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LAB lead down to 1% with YouGov – politicalbetting.com

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  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340

    Perhaps you think that because it was "the right answer" for you. No doubt if it had been the "wrong answer" you might have been clamouring for another vote like the SNP. Democracy is a fickle and complex thing. People tend to claim the primacy of the democratic vote rather like those who claim God is on their side in time of war. My own view is that the 2016 vote had to be enacted. Was it "democratic"? Almost certainly very flakey. "The people" did not get to vote on anything real, only blandishments and guesses. Cameron et al should have had a two phase vote that enabled people to endorse the final deal. That would have been genuinely democratic, but of course Brexiteers didn't want that, they wanted the hardest Brexit possible. No-one, including people on this site knew what the final deal would look like. Most would have probably settled for an EEA type compromise. It was never on offer. Not very democratic.
    Subtler than that, I reckon.

    Every leaver wanted a decisive break with the EU in some way or other (freedom of movement, control of fish, no foreign judges, stepping off ever closer union, strengthening UK-NI links by weakening NI-Eire links et cetera). My hunch is that a lot of people assumed that, apart from their personal bonnet bee, things would bumble along much as before.

    What everyone missed was that the only way to fulfil all the spoken wishes of everyone was an adamantine hard Brexit (the alternative being that the rest of the continent would wake themselves from their reverie, facepalm themselves and say "Of course, all this careful work on the single market was unnecessary! What chumps we all were"). And in doing that, what was sacrificed was the mostly unspoken bumbling along bit. Which is what EEA Brexit would be, relatively harmless, not much point and not Taking Back Control.

    This choice has the consequences we continue to see around us.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    You understand that the country will be getting more prosperous over time, just that some models suggest the rate of increase will be lower than if we had remained? That is not the same as 'getting poorer and poorer'.

    I understand what you are saying about the EU/UK relationship. Of course that will gone on forever. But that it not the same as saying Brexit isn't done. It is. The vote was honoured (in the end). We left.

    Everything else is post brexit.

    I would prefer a close trading relationship with the EU with as little dicking around as possible. I think that will come, but I also suspect there is an element of 'f*ck Britain' in some European nations. I also suspect some want to make it harder for us in order to prove leaving was a bad idea. We have also made poor choices ourselves.

    We have though been hamstrung by NI. TBH if NI did leave the UK and re-unite with Ireland it would be no bad thing for rUK. Less money in the benefits bill for the rest to pay. No more internal border shit.
    That's an interesting last paragraph ...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Carnyx said:

    So? All the Unionists have to do is to get more votes.

    It's no more and no less fixed than FPTP is.
    It’s really not.
    I’m not especially a fan of FPTP.

    If I had the time and/or the skills, I would show you by re-running the elections since 99 under this proposed system, and/or running simulations under reasonable projections (eg Lab 30-50%, PC, 10-30%, Con 20-40% etc).
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Sean_F said:

    Aspire won't appeal beyond wards which have very large numbers of very devout Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh. That's a very niche appeal.
    In Westminster terms, Poplar, Bethnal Green, East and West Ham most likely. Tower Hamlets and Newham basically
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,346
    MrEd said:

    Interesting comment, what do you suspect is happening?
    Warning: fog of war and all that.

    It *appears* that the Russians have formed a bridgehead over a strategically-important river in the east using Spetsnaz troops, perhaps with more than one bridge over. If they can get enough troops and armour over, and the Ukrainians cannot destroy those bridge(s), then a number of Ukrainian brigades might be in trouble. Even the presence of Spetsnaz troops on the other bank could cause the Ukrainians a lot of headaches.

    Perhaps.

    Meanwhile, in the south, the Russians are apparently looking to force their way westwards along the coast from Kherson.

    The Ukrainians are doing well to push the Russians back around Kharkiv. But the Russians might be concentrating elsewhere.

    Basically: for all the videos we are seeing of Russian tanks being destroyed and their troops' idiocy, they're still a major threat.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    Carnyx said:

    That's an interesting last paragraph ...
    In what way? NI does cost the rest more than average - I've seen it given as one reason Eire is not necessarily keen on re-unification. It would also remove the need for an internal border, which is a disaster that should never have been allowed to happen. You would never do it between Devon and Cornwall say.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    Brexit was pointless. The more years that go by the more obvious that is. We have to live with it though. Doesn't stop us having a good laugh at those who would still try and justify it though.
    Even Macron is tacitly admitting that the EU model doesn't work for Europe.

    It's hypocritical for you to rail against "quasi-democracy", complain about constitutional questions being neglected and then turn around and say that Brexit is pointless. It may be right or wrong, and it may lead to a good long term outcome for Britain or not, but it's clearly not pointless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    edited May 2022

    It’s really not.
    I’m not especially a fan of FPTP.

    If I had the time and/or the skills, I would show you by re-running the elections since 99 under this proposed system, and/or running simulations under reasonable projections (eg Lab 30-50%, PC, 10-30%, Con 20-40% etc).
    There is also a rather obvious problem with the new model. LLafur and PC have one irreconciliable policy issue. Much more so than [edit] Slab-SLD coalition, at least at the time before the SLDs went all hard junior Tory and stayed that way.

    I can't imagine a SNP-Slab coalition, because that issue has become so salient.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    Labour leader is economically illiterate and spouting bollocks?

    That's not news. He gets away with it, because that's what Labour does. Those who dislike the Tories might say the same about their leader too.

    Parliamentary privilege means he can say whatever he pleases.
    I actually agree with you. Everyday on PB is a classroom day and I learnt something, to call it stagflation it’s needs unemployment at levels and or increasing, lack of growth with high inflation alone shouldn’t be called Stagflation.

    I wonder though if it’s one of those terms the common understanding of something doesn’t fit the text book definitions, (is the economic textbook term used more often sectorally than to describe countrys economy?) so if we enter recession with high inflation, not just Starmer but all the media and everyone will be referring to it as Stagflation?

    Nb. If Starmer is still front bench politics by then 🤭
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    edited May 2022
    Sean_F said:

    The monarchy is genuinely popular in this country. I don't see that changing.
    Would that be the case if it was Andrew ascending instead of Charles?

    The monarchy is popular, so long as we have popular monarchs. The risk to the monarchy is that at some point we have an unpopular one.

    I feel fairly comfortable that Charles and William will be fine. After that, who knows?*

    * Well, I'll be dead, so I certainly won't.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747

    Subtler than that, I reckon.

    Every leaver wanted a decisive break with the EU in some way or other (freedom of movement, control of fish, no foreign judges, stepping off ever closer union, strengthening UK-NI links by weakening NI-Eire links et cetera). My hunch is that a lot of people assumed that, apart from their personal bonnet bee, things would bumble along much as before.

    What everyone missed was that the only way to fulfil all the spoken wishes of everyone was an adamantine hard Brexit (the alternative being that the rest of the continent would wake themselves from their reverie, facepalm themselves and say "Of course, all this careful work on the single market was unnecessary! What chumps we all were"). And in doing that, what was sacrificed was the mostly unspoken bumbling along bit. Which is what EEA Brexit would be, relatively harmless, not much point and not Taking Back Control.

    This choice has the consequences we continue to see around us.
    That’s fair

    I benignly assumed Brexit would end up as 10 years in EFTA then a rethink. And if Remainers had accepted that, that’s where we’d be now

    The attempt to overthrow the primal vote (peoples referendum!) was a Trumpite outrage and that polarised everyone and that has led us to this ultimate Brexit. Perhaps that was inevitable, who can say

    In the end I still believe we are happier governing ourselves and we will prosper eventually thereby. But I totally understand Remainers who point and say Look it’s a shit-show

    If only they hadn’t tried to subvert the democratic process before, they’d get more of a hearing

    🤷‍♂️
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    DNA tests can also be problematic when looking at heirs to a peerage.

    They tend to be of the form: male heirs of the body. This requires actual descents not just a child of your wife.

    The case of "In the matter of the Baronetcy of Pringle of Stichill" https://www.bailii.org/uk/cases/UKPC/2016/16.html is an interesting read. This considered whether the elder son born in 1903 was actually the son of the eighth baronet based on DNA evidence.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    In what way? NI does cost the rest more than average - I've seen it given as one reason Eire is not necessarily keen on re-unification. It would also remove the need for an internal border, which is a disaster that should never have been allowed to happen. You would never do it between Devon and Cornwall say.
    Wasn't disagreeing! I was struck by how it highlights the problem which the Brexiters have in being irredentist UK nationalists when it comes to NI at the same time as ditto when it comes to Brexit. Your solution neatly resolves the issue, but at least one PBer would be needing a new carpet if it was put into action.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729

    I’m not sure why you are happy with this.

    By all means criticise the LDs, the Greens, or whatever RefUK call themselves these days for underperformance, but each of them had some chance of representation in the current system.

    In turn, given Labour dominance, the LDs and Greens at least might have aspired to helping form a govenment. The LDs indeed did so, until the last election.

    The proposals basically pull that away, and cement a permanent oligopoly in Wales.
    The LDs contributed to the last coalition because of the FPTP element. I think they won zero proportional seats even then. If FPTP is required for fairness, the LDs are being pretty facetious.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850

    In Westminster terms, Poplar, Bethnal Green, East and West Ham most likely. Tower Hamlets and Newham basically
    Some Brummie seats as well
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624
    Carnyx said:

    Wasn't disagreeing! I was struck by how it highlights the problem which the Brexiters have in being irredentist UK nationalists when it comes to NI at the same time as ditto when it comes to Brexit. Your solution neatly resolves the issue, but at least one PBer would be needing a new carpet if it was put into action.
    Ah - I took it as something else (don't know why, just assumed I was being accused of something bad! :D ).
    We were rather unlucky in having the GFA as it made leaving almost impossible. None of the proposed solutions works for everything. If Spain wanted to leave, say, there would be no such issue.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    EPG said:

    The LDs contributed to the last coalition because of the FPTP element. I think they won zero proportional seats even then. If FPTP is required for fairness, the LDs are being pretty facetious.
    I don’t support FPTP for the devolved nations (or in local government). I am agnostic about it’s use for Westminster.

    My issue is not FPTP versus PR.

    My issue is that *this* PR creates a permanent oligopoly in Wales. In simple terms, it’s a stitch-up.

    And that’s before you come to qualitative issues (closed party lists, the so-called “ziplock”).
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    That’s fair

    I benignly assumed Brexit would end up as 10 years in EFTA then a rethink. And if Remainers had accepted that, that’s where we’d be now

    The attempt to overthrow the primal vote (peoples referendum!) was a Trumpite outrage and that polarised everyone and that has led us to this ultimate Brexit. Perhaps that was inevitable, who can say

    In the end I still believe we are happier governing ourselves and we will prosper eventually thereby. But I totally understand Remainers who point and say Look it’s a shit-show

    If only they hadn’t tried to subvert the democratic process before, they’d get more of a hearing

    🤷‍♂️
    It was Theresa May who first excluded EFTA, which was also the beginning of making a mockery of a democratic choice, and the jam-for-all prospectus offered by Vote Leave at the referendum.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022

    It was Theresa May who first excluded EFTA, which was also the beginning of making a mockery of a democratic choice and the jam-for-all prospectus of the referendum.
    Indeed. She also caved in on “sequencing”.

    I excepted some form of EFTA.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Macron’s speech the other day was important in that it described a “not quite EU” as not just possible but desirable.

    The UK should grab onto it with both hands.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Some Brummie seats as well
    Hall Green where Yaqoob stood for Respect has the closest demographic match if Aspire does not appeal beyond the sort of voters ot attracted in TH
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747
    edited May 2022

    It was Theresa May who first excluded EFTA, which was also the beginning of making a mockery of a democratic choice, and the jam-for-all prospectus offered by Vote Leave at the referendum.
    Agreed. Entirely. Her stupid “red-lines” were a disaster. Just for that she has some claim to being the worst prime minister of the last 100 years

    I know people on here don’t like others using the A-word. But what the hell. TMay is autistically insensitive and unable to read a room and in this case not reading the room was catastrophic
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,938
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    Agreed. Entirely. Her stupid “red-lines” were a disaster. Just for that she has some claim to being the worst prime minister of the last 100 years

    I know people on here don’t like others using the A-word. But what the hell. I thing TMay is autistically insensitive and unable to read a room and in this case not reading the room was catastrophic
    Indeed. Although we also musn't forget that for herself, she was simply saving her skin. Cave in to the ERG = staying in power.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,819

    Macron’s speech the other day was important in that it described a “not quite EU” as not just possible but desirable.

    The UK should grab onto it with both hands.

    No, because in Macron's vision, the outer circles would be subordinate to the core.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072
    edited May 2022

    Utter bullshit. Just because one hard brexit warrior defines Brexit as breaking the EU social model blah blah blah...

    Brexit isn't done until better is delivered? WTAF?

    Brexit (as regarded by 99.9% of normal people) is complete. We have left the EU. Do you deny that?
    We do not pay money directly to the EU. Do you deny that?
    We have no say over what the EU does - thats up to them. Do you deny that?

    We are in the post Brexit era. Looks like its not going as well as some hoped. Its certainly not as bad as some of the remainer faction hoped either.
    You are going for a thin definition of “Brexit done” that’s not the definition to be arguing over. Not the definition Boris used today I was commenting on. That’the political slogan version! 😃

    If you still don’t understand I’ll have a go at explaining it to you.

    Is Brexit done in terms of the arguments for it proven?
    Is brexit done in terms of the argument is won?
    Is brexit done in terms of it is history, the country has moved on?

    In terms of the political slogan “brexit is done” the answers are NO, NO, and NO.

    You are wheeling out the thin textbook version to try to disguise the elephant in the room here. You can’t see the elephant in the room because your Ostrich head is in the sand.

    We are exactly where we we’re in 2016 in terms of the arguments the same, nothing proven, the current brexit deal can be quite dramatically altered and still be brexit. And the voting blocs in last weeks local elections in England were still remainer v leavers the country has not moved on and put this in the past.

    Not one of those three questions I asked defining the political slogan version of Brexit is done can be answered yes?

    In this “political slogan” interpretation of “brexit is done” you surely agree with me, brexit isn’t done?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747

    Macron’s speech the other day was important in that it described a “not quite EU” as not just possible but desirable.

    The UK should grab onto it with both hands.

    The UK will never accept crumbs offered by macron. He hates Brexit and he hates Brexit Britain. In his view the UK must not and cannot succeed ex-EU because if it does that undermines the entire postwar French project of EU unity as a way of projecting French power

    Non. Non non non
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    No, because in Macron's vision, the outer circles would be subordinate to the core.
    That might be his starting position, I don’t know.

    At the end of the day, he wants an inner core in which France can maintain top-dog status.

    We want an outer ring with access to the single market and co-operation only on those things we want to co-operate on.

    Those two positions are reconcilable, with fancy diplomacy.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Indeed. Although we musn't forget that for herself, she was simply saving her skin. Cave in to the ERG = staying in power.
    Yes, it wasn’t her autism.
    It was her cowardice.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    Leon said:

    That’s fair

    I benignly assumed Brexit would end up as 10 years in EFTA then a rethink. And if Remainers had accepted that, that’s where we’d be now

    The attempt to overthrow the primal vote (peoples referendum!) was a Trumpite outrage and that polarised everyone and that has led us to this ultimate Brexit. Perhaps that was inevitable, who can say

    In the end I still believe we are happier governing ourselves and we will prosper eventually thereby. But I totally understand Remainers who point and say Look it’s a shit-show

    If only they hadn’t tried to subvert the democratic process before, they’d get more of a hearing

    🤷‍♂️
    Chief amongst those cheering on a Trumpite outrage was the Leader of the Opposition. One of several reasons he is not fit to be PM, none of them curry related.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Leon said:

    The UK will never accept crumbs offered by macron. He hates Brexit and he hates Brexit Britain. In his view the UK must not and cannot succeed ex-EU because if it does that undermines the entire postwar French project of EU unity as a way of projecting French power

    Non. Non non non
    He didn’t say that in his speech though.

    The logic of your position is that we should stay as we are until Macron goes.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747

    He didn’t say that in his speech though.

    The logic of your position is that we should stay as we are until Macron goes.
    Oui
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022

    Chief amongst those cheering on a Trumpite outrage was the Leader of the Opposition. One of several reasons he is not fit to be PM, none of them curry related.
    There was no Trumpite outrage.

    Only retarded people think that. And Leon, who is not retarded but likes to shit-stir.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Leon said:

    Oui
    🤷🏻‍♂️

    Enjoy stagflation.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Leon said:

    The UK will never accept crumbs offered by macron. He hates Brexit and he hates Brexit Britain. In his view the UK must not and cannot succeed ex-EU because if it does that undermines the entire postwar French project of EU unity as a way of projecting French power

    Non. Non non non
    Why not see what is on offer instead of just rejecting it out of hand?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Why not see what is on offer instead of just rejecting it out of hand?
    It’s the Brexit psychology.

    Working with EU (or France, or Germany) is a humiliation too far.

    It reveals quite primitive insecurity.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    He didn’t say that in his speech though.

    The logic of your position is that we should stay as we are until Macron goes.
    I'm not sure that logic is a relevant concept here.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 14,072

    I'm glad its not just me. I truly wonder what planet some people are on. I think if you asked the public whether Brexit was done you'd get a very different answer to asking PB.
    I’m on a political planet where things don’t get done, ever, they merely move into a new phase, where you end up on the defence, not the attack.

    Attack is always more fun, and easy to get the crowd shouting. 😝
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617

    Ah - I took it as something else (don't know why, just assumed I was being accused of something bad! :D ).
    We were rather unlucky in having the GFA as it made leaving almost impossible. None of the proposed solutions works for everything. If Spain wanted to leave, say, there would be no such issue.
    Quite re GFA, as was obvious back in 2015-6 to even folk such as me. Arguably made an even worse problem now. At least they made a good start at easing NI out of the UK to achieve your solution intentionally or otherwise - but now?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405

    It was Theresa May who first excluded EFTA, which was also the beginning of making a mockery of a democratic choice, and the jam-for-all prospectus offered by Vote Leave at the referendum.
    Don't let facts intrude. Remember that Brexit is all the fault of Remainers.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539
    For Leon - 27 in Kingsbridge, Devon. Jamie has fun with his food!

    Queen Elizabeth II's 70th Jubilee Banquet

    Celebrating our beloved Queen’s Platinum Jubilee, we take you through a journey of the British classics, with a fine dining ‘Jamie twist’.

    Available Thursday 2nd – Saturday 4th June, lunch & dinner - £90 per head
    Snacks:
    Spam fritters
    Dandelion & burdock
    1937 – became a wartime delicacy.
    Chicken liver parfait
    And cherry 'Jammie Dodger'
    1960 – the Queen’s favourite biscuit.
    Venison sausage roll
    Houses of Parliament sauce
    1860 – the Royal Family preferred using venison from their estate.
    We’ve turned this into the British staple classic.
    Iced cream cheese, cucumber, & caviar “sandwich”
    1830 – the Royal sandwich.

    Main event:
    *
    One
    Windsor soup
    English muffin, Marmite butter
    1890 - it doesn’t get more British than Marmite, and the Windsor soup is a Buckingham Palace favourite.
    *
    Two
    Coronation chicken
    Mango gel, curry emulsion, pickled shimeji, sultana dressing
    1953 - a recipe invented for the Queen.
    *
    Three
    Great British fish and chips
    Turbot cooked on the bone, minted pea purée, pomme Anna, Béarnaise sauce
    1967 - fish and chips first came to London in 1967. This is Jamie’s version.
    *
    Four
    Roast beef
    Yorkshire pudding stuffed with oxtail, cauliflower cheese purée, roasted carrot, braised red cabbage, duck fat potato fondant, bone marrow gravy
    1485 - no explanation needed.
    *
    Five
    'Eton tidy'
    Pimm’s jelly, English strawberries, meringue, clotted cream ice cream
    1893 - strawberries and clotted cream; the best strawberries are British with Cornish clotted cream.
    *
    Six
    Rhubarb & custard
    Marcus Wareing’s custard tart, poached rhubarb, rhubarb ripple ice cream
    Served on the Queen’s 80th birthday. Her favourite pudding is rhubarb and custard.
    *
    To finish
    English tea
    Battenberg cake, treacle tart, petit fours
    This is the way the Queen takes her tea.

    An all-English wine and champagne flight will be available.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    You are going for a thin definition of “Brexit done” that’s not the definition to be arguing over. Not the definition Boris used today I was commenting on. That’the political slogan version! 😃

    If you still don’t understand I’ll have a go at explaining it to you.

    Is Brexit done in terms of the arguments for it proven?
    Is brexit done in terms of the argument is won?
    Is brexit done in terms of it is history, the country has moved on?

    In terms of the political slogan “brexit is done” the answers are NO, NO, and NO.

    You are wheeling out the thin textbook version to try to disguise the elephant in the room here. You can’t see the elephant in the room because your Ostrich head is in the sand.

    We are exactly where we we’re in 2016 in terms of the arguments the same, nothing proven, the current brexit deal can be quite dramatically altered and still be brexit. And the voting blocs in last weeks local elections in England were still remainer v leavers the country has not moved on and put this in the past.

    Not one of those three questions I asked defining the political slogan version of Brexit is done can be answered yes?

    In this “political slogan” interpretation of “brexit is done” you surely agree with me, brexit isn’t done?
    "Political slogan"?

    The UK is no longer a member of the EU. That being the only meaning of the phrase "Brexit is done", Brexit is done.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,539

    There was no Trumpite outrage.

    Only retarded people think that. And Leon, who is not retarded but likes to shit-stir.
    Christ, you are so thin-skinned about Brexit it is almost no fun winding you up.

    Almost.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340

    Yes, it wasn’t her autism.
    It was her cowardice.
    One of the alternate histories that needs to be written at some point-

    What if Boris had become Conservative leader in 2016?

    Because to get from the Vote Leave prospectus to EEA would have been a helluva swerve (and would have left a lot of Vote Leave and Leave.EU fuming), and he's the only politician in the UK with the nerve to pull it off. Had he wanted to. Would he have wanted to?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Sean_F said:

    Aspire won't appeal beyond wards which have very large numbers of very devout Muslims from Pakistan and Bangladesh. That's a very niche appeal.
    Maybe not even Pakistani, there's often a mistake made to lump both Bangladeshi and Pakistani Muslims together but they are two distinct cultures which is why a victory in Tower Hamlets doesn't necessarily translate to a victory in Bradford.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687

    Why not see what is on offer instead of just rejecting it out of hand?
    Better, why not try to influence what is on offer ?
    If this were simply about us, then that might be difficult. Alongside Ukraine, and possibly other easter european countries, there is perhaps some leverage.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Don't let facts intrude. Remember that Brexit is all the fault of Remainers.
    Remind me which side May was on?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Jess Phillips is having a good old dig on twitter about parties continuing over tonight's Downing Street shindig.
    I'm not sure why. Nor are her respondees.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    One of the alternate histories that needs to be written at some point-

    What if Boris had become Conservative leader in 2016?

    Because to get from the Vote Leave prospectus to EEA would have been a helluva swerve (and would have left a lot of Vote Leave and Leave.EU fuming), and he's the only politician in the UK with the nerve to pull it off. Had he wanted to. Would he have wanted to?
    I am not sure it would have been such a swerve. For a few months or so, there was a kind of general confusion over Brexit and it was left to May to define the possibilities.

    This she failed to do, and so hardliners began to define the terrain for her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    Leader of the House Mark Spencer on R4 interviewed about the government’s Queen’s Speech program.

    I’d never consciously heard him before. Jeez, what a wooden topped bluffer.
    Makes Grayling sound like Talleyrand.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    Applicant said:

    Remind me which side May was on?
    Technically a Remainer, too. Although by the time she fucked it up she had switched sides.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Nigelb said:

    Better, why not try to influence what is on offer ?
    If this were simply about us, then that might be difficult. Alongside Ukraine, and possibly other easter european countries, there is perhaps some leverage.
    Not to mention the EFTAs and Switzerland.

    There was a learned article about a potential common front with Switzerland over common market access that I read the day which pointed out some of our likely demands had been on offer previously by the EU or mooted by EU think tanks.

    I would try to find if and post here but can’t be arsed and Marquee Mark et al won’t read it anyway.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Applicant said:

    Remind me which side May was on?
    Emotionally always a bit of a leaver, pragmatically a very quiet and reluctant remainer for career reasons, generally pretty neutral pre the vote.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    He appears to be having a mental breakdown.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747

    It’s the Brexit psychology.

    Working with EU (or France, or Germany) is a humiliation too far.

    It reveals quite primitive insecurity.
    No, it’s just obvious. Saves time

    Macron is not going to offer a good deal to Brexit Britain

    I’ll happily look at it, but I’ll tell you now it won’t be anything we want. It’s like accepting the first offer in an acrimonious divorce
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,442

    - “How well or badly do you think the government are doing at handling Britain's exit from the European Union?” (net)

    Scotland -63
    London -38
    North -26
    Midlands & Wales -20
    Rest of South -18

    GB -26

    (YouGov/The Times; Sample Size: 1707; Fieldwork: 5-6 May 2022)

    Yesterday SKS was given a golden opportunity to show he's a leader and he took it This is his second. The EU can be a big vote winner. He needs to grab it with both hands. Do a Blair. Don't be scared off because the so called Red Wall don't like foreigners. Sell it to them and get the best talent available to help you do it.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Leon said:

    No, it’s just obvious. Saves time

    Macron is not going to offer a good deal to Brexit Britain

    I’ll happily look at it, but I’ll tell you now it won’t be anything we want. It’s like accepting the first offer in an acrimonious divorce
    Brexit is partly driven by the desire for old men to moan. You are therefore right that any deal we get won't be good enough for the hardcore Brexiteers, if they gave us everything we listed, they would still have done it offensively somehow. But you are wrong that it can't be good for Britain.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255
    edited May 2022

    Indeed correct. Meaning it is much harder to settle in an EU country armed with just a UK passport. Before, it was a right. Now you need to apply for it.
    And yet more British Nationals are managing to get residency in EU countries than ever before. In 2021 Portugal had its highest ever increase in British Nationals taking up residency - up 8% on the previous year and the 6th year in a row it had increased. Now one might reasonably ask why all these people want to leave the UK and settle elsewhere but that is not the argument. It puts a lie to the idea it is now significantly harder than it was previously.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    The yawning emoji becuase all this winning here everyday of every week is getting boring now 😃

    You are no good at the little subtleties of things are you?
    No.

    In addition to being a rebellious jock, I am a trade union rep. My colleagues nickname me “The Bulldozer”. Nuff said.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340

    He appears to be having a mental breakdown.
    To be fair to Dan, the last couple of weeks were meant to be when he broke the big stories that showed he was a real journalist. The scandals that brought down a party leader.

    And it's all going pearshaped.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    I am not sure it would have been such a swerve. For a few months or so, there was a kind of general confusion over Brexit and it was left to May to define the possibilities.

    This she failed to do, and so hardliners began to define the terrain for her.
    I would add that the electoral maths suggested that any reasonable Brexit could only be passed with cross-party support.

    Theresa was not willing to reach out beyond her own party, and did not have the confidence to believe that such a solution might be in turn be rewarded electorally.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    And yet more British Nationals are managing to get residency in EU countries than ever before. In 2021 Portugal had its highest ever increase in British Nationals taking up residency - up 8% on the previous year and the 6th year in a row it had increased. Now one might reasonably ask why all these people want to leave the UK and settle elsewhere but that is not the argument. It puts a lie to the idea it is now significantly harder than it was previously.
    Did people have to acquire residency pre Brexit or could they spend some time there without all the faff?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    Nigelb said:

    Better, why not try to influence what is on offer ?
    If this were simply about us, then that might be difficult. Alongside Ukraine, and possibly other easter european countries, there is perhaps some leverage.
    No, fuck all that noise. Any "offer" from the EU that involves any kind of membership should be rejected out of hand. Anything that binds us to them is a loser for us. Imagine being bound by EU foreign policy objectives. Ukraine would now be part of Russia because the UK would have been bound to EU objectives of a quick ending to the war, rather than doing what's right.
  • Applicant said:

    Remind me which side May was on?
    Ah, yes. I still remember her famous quote, "Remain means Remain".
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,687
    These are the photos of wounded Ukrainian soldiers at Azovstal, published by the Azov regiment. There are no sterile bandages and medicines to treat them. 'We call on ICRC, UN to prove your humanity and save wounded people who are not combatants anymore', their statement reads
    https://mobile.twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1524045896304009218
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    MaxPB said:

    No, fuck all that noise. Any "offer" from the EU that involves any kind of membership should be rejected out of hand. Anything that binds us to them is a loser for us. Imagine being bound by EU foreign policy objectives. Ukraine would now be part of Russia because the UK would have been bound to EU objectives of a quick ending to the war, rather than doing what's right.
    That’s not the offer, though.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Roger said:

    Yesterday SKS was given a golden opportunity to show he's a leader and he took it This is his second. The EU can be a big vote winner. He needs to grab it with both hands. Do a Blair. Don't be scared off because the so called Red Wall don't like foreigners. Sell it to them and get the best talent available to help you do it.
    I admire the sentiment, but it was St Tony who ruined politics with bloody focus groups. The man was a follower, not a leader.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    Do you think I could apply for a job in France/Germany without a work permit or work visa? Like before 2016? I don't think so...
    So you need to do a bit of paperwork. Boohoo. So do I for almost anywhere I work in the world. If that is giving you pause for thought then clearly you are not suited for working overseas because take it from me, a bit of paperwork is the least of your problems in most places in the world.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    I would add that the electoral maths suggested that any reasonable Brexit could only be passed with cross-party support.

    Theresa was not willing to reach out beyond her own party, and did not have the confidence to believe that such a solution might be in turn be rewarded electorally.
    Indeed. And this despite the fact that an EFTA-type solution probably had the greatest theoretical ceiling of support.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    You are going for a thin definition of “Brexit done” that’s not the definition to be arguing over. Not the definition Boris used today I was commenting on. That’the political slogan version! 😃

    If you still don’t understand I’ll have a go at explaining it to you.

    Is Brexit done in terms of the arguments for it proven?
    Is brexit done in terms of the argument is won?
    Is brexit done in terms of it is history, the country has moved on?

    In terms of the political slogan “brexit is done” the answers are NO, NO, and NO.

    You are wheeling out the thin textbook version to try to disguise the elephant in the room here. You can’t see the elephant in the room because your Ostrich head is in the sand.

    We are exactly where we we’re in 2016 in terms of the arguments the same, nothing proven, the current brexit deal can be quite dramatically altered and still be brexit. And the voting blocs in last weeks local elections in England were still remainer v leavers the country has not moved on and put this in the past.

    Not one of those three questions I asked defining the political slogan version of Brexit is done can be answered yes?

    In this “political slogan” interpretation of “brexit is done” you surely agree with me, brexit isn’t done?
    Was walking the dog. Ask the public, not PB, if Brexit is done. Its not a thin definition.

    The arguments over right/wrong and all the rest will go on for decades. You don't know and I don't know how it will all turn out. Right now, the version we have chosen, looks poor. A future government may change that.

    Your assertions are pointless - people argue about historical events forever.

    And yes, the country has moved on, narrow, geeky, political obsessed wonks like us, have not.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    MaxPB said:

    Maybe not even Pakistani, there's often a mistake made to lump both Bangladeshi and Pakistani Muslims together but they are two distinct cultures which is why a victory in Tower Hamlets doesn't necessarily translate to a victory in Bradford.
    It's not even clear that devout religion is anything to do with it, as opposed to NI-style sectarian shenanigans.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    That’s not the offer, though.
    Co-operation is just code for "do what we say".
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,340

    I would add that the electoral maths suggested that any reasonable Brexit could only be passed with cross-party support.

    Theresa was not willing to reach out beyond her own party, and did not have the confidence to believe that such a solution might be in turn be rewarded electorally.
    That was her other problem- the double lock.

    Any Brexit proposal had to have a majority in her party (so she couldn't be VONC'd) and Parliament as a whole (to get into law). With the numbers she had, not easy and maybe impossible.

    She played her cards badly, but it was a poor hand with opponents on both sides gunning for her.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    MaxPB said:

    Co-operation is just code for "do what we say".
    Jim Hacker: He's got to learn to co-operate.

    Bernard Woolley: What do you mean co-operate?

    Jim Hacker: I mean obey my commands. That's what co-operate means when you're Prime Minister.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    To be fair to Dan, the last couple of weeks were meant to be when he broke the big stories that showed he was a real journalist. The scandals that brought down a party leader.

    And it's all going pearshaped.
    I feel like he pushed the story against his better judgement. One feels like he is trying - with increasing looniness - to demonstrate his loyalty.

    Does the Mail have a new editor?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    There was no Trumpite outrage.

    Only retarded people think that. And Leon, who is not retarded but likes to shit-stir.
    Did you miss 2019's general election? Johnson has an 80 seat majority because the British publics sense of fair play was offended.
    Of course democracy means a second vote would have been democratic. But the public, on the whole, disagreed and wanted the vote honoured as it was set out.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    MaxPB said:

    No, fuck all that noise. Any "offer" from the EU that involves any kind of membership should be rejected out of hand. Anything that binds us to them is a loser for us. Imagine being bound by EU foreign policy objectives. Ukraine would now be part of Russia because the UK would have been bound to EU objectives of a quick ending to the war, rather than doing what's right.
    Nurse!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,548
    MaxPB said:

    Co-operation is just code for "do what we say".
    Possibly, we shall have to see.

    As it is you are dangerously close to the DUP/Spartan philosophy of 'Anything the EU would agree to is something by definition we cannot agree to', meaning no agreements could ever be reached on anything.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    MaxPB said:

    Co-operation is just code for "do what we say".
    Ha, OK.

    I don’t recognise this view of the world.
    I find it barren and futile.

    On a host of issues, including cross-channel migrants, it is right that we co-operate with France.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Roger said:

    Yesterday SKS was given a golden opportunity to show he's a leader and he took it This is his second. The EU can be a big vote winner. He needs to grab it with both hands. Do a Blair. Don't be scared off because the so called Red Wall don't like foreigners. Sell it to them and get the best talent available to help you do it.
    You're Andrew Adonis and I claim my £5
    Do we still do that?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203

    Did you miss 2019's general election? Johnson has an 80 seat majority because the British publics sense of fair play was offended.
    Of course democracy means a second vote would have been democratic. But the public, on the whole, disagreed and wanted the vote honoured as it was set out.

    First, I think that’s a misread of the 2019 election, and second your interpretation doesn’t imply a “Trumpite outrage” anyway.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    kle4 said:

    Possibly, we shall have to see.

    As it is you are dangerously close to the DUP/Spartan philosophy of 'Anything the EU would agree to is something by definition we cannot agree to', meaning no agreements could ever be reached on anything.
    The spartan philosophy of telling them to get fucked for a few years is the only way forwards. The whole farce of negotiations showed why, until that I was still ok with the idea of staying in the single market but it's clear that the EU fears not having any control over the UK and any steps they make will try and achieve wresting back control of the UK. All of their moves are aimed at that, why else grant equivalence to NZ agriculture which is not aligned to the EU but not to the UK which is?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    edited May 2022

    So you need to do a bit of paperwork. Boohoo. So do I for almost anywhere I work in the world. If that is giving you pause for thought then clearly you are not suited for working overseas because take it from me, a bit of paperwork is the least of your problems in most places in the world.
    It's much more than a bit of paperwork. As an example, UK ski instructors and chalet staff who work in EU countries each winter have come unstuck big time. Ski schools and chalet companies must advertise to EU member state citizens for a period of time (not sure how long) and must have unfilled vacancies thereafter before UK citizens can apply for a visa and fill those jobs. This has proved a particular issue for the ski instructors as there is no shortage of local instructors to be hired.

    Edit: it's also meant that UK school ski trips have stopped because the operators the schools use and travel with (and accompanying teachers) count as working bods and therefore require visas now.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,747

    Brexit is partly driven by the desire for old men to moan. You are therefore right that any deal we get won't be good enough for the hardcore Brexiteers, if they gave us everything we listed, they would still have done it offensively somehow. But you are wrong that it can't be good for Britain.
    Do you really think this endless sneering at “old men” and the “gammonazi” and so on and so forth, does you any favours?

    Here’s a tiny, subtle hint: THIS IS ONE REASON YOU LOST YOU STUPID HOPELESS F****

    And why you would lose again. And again. And again. Look at the pathetic spectacle of “Roger” below. It’s risibly sad

    Your entire cause is envenomed with snobbery and a weird quasi-racism.

    The Irish fought to be free, and for a while they were poorer, Ditto the USA. I don’t see either of them clamouring to rejoin the UK. Calling the Irish who wanted independence “stupid thick old Paddies” would not have helped anyone hoping to head off Irish secession

    The best bet is for Remoaners to simply pretend Brexit is like some irreversible Biblical event, for a decade or so, and never mention it. Because when they do mention it they look like the most awful arseholes

    That is honest advice. Freely given. You’re welcome

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    You're Andrew Adonis and I claim my £5
    Do we still do that?
    We haven't for a while, but lets bring it back. I earlier suggested @CorrectHorseBattery might just be Keir Starmer. He has not said he's not, so I'm claiming my £5...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,255

    With respect, you’re talking pish. Unless you have an EU passport, your UK passport will get stamped on entry to and exit from the EU. And if you spend more than 90 days in any 180-day period in the EU, you will be liable to sanction. (Of course if you have a visa for a particular EU country, some of the above may apply differently).

    Nope you are the one talking pish. All you have to be doing is a job that needs doing. Just like anywhere else in the world. Indeed here's a bit of news for you. Post pandemic countries both inside and outside the EU are actually asking for people to come and work in them rather than doing the jobs remotely - which is perfectly doable. They are doing this because it is easier for them to ensure the correct taxes are paid in their country. People doing jobs for big companies from outside the country means their governments are losing tax income so they are encouraging people to work 'in country'. I work in and out of the EU continuously through the year and the only limit on my time is how much work needs to be done.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Leon said:

    Do you really think this endless sneering at “old men” and the “gammonazi” and so on and so forth, does you any favours?

    Here’s a tiny, subtle hint: THIS IS ONE REASON YOU LOST YOU STUPID HOPELESS F****

    And why you would lose again. And again. And again. Look at the pathetic spectacle of “Roger” below. It’s risibly sad

    Your entire cause is envenomed with snobbery and a weird quasi-racism.

    The Irish fought to be free, and for a while they were poorer, Ditto the USA. I don’t see either of them clamouring to rejoin the UK. Calling the Irish who wanted independence “stupid thick old Paddies” would not have helped anyone hoping to head off Irish secession

    The best bet is for Remoaners to simply pretend Brexit is like some irreversible Biblical event, for a decade or so, and never mention it. Because when they do mention it they look like the most awful arseholes

    That is honest advice. Freely given. You’re welcome

    Ha. I haven’t heard “gammonazi” before.

    When were the Americans poorer?
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254

    Did you miss 2019's general election? Johnson has an 80 seat majority because the British publics sense of fair play was offended.
    Of course democracy means a second vote would have been democratic. But the public, on the whole, disagreed and wanted the vote honoured as it was set out.

    More realistically, the British public as divided by parliamentary constituencies disagreed and wanted the vote honoured as it was amended to after the vote had occurred.

    The British public as a whole were broadly evenly divided, and the understanding of Brexit was much narrower in 2019 than 2016.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817

    Ha, OK.

    I don’t recognise this view of the world.
    I find it barren and futile.

    On a host of issues, including cross-channel migrants, it is right that we co-operate with France.
    Then we can do that in a bilateral treaty with France.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,624

    First, I think that’s a misread of the 2019 election, and second your interpretation doesn’t imply a “Trumpite outrage” anyway.
    I think it was a very large part of the vote. If not that, why do you think Johnson won? Just Corbyn?

    And I agree about Trumpite outrage, BTW. Thats far too strong.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    We haven't for a while, but lets bring it back. I earlier suggested @CorrectHorseBattery might just be Keir Starmer. He has not said he's not, so I'm claiming my £5...
    Nah Battery wouldn't have broken lockdown rules like the Integritron
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    You're Andrew Adonis and I claim my £5
    Do we still do that?
    You’re harking back to the days when folk like… oh, I dunno, Antifrank, Plato, Martin Day, Andrea and… er… SeanT were the core of the daily threads. I wonder what happened to them all?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,370
    MrEd said:

    Wait until Aspire goes national, which it will off the back of what it did with Tower Hamlets.
    How many non-Muslim voters does Aspire attract? And don't forget that Muslims are only about 5.5% of voters across the UK.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    Stocky said:

    It's much more than a bit of paperwork. As an example, UK ski instructors and chalet staff who work in EU countries each winter have come unstuck big time. Ski schools and chalet companies must advertise to EU member state citizens for a period of time (not sure how long) and must have unfilled vacancies thereafter before UK citizens can apply for a visa and fill those jobs. This has proved a particular issue for the ski instructors as there is no shortage of local instructors to be hired.
    Tyndall seems to think that his personal frustrations in trying to import miniature lead zulus must be experienced by everyone.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,979
    edited May 2022

    Was walking the dog. Ask the public, not PB, if Brexit is done. Its not a thin definition.

    The arguments over right/wrong and all the rest will go on for decades. You don't know and I don't know how it will all turn out. Right now, the version we have chosen, looks poor. A future government may change that.

    Your assertions are pointless - people argue about historical events forever.

    And yes, the country has moved on, narrow, geeky, political obsessed wonks like us, have not.
    In a very narrow sense Brexit is 'done'. Although, ironically, by that definition Boris shouldn't claim any credit for it whatsoever as all that was required was invoking Article 50 (which he didn't even do). In reality there are still huge questions to ask and huge problems to solve. And Rees-Mogg's 'It'll all just turn out right in fifty years' doesn't cut it one iota.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,203
    edited May 2022

    I think it was a very large part of the vote. If not that, why do you think Johnson won? Just Corbyn?

    And I agree about Trumpite outrage, BTW. Thats far too strong.
    My read is:

    1. Corbyn
    2. To end the “deadlock”
    3. To honour the vote (by getting it done)

    I’m not sure what order I’d put them in, but all three were potently in the mix.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,254
    Leon said:

    Do you really think this endless sneering at “old men” and the “gammonazi” and so on and so forth, does you any favours?

    Here’s a tiny, subtle hint: THIS IS ONE REASON YOU LOST YOU STUPID HOPELESS F****

    And why you would lose again. And again. And again. Look at the pathetic spectacle of “Roger” below. It’s risibly sad

    Your entire cause is envenomed with snobbery and a weird quasi-racism.

    The Irish fought to be free, and for a while they were poorer, Ditto the USA. I don’t see either of them clamouring to rejoin the UK. Calling the Irish who wanted independence “stupid thick old Paddies” would not have helped anyone hoping to head off Irish secession

    The best bet is for Remoaners to simply pretend Brexit is like some irreversible Biblical event, for a decade or so, and never mention it. Because when they do mention it they look like the most awful arseholes

    That is honest advice. Freely given. You’re welcome

    Gammon is not a term I like or use, let alone gammonazi, but whatever.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Sean thinks other posters are “sneering”. Lordy.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited May 2022

    You’re harking back to the days when folk like… oh, I dunno, Antifrank, Plato, Martin Day, Andrea and… er… SeanT were the core of the daily threads. I wonder what happened to them all?
    Plato passed away. Dont know about the others.
    Martin used to be a banned word, it took me ages to work out why a pithy post (it wasnt) about Martine maccutcheon wasn't allowed
This discussion has been closed.