Good piece on the Champions League Final fracas - ‘Uefa, the police, French ministers... all peddled gross lies. Only fans prevented disaster’

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/police-see-me-as-the-enemy-only-at-football-match-imagine-what-its-like-to-get-that-all-the-time

    It was truly shocking coming on here and seeing how many people here where blaming LFC fans for what was going on when it was abundantly clear the organisers and authorities had screwed it up.

    I now know of many people who got tickets through legitimate channels who were wrongly told that their tickets were "fake". It was a f**k-up of monumental proportions by the organisers.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo is going to "move on" from being despised by laser focus on NHS waiting lists.

    Oh...

    Boris Johnson's 40 new hospitals plan faces delays and rising costs amid a row for control between the "toxic triangle" of Treasury, DHSC and Number 10: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bb9b3380-e43b-11ec-a6dd-97fa9f1901cf?shareToken=d482e5138581c529009c98c619a87d78

    Not to mention that Boris's plan for 40 new hospitals was at best 10 new hospitals, 10 reopened wards and 20 new bike racks in hospital car parks. Laser-like focus on 40 new hospitals when there are not 40 new hospitals merely emphasises Boris is a bullshitter. Laser-like focus on more staff risks handing the initiative to Jeremy Hunt who, coincidentally, published a book on the NHS just a week or two back.
    https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/may/22/zero-by-jeremy-hunt-review-this-is-going-to-hurt
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 19,419
    Royal expert Tina Brown asked what the Queen thinks of Boris Johnson, replies that: "I don't think the Queen spends any time thinking about Boris Johnson. She's seen 14 prime ministers come and go. Johnson is probably the least distinguished of the lot as far as she is concerned"

    Enter the man, enter Keir Starmer
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 75,434
    edited June 5
    I hadn't been paying attention, what bible reading did Boris do?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 18,484

    I am extremely doubtful he loses. He then leads the Tories into the next election.

    40 new hospitals delayed, is there honestly anything this Government has achieved? What was the point in that massive majority?

    1. He will survive the vote. But not comfortably. Then the Tories get demolished in both by-elections and the government suffer a long summer of pain where more gaffs, criminality and bungs to the Big Dog are top of the news agenda more than they are not.
    2. If he makes it to conference he and the remaining lickspittles in the cabinet desperately misread the room because sneering arrogance from a position of rank stupidity is all they have.
    3. The damage to the party deepens. Perhaps he finally quits. Perhaps not. Either way the worst case scenario for the Toriers is that he survives the vote because this simply will not stop if he does.

    As for the hospitals piece I have to point out that "40 new hospitals" is a lie so stupid that even MPs who have "benefited" from one of these "new hospitals" do not refer to a new wing on a tatty old hospital as such a thing. Because their voters are not as congenitally stupid as sneering lickspittles think they are.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 22,074
    ...
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,486

    Nice pictures of Paddington and Her Majesty this morning but, as an undocumented migrant from Peru, shouldn't he be on a plane to Rwanda for processing?

    PE already there in one of their best cartoons

    https://twitter.com/gillie_flower/status/1519641577609744386
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 48,722
    kle4 said:

    I hadn't been paying attention, what bible reading did Boris do?

    Philippians 4;8.

    It includes the words 'Whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable … think about these things.'
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 32,311
    Scott_xP said:

    Apparently BoZo is going to "move on" from being despised by laser focus on NHS waiting lists.

    Oh...

    Boris Johnson's 40 new hospitals plan faces delays and rising costs amid a row for control between the "toxic triangle" of Treasury, DHSC and Number 10: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bb9b3380-e43b-11ec-a6dd-97fa9f1901cf?shareToken=d482e5138581c529009c98c619a87d78

    Oh dear:

    "A group of hospitals waiting for permission to rebuild centres in Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, Hertfordshire, Essex and London have been told not to expect news until later this year, after being previously told a decision would come in the spring. The Treasury has taken control of the programme’s budget and has refused to approve any scheme until the Department of Health and No 10 agree on a total bill."

    The Leicester one is a proposed £40 million conversion of a disused psychiatry block on the Leicester General Hospital site, for use as an orthopedic and surgical specialities treatment Centre. No way will those waiting list targets be met without that sort of investment.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 13,821
    edited June 5
    kle4 said:

    I hadn't been paying attention, what bible reading did Boris do?

    At the Platinum Jubilee service on Friday. Presumably the passage was chosen by or in conjunction with Buck House.

    "Whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable … think about these things."
    Philippians 4:8.
This discussion has been closed.