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YouGov MRP poll has CON losing to LAB all but 3 of 88 marginals – politicalbetting.com
YouGov MRP poll has CON losing to LAB all but 3 of 88 marginals – politicalbetting.com
With all the focus at Westminster being on whether Johnson will face a confidence vote amongst CON MPs there’s gloomy news for him this morning from YouGov which has its latest MRP survey out. This shows the party losing 85 out of 88 key marginals.
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I'm guessing "no".
https://twitter.com/meduza_en/status/1530225948037349376
Sources close to the Kremlin tell Meduza that Russia’s top leadership is considering another assault on Kyiv and expecting to win a war of attrition against Kyiv and its Western allies.
https://twitter.com/ByMikeBaker/status/1530357140191186944
Sack the lot.
Student calls to 911:
12:03—whispered she's in room 112
12:10—said multiple dead
12:13—called again
12:16—says 8-9 students alive
12:19—student calls from room 111
12:21—3 shots heard on call
12:36—another call
12:43—asks for police
12:47—asks for police
https://twitter.com/pitgpitw1/status/1530239595459145728
"As horrible as what happened, it could have been worse. The reason it was not worse is because law enforcement officials did what they do . . . because of their quick response . . . they were able to save lives.”
@GregAbbott_TX
, May 25, 2022
https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1530255125020819456
Cornyn (R-TX) on Senate floor on his visit to Uvalde Wednesday:"During the briefing from law enforcement, 2 of the Uvalde police officers who responded to the shooting shared their harrowing experiences with us,& in the face of such unthinkable evil,their courage was unwavering."
Confronted with mass shootings, Texas Republicans have repeatedly loosened gun laws
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/24/texas-gun-laws-uvalde-mass-shootings/
This time, Gov. Greg Abbott has few suggestions on how the state might prevent future mass shootings
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-texas-shooting-greg-abbott-response/
After previous mass killings during his more than seven years in office, Abbott has pledged that lawmakers and his administration would search for solutions. He made no substantive suggestions Wednesday.
It’s just a matter of time before these people are demanding that school kids be armed.
1. The YouGov MRP substantially underestimated the scale of the Conservative victory in 2019.
2. There could be 2.5 years plus until the next election.
3. More fundamentally, the predictive value of polling held even quite close to an election can be very poor indeed. How quickly we have forgotten 2017.
For all these reasons I would be inclined not to pay much attention to opinion polls full stop. They only become relevant if and when they get consistently bad enough to set off widespread panic within the Tory party about a heavy loss of seats, and even then they might not change anything.
The Conservatives are listless, rudderless, dithering and weak - and if a sense of fatalism about the inevitability of defeat sets in amongst them (such that MPs in threatened marginals throw in the towel and start to research different career opportunities, and the rest of the party starts to go on about how a period in opposition might actually be good for it,) then they might grow so apathetic that they simply lack the energy to give Johnson the heave-ho. It might ultimately be viewed as less trouble to let the voters of Uxbridge and South Ruislip do their dirty work for them.
I would love to see similar work in the Blue Wall which I believe to be turning Yellow across parts of southern Britain. Chunks of west London and Surrey are going to fall to the LibDems.
I mentioned a while back that throwing red meat to the dogs was a foolhardy approach. It didn't work for Major with his 'Back to Basics' and it didn't work for William Hague. The Conservatives now risk losing vast swathes of BOTH their new found (and fickle) support in the north AND their traditional voters down south.
I expect our dear resident cheerleader, HYUFD, will find something to latch onto but for most Conservatives this should be chilling.
They are heading like the Gadarene swine over the precipice into the sea.
And as someone posted the other day, I hope the tories DO cling on to the wicked fool in No. 10 because he deserves to receive the public evisceration he will get at the General Election.
They went blundering into Afghanistan to try to make it more like America; now they want to turn America into Afghanistan. The circle is complete.
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/05/25/uvalde-texas-shooting-greg-abbott-response/
The best outcome for the next election would be something that leaves a Labour minority reliant on both the SNP and the Liberal Democrats to get all its business through the Commons. Approximately 60 Labour and 20 LD gains from the Tories would leave them on about 280 seats and should create that kind of position - the aim, of course, being to leave Labour well short of an overall majority, put the Tories in a good potential position to win the election after next, and thus to maximise the chance of Labour implementing electoral reform.
The best means to ensure that we are never again faced with an awful choice like Johnson or Corbyn for Prime Minister, as well as to get rid of the safe seat problem which means that most of us might as well not bother to vote at all, is finally to junk FPTP.
However, SKS is not Tony Blair and that may, for the reasons you cite, come to be seen as a good thing.
1) LDs and SNP agree to go into formal coalition with the LP
or
2) LDs ands SNP would only support the LP with no formal coalition
Or would LDs opt for one and the SNP the other.
Bear in mind that only formal coalition would result in LD and SNP cabinet ministers.
https://twitter.com/acyn/status/1530322212309200896?s=21&t=8cJ5SXfewxipmtcG9tlICw
On this I think he's wrong. Sometimes in politics, once in a generation, a seismic shift happens and it's up to us to read the runes.
Six months ago when partygate broke, the polls shifted by about 10% or more i.e. a swing of 5-6%. The Conservatives lost any leads they had and Labour have led in the polls ever since.
It's a shift and I believe it's a fundamental one. The tories have lost their majority.
(Unless they remove Boris Johnson)
I'd imagine there'd be an informal agreement, like the Lib-Lab Pact in the 1970s, or possibly confidence and supply at most.
Got switched to overload
And nobody's gonna go to school today
She's gonna make them stay at home
Not always man or men. Usually is, but not always. 😞
Remember too in 2019 the Yougov MRP model underestimated the Tory seat total, predicting 339 rather than the 365 actually won
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/10/final-2019-general-election-mrp-model-small-
You should read this ... and weep.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/05/27/tories-win-next-election-boris-has-go/
It didn't poll all those places in the south where you are now about to lose your blue wall to the LibDems: see Bob Neil's article about what's happening in his constituency of Bromley.
Nor did it look at Scotland and Wales.
Cling to your desperate signs HY if you like but you are disappearing down a rabbit hole of self-delusion.
On the LDs: you think Davey would give up the chance of holding a senior position in the cabinet and pushing for PR?
Plus if Labour are gaining 85 out of 88 marginals then they're probably winning some that aren't classed as marginals, just as they did in 1997.
Opinion polls at this stage of a Parliament are pretty much worthless junk, but that swings in both directions. The next election could see the Tories win another majority, probably reduced now if they did, or it could see a Labour majority. Or anything in-between.
Nothing is pre-determined.
Where I think Heathener and others have a point is that when one Party has persistent poll leads it's solidifies the vote and becomes more difficult for the other team to turn round. Labour's leads are not big, but they are persistent, as Sunil likes to point out regularly. I really do think it is important for the Conservative Party to address the matter urgently if it wants to hold on to power.
To me, that means removing Johnson. I'd like to see that principally for the good of the country. He's a bad PM; it's as simple as that. As a left-leaning poster I'd be bound to think that way too, although the irony is that a different leader would very likely restore Conservative fortunes in good time for the GE.
As one of our most eminent Conservative posters I can understand it might be awkward for you to acknowledge that but I suspect that in your Eping redoubt these thoughts are quietly acknowledged.
If you guys are going to change the boss, I think you need to do it fairly quickly. I'd say you have the summer. Autumn would probably too late. On balance though, I suspect it won't happen, but I'm not betting on it, either way.
US threatens to limit intelligence cooperation in row over Britain's secret submarine tech
American officials warn that delaying sale of Ultra Electronics risks security relationship
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/05/27/us-threatens-limit-intelligence-cooperation-row-britains-secret/ (£££)
Swings can always happen and they can always go in either direction, and as I said a couple of years ago if the swing is large enough to wipe out the majority then don't rule out it being large enough to actually create one for the other side.
Several Welsh seats are mentioned in the list. The header link didn't work for me, but the list is here:
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1530323716902641665?t=nem4NLuSybYxEphLYUYJjg&s=19
But it won't be triggered unless there is some form of group organisation to submit letters together, en masse. This is what Tugendhat was talking about the other day.
I'm always amazed that commentators on here take mid-term polls so seriously. They are as much use as toilet paper - in fact rather less so.
It's astonishing to me that some people simply don't realise what's happening, fail to perceive the shift that has happened. When a seismic shift happens, it happens. I saw it in 1978-9 and again in 1992-7. The former is the really interesting one because Maggie did not win a huge majority (44) in May 1979: but the shift was sufficient.
December 2021 will come to be seen as a seismic shift. Your man was caught. The nation will not forget.
People are furious and hurt about partygate and no amount of dissing the topic by the Right on here is going to undo that. You will lose your majority unless you remove Johnson.
Of course, added to this is the economic and fiscal meltdown that we're entering.
Btw, Hyufd fights on the front line. You can't afford self-delusion there.
What did you do against the corruption in no 10? Nothing.
https://twitter.com/timd_ifg/status/1530244747549413377?s=21&t=OjSSErQ-dBsLZhjfAN1o_w
After the Gray Report, Bob Neill cannot accept that Boris did not know what was going on.
Bob Neill is MP for Bromley & Chislehurst where they weigh the Tory vote. Constituents say they support the Conservatives but not Boris.
The first part of the article is essentially what Neill has posted on his website at
https://www.bobneill.org.uk/news/statement-publication-sue-grays-report
I suppose one could argue the scrapping of the fixed term parliaments act was anti-democractic as it bought the government another six months. But if we go beyond may 2024, then I think it’s safe to say the Tories are done.
Otherwise, it's just projecting mid-term blues.
71% of Britons - including 49% of Conservative voters - think that Boris Johnson is not genuinely sorry about what happened in Downing Street during lockdowns
https://t.co/mGLUs12GBK https://t.co/cnRUOEBRsq
That would make the next election competitive; it's not an inevitable loss the way it was in 1997.
I'd also suggest that most if not all of those names would make a better PM, and that kind of matters in itself.
The Tories have plenty of tools at their disposal - not least control of the electoral process. Don’t forget: they are making it harder to vote (a move that will affect non-Tory demographics disproportionately) and have ended the Electoral Commission’s independence. There is still time to do a lot more of the same. Control of the process gives a lot more control over the outcome, of course.
All that said, if the polls don’t move much after Sunak’s announcement that should set a few more Tory alarm bells ringing, especially if accompanied by two by-election defeats.
I no longer think that which is a credit to the efforts of SKS and a reflection of the chaos Boris has unleashed on the party and the country. What does the current government stand for? It's certainly not economic stability, balanced accounts, a long term perspective on our problems, low taxes, an environment that promotes investment and training, I could go on all day.
I think, in fairness, they have had an extremely difficult hand to play with the economic catastrophe of Covid, the consequences of Putin's mad invasion and an ever more beligerent China but they seem to me to stagger from one make do to the next without a plan, without vision, without thought of the consequences. They are an extremely unconservative government in every way. They do not respect the rule of law, our institutions, our sense of dignity and proprietry. Enough.
The country will boot them out.
Play nicely everyone.
But yes, after the fact, murderer is the right term.
Seems a long way to go to be honest.
Plus Starmer did tend to poll the best of the 3 Labour leadership contenders
Meanwhile, the cost of living and inflation eats away at the lifestyle and savings of ever increasing numbers of us,
As much as the South is slowly trending away from the Tories due to the increasing housing problems there, I would not consider Epping Forest with its 22,173 vote majority remotely on the 'front line'
*actually first mooted by the LibDems, I believe, not that I particularly support it.
Housing problems and lack of home owners is also more a London problem. If anything it is building too much on the greenbelt which the LDs scaremonger about locally here
Only Cameron had it relatively easy, but he contrived to shoot himself in the foot.
However, Tory MPs will take note of them - saving their own skins and saving the Tory brand in general may do for Johnson rather than the Partygate stuff itself.
You see it a lot in fast-moving, high-pressured or technically complex situations, where clear communication is important. It’s why we have a phonetic alphabet, and why pilots say “affirm” and “negative”, rather than “yes” and “no”, on the radio.
The changes to the Ministerial Code are codifying in practice what has long already happened anyway, and were changes recommended by the Standards Committee, which I believe has amongst its members such well known Tory stooges as *checks notes* Dame Margaret Beckett.
In the aftermath of the Patterson scandal the PM promised to implement whatever changes were recommended by the Committee, after that was demanded by MPs across the House. Now that he's done so, you're complaining about it.
There's plenty of serious stuff to complain about the PM for, without resorting to artificial synthetic outrage.
If (as pigeon posits) the LP win most seats but are reliant on support from both the LDs and SNP, which of these scenarios would play out?:
1) LDs and SNP agree to go into formal coalition with the LP
or
2) LDs ands SNP would only support the LP with no formal coalition
Or would LDs opt for one and the SNP the other.
Bear in mind that only formal coalition would result in LD and SNP cabinet ministers.
The key is to oust Boris and the sooner the better
Rishi made an extraordinary play for popularity this week with a support package far more generous than labour and has attracted compliments from many including the IFS
His vow to upgrade pensions and benefits by this September's inflation rate next April is huge and it must not be forgotten he is to address business taxes this Autumn
He has promised further help next year if necessary and will have several more opportunities to reduce tax before the next GE including the already announced 19% standard rate in April 24
There is so much for conservatives mps to be positive about once Boris is gone and his dead weight on the party removed
I really hope over this holiday period they come to their senses and do the right thing..
Also my pre Rishi announcement to reassess Rishi for next PM may not be so outlandish
There is principle and ideology there but it is buried deep, occasionally popping up like an unflushable one; but one only gets a glimpse.
The question is whether, after the rebates, Conservatives can now say, we know times are hard but at least
Rishithe government is on your side.I want the PM to go, I've said so for a long time now. But to say he is undermining democracy because he implemented the reforms recommended by the Standards Committee after MPs around the house demanded that he implements the reforms recommended by the Standards Committee, and after he pledged in the House to implement the reforms recommended by the Standards Committee is just utterly ridiculous.
If he didn't implement these reforms, then you'd be complaining that he'd lied to the House when he said he would. If he does, he's undermining democracy.
Taking your point the fact that this stupidity is what Labour were coming up with as an alternative to the government policy (now abandoned) does not inspire optimism.
All successful ones do. People who take politics seriously are annoyed by this. Some feel that it somehow shouldn't be allowed. But taking politics seriously doesn't mean you're better at it. We have people allowed out on their own who believe North Korea is the route to go down. If only people could see what Kim, whoever he is now, is being seriously maligned.
For what it's worth, I have no time for Bojo, but he's good at what he does. It may feel like Frankie Howerd on a bad day, but I have only one vote.
Wilson took to a pipe, Bojo has a vaudeville routine, Corbyn is a Trotsky tribute act, Putin controls the media. Whichever stage act you prefer automatically gains credibility. There's no science to it. Political science is a great oxymoron.
Let it wash over you. Democracy is the important thing.
F1: some interesting things in practice. Bottas just not troubling the top half of the timesheets is unexpected. And Norris could be worth a shot for a podium at 8.2.
Right now, Sainz at 7 for qualifying (or 6 each way with Ladbrokes) is tempting. And if Red Bull can sort themselves out then Perez at 15 (or 22 on Betfair) is way too long.
I'd suggest hedging, as traffic or errors can easily halt fast laps.
As for the LDs, would Davey give up the chance of being, say, Deputy PM or Chancellor?