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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation Indyref poll is out

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,518
    JonathanD said:

    Maybe the mystery ICM poll is one of their 'wisdom of the crowd' polls and has sampled lots of depressed Unionists and too many jubilant Nationalists!

    Its a strangely written article by Ancona, almost reads like the poll results were added after the rest of it was written.

    I think that's a good shout, the Telegraph seem to be really on board for the ICM Wisdom index so they may have commissioned one for the Indyref. If that is the case it shows how bullish the Yes sidr and how pessimistic No are at least, capturing the national mood music very well.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited September 2014
    Former United Kingdom.

    FUK,
  • You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    We could have the wonderful scenario, come Friday, ICM could be both the most accurate and least accurate pollster in the indyref race

    They're certainly hedging their bets.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Whoops!
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    C U next Thursday.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    One of the curiosities of the Survation polls of late is that they are showing fairly consistent and strong leads for no in Glasgow, in this one 54.7: 45.3. If they are right about that it would put No in a very strong position.

    Conversely they are consistently showing large Yes leads in the north east which given they are presumably including Aberdeen City does not feel right either.

    I think the evidence that the Borders are going to vote pretty much 2:1 for no is becoming overwhelming. It raises some interesting questions of where the border of an independent Scotland really ought to be. Maybe the Crinan canal?

    These are all subsamples of course and need to be treated with caution but they are also fairly consistent across most of the recent polling which includes this sort of geographical breakdown.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Result.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,188
    edited September 2014
    Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Someone pointed out to me Yesterday, my comments and tweets could lead to economic disaster.

    As someone prone to typos, it is frightening to have that kind of power
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,690

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    I heard it had 'yes' leading by 12 points!

    (Only kidding :-))
  • Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Huge amounts of money are being wagered on this story ....... in excess of £40,000 with Betfair alone over the last 20 minutes!

    Let's get the facts sorted asap!
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    I don't see that you've read anything into it that any reasonable person wouldn't have done likewise
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited September 2014
    DavidL said:

    One of the curiosities of the Survation polls of late is that they are showing fairly consistent and strong leads for no in Glasgow, in this one 54.7: 45.3. If they are right about that it would put No in a very strong position.

    Conversely they are consistently showing large Yes leads in the north east which given they are presumably including Aberdeen City does not feel right either.

    I think the evidence that the Borders are going to vote pretty much 2:1 for no is becoming overwhelming. It raises some interesting questions of where the border of an independent Scotland really ought to be. Maybe the Crinan canal?

    These are all subsamples of course and need to be treated with caution but they are also fairly consistent across most of the recent polling which includes this sort of geographical breakdown.

    As a Borderer I would say that whilst Border Country doesn't want Scotland to become independent they would punch you twice in the gob for suggesting they wouldn't want to be part of Scotland.

    Edit: I've been reading that Glasgow City might vote No but Greater Glasgow will be Yes overall. Very interested to know what the bookies consider 'Glasgow' to be.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732

    Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Huge amounts of money are being wagered on this story ....... in excess of £40,000 with Betfair alone over the last 20 minutes!

    Let's get the facts sorted asap!
    If an error, it is worthy of the Guardian's Corrections and Clarifications page.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Result.

    Were Villa good or Liverpool pony?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,732
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the curiosities of the Survation polls of late is that they are showing fairly consistent and strong leads for no in Glasgow, in this one 54.7: 45.3. If they are right about that it would put No in a very strong position.

    Conversely they are consistently showing large Yes leads in the north east which given they are presumably including Aberdeen City does not feel right either.

    I think the evidence that the Borders are going to vote pretty much 2:1 for no is becoming overwhelming. It raises some interesting questions of where the border of an independent Scotland really ought to be. Maybe the Crinan canal?

    These are all subsamples of course and need to be treated with caution but they are also fairly consistent across most of the recent polling which includes this sort of geographical breakdown.

    As a Borderer I would say that whilst Border Country doesn't want Scotland to become independent they would punch you twice in the gob for suggesting they wouldn't want to be part of Scotland.

    Edit: I've been reading that Glasgow City might vote No but Greater Glasgow will be Yes overall. Very interested to know what the bookies consider 'Glasgow' to be.
    If there is a Glasgow counting region, that'll be it.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Someone pointed out to me Yesterday, my comments and tweets could lead to economic disaster.

    As someone prone to typos, it is frightening to have that kind of power
    Similar cost a friend of mine a substantial 6 figures, once he'd paid the fine to the FSA and his legal bill. Be careful!
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    edited September 2014
    Doesn't the Sunday Telegraph publish a unique monthly ICM Wisdom Index poll, and is this an online poll rather than a phone poll?

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    The Snake Pass is also in Derbyshire ...... Sheffield is 10 miles away from the reservoir.

    I do not deny driving through Derbyshire, but Sheffield was where I spent my morning & afternoon. The last time I checked it was definitely in Yorkshire.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Alistair said:

    DavidL said:

    One of the curiosities of the Survation polls of late is that they are showing fairly consistent and strong leads for no in Glasgow, in this one 54.7: 45.3. If they are right about that it would put No in a very strong position.

    Conversely they are consistently showing large Yes leads in the north east which given they are presumably including Aberdeen City does not feel right either.

    I think the evidence that the Borders are going to vote pretty much 2:1 for no is becoming overwhelming. It raises some interesting questions of where the border of an independent Scotland really ought to be. Maybe the Crinan canal?

    These are all subsamples of course and need to be treated with caution but they are also fairly consistent across most of the recent polling which includes this sort of geographical breakdown.

    As a Borderer I would say that whilst Border Country doesn't want Scotland to become independent they would punch you twice in the gob for suggesting they wouldn't want to be part of Scotland.

    Edit: I've been reading that Glasgow City might vote No but Greater Glasgow will be Yes overall. Very interested to know what the bookies consider 'Glasgow' to be.
    I agree the definition of "Glasgow" is unclear. The SNP did well in Lanarkshire in 2011. Listening to seats where it was rare (pre AV) to have local councillors who were anything other than Labour falling to the SNP one after another was one of the most remarkable election nights I can remember, certainly since 1992 and in some ways even more remarkable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Someone pointed out to me Yesterday, my comments and tweets could lead to economic disaster.

    As someone prone to typos, it is frightening to have that kind of power
    I have re-read that paragraph a dozen times and cannot twist it via typo or subbing into anything other than what it says.
  • Sean_F said:

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    Are you toying with us?
    Someone pointed out to me Yesterday, my comments and tweets could lead to economic disaster.

    As someone prone to typos, it is frightening to have that kind of power
    Similar cost a friend of mine a substantial 6 figures, once he'd paid the fine to the FSA and his legal bill. Be careful!
    The other night, when I broke the YouGov figures, I had people from the Telegraph Scotland correspondent retweeting my figures.

    Mike's had people from the city ringing in the last week, asking for polling analysis on the indyref.
  • alexalex Posts: 244
    If it was a 'wisdom poll' it would surely be good for 'no'. Are there any yes supporters who don't think they're going to win (short of an MI5 fix)
  • You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    The article says what it says. Its not down to you to second guess whether a newspaper is reporting things accurately.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    I was surprised at how tight things were in the last Survation poll in the North East, and like you, it simple didn't feel right for Aberdeen City or around my patch of Aberdeenshire. But when I checked, this area also included Angus and Dundee which could certainly have the effect of making it look much tighter overall.
    DavidL said:

    One of the curiosities of the Survation polls of late is that they are showing fairly consistent and strong leads for no in Glasgow, in this one 54.7: 45.3. If they are right about that it would put No in a very strong position.

    Conversely they are consistently showing large Yes leads in the north east which given they are presumably including Aberdeen City does not feel right either.

    I think the evidence that the Borders are going to vote pretty much 2:1 for no is becoming overwhelming. It raises some interesting questions of where the border of an independent Scotland really ought to be. Maybe the Crinan canal?

    These are all subsamples of course and need to be treated with caution but they are also fairly consistent across most of the recent polling which includes this sort of geographical breakdown.

  • fitalass said:


    Beverley, I quite fancy a move to Yorkshire. :)

    I was over there this morning. Cheshire is much nicer IMO, although the drive past the Derwent reservoir outside Sheffield was nice.

    The Derwent reservoir is actually in Derbyshire, not Yorkshire!
    Yes, but the Snake Pass A623 goes past it. I went to Sheffield.

    Ah Beverley, I might just about forgive you for the heinous crime of believing that the Derwent Reservoir is in the inferior county of Yorkshire.

    Two of my favourite hills are on either side: Kinder and Bleaklow. (*) If Yorkshire ever tried to claim them then it'd be war. We would have the skirmish of Madwoman's Stones, pikes at Pikenaze Moor, and cannibalism at Black Chew Head.

    In fact, Yorkshire should really just give in now, and cede everything south of Marsden to us.

    (*) It probably says a great deal about me that my favourite two hills are bogs ... :-)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    You know, I could have read TOO MUCH into that D'Ancona piece/It could be a typo

    The article says what it says. Its not down to you to second guess whether a newspaper is reporting things accurately.
    I'm almost nervous being on the same message board as the greatest influence on political events the country has ever known!
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    weejonnie said:


    it is also in Northumberland - Clearly it can move around at will.

    The wonders of the English road system.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    New Thread.

    What a corker - is it confirmed?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    SeanT said:

    lol. Betfair all over the place.

    You can tell not everyone knows, the price is going down but sticking and pulling back up. Half the market thinks the other half of the market is idiots.
  • The more time passes without a denial / correction of the telegraph ICM poll 8pt YES lead, the more likely it is true.
    IF it is true, the market is massively mis-priced.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256


    Ah Beverley, I might just about forgive you for the heinous crime of believing that the Derwent Reservoir is in the inferior county of Yorkshire.

    Mr Jessop[ - careful reading shows that I never said that the reservoir was in Yorkshire, just that "although the drive past the Derwent reservoir outside Sheffield "

    I find both Yorkshire and Lancashire a bit bleak rather than inferior. The windswept hills and moors strike me as rather barren although magnificent in their austereness. I regret to say that the bit of Derbyshire that I zoomed through in my little red car shared these characteristics.

    Cheshire, although boringly flat, just feels "warmer".

    Two of my favourite hills are on either side: Kinder and Bleaklow. (*) If Yorkshire ever tried to claim them then it'd be war. We would have the skirmish of Madwoman's Stones, pikes at Pikenaze Moor, and cannibalism at Black Chew Head.

    In fact, Yorkshire should really just give in now, and cede everything south of Marsden to us.

    (*) It probably says a great deal about me that my favourite two hills are bogs ... :-)

    You sound very passionate about it. I do not really have "favourite places" as such but there are some places that hold memories that are incredibly precious to me. One of them is Porthmadog in NW Wales. A day I spent there in July 88 was the most perfect day of my life which no other day has ever come near. As a result I will never go to Porthmadog again because I want it to stay as I remember it rather than see what it has become.

  • Ah Beverley, I might just about forgive you for the heinous crime of believing that the Derwent Reservoir is in the inferior county of Yorkshire.

    Mr Jessop[ - careful reading shows that I never said that the reservoir was in Yorkshire, just that "although the drive past the Derwent reservoir outside Sheffield "

    I find both Yorkshire and Lancashire a bit bleak rather than inferior. The windswept hills and moors strike me as rather barren although magnificent in their austereness. I regret to say that the bit of Derbyshire that I zoomed through in my little red car shared these characteristics.

    Cheshire, although boringly flat, just feels "warmer".

    Two of my favourite hills are on either side: Kinder and Bleaklow. (*) If Yorkshire ever tried to claim them then it'd be war. We would have the skirmish of Madwoman's Stones, pikes at Pikenaze Moor, and cannibalism at Black Chew Head.

    In fact, Yorkshire should really just give in now, and cede everything south of Marsden to us.

    (*) It probably says a great deal about me that my favourite two hills are bogs ... :-)

    You sound very passionate about it. I do not really have "favourite places" as such but there are some places that hold memories that are incredibly precious to me. One of them is Porthmadog in NW Wales. A day I spent there in July 88 was the most perfect day of my life which no other day has ever come near. As a result I will never go to Porthmadog again because I want it to stay as I remember it rather than see what it has become.
    Bev, I wasn't being 100% serious. Only 99.5%. ;-)

    The moors are an acquired taste, but once you acquire it, it's hard to get them out of your blood.
This discussion has been closed.