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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds that the Tories would be 3% closer without Scotland
Interesting new Survation poll published overnight by Survation with new Westminster numbers showing for the first time two sets of numbers – both with Scotland and without.
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My guess is that the little matter of May 7th 2015, the party conferences and the Clacton by-election will figure largely.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Future-of-the-UK-Poll.pdf
UKIP voters least bothered (40% "don't mind" 35% "no" ) on SINDY, while other parties 65-67% "no", also DE nearly three times as likely to not care (33) than AB (12).
Also interesting - 59% of rUK think rUK should continue to receive share of Scottish oil & gas vs 23% who don't if SINDY.
Excluding Don't knows rUK is 74:26 against a Currency Union and also 74:26 in favour of relocating Trident to rUK.
Sixth btw.
Resign/stay/DK
Cameron: 27/54/19 (CON: 6/83/10)
Miliband: 20/57/22 (LAB: 12/70/18)
None of them: 49
Salmond: 13
Cameron: 8
Miliband: 7
There will be no happy ending - at least not for a decade or two....
I note that the Stars and Stripes still contains British Red in the ground.
Matt
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/33f0e74e-3a6c-11e4-8ee4-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3DMGz27iG
The Yes campaign in Scotland, as reasonable as it imagines itself, seems to believe in the unreasonable proposition that you can improve your marriage by getting a divorce. It doesn’t work that way. The Yes campaign also promises that post-divorce negotiations will take place in an atmosphere of complete calm and rationality – and that rump Britain will give it what it wants. But that glosses over the fact that the other side has demands, too. Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond said recently that, if Britain didn’t let an independent Scotland continue to use the pound, Scotland might refuse to assume its share of the national debt.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-debate/editorials/an-open-letter-to-scotland/article20579017/?click=sf_globe#dashboard/alerts
Maybe the scales have now fallen and the English working class have at last realised that much of Labour since Gaitskills death have increasingly treated them as cretins who need to be kept in their place and farmed for votes, as they were taken over by middle class humanist social liberals as a vehicle for their warped worldview.
Goodbye indeed.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/tightening-polls-on-scotland-secession-echo-days-before-quebecs-1995-vote/article20531252/
Uhndoutably though the SNP are picking up WWC votes for the same reason as UKIP are (see below) which may may it a little closer. When the SNP are found out for what they are UKIP might start doing much better in Scotland too.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 9h
SNPs Hosie says "real threat to NHS" is "privatisation and charging" down south... Ruth Davidson quotes IFS numbers on Scottish NHS squeeze
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson 9h
@faisalislam never understood how SNP get away with that "threat to NHS" canard when health is 100% devolved to Holyrood.
Faisal Islam @faisalislam 9h
@FraserNelson we are moving beyond a fact-based paradigm
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson 9h
@faisalislam and this is what has dumbfounded unionists. It's a fascinating phenomenon.
Two must read articles on the Indy Referendum debate this week.
Ian Smart Blog - Terms of Engagement
Chris Deerin - Salmond and Farage, better together
Oddly, no one has commented that the Scottish YES vote rise over the last month co-incided with the Rotherham scandal and the lack of arrests of anyone in authority since (compare and contrast with the media s**storm and rentamobs and official persuit of the councillors after the Westminster Shirley Porter affair).
"When it comes down to it, maybe the Québécois will be shown to be more grounded and less chippy than the Scots? Less inclined to cut off their nose to spite their face? Just because they walked up to the abyss and took a step back, doesn't mean the Scots won't take a step forward...."
Yesterday my daughter was telling me one of her friends had said they were voting yes because if we vote no then we will have to pay for NHS operations. It really is endless.
I would like to think that Labour would feel somewhat uncomfortable criticising people who claim they can avoid "austerity" just by voting something different as if economics were somehow subject to the "sovereign will" of the people. But that is for next week.
There is little doubt that horrors such as Rotherham increase that mode of thinking, even if it is purely background.
Personally I think they are underestimating the truly massive disruption that the Scottish (and, to a lesser extent the rUK) economy would suffer even in the period running up to independence as companies leave, redundancy notices are issued by banks, insurers, the MoD, the IDA etc etc; Holyrood searches around desperately for staff with the skills to carry out a range of functions, particularly Treasury and regulatory functions not currently done in Scotland; the uncertainty of EU membership and the terms of it paralyses investment and the Scottish people finally realise that the sovereign will of the Scottish people means diddly squat to rUK on the question of currency. I have no doubt that by 2016 Scotland will already be in a deep depression with unemployment rising strongly.
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Whether the political class can change their ways will be the big question of this decade.
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
1) There will be considerable irony if the Scottish Referendum turnout is 80+% making it the highest turnout in Scotland at any election since the Tories won an overall majority of both seats and votes in Scotland in 1955.
2) The Labour Party, especially in Scotland, has spent 35 years demonising the Tory Party and all things Tory. It will therefore be ironic if the Scottish people take Labour at its word, vote YES and in so doing, assign Labour to decades out of government in England.
I'm beginning to wonder whether there really is an irreconcilable divide between Scotland and Tory England and whether the Scots perhaps are better off out
"Vote yes to bring down a tory prime minister"
So whether Dave actually will resign or not is a completely different thing. Not that I think he will, but it's in every unionists interest to pretend that such an occurrence is inconceivable until 10pm on Thursday.
I am reminded of the words of a long lost poster: "Only from the PB Tories. Only on PB."
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them.
anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
It may well become the sensible centrist party that it needs to be. At the moment it is all rather incoherent internally; but so are all of UKIP, Tories and LDs.
Cameron has thoroughly screwed his successor with this stuff, but the least bad option for them might just be to promise a referendum with no dicking around. Cameron would be persuading more sceptics with his referendum promise if it wasn't wrapped up with a load of other stuff that everyone can see is full of holes.
The other point is that 'Westminster' would be a more accurate description of the 'other'. Many folk here - as do I - reckon that a right-leaning party would do better in Scotland than the current Tories linked as they are to their London-based party, and that their decline began when they merged the Scottish business with the London one in the 1950s. (On the other hand, other factors such as secularization and the decline of religion and therefore of sectarianism played a part.)
It was pleasing to see another hacking and slashing centre right government bite the dust yesterday.
Congratulations Sweden.
The big domino remains to be toppled here in May, but it's certainly wobbling...
WILLIAM WALLACE!
WILLIAM WALLACE!
WILLIAM WALLACE!
FREEDOM!!!!!
One thing I think we might all be able to agree on: roll on Friday am and the result. This has gone on too long now.