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Boris Johnson confidence vote margin – politicalbetting.com

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  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?

    While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.
    Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today instead
    Ah okay, fairy nuff then.
  • Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    Fair points.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,003
    Total fake news....

    A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308

    The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    Fair points.
    If he stays, then yes, SKS will swan into number 10 without even needing to try. Probably on the cusp of, but just short, of a majority

    Edit - if he goes and the polling does not improve for the Tories then we can start talking size of Labour victory and that it IS the brand thats damaged
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?

    While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.
    Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today instead
    How come Manchester got Steps and London got a load of singers I've never heard of and have already forgotten!
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,759

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    Its going to be quite interesting how politics in the UK evolves. Obviously the most likely thing is no change, however all of the parties are in a bad way. I look today at the French elections and its pretty clear that our lines could change quite radically.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited June 2022

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.
    The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
    People aren't that stupid.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited June 2022

    Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed

    It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.

    The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.

    We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
    Lol! Since when did the Conservatives conserve anything except their and their friends' privileges?

    The great institutions and traditions of this country have been, and continue to be, trashed in the name of neoliberalistic nonsense.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    A beautiful day in Troup watching my brother conduct Turiff Silver Band.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.
    By elections are referendums on the government.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.
    Wakefield is being fought against a backdrop of a departing rapist nonce and a very unpopular PM.
    Syphilis would poll well. (Starmer however failed to even manage that.)
    I'm talking generally. As evidenced by labours failure to pull away and their turgid locals and awful by election performances up to now.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    The Vicar of Bray?.......
  • Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    The Vicar of Bray?.......
    Not really; that chap was always in with whoever was in power. CHB would have to have been a Tory since 2010 and a Blairite before that.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    dixiedean said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.
    The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
    People aren't that stupid.
    Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....
    Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Total fake news....

    A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308

    The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.

    Disappointing to see the BBC reporting incorrect news.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    edited June 2022

    I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.

    I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.

    I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.

    On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.

    (*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Labour is seen as more likely than the Conservatives to:

    - Care about Wakefield (+18 Lab lead)
    - Be best on local issues (+18)
    - Stand up for people like me (+17)
    - Share your values (+12)
    - Be competent (+6)

    The Tories are also seen as more ‘out of touch’ (+23). (6/10)

    Applicant said:

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.
    By elections are referendums on the government.
    That doesn't explain the above from CHB. Labour as a party are popular in Wakefield.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,506
    edited June 2022
    I feel so inspired I have just made…

    The Root

    * 25ml Masons Gin
    * 25ml Midori
    * 25ml extra dry vermouth
    * dash or so Lime bitters
    * cocktail olive for garnish

    This is the best weekend ever, and now I’m about to host a house party!

    All the furnitures out way for mingling and dancing.

    So don’t expect much from me for a few days. 🤭

    And getting into the spirit of things - Jade’s Platinum Party Punch (made with Prosecco!) it looks the part!

    Reyka, Lillet Rose, extra Brut Spumante

    (It’s fizzy, looks amazing, Tastes different than I imagined, may be a little too much vodka)

    We ❤️ Our Queen!

    Party on dudes 🙋‍♀️
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446
    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.

    The worm is turning...

    When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).
    This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.

    Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
    That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.
    Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.

    Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.



    The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.
    Weren't you about 6 years old then?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    When the last US election happened, everyone said Trump would refuse to go and I said “don’t be ridiculous of course he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble”.

    So I am here to tell you all that if Boris gets VONCed next week, he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,523
    Farooq said:

    Total fake news....

    A man is in a critical condition after being Tasered by police and falling in the River Thames.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-london-61689308

    The video is widely available, he didn't fall, he jumped after running away from the police.

    Fall is correct. It doesn't imply accidental. Though, seeing the video, it's far from clear he was trying to leave the bridge. He was definitely trying to get away from the police. It's possible that he was disoriented having been tasered and falling to the ground a couple of times and didn't realise the second barrier had a drop. He certainly didn't "jump"; he squeezed under a railing rather than vaulting over it.
    That is dancing on the head of a pin. The clear implication from the headline is that he fell into the river immediately after and as a result of being tasered and being incapable of saving himself. There are many ways they could have rephrased the headline to remove that implication but they chose not to. Very poor.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    dixiedean said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.
    The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
    People aren't that stupid.
    Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....
    Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken
    Obviously there is a subset of the country that loathes the Labour Party, always has done and always will. But there are as many who loathe the Tories in the same way. I reckon a good 60% are not in either camp though. And even the Never-Labour voters can still hurt the Tories by voting LD or abstaining. (Same for Labour of course.)

    Labour's real problem is they are seen as a bit 'meh' by most voters... In the current climate that will probably be enough to win GE24 though.
  • Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    Actually I resigned my membership after the invasion of Iraq.
    Weren't you about 6 years old then?
    No.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.

    The worm is turning...

    When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).
    This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.

    Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
    That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.
    Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.

    Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.



    The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.
    Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.
  • If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.

    Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    I feel so inspired I have just made…

    The Root

    * 25ml Masons Gin
    * 25ml Midori
    * 25ml extra dry vermouth
    * dash or so Lime bitters
    * cocktail olive for garnish

    This is the best weekend ever, and now I’m about to host a house party!

    All the furnitures out way for mingling and dancing.

    So don’t expect much from me for a few days. 🤭

    And getting into the spirit of things - Jade’s Platinum Party Punch (made with Prosecco!) it looks the part!

    Reyka, Lillet Rose, extra Brut Spumante

    (It’s fizzy, looks amazing, Tastes different than I imagined, may be a little too much vodka)

    We ❤️ Our Queen!

    Party on dudes 🙋‍♀️

    Sounds like fun! Have a great day.

    (Memories of a very intoxicating four-day house party two decades ago, for the Golden Jubilee long weekend)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.

    The worm is turning...

    When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).
    This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.

    Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
    That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.
    Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.

    Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.



    The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.
    What colour is that kettle, Pot?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.

    I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.

    I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.

    On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.

    (*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
    I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.
    Yes, well said.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Farooq said:

    Applicant said:

    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    I'm currently a member of the Labour Party but I have voted Lib Dem in the past.

    I am a leftie, not always certain to be Labour but I am now. Naturally I am probably Blairite, apart from my worst moments during Corbynism where I lost my bearings
    You were Blairite under Blair, Corbynite under Corbyn and now a big backer of SKS.

    You're nothing but the Labour equivalent of HYUFD.
    That's not fair. CHB self-corrects, responds to fair criticisms, and has the humility to openly talk about his past mistakes.
    That's really quite different to HYUFD's approach.
    Yeah, that's true enough.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.

    I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.

    I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.

    On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.

    (*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
    I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.
    And even an insane right-winger, Steve Baker say, would be preferable. I'm not sure I would enjoy his politics much more than a proper lefty would, and he does have some of the culpability for elevating BoJo the Bozo.

    But he has more than a few shreds of decency, and that matters.

    One of the things the UK body politic needs to escape from is the idea that anything goes, as long as I'm getting my way.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.

    I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.

    I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.

    On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.

    (*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
    Not directly. But it does say the leader has to be an MP...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.

    Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment

    So, what are Labour’s plans for housing and environment? They don’t seem to be particularly keen on building more houses, and appear to be more accepting of high fuel prices than the Conservatives for environmental reasons.

    When the main parties are all pretty much indistinguishable on the major issues of the day, that’s when you will see voting based on ‘values’ or social issues.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    edited June 2022
    moonshine said:

    When the last US election happened, everyone said Trump would refuse to go and I said “don’t be ridiculous of course he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble”.

    So I am here to tell you all that if Boris gets VONCed next week, he’ll gracefully go and there will be no trouble.

    See my post at 12.13 and the follow-up.

    I think your comparison is apt, although I doubt if there will be actual violence!
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    dixiedean said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    I kind of agree. Though I reckon "loathed" is a bit strong.
    The problem is, though. Every time a useful idiot goes on and argues boos were cheers, that they've heard absolutely no-one interested in parties, that black is white, and all is fine with a contented nation under its wise leader, more and more folk think the Tory Party as a whole are bonkers.
    People aren't that stupid.
    Loathed is probably my view. And by probably i mean.....
    Yes, you're right here, the Johnson problem will fast become a brand problem if no action is taken
    Obviously there is a subset of the country that loathes the Labour Party, always has done and always will. But there are as many who loathe the Tories in the same way. I reckon a good 60% are not in either camp though. And even the Never-Labour voters can still hurt the Tories by voting LD or abstaining. (Same for Labour of course.)

    Labour's real problem is they are seen as a bit 'meh' by most voters... In the current climate that will probably be enough to win GE24 though.
    I agree, which is why i think they have a problem once the current climate undergoes climate change.
    Before Partygate the Tories led. Once BJ goes we see how much of the movement caused by it is baked in. Then labour will have to find policies that don't cause swingback acceleration.
    They have very little lead to play with if the Tories oust the cancerous growth in number 10
  • Sandpit said:

    If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.

    Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment

    So, what are Labour’s plans for housing and environment? They don’t seem to be particularly keen on building more houses, and appear to be more accepting of high fuel prices than the Conservatives for environmental reasons.

    When the main parties are all pretty much indistinguishable on the major issues of the day, that’s when you will see voting based on ‘values’ or social issues.
    They haven't announced many or any - and this is big issue with Labour at present.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Foxy said:


    Labour is seen as more likely than the Conservatives to:

    - Care about Wakefield (+18 Lab lead)
    - Be best on local issues (+18)
    - Stand up for people like me (+17)
    - Share your values (+12)
    - Be competent (+6)

    The Tories are also seen as more ‘out of touch’ (+23). (6/10)

    Applicant said:

    Foxy said:

    Boris Johnson is the most unpopular party leader in Wakefield, with a net rating of -37.

    23% have a positive view of him, 60% negative.

    Keir Starmer has a rating of -28 (21% positive, 49% negative).

    (5/10)

    Fewer people feel positively about Starmer than spaffer, partying, liar, fat arse twat Johnson.
    Lol, hes such a loser.
    Yes a 20 point lead is certainly losing.
    He will be fine as long as Johnson remains.
    If the Tories were confident they could bring it back they'd have leaked polling on other leaders doing better.

    They don't, so my assumption is that the Tory brand is fatally wounded. This feels a lot to me like the dying days of New Labour.
    Time will tell. It feels to me like Labour are just as loathed as ever and a new Tory leader will remind everyone how lucky we are not to have Starmer and his lot in number 10.
    Is Johnson thats the problem, not the brand.
    The polling will guide us post defenestration.
    That doesn't seem an accurate summary of CHB's figures. Starmer isn't popular in Wakefield, but the Labour Party is.
    By elections are referendums on the government.
    That doesn't explain the above from CHB. Labour as a party are popular in Wakefield.
    The net figures don't say much. Is it a lead in "which party is more X" (in which case given the government travails the leads are pretty small), or are they independent "is this party X or not X" (in which case we need to see the gross figures in case the lead is dwarfed by "neither".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?

    While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.
    Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today instead
    But where was Adele?

    (Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Others are saying it better than me.

    I’m in the position of fearing that the Tories will replace Boris with someone who is more likely to beat “the progressive alliance”.

    But for the sake of all that is decent, he needs to go urgently.

    Yes. Whatever your stripe, there is an immediate and urgent need for action and whilst id hate Labour winning next time, if the Tories fail to act then for the sake of decency they must be punished and pay for the failure
    Its that simple now
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Others are saying it better than me.

    I’m in the position of fearing that the Tories will replace Boris with someone who is more likely to beat “the progressive alliance”.

    But for the sake of all that is decent, he needs to go urgently.

    From the other side of the coin, Boris has been a formidable vote-magnet for the Tories - and it is not beyond the bounds of possibilities that he could be again in 2024/his replacement will be a dud. But it is worth pursuing his removal, when the people of the UK by and large believe he is a liar and unfit for the highest office in the land.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed

    It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.

    The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.

    We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
    ROFL no it isn't.
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.

    The worm is turning...

    When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).
    This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.

    Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
    That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.
    Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.

    Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.



    The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.
    Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.
    It's a non-sequiter.

    If people haven't meaningfully noticed the difference of not being a member of the single market then it does not follow that they will want to pay the price of rejoining it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?

    While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.
    Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today instead
    But where was Adele?

    (Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)
    Doesn’t she still owe a million people refunds for the cancelled postponed Vegas shows?

    Would probably have gone down as well with last night’s crowd, as inviting the politicians on stage to give thanks to the dukes of York and Sussex.
  • Will the Tories be able to cope with a woke Royal Family. That’s clearly where it is headed

    It's not my cup of tea but it's possibly that or no royal family.

    The primary objective for any conservative has to be to conserve the institution, and that may require compromises.

    We know (as plenty of international corporations have figured out) that it's what the young care about most.
    ROFL no it isn't.
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Farooq said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Another Brexiteer (Dan Hannan) says we should have stayed in the single market.

    The worm is turning...

    When the history of Brexit is written, I hope some attention is given to the post-referendum intolerance from Brexiters towards sensible discussion about the nature of what Brexit should look like. The ultras shouted down any voices calling for close alignment as literally treachery (even though that was what a lot of leavers were arguing for beforehand).
    This kind of scorched-earth tactic has negative strategic value, and it shouldn't have happened.

    Oh and before I get any whataboutery from the usual suspects, I have zero interest on lectures from people who can't also own the mistakes from their own side. I'm done listening to ultras and self-professed "hard men".
    That said, this is a full-fat hard Brexit and it's still ok: if you spun anyone British around from 2015 and dropped them into 2022 they wouldn't notice a thing, unless you showed them the feuding in the media.
    Though to spin that around, if people are not noticing a thing different, then clearly Brexit has failed to deliver. It explains the reason why "Brexit was a mistake" polls so highly.

    Soon we will have wasted a decade on this pointless self harm, before rejoining the Single Market.



    The confirmation bias is strong in this one, Luke.
    Well, you cannot have it both ways. Either Brexit has made a noticeable difference to people or it hasn't. It was you that said the latter, and wanted to Rejoin the Single Market.
    It's a non-sequiter.

    If people haven't meaningfully noticed the difference of not being a member of the single market then it does not follow that they will want to pay the price of rejoining it.
    I don't think we should rejoin the SM, that ship has sailed long ago.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    I've cashed out of the Boris exit date market.

    I think a VONC is on next week, and I'm no longer sure he'll win it.

    I'm torn on what I want. On the one hand, I'd love to see the lying git get chucked out on his arse. On the other hand if he survives and fights the next GE the Tories are, imo, nailed on to lose.

    On balance I'll take a Johnson eviction next week; I suspect the CoL crisis is going to sink the Tories at the next election even if Churchill* took over as leader.

    (*On which point, is there anything in the Conservative Party constitution that says their leader has to be alive?)
    I want what is best for the country and that is in Johnson going now. If Labour is to get back into Government we need to go beyond party political advantage, this is about something more. Decency and honour.
    And even an insane right-winger, Steve Baker say, would be preferable. I'm not sure I would enjoy his politics much more than a proper lefty would, and he does have some of the culpability for elevating BoJo the Bozo.

    But he has more than a few shreds of decency, and that matters.

    One of the things the UK body politic needs to escape from is the idea that anything goes, as long as I'm getting my way.
    If Andrea Leadsom, Steve Baker and Andrew Bridgen are all calling for Boris's head, as well as the one nation wing, then he's probably not long for this political world.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,003
    I wonder on a normal day how many flights are cancelled or severely delayed? I have a feeling its quite a few.

    Easyjet cancels 80 flights as travel disruption continues
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61607531
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    I wonder on a normal day how many flights are cancelled or severely delayed? I have a feeling its quite a few.

    Easyjet cancels 80 flights as travel disruption continues
    https://www.bbc.com/news/business-61607531

    Pre-pandemic, no more than a handful, usually caused by an unserviceable aircraft or staff sickness.

    The travel industry in general has screwed up big time. They let far too many staff go, and are belatedly realising they can’t fill the vacancies for skilled or vetted positions. It’s a global problem.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,446

    If somebody here honestly thinks wokeism is the most important issue to young voters I am not surprised the political system is in such a mess.

    Number 1 and number 2 issues are housing and environment

    The royal family is not politics but it will need to move with the Zeitgeist to survive.

    Taking a non-partisan leadership role on global environmental issues, and helping to advocate for diversity and inclusion, both domestically and through the Commonwealth, is probably the best way the Royal Family has for retaining the support of younger generations.

    I'm not expecting the Royals to enter debates on housing, trans rights or veganism though, and nor should they.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Sandpit said:

    HYUFD said:

    Sandpit said:

    I missed yesterday's Jubilee gig. Did Cliff pitch up to sing "Carrie doesn't live here anymore"?

    While the concert itself looked brilliant, the British artists featured were quite B-list. Surprised not to see Sir Cliff, Sir Paul, not even Ed Sheeran there.
    Sir Cliff and Ed Sheeran are at the Pageant today instead
    But where was Adele?

    (Bit of a risk on the sweariness I guess!)
    Doesn’t she still owe a million people refunds for the cancelled postponed Vegas shows?

    Would probably have gone down as well with last night’s crowd, as inviting the politicians on stage to give thanks to the dukes of York and Sussex.
    Really? You think the crowd was full of people who should have been in Vegas instead?

    Even if she had been booed, it would have been put down to Boris being present....
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220

    Whatever happens this coming week whoever came up with the Queen having tea with Paddington Bear is a genius and it genuinely seems to have captivated the nation

    I'm reminded, in a good way, of 2012. Perhaps the last time that national pride was an unforced thing without culture war undertones.

    It would be nice to get back to that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,003
    edited June 2022
    Several hundred remain at illegal rave site in Cornwall
    https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-cornwall-61696302

    I presume the plod are there just taking coffee and tea orders.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THREAD
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    NEW THREAD

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Omnium said:

    Labour are ahead of the Conservatives in every social class. They have a 12-point lead with men and a 28-point lead with women.

    The Conservatives are behind Labour in every age group apart from the over-65s. (3/10)

    Johnson has managed to unite Wakefield against him, he really is the Corbyn of the Tories

    An interesting few posts. I'm not sure if you're 'not-Tory' or 'Labour'.

    I'm pretty sure there will be sharp changes before GE2024.
    Indeed, the economy is looking rather desperate

    Just caught the Nadine assertion that Lee Mack's joke was aimed at Starmer not Johnson. OK?
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Tiverton/Honiton. 3 three parties pre Postal Vote leaflet, delivered by the mail.
    BBC have allegedly been told by a Tory MP who visited the seat that the reception for the Cons is "appalling", certainly the Lib Dems are reporting severe disatisfaction and emnity towards Johnson!. Understand they have already delivered 3 seperate leaflets to most areas!!!!
    Whether it is all correct we will find out in 18 days time.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 288
    edited June 2022
    theakes said:

    Tiverton/Honiton. 3 three parties pre Postal Vote leaflet, delivered by the mail.
    BBC have allegedly been told by a Tory MP who visited the seat that the reception for the Cons is "appalling", certainly the Lib Dems are reporting severe disatisfaction and emnity towards Johnson!. Understand they have already delivered 3 seperate leaflets to most areas!!!!
    Whether it is all correct we will find out in 18 days time.

    Been the usual newspaper stuff thus far, about 3 each. Telephone canvassed twice and asked for poster site and help by both the main players.

    The Tories just take it on the chin when you tell them you won't be voting for them while Boris is leader. Sounds like they have heard it all a thousand times already.
This discussion has been closed.