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Punters think Johnson will survive the by-elections – politicalbetting.com

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188

    Anyone who attended football in the 80s and 90s as I did and still goes will recognise the vastly changed landscape at football. It is nothing like the violent, racist sewer it used to be. However there are still sadly some absolute bell ends out there who are responsible for the incidents we see. It's telling that football fans, uniquely in sport, are still segregated.
    The awful scenes at Wembley last year show that while mostly football is in a better place, the nasty elements are still there.
    But I'd say they reflect society. Until society grows up fully football, the national game, will still have it's idiots
    Pre COVID, I went to see a Harlequins vs Saracens game. Harlequins got pounded into the ground. We were drinking in a private bar in the ground after the game (a friend had got some moderately good tickets though work). The bar was about 90% Harlequins fans. The Saracens team came in for a visit and started signing kit etc. One lucky boy got his Harlequins shirt signed by the entire Saracens team.

    I remember thinking at the time, that if all of that had happened at a football match, the result would have made world news. And not in a good way.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
     
    Sandpit said:

    The BoE have a remit to control inflation, and precisely one lever available to them.

    The problem they have, is that the inflation is almost all imported, caused by commodity prices and a supply chain crunch, and the products with the highest inflation (fuels) are subject to low price elacticity of demand. That is that demand doesn’t fall by much, as the price rises.

    As such, interest rate rises won’t do much in the short term to reduce inflation, which is why the BoE are trying to dampen demand by urging pay restraint. But there’s full employment, and an unprecedented number of people are able to find a better job right now - especially at the lower end of the market.
    Going a bit deeper, the external shocks imply that real income in the UK has to fall. The question for the BoE is how to manage this. As you point out, interest rates only operate on the demand side, and their effects are not immediate. If real wages are to fall - and they must - then nominal wages have to rise at a slower pace than price inflation. The brunt has to fall on fiscal measures, and they must not accommodate the incipient inflation. On the revenue side of the budget, the govt could leave tax thresholds unchanged so that fiscal drag pulls real wages down as the inflation proceeds. However it would be counterproductive to the need for falling real wages to reduce VAT, so popular demand for VAT reductions to attenuate inflation should be resisted. This is painful for people and politicians. The CotE who carries out the necessary policies will not be popular.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188
    Carnyx said:

    IIRC a precedent was set by the Great Escape tunnel (Oflag IVC?) or Colditz. Or indeed almost any mine since the Germans in the middle ages.
    Isn't there some evidence that Roman mines had trackways to keep wheeled carts centred in the tunnels? Either that or worn ruts....
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,589

    There is, I think, an issue with organisations that did not have a sensible system of metrics to monitor what s actually being done.

    I work in IT software development. Currently using Agile methodology. A basic idea in Agile, is that work is broken down into small bits. The amount of time for each bit to be done is estimated by the team (as a group). So, there is irate tracking of who has done what. Remote/distributed team working was part of the idea behind Agile. So it is a naturally good fit for WFH.

    In many places (private and government) there is no such intrinsic measure of what is actually being done. Instead they have relied on mangers prodding the herd from time to time. The tales we have heard over the last few days, of people with a days work that can be done in an hour, are not that rare.

    Certainly where I work (DWP) we are measured on inputs, not outputs. You would have thought the number of people we get into work - or who declare increased earnings - would be a key metric. Not at all. Its about how many minutes we spend talking to people, how many programmes we put them on, etc.

    I accept I need to be in the office some of the time. I could easily organise my time so I could work 2-3 days from home. But I am not allowed to. Annoyingly, of course, those managers telling us we have to go into the office fulfill their own criteria for people allowed to work flexibly.

    As it happens, the office is only 4 miles away and I was beginning to struggle with motivation working from home, so I'm fairly content, but it would be nice to have the odd day working from home from time to time.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,797

    I've heard some daft excuses for bad behaviour but that beats the lot.
    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    MaxPB said:

    They have it within their power to put up interest rates. Maybe they should do that instead of pleading to workers to accept their failure to control inflation without a pay rise. It's the BoE that has failed.
    Higher interest rates are just going to pile more wage inflation pressure on, given mortgages and rents will rise.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Cookie said:

    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
    The message is "we all stand united against any form of discrimination".

    Not sure why you hear "the crowd are all racist".
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145
    geoffw said:

     

    Going a bit deeper, the external shocks imply that real income in the UK has to fall. The question for the BoE is how to manage this. As you point out, interest rates only operate on the demand side, and their effects are not immediate. If real wages are to fall - and they must - then nominal wages have to rise at a slower pace than price inflation. The brunt has to fall on fiscal measures, and they must not accommodate the incipient inflation. On the revenue side of the budget, the govt could leave tax thresholds unchanged so that fiscal drag pulls real wages down as the inflation proceeds. However it would be counterproductive to the need for falling real wages to reduce VAT, so popular demand for VAT reductions to attenuate inflation should be resisted. This is painful for people and politicians. The CotE who carries out the necessary policies will not be popular.

    Or we could just wait.

    Wait for the war to end so that both Ukraine and Russia can resume exports of wheat and other soft and hard commodities. Wait for China to find a better way to manage Covid so that supply chains can recover.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,771

    Isn't there some evidence that Roman mines had trackways to keep wheeled carts centred in the tunnels? Either that or worn ruts....
    There is certainly evidence of ruts going back to the Bronze age (and evidence of local "standard gauges" of cart wheels - presumably just the jigs etc the local bloke who built carts used, and then passed on down from generation to generation. You will struggle to google for good content on this subject because "cart ruts" has been overtaken by the "ancient hi-tech civilisation and maybe aliens" loonies.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188

    Certainly where I work (DWP) we are measured on inputs, not outputs. You would have thought the number of people we get into work - or who declare increased earnings - would be a key metric. Not at all. Its about how many minutes we spend talking to people, how many programmes we put them on, etc.

    I accept I need to be in the office some of the time. I could easily organise my time so I could work 2-3 days from home. But I am not allowed to. Annoyingly, of course, those managers telling us we have to go into the office fulfill their own criteria for people allowed to work flexibly.

    As it happens, the office is only 4 miles away and I was beginning to struggle with motivation working from home, so I'm fairly content, but it would be nice to have the odd day working from home from time to time.
    It is noticeable that customer facing organisation that get a good reputation measure output - customers successfully dealt with.

    Way back, Amazon became famous for their tree diagrams - with no leaf leaving a customer just hanging. Some kind of resolution for everything, and with a time scale for 95% of cases.

    Nothing like a manager who tells you "No, not for you. Just for me", is there?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    Cookie said:

    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
    Nobody says 'your all a bunch of racists' at the start of a football match.

    I happen to agree that these public exortations are over-done and risk becoming a bit soviet-like ('see it, say it, sorted' is a prime example). But they do not cause bad behaviour.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,295
    IshmaelZ said:

    Guessing irate tracking is an autocorrect
    ..depends on whether the Agile team are making good enough progress?
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited May 2022

    What we're likely to have is a wealth transfer from consumers and owners to workers.

    For nearly two decades the transfer has been going from workers to consumers and owners.

    This will be a good thing as it also means a wealth transfer from the old to the young.
    Precisely, it is a good thing. It will also mean a wealth transfer from rentiers to workers.

    Its funny how people identify so many problems with the British economy (the young and poor struggling, the lack of productivity) but when the market is doing its thing and the invisible hand is trying to fix those problems suddenly people object.

    If we have full employment and wages rise then the least productive businesses will have to go out of business. That's a shame for them, but it also will raise our productivity and living standards.

    If that means some of us need to spend less time on online discussion forums or other unproductive stuff, that might not be the worst thing in the world.
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,002
    At our local Mayor making last night - interesting aside was that the local Conservatives are having difficulty finding candidates for the council (it is really just a parish council) - with many of the existing ones not standing next year. Is being known as a Conservative less of a positive attribute these days?

  • Cookie said:

    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
    Nobody is telling anyone that.

    By your own logic, tell people that we all stand (or kneel) together against racism often enough and we'll all unite against racism. So lets keep doing what we're doing.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Or we could just wait.

    Wait for the war to end so that both Ukraine and Russia can resume exports of wheat and other soft and hard commodities. Wait for China to find a better way to manage Covid so that supply chains can recover.
    Just waiting seems to imply not reacting to rising prices and falling real wages. I agree, and that is the gist of my point, though it may need careful steering. The thing is, this blip in prices must not be allowed to propagate and amplify further.

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188
    mwadams said:

    There is certainly evidence of ruts going back to the Bronze age (and evidence of local "standard gauges" of cart wheels - presumably just the jigs etc the local bloke who built carts used, and then passed on down from generation to generation. You will struggle to google for good content on this subject because "cart ruts" has been overtaken by the "ancient hi-tech civilisation and maybe aliens" loonies.
    The question is how deliberate the ruts were - were they an annoyance to get fixed, a hoped for outcome that was actually used, or an encouraged and deliberate thing?

    One thing to think on is that once such ruts were a thing, a cart with wheels at a different spacing would be very, very difficult to use on the same road.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    I expect Sunak will do something over the next few weeks in good time before the by-elections.

    The windfall tax really should have been a no brainer but because the opposition called for it they’ll avoid that for as long as possible .

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,092
    Liz Truss suggests Tory response to cost of living crisis should be tax cuts, not windfall levy on energy firms – UK politics live https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/may/18/pmqs-boris-johnson-cost-of-living-brexit-northern-ireland-tax-windfall-latest-updates?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Cookie said:

    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
    Not all of them, of course, but enough.

    Also, it just breeds resentment - there's definitely a feeling there that They (players, clubs, media etc) are insulting the fans' intelligence - fans can remember back to summer 2020 when They jumped on the BLM bandwagon and the kneeling was part of that - so it doesn't wash when They tell us that now it's purely a general anti-racist message, nothing to do with the BLM campaign at all, and if you don't think the players should be doing for whatever reason you're a racist.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,635


    In the exact same way as I say if Northern Ireland votes for reunification with the Republic of Ireland but HYUFD's proposed Antrim terrorists say "we stay in Britain or we blow up buildings" then the right thing to do is proceed with reunification of Ireland and arrest the terrorists.

    At the 2011 Census, County Down* was actually more Protestant than Antrim*!

    * strictly speaking the Wards in aggregate making up what used to County Down and County Antrim.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    Icarus said:

    At our local Mayor making last night - interesting aside was that the local Conservatives are having difficulty finding candidates for the council (it is really just a parish council) - with many of the existing ones not standing next year. Is being known as a Conservative less of a positive attribute these days?

    I find it bizarre to have Party labels at Parish level.
    My old one banned members of political Parties. Though did insist on a public declaration of how you voted.
    There really is no need for it tbh
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    edited May 2022
    kjh said:

    It is not just Russia. This was happening before the war. Coming out of COVID was a big impact as it takes time for supply to gear up eg the delivery driver shortage, computer chips, etc. And of course the self inflicted Brexit adding to supply costs with red tape and tarrifs.
    The Netherlands and Greece have a higher inflation rate than the UK now, so it is certainly not just Brexit either

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1526817929563619329?s=20&t=w77bD2a_cVqdB0x68ZprAA
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The message is "we all stand united against any form of discrimination".

    Not sure why you hear "the crowd are all racist".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55151065
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Nobody is telling anyone that.

    By your own logic, tell people that we all stand (or kneel) together against racism often enough and we'll all unite against racism. So lets keep doing what we're doing.
    But it isn't about that - it has always been about explicit support for one particular dubious political campaign, no matter how much they try to gaslight us now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55151065
  • IcarusIcarus Posts: 1,002

    The question is how deliberate the ruts were - were they an annoyance to get fixed, a hoped for outcome that was actually used, or an encouraged and deliberate thing?

    One thing to think on is that once such ruts were a thing, a cart with wheels at a different spacing would be very, very difficult to use on the same road.
    The Romans had pedestrian crossings -stepping stones - in the streets with the stones set so that the cart wheels could get through
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010
    dixiedean said:

    I find it bizarre to have Party labels at Parish level.
    My old one banned members of political Parties. Though did insist on a public declaration of how you voted.
    There really is no need for it tbh
    Most village parish councils do not have party labels and candidates stand as Independents.

    It only tends to be town councils where the political parties stand candidates
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    nico679 said:

    I expect Sunak will do something over the next few weeks in good time before the by-elections.

    The windfall tax really should have been a no brainer but because the opposition called for it they’ll avoid that for as long as possible .

    The question maybe is that Rishi has played the windfall tax better than labour, as they would have spent it by now and have an empty locker facing the Autumn energy crisis
  • Applicant said:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55151065
    Exactly. What Harry Kane said was 100% correct and did not include the words "the crowd are all racist".

    Saying we stand together against racism is a completely appropriate thing for the players to do and if the small minority who get a kick from racially abusing people don't like it, then they need to realise that they're the problem and that everyone else is united against them and doesn't think it is just acceptable banter.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,320
    Cookie said:

    No, I'm with Applicant here. Tell people they're racist often enough and that's what they'll become.
    I must say letting people off with taking personal responsibility for their failings is not usually a view expressed by the right on PB.
  • Applicant said:

    But it isn't about that - it has always been about explicit support for one particular dubious political campaign, no matter how much they try to gaslight us now: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/55151065
    Standing against racism is not a dubious campaign. 🤦‍♂️
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    geoffw said:

     

    Going a bit deeper, the external shocks imply that real income in the UK has to fall. The question for the BoE is how to manage this. As you point out, interest rates only operate on the demand side, and their effects are not immediate. If real wages are to fall - and they must - then nominal wages have to rise at a slower pace than price inflation. The brunt has to fall on fiscal measures, and they must not accommodate the incipient inflation. On the revenue side of the budget, the govt could leave tax thresholds unchanged so that fiscal drag pulls real wages down as the inflation proceeds. However it would be counterproductive to the need for falling real wages to reduce VAT, so popular demand for VAT reductions to attenuate inflation should be resisted. This is painful for people and politicians. The CotE who carries out the necessary policies will not be popular.
    This is a point worth emphasising. It's inevitable that the supply shock on fossil fuels will make the country as a whole poorer. The only question is then how that diminution in living standards is distributed.

    I am not receiving a "we're all in this together" vibe from HMG.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Exactly. What Harry Kane said was 100% correct and did not include the words "the crowd are all racist".

    Saying we stand together against racism is a completely appropriate thing for the players to do and if the small minority who get a kick from racially abusing people don't like it, then they need to realise that they're the problem and that everyone else is united against them and doesn't think it is just acceptable banter.
    Calling people who object to support for a dubious political campaign racist gets seen as calling people racist, for some reason.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,493
    HYUFD said:

    The Netherlands and Greece have a higher inflation rate than the UK now, so it is certainly not just Brexit either

    https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1526817929563619329?s=20&t=w77bD2a_cVqdB0x68ZprAA
    2 out of 27?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    HYUFD said:

    Most village parish councils do not have party labels and candidates stand as Independents.

    It only tends to be town councils where the political parties stand candidates
    Sensible.
    Particularly as I have some experience of how much the Parish Council can feud and factionalise on its own initiative without the aid of Party labels.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Standing against racism is not a dubious campaign. 🤦‍♂️
    Standing against racism would not be a dubious political campaign.

    Kneeling in support for the BLM campaign, as they've been doing since summer 2020, is.

    If they wanted to make a gesture against racism and not in support of the BLM campaign, that ios what they would do.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,493

    2 out of 27?
    Sorry, 4 out of 27, my bad.
  • Applicant said:

    Calling people who object to support for a dubious political campaign racist gets seen as calling people racist, for some reason.
    Standing against racism is not a dubious political campaign, as much as you seem to want to make it one by jumping on two year old quotations of people standing against racism.

    Please tell me what words Harry Kane used which are a dubious political campaign? These are the words he used that you find offensive, I'm not seeing any dubious politics in any of it, so please enlighten me as to what you object to.

    "I hear people ask if we should still be doing it and we should," said the Tottenham striker, 27.

    "What people don't realise is sometimes we are watched by millions of people round the world. Of course, for the person who watches the Premier League every week, they see the same thing every week.

    "But I think if you look around the world you see children watching the game for the first time, seeing us all take a knee and asking their parents and asking why we take the knee.

    "It's a great chance for people to explain why and get their point across. Education is the biggest thing we can do. Adults can teach generations what it means, and what it means to be together and help each other no matter what your race."


    "It means to be together and help each other no matter what your race" - I'm struggling to find anything dubious in that or any way it involves telling people they're all racist.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    Nicola Sturgeon argues Ukraine crisis makes case for Scottish independence 'more important'...

    Sigh.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-argues-ukraine-crisis-26991707
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,275
    When I heard about the Mexican drug tunnel I was sure the same story happened about ten years ago. Now I think I might have actually remembered a plotline in the TV show Weeds..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,537

    Exactly. What Harry Kane said was 100% correct and did not include the words "the crowd are all racist".

    Saying we stand together against racism is a completely appropriate thing for the players to do and if the small minority who get a kick from racially abusing people don't like it, then they need to realise that they're the problem and that everyone else is united against them and doesn't think it is just acceptable banter.
    High profile players leaving social media until proper measures to prevent sharing racism online are put in place - might that achieve far more than a gesture that now just goes through the motions before each game?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188

    2 out of 27?
    https://www.statista.com/statistics/225698/monthly-inflation-rate-in-eu-countries/

  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    The question maybe is that Rishi has played the windfall tax better than labour, as they would have spent it by now and have an empty locker facing the Autumn energy crisis
    I disagree . The refusal to put in the windfall tax is an own goal and looks very bad in the eyes of the public . There already is an empty locker so borrowing will have to go up regardless to help mitigate the cost of living crisis .

    The Tories will just face “ too little too late “ accusations once they do act .
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 23,415
    edited May 2022
    Applicant said:

    Standing against racism would not be a dubious political campaign.

    Kneeling in support for the BLM campaign, as they've been doing since summer 2020, is.

    If they wanted to make a gesture against racism and not in support of the BLM campaign, that ios what they would do.
    The BLM campaign to 99.99% of people who heard and used the words just means that black lives matter and does not mean anything dubious whatsoever.

    When people objected to dubious politics a few eccentric individuals had that were being used by those words then they stopped using the words BLM and started using their own words which they use today like "Kick It Out" or "United Against Racism" so what is dubious about that? The fact they've stopped saying BLM should be the end of the matter, unless you find United Against Racism to be dubious?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,092
    Who would come off worse in a 🇬🇧/🇪🇺 trade war?

    Con voters
    UK - 27%
    EU - 20%
    Both - 40%

    Lab voters
    UK - 76%
    EU - 3%
    Both - 11%

    Leave voters
    UK - 25%
    EU - 21%
    Both - 36%

    Remain voters
    UK - 76%
    EU - 3%
    Both - 14%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/05/18/britons-tend-think-uk-would-come-out-worse-trade-w https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1526842823328382976/photo/1
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    There is, I think, an issue with organisations that did not have a sensible system of metrics to monitor what s actually being done.

    I work in IT software development. Currently using Agile methodology. A basic idea in Agile, is that work is broken down into small bits. The amount of time for each bit to be done is estimated by the team (as a group). So, there is irate tracking of who has done what. Remote/distributed team working was part of the idea behind Agile. So it is a naturally good fit for WFH.

    In many places (private and government) there is no such intrinsic measure of what is actually being done. Instead they have relied on mangers prodding the herd from time to time. The tales we have heard over the last few days, of people with a days work that can be done in an hour, are not that rare.

    In a lot of jobs the amount of time it takes you to do a task is related to the amount of time you have to do it in. I don't think WFH is much of a factor here. Middle managers hate WFH because it makes it harder to fill people's days with pointless meetings that exist solely to justify the manager's existence.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    2 out of 27?
    Czech Republic and Poland too
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
    A straw in the job market wind.
    The NHS is having an Open Day at Blyth job centre on Monday in an attempt to entice workers.
  • High profile players leaving social media until proper measures to prevent sharing racism online are put in place - might that achieve far more than a gesture that now just goes through the motions before each game?
    I very much doubt it.

    The gesture is still getting people talking about it so it works.

    People who leave social media just silence their own voice and social media moves on without them.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513

    This is a point worth emphasising. It's inevitable that the supply shock on fossil fuels will make the country as a whole poorer. The only question is then how that diminution in living standards is distributed.

    I am not receiving a "we're all in this together" vibe from HMG.
    Because it wouldn't be true and everyone knows it wouldn't be true.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    edited May 2022

    Standing against racism is not a dubious political campaign, as much as you seem to want to make it one by jumping on two year old quotations of people standing against racism.

    Please tell me what words Harry Kane used which are a dubious political campaign? These are the words he used that you find offensive, I'm not seeing any dubious politics in any of it, so please enlighten me as to what you object to.

    "I hear people ask if we should still be doing it and we should," said the Tottenham striker, 27.

    "What people don't realise is sometimes we are watched by millions of people round the world. Of course, for the person who watches the Premier League every week, they see the same thing every week.

    "But I think if you look around the world you see children watching the game for the first time, seeing us all take a knee and asking their parents and asking why we take the knee.

    "It's a great chance for people to explain why and get their point across. Education is the biggest thing we can do. Adults can teach generations what it means, and what it means to be together and help each other no matter what your race."


    "It means to be together and help each other no matter what your race" - I'm struggling to find anything dubious in that or any way it involves telling people they're all racist.
    The Bring back the 1950s brigade might win a few more elections with their nonsense, but they know that they will lose the future heart and soul of the country.

    10 year olds forming opinions today are not going to listen to the Daily Mail or Piers Morgan, but the likes of Harry Kane, Jordan Henderson and Raheem Sterling.

    The around the world bit is also important given in lots of authoritarian countries like China and Russia is hard to get anti discrimination messages through, and football is absolutely one of the best ways of spreading our now English values of no discrimination globally.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Scott_xP said:

    Who would come off worse in a 🇬🇧/🇪🇺 trade war?

    Con voters
    UK - 27%
    EU - 20%
    Both - 40%

    Lab voters
    UK - 76%
    EU - 3%
    Both - 11%

    Leave voters
    UK - 25%
    EU - 21%
    Both - 36%

    Remain voters
    UK - 76%
    EU - 3%
    Both - 14%

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/05/18/britons-tend-think-uk-would-come-out-worse-trade-w https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1526842823328382976/photo/1

    This is why it is hard not to call Leave voters stupid. Or does someone want to offer a reasoned defence for the view that the EU would be hurt more than the UK in a trade war?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,010

    Nicola Sturgeon argues Ukraine crisis makes case for Scottish independence 'more important'...

    Sigh.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-argues-ukraine-crisis-26991707

    In which case there would be a gap when Scotland would be out of NATO and it would also have no protection from the UK nuclear deterrent. While Putin wants to expand Russia into neighbouring nations he also benefits from Western nations breaking up
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145

    In a lot of jobs the amount of time it takes you to do a task is related to the amount of time you have to do it in. I don't think WFH is much of a factor here. Middle managers hate WFH because it makes it harder to fill people's days with pointless meetings that exist solely to justify the manager's existence.
    Just the opposite in my experience. WFH and remote working generally leads to far more time spent in conference calls.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Standing against racism is not a dubious political campaign, as much as you seem to want to make it one by jumping on two year old quotations of people standing against racism.

    Please tell me what words Harry Kane used which are a dubious political campaign? These are the words he used that you find offensive, I'm not seeing any dubious politics in any of it, so please enlighten me as to what you object to.

    "I hear people ask if we should still be doing it and we should," said the Tottenham striker, 27.

    "What people don't realise is sometimes we are watched by millions of people round the world. Of course, for the person who watches the Premier League every week, they see the same thing every week.

    "But I think if you look around the world you see children watching the game for the first time, seeing us all take a knee and asking their parents and asking why we take the knee.

    "It's a great chance for people to explain why and get their point across. Education is the biggest thing we can do. Adults can teach generations what it means, and what it means to be together and help each other no matter what your race."


    "It means to be together and help each other no matter what your race" - I'm struggling to find anything dubious in that or any way it involves telling people they're all racist.
    I object to them pretending it's generally about racism when it's actually about the BLM campaign, as per that article. Sure, Kane wasn't quoted using the words, but the headline should remind you of the context. Have you forgotten that for a couple of games they all wore the BLM slogan on their shirts in place of their names?

    I object to them calling people racist - even in some cases banning them from grounds - for objecting to support for this specific political campaign.

    It's very telling that people continually use the phrase standing against racism - that is literally what they are not doing. If they did that, approximately nobody would complain. They need to find another gesture, one not so closely linked with the dubious BLM campaign and their earlier support for it, otherwise they will continue to get condemned for their support of it.
  • This is why it is hard not to call Leave voters stupid. Or does someone want to offer a reasoned defence for the view that the EU would be hurt more than the UK in a trade war?
    Considering Leave voters are saying "Both" and Remain voters are picking a side, it seems that Remain voters are the stupid ones.

    In a trade war, of course the correct answer is "Both".
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The BLM campaign to 99.99% of people who heard and used the words just means that black lives matter and does not mean anything dubious whatsoever.

    When people objected to dubious politics a few eccentric individuals had that were being used by those words then they stopped using the words BLM and started using their own words which they use today like "Kick It Out" or "United Against Racism" so what is dubious about that? The fact they've stopped saying BLM should be the end of the matter, unless you find United Against Racism to be dubious?
    They haven't stopped using the BLM gesture. If they want to continue to make a gesture, they should find a different one.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,188

    When I heard about the Mexican drug tunnel I was sure the same story happened about ten years ago. Now I think I might have actually remembered a plotline in the TV show Weeds..

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smuggling_tunnel#US–Mexico

    First reference seems to be 2006
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,092
    Exclusive:

    Rishi Sunak is drawing up plans to increase warm home discount by hundreds of pounds before cutting taxes

    Treasury officials are looking at a one off increase taking it to £300, £500 or £600 - funded directly by exchequer

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rishi-sunak-plans-heating-bill-discounts-and-tax-cuts-5zgwqcbft
  • Applicant said:

    They haven't stopped using the BLM gesture. If they want to continue to make a gesture, they should find a different one.
    Its not a BLM gesture its an anti-racism gesture. It predates BLM and is associated by 99.9999% of people who see it with anti-racism and not the BLM that may have tried but failed to hijack it.

    You claiming its a BLM gesture is as pathetic as claiming that because the BNP use the Union Flag anyone who uses the Union Flag is a racist and using a racist gesture.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    HYUFD said:

    Czech Republic and Poland too
    There are 11 EU countries with a higher inflation rate of 9%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018
    nico679 said:

    I disagree . The refusal to put in the windfall tax is an own goal and looks very bad in the eyes of the public . There already is an empty locker so borrowing will have to go up regardless to help mitigate the cost of living crisis .

    The Tories will just face “ too little too late “ accusations once they do act .
    Borrowing is not the answer
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,092
    Cummings' comments should always be taken as coming with an agenda and being far from impartial.

    Nonetheless, this rings as substantially true. I wonder how many other industries could have CEO's / owners with such immediate access to the PM. And it's having an effect.

    https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1526845000365002753
    https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1526836612990177280
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    The Bring back the 1950s brigade might win a few more elections with their nonsense, but they know that they will lose the future heart and soul of the country.

    10 year olds forming opinions today are not going to listen to the Daily Mail or Piers Morgan, but the likes of Harry Kane, Jordan Henderson and Raheem Sterling.

    The around the world bit is also important given in lots of authoritarian countries like China and Russia is hard to get anti discrimination messages through, and football is absolutely one of the best ways of spreading our now English values of no discrimination globally.
    I was listening to the radio in the car yesterday and there was an ad for Piers Morgan's new show. The clip was him doing some tired nonsense about how vegans are so miserable they should eat a steak to cheer up. It was just embarrassing, so lame, so predictable, so pointless. There must be a market for this kind of basic shit, but can you even imagine being the kind of person who this would appeal to?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,493

    There are 11 EU countries with a higher inflation rate of 9%
    Yes, I agree, I was just replying to his list.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    In which case there would be a gap when Scotland would be out of NATO and it would also have no protection from the UK nuclear deterrent. While Putin wants to expand Russia into neighbouring nations he also benefits from Western nations breaking up
    Interestingly there is now a big majority of Scots voters in favour of retaining Trident. So an iconic SNP shibboleth has become a liability.

    "A poll published last week suggested that voters in Scotland do not agree with the first minister, with 58 per cent of respondents saying Trident should be retained. Just 20 per cent of people backed scrapping it."

    From: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/793bedee-d564-11ec-bb99-1bcd45646516?shareToken=2247c7666b536c19241b14e8ec618428
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513

    There are 11 EU countries with a higher inflation rate of 9%
    And that's EU inflation for March.

    Its likely to jump up again in April.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Considering Leave voters are saying "Both" and Remain voters are picking a side, it seems that Remain voters are the stupid ones.

    In a trade war, of course the correct answer is "Both".
    Er, the question is who comes off worse. That is a question that requires you to pick a side.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Its not a BLM gesture its an anti-racism gesture. It predates BLM and is associated by 99.9999% of people who see it with anti-racism and not the BLM that may have tried but failed to hijack it.

    You claiming its a BLM gesture is as pathetic as claiming that because the BNP use the Union Flag anyone who uses the Union Flag is a racist and using a racist gesture.
    It was explicitly a BLM gesture when they started using it, which is why they started using it. The idea that the message somehow changed when the gesture didn't is frankly risible. Not least because the idea that it was a generic anti-racism gesture only started after fans came back and some booed it.

    If they want to do that, it's fine - I just ask them to be honest about it. Otherwise they're stoking an atmosphere where a section of fans feel that they're seen as a basket of deplorables - and we learned with football fans in the 70s and 80s, if you treat them like animals some of them will behave like it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    I was listening to the radio in the car yesterday and there was an ad for Piers Morgan's new show. The clip was him doing some tired nonsense about how vegans are so miserable they should eat a steak to cheer up. It was just embarrassing, so lame, so predictable, so pointless. There must be a market for this kind of basic shit, but can you even imagine being the kind of person who this would appeal to?
    Of course I can, I am male and getting older. My instincts to have a bit of a moan and for a bit of nostalgia are already increasing over time. If I did not stop and think about some of the issues a bit I might be one of them.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    This is why it is hard not to call Leave voters stupid. Or does someone want to offer a reasoned defence for the view that the EU would be hurt more than the UK in a trade war?
    Calling leave voters stupid resulted in brexit
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,510
    The race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick in Pennsylvania’s G.O.P. Senate primary was too close to call.

    NY Times
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    edited May 2022

    Considering Leave voters are saying "Both" and Remain voters are picking a side, it seems that Remain voters are the stupid ones.

    In a trade war, of course the correct answer is "Both".
    It’s obvious both sides would suffer but clearly the UK would suffer more as its economy is more reliant on EU trade . This is basic economics so not sure why you’re calling Remainers stupid .
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Calling leave voters stupid resulted in brexit
    Hang on, don't you think Brexit is a good outcome now?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145

    Interestingly there is now a big majority of Scots voters in favour of retaining Trident. So an iconic SNP shibboleth has become a liability.

    "A poll published last week suggested that voters in Scotland do not agree with the first minister, with 58 per cent of respondents saying Trident should be retained. Just 20 per cent of people backed scrapping it."

    From: https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/793bedee-d564-11ec-bb99-1bcd45646516?shareToken=2247c7666b536c19241b14e8ec618428
    If The Times thinks an independent Scotland will retain Trident, what will the United Kingdom do?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    This is why it is hard not to call Leave voters stupid. Or does someone want to offer a reasoned defence for the view that the EU would be hurt more than the UK in a trade war?
    They would both be damaged and would show a failure of leadership by both sides
  • Applicant said:

    It was explicitly a BLM gesture when they started using it, which is why they started using it. The idea that the message somehow changed when the gesture didn't is frankly risible. Not least because the idea that it was a generic anti-racism gesture only started after fans came back and some booed it.

    If they want to do that, it's fine - I just ask them to be honest about it. Otherwise they're stoking an atmosphere where a section of fans feel that they're seen as a basket of deplorables - and we learned with football fans in the 70s and 80s, if you treat them like animals some of them will behave like it.
    It was not explictly a BLM gesture when they started using it , it was explicitly an anti-racism gesture and "BLM" means no more and no less than the words black lives matter for most people. Is there anything dubious about the words black lives matter? No, of course not, just as there's nothing dubious about LFC fans demanding Justice for the 96 (now sadly 97).

    By uniting against racism we aren't treating people like animals whatsoever.

    Claiming being against racism is dubious is as inane and ridiculous as claiming that everyone flying the nations flag for the Queen's Jubilee is racist because racists use the flag. Would you stand for anyone claiming that bullshit or would you tell them to jog on and stop being silly?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936

    I was listening to the radio in the car yesterday and there was an ad for Piers Morgan's new show. The clip was him doing some tired nonsense about how vegans are so miserable they should eat a steak to cheer up. It was just embarrassing, so lame, so predictable, so pointless. There must be a market for this kind of basic shit, but can you even imagine being the kind of person who this would appeal to?
    Piers Morgan is the most tedious of all the media loudmouths. He never has an interesting, surprising, or unusual take on anything at all.
    He merely takes received wisdom and amplifies it over and over again.
    Almost as if he has no views of his own.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    The race between Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick in Pennsylvania’s G.O.P. Senate primary was too close to call.

    NY Times

    Stop the Steal!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,510
    Fetterman is Dem primary pick in Penn.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 27,513

    I was listening to the radio in the car yesterday and there was an ad for Piers Morgan's new show. The clip was him doing some tired nonsense about how vegans are so miserable they should eat a steak to cheer up. It was just embarrassing, so lame, so predictable, so pointless. There must be a market for this kind of basic shit, but can you even imagine being the kind of person who this would appeal to?
    The market is people who don't like him and so talk about what a moron he is.

    Morgan's problem is that Farage is much better at the 'bloke in a pub saying controversial things' entertainment.

    Morgan, being detestable, needs a 'nice' person as a a co-host.
  • Er, the question is who comes off worse. That is a question that requires you to pick a side.
    Not if the word "both" is an option it doesn't.

    Both was an option and a plurality of Leave voters chose it. Only 3% of Remain voters did.

    If anyone is thick there, it isn't Leave voters.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222
    Alistair said:

    Stop the Steal!
    Trafalgar and Susquehanna polling both complete bollocks.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 65,018

    Hang on, don't you think Brexit is a good outcome now?
    Of course it is not, but then improving it requires both parties to grow up and act in everyone's interest
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    And that's EU inflation for March.

    Its likely to jump up again in April.
    We've already had a flash number for April for EU countries. Inflation in the Euro Area was 7.5% in April; in Germany 7.8%; in France 5.4%; in Italy 6.6%; in Spain 8.3%.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited May 2022

    It was not explictly a BLM gesture when they started using it ,
    Oh dear. I understand how painful the year 2020 was and a lot of people have blocked a lot of it out, but you do really seem to have forgotten how football jumped on the BLM campaign's bandwagon that summer when there was already a long-standing football anti-racism campaign in existence.

    Is there anything dubious about the words black lives matter?

    There is when the words "all lives matter" are decried as racist and a threat to "black lives matter".
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,017

    There are 11 EU countries with a higher inflation rate of 9%

    But no G7 countries.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,795

    If The Times thinks an independent Scotland will retain Trident, what will the United Kingdom do?
    Being out of NATO and giving up trident is extreme Celtic Privilege on behalf of the SNP, Safe in the knowledge there will always be someone bigger looking out for them, all the benefits, but making sure they can act holier than thou to those very same nations which would defend them.

    As it shows, NATO means a heck of a lot to people which actually are threatened.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,275
    edited May 2022

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smuggling_tunnel#US–Mexico

    First reference seems to be 2006
    Ah, that may well be what inspired the writers of the fourth series of Weeds, commissioned in 2007
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weeds_(season_4)
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    Not if the word "both" is an option it doesn't.

    Both was an option and a plurality of Leave voters chose it. Only 3% of Remain voters did.

    If anyone is thick there, it isn't Leave voters.
    But why would the EU be hurt as much as us, when trade with the EU is a far bigger share of our imports and exports than it is of theirs?
  • Applicant said:

    Oh dear. I understand how painful the year 2020 was and a lot of people have blocked a lot of it out, but you do really seem to have forgotten how football jumped on the BLM campaign's bandwagon that summer when there was already a long-standing football anti-racism campaign in existence. There is when the words "all lives matter" are decried as racist and a threat to "black lives matter".
    Again the words "BLM" is just anti-racism for almost everyone sane and yes there is a long-standing anti-racism campaign in existence and that is there because there is a longer-standing racism problem in football that is still there.

    If the words "all lives matter" are used in response to the the words "black lives matter" then yes that is dismissive, insensitive and nasty of course it is, just as if anyone said "justice for everyone" as an instantaneous response every time "Justice for the 96" was said it would be dismissive, rude and nasty.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277

    Not if the word "both" is an option it doesn't.

    Both was an option and a plurality of Leave voters chose it. Only 3% of Remain voters did.

    If anyone is thick there, it isn't Leave voters.
    The question was both equally in that respect . Clearly this has hit a nerve for you and you’re now busy digging a hole .

    Clearly as the UKs GDP is more reliant on EU trade a trade war hurts the smaller partner more . Not sure this is controversial , it’s basic economics and supported by facts not Leaver Unicorn reality !
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,397

    If The Times thinks an independent Scotland will retain Trident, what will the United Kingdom do?
    If this poll means anything, it may be that the SNP are not really being taken very seriously at the moment. Elections are a long way away in any event, and a referendum is more a matter of gesture than substance. Nevertheless Sturgeon remains lucky in her choice of enemies, so I guess the long stalemate in Scottish politics simply continues.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,222

    But no G7 countries.

    EUR - GBP has been relatively steady. We're still ~ lashed to Europe when it comes to geopolitical economic pain.

    British spot gas was really cheap yesterday but we can't benefit from it due to reasons now >.>
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    They would both be damaged and would show a failure of leadership by both sides
    Yes I agree but who in your opinion would come off worse?
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Again the words "BLM" is just anti-racism for almost everyone sane and yes there is a long-standing anti-racism campaign in existence and that is there because there is a longer-standing racism problem in football that is still there.

    If the words "all lives matter" are used in response to the the words "black lives matter" then yes that is dismissive, insensitive and nasty of course it is, just as if anyone said "justice for everyone" as an instantaneous response every time "Justice for the 96" was said it would be dismissive, rude and nasty.
    "everyone sane" being "people who haven't looked into what the BLM campaign actually stands for", I presume.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,145

    Being out of NATO and giving up trident is extreme Celtic Privilege on behalf of the SNP, Safe in the knowledge there will always be someone bigger looking out for them, all the benefits, but making sure they can act holier than thou to those very same nations which would defend them.

    As it shows, NATO means a heck of a lot to people which actually are threatened.
    The SNP now wants a future independent Scotland to join Nato. Scotland would not be allowed to retain Trident on independence so the fact it does not want to is neither here nor there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,936
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,536

    Nicola Sturgeon argues Ukraine crisis makes case for Scottish independence 'more important'...

    Sigh.

    https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/nicola-sturgeon-argues-ukraine-crisis-26991707

    I wonder what she was referring to here...

    It's not about turning away from the world, it's not about separation, it's about how do we ensure that Scotland - a country with historic traditions of being a force in the world - can play that positive force in the world in the future.
This discussion has been closed.