Hunt takes clear lead in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Hunt takes clear lead in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
With just a possibility that we might soon be seeing a Conservative leadership contest the former Health Secretary and the one who made the final two last time, Jeremy Hunt, is now the clear favourite.
Comments
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Test0
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Just over 5/1 on Betfair for next leader and next prime minister.
ETA although according to Oddschecker, you can get better prices by shopping around the books.0 -
Hunt is too normal for the job.2
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Letters + suspected letters = 50.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=01 -
Ludicrous, Hunt got just 33% with Conservative members in 2019.
Hunt also is on -31% with the public on whether he has what it takes to be a good PM, even worse than Boris on -25% and miles behind Wallace on -12% or Javid on -22% and only ahead of Raab, Gove and Patel amongst top tier Tories
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos April 2022 Political Monitor_290422_PUBLIC.pdf3 -
Right, and a bunch of those 33% have since left the party in disgust.HYUFD said:Ludicrous, Hunt got just 33% with Conservative members in 2019.
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I met him when he was FS. He really wasn't that normal then. He has had a very good pandemic though.Jonathan said:Hunt is too normal for the job.
On Isam's (late of this parish) charisma quotient, neither Hunt not any of the other runners and riders are much more exciting than Starmer.0 -
23 Yes; 27 Suspected.Andy_JS said:Letters + suspected letters = 50.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0
Hmmm.0 -
the old rule used to be that the Tory favourite would never win...(until BJ) and I think this will apply, its hard to gauge what might happen (big might) but I cant see how the MPs would split... I jus cant see Hunt making it (though I think he'd be ok at the job)0
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I have to like a man who says one of his heroes is William Wilberforce.
What do you folks know about Lucia Guo?0 -
An instruction or looking forward to the contest with New Zealand?MikeSmithson said:Test
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John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing0 -
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?3 -
Judging by Labour's approach to the referendum on electoral reform in 2012 I wont hold my breath....rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?0 -
If the UK were to move to some form of multi member PR (which I am somewhat doubtful of, but that's another story), then the existing political parties would all likely end up splitting.swing_voter said:
Judging by Labour's approach to the referendum on electoral reform in 2012 I wont hold my breath....rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
We only have the parties we have, because of the electoral system we have.5 -
Doubtful.rcs1000 said:
If the UK were to move to some form of multi member PR (which I am somewhat doubtful of, but that's another story), then the existing political parties would all likely end up splitting.swing_voter said:
Judging by Labour's approach to the referendum on electoral reform in 2012 I wont hold my breath....rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
We only have the parties we have, because of the electoral system we have.
If NZ is any guide, the resultant situation would still be Con and Lab as the major parties, with Green and LD as minors. Reform too, but would need charismatic leadership
There would certainly be some breakaway parties but the lesson from NZ is that these are very very difficult to sustain unless they talk to a genuine political cleavage in the electorate.1 -
it'd change the Scottish situation though,,,Gardenwalker said:
Doubtful.rcs1000 said:
If the UK were to move to some form of multi member PR (which I am somewhat doubtful of, but that's another story), then the existing political parties would all likely end up splitting.swing_voter said:
Judging by Labour's approach to the referendum on electoral reform in 2012 I wont hold my breath....rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
We only have the parties we have, because of the electoral system we have.
If NZ is any guide, the resultant situation would still be Con and Lab as the major parties, with Green and LD as minors. Reform too, but would need charismatic leadership
There would certainly be some breakaway parties but the lesson from NZ is that these are very very difficult to sustain unless they talk to a genuine political cleavage in the electorate.0 -
Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.0
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No, but it could do for the Tory party itself for good, as a majority party.rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
Remember that until its current incarnation, and to a lesser extent still, it has always been a broad coalition.0 -
(FPT)
Where do you think ‘defund the police’ (however stupid the slogan) came from ?rcs1000 said:
So fucked up.Nigelb said:The Uvalde PD and Uvalde Independent School District police force are no longer cooperating with the Texas Dept. of Public Safety's investigation into Robb Elementary School shooting, multiple law enforcement sources tell
@ABC News.
https://mobile.twitter.com/ABC/status/1531746408000368648
US policing makes ours, the Dicks and Hogan Hopelesses notwithstanding, look a model of good practice.
Note that 40% of the town’s budget went to the police department.0 -
Biden: U.S. will provide precision rockets to Ukraine
The rockets are to be used solely in Ukraine, not against targets within Russia.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/31/biden-ukraine-rockets-russia-00036225
48 mile max range.
It’s probably going to take a few weeks to get there, but it will severely constrain Russia’s ability to use its artillery.3 -
.This is going to be fun…..
Supreme Court leak investigation heats up as clerks are asked for phone records in unprecedented move
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/31/politics/supreme-court-roe-v-wade-leak-phone-records/index.html0 -
- “Economic woes could hurt Tories and SNP at the same time.”Farooq said:
Economic woes could hurt Tories and SNP at the same time.StuartDickson said:
Lab Maj still looks dreadful value. Key indicators are:Farooq said:
Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.StuartDickson said:When’s Crossover?
NOM 1.82
Con Maj 3.85
Lab Maj 4.6
- the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov
- and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
Far from nailed on, but the central estimate has to be economic pain leading to reactions against parties in power. If we tip into recession and start to see job losses, the VI *could* shift a fair amount.
Absolutely, Sterling becoming an Emerging Market currency is the fault of the Scottish Government. 😉
But you actually make a serious point. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the dire economic situation will be blamed on all four incumbents: Drakeford, Johnson, O'Neill and Sturgeon. However, evidence that that is what is happening is weak. For example, the SNP just won our eleventh election in a row, with our strongest ever performance in local government elections.
And this being a betting blog, what do punters think? Look at the prices of the principal opponents of the English and Scottish first ministers:
Next English FM/PM Starmer 7/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Sarwar 16/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Ross 18/1
Bearing in mind that the Starmer price is very long due to an imminent VONC in Johnson, it is clear that the markets judge that Johnson being kicked out is much more likely than Sturgeon being kicked out. Why? Well, part of the answer must surely be that the coming economic maelstrom is going to get blamed fairly and squarely on the Brexit Revolutionary Party.0 -
There are a few commentators who have mastered the art of being paid for writing the same article over and over again. John Gray is one of them. Dan Hodges is another. Then, of course, there is Brendan O'Neill, who is the master!Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
2 -
Absolutely. PR would be a boon for Unionists.swing_voter said:
it'd change the Scottish situation though,,,Gardenwalker said:
Doubtful.rcs1000 said:
If the UK were to move to some form of multi member PR (which I am somewhat doubtful of, but that's another story), then the existing political parties would all likely end up splitting.swing_voter said:
Judging by Labour's approach to the referendum on electoral reform in 2012 I wont hold my breath....rcs1000 said:
Sometimes I think John Gray is a bit of an idiot.Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
We only have the parties we have, because of the electoral system we have.
If NZ is any guide, the resultant situation would still be Con and Lab as the major parties, with Green and LD as minors. Reform too, but would need charismatic leadership
There would certainly be some breakaway parties but the lesson from NZ is that these are very very difficult to sustain unless they talk to a genuine political cleavage in the electorate.1 -
Traditionally, in the view if the church, is it not first necessary to acknowledge what you did wrong ?
Archbishop of Canterbury suggests Prince Andrew wants to ‘make amends’
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/31/archbishop-of-canterbury-suggests-prince-andrew-wants-to-make-amends0 -
Scientists discover ‘biggest plant on Earth’ off Western Australian coast
seagrass meadow
Genetic testing has determined a single 4,500-year-old seagrass may have spread over 200 sq km of underwater seafloor – about 20,000 football fields
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/01/what-the-hell-australian-scientists-discover-biggest-plant-on-earth-off-wa-coast1 -
I'd add Boris Johnson's time as a journalist (of sorts) into that category as well...SouthamObserver said:
There are a few commentators who have mastered the art of being paid for writing the same article over and over again. John Gray is one of them. Dan Hodges is another. Then, of course, there is Brendan O'Neill, who is the master!Andy_JS said:John Gray in the New Statesman.
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing1 -
FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
Biden in the NYT:Nigelb said:Biden: U.S. will provide precision rockets to Ukraine
The rockets are to be used solely in Ukraine, not against targets within Russia.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/31/biden-ukraine-rockets-russia-00036225
48 mile max range.
It’s probably going to take a few weeks to get there, but it will severely constrain Russia’s ability to use its artillery.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/biden-ukraine-strategy.html
0 -
Shocking but typical that the SNP will refuse to take responsibility for decisions taken by the PM, Chancellor and the BoE. Only by taking the blame and being kicked out by voters will the SNP show that they're serious about Scottish independence.StuartDickson said:
- “Economic woes could hurt Tories and SNP at the same time.”Farooq said:
Economic woes could hurt Tories and SNP at the same time.StuartDickson said:
Lab Maj still looks dreadful value. Key indicators are:Farooq said:
Lab Maj looks a bit tempting right now. But I think it's a losing bet if Boris goes, and I'm not 100% confident he'll stay.StuartDickson said:When’s Crossover?
NOM 1.82
Con Maj 3.85
Lab Maj 4.6
- the Midlands VI: even-stevens in the latest YouGov
- and SLab VI: an unimpressive 22% in the latest YouGov (they need 30% to even get into double figures for Jock seats
Far from nailed on, but the central estimate has to be economic pain leading to reactions against parties in power. If we tip into recession and start to see job losses, the VI *could* shift a fair amount.
Absolutely, Sterling becoming an Emerging Market currency is the fault of the Scottish Government. 😉
But you actually make a serious point. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the dire economic situation will be blamed on all four incumbents: Drakeford, Johnson, O'Neill and Sturgeon. However, evidence that that is what is happening is weak. For example, the SNP just won our eleventh election in a row, with our strongest ever performance in local government elections.
And this being a betting blog, what do punters think? Look at the prices of the principal opponents of the English and Scottish first ministers:
Next English FM/PM Starmer 7/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Sarwar 16/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Ross 18/1
Bearing in mind that the Starmer price is very long due to an imminent VONC in Johnson, it is clear that the markets judge that Johnson being kicked out is much more likely than Sturgeon being kicked out. Why? Well, part of the answer must surely be that the coming economic maelstrom is going to get blamed fairly and squarely on the Brexit Revolutionary Party.0 -
Nothing says sorry like £10m+ of mummy's money.Nigelb said:Traditionally, in the view if the church, is it not first necessary to acknowledge what you did wrong ?
Archbishop of Canterbury suggests Prince Andrew wants to ‘make amends’
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/31/archbishop-of-canterbury-suggests-prince-andrew-wants-to-make-amends4 -
As a victim of a paedophile rapist it is not the place of the Archbishop of Canterbury to forgive. Only victims could possibly be in a position to do that.
It was crass of Welby but he was led into the trap by Tom Bradby.5 -
Anyway, good morning everyone.
Interesting about Jeremy Hunt. What he would do is shore up the Blue Wall and I really think the tories need to think seriously about that. The current trajectory of this party is profoundly un-Conservative.0 -
It's surely a sell at that price, no?HYUFD said:Ludicrous, Hunt got just 33% with Conservative members in 2019.
Hunt also is on -31% with the public on whether he has what it takes to be a good PM, even worse than Boris on -25% and miles behind Wallace on -12% or Javid on -22% and only ahead of Raab, Gove and Patel amongst top tier Tories
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos April 2022 Political Monitor_290422_PUBLIC.pdf1 -
I dislike Welby a lot, but I didn’t realise he was this stupid. Presumably he’s talking about Andrew’s friendship with Epstein, but it isn’t clear.Nigelb said:Traditionally, in the view if the church, is it not first necessary to acknowledge what you did wrong ?
Archbishop of Canterbury suggests Prince Andrew wants to ‘make amends’
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/31/archbishop-of-canterbury-suggests-prince-andrew-wants-to-make-amends1 -
Jesus Christ - it's spreading faster than the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And people say we should worry about Putin.Nigelb said:Scientists discover ‘biggest plant on Earth’ off Western Australian coast
seagrass meadow
Genetic testing has determined a single 4,500-year-old seagrass may have spread over 200 sq km of underwater seafloor – about 20,000 football fields
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/01/what-the-hell-australian-scientists-discover-biggest-plant-on-earth-off-wa-coast1 -
I'd be on Scotland at that price.StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
Unfortunately for your proto-fascist/welsh nationalist wing of the party, the contest is coming. No more excuses. No more defending law breaking and corruption and demeaning our parliamentary system.HYUFD said:Ludicrous, Hunt got just 33% with Conservative members in 2019.
Hunt also is on -31% with the public on whether he has what it takes to be a good PM, even worse than Boris on -25% and miles behind Wallace on -12% or Javid on -22% and only ahead of Raab, Gove and Patel amongst top tier Tories
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos April 2022 Political Monitor_290422_PUBLIC.pdf
It's on. Look at Graham Brady's face yesterday, a man who knows he is about to have his day in the sun. The party is facing down a big election loss and potentially the rewriting of our electoral system against it. So it can go knee-jerk and stupid - elect an IDS or contemplate a Leadsom in the form of some of the names that get mentioned. Appease the mouth-foamers wing of your membership.
Or it can consider this to be the last chance. You still can retain power after the next election, but you need a sane leader and a bonfire of Johnsonism, its (lack of) policies and a restoration of the Conservative party as opposed whatever you want to call this proto-fascist English nationalist tax and spend international pariah you support.0 -
Allegedly a peer of the realm on Twitter but not seen on mainstream who will be very cautiousStuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
0 -
Dr Paul Williams (late of Stockton South) spoke in hushed tones about how effective Hunt was as Health Secretary. How engaging he was when you spoke to him personally, a man quietly on top of both his brief and the need to be political about it.Mexicanpete said:
I met him when he was FS. He really wasn't that normal then. He has had a very good pandemic though.Jonathan said:Hunt is too normal for the job.
On Isam's (late of this parish) charisma quotient, neither Hunt not any of the other runners and riders are much more exciting than Starmer.0 -
I don't know about exciting, but Hunt is more charming in person than Starmer is.Mexicanpete said:
I met him when he was FS. He really wasn't that normal then. He has had a very good pandemic though.Jonathan said:Hunt is too normal for the job.
On Isam's (late of this parish) charisma quotient, neither Hunt not any of the other runners and riders are much more exciting than Starmer.0 -
The landscape in 2019 was very different. Boris Johnson stood on a platform to Get Brexit Done. Following what many members saw as May's dithering and the botched Brexit it's remarkable that Hunt did as well as he did.HYUFD said:Ludicrous, Hunt got just 33% with Conservative members in 2019.
The landscape three years later is very different.0 -
To win in 90 mins, I assume.Peter_the_Punter said:
I'd be on Scotland at that price.StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
I just spoke to my Boris-loving Surrey neighbour, mentioning Mike's post. Here's her response verbatim:
'Ah well I've always rated Jeremy Hunt and have said so many times.'
She was rather glowing and it's the first time I've ever heard her relaxed and happy about the prospect of Johnson going.
0 -
Supposedly she has dumped him and shacked up with x, with yet another Johnson superinjunction to shut everyone up. Like the last one of those, the press can't talk about what's disappeared into the black hole, but can talk about the ooh what a massive black hole / I wonder where Carrie is juxtaposition.StuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
No idea whether its true or not. I think the last time she was exhibited in public was the PM physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.0 -
So basically I think Hunt would shore up the Blue Wall.
The problem will be the Red Wall but it's my belief that their support is fickle anyway. If they're not seeing food on the table they won't stick with Johnson's newfound reach.
Ditching Conservative policies was an incredible mistake by Johnson-Sunak. To become a socialist party of High Tax and Spend is red rag to the bull.1 -
Great of the Scottish government to slash train services so that people living as far away Edinburgh can't get the train home afterwards. Drivers interviewed up here in the Press and Journal say the cuts are absurd and have left them "twiddling their thumbs" available for driving with no trains to drive...StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
Well put.Heathener said:As a victim of a paedophile rapist it is not the place of the Archbishop of Canterbury to forgive. Only victims could possibly be in a position to do that.
It was crass of Welby but he was led into the trap by Tom Bradby.
Welby has been a pitiful Archbishop of Canterbury. This is just another sorry episode.1 -
I am onPeter_the_Punter said:
I'd be on Scotland at that price.StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
It was profoundly unwise timing.Heathener said:As a victim of a paedophile rapist it is not the place of the Archbishop of Canterbury to forgive. Only victims could possibly be in a position to do that.
It was crass of Welby but he was led into the trap by Tom Bradby.
The Establishment should just keep their big mouths shut. At least for another month.1 -
Nationalise it. Oh wait...RochdalePioneers said:
Great of the Scottish government to slash train services so that people living as far away Edinburgh can't get the train home afterwards. Drivers interviewed up here in the Press and Journal say the cuts are absurd and have left them "twiddling their thumbs" available for driving with no trains to drive...StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.60 -
The crisis in the NHS is noose hanging around Hunts premiership.0
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It’s hardly being fickle in your support if you move away from a party that has destroyed your standard of living and taken the food from your table. That would apply to any party. The red wall is not uniform. Some seats are naturally gravitating towards the Tories, some seats will swing back.Heathener said:So basically I think Hunt would shore up the Blue Wall.
The problem will be the Red Wall but it's my belief that their support is fickle anyway. If they're not seeing food on the table they won't stick with Johnson's newfound reach.
Ditching Conservative policies was an incredible mistake by Johnson-Sunak. To become a socialist party of High Tax and Spend is red rag to the bull.
People vote for a party expecting the party to improve their lives. The Tories are failing to do,that. If they had succeeded they would keep,the red wall.2 -
Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/01/the-decade-that-broke-britain-the-disastrous-decisions-that-left-millions-in-a-cost-of-living-crisis
A thorough account of how we got to a situation where millions of Britons are living with poverty and hunger.0 -
X is Zac Goldsmith isn't itRochdalePioneers said:
Supposedly she has dumped him and shacked up with x, with yet another Johnson superinjunction to shut everyone up. Like the last one of those, the press can't talk about what's disappeared into the black hole, but can talk about the ooh what a massive black hole / I wonder where Carrie is juxtaposition.StuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
No idea whether its true or not. I think the last time she was exhibited in public was the PM physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.
0 -
Good morning everyone. There's another possibility, surely. Boris scrapes home and Durham issue VPN's to Starmer and Rayner.
Boris immediately calls a GE, on the grounds that 'the public have a right choose their PM'!0 -
Who was it said 'you might think that but I couldn't possibly comment!'?Pulpstar said:
X is Zac Goldsmith isn't itRochdalePioneers said:
Supposedly she has dumped him and shacked up with x, with yet another Johnson superinjunction to shut everyone up. Like the last one of those, the press can't talk about what's disappeared into the black hole, but can talk about the ooh what a massive black hole / I wonder where Carrie is juxtaposition.StuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
No idea whether its true or not. I think the last time she was exhibited in public was the PM physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.1 -
oh for the FTPA....OldKingCole said:Good morning everyone. There's another possibility, surely. Boris scrapes home and Durham issue VPN's to Starmer and Rayner.
Boris immediately calls a GE, on the grounds that 'the public have a right choose their PM'!1 -
So the comedy scenario is thus:
1. Graham Brady books a big room in parliament early next week and announces a contest
2. Consternation and uproar from the Tories. The loon wing angrily attack their traitor colleagues, the moral / nervous ones attack back
3. Johnson scrapes over the line. Badly damaged, with ongoing attacks by the moral vs the vacuous.
4. We really now must move on says team clown
5. "Oh hell no" says the public, with a fresh poll plunge for the Tories
6. Tories get smashed in both Wakefield and Devon.
7. Despite the "he's safe for 12 months" rule the slide into the mire only accelerates.
8. He resigns, but instead of a swift contest and a sane leader paraded at conference we have a fractious battle with the remaining loons desperate to hold onto control of the party.
9. Instead Conference is a contest where the membership listen to "vote for me" speeches from favoured candidates. A choice of Patel or Baker becomes their option...0 -
I remember the Winter of Discontent. It was bad, but there were no food banks. As an regular visitor to England and Scotland I have witnessed the societal decline with a degree of objectivity. It is palpable that the island is in strategic, perhaps unstoppable decline. Scots should get out and become a normal nation again. One which cares for *all* her citizens.OnlyLivingBoy said:https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jun/01/the-decade-that-broke-britain-the-disastrous-decisions-that-left-millions-in-a-cost-of-living-crisis
A thorough account of how we got to a situation where millions of Britons are living with poverty and hunger.
1 -
As I kept pointing out to the "just nationalise it" wing of the Labour party, that isn't the solution when you aren't letting the industry run itself. Ministers and civil servants have no idea how to run a railway, and when they start to micromanage it all turns into an expensive mess.tlg86 said:
Nationalise it. Oh wait...RochdalePioneers said:
Great of the Scottish government to slash train services so that people living as far away Edinburgh can't get the train home afterwards. Drivers interviewed up here in the Press and Journal say the cuts are absurd and have left them "twiddling their thumbs" available for driving with no trains to drive...StuartDickson said:FIFA World Cup Play-Off Semi-Final
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.6
The solution is as demonstrated by most European governments. A StateCo. Owned by the state but run commercially. The state removes the need to make profit and enables very cheap borrowing for investment and can subsidise as heavily as it wants to. But does not dictate the seat spacing and lack of tray tables on the Thameslink fleet (other examples of government meddling can be found)0 -
Yep. he is enough of a lady tunnel to do such a thing.OldKingCole said:Good morning everyone. There's another possibility, surely. Boris scrapes home and Durham issue VPN's to Starmer and Rayner.
Boris immediately calls a GE, on the grounds that 'the public have a right choose their PM'!0 -
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/01/uk-raspberry-picking-robot-soft-fruit
Necessity leading to invention again. I really thought this was hard enough that it would take longer.
Some smart people in the UK.2 -
Aha! The old defamation concern.malcolmg said:
Allegedly a peer of the realm on Twitter but not seen on mainstream who will be very cautiousStuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
It is pretty easy to catch the gist!
Poor old de Pfeffel. It’s not just him that can pfeffel around…0 -
I’m sure we will be reminded constantly that he gave us this mess. Longest serving Health Secretary isn’t going be able to run from his record.tlg86 said:
I doubt many people remember him being health secretary, let alone what happened when we was doing the job.Jonathan said:The crisis in the NHS is noose hanging around Hunts premiership.
1 -
My only memory of his time as health secretary is that he stood up to junior doctors.Heathener said:0 -
If Boris won a vote of no confidence from his MPs I think there would be a few defections or a small group split away. It would be suicide for them but it might be enough to bring the govt down. That is my fantasy punt.RochdalePioneers said:So the comedy scenario is thus:
1. Graham Brady books a big room in parliament early next week and announces a contest
2. Consternation and uproar from the Tories. The loon wing angrily attack their traitor colleagues, the moral / nervous ones attack back
3. Johnson scrapes over the line. Badly damaged, with ongoing attacks by the moral vs the vacuous.
4. We really now must move on says team clown
5. "Oh hell no" says the public, with a fresh poll plunge for the Tories
6. Tories get smashed in both Wakefield and Devon.
7. Despite the "he's safe for 12 months" rule the slide into the mire only accelerates.
8. He resigns, but instead of a swift contest and a sane leader paraded at conference we have a fractious battle with the remaining loons desperate to hold onto control of the party.
9. Instead Conference is a contest where the membership listen to "vote for me" speeches from favoured candidates. A choice of Patel or Baker becomes their option...1 -
Wishful thinking. The only interesting thing about Hunt is that he was Health Secretary for so long. He has tremendous baggage here. Each week for the next two years at PMQs “ As the longest serving Health Secretary like to explain why …”.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).0 -
I have great respect for you Old King Cole and I would put pretty much nothing past Boris Johnson but the idea that he would press nuclear (an unfortunate metaphor) is I think too much of a stretch.
The one thing about the current Labour Party and membership is that they're ravenous for power. In the unlikely event of both Starmer and Rayner resigning and Johnson calling a snap election, Labour would either a) defer SKS' resignation until after the election or b) have a caretaker leader of prowess. There are plenty of very serious contenders on their shadow cabinet who could fulfill a 6-month role like that including Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband.
If Boris did that the tories would be wiped out0 -
Morning all. Lay the favourite.3
-
No way the members vote for the guy who put the pandemic preparedness plan in the circular filing cabinet under his desk.3
-
After the real v fake tickets were shown by the French, you'd think news outlets would be careful about what they show. Yesterday it was Sky, this morning it's the Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/31/number-of-fake-liverpool-champions-league-final-tickets-was-just-2800
The tickets on display in the image are clearly fakes.0 -
He had a good pandemic though. Very sensible and a safe pair of hands attitude.Sandpit said:No way the members vote for the guy who put the pandemic preparedness plan in the circular filing cabinet under his desk.
He's also outside the Cabinet and I think the stench of partygate, cronyism and corruption would be very hard for anyone in Johnson's team to shake off.
I'll put this slightly more firmly: living out in the Middle East as you do I really don't think you have your finger on the pulse of this country.1 -
Hunt will not win. I can understand why people would think he's the best available halfway plausible choice. The sensible choice, if you will.
But the Tory party never gave the leadership to Ken Clarke, so why would it start making sensible choices now?2 -
Jeremy Hunt has a new book out, Zero, about reducing accident rates in the NHS. I'd not be quite so sure that his stint as Health Secretary or even his disastrous response to Exercise Cygnus disqualify him.Jonathan said:
Wishful thinking. The only interesting thing about Hunt is that he was Health Secretary for so long. He has tremendous baggage here. Each week for the next two years at PMQs “ As the longest serving Health Secretary like to explain why …”.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).0 -
All of a sudden, when you can’t find people to work for £3 an hour - sorry, work for the national minimum wage for an honest 35 hours a week, while staying in your £200 a week bunk bed - you realise that either you invest in capital equipment or don’t have a harvest.LostPassword said:https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/01/uk-raspberry-picking-robot-soft-fruit
Necessity leading to invention again. I really thought this was hard enough that it would take longer.
Some smart people in the UK.2 -
You came in very, very, strongly opinionated from the get-go on Saturday evening with some remarks about Liverpool fans that I think you should have retracted.tlg86 said:
My opinion is that you should drop it and wait for the full proper and professionally conducted enquiry. Then by all means pitch your opinion.
There's far too much of this on the internet, including on here: people spouting opinions when they are not experts and don't have full command of the facts.
Peace.
x1 -
I don’t mean to be childish, but I just cannot envisage a prime minister called Hunt. It is like giving your opponents ten free penalty kicks.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Jeremy Hunt has a new book out, Zero, about reducing accident rates in the NHS. I'd not be quite so sure that his stint as Health Secretary or even his disastrous response to Exercise Cygnus disqualify him.Jonathan said:
Wishful thinking. The only interesting thing about Hunt is that he was Health Secretary for so long. He has tremendous baggage here. Each week for the next two years at PMQs “ As the longest serving Health Secretary like to explain why …”.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).0 -
How did he have a good pandemic? He was a backbencher throughout, able to carp from the sidelines without any of the actual responsibility of dealing with it.Heathener said:
He had a good pandemic though. Very sensible and a safe pair of hands attitude.Sandpit said:No way the members vote for the guy who put the pandemic preparedness plan in the circular filing cabinet under his desk.
Nadhim Zahawi, now he had a good pandemic.0 -
Thank you for the kind remarks. I am not sure that you are right; I think the Conservatives would have a significant part of the press behind them.Heathener said:I have great respect for you Old King Cole and I would put pretty much nothing past Boris Johnson but the idea that he would press nuclear (an unfortunate metaphor) is I think too much of a stretch.
The one thing about the current Labour Party and membership is that they're ravenous for power. In the unlikely event of both Starmer and Rayner resigning and Johnson calling a snap election, Labour would either a) defer SKS' resignation until after the election or b) have a caretaker leader of prowess. There are plenty of very serious contenders on their shadow cabinet who could fulfill a 6-month role like that including Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband.
If Boris did that the tories would be wiped out
"Better the devil you know", as opposed to "someone whom the Labour Party might vote out themselves in six months" would be the offering.
And given the trouble our nation is in .....
0 -
Whether it is true or not is another matter. Twitter can act as a bubble, retweeting the same information, true or false, until there is a critical mass of gossip all tracing back to one source. Is there anything in the foreign press, say in Sweden, for instance? Or a mass of stories in the press here that say nothing but get the names out?StuartDickson said:
Aha! The old defamation concern.malcolmg said:
Allegedly a peer of the realm on Twitter but not seen on mainstream who will be very cautiousStuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
It is pretty easy to catch the gist!
Poor old de Pfeffel. It’s not just him that can pfeffel around…2 -
Hunt being favourite does feel a bit... Andy Burnham.Sandpit said:Morning all. Lay the favourite.
More an expression of what a block of people would like to happen (and he very probably is the best candidate to clear up Big Dog's many messages on the carpet), than a prediction of what's likely to happen.5 -
Once again I think you reveal your absence from these shores.Sandpit said:
How did he have a good pandemic? He was a backbencher throughout, able to carp from the sidelines without any of the actual responsibility of dealing with it.Heathener said:
He had a good pandemic though. Very sensible and a safe pair of hands attitude.Sandpit said:No way the members vote for the guy who put the pandemic preparedness plan in the circular filing cabinet under his desk.
Jeremy Hunt was really good in the early stages, probably I have to say because of his Asian connections. He knew what was coming and came out with plans which were far ahead of the curve of Johnson's typically slack and careless attitude.0 -
We go through this every time with Liverpool. David Conn writes:Heathener said:
You came in very, very, strongly opinionated from the get-go on Saturday evening with some remarks about Liverpool fans that I think you should have retracted.tlg86 said:
My opinion is that you should drop it and wait for the full proper and professionally conducted enquiry. Then by all means pitch your opinion.
There's far too much of this on the internet, including on here: people spouting opinions when they are not experts and don't have full command of the facts.
Peace.
x
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/31/no-excuse-for-uefa-echoing-hillsborough-by-instantly-blaming-liverpool-fans-paris
The ministers’ claims, that there were 30-40,000 Liverpool fans with fake or no tickets, look ludicrous – where, physically, were all these tens of thousands of people? – but there will have been some, a routine issue to be dealt with at any major match.
Sorry, no. People turning up with fake tickets is not a routine issue to be dealt with. People turning up with fake tickets need to be called out for what they are. That doesn't mean that the authorities get off. Far from it. Liverpool fans have a right to be protected from other knobhead Liverpool fans. But we shouldn't be afraid to call out the knobheads.0 -
Good morningkjh said:
If Boris won a vote of no confidence from his MPs I think there would be a few defections or a small group split away. It would be suicide for them but it might be enough to bring the govt down. That is my fantasy punt.RochdalePioneers said:So the comedy scenario is thus:
1. Graham Brady books a big room in parliament early next week and announces a contest
2. Consternation and uproar from the Tories. The loon wing angrily attack their traitor colleagues, the moral / nervous ones attack back
3. Johnson scrapes over the line. Badly damaged, with ongoing attacks by the moral vs the vacuous.
4. We really now must move on says team clown
5. "Oh hell no" says the public, with a fresh poll plunge for the Tories
6. Tories get smashed in both Wakefield and Devon.
7. Despite the "he's safe for 12 months" rule the slide into the mire only accelerates.
8. He resigns, but instead of a swift contest and a sane leader paraded at conference we have a fractious battle with the remaining loons desperate to hold onto control of the party.
9. Instead Conference is a contest where the membership listen to "vote for me" speeches from favoured candidates. A choice of Patel or Baker becomes their option...
The vonc next week will fatally wound Boris and if he survives the forthcoming by election results will be a massacre and it is then upto the rebels to inform the whips that they will vote against HMG until he is gone
On Hunt I do not see him winning the membership vote even if he gets to the last 2 and I rather think it is hope by some over expectation
As for Boris calling an election I just cannot see that at all
Anyway, let's s hope he is history very soon and I am confident that my prediction some time ago that a vonc will happen next week will come to pass2 -
That’s what happens, when a very mediocre healthcare system is allowed to become a national religion.Taz said:
Ever since I can remember the NHS has been in one crisis or another. The boy has cried wolf so many times now.Jonathan said:The crisis in the NHS is noose hanging around Hunts premiership.
3 -
The worst thing about the internet is precisely this.tlg86 said:
Sorry but no ... we shouldn't be afraid to call out the knobheads.Heathener said:
You came in very, very, strongly opinionated from the get-go on Saturday evening with some remarks about Liverpool fans that I think you should have retracted.tlg86 said:
My opinion is that you should drop it and wait for the full proper and professionally conducted enquiry. Then by all means pitch your opinion.
There's far too much of this on the internet, including on here: people spouting opinions when they are not experts and don't have full command of the facts.
Peace.
x
Someone failing to recognise or admit their own error, becoming more entrenched and opinionated.
Sorry really is the hardest word.
Have a good day everyone.
xx0 -
That had ‘Marriage Made in Hell’ right from the second Westminster Cathedral imprudently opened their door to the twice-divorced Oaf and his latest mug. The whole thing was just tacky beyond belief. If there is a Good Boris in there, deep inside the repulsive, corpulent Bad Boris, it must be suffering an agonising, tortuous demise. I hope he finds redemption once he’s out of the public eye. There is hope for every soul… if they truly repent.RochdalePioneers said:
Supposedly she has dumped him and shacked up with x, with yet another Johnson superinjunction to shut everyone up. Like the last one of those, the press can't talk about what's disappeared into the black hole, but can talk about the ooh what a massive black hole / I wonder where Carrie is juxtaposition.StuartDickson said:Why is Twitter full of speculation about Carrie and Boris Johnson divorcing? Have I missed something? After a quick search I cannot see anything in the establishment media.
No idea whether its true or not. I think the last time she was exhibited in public was the PM physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.
- “… physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.”
Presumably she voted Lib Dem.1 -
I'm not the one that turned up to a football match with a fake ticket.Heathener said:
The worst thing about the internet is precisely this.tlg86 said:
Sorry but no ... we shouldn't be afraid to call out the knobheads.Heathener said:
You came in very, very, strongly opinionated from the get-go on Saturday evening with some remarks about Liverpool fans that I think you should have retracted.tlg86 said:
My opinion is that you should drop it and wait for the full proper and professionally conducted enquiry. Then by all means pitch your opinion.
There's far too much of this on the internet, including on here: people spouting opinions when they are not experts and don't have full command of the facts.
Peace.
x
Someone failing to recognise or admit their own error, becoming more entrenched and opinionated.
Sorry really is the hardest word.
Have a good day everyone.
xx0 -
There was a Cabinet minister called BallsStuartDickson said:
I don’t mean to be childish, but I just cannot envisage a prime minister called Hunt. It is like giving your opponents ten free penalty kicks.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Jeremy Hunt has a new book out, Zero, about reducing accident rates in the NHS. I'd not be quite so sure that his stint as Health Secretary or even his disastrous response to Exercise Cygnus disqualify him.Jonathan said:
Wishful thinking. The only interesting thing about Hunt is that he was Health Secretary for so long. He has tremendous baggage here. Each week for the next two years at PMQs “ As the longest serving Health Secretary like to explain why …”.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).0
