DavidL: Based on your canvassing, what's your feeling about how the previously undecideds are making up their minds? I found more going to no than yes in the Borders.
It was also cheering to hear people toot their horns or put their thumbs up when they saw we were from Better Together. Are you the only Scottish Tory in your campaign group? We had Tories Labour, a Green and peope of no party. Quite a mix.
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Which is one reason why it probably won't happen to any great extent. As malcolmg may have said, most firms will prefer to move a brass plate than try to replace thousands of staff. Companies that are happy to outsource to India or China will surely be OK with outsourcing to Scotland. Now, of course, even moving brass plates will make a difference to the economy but staff relocation can be a far more leisurely affair.
Even if you ignore the mad ravings of Jim Sillars it is hard to find any credible basis for
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
David, The lies have already been exposed you can give up , we know it is just brass plates that move and that it is all just Tory lies. For once can BT not have a positive for the union , too busy using your bovver boots to threaten people. It is easy to get lickspittle millionaires chasing gongs to do your bidding but not so easy to cow the people.
chortle
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them.
anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
Alan, you should be shot for having any money with them in any case, I thought you were financially astute. Pity you will get stung getting out and getting back in elsewhere. Will cost you plenty, those spivs love it.
Not my choice malc, in co pensions schemes you get what you're given - as your employer is currently demonstrating. These days chose to manage my own cash since I don't trust any of the buggers.
Agree it is mostly robbery, lucky if you get your own cash back. Luckily I hadmost of mine in final salary scheme before it was chopped.
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
It won't be an outsider, as they won't be able to get the support they would need. The reason I suggested Theresa May is that she is really popular in the party and is also liked by EU sceptic backbenchers. Electing a women as leader who is not part of the old Etonian club, would be seen as a smart move. Whether May would be popular with the UK public, I am not so sure.
As anybody who has been through an acrimonious divorce would tell you - from hearsay, I might add - both sides are left financially and emotionally worse off. The only ones who benefit are the lawyers, and throughout England and Scotland they will be boning up on constitutional and business law to handle the myriad of both large and small issues that will arise from such a massive bust up.
Quite. Until now I had thought it was mainly people in Scotland who were labouring under misapprehensions (currency union and so forth)....but the Survation poll shows rUK voters thinking they should get a share of "Scotland's oil"..,,,,so when that does not come to pass, already pretty hard attitudes will harden further...
We should get a 92% share of the value of "Scotland's oil".
...What do you mean Salmond thinks there are different rules for Scotland and rUK?
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Which is one reason why it probably won't happen to any great extent. As malcolmg may have said, most firms will prefer to move a brass plate than try to replace thousands of staff. Companies that are happy to outsource to India or China will surely be OK with outsourcing to Scotland. Now, of course, even moving brass plates will make a difference to the economy but staff relocation can be a far more leisurely affair.
Even if you ignore the mad ravings of Jim Sillars it is hard to find any credible basis for coming to the view that an Independent Scotland is going to be a safe place to do your business. If you take Standard Life, for example, nearly 90% of their business comes from rUK. Why would those clients want to take the currency and other risks of an independent Scotland. These companies, if they want to keep their business, will need to move a lot more than their brass plates. People will want assured their money is safe in England.
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
David, The lies have already been exposed you can give up , we know it is just brass plates that move and that it is all just Tory lies. For once can BT not have a positive for the union , too busy using your bovver boots to threaten people. It is easy to get lickspittle millionaires chasing gongs to do your bidding but not so easy to cow the people.
chortle
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them. anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
Alan, back after injustice , I was stitched up like a kipper,
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
Depends on the timetable. One thing under appreciated, I think, is how much effort Osborne has put into being a network across the party, securing his people in key positions. It will be tough for anyone to beat him, although I do have money on Hague as a transition figure in a 'Yes' crisis and May for longer term.
It won't be Hague as he is standing down as an MP and wants to move away from politics. As for Osborne, I think he is too close to Cameron to be considered.
I'm at St Pancras, and Sarah Teather is in the seat across from me. Should I say hello?
Wouldn't goodbye be more appropriate? A classic moment - Teather running down the street refusing to talk to Sky News about her abject sell out over tuition fees.
Oh, and wrapping herself in the pride flag before voting against gay marriage.
What will we all talk of come next week? It's going to be positively boring without an imminent referendum.
Next week we'll be talking separation negotiations, Cameron's position having lost the Union, Ed's position having lost all authority, the rUK's diminished global position, how long before the disillusionment kicks in up in Scotland etc. The break up of the UK and the ongoing constitutional crisis it leads to will provide plenty of discussion points for years to come.
Then again, Salmond migh be refusing to resign after BT's crushing victory in the referendum. "We fight on" he exclaims, demanding another independence vote five years hence.
Lots of fantasy island on here this morning
My concern is that both sides are on fantasy island. Whatever the result things are not going to be as pleasant as many people seem to hope...
The terms of engagement piece is good but involves an astonishing lack of self awareness on the part of anyone who has ever campaigned for Labour and against "tory cuts". It is true that the SNP has taken the lies and the fantasies to the next level but they are very much on the same journey.
Ian Smart has been one of the loudest voices of the last two years saying that the Yes vote is a phantom mirage and would struggle to get over 28% and 'none' of his friends aware willing to take a bet that it would top that figure.
He had a self-justifying piece a week ago which basically say that even if Yes win by a landslide it's not areal Yes vote and the natural support of Yes is 25% of the country.
OT Can we not choose either top-posting (new comment above quote) or bottom-posting (new comment below quote) and stick to it, rather than have each poster do his or her own thing? A random mixture of styles makes it harder to follow extended threads.
Ah! Central planning! Much more efficient!
Personally I reckon we should trust people to make their own choices ;-)
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
Depends on the timetable. One thing under appreciated, I think, is how much effort Osborne has put into being a network across the party, securing his people in key positions. It will be tough for anyone to beat him, although I do have money on Hague as a transition figure in a 'Yes' crisis and May for longer term.
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
Depends on the timetable. One thing under appreciated, I think, is how much effort Osborne has put into being a network across the party, securing his people in key positions. It will be tough for anyone to beat him, although I do have money on Hague as a transition figure in a 'Yes' crisis and May for longer term.
It won't be Hague as he is standing down as an MP and wants to move away from politics. As for Osborne, I think he is too close to Cameron to be considered.
Hague would be interim PM, chosen by agreement, without party election, if Cam goes in a crisis IMHO. There can't not be a PM for the 3 months a Tory contest would take.
I am today more confident of a No than at any point in the campaign. I don't share Robert's view that it will be thumping. But I do think it will be decisive, 47-53 or so. That's still a great run by the nationalists but a miss is a mile.
Bob, you are not well , take the day off and rest, get your head sorted out.
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Which is one reason why it o the economy but staff relocation can be a far more leisurely affair.
Even if you ignore the mad ravings of Jim Sillars it is hard to find any credible basis for coming to the vsafe in England.
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
David, The lies have already been exposed you can give up , we know it is just brass plates that move and that it is all just Tory lies. For once can BT not have a positive for the union , too busy using your bovver boots to threaten people. It is easy to get lickspittle millionaires chasing gongs to do your bidding but not so easy to cow the people.
chortle
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them. anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
Alan, back after injustice , I was stitched up like a kipper,
I am today more confident of a No than at any point in the campaign. I don't share Robert's view that it will be thumping. But I do think it will be decisive, 47-53 or so. That's still a great run by the nationalists but a miss is a mile.
I to have become quietly confident it will be a No. The main reason is that there are some areas such as the Borders, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire which are massively against. I would not be surprised to see ratios as high as 75/25 in areas such as East Renfrew. I was there last week and did not meet a single Yes voter.
After all the hype about massive turnouts I am now thinking it may not be more than 70-75%. There are just a bunch of people who have got bored of the whole thing, will be high on methadone, forget about it, too busy and are not used to voting.
The SNP are desperately trying to play down the brass plate move but everyone knows it will be much more than that. I have a friend who runs a call centre site in Belfast and is looking at doubling capacity if Scotland votes Yes. The reality is that people prefer to speak to people from their own country and not foreigners. That is why Ireland (Eire) has almost no call centres supporting the UK. The Scottish economy is highly integrated with the UK and completely different from Ireland which is a combination of small domestic companies and global exports of goods enticed with low wages and low corporate taxes. Ireland has slightly better wealth inequality measures than the UK but 11% unemployment. This is the model that Salmond plans to follow. As such you could see maybe up to 100,000 becoming unemployed in Scotland within 2 to 3 years.
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Which is one reason why it o the economy but staff relocation can be a far more leisurely affair.
Even if you ignore the mad ravings of Jim Sillars it is hard to find any credible basis for coming to the vsafe in England.
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
David, The lies have already been exposed you can give up , we know it is just brass plates that move and that it is all just Tory lies. For once can BT not have a positive for the union , too busy using your bovver boots to threaten people. It is easy to get lickspittle millionaires chasing gongs to do your bidding but not so easy to cow the people.
chortle
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them. anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
Alan, back after injustice , I was stitched up like a kipper,
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
Depends on the timetable. One thing under appreciated, I think, is how much effort Osborne has put into being a network across the party, securing his people in key positions. It will be tough for anyone to beat him, although I do have money on Hague as a transition figure in a 'Yes' crisis and May for longer term.
It won't be Hague as he is standing down as an MP and wants to move away from politics. As for Osborne, I think he is too close to Cameron to be considered.
That makes him the perfect caretaker. Then if everything goes well he might change his mind and stay...
It was pleasing to see another hacking and slashing centre right government bite the dust yesterday.
Congratulations Sweden.
The big domino remains to be toppled here in May, but it's certainly wobbling...
I should not be too glad, if I were you. The result of the election was a shift to the right, not a shift to the left. The new government has only 43% of the seats in Parliament.
Yes, and the Feminist Party failed to pass the entrance to parliament threshold. Fancy having a party of only female dominatrix' gossiping away in Westminster?....ugh!
It is sounding like the Tories will dump Cameron if Scots vote YES. If this is the case, then we might see someone like Theresa May leading the Tories in a early election. I can see Theresa May saying that a Tory government would back coming out of the EU in a referendum in 2017, if the UK did not gain EU reforms on specific issues, which she would spell out in some detail. This might enable the Tories to get back votes from UKIP, enough to win an election.
I'm surprised anyone thinks a Cameron insider would be in the running. I've heard Hammond, May, Hague, even Osborne mentioned. Quite bizarre. It would of course quite rightly be an outsider.
Depends on the timetable. One thing under appreciated, I think, is how much effort Osborne has put into being a network across the party, securing his people in key positions. It will be tough for anyone to beat him, although I do have money on Hague as a transition figure in a 'Yes' crisis and May for longer term.
It won't be Hague as he is standing down as an MP and wants to move away from politics. As for Osborne, I think he is too close to Cameron to be considered.
Hague would be interim PM, chosen by agreement, without party election, if Cam goes in a crisis IMHO. There can't not be a PM for the 3 months a Tory contest would take.
Under different rules and during a major crisis, it didn't take 3 months to replace Neville Chamberlain with Winston Churchill. Pragmatism or a lust for power might prevail. I rather suspect that a 90s to change horse is a luxury The Tories can't employ.
Morning all and before I go off to the Clan Sutherland Gathering final day of activities, a couple of thoughts.
1) There will be considerable irony if the Scottish Referendum turnout is 80+% making it the highest turnout in Scotland at any election since the Tories won an overall majority of both seats and votes in Scotland in 1955.
2) The Labour Party, especially in Scotland, has spent 35 years demonising the Tory Party and all things Tory. It will therefore be ironic if the Scottish people take Labour at its word, vote YES and in so doing, assign Labour to decades out of government in England.
2) So again we have a PBer saying it is not the Tories' actual policies that are causing the problem but the way Labour presents them.
I am reminded of the words of a long lost poster: "Only from the PB Tories. Only on PB."
Incredible isn't it.
You can see the claim now "Daves intervention saved the Union"
The terms of engagement piece is good but involves an astonishing lack of self awareness on the part of anyone who has ever campaigned for Labour and against "tory cuts". It is true that the SNP has taken the lies and the fantasies to the next level but they are very much on the same journey.
Ian Smart has been one of the loudest voices of the last two years saying that the Yes vote is a phantom mirage and would struggle to get over 28% and 'none' of his friends aware willing to take a bet that it would top that figure.
He had a self-justifying piece a week ago which basically say that even if Yes win by a landslide it's not areal Yes vote and the natural support of Yes is 25% of the country.
Smart, the pundit who stated unequivocally there would not be a referendum. Smart by name etc.
He'd fit in really well here, and PB could finally get its first SLABer.
In the longer term, again unlike the fund managers, I would be slightly more optimistic in that Scotland will find an equilibrium. It will be poorer but not that much poorer. It will just be an insignificant backwater that few will even think about. I suppose, if you really don't care about the world, there are worse places to live.
Which is one reason why it o the economy but staff relocation can be a far more leisurely affair.
Even if you ignore the mad ravings of Jim Sillars it is hard to find any credible basis for coming to the vsafe in England.
The point I am making is that is completely daft to believe this is a problem that will manifest itself after Independence Day. In some small respects it has started already. If things go the wrong way it will simply accelerate from Friday onwards throughout the next 18 months.
David, The lies have already been exposed you can give up , we know it is just brass plates that move and that it is all just Tory lies. For once can BT not have a positive for the union , too busy using your bovver boots to threaten people. It is easy to get lickspittle millionaires chasing gongs to do your bidding but not so easy to cow the people.
chortle
had this discussion with a couple of work colleagues bhelieve me if SL don't move our pensions to England we'll be doing it for them. anyways good to see you back you big tumshee
Alan, back after injustice , I was stitched up like a kipper,
I am today more confident of a No than at any point in the campaign. I don't share Robert's view that it will be thumping. But I do think it will be decisive, 47-53 or so. That's still a great run by the nationalists but a miss is a mile.
I to have become quietly confident it will be a No. The main reason is that there are some areas such as the Borders, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire which are massively against. I would not be surprised to see ratios as high as 75/25 in areas such as East Renfrew.
Indeed - there is a world of difference between an Easterhouse schemie answering their iPhone to tell a pollster they'll be vootin' Aye, and the same schemie remembering what day it is and actually making it out of bed and past the off-licence in order to vote Yes.
It was pleasing to see another hacking and slashing centre right government bite the dust yesterday.
Congratulations Sweden.
The big domino remains to be toppled here in May, but it's certainly wobbling...
I should not be too glad, if I were you. The result of the election was a shift to the right, not a shift to the left. The new government has only 43% of the seats in Parliament.
Yes, and the Feminist Party failed to pass the entrance to parliament threshold. Fancy having a party of only female dominatrix' gossiping away in Westminster?....ugh!
Imagine a party founded by Harriet Harman, Julie Bindel, Mary Honeyball, on amphetamines, and you get Feminist Initiative. Their main argument seems to be that there isn't enough authoritarian political correctness in Sweden.
I am today more confident of a No than at any point in the campaign. I don't share Robert's view that it will be thumping. But I do think it will be decisive, 47-53 or so. That's still a great run by the nationalists but a miss is a mile.
I to have become quietly confident it will be a No. The main reason is that there are some areas such as the Borders, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire which are massively against. I would not be surprised to see ratios as high as 75/25 in areas such as East Renfrew. I was there last week and did not meet a single Yes voter.
After all the hype about massive turnouts I am now thinking it may not be more than 70-75%. There are just a bunch of people who have got bored of the whole thing, will be high on methadone, forget about it, too busy and are not used to voting.
The SNP are desperately trying to play down the brass plate move but everyone knows it will be much more than that. I have a friend who runs a call centre site in Belfast and is looking at doubling capacity if Scotland votes Yes. The reality is that people prefer to speak to people from their own country and not foreigners. That is why Ireland (Eire) has almost no call centres supporting the UK. The Scottish economy is highly integrated with the UK and completely different from Ireland which is a combination of small domestic companies and global exports of goods enticed with low wages and low corporate taxes. Ireland has slightly better wealth inequality measures than the UK but 11% unemployment. This is the model that Salmond plans to follow. As such you could see maybe up to 100,000 becoming unemployed in Scotland within 2 to 3 years.
Ha Ha Ha , you missed out most of the populated parts of the country there. Surprised you did not take a straw poll on your march on Saturday and tell us it was a sure NO Surrender.
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
I wonder if this is because of Labour voters switching in the aftermath of the Rotherham scandal. UKIP are going in hard on this. Certainly Labour seem to being given a free pass on this by the establishment and media. Imagine the wall to wall coverage and howling rentamobs that would still be out in force if Rotherham and the other northern councils were Tory. Compare and contrast with Dame Shirley Porters & co treatment for example.
Maybe the scales have now fallen and the English working class have at last realised that much of Labour since Gaitskills death have increasingly treated them as cretins who need to be kept in their place and farmed for votes, as they were taken over by middle class humanist social liberals as a vehicle for their warped worldview.
I wonder how the establishment and media would be acting if councils that were ukip controlled had been covering up assaults by English men against immigrants and ignoring the testimonies of immigrants that had been beaten up with council workers reporting an atmosphere of xenophobia that prevented them from speaking out.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
Westminster Election Labour 38% +2 Conservative 23% -2 UKIP 17% +15.6 Plaid Cymru 11% -0.3 Liberal Democrat 6% -14 Green 5%
Change since 2010.
Not much movement in top two, Tories holding ground in Wales equally or maybe a bit better than nationally. UKIP replacing the Lib Dems as third party. Plaid surprisingly not getting any boost from Scotland.
I am today more confident of a No than at any point in the campaign. I don't share Robert's view that it will be thumping. But I do think it will be decisive, 47-53 or so. That's still a great run by the nationalists but a miss is a mile.
I to have become quietly confident it will be a No. The main reason is that there are some areas such as the Borders, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire which are massively against. I would not be surprised to see ratios as high as 75/25 in areas such as East Renfrew. I was there last week and did not meet a single Yes voter.
The Borders has a population of 110,000.
Also I wouldn't class Edinburgh as 'massively' against. Against I would agree with but massively is an optimistic call.
Yes Malcolm that was bit of a blow to you. The Orange Order match went smoothly and was a happy family event. Looking out of my flat at the Govan shipyards I see 8,000 of the workers you plan to lose as collateral damage working away on the new aircraft carrier. Maybe you would like to go in there and shout your abuse at them.
DavidL: Based on your canvassing, what's your feeling about how the previously undecideds are making up their minds? I found more going to no than yes in the Borders.
It was also cheering to hear people toot their horns or put their thumbs up when they saw we were from Better Together. Are you the only Scottish Tory in your campaign group? We had Tories Labour, a Green and peope of no party. Quite a mix.
LOL, the fields are for NO the towns are for YES. Sheep do not have the vote.
A straw in the wind as to how those who wanted Devomax might be leaning.
Alastair Ross @AlastairRoss 2 hrs Ben Thomson chairman of @devoplus tells #BBCGMS he's leaning towards an #indyref Yes vote as he's sceptical of delivery of more powers
It may be painful for many Yes voters to accept, but the SNP and Ukip share a founding spasm. It is one that rejects the status quo, that sees only the negative in what exists, that backs away from the values of shared responsibility, fellow-feeling and solidarity, and it is one that could fundamentally change all of our lives. Both are willing to gamble our security, prosperity, influence and key relationships on the basis of a romantic, untested theory.
Untested except for the actual world before 1975? Pathetic attempt to link anticipated No success with the fight against UKIP.
What the big vote for Yes (I still think No will edge it), the rise of UKIP, and last Night's German and Swedish results have in common is that they show rapidly growing unhappiness with the behaviour of the political class in many democracies.
Whether the political class can change their ways will be the big question of this decade.
People are certainly disenchanted with the political classes but it is a moot point whether any politician is going to deliver the electorate's often unrealistic expectations. Salmond and Farage are doing well because they are strongly implying people will be better off if only they get rid of England or the EU as the case may be. (Nationalist politicians thrive on blaming someone else for all the problems). Some people buy it, I don't.
Provided I wasn't actually living in either country at the time it would be fascinating to watch either leader win power and try to deliver. I pity whoever had to try and pick up the pieces five years on.
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
I wonder if this is because of Labour voters switching in the aftermath of the Rotherham scandal. UKIP are going in hard on this. Certainly Labour seem to being given a free pass on this by the establishment and media. Imagine the wall to wall coverage and howling rentamobs that would still be out in force if Rotherham and the other northern councils were Tory. Compare and contrast with Dame Shirley Porters & co treatment for example.
Maybe the scales have now fallen and the English working class have at last realised that much of Labour since Gaitskills death have increasingly treated them as cretins who need to be kept in their place and farmed for votes, as they were taken over by middle class humanist social liberals as a vehicle for their warped worldview.
I wonder how the establishment and media would be acting if councils that were ukip controlled had been covering up assaults by English men against immigrants and ignoring the testimonies of immigrants that had been beaten up with council workers reporting an atmosphere of xenophobia that prevented them from speaking out.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
Really.
I imagine that it is UKIP policy that the police actually do their job and don't care about upsetting pakistani muslims.
I also imagine that this will be a massive vote winner.
If Scotland vote Yes could the Ryder cup be taken away from Gleneagles as theoretically it wouldnt be in either Europe or the UK...?
No. For one Scotland will still be in the EU after a yes vote, they might have to leave post independence but that won't happen by then. Even if it were to, Scotland would still be as much part of the continent of Europe as now. Also, the European team in the Ryder Cup counts all of the EPGA competitions as qualifiers, some of these are in Asia, Africa and even the USA. Why would they exclude Scotland?
The terms of engagement piece is good but involves an astonishing lack of self awareness on the part of anyone who has ever campaigned for Labour and against "tory cuts". It is true that the SNP has taken the lies and the fantasies to the next level but they are very much on the same journey.
Ian Smart has been one of the loudest voices of the last two years saying that the Yes vote is a phantom mirage and would struggle to get over 28% and 'none' of his friends aware willing to take a bet that it would top that figure.
He had a self-justifying piece a week ago which basically say that even if Yes win by a landslide it's not areal Yes vote and the natural support of Yes is 25% of the country.
Smart, the pundit who stated unequivocally there would not be a referendum. Smart by name etc.
He'd fit in really well here, and PB could finally get its first SLABer.
It is also worth noting that Ian Smart is, er, well-known for the balance and judgement of his internet chat (especially for a lawyer). The put-downs by his brother are minor classics of the indyref debate.
Westminster Election Labour 38% +2 Conservative 23% -2 UKIP 17% +15.6 Plaid Cymru 11% -0.3 Liberal Democrat 6% -14 Green 5%
Change since 2010.
Not much movement in top two, Tories holding ground in Wales equally or maybe a bit better than nationally. UKIP replacing the Lib Dems as third party. Plaid surprisingly not getting any boost from Scotland.
Yes Malcolm that was bit of a blow to you. The Orange Order match went smoothly and was a happy family event. Looking out of my flat at the Govan shipyards I see 8,000 of the workers you plan to lose as collateral damage working away on the new aircraft carrier. Maybe you would like to go in there and shout your abuse at them.
If Scotland vote Yes could the Ryder cup be taken away from Gleneagles as theoretically it wouldnt be in either Europe or the UK...?
Scotland wont be in Europe?
I think you find it will maybe not the EU but definitely in Europe.
Anyway I hope you are wrong as I have just taken Skys latest offering of half price for 12 months mainly on the back of seeing Gleneagles in all its splendor later this month
If Scotland vote Yes could the Ryder cup be taken away from Gleneagles as theoretically it wouldnt be in either Europe or the UK...?
No. For one Scotland will still be in the EU after a yes vote, they might have to leave post independence but that won't happen by then. Even if it were to, Scotland would still be as much part of the continent of Europe as now. Also, the European team in the Ryder Cup counts all of the EPGA competitions as qualifiers, some of these are in Asia, Africa and even the USA. Why would they exclude Scotland?
My comments were slightly tongue in cheek...but if it is a Yes vote the event could get politicised out of all recognition..
Referendum Weather Forecast --- On the day of the referendum it is expected to be generally dry, perhaps a touch mild, with the best of the weather expected in the West. Across the border to the South it will be warm and humid, with isolated heavy showers possible.
After the referendum the development becomes more uncertain. There's a roughly 50% chance that the influence of Hurricane Edouard will bring a cold north-westerly over Scotland, such that the people of Scotland will feel chilled to their bones in terror at the folly of what they have done. there will be a refreshing nip in the air.
Extraordinary that UKIP can be up 15% and the Tories only down 2%.
Agree, I imagine they are picking up the disaffected working class Labour vote that was lost after 2005, along with the plague on all your houses from the Lib dems.
Yes Malcolm that was bit of a blow to you. The Orange Order match went smoothly and was a happy family event. Looking out of my flat at the Govan shipyards I see 8,000 of the workers you plan to lose as collateral damage working away on the new aircraft carrier. Maybe you would like to go in there and shout your abuse at them.
They will have real jobs in the future , not a few more years work. We started with 30,000 there not that long ago , now we are down to less than what you mention , believe about 3000 left at Govan and they will be gone soon under the union.
Morning all and before I go off to the Clan Sutherland Gathering final day of activities, a couple of thoughts.
1) There will be considerable irony if the Scottish Referendum turnout is 80+% making it the highest turnout in Scotland at any election since the Tories won an overall majority of both seats and votes in Scotland in 1955.
2) The Labour Party, especially in Scotland, has spent 35 years demonising the Tory Party and all things Tory. It will therefore be ironic if the Scottish people take Labour at its word, vote YES and in so doing, assign Labour to decades out of government in England.
2) So again we have a PBer saying it is not the Tories' actual policies that are causing the problem but the way Labour presents them.
I am reminded of the words of a long lost poster: "Only from the PB Tories. Only on PB."
Totally agree - Thatcher basically jettisoned those who are not "one of us". I am not so blinkered as to deny that some of the things she did were beneficial but her divisive style of politics is the root cause of where we are to day. PB Tories trying to claim that the fault lies with the way Labour has portrayed her legacy is frankly laughable.
Those who want to read the runes from the financial markets might want to consult the weekly currency charts. Sterling posted strong buy signals last week against the AUD, CAD and JPY. While this was driven primarily by weakness in those currencies against the dollar rather than by sterling strength, the technical reading is there nonetheless. The bounce in the Euro against the pound looks to be of the dead cat variety; against the USD, last Monday's gap down in sterling was arguably the climactic end to a sell off from $172 in mid-July. . The important point here is that sterling is not the ugly duckling of foreign exchange by any means, and is not demonstrating the comprehensive technical weakness that one might expect of country about to go into constitutional meltdown and a political nuclear winter.
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
I wonder if this is because of Labour voters switching in the aftermath of the Rotherham scandal. UKIP are going in hard on this. Certainly Labour seem to being given a free pass on this by the establishment and media. Imagine the wall to wall coverage and howling rentamobs that would still be out in force if Rotherham and the other northern councils were Tory. Compare and contrast with Dame Shirley Porters & co treatment for example.
Maybe the scales have now fallen and the English working class have at last realised that much of Labour since Gaitskills death have increasingly treated them as cretins who need to be kept in their place and farmed for votes, as they were taken over by middle class humanist social liberals as a vehicle for their warped worldview.
I wonder how the establishment and media would be acting if councils that were ukip controlled had been covering up assaults by English men against immigrants and ignoring the testimonies of immigrants that had been beaten up with council workers reporting an atmosphere of xenophobia that prevented them from speaking out.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
Really.
I imagine that it is UKIP policy that the police actually do their job and don't care about upsetting pakistani muslims.
I also imagine that this will be a massive vote winner.
Rather disturbing that what upsets them is the stopping of teenage girls being plied with drugs and then gang raped.
The modest difference here is why I don't feel very strongly about the referendum from a party perspective - usually one party wins by more than 3% anyway. I've got caught up in the excitement and hope for a No anyway, but the "Labour would be devastated and we'd have Tory/UKIP governments forever" stuff is just froth.
It may be a modest difference but it increases the combined Tory/UKIP share from 50% to 53%, a clear majority of votes. Makes a possible pact between the parties more likely.
The Staggers @TheStaggers 22m “They are not Muslims, they are monsters”: The PM is under mounting pressure to tackle Islamic State http://bit.ly/Zml47Q
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
Possibly if you have been reading H. P. Lovecroft or talking to SLAB pre-BT (or both at the same time). In my neck of the woods one has to be a bit more sensible than that.
On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Tories (UK) do prefer FPTP, and those that live by the sword die by the sword and all that, so they have, willynilly, pretty much transformed themselves into an English party anyway - give or take a few Welsh seats - by their reluctance to appeal to the Scottish electorate.
And they themselves started claiming that for a Scot to criticise the Tories was a priori to be an anti-English racist - I think about a year back. Though they soon thought better of that.
I remain of my opinion that (at least on the Yes and Scottish side) class and political policy, and self-determination, are far more important considerations than mere Scottish/English distinction, hard as it is to disentangle the latter as the above example shows.
If Scotland vote Yes could the Ryder cup be taken away from Gleneagles as theoretically it wouldnt be in either Europe or the UK...?
No. For one Scotland will still be in the EU after a yes vote, they might have to leave post independence but that won't happen by then. Even if it were to, Scotland would still be as much part of the continent of Europe as now. Also, the European team in the Ryder Cup counts all of the EPGA competitions as qualifiers, some of these are in Asia, Africa and even the USA. Why would they exclude Scotland?
My comments were slightly tongue in cheek...but if it is a Yes vote the event could get politicised out of all recognition..
Given that the majority of the fans attending are from England it could sour the whole tone.
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
Possibly if you have been reading H. P. Lovecroft or talking to SLAB pre-BT (or both at the same time). In my neck of the woods one has to be a bit more sensible than that.
On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Tories (UK) do prefer FPTP, and those that live by the sword die by the sword and all that, so they have, willynilly, pretty much transformed themselves into an English party anyway - give or take a few Welsh seats - by their reluctance to appeal to the Scottish electorate.
And they themselves started claiming that for a Scot to criticise the Tories was a priori to be an anti-English racist - I think about a year back. Though they soon thought better of that.
I remain of my opinion that (at least on the Yes and Scottish side) class and political policy, and self-determination, are far more important considerations than mere Scottish/English distinction, hard as it is to disentangle the latter as the above example shows.
Carnyx, I think it is very telling that all the comments re Scottish/English on the referendum have all been emanating from England. Very few people ever mention it up here in respect to the referendum.
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
I am inclined to agree with you. Our country has been destroyed by multiculturalism and immigration in a way few thought possible. Politicians who thought they were being progressive and morally superior were being stupid and thoughtless
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope
My prediction is there will be extreme violence in the next 30 odd years that will eventually result in parts of, and eventually the whole of England becoming a sharia state... When the history books are read, it will come as a surprise to kids in 2114 that it was ever any different
"We have seen nothing yet' is a phrase that we could with advantage repeat to ourselves whenever we try to form a picture of that future... There lies the certainty of violence on a scale which can only adequately be described as civil war""
What's striking about the FUK poll data is the massive lead of Con-UKIP over Labour. 53 v 34.
(We can presume any LD voters that remain are true centrists, happy with a Con-led Coalition)
In the FUK, any idea of a "progressive majority" is risible nonsense. FUK would be a rightwing country.
The Welsh may want to leave FUK because it'll be too right-wing for them, which would then increase the Con-UKIP share to about 55%. Balkanisation beckons.
Cameron has thoroughly screwed his successor with this stuff, but the least bad option for them might just be to promise a referendum with no dicking around. Cameron would be persuading more sceptics with his referendum promise if it wasn't wrapped up with a load of other stuff that everyone can see is full of holes.
That would mean locking in the errors of Lisbon for ever. That's just about the worst possible outcome which is why Cameron has quite rightly resisted a referendum without renegotiation.
Extraordinary that UKIP can be up 15% and the Tories only down 2%.
Agree, I imagine they are picking up the disaffected working class Labour vote that was lost after 2005, along with the plague on all your houses from the Lib dems.
We saw the same thing in the Euros. UKIP were 5,000 votes from beating Labour in Wales.
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
Roger, don't mean to be rude but aren't you Lefties getting confused with the script of the Gruffalo ?
It may be painful for many Yes voters to accept, but the SNP and Ukip share a founding spasm. It is one that rejects the status quo, that sees only the negative in what exists, that backs away from the values of shared responsibility, fellow-feeling and solidarity, and it is one that could fundamentally change all of our lives. Both are willing to gamble our security, prosperity, influence and key relationships on the basis of a romantic, untested theory.
Now we have dumb and dumber playing tag team. Two blind messiah Tory fans.
From the same article:
Like demagogues everywhere, they attract and make great use of the mob – the two most potent online political armies are the cybernats and the Ukippers. Go onto any newspaper website and look beneath a story about either Scottish independence or the European Union and you will find them there, amassed in great numbers, taking increasingly intemperate swipes at anyone who disagrees with their orthodoxy. These extremist internet warriors are brutal and unpleasant, and they have made the British digital debating space an environment only for those with strong constitutions and iron hides. In Scotland, sadly, they are no longer confined to the digital world.
"All eyes are focused on Scotland, but on the eastern edge of England, 2014's other great political revolt is in full effect. In the first of a new four-part series titled Britain's in trouble, John Harris travels around Ukip's eastern heartlands and finds poverty, anger and the breakdown of normal politics. From the forgotten residents of Jaywick, England's poorest council ward, to an encounter with Nigel Farage at the Royal British Legion, he finds out how a force made up largely of Tory exiles has managed to style itself as a party for the working class":
Carnyx, I think it is very telling that all the comments re Scottish/English on the referendum have all been emanating from England. Very few people ever mention it up here in respect to the referendum.
Do you think there's any link between anti-Englishness and the repeated chanting of "William Wallace" by a large group of Yessers?
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
I am inclined to agree with you. Our country has been destroyed by multiculturalism and immigration in a way few thought possible. Politicians who thought they were being progressive and morally superior were being stupid and thoughtless
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope
My prediction is there will be extreme violence in the next 30 odd years that will eventually result in parts of, and eventually the whole of England becoming a sharia state... When the history books are read, it will come as a surprise to kids in 2114 that it was ever any different
"We have seen nothing yet' is a phrase that we could with advantage repeat to ourselves whenever we try to form a picture of that future... There lies the certainty of violence on a scale which can only adequately be described as civil war""
Seriously, you need to make friends with some brown people.
I am inclined to agree with you. Our country has been destroyed by multiculturalism and immigration in a way few thought possible. Politicians who thought they were being progressive and morally superior were being stupid and thoughtless
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope
My prediction is there will be extreme violence in the next 30 odd years that will eventually result in parts of, and eventually the whole of England becoming a sharia state... When the history books are read, it will come as a surprise to kids in 2114 that it was ever any different
"We have seen nothing yet' is a phrase that we could with advantage repeat to ourselves whenever we try to form a picture of that future... There lies the certainty of violence on a scale which can only adequately be described as civil war""
Westminster Election Labour 38% +2 Conservative 23% -2 UKIP 17% +15.6 Plaid Cymru 11% -0.3 Liberal Democrat 6% -14 Green 5%
Change since 2010.
Not much movement in top two, Tories holding ground in Wales equally or maybe a bit better than nationally. UKIP replacing the Lib Dems as third party. Plaid surprisingly not getting any boost from Scotland.
Extraordinary that UKIP can be up 15% and the Tories only down 2%.
This is because the Cameroon diagnosis was only half-right. Yes, the Tories have been toxic, but in a completely different way to what the commentariat think. Their problem with the broader electorate wasn't that they were seen as a bit racist and homophobic. It was that they were seen as being culturally elitist and looking out for rich people. Thus they had a ceiling in the working class where they could only get half of the working class right wing vote. Now UKIP are here, the working class is flocking to vote for a right-wing party that doesn't have the toff dogma about them.
What do you think the currency parameters are, Peter?
My guess is that a No vote would knock the £ down to about 1.20 against the Euro. A yes would probably add a point. Neither move would be very long lasting, as the fundamentals reassert.
Mr. JS, doubtful. The Welsh have 3% of UK population and 2% of UK wealth. Voting for independence would be economically courageous.
Also, it wouldn't be Balkanisation. That would be carving England up into rubbish little regions. Whilst I'd be saddened to see the UK split, England, Wales and Scotland are distinct political entities and have been for centuries.
Mr. JS, doubtful. The Welsh have 3% of UK population and 2% of UK wealth. Voting for independence would be economically courageous.
Also, it wouldn't be Balkanisation. That would be carving England up into rubbish little regions. Whilst I'd be saddened to see the UK split, England, Wales and Scotland are distinct political entities and have been for centuries.
Wales was not a distinct political entity in 1966.
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
I am inclined to agree with you. Our country has been destroyed by multiculturalism and immigration in a way few thought possible. Politicians who thought they were being progressive and morally superior were being stupid and thoughtless
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope ""
Seriously, you need to make friends with some brown people.
How would that solve the problems isam highlights?
Cameron has thoroughly screwed his successor with this stuff, but the least bad option for them might just be to promise a referendum with no dicking around. Cameron would be persuading more sceptics with his referendum promise if it wasn't wrapped up with a load of other stuff that everyone can see is full of holes.
That would mean locking in the errors of Lisbon for ever. That's just about the worst possible outcome which is why Cameron has quite rightly resisted a referendum without renegotiation.
If the In side would win a referendum without negotiation, why are the Europhile parties so desperate to avoid it?
Am surprised that this poll shows that at least 25% of London would vote UKIP - this is contrary to most other polls.
.
But there's a problem with this view of the world, isam. While any thoughtful people would agree that it was a characteristically evil act by Labour to import millions of poor immigrants from Pakistan simply to gerrymander elections in perpetuity, with things like Rotherham in consequence, it doesn't take you forward very far. What are you going to do about those who are already here? It's all very well pointing at Rotherham and saying "Nick Griffin was right" but starting from the current position what is your solution?
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
I am inclined to agree with you. Our country has been destroyed by multiculturalism and immigration in a way few thought possible. Politicians who thought they were being progressive and morally superior were being stupid and thoughtless
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope
My prediction is there will be extreme violence in the next 30 odd years that will eventually result in parts of, and eventually the whole of England becoming a sharia state... When the history books are read, it will come as a surprise to kids in 2114 that it was ever any different
"We have seen nothing yet' is a phrase that we could with advantage repeat to ourselves whenever we try to form a picture of that future... There lies the certainty of violence on a scale which can only adequately be described as civil war""
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
Possibly if you have been reading H. P. Lovecroft or talking to SLAB pre-BT (or both at the same time). In my neck of the woods one has to be a bit more sensible than that.
On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Tories (UK) do prefer FPTP, and those that live by the sword die by the sword and all that, so they have, willynilly, pretty much transformed themselves into an English party anyway - give or take a few Welsh seats - by their reluctance to appeal to the Scottish electorate.
And they themselves started claiming that for a Scot to criticise the Tories was a priori to be an anti-English racist - I think about a year back. Though they soon thought better of that.
I remain of my opinion that (at least on the Yes and Scottish side) class and political policy, and self-determination, are far more important considerations than mere Scottish/English distinction, hard as it is to disentangle the latter as the above example shows.
Carnyx, I think it is very telling that all the comments re Scottish/English on the referendum have all been emanating from England. Very few people ever mention it up here in respect to the referendum.
So it would be a complete unionist turnip jessie who plays with dolls who referred to the BBC as the EBC then?
It was pleasing to see another hacking and slashing centre right government bite the dust yesterday.
Congratulations Sweden.
The big domino remains to be toppled here in May, but it's certainly wobbling...
I should not be too glad, if I were you. The result of the election was a shift to the right, not a shift to the left. The new government has only 43% of the seats in Parliament.
Yes, and the Feminist Party failed to pass the entrance to parliament threshold. Fancy having a party of only female dominatrix' gossiping away in Westminster?....ugh!
Imagine a party founded by Harriet Harman, Julie Bindel, Mary Honeyball, on amphetamines, and you get Feminist Initiative. Their main argument seems to be that there isn't enough authoritarian political correctness in Sweden.
If the In side would win a referendum without negotiation, why are the Europhile parties so desperate to avoid it?
In the case of Labour, obviously because they want the issue to continue to cause trouble for the Conservatives. In the case of the LibDems, who knows?
In any case there's obviously a small risk from their point of view - say a 5% to 10% risk, and no benefit. The only party to benefit by closing off the issue would be the Conservatives.
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
Possibly if you have been reading H. P. Lovecroft or talking to SLAB pre-BT (or both at the same time). In my neck of the woods one has to be a bit more sensible than that.
On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Tories (UK) do prefer FPTP, and those that live by the sword die by the sword and all that, so they have, willynilly, pretty much transformed themselves into an English party anyway - give or take a few Welsh seats - by their reluctance to appeal to the Scottish electorate.
And they themselves started claiming that for a Scot to criticise the Tories was a priori to be an anti-English racist - I think about a year back. Though they soon thought better of that.
I remain of my opinion that (at least on the Yes and Scottish side) class and political policy, and self-determination, are far more important considerations than mere Scottish/English distinction, hard as it is to disentangle the latter as the above example shows.
Carnyx, I think it is very telling that all the comments re Scottish/English on the referendum have all been emanating from England. Very few people ever mention it up here in respect to the referendum.
Ah, thanks very much - that was niggling at the back of my mind but I couldn't pin it down, and you've crystallised it. Perhaps because I'm not always sure of people's locations. Obviously there is a geographical distinction - it is inevitable in independence - but the political criticism is aimed at Westminster, rather than England and the English (the issue of whose governance has been discussed with considerable sympathy for years in Scottish political websites, not least because it connects with the Scottish crisis as we all now).
If the In side would win a referendum without negotiation, why are the Europhile parties so desperate to avoid it?
In the case of Labour, obviously because they want the issue to continue to cause trouble for the Conservatives. In the case of the LibDems, who knows?
In any case there's obviously a small risk from their point of view - say a 5% to 10% risk, and no benefit. The only party to benefit by closing off the issue would be the Conservatives.
Oh, because the EU is never an issue for Labour. That's why Gordon Brown had to go and sign Lisbon on his own afterwards?
Comments
It was also cheering to hear people toot their horns or put their thumbs up when they saw we were from Better Together. Are you the only Scottish Tory in your campaign group? We had Tories Labour, a Green and peope of no party. Quite a mix.
"You worked out what your name is yet"
The Sauchiehall One is back! Hooray!
It won't be an outsider, as they won't be able to get the support they would need. The reason I suggested Theresa May is that she is really popular in the party and is also liked by EU sceptic backbenchers. Electing a women as leader who is not part of the old Etonian club, would be seen as a smart move. Whether May would be popular with the UK public, I am not so sure.
...What do you mean Salmond thinks there are different rules for Scotland and rUK?
Don't be shy.
Con 33.2 Lab 33.7 LD 8.1 UKIP 21.0 Others 4.2
He had a self-justifying piece a week ago which basically say that even if Yes win by a landslide it's not areal Yes vote and the natural support of Yes is 25% of the country.
Personally I reckon we should trust people to make their own choices ;-)
I to have become quietly confident it will be a No. The main reason is that there are some areas such as the Borders, Edinburgh, East Renfrewshire which are massively against. I would not be surprised to see ratios as high as 75/25 in areas such as East Renfrew. I was there last week and did not meet a single Yes voter.
After all the hype about massive turnouts I am now thinking it may not be more than 70-75%. There are just a bunch of people who have got bored of the whole thing, will be high on methadone, forget about it, too busy and are not used to voting.
The SNP are desperately trying to play down the brass plate move but everyone knows it will be much more than that. I have a friend who runs a call centre site in Belfast and is looking at doubling capacity if Scotland votes Yes. The reality is that people prefer to speak to people from their own country and not foreigners. That is why Ireland (Eire) has almost no call centres supporting the UK. The Scottish economy is highly integrated with the UK and completely different from Ireland which is a combination of small domestic companies and global exports of goods enticed with low wages and low corporate taxes. Ireland has slightly better wealth inequality measures than the UK but 11% unemployment. This is the model that Salmond plans to follow. As such you could see maybe up to 100,000 becoming unemployed in Scotland within 2 to 3 years.
"Not a Scottish/English distinction (whether by birth, residence or state of mind) but a class one primarily - there are quite a few Tories (sensu lato) in Scotland. The voting system of the Scottish Pmt makes this far clearer than Westminster's FPTP."
My impression is that a "TORY" from a Scottish perspective isn't someone on the right or someone who votes Conservative or who even someone who is a member of the Party. It's a description of an altogether darker creature particularly if it has 'ENGLISH' in front of it
I havent seen or heard a peep from him..
You can see the claim now "Daves intervention saved the Union"
He'd fit in really well here, and PB could finally get its first SLABer.
At this point UKIP/BNP/EDL falls deafeningly silent, either because they have no idea or they realise that what they want to do is not a vote winner.
Westminster Election
Labour 38% +2
Conservative 23% -2
UKIP 17% +15.6
Plaid Cymru 11% -0.3
Liberal Democrat 6% -14
Green 5%
Change since 2010.
Not much movement in top two, Tories holding ground in Wales equally or maybe a bit better than nationally. UKIP replacing the Lib Dems as third party. Plaid surprisingly not getting any boost from Scotland.
http://www.itv.com/news/wales/update/2014-09-15/new-poll-shows-wales-strongly-against-scottish-independence/
Also I wouldn't class Edinburgh as 'massively' against. Against I would agree with but massively is an optimistic call.
Alastair Ross @AlastairRoss 2 hrs
Ben Thomson chairman of @devoplus tells #BBCGMS he's leaning towards an #indyref Yes vote as he's sceptical of delivery of more powers
Provided I wasn't actually living in either country at the time it would be fascinating to watch either leader win power and try to deliver. I pity whoever had to try and pick up the pieces five years on.
I imagine that it is UKIP policy that the police actually do their job and don't care about upsetting pakistani muslims.
I also imagine that this will be a massive vote winner.
New video on the rise of Ukip in Eastern England by John Harris @guardian http://bit.ly/1uOknhz
"After all the hype about massive turnouts I am now thinking it may not be more than 70-75%."
If you really think that is the case, you can lay at 7/1 on with Betfair and clean up.
http://ayewecan.blogspot.co.uk/2013/05/my-brother-ian-smart-is-not-racist.html
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/08/01/my-brother-ian-smart-tie-to-act-johann/
I've suddenly realised you're not even Scottish.
I think you find it will maybe not the EU but definitely in Europe.
Anyway I hope you are wrong as I have just taken Skys latest offering of half price for 12 months mainly on the back of seeing Gleneagles in all its splendor later this month
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On the day of the referendum it is expected to be generally dry, perhaps a touch mild, with the best of the weather expected in the West. Across the border to the South it will be warm and humid, with isolated heavy showers possible.
After the referendum the development becomes more uncertain. There's a roughly 50% chance that the influence of Hurricane Edouard will bring a cold north-westerly over Scotland, such that the people of Scotland will feel chilled to their bones in terror at the folly of what they have done. there will be a refreshing nip in the air.
The Staggers @TheStaggers 22m
“They are not Muslims, they are monsters”: The PM is under mounting pressure to tackle Islamic State http://bit.ly/Zml47Q
On the other hand, it must be admitted that the Tories (UK) do prefer FPTP, and those that live by the sword die by the sword and all that, so they have, willynilly, pretty much transformed themselves into an English party anyway - give or take a few Welsh seats - by their reluctance to appeal to the Scottish electorate.
And they themselves started claiming that for a Scot to criticise the Tories was a priori to be an anti-English racist - I think about a year back. Though they soon thought better of that.
I remain of my opinion that (at least on the Yes and Scottish side) class and political policy, and self-determination, are far more important considerations than mere Scottish/English distinction, hard as it is to disentangle the latter as the above example shows.
Thankfully NO is going to win by a headshot.
40 or 50 years ago if someone could have fast forwarded to the headlines we see in the papers over the last 18 months regarding Lee Rigby, Northern child abuse and British jihadists in Isis esp the plight of David Haines, I don't think anyone would have believed them. If they had said that white Brits were a minority in London I think they would have been disbelieved again.
The people causing the violence are British, immigrant descended not immigrants, who live in a segregated ghettos and are disenfranchised from what most would have called the English way of life
I have little hope it will get better in terms of violence, I think it will get catastrophically worse... But what can be done? If you flag up the be headings and bombs as proof that something's up, people shoot you down as racist. As you say, Nick Griffin, someone who I wouldn't vote for, did flag up the child abuse and was charged for racism. David Cameron is saying it's not really Muslims doing it etc, so I have little hope
My prediction is there will be extreme violence in the next 30 odd years that will eventually result in parts of, and eventually the whole of England becoming a sharia state... When the history books are read, it will come as a surprise to kids in 2114 that it was ever any different
"We have seen nothing yet' is a phrase that we could with advantage repeat to ourselves whenever we try to form a picture of that future... There lies the certainty of violence on a scale which can only adequately be described as civil war""
http://www.gruffalo.com/
Like demagogues everywhere, they attract and make great use of the mob – the two most potent online political armies are the cybernats and the Ukippers. Go onto any newspaper website and look beneath a story about either Scottish independence or the European Union and you will find them there, amassed in great numbers, taking increasingly intemperate swipes at anyone who disagrees with their orthodoxy. These extremist internet warriors are brutal and unpleasant, and they have made the British digital debating space an environment only for those with strong constitutions and iron hides. In Scotland, sadly, they are no longer confined to the digital world.
That's some downward trend.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2014/sep/15/ukip-england-east-world-upside-down-video?CMP=twt_gu
Jaywick is part of the Clacton constituency.
What do you think the currency parameters are, Peter?
My guess is that a No vote would knock the £ down to about 1.20 against the Euro. A yes would probably add a point. Neither move would be very long lasting, as the fundamentals reassert.
About right?
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 34 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 8 (+1). Tables here: http://popu.lu/s_vi140915
Mr. JS, doubtful. The Welsh have 3% of UK population and 2% of UK wealth. Voting for independence would be economically courageous.
Also, it wouldn't be Balkanisation. That would be carving England up into rubbish little regions. Whilst I'd be saddened to see the UK split, England, Wales and Scotland are distinct political entities and have been for centuries.
Latest Populus VI: Lab 35 (-2), Con 34 (+1), LD 9 (=), UKIP 13 (=), Oth 8 (+1).
Not you......?
In any case there's obviously a small risk from their point of view - say a 5% to 10% risk, and no benefit. The only party to benefit by closing off the issue would be the Conservatives.