Yes, Edinburgh looks very weird in this context. 13 councillors forming a minority administration, and even then they could only get 11 of those Labour councillors to support it. I'd be shocked if it goes the distance.
Even if it doesn't last, the short term consternation from the zoomers has been hugely entertaining
All part of the game, like the songs on the terraces. It's Mr Sarwar's promise of no coalitions that has been a particular issue this time round, though, not entirely helped by its arguably intentionally deceptive wording. This is going to be interesting, especially after the Aberdeen fiasco in which he reversed Mr Leonard's policy - and then he seemed to reverse ferret and accept it after all.
Madness for Nat ‘zoomers’ to highlight SLab working with the SCons, no political benefit whatsoever.
Meanwhile..
Now, that is interesting - Mr Findlay is hardly some no-account councillor.
1. The YouGov MRP substantially underestimated the scale of the Conservative victory in 2019. 2. There could be 2.5 years plus until the next election. 3. More fundamentally, the predictive value of polling held even quite close to an election can be very poor indeed. How quickly we have forgotten 2017.
For all these reasons I would be inclined not to pay much attention to opinion polls full stop. They only become relevant if and when they get consistently bad enough to set off widespread panic within the Tory party about a heavy loss of seats, and even then they might not change anything.
The Conservatives are listless, rudderless, dithering and weak - and if a sense of fatalism about the inevitability of defeat sets in amongst them (such that MPs in threatened marginals throw in the towel and start to research different career opportunities, and the rest of the party starts to go on about how a period in opposition might actually be good for it,) then they might grow so apathetic that they simply lack the energy to give Johnson the heave-ho. It might ultimately be viewed as less trouble to let the voters of Uxbridge and South Ruislip do their dirty work for them.
It's a real long-shot but the worst thing for Labour would be an economic recovery and change of PM by, say, the end of 2023 - maybe a 25% shot….
It would have to be the other way round. No way is Johnson going if they procrastinate long enough for there to be a chance of economic recovery.
Good article in the Atlantic explaining how small, rural, Republican states have power far beyond their numbers in the US system thanks to the filibuster, repeatedly stopping policies which have clear majority support such as gun control:
I must confess in 2019 it seemed to me that the self indulgent stupidity of Labour putting Corbyn forward as PM for the second time had not only lost that election but the next one. At that time my expectation was that a worst case for the Tories was probably a 1992 victory the next time out.
I no longer think that which is a credit to the efforts of SKS and a reflection of the chaos Boris has unleashed on the party and the country. What does the current government stand for? It's certainly not economic stability, balanced accounts, a long term perspective on our problems, low taxes, an environment that promotes investment and training, I could go on all day.
I think, in fairness, they have had an extremely difficult hand to play with the economic catastrophe of Covid, the consequences of Putin's mad invasion and an ever more beligerent China but they seem to me to stagger from one make do to the next without a plan, without vision, without thought of the consequences. They are an extremely unconservative government in every way. They do not respect the rule of law, our institutions, our sense of dignity and proprietry. Enough.
Tangentially, everyone keeps calling Boris a lucky general, but his time in office has been uniquely blighted by circumstance even if you ignore his own moral and practical failings.
I must confess in 2019 it seemed to me that the self indulgent stupidity of Labour putting Corbyn forward as PM for the second time had not only lost that election but the next one. At that time my expectation was that a worst case for the Tories was probably a 1992 victory the next time out.
I no longer think that which is a credit to the efforts of SKS and a reflection of the chaos Boris has unleashed on the party and the country. What does the current government stand for? It's certainly not economic stability, balanced accounts, a long term perspective on our problems, low taxes, an environment that promotes investment and training, I could go on all day.
I think, in fairness, they have had an extremely difficult hand to play with the economic catastrophe of Covid, the consequences of Putin's mad invasion and an ever more beligerent China but they seem to me to stagger from one make do to the next without a plan, without vision, without thought of the consequences. They are an extremely unconservative government in every way. They do not respect the rule of law, our institutions, our sense of dignity and proprietry. Enough.
Tangentially, everyone keeps calling Boris a lucky general, but his time in office has been uniquely blighted by circumstance even if you ignore his own moral and practical failings.
BoJo's talent is to project an image successfully. An amateur blundering around, but at heart someone who wants the best for the country. Harold Wilson projected a cuddly image. Margaret Thatcher a competent, functional image.
Sorry but the only image I get of Bozo is someone in it for himself and destroying anyone or anything that would remove him from where he is.
"Is there any precedent for help with cost of living crises?"
It's totally new to me. I suppose it must be a younger generation, namby-pamby, mental health issue. Every time inflation goes over 2% , it will be start printing money or we'll be all be bigots.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Don't know they are born, do they? In the 70s I was living on a small island in a lake of sulphuric acid...
But I don't see how it's working if it's not hurting. The one thing worse than a wage inflation spiral is a wage plus government help for hard working families inflation spiral
Though for most people, it will still hurt an awful lot. Sadly, necessarily so.
(And even the £400 per household is largely recycling the windfall from freezing tax thresholds when inflation is about 10%.)
If 54 letters do go in and in the resulting VOC 184 (say) Tory MPs vote against Johnson one wonders why 130 of them lacked confidence in their leader but didn't bother brandishing their quills.
Indeed. There is no point in a vote unless it is won.
Is the confidence vote public or by secret ballot?
Secret. That's why I think Johnson will lose it.
Submitting letters can be secret too, and yet while we don't know how many are in we do know it's not enough. Secrecy doesn't always lead to boldness.
I must confess in 2019 it seemed to me that the self indulgent stupidity of Labour putting Corbyn forward as PM for the second time had not only lost that election but the next one. At that time my expectation was that a worst case for the Tories was probably a 1992 victory the next time out.
I no longer think that which is a credit to the efforts of SKS and a reflection of the chaos Boris has unleashed on the party and the country. What does the current government stand for? It's certainly not economic stability, balanced accounts, a long term perspective on our problems, low taxes, an environment that promotes investment and training, I could go on all day.
I think, in fairness, they have had an extremely difficult hand to play with the economic catastrophe of Covid, the consequences of Putin's mad invasion and an ever more beligerent China but they seem to me to stagger from one make do to the next without a plan, without vision, without thought of the consequences. They are an extremely unconservative government in every way. They do not respect the rule of law, our institutions, our sense of dignity and proprietry. Enough.
Tangentially, everyone keeps calling Boris a lucky general, but his time in office has been uniquely blighted by circumstance even if you ignore his own moral and practical failings.
BoJo's talent is to project an image successfully. An amateur blundering around, but at heart someone who wants the best for the country. Harold Wilson projected a cuddly image. Margaret Thatcher a competent, functional image.
Sorry but the only image I get of Bozo is someone in it for himself and destroying anyone or anything that would remove him from where he is.
CD13 is correct that Boris has carefully crafted an image, a persona. Where I disagree is that the notion that that Boris includes projecting he wants the best for the country. It isn’t part of it.
Critically Boris projects an image that he is an anti-politics anti-politician. He is there to take down the pomposity of the establishment. His constituency are those who want to see the world burn.
Ironically, he is the very essence of the establishment and pomposity. It’s a potent trick.
I must confess in 2019 it seemed to me that the self indulgent stupidity of Labour putting Corbyn forward as PM for the second time had not only lost that election but the next one. At that time my expectation was that a worst case for the Tories was probably a 1992 victory the next time out.
I no longer think that which is a credit to the efforts of SKS and a reflection of the chaos Boris has unleashed on the party and the country. What does the current government stand for? It's certainly not economic stability, balanced accounts, a long term perspective on our problems, low taxes, an environment that promotes investment and training, I could go on all day.
I think, in fairness, they have had an extremely difficult hand to play with the economic catastrophe of Covid, the consequences of Putin's mad invasion and an ever more beligerent China but they seem to me to stagger from one make do to the next without a plan, without vision, without thought of the consequences. They are an extremely unconservative government in every way. They do not respect the rule of law, our institutions, our sense of dignity and proprietry. Enough.
Tangentially, everyone keeps calling Boris a lucky general, but his time in office has been uniquely blighted by circumstance even if you ignore his own moral and practical failings.
Yes, that is very fair. Almost any PM would have struggled with the last few years. I think the importance of Brexit is constantly overstated but there is also no question that the country has been deeply divided by it just as we in Scotland continue to be deeply divided by independence. Divided countries are never easy to govern but it needs a PM who can work hard at bringing people together and developing a sense of common purpose. Boris is almost the antithitis of this. He thrives on division, scorn and lying. It has undoubtedly aggravated the situation.
I agree Boris has been hit by extraordinary events since becoming PM, more extraordinary than any PM since Chamberlain . However that doesn't mean it should be a disadvantage. Boris doesn't get blamed for causing COVID and it is an opportunity to take credit for handling it. What it has done is suppressed all the potential Brexit disaster stories such that only Leon now keeps going on about it and for that he is lucky.
It’s almost certainly true that, absent the pandemic, an eager pro-EU media would have been splashing every small story of trade friction as if it were the Apocolypse, on a daily basis since 2021.
If 54 letters do go in and in the resulting VOC 184 (say) Tory MPs vote against Johnson one wonders why 130 of them lacked confidence in their leader but didn't bother brandishing their quills.
Indeed. There is no point in a vote unless it is won.
Is the confidence vote public or by secret ballot?
Secret. That's why I think Johnson will lose it.
Submitting letters can be secret too, and yet while we don't know how many are in we do know it's not enough. Secrecy doesn't always lead to boldness.
But getting to 54 is a substantive tipping point not just procedural. Now: Big Dog is so powerful his enemies cannot even get 54 letters in; he is invulnerable and will triumph at whatever he sets his hand to. Then: cancel that last thought.
BoJo's talent is to project an image successfully. An amateur blundering around, but at heart someone who wants the best for the country. Harold Wilson projected a cuddly image. Margaret Thatcher a competent, functional image.
All successful ones do. People who take politics seriously are annoyed by this. Some feel that it somehow shouldn't be allowed. But taking politics seriously doesn't mean you're better at it. We have people allowed out on their own who believe North Korea is the route to go down. If only people could see what Kim, whoever he is now, is being seriously maligned.
For what it's worth, I have no time for Bojo, but he's good at what he does. It may feel like Frankie Howerd on a bad day, but I have only one vote.
Wilson took to a pipe, Bojo has a vaudeville routine, Corbyn is a Trotsky tribute act, Putin controls the media. Whichever stage act you prefer automatically gains credibility. There's no science to it. Political science is a great oxymoron.
Let it wash over you. Democracy is the important thing.
I'm not sure I understand what you are saying. That he projects an image of himself that is invented and he does it well and though it might be irritating it's successful? And you say this in reply to a header that suggests he's heading for an unprecedented failure and with approval ratings lower than Corbyn's?
If this is what you're saying then shouldn't he try his talents at something where they are appreciated?
BoJo's talent is to project an image successfully. An amateur blundering around, but at heart someone who wants the best for the country. Harold Wilson projected a cuddly image. Margaret Thatcher a competent, functional image.
Sorry but the only image I get of Bozo is someone in it for himself and destroying anyone or anything that would remove him from where he is.
True, but anyone here counts as an expert.
The Boris facade is that he isn't a politician, and he wants the best for the country.
The Boris reality is that he has all the vices of politicians but none of the virtues... That takes a while to realise. But everyone gets there in the end.
Reader, I voted for him a couple of times. Sorry, everyone.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
I agree with Fishing and CR that mid-term polls hold little value as a guide 2+ years out.
However, Tory MPs will take note of them - saving their own skins and saving the Tory brand in general may do for Johnson rather than the Partygate stuff itself.
Yes, the relationship between Johnson and the Conservative Party has become purely transactional (was it ever anything else?). If many Conservative MPs think (and polls are really the best available indicator) he's got the best shot at leading them to victory, they'll keep him. If they don't, they won't. Sentiment or consideration of any wider interest does not enter into it.
Really Nick? I am sure that is true of many but I would like to think some are principled.
Yes, I phrased it badly. The keyword there is "many". I absolutely think there are also many principled Conservative MPs, and probabhly quite a few who feel conflicted between principle and pragmatism.
I disliked your spin post yesterday Nick stating that because of the money splurge on Thursday Labour lead should drop to 2 points or you will be gobsmacked. I have the opposite opinion - and we both can’t be right or playing it straight - I have Tories entering June Gloom in polling, Thursday as merely what the voters expect from government in such a crisis, nothing special and if anything late response and poorly targeted,. Things I’m watching out for from the coming polls to assess movement amongst the MOE
The biggest lead Opinium have given Labour since the change is 4. The lowest Tory vote share on Opinium since the change, 34.
The last lab Lib green total from yougov recent first - 58, 56, 52, looking for trend for it being bigger than 58; if it breaks 60 milestone it can be spun as 6 out of 10 voters in an anti Tory alliance due to toxic Boris lethal drag on Tory performance
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
A book? Normally opposition leaders go for a column in a national newspaper.
Hmmm unconvinced by a book, most of the electorate will barely pay attention to a list of 10 manifesto promises let alone a book. Perhaps he should given labour's popularity with younger demographics make it a graphic novel.
Just heard a clip of Trump reading out the names of the Uvalde victims at the NRA annual convention in Texas, a single toll of a bell between each name. I’m ashamed to say I’d forgotten the crass cheesiness of which he’s capable.
It’s just a matter of time before these people are demanding that school kids be armed.
I've got it - everyone is homeschooled or taught online, while schools are used as gun storage facilities.
There’s quite a large part of the US right which would like to abolish public schooling.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
It's a power grab at the curriculum. Simple. As I noted earlier. There's a huge shortage of teachers right now. Pay is not competitive. Older hands are quitting. And a huge demographic cohort hitting Secondary age. De-professionalise the job is the way to solve it in this government's eyes. It succeeded in FE. Plus. The Tories just adore Red Tape. As much as possible for other people. I expect we'll see volunteers in the classroom before too long. What could possibly go wrong?
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
BoJo's talent is to project an image successfully. An amateur blundering around, but at heart someone who wants the best for the country. Harold Wilson projected a cuddly image. Margaret Thatcher a competent, functional image.
Sorry but the only image I get of Bozo is someone in it for himself and destroying anyone or anything that would remove him from where he is.
CD13 is correct that Boris has carefully crafted an image, a persona. Where I disagree is that the notion that that Boris includes projecting he wants the best for the country. It isn’t part of it.
Critically Boris projects an image that he is an anti-politics anti-politician. He is there to take down the pomposity of the establishment. His constituency are those who want to see the world burn.
Ironically, he is the very essence of the establishment and pomposity. It’s a potent trick.
But the trick only works until people see through it at which point they are likely to swing the other way and blame anyone associated with Bozo (i.e. their local Tory MP) rather than themselves.
Most new MPs get a boost when they first stand for re-election, as today's poll shows that boost has already disappeared and the economic pain that will be this year hasn't even started yet.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
That pretty much explains my current resistance to becoming a teacher
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Perhaps we could divert all resources for training professionals to the PB Tory's preferred method of educational delivery. Box ticking, assessment by video NVQs, and modern apprenticeships.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/may/13/phage-therapy-fight-against-drug-resistant-infections-antibiotics … The second patient, the 56-year-old man with arthritis, developed a serious skin infection, which is a risk among those on immunosuppressive drugs. He was treated with a single phage, called Muddy, which had been discovered in a sample taken from the underside of a decomposed aubergine. After a few weeks his skin lesions cleared and after two months he tested negative for the bacteria on a biopsy….
"Is there any precedent for help with cost of living crises?"
It's totally new to me. I suppose it must be a younger generation, namby-pamby, mental health issue. Every time inflation goes over 2% , it will be start printing money or we'll be all be bigots.
Sorry, couldn't resist.
Don't know they are born, do they? In the 70s I was living on a small island in a lake of sulphuric acid...
But I don't see how it's working if it's not hurting. The one thing worse than a wage inflation spiral is a wage plus government help for hard working families inflation spiral
Though for most people, it will still hurt an awful lot. Sadly, necessarily so.
(And even the £400 per household is largely recycling the windfall from freezing tax thresholds when inflation is about 10%.)
Yes, if people do get CPI payrises, that fiscal drag will be tremendous.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
The irony being that many school based teacher training schemes are very much cottage industries who can't possibly cope with the bureaucracy associated with re-accreditation. Especially right now.
Given their malice, the incompetence of this government is something of a saving grace.
Oh yes. And the "Provider Relationship Managers" is another favourite solution. An entirely new layer of management created to solve problems which exist only in the minds of those in Whitehall.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Perhaps we could divert all resources for training professionals to the PB Tory's preferred method of educational delivery. Box ticking, assessment by video NVQs, and modern apprenticeships.
Levelling up, or dumbing down?
The preferred higher education policy on PB is for other peoples children not to go to university. How else can standards be maintained?
If 54 letters do go in and in the resulting VOC 184 (say) Tory MPs vote against Johnson one wonders why 130 of them lacked confidence in their leader but didn't bother brandishing their quills.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
That pretty much explains my current resistance to becoming a teacher
I was quite neutral about it at first, but my teacher at school charged me up about it.
A somewhat belated Good Morning everyone. Totally o/t but looks as though our blue-tit chicks are preparing to leave the nest-box. Sometimes all out of the nest itself and clustering round one of the exits. Looks like they need a few more feathers, though. Looks as though the parents will rear 6 from 8 eggs.
A somewhat belated Good Morning everyone. Totally o/t but looks as though our blue-tit chicks are preparing to leave the nest-box. Sometimes all out of the nest itself and clustering round one of the exits. Looks like they need a few more feathers, though. Looks as though the parents will rear 6 from 8 eggs.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
A guy who was recently working for me has taken a job as a labourer with a contractor at Tata Steel, starting salary £29k plus overtime. It's a horrible job he has been allocated, the back- breaking shovelling up of spilled coke being delivered to the coke ovens in roasting temperatures.
There is a certain irony that wealthy MPs spend fortunes on a expensive education for their children, yet advise the hoi poloi not to bother because they can earn more shovelling coke than they can educating the nation. How then do the children of MPs invest their educational qualifications? There may be no money in coal-face education, but I suspect management roles in Academy schools are worth a punt with the right network connections.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
A guy who was recently working for me has taken a job as a labourer with a contractor at Tata Steel, starting salary £29k plus overtime. It's a horrible job he has been allocated, the back- breaking shovelling up of spilled coke being delivered to the coke ovens in roasting temperatures.
There is a certain irony that wealthy MPs spend fortunes on a expensive education for their children, yet advise the hoi poloi not to bother because they can earn more shovelling coke than they can educating the nation. How then do the children of MPs invest their educational qualifications? There may be no money in coal-face education, but I suspect management roles in Academy schools are worth a punt with the right network connections.
There’s a joke in there somewhere, about MPs shovelling coke…
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
A guy who was recently working for me has taken a job as a labourer with a contractor at Tata Steel, starting salary £29k plus overtime. It's a horrible job he has been allocated, the back- breaking shovelling up of spilled coke being delivered to the coke ovens in roasting temperatures.
There is a certain irony that wealthy MPs spend fortunes on a expensive education for their children, yet advise the hoi poloi not to bother because they can earn more shovelling coke than they can educating the nation. How then do the children of MPs invest their educational qualifications? There may be no money in coal-face education, but I suspect management roles in Academy schools are worth a punt with the right network connections.
There’s a joke in there somewhere, about MPs shovelling coke…
A few more of you big brains have arisen from slumber so - cummon - can I have responses to my post early this morning:
If (as pigeon posits) the LP win most seats but are reliant on support from both the LDs and SNP, which of these scenarios would play out?:
1) LDs and SNP agree to go into formal coalition with the LP
or
2) LDs ands SNP would only support the LP with no formal coalition
Or would LDs opt for one and the SNP the other.
Bear in mind that only formal coalition would result in LD and SNP cabinet ministers.
3) Labour rules as a minority government. Refuses to offer a Coalition. It introduces things the SNP like. A referendum in 4 years time. And things the LD's like. PR for Councils and possibly HoL? The latter would be a multi year project. And nowt else radical. They are able to command a solid majority in practice. Meanwhile. The Conservative Party has to confront its ideological incoherence and has a difficult debate about what the heck it is for. Then Labour goes to the country after two years. It's the Wilson playbook. They need to win first of course. And a lot depends on the numbers of course.
This is only possible if LP wins most seats (but no majority).
What if CP win most seats but no majority and the only majority that can be found is LP/LD/SNP?
Is it? It's perfectly possible to rule as the second largest Party provided you can pass a Queen's Speech. Although the media and Tories would kick up a stink.
Surely in that scenario it would be the CP which runs as a minority government? I know that would be short-lived.
No. Because unless they had the numbers with the DUP they'd be unlikely to pass a Queen's Speech. That's what makes you the government. Not a headcount or popular vote count.
Right, but if LP have the numbers with LD/SNP, as Tories did with DUP, then aren't you going with 2) above? Isn't your number 3) the same as my number 2)?
Yes. I guess so. The difference being, Labour doesn't offer the option of Coalition under my scenario. They have no constitutional need to. Nor any political imperative. A Queen's Speech with an Indyref some years in the future, and some kind of move towards PR wouldn't be voted down.
Ok, so that narrows down the particular post-election government flavour to three feasible possibilities:
Lab Minority (2.36) Con Majority (3.3) Lab and LD Coalition (12.5)
I have discounted SNP in coalition (posters below), Con Minority (as CP has no friends) and Lab Majority (maths, not going to happen).
Smarket odds on the three feasibles are above in brackets (Smarkets). I'm keeping an eye on this market. Not particularly backable at the moment with a book percentage of 140% and the back side and 75% on the lay side.
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
It's a power grab at the curriculum. Simple. As I noted earlier. There's a huge shortage of teachers right now. Pay is not competitive. Older hands are quitting. And a huge demographic cohort hitting Secondary age. De-professionalise the job is the way to solve it in this government's eyes. It succeeded in FE. Plus. The Tories just adore Red Tape. As much as possible for other people. I expect we'll see volunteers in the classroom before too long. What could possibly go wrong?
Tories don't give a shit about state education because most of them don't use it. My solution is simple: no cabinet minister or senior civil servant can send their child to private school. You would be amazed at how quickly the situation would improve.
Was that a second hint? Edit: just realised the different photo! Duh.
We are looking for a Christian country (see the church) with a river and a steep hill (earlier photo) that is trying to revitalise its tourist industry post-Covid. Is it North Wales?
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
A guy who was recently working for me has taken a job as a labourer with a contractor at Tata Steel, starting salary £29k plus overtime. It's a horrible job he has been allocated, the back- breaking shovelling up of spilled coke being delivered to the coke ovens in roasting temperatures.
There is a certain irony that wealthy MPs spend fortunes on a expensive education for their children, yet advise the hoi poloi not to bother because they can earn more shovelling coke than they can educating the nation. How then do the children of MPs invest their educational qualifications? There may be no money in coal-face education, but I suspect management roles in Academy schools are worth a punt with the right network connections.
There’s a joke in there somewhere, about MPs shovelling coke…
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
It's a power grab at the curriculum. Simple. As I noted earlier. There's a huge shortage of teachers right now. Pay is not competitive. Older hands are quitting. And a huge demographic cohort hitting Secondary age. De-professionalise the job is the way to solve it in this government's eyes. It succeeded in FE. Plus. The Tories just adore Red Tape. As much as possible for other people. I expect we'll see volunteers in the classroom before too long. What could possibly go wrong?
Tories don't give a shit about state education because most of them don't use it. My solution is simple: no cabinet minister or senior civil servant can send their child to private school. You would be amazed at how quickly the situation would improve.
Actually the majority of Tory MPs now went to state school. However the Tories also believe in choice, including private education
I’m not sure I’ve been to a more immediately appealing city
I mean, I’m sure there are horrible bits. And the traffic is heavy. And the centre is touristy. But it is extremely pretty and tumbledown yet chic and very cheap and there are excellent wine bars everywhere
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
The average full time equivalent salary for teachers is £40k, compared to the UK average salary of £31k
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
The average full time equivalent salary for teachers is £40k, compared to the UK average salary of £31k
Steve Brine (Winchester) has submitted his letter to Sir Graham.
Excellent. I hope that Tory MPs are starting to notice that in the post Boris world, it’s not going to be good to be one of those that did nothing.
63% of Conservative voters do not want Boris to resign, there is no guarantee a majority of Conservative MPs will think differently even if there is a VONC vote
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
The average full time equivalent salary for teachers is £40k, compared to the UK average salary of £31k
So what? If you want to attract experienced professionals to Physics teachers you need to pay more than 24k minus fees. Anyway, £40k is not a lot compared to what they have to do. Teachers are professionals equivalent to lawyers and doctors.
Steve Brine (Winchester) has submitted his letter to Sir Graham.
Excellent. I hope that Tory MPs are starting to notice that in the post Boris world, it’s not going to be good to be one of those that did nothing.
63% of Conservative voters do not want Boris to resign, there is no guarantee a majority of Conservative MPs will think differently even if there is a VONC vote
You miss the point. If there is a new regime, there will want to be a clean break. Those MPs that stood up for standards will prosper, those that sat on their hands will be saying they didn’t like it, but….
This looks like a case of Marxism Derangement Syndrome. Does anyone have any deeper insight as to why so many "outstanding" teacher training courses are failing the new accreditation scheme?
Because although they are the most effective way of training teachers they're also expensive. So the government wants to replace them with on the job training in schools instead which is (a) considerably cheaper and (b) for all their bleatings, masks the fact that rather a lot of vacancies are proving difficult to fill at the moment.
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
I am always curious about teaching Physics, but stories of paperwork, low pay, cheap babysitting and riot control do tend to put you off sharing the wonders of Ohm’s law.
There's plenty of Brownian, well, brown motion involved in teaching right now.
More so than usual? Teachers have always had a raw deal.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
The average full time equivalent salary for teachers is £40k, compared to the UK average salary of £31k
So what? If you want to attract experienced professionals to Physics teachers you need to pay more than 24k minus fees. Anyway, £40k is not a lot compared to what they have to do. Teachers are professionals equivalent to lawyers and doctors.
The average lawyer and doctor went to a Russell Group university, the average state school teacher did not unless they teach in a top private school or grammar school or absolutely top comprehensive or academy or free school.
Alternatively you could have performance related pay so the teachers who could the best exam results in the school get the most and bonuses and the teachers who get the worst results get a pay cut
Steve Brine (Winchester) has submitted his letter to Sir Graham.
Excellent. I hope that Tory MPs are starting to notice that in the post Boris world, it’s not going to be good to be one of those that did nothing.
63% of Conservative voters do not want Boris to resign, there is no guarantee a majority of Conservative MPs will think differently even if there is a VONC vote
O/T Looking at the 3 marginals of Dudley N, Bassetlaw and Ashfield that the Conservatives are supposed not to win, they all have rather specific circumstances which it would be impossible to adequately model in any general MRP poll. i.e. - In one the former MP told his supporters to vote Conservative - In another the Brexit supporting former MP was nominated to the Lords by Theresa May sitting as an independent, while Corbyn's far left NEC contrived to deselect the new Labour candidate two weeks after the local party selected her - In the third, Labour went from 1st to 3rd, the Ashfield Independents gaining 27%, and with the new Conservative MP having defected as a Labour councillor the year before and having been the office manager of the former Labour MP.
5 years on I don't think these factors would be anything like as potent and I would expect a larger swing back to be expected. As the MRP methodology won't have picked such unique circumstances up, all 3 seats could yet fall to Labour too.
Comments
No way is Johnson going if they procrastinate long enough for there to be a chance of economic recovery.
If they don’t boot him now, they are toast.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/5b1dc8ee-ddef-11ec-bcbd-e35b52e0266c?shareToken=a8f16201e863c26a2f203a159c909768
(And even the £400 per household is largely recycling the windfall from freezing tax thresholds when inflation is about 10%.)
A fish's abdomen
To be be fair, there’s at least 25 of the current crop of Tory MPs with a sense of decency and backbone to voice it.
Anyway, I don’t want to see anything typed in capital letters or capital numbers this morning, I have a terrible hangover.
I won't believe a spad won't be the one who actually pulls it together though.
Critically Boris projects an image that he is an anti-politics anti-politician. He is there to take down the pomposity of the establishment. His constituency are those who want to see the world burn.
Ironically, he is the very essence of the establishment and pomposity. It’s a potent trick.
Perhaps Jessica in The Merchant of Venice, although of course she was the daughter rather than the wife of Shylock.
If this is what you're saying then shouldn't he try his talents at something where they are appreciated?
The Boris facade is that he isn't a politician, and he wants the best for the country.
The Boris reality is that he has all the vices of politicians but none of the virtues... That takes a while to realise. But everyone gets there in the end.
Reader, I voted for him a couple of times. Sorry, everyone.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2022/may/28/government-pushing-universities-out-of-teacher-training-over-leftwing-politics-say-leaders
The biggest lead Opinium have given Labour since the change is 4.
The lowest Tory vote share on Opinium since the change, 34.
The last lab Lib green total from yougov recent first - 58, 56, 52, looking for trend for it being bigger than 58; if it breaks 60 milestone it can be spun as 6 out of 10 voters in an anti Tory alliance due to toxic Boris lethal drag on Tory performance
It's the same reason they're grading all schools designed to help those with really complex SEND as 4 so they get closed and the pupils transferred to mainstream schools.
Which is, to reduce it to its essentials, why I literally had to get a child off the roof yesterday afternoon.
We have been waiting years for BigDog's next opus volumes sadly he is going to be far to busy to conclude them for decades to come.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10862591/Piers-Morgan-month-Talk-TV-show.html
As I noted earlier. There's a huge shortage of teachers right now. Pay is not competitive. Older hands are quitting. And a huge demographic cohort hitting Secondary age.
De-professionalise the job is the way to solve it in this government's eyes. It succeeded in FE.
Plus. The Tories just adore Red Tape. As much as possible for other people. I expect we'll see volunteers in the classroom before too long.
What could possibly go wrong?
Most new MPs get a boost when they first stand for re-election, as today's poll shows that boost has already disappeared and the economic pain that will be this year hasn't even started yet.
While I applaud the effort to jinx him, I’m not convinced it will work.
The pay is criminally low compared to the impact, responsibility and qualifications required. 24k to teach Physics, doesn’t look quite so generous when you have to pay 9k fees.
Levelling up, or dumbing down?
https://schoolsweek.co.uk/just-1-in-3-teacher-trainers-re-accredited-after-first-review-round/
Basically, the government created another hooplah for teacher trainers to jump through without thinking about practicalities.
The wider problem is that if teacher retention were better, recruitment and training wouldn't be needed so much.
Unions calling strikes is bad, but the free market solution- staff just leave- is even harder to manage.
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2022/may/13/phage-therapy-fight-against-drug-resistant-infections-antibiotics
… The second patient, the 56-year-old man with arthritis, developed a serious skin infection, which is a risk among those on immunosuppressive drugs. He was treated with a single phage, called Muddy, which had been discovered in a sample taken from the underside of a decomposed aubergine. After a few weeks his skin lesions cleared and after two months he tested negative for the bacteria on a biopsy….
Given their malice, the incompetence of this government is something of a saving grace.
An entirely new layer of management created to solve problems which exist only in the minds of those in Whitehall.
Where am I?
Hint: it’s ridiculously picturesque and pleasant
Totally o/t but looks as though our blue-tit chicks are preparing to leave the nest-box. Sometimes all out of the nest itself and clustering round one of the exits.
Looks like they need a few more feathers, though. Looks as though the parents will rear 6 from 8 eggs.
He needs to distill it down to pledge cards. Somewhere in a drawer I have a 1997 one signed and given to me by Prescott himself.
There is a certain irony that wealthy MPs spend fortunes on a expensive education for their children, yet advise the hoi poloi not to bother because they can earn more shovelling coke than they can educating the nation. How then do the children of MPs invest their educational qualifications? There may be no money in coal-face education, but I suspect management roles in Academy schools are worth a punt with the right network connections.
As an aside, I am shocked that patriot monarchist @Leon is planning to be out of the country for Her Maj's big celebration. He's no true patriot!
Lab Minority (2.36)
Con Majority (3.3)
Lab and LD Coalition (12.5)
I have discounted SNP in coalition (posters below), Con Minority (as CP has no friends) and Lab Majority (maths, not going to happen).
Smarket odds on the three feasibles are above in brackets (Smarkets). I'm keeping an eye on this market. Not particularly backable at the moment with a book percentage of 140% and the back side and 75% on the lay side.
There’s a lot of UKRAINE flags
Plus you can see their insane script here
@TomLarkinSky
·
1h
In a statement on his personal website - https://stevebrine.com/news/statement-after-sue-gray-report-published.
Which actually went up on WEDNESDAY but seemingly entirely unnoticed.
https://twitter.com/TomLarkinSky
Sans souci?
I’m not sure I’ve been to a more immediately appealing city
I mean, I’m sure there are horrible bits. And the traffic is heavy. And the centre is touristy. But it is extremely pretty and tumbledown yet chic and very cheap and there are excellent wine bars everywhere
👍👍
https://www.politics.co.uk/reference/teachers-pay/
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1529453755447627777?s=20&t=sY7sKq-V02zMMBPViMS30Q
It’s also absurdly easy to get in. Show your vax status - takes 30 seconds - no visa required. Nothing. You’re in. And you can stay for a year
Leon was enfeoffed.
Alternatively you could have performance related pay so the teachers who could the best exam results in the school get the most and bonuses and the teachers who get the worst results get a pay cut
Looking at the 3 marginals of Dudley N, Bassetlaw and Ashfield that the Conservatives are supposed not to win, they all have rather specific circumstances which it would be impossible to adequately model in any general MRP poll.
i.e.
- In one the former MP told his supporters to vote Conservative
- In another the Brexit supporting former MP was nominated to the Lords by Theresa May sitting as an independent, while Corbyn's far left NEC contrived to deselect the new Labour candidate two weeks after the local party selected her
- In the third, Labour went from 1st to 3rd, the Ashfield Independents gaining 27%, and with the new Conservative MP having defected as a Labour councillor the year before and having been the office manager of the former Labour MP.
5 years on I don't think these factors would be anything like as potent and I would expect a larger swing back to be expected. As the MRP methodology won't have picked such unique circumstances up, all 3 seats could yet fall to Labour too.