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Is the FT right about Beergate giving Starmer a boost? – politicalbetting.com

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  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,744
    Sandpit said:

    That’s really cool, thanks for posting.
    And it explains the importance of this, which wasn't entirely clear at the time:
    A week ago, ~40,000 SATCOM terminals were knocked out in Ukraine and other European countries. I just published a technical analysis of that incident, based on the information publicly available and my experience in that field.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    edited May 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Well move then if you hate this country and its government so much.

    The fact you and Heathener think there are 100 countries better than the UK, when the UK is well above global average income, wealth, life expectancy and PISA education ranking says it all!
    Foxy didn't say 100 were better. He said he could happily live in that many but preferred to live here. Which if anything is the opposite of Heathener who is keen to live elsewhere.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204

    Forget Beergate.

    The only story the papers are going to cover over the next few days is the Wagatha Christie case which starts today.

    I hate myself that I am so invested in this story.

    Read it is going to cost £3 million in legal fees.

    What do you mean "starts today"? I thought we'd been hearing about it for months, if not years. Has it really only just got to court?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,594
    Scott_xP said:

    So @thetimes reporting Liz Truss to scrap Northern Ireland protocol - or at least parts of it - next week. This will trigger retaliation from EU which could make relations v difficult. EU likely to launch legal action against and suspend co-operation with UK on most issues ..
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1523930984261033985

    Of course - got to respond to the drubbing in the locals somehow, time to break out the Brexit greatest hits.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    ...and in other less serious news. In a bid for post- Johnsonian ownership of the Conservative Party, Liz Truss is preparing to tear up the NI Protocol, putting the UK in a cold-was with Europe and a potentially hotter one on the Streets of Northern Ireland.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,744

    Forget Beergate.

    The only story the papers are going to cover over the next few days is the Wagatha Christie case which starts today.

    I hate myself that I am so invested in this story.

    Read it is going to cost £3 million in legal fees.

    Using the courts system for light entertainment like this is moderately repulsive.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073

    ...and in other less serious news. In a bid for post- Johnsonian ownership of the Conservative Party, Liz Truss is preparing to tear up the NI Protocol, putting the UK in a cold-was with Europe and a potentially hotter one on the Streets of Northern Ireland.

    Well if she does that will at least put the DUP back in the Tory camp if a hung parliament at the next general election
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674

    What do you mean "starts today"? I thought we'd been hearing about it for months, if not years. Has it really only just got to court?
    The full case starts today, everything else pre case stuff in the hope mediation works.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,364
    Scott_xP said:

    So @thetimes reporting Liz Truss to scrap Northern Ireland protocol - or at least parts of it - next week. This will trigger retaliation from EU which could make relations v difficult. EU likely to launch legal action against and suspend co-operation with UK on most issues ..
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1523930984261033985

    Though if it requires legislation that wasn't in the manifesto (which I think is one version of the story), won't that take ages? Given a chance, the Lords are bound to delay it.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,637

    Yes I wouldn't say 100. Maybe 10-20? The UN's Human Development Index ranks the UK at #13 which seems about right although their precise ranking wouldn't be exactly the same as mine.
    Personally - I think it's difficult to live in a country where you don't speak the language/can't communicate comfortably with most people. Japan is I am sure lovely, but I can't imagine enjoying moving there and spending probably multiple years unable to speak with most people beyond pointing and gesturing.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    HYUFD said:

    Well if she does that will at least put the DUP back in the Tory camp if a hung parliament at the next general election
    Which is, of course, the most important thing.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2022

    The full case starts today, everything else pre case stuff in the hope mediation works.
    you would have thought somebody sensible would have in the pre case mediation persuaded the parties to just "you know forget it?"

    Can you imagine the unlucky judge having to listen to "so she said----" "so i tweeted that she was a f****** b****" and then she said ------"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    I thought the author said that wasn't the case.
    She has, but the similarities are uncanny.

    Boris Johnson fits the Daniel Cleaver playbook.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    HYUFD said:

    Well if she does that will at least put the DUP back in the Tory camp if a hung parliament at the next general election
    Phew
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    "Truss will argue that the election results in Northern Ireland give the negotiations a fresh sense of urgency because the Democratic Unionist party has said it will boycott any participation in a new government at Stormont until the issue is resolved."

    Falling to second and shedding hundreds of thousands of votes means their programme must be implemented.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    dixiedean said:

    Which is, of course, the most important thing.
    Ever so much, much more important than anything else, like the UK [sic] economy, future relations with Ireland and Europe, the farmers and fishers sold out to overseas agribusiness ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    dixiedean said:

    "Truss will argue that the election results in Northern Ireland give the negotiations a fresh sense of urgency because the Democratic Unionist party has said it will boycott any participation in a new government at Stormont until the issue is resolved."

    Falling to second and shedding hundreds of thousands of votes means their programme must be implemented.

    40% voted for Unionist parties
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Farooq said:

    Do you even bother to read the posts you reply to?
    No. He can't compute anything that isn't his output. Like his repeated assertions yesterday that the state of Northern Ireland existed pre-1923, even in mediaeval times.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 29,849
    moonshine said:

    All this stuff about Starmer being “principled” makes me want to be sick in my mouth. This is the guy who more than anyone else tried to overturn a democratic vote because he thought be was better than the voters. When it came to the pandemic, all he wanted to do was make political capital by calling the government reckless for not locking down harder and longer. And all the while he too was floating the rules. He’s a sanctimonious expletive.

    Giggles at the "tried to overturn a democratic vote". Ever heard of elections? That "sovereignty" so preciously held by so many leavers is the absolute power of the Commons not to be bound by its predecessors. So the 2017 parliament was free to do whatever it liked and overturn any law or decision it chose.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    rkrkrk said:

    Personally - I think it's difficult to live in a country where you don't speak the language/can't communicate comfortably with most people. Japan is I am sure lovely, but I can't imagine enjoying moving there and spending probably multiple years unable to speak with most people beyond pointing and gesturing.
    You'd pick it up in much less time with a little effort. Months.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    40% voted for Unionist parties
    Minority. Lost.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I thought it was the Daily Star.
    Vous avez comme d'habitude raison.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    you would have thought somebody sensible would have in the pre case mediation persuaded the parties to just "you know forget it?"
    Sadly you can't make people settle trivial cases. What can and should happen is that the case should be transferred to be heard at a County Court at Scunthorpe or somewhere, and placed in the hands of minor local judge sitting as a judge of the High Court. Courts should act to reflect the real gravity of cases and discourage grandstanding.

    With witnesses waiting years for jury trials this is a scandal of wasted resource.

  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    dixiedean said:

    You'd pick it up in much less time with a little effort. Months.
    i lived in France for seven months in my late teens( when brains are supposed to be like sponges) and despite trying struggled to get beyond basic conversation.As an adult you want to converse in language beyond the level of a 6 year old so agree that language is hard to pick up and you will not enjoy living somewhere you cannot speak it really well
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    dixiedean said:

    "Truss will argue that the election results in Northern Ireland give the negotiations a fresh sense of urgency because the Democratic Unionist party has said it will boycott any participation in a new government at Stormont until the issue is resolved."

    Falling to second and shedding hundreds of thousands of votes means their programme must be implemented.

    So basically the party which pushed for a hard Brexit is boycotting the assembly and holding NI to ransom because of the impact of that hard Brexit .

    There is a clear majority in the assembly which supports the protocol which is being totally ignored by no 10.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,405
    rkrkrk said:

    Personally - I think it's difficult to live in a country where you don't speak the language/can't communicate comfortably with most people. Japan is I am sure lovely, but I can't imagine enjoying moving there and spending probably multiple years unable to speak with most people beyond pointing and gesturing.
    Yes there is a difference between the list of countries that are objectively better than the UK and the list of countries I personally could imagine moving to and building my life in. And at this stage of my life the second list is a lot shorter than it would have been when I was in my twenties, say. I have lived abroad twice, for three years in my early twenties and for five years in my early thirties, in both cases in pretty nice countries, and in both cases I moved back to the UK. So I suppose there must be something about the place that I like!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    nico679 said:

    So basically the party which pushed for a hard Brexit is boycotting the assembly and holding NI to ransom because of the impact of that hard Brexit .

    There is a clear majority in the assembly which supports the protocol which is being totally ignored by no 10.
    And HYUFD. Tant pis for democracy.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    edited May 2022
    tlg86 said:

    Well if Starmer ends up in a similar position and rides it out, good luck to him. Quite how much damage it would do to him, I don't know. Here's what Starmer had to say after the Durham statement was issued:

    https://twitter.com/Keir_Starmer/status/1266034795173367808


    Keir Starmer
    @Keir_Starmer
    Boris Johnson should have drawn a line under the Dominic Cummings saga but was too weak to act.

    The public have sacrificed so much for the health of our nation - which he's now undermined.

    And sent a message that there's one rule for them and another for the British people.
    Thats why the video getting so much air time is bad for Starmer. He might not get a FPN on a technicality but in April 2021 people were not having a beer inside with 15 work colleagues at 9pm. There were no work events like that. Even in my office where we were not over zealous on Covid rules, when people got up from their desks they were required to wear masks to walk round the office. In office meetings people sat 2 metres apart and wore masks and we certainly did not have indoor meetings with people from other companies, everything was on Teams and mainly still is.

    Its like me going for an afternoon meeting at a Council and at 6pm we stop for food & alcohol and just mingle as if it was 2019.

    Labours excuse that someone was sending a Whatsapp message at 1am proves that the work event continued until the early hours so it is perfectly legal is bizarre. In sure the Covid rules were not written to enable you to be able to do anything as long as you were working before and after.

    Im sure the police will ask SKS what time he got back to his hotel

  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204
    Carnyx said:

    No. He can't compute anything that isn't his output. Like his repeated assertions yesterday that the state of Northern Ireland existed pre-1923, even in mediaeval times.
    To be fair, it has long been part of the nationalist case that Ulster existed; their complaint was and is that Ulster was carved up 100 years ago.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 34,573

    you would have thought somebody sensible would have in the pre case mediation persuaded the parties to just "you know forget it?"

    Can you imagine the unlucky judge having to listen to "so she said----" "so i tweeted that she was a f****** b****" and then she said ------"
    I thought that someone had tried, quite hard, to 'mediate', but one of them at least insisted on their day in Court.

    While I'm sorry for the judge, as someone else said, but it's blocking off a court which could be used for several criminal trials.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,630

    So now they are treating the Durham 15 (to 30) differently to anyone else. Consistency reigns.
    But thats exactly what the met have done. If they had attended the birthday party in person, I suspect they would have said 'on your way chaps, cant do this at the moment'. And that might have been an end to it. As far as I can see the only people being pursued for historic breaches of covid regs are those in No 10 and now those at the Durham campaign event. No students. No old ladies getting a cheeky G and T one night. No companies who crossed a line from work into social.
    No one.

    None of this should be investigated and ALL such fines (including those from the time) should be quashed and repaid.

    The laws were bad law. No-one knew at the time what you could and couldn't do. Especially the police. Especially stazi-like Derbyshire police.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    No. He can't compute anything that isn't his output. Like his repeated assertions yesterday that the state of Northern Ireland existed pre-1923, even in mediaeval times.
    Ulster existed as part of Ireland with the English monarch as its head of state and Lord for centuries
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    Farooq said:

    Ooh, I'm sad that I missed that nugget. I imagine he quickly saw his error, backed down, and thanked the people who had pointed out his honest mistake?
    In fact, all his assertions that the UK existed pre-1923 and as far back as 1200-ish. As he was clearly implying in its current form (by claiming some sort of peculiary legitimacy through age), this was not on at all. I did let him off ther 1955 date (annexation of Rockall) as I was feeling kind and as it is just as likely to be Irish anyway.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103
    Sandpit said:

    It would be useful to see some actual statistics for people fined under the Covid legislation for socialising.

    I’m going to take a guess that it was a few rebellious students, a few weddings that just added the fine to the cost, a handful of high-profile cases such as Kay Burley and the singer who had birthday parties - and the rest are the politically-motivated complaints in the news at the moment.

    Yes, with hindsight the law as written was probably not brilliant, but I have a lot of sympathy with those working in the legislature and government departments during the pandemic, who were genuinely trying to do the right thing.
    PMSL, especially the ones funnelling public money to their chums via bent contracts and VIP lanes. It was open house on who could grab the most public cash, they thought they were in a gameshow.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    nico679 said:

    So basically the party which pushed for a hard Brexit is boycotting the assembly and holding NI to ransom because of the impact of that hard Brexit .

    There is a clear majority in the assembly which supports the protocol which is being totally ignored by no 10.
    No, if it was being totally ignored by No 10 Johnson and Truss would simply move the hard border from the Irish Sea to Ireland and the border with the Republic.

    Instead they want to minimise the border for both
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Ulster existed as part of Ireland with the English monarch as its head of state and Lord for centuries
    But Northern Ireland is not Ulster. And you always said "Northern Ireland". You can't say "Persian Gulf" and then turn around and say you were talking about the Bight of Benin.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,103

    Fully cooperating by lying about the presence of Angela Rayner for 4 months?
    Fruitcakes out and about now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    To be fair, it has long been part of the nationalist case that Ulster existed; their complaint was and is that Ulster was carved up 100 years ago.
    Ulaidh certainly was, but it's not the same thing as NI.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,280
    I like Susie's word today

    @susie_dent
    Word of the day is ‘ipsedixitism’ (19th century): the insistence that something is ‘fact’ because someone else said so.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204
    Carnyx said:

    Ulaidh certainly was, but it's not the same thing as NI.
    Yes, and as I just said, that is part of the nationalist case.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,744
    Nigelb said:

    And it explains the importance of this, which wasn't entirely clear at the time:
    A week ago, ~40,000 SATCOM terminals were knocked out in Ukraine and other European countries. I just published a technical analysis of that incident, based on the information publicly available and my experience in that field.
    And, of course, the importance of Musk's Starlink donations, which have a significance way beyond just PR.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    IshmaelZ said:

    Vous avez comme d'habitude raison.
    I’m always right, fact.

    I could never make a mistake, that is simply unpossible.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    Minority. Lost.
    More seats than the Nationalists won, 37 to 36
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    moonshine said:

    All this stuff about Starmer being “principled” makes me want to be sick in my mouth. This is the guy who more than anyone else tried to overturn a democratic vote because he thought be was better than the voters. When it came to the pandemic, all he wanted to do was make political capital by calling the government reckless for not locking down harder and longer. And all the while he too was floating the rules. He’s a sanctimonious expletive.

    He wanted to rerun what turns out to have been a vote compromised by Russia, and their UK based political partners, which wasn't binding anyway.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    Yes, and as I just said, that is part of the nationalist case.
    Indeed, but it's also elementary geography and history.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942

    i lived in France for seven months in my late teens( when brains are supposed to be like sponges) and despite trying struggled to get beyond basic conversation.As an adult you want to converse in language beyond the level of a 6 year old so agree that language is hard to pick up and you will not enjoy living somewhere you cannot speak it really well
    Fair enough. I found Chinese much easier to pick up than that. Maybe that's just me. Or perhaps it's just an easier language to reach a baseline of communicative competence.
    Helps most aren't speaking it as a first language either I suppose.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    But Northern Ireland is not Ulster. And you always said "Northern Ireland". You can't say "Persian Gulf" and then turn around and say you were talking about the Bight of Benin.
    It is most of it and the English monarch was head of state of Ulster and Ireland for centuries before Northern Ireland was created too
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    More seats than the Nationalists won, 37 to 36
    Not a majority. And you have been insisting on going by the rules. Which say that that means zero, silch, nada. If yoru side is losing at soccer you can't suddenly cdecide to play the Wall Game rules instead.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    It is most of it and the English monarch was head of state of Ulster and Ireland for centuries before Northern Ireland was created too
    But you weren't talking about Ulster. That sort of error is like saying that England is the UK because it's sort of most of it. Incredibly sloppy particularly in historical discussion.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204
    Re Northern Ireland. I cannot share what seems to be the popular anxiety, or excitement, depending on your view, that Sinn Fein taking over in Stormont will lead to the reunification of Ireland and the breakup of the United Kingdom. I suspect Michelle O'Neill will not go near a border poll until she is confident of winning. Probably also the big prize for Sinn Fein is the government of Ireland.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    edited May 2022
    Carnyx said:

    Not a majority. And you have been insisting on going by the rules. Which say that that means zero, silch, nada. If yoru side is losing at soccer you can't suddenly cdecide to play the Wall Game rules instead.
    More than the Nationalists which is enough.

    There is no majority for imposing a hard border in Ireland which the government could have tried. There certainly is enough support to try and remove the Irish Sea border which the UK government will do.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    More than the Nationalists which is enough.

    There is no majority for imposing a hard border in Ireland which the government could have tried. Their certainly is enough support to try and remove the Irish Sea border which the UK government will do.

    Not according to the rules, which suddenly you reject becauyse they've produced a result you don't like.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    edited May 2022
    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Nigelb said:

    And, of course, the importance of Musk's Starlink donations, which have a significance way beyond just PR.
    A significance, the magnitude of which wasn’t readily apparent at the time.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    The Titanic.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople

    £1bn of improvements to Manchester city centre?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,220
    edited May 2022

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople

    NLAW and Starstreak

    Yes kids - Northern Ireland is *exporting* weapons.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    But you weren't talking about Ulster. That sort of error is like saying that England is the UK because it's sort of most of it. Incredibly sloppy particularly in historical discussion.
    Nope you wrongly suggested that Northern Ireland suddenly got the UK head of state in 1923 yesterday, when it had had the UK and English monarch as head of state for centuries
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,677
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    You'd pick it up in much less time with a little effort. Months.
    I think that's right. I lived abroad for 30 years (mostly Denmark and Switzerland, with a bit of US and Austria). Some expats determinedly set out not to integrate and spent their evenings in English pubs watching videos of football and playing snooker together. some went the whole hog and eventually took local nationality. But most compromised, gathering local friends who spoke English (possible almost everywhere in the world now) and gradually picking up the local language and venturing into areas of common interests - walking, playing bridge - where fluency in the language wasn't too important.

    With that background, I'm inclined to feel that the country we live in isn't really as important as we think. There are strong ties to the home country, both habit and common frames of reference, as well as (usually) existing family and friends. But you're an interesting addition to any other country and local people with generally welcome you if you're willing to make the effort. In the end the key factor is your own personality and open-mindedness. Objectively, Scandianiavia is IMO a nicer place (higher standard of living and on the whole fewer social strains), but I can imagine being happy anywhere if the conditions weren't too desperate (i.e. not Libya, Chad, Ukraine...).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204
    Carnyx said:

    Indeed, but it's also elementary geography and history.
    It is politics.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    In London it turns out there was a small swing from Labour to the Conservatives in a surprising number of boroughs (in terms of the popular vote compared to 2018). For example, Merton, Brent, Hounslow, in addition to Harrow and Croydon.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073

    Re Northern Ireland. I cannot share what seems to be the popular anxiety, or excitement, depending on your view, that Sinn Fein taking over in Stormont will lead to the reunification of Ireland and the breakup of the United Kingdom. I suspect Michelle O'Neill will not go near a border poll until she is confident of winning. Probably also the big prize for Sinn Fein is the government of Ireland.

    Plus the Northern Ireland Secretary has made clear there are no grounds for a border poll either
  • Scott_xP said:

    So @thetimes reporting Liz Truss to scrap Northern Ireland protocol - or at least parts of it - next week. This will trigger retaliation from EU which could make relations v difficult. EU likely to launch legal action against and suspend co-operation with UK on most issues ..
    https://twitter.com/sima_kotecha/status/1523930984261033985

    In Truss we Trust.

    Liz for PM. 👍
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople

    Taking away instinctive unionists like HYFUD and those with family links to Northern Ireland, it’s not clear that anyone in England would much care either way if it stayed in the union or not. More complex in Scotland I guess, a 52-48 outcome in such a vote there?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Nope you wrongly suggested that Northern Ireland suddenly got the UK head of state in 1923 yesterday, when it had had the UK and English monarch as head of state for centuries
    No, yfou suggested that the NI border existed before that. Which is utter nonsense that anyone with a history o level would be able to spot. Think about what you are saying when you talk about the UK - it is date contingent.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,807
    tlg86 said:

    Piece of piss...

    Wordle 325 3/6

    ⬛⬛⬛⬛⬛
    🟨🟨⬛🟨⬛
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩


    Meh!


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Andy_JS said:

    In London it turns out there was a small swing from Labour to the Conservatives in a surprising number of boroughs (in terms of the popular vote compared to 2018). For example, Merton, Brent, Hounslow, in addition to Harrow and Croydon.

    Yes but apart from Harrow unfortunately Labour still won most of them. The biggest swing to Labour was in posh parts of Central London though certainly
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    HYUFD said:

    Plus the Northern Ireland Secretary has made clear there are no grounds for a border poll either
    In his opinion, which has nothing to do with fact, or will for a very long time even if there a majority to have a vote as you and the Tories show very well with Scotland.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 30,204

    In Truss we Trust.

    Liz for PM. 👍
    Liz for PM might be advised to do her own thinking on the Northern Ireland protocol rather than slavishly follow a Prime Minister not known for rigorous analysis. If she wants to be PM herself.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2022
    dixiedean said:

    Fair enough. I found Chinese much easier to pick up than that. Maybe that's just me. Or perhaps it's just an easier language to reach a baseline of communicative competence.
    Helps most aren't speaking it as a first language either I suppose.
    Luckily when I was "lost in France" it was Italia 90 time so did not really need to understand much when watching football on the tele Canal 1 although French commentary kept referring to Gary Line-e-ker . The only other thing I could understand was Benny Hill which they had on Sunday evenings and which I and this old french lady used to gather to watch and chuckle (I lived in a hostel for young workers which shared a communal television room with a old peoples home)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620

    NLAW and Starstreak

    Yes kids - Northern Ireland is *exporting* weapons.
    Stirling bombers, not admittedly the best RAF aircraft of their time. Sunderland flying boats. The Short Sperrin.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    edited May 2022

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople

    Rory McIlroy, James Nesbitt, Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan. Plus plenty of UK patriots and a Tory government to keep out Corbyn in 2017 via the DUP
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 24,277

    My solution to solve the Northern Ireland protocol.

    A plebiscite in Britain on whether we want to keep Northern Ireland or not.

    I mean what has Northern Ireland ever given us except bigotry and terrorism?

    #WillOfThePeople

    I was going to say Game of Thrones, but then realised that is bigotry and terrorism too......
  • Carnyx said:

    Minority. Lost.
    They have a stupid PR based power sharing system, so no they didn't lose. They won the Deputy First Minister's job and a role in the government.

    If you want to argue that PR is stupid and that the election winners ought to be able to ignore secondary parties then please be my guest.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 121,674
    moonshine said:

    Taking away instinctive unionists like HYFUD and those with family links to Northern Ireland, it’s not clear that anyone in England would much care either way if it stayed in the union or not. More complex in Scotland I guess, a 52-48 outcome in such a vote there?
    2019

    Nothing is sacred now as the Conservative Party membership seeks to secure Brexit – except keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10

    Over the last three years Brexit has turned British politics upside down, and perhaps no institution has been hit harder than the Conservative Party. The issue has forced two successive Tory Prime Ministers out of office and spurred the creation of a new party of the right which is currently beating the Conservatives in the polls.

    Now a new YouGov survey of Conservative Party members reveals just how much Brexit has changed the mood of the membership, subverting traditional loyalties and reshaping political priorities.

    So dedicated to accomplishing Brexit are Tory members that a majority (54%) would be willing to countenance the destruction of their own party if necessary. Only a third (36%) put the party’s preservation above steering Britain out of the EU.

    Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

    2020

    Brits increasingly don’t care whether Northern Ireland remains in UK

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/04/22/brits-increasingly-dont-care-whether-northern-irel
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    HYUFD said:

    Considerably longer, unemployment is still half the level Labour left in 2010 and the number of good schools is also up.

    Plus if Foxy and Heathener left that would be 2 less non Tory voters to worry about too
    The dynamic of full employment is somewhat different to ten years ago. The "white heat of technology" has given way to "would you like a shot of caramel in your coffee" and " don't bother coming in today you are not needed, you are needed Friday, so don't be late".
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,538
    Leon said:


    Meh!


    I assume you've visited it.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,279
    Leon said:


    Meh!


    Got it in two
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    In his opinion, which has nothing to do with fact, or will for a very long time even if there a majority to have a vote as you and the Tories show very well with Scotland.
    The final say is down to the Northern Ireland Secretary so tough and we will continue to refuse indyref2 as long as we are in power too
  • HYUFD said:

    Rory McIlroy, James Nesbitt, Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan. Plus plenty of UK patriots and a Tory government to keep out Corbyn in 2017 via the DUP
    Your last one is categorically wrong.

    Had it not been for Northern Ireland, then Theresa May would have won an outright majority at the election.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,220
    Sandpit said:

    A significance, the magnitude of which wasn’t readily apparent at the time.
    Interesting - the idea of a system that generates a target list, and then works backwards to "book" assets for a TOT attack has been around for a while. As power point presentations. The Ukrainians will be selling that to a few people....

    Sound like they really learnt their lesson in 2014 about static batteries.

    Can the UK please buy something like Archer? rather than piddling around with "upgrades" for AS90...
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814
    HYUFD said:

    Rory McIlroy, James Nesbitt, Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan. Plus plenty of UK patriots and a Tory government to keep out Corbyn in 2017 via the DUP
    This is the same Rory McIroy that represented Ireland at the Tokyo Olympics?
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Andy_JS said:

    In London it turns out there was a small swing from Labour to the Conservatives in a surprising number of boroughs (in terms of the popular vote compared to 2018). For example, Merton, Brent, Hounslow, in addition to Harrow and Croydon.

    In yesterdays GE poll Labour were on 39% yet they only got 35% at the LE last week. Its pretty unusual for an oppostion party to do worse in a LE than their GE polling position.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073

    In yesterdays GE poll Labour were on 39% yet they only got 35% at the LE last week. Its pretty unusual for an oppostion party to do worse in a LE than their GE polling position.
    The LDs always poll higher in locals
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022

    Interesting - the idea of a system that generates a target list, and then works backwards to "book" assets for a TOT attack has been around for a while. As power point presentations. The Ukrainians will be selling that to a few people....

    Sound like they really learnt their lesson in 2014 about static batteries.

    Can the UK please buy something like Archer? rather than piddling around with "upgrades" for AS90...
    Indeed, it does seem to be rather a good system. Maybe the Ukrainians will licence it to us, in exchange for a few more NLAWs and Stingers?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    moonshine said:

    This is the same Rory McIroy that represented Ireland at the Tokyo Olympics?
    He is still a UK citizen
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,321
    HYUFD said:

    Considerably longer, unemployment is still half the level Labour left in 2010 and the number of good schools is also up.

    Plus if Foxy and Heathener left that would be 2 less non Tory voters to worry about too
    ...mine too, if you hadn't Brexited and ruined my retirement plans.

    In my case, the weather and the litter are the clinchers. Serious events and issues being trivialised by Boris Johnson are problematic, but I guess I am lumbered with that now until I shuffle off the perch.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,850
    edited May 2022

    I think that's right. I lived abroad for 30 years (mostly Denmark and Switzerland, with a bit of US and Austria). Some expats determinedly set out not to integrate and spent their evenings in English pubs watching videos of football and playing snooker together. some went the whole hog and eventually took local nationality. But most compromised, gathering local friends who spoke English (possible almost everywhere in the world now) and gradually picking up the local language and venturing into areas of common interests - walking, playing bridge - where fluency in the language wasn't too important.

    With that background, I'm inclined to feel that the country we live in isn't really as important as we think. There are strong ties to the home country, both habit and common frames of reference, as well as (usually) existing family and friends. But you're an interesting addition to any other country and local people with generally welcome you if you're willing to make the effort. In the end the key factor is your own personality and open-mindedness. Objectively, Scandianiavia is IMO a nicer place (higher standard of living and on the whole fewer social strains), but I can imagine being happy anywhere if the conditions weren't too desperate (i.e. not Libya, Chad, Ukraine...).
    you are obviously really good and natural at languages though. Language learning is a skill and some people have it and some people dont really. Its like saying oh you know if you just practice keepy uppy with a ball you can do it as well as Ronaldo or if you learn enough chess openings you can mix it with Magnus Carlson .
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,220
    Sandpit said:

    Indeed, it does seem to be rather a good system. Maybe the Ukrainians will licence it to us, in exchange for a few more NLAWs and Stingers?
    t would be unusable in UK & US militaries - think of all the middle management that wouldn't be consulted, if automation of targeting got to that level.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,807
    moonshine said:

    All this stuff about Starmer being “principled” makes me want to be sick in my mouth. This is the guy who more than anyone else tried to overturn a democratic vote because he thought be was better than the voters. When it came to the pandemic, all he wanted to do was make political capital by calling the government reckless for not locking down harder and longer. And all the while he too was floating the rules. He’s a sanctimonious expletive.

    Well said. I can see why Boris hates him

    The awful sanctimony is unbearable. Yuk

    And I say that as someone who thinks Boris is a lying fool who should resign this afternoon
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073

    Your last one is categorically wrong.

    Had it not been for Northern Ireland, then Theresa May would have won an outright majority at the election.
    On current polling now the SNP has retaken most SCon seats, without DUP support again the Tories would have near zero chance of forming the next government given the projected hung parliament
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,342
    HYUFD said:

    Rory McIlroy, James Nesbitt, Kenneth Branagh, Jamie Dornan. Plus plenty of UK patriots and a Tory government to keep out Corbyn in 2017 via the DUP
    Are you suggesting Rory, Jimmy, Kenny and Jamie are not UK patriots?

    Tbf various loyalists (including on here) had prolapses when Rory said he’d represent Ireland at the Olympics. Might as well have been smuggling Semtex in his golf bag.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 59,807
    tlg86 said:

    I assume you've visited it.
    I haven’t! Quite keen to go, actually (despite mixed reports from well traveled friends)

    The last big holes on my global travel bucket list are Central Asia, Central America, and the pacific islands. And several big chunks of Africa like this

    Been almost everywhere else
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073

    2019

    Nothing is sacred now as the Conservative Party membership seeks to secure Brexit – except keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10

    Over the last three years Brexit has turned British politics upside down, and perhaps no institution has been hit harder than the Conservative Party. The issue has forced two successive Tory Prime Ministers out of office and spurred the creation of a new party of the right which is currently beating the Conservatives in the polls.

    Now a new YouGov survey of Conservative Party members reveals just how much Brexit has changed the mood of the membership, subverting traditional loyalties and reshaping political priorities.

    So dedicated to accomplishing Brexit are Tory members that a majority (54%) would be willing to countenance the destruction of their own party if necessary. Only a third (36%) put the party’s preservation above steering Britain out of the EU.

    Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

    2020

    Brits increasingly don’t care whether Northern Ireland remains in UK

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/04/22/brits-increasingly-dont-care-whether-northern-irel
    The same polling also showed Conservatives would continue to refuse indyref2 as the government is doing.

    Brexit has been delivered but the government continues to ban indyref2 and is refusing a border poll, so no such choice arises
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,814

    2019

    Nothing is sacred now as the Conservative Party membership seeks to secure Brexit – except keeping Jeremy Corbyn out of Number 10

    Over the last three years Brexit has turned British politics upside down, and perhaps no institution has been hit harder than the Conservative Party. The issue has forced two successive Tory Prime Ministers out of office and spurred the creation of a new party of the right which is currently beating the Conservatives in the polls.

    Now a new YouGov survey of Conservative Party members reveals just how much Brexit has changed the mood of the membership, subverting traditional loyalties and reshaping political priorities.

    So dedicated to accomplishing Brexit are Tory members that a majority (54%) would be willing to countenance the destruction of their own party if necessary. Only a third (36%) put the party’s preservation above steering Britain out of the EU.

    Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye

    2020

    Brits increasingly don’t care whether Northern Ireland remains in UK

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2020/04/22/brits-increasingly-dont-care-whether-northern-irel
    I remember in the 80s after another atrocity, my Irishphile dad saying to the effect of, bugger to Northern Ireland… give it back to Ireland and let them see how they like the bombs going off in Dublin.

    These days in the absence of bombs going off in Britain, the default position of most will be apathy. If and when Ulster goes independent or reunites with the south, there will be miles of column inches about it being a historic humiliation for the English, the final end of empire etc… but in real life no one will care either way.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,557

    But thats exactly what the met have done. If they had attended the birthday party in person, I suspect they would have said 'on your way chaps, cant do this at the moment'. And that might have been an end to it. As far as I can see the only people being pursued for historic breaches of covid regs are those in No 10 and now those at the Durham campaign event. No students. No old ladies getting a cheeky G and T one night. No companies who crossed a line from work into social.
    No one.

    None of this should be investigated and ALL such fines (including those from the time) should be quashed and repaid.

    The laws were bad law. No-one knew at the time what you could and couldn't do. Especially the police. Especially stazi-like Derbyshire police.
    That Derbyshire police had a shiny new drone seemed to go to their heads.....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,342
    Leon said:

    I haven’t! Quite keen to go, actually (despite mixed reports from well traveled friends)

    The last big holes on my global travel bucket list are Central Asia, Central America, and the pacific islands. And several big chunks of Africa like this

    Been almost everywhere else
    But have you ever been to you?
This discussion has been closed.