Boris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com
I like this market from Smarkets as most of the markets on the confidence vote are if/when it takes place or on the binary outcome of the vote but this on the vote margin.
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I did wonder if the hit job on @TissuePrice was intended to goad the rebels into going off half-cocked.
There are enough payroll vote MPs who could be asked to submit letters if bold Sir Boris did want to trigger a John Major-style leadership challenge, and this might still happen.
The crowds booing Johnson yesterday show why they’re so desperate.
Top job by the photo editor, though, finding a shot which didn’t quite show Johnson as an absolute scruff.
https://twitter.com/TmorrowsPapers/status/1533195760493273088
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10884699/Boris-Johnson-heckled-fellow-diners-trendy-East-London-restaurant.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/04/alexander-litvinenko-assassination-suspect-dies-of-covid-dmitry-kovtun
I loathe the mendacious tub of lard as much as the next person, but booing and jeering at an off duty PM is not OK. People should be able to lunch in peace and privacy. On official business it is fair game.
As a slight variation to TSE's excellent thread, it's worth remembering that there's nothing at all to stop the 1922 changing the leadership rules and having another vote. If the vote is held before the by-elections and they take a hammering at those, this is what I now think will happen. There will be a threat of a second vote, which he will lose.
My current take on this is therefore centring around whether 100+ of his MPs vote against him. If he loses that many in a VONC then I think his leadership will fall this year.
And good riddance.
https://on.ft.com/3GXQyY3 https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1533342376755879940/photo/1
https://todayuknews.com/economy/crunch-time-for-boris-johnson-he-is-really-lucky-to-be-in-a-job/
Betting PostGood morning, everyone.
F1: backed Perez each way at 8.5 (8, plus boost) to win in Azerbaijan. Third the odds top 2.
He has a strong record at the circuit, and the Ferrari engine is looking occasionally temperamental. Plus the long straight will mean the Red Bull advantage at top speed will matter rather more than at Monaco.
Johnson's problem is that he has persuaded two thirds of the country to not trust him, so it's not clear where he can flee to, or how he can fail upwards from here.
I've been thinking about that, and I completely agree.
These days, it is a wonder to me that anyone without the thickest of hides would seek public office..
On topic, trust is like virginity; once lost you can't get it back. And I think it's fortunate in the way for the PM that he's lost public trust at this time, because if we hadn't been sidetracked with the Jubilee he'll be even more trouble.
I suspect he'll survive the vote of confidence, but not by much. Lower end of 50-100.
(Actually, there's a potentially amusing alternate history. What if Michael Howard had parked Johnson in Brussels in 2004?)
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/conservatives-defeat-wakefield-poll_uk_629c541ae4b05fe694f54f82
I just have this sense that there's a 'screw Boris' attitude. You can feel it almost across the board.
Except Nadine Dorries, obvs.
He's right, Boris Johnson is the Tory Corbyn.
The disapproval ratings of Boris Johnson are on the trajectory of Jeremy Corbyn’s. Those who are still supporting Prime Minister Johnson are starting to sound like the hardcore Corbynites who, for all their love of their leader, could not see the negative feeling towards him outside their echo chambers.
https://twitter.com/ABridgen/status/1533316470247153664
Rule changes
Writing in the Sunday Telegraph, Lord Spicer and Lord Hamilton of Epsom said the 12-month rule on no confidence votes had been “interpreted as being immovable”.
“It is reported that in order to change this rule the whole Conservative Party constitution must be opened, a National Convention called and even that a petition of 10,000 members is required. This is not the case,” they said.
Insisting that party rules were “not the master”, they added: “Conservative MPs are responsible for their party. If they wish to change these rules there is nothing standing in their way.”
Current chairman of the 1922 Committee, Sir Graham Brady, told the paper: “It is my understanding that the rules could in future be changed by the agreement of the 1922 executive.”
He added that it was “less certain that it would be possible to change the rules during the current period of grace which was initiated with the triggering of a confidence vote on 12 December last year”.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/theresa-may-confidence-vote-1922-rules-leadership-election-280187
I’d expect lots of the opposition campaign literature is about him so his departure might see some bounce back in the polls .
Not enough to hold Wakefield where Labour should still get over the line with a smaller majority than currently expected but I would have thought enough to keep Honiton and Tiverton .
https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/news/politics/188679/tory-plotters-in-vote-strike-threat-unless-boris-agrees-to-quit-no10?collection=10143&&contentLayout=News
1. Strongest Tory election-winner since Thatcher.
2. No polling evidence that anyone else would be better.
3. Identity of replacement uncertain. Could be worse on policy.
I think Alistair Meeks argument from yesterday is convincing, that the statements from Leadsom and Wright were intended to start discussion on the identity of a replacement so that the risk from 3 can be neutralized and the lack of 2 can be rationalized away - clearing the path for a successful change of leader.
The rules change from time to time, but has any Tory leader been chucked out by a vote of the 1922? In practice the reputation of the party for ruthlessness is far over stated. May even won one despite lingering for over a year like a bad smell after of debacle of the 2017 GE.
If you were a wavering Tory MP and you’ve read or seen the booing at St Paul’s and the general stories in the press - Carrie wearing her Boris Blocking hats, he’s a scruffy fool, Lee Mack, restaurant boos etc I think you would realise that the race is run, the game is over and the magic has worn off and the scales have fallen from the British public’s eyes.
You would also compare him to the Royals on display where, love ‘em or loathe ‘em, they’ve been dignified, smart and still fun and connecting with the public without being the modern equivalent of Roland the Farter who like Boris was a one trick pony Jester.
So I hope every Tory MP if they step outside their bubble in some cases but others who live a vaguely normal life will conclude that it’s time to remove Boris. Some won’t whatever he has done but enough will.
Also, given the change from Cameron to May, and then May to Johnson, is it actually true? I can think of several plausible contenders who would be worse, for all that I will be delighted when he goes, just as I was with the previous changes in Tory PM.
Lots of debate about ticket prices this year. Did you consider it value for money?
They're hiding their candidate away. No media. No exposure. Can't risk the pack asking about the boss. And this is the problem for all Tory candidates. If you run wearing a blue rosette you run representing Boris Johnson's Conservative party. You run representing lies. Criminality. Malfeasance. Corruption. They may not be your personal values, but they are the values you are propmoting.
No wonder the candidate won't speak to the media.
If it were up to me I'd liberate the BBC from the Licence Free and make the BBC Trust a trust that owns and operates the BBC, a bit like the National Trust, and let it raise revenue however it chooses. Whether that be commercials, or subscription, or donations, or any other model - I don't see why the state should choose, let the BBC choose for itself how it wants to raise money, so long as any money going to it is because the individual giving the money has willingly chosen to give the money over unlike now.
On balance, however, he's got this far in his appalling premiership without reaching the "being booed at your dining table" stage, so the public does show restraint under normal circumstances. He's past a tipping point where public vilification feels acceptable to ordinary people and that should probably be considered by Tory Party managers.
Oh...
Boris Johnson's 40 new hospitals plan faces delays and rising costs amid a row for control between the "toxic triangle" of Treasury, DHSC and Number 10: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bb9b3380-e43b-11ec-a6dd-97fa9f1901cf?shareToken=d482e5138581c529009c98c619a87d78
Problem is his positives included his casual style, throwing money at problems, and cutting through Brexit crap. The first cannot be magnified, he's tried the second, and he already achieved the last. Hence the NI moves to appear dynamic and effective on his core policy.
I'm not sure of the last 2 paragraphs in the post. Surely the VOC is triggered by the party so it's a party thing, whereas if the privelidges committee find he lied then that's a parliament thing, so the 12 month rule would be overuled?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/tories-take-tip-from-macbeth-be-bold-party-itself-infirm-in-purpose
Reflecting on the concert last night, Lee Mack’s Partygate crack and Stephen Fry’s line about how many PMs the Queen has tolerated. Johnson has become the joke. He is being laughed at, by the majority. Like Major towards the end. I can’t see how he can turn it around. He’s toast, but he will have to be dragged out. I think that the famed Tory ruthlessness will show itself sooner rather than later.
I think they should offer some cheaper tickets personally. Do you?
40 new hospitals delayed, is there honestly anything this Government has achieved? What was the point in that massive majority?
My Dad has voted Tory all his life. He now calls Johnson crap and says it is time for a change of Government.
This is true blue Tory country my friends.
1) Stage managed factory visits to Tory owned businesses with strict silence from the workers.
2) PM wearing lab coat/high-viz jacket, staring with incomprehension at some mundane task.
3) Colouring with primary school children, secondary school pupils far too risky.
Bear in mind, this is the organisation that continues to insist the Hundred is a success.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/jun/05/police-see-me-as-the-enemy-only-at-football-match-imagine-what-its-like-to-get-that-all-the-time
MPs will have been showing their faces at street parties and drinks events where they will have been told by a lot of “normal people” that Boris needs to go.
They will have had a breather away from pressure by Boris apparatchiks in Westminster and with that distance and space they can take a clearer view.
It’s like being in a failing relationship where you are together non stop and you can’t see the totality of the bad because you are immersed in it then you go on a stag do for a few days and your mates point out that you aren’t really happy, they’ve heard she’s texting someone else on the side, they never really liked her and by the way, there’s a few really nice girls who have said they fancy you and would make your life happier.
I now know of many people who got tickets through legitimate channels who were wrongly told that their tickets were "fake". It was a f**k-up of monumental proportions by the organisers.
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/may/22/zero-by-jeremy-hunt-review-this-is-going-to-hurt
Enter the man, enter Keir Starmer
2. If he makes it to conference he and the remaining lickspittles in the cabinet desperately misread the room because sneering arrogance from a position of rank stupidity is all they have.
3. The damage to the party deepens. Perhaps he finally quits. Perhaps not. Either way the worst case scenario for the Toriers is that he survives the vote because this simply will not stop if he does.
As for the hospitals piece I have to point out that "40 new hospitals" is a lie so stupid that even MPs who have "benefited" from one of these "new hospitals" do not refer to a new wing on a tatty old hospital as such a thing. Because their voters are not as congenitally stupid as sneering lickspittles think they are.
https://twitter.com/gillie_flower/status/1519641577609744386
It includes the words 'Whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable … think about these things.'
"A group of hospitals waiting for permission to rebuild centres in Leeds, Leicester, Manchester, Hertfordshire, Essex and London have been told not to expect news until later this year, after being previously told a decision would come in the spring. The Treasury has taken control of the programme’s budget and has refused to approve any scheme until the Department of Health and No 10 agree on a total bill."
The Leicester one is a proposed £40 million conversion of a disused psychiatry block on the Leicester General Hospital site, for use as an orthopedic and surgical specialities treatment Centre. No way will those waiting list targets be met without that sort of investment.
"Whatever is true, whatever is honourable, whatever is just, whatever is pure, whatever is pleasing, whatever is commendable … think about these things."
Philippians 4:8.