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Hunt takes clear lead in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Hunt takes clear lead in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
With just a possibility that we might soon be seeing a Conservative leadership contest the former Health Secretary and the one who made the final two last time, Jeremy Hunt, is now the clear favourite.
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ETA although according to Oddschecker, you can get better prices by shopping around the books.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dKQnAE3y-aQ--tgHvKEdKg9jyG-zwEsilRqgEFNbCt8/edit#gid=0
Hunt also is on -31% with the public on whether he has what it takes to be a good PM, even worse than Boris on -25% and miles behind Wallace on -12% or Javid on -22% and only ahead of Raab, Gove and Patel amongst top tier Tories
https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2022-04/Ipsos April 2022 Political Monitor_290422_PUBLIC.pdf
On Isam's (late of this parish) charisma quotient, neither Hunt not any of the other runners and riders are much more exciting than Starmer.
Hmmm.
What do you folks know about Lucia Guo?
"As things stand, Starmer could become prime minister from sheer Tory inanition. Johnson seems bent on continuing his lurch to defeat and a lucrative career impersonating himself in after-dinner speeches. Yet Labour could still be thwarted if Conservative MPs can rouse themselves from fear and torpor. Deposing Johnson and installing any one of his rivals would be a sign they are serious about staying in power. The prospect of some form of proportional voting for Westminster, which could lock the Tories out of government indefinitely, could be averted or postponed."
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/05/tony-blairs-new-centrist-project-shows-he-and-his-acolytes-have-learned-nothing
Does he really think that PR would result in a permanent center left monopoly or power in the UK?
We only have the parties we have, because of the electoral system we have.
If NZ is any guide, the resultant situation would still be Con and Lab as the major parties, with Green and LD as minors. Reform too, but would need charismatic leadership
There would certainly be some breakaway parties but the lesson from NZ is that these are very very difficult to sustain unless they talk to a genuine political cleavage in the electorate.
Remember that until its current incarnation, and to a lesser extent still, it has always been a broad coalition.
US policing makes ours, the Dicks and Hogan Hopelesses notwithstanding, look a model of good practice.
Note that 40% of the town’s budget went to the police department.
The rockets are to be used solely in Ukraine, not against targets within Russia.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/31/biden-ukraine-rockets-russia-00036225
48 mile max range.
It’s probably going to take a few weeks to get there, but it will severely constrain Russia’s ability to use its artillery.
Supreme Court leak investigation heats up as clerks are asked for phone records in unprecedented move
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/05/31/politics/supreme-court-roe-v-wade-leak-phone-records/index.html
Absolutely, Sterling becoming an Emerging Market currency is the fault of the Scottish Government. 😉
But you actually make a serious point. It is perfectly reasonable to assume that the dire economic situation will be blamed on all four incumbents: Drakeford, Johnson, O'Neill and Sturgeon. However, evidence that that is what is happening is weak. For example, the SNP just won our eleventh election in a row, with our strongest ever performance in local government elections.
And this being a betting blog, what do punters think? Look at the prices of the principal opponents of the English and Scottish first ministers:
Next English FM/PM Starmer 7/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Sarwar 16/1
Next Scottish FM/PM Ross 18/1
Bearing in mind that the Starmer price is very long due to an imminent VONC in Johnson, it is clear that the markets judge that Johnson being kicked out is much more likely than Sturgeon being kicked out. Why? Well, part of the answer must surely be that the coming economic maelstrom is going to get blamed fairly and squarely on the Brexit Revolutionary Party.
Archbishop of Canterbury suggests Prince Andrew wants to ‘make amends’
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/may/31/archbishop-of-canterbury-suggests-prince-andrew-wants-to-make-amends
seagrass meadow
Genetic testing has determined a single 4,500-year-old seagrass may have spread over 200 sq km of underwater seafloor – about 20,000 football fields
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/jun/01/what-the-hell-australian-scientists-discover-biggest-plant-on-earth-off-wa-coast
Hampden Park
7:45 kick off this evening
Scotland 2.42
Ukraine 3.6
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/31/opinion/biden-ukraine-strategy.html
It was crass of Welby but he was led into the trap by Tom Bradby.
Interesting about Jeremy Hunt. What he would do is shore up the Blue Wall and I really think the tories need to think seriously about that. The current trajectory of this party is profoundly un-Conservative.
It's on. Look at Graham Brady's face yesterday, a man who knows he is about to have his day in the sun. The party is facing down a big election loss and potentially the rewriting of our electoral system against it. So it can go knee-jerk and stupid - elect an IDS or contemplate a Leadsom in the form of some of the names that get mentioned. Appease the mouth-foamers wing of your membership.
Or it can consider this to be the last chance. You still can retain power after the next election, but you need a sane leader and a bonfire of Johnsonism, its (lack of) policies and a restoration of the Conservative party as opposed whatever you want to call this proto-fascist English nationalist tax and spend international pariah you support.
The landscape three years later is very different.
'Ah well I've always rated Jeremy Hunt and have said so many times.'
She was rather glowing and it's the first time I've ever heard her relaxed and happy about the prospect of Johnson going.
No idea whether its true or not. I think the last time she was exhibited in public was the PM physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.
The problem will be the Red Wall but it's my belief that their support is fickle anyway. If they're not seeing food on the table they won't stick with Johnson's newfound reach.
Ditching Conservative policies was an incredible mistake by Johnson-Sunak. To become a socialist party of High Tax and Spend is red rag to the bull.
Welby has been a pitiful Archbishop of Canterbury. This is just another sorry episode.
The Establishment should just keep their big mouths shut. At least for another month.
People vote for a party expecting the party to improve their lives. The Tories are failing to do,that. If they had succeeded they would keep,the red wall.
Mr. Jonathan, disagree. More than enough time has passed for it not to be a problem for Hunt (in particular).
A thorough account of how we got to a situation where millions of Britons are living with poverty and hunger.
Boris immediately calls a GE, on the grounds that 'the public have a right choose their PM'!
1. Graham Brady books a big room in parliament early next week and announces a contest
2. Consternation and uproar from the Tories. The loon wing angrily attack their traitor colleagues, the moral / nervous ones attack back
3. Johnson scrapes over the line. Badly damaged, with ongoing attacks by the moral vs the vacuous.
4. We really now must move on says team clown
5. "Oh hell no" says the public, with a fresh poll plunge for the Tories
6. Tories get smashed in both Wakefield and Devon.
7. Despite the "he's safe for 12 months" rule the slide into the mire only accelerates.
8. He resigns, but instead of a swift contest and a sane leader paraded at conference we have a fractious battle with the remaining loons desperate to hold onto control of the party.
9. Instead Conference is a contest where the membership listen to "vote for me" speeches from favoured candidates. A choice of Patel or Baker becomes their option...
The solution is as demonstrated by most European governments. A StateCo. Owned by the state but run commercially. The state removes the need to make profit and enables very cheap borrowing for investment and can subsidise as heavily as it wants to. But does not dictate the seat spacing and lack of tray tables on the Thameslink fleet (other examples of government meddling can be found)
Necessity leading to invention again. I really thought this was hard enough that it would take longer.
Some smart people in the UK.
It is pretty easy to catch the gist!
Poor old de Pfeffel. It’s not just him that can pfeffel around…
Staff retention is the thing to address. April 2022 saw a new record in numbers retiring.
The one thing about the current Labour Party and membership is that they're ravenous for power. In the unlikely event of both Starmer and Rayner resigning and Johnson calling a snap election, Labour would either a) defer SKS' resignation until after the election or b) have a caretaker leader of prowess. There are plenty of very serious contenders on their shadow cabinet who could fulfill a 6-month role like that including Yvette Cooper or Ed Miliband.
If Boris did that the tories would be wiped out
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/31/number-of-fake-liverpool-champions-league-final-tickets-was-just-2800
The tickets on display in the image are clearly fakes.
That's not disrespectful and you may be right but this is a fast-moving situation and I'm not sure you still get the visceral anger around in the country.
He's also outside the Cabinet and I think the stench of partygate, cronyism and corruption would be very hard for anyone in Johnson's team to shake off.
I'll put this slightly more firmly: living out in the Middle East as you do I really don't think you have your finger on the pulse of this country.
But the Tory party never gave the leadership to Ken Clarke, so why would it start making sensible choices now?
My opinion is that you should drop it and wait for the full proper and professionally conducted enquiry. Then by all means pitch your opinion.
There's far too much of this on the internet, including on here: people spouting opinions when they are not experts and don't have full command of the facts.
Peace.
x
Nadhim Zahawi, now he had a good pandemic.
"Better the devil you know", as opposed to "someone whom the Labour Party might vote out themselves in six months" would be the offering.
And given the trouble our nation is in .....
More an expression of what a block of people would like to happen (and he very probably is the best candidate to clear up Big Dog's many messages on the carpet), than a prediction of what's likely to happen.
Jeremy Hunt was really good in the early stages, probably I have to say because of his Asian connections. He knew what was coming and came out with plans which were far ahead of the curve of Johnson's typically slack and careless attitude.
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/may/31/no-excuse-for-uefa-echoing-hillsborough-by-instantly-blaming-liverpool-fans-paris
The ministers’ claims, that there were 30-40,000 Liverpool fans with fake or no tickets, look ludicrous – where, physically, were all these tens of thousands of people? – but there will have been some, a routine issue to be dealt with at any major match.
Sorry, no. People turning up with fake tickets is not a routine issue to be dealt with. People turning up with fake tickets need to be called out for what they are. That doesn't mean that the authorities get off. Far from it. Liverpool fans have a right to be protected from other knobhead Liverpool fans. But we shouldn't be afraid to call out the knobheads.
The vonc next week will fatally wound Boris and if he survives the forthcoming by election results will be a massacre and it is then upto the rebels to inform the whips that they will vote against HMG until he is gone
On Hunt I do not see him winning the membership vote even if he gets to the last 2 and I rather think it is hope by some over expectation
As for Boris calling an election I just cannot see that at all
Anyway, let's s hope he is history very soon and I am confident that my prediction some time ago that a vonc will happen next week will come to pass
Someone failing to recognise or admit their own error, becoming more entrenched and opinionated.
Sorry really is the hardest word.
Have a good day everyone.
xx
- “… physically dragging her down the street to vote last month.”
Presumably she voted Lib Dem.