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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s local By-Election Results
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This week’s local By-Election Results
Castle on Carlisle (Lab Defence)
Result: Labour 364 (38% -4% on 2011), Conservatives 212 (22%), UKIP 208 (22%), Liberal Democrats 112 (12% -22%), Greens 51 (5% -5%)
Labour HOLD with a majority of 152 (16%) on a swing of 13% from Labour to Conservative
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I looked at the numbers again. UKIP did well.
We also have a lot of economists saying this:
Dear Sirs,
As economists and economic commentators we are writing to add our voices to the growing demands for a new relationship between Britain and the European Union and to express our support for an In/Out referendum.
For too long the debate over Britain’s EU membership has been characterised by half-truths and outright fabrications. The wholly misleading claim that millions of jobs would be lost if the UK were to leave the EU has been comprehensively disproven and refuted.
Research shows that British business wants and needs a substantial change in our relationship with the EU. The Prime Minister’s own Red Tape Task Force has warned that EU red tape is holding back job creation and business expansion. However, before thinking about leaving the EU, we must see if the British Government can first secure better terms of membership. But if the negotiations do not deliver, there is nothing to fear from leaving.
The UK’s future prosperity increasingly depends on its ability to trade with the whole world, not just its European neighbours. In 1980 the EU accounted for over 30 per cent of world GDP, today that figure is less than 19 per cent. The share of UK exports to the rest of the EU has fallen by 10 per cent in the last ten years alone. We need to move beyond a 20th Century economic mind set and be free to develop our links with the rising economies outside Europe.
Just as “little Englanders” are wrong to argue for protectionism, so too are “little Europeans” who only focus on Britain’s trade with its next-door neighbours. We need a global vision, a vision that looks beyond the limits of Europe and sees the opportunities that the wider world offers.
(Signed by 20 economists I don't have space to write here)
There won't be a depression. They'll get a recession, but once they figure out they need their own central bank, they'll start growing again - just less than they would inside the UK. The only way they'd get a depression is signing up to the Eurozone.
I somehow think they'd have to and then impose convergence citeria.
Perhaps some people right now fear it's not the time for change?
On the previous post you said: I think that's absolutely right.
While I think that the UK's trading position would not change dramatically, I am similarly unconvinced that much of the EU's "burden" on British business would evaporate, either.
How did they put it?
oh yes " a historic mistake like great depression"
I think all these polls are frankly irrelevant. If the groundwork by YES, supported by government machinery, has done their job properly, a YES majority is almost guaranteed.
I cannot remember any British Local Authority has ever had close to 97% of the population registered. I would think 75% would be lucky. I am not talking about turnout - only registration.
Congratulations to MD on his news.
Wee Jung Eck surrounds himself with sycophants at press conferences.
The SNP try to silence business from pointing out the truth by threats and bluster..... wouldn't want to frighten the horses would we.
and...................
They organise marches to the polling stations ... reminds me of the 1930's
Indyref in the 1066 and All That style ...
It's going to be an interesting week. Could lose 30% of UK's land area, a PM, have a bank run in Scotland, a three centuries old financial industry in Edinburgh could go west before next weekend ( effectively), have a traumatised Labour Party in despair, an insufferable Farage, and Berwick Rangers applying to the FA. Failing that we've just got to work out what Devo Max means ( and for England/Wales/NI ), how many MP's Scotland would retain (25?), and if Ms Sturgeon is going to be a good SNP leader.
Not dull at least.
Interesting piece - and on BBC too to their credit.
With apologies to Harry and the benefit of some local knowledge, a shade more analysis on the Beckton by-election result. The contest was triggered by the sudden death of Alec Kellaway about a month after the May local election. A Labour Councillor friend told me the death was entirely unexpected and a real shock as he had worked hard in the May elections.
Oddly enough, Kellaway came third of the Labour Councillors elected in Beckton where the party polled 64% in May. The Conservatives polled 28% and the Christian People's Alliance got 8%. No other parties contested the seat.
The Conservative candidate for the by-election fought the seat in May and polled some 300 votes more than his colleagues on the Tory ticket and he has some local following.
Yesterday, Labour polled 51% (-13%), Conservatives 30% (+2%), UKIP 11% (+11%) with the Others getting 8% between them - Greens were fourth, Lib Dems fifth, CPA sixth and a TUSC candidate last so oddly enough the same order as in the Mayoral election across the whole Borough in May.
The turnout was a derisory 19% so the 7.5% swing from Conservatives to Labour may not mean as much as it appears. UKIP polled 6% in the Borough-wide Mayoral election in May but on these numbers Stephen Timms has little reason to lose any sleep.
Beckton isn't typical of much of Newham. The extension of the DLR brought a rash of new building in the 1980s and 1990s and many of these new flats were bought up initially by City commuters though many of them are now rental properties. It's a nice commute from Beckton to either Docklands or the City so it has attracted a professional and higher-earning group especially to the new estates around and near the DLR stop.
I understand the Conservatives put quite a bit of effort into this by-election and UKIP were out canvassing as well but the Labour machine in Newham is impressive to view. While other parties struggle to get three or four activists out for an evening's canvassing, Labour mobilise thirty or forty workers and can swamp an area. Breaking Labour's stranglehold on Newham won't happen any time soon.
Don't suppose you could give a critical assessment for once, could you? We've discussed Mr Sillars and the media often enough, so the basics are here on PB.
Moreover, we've been told often enough on PB that the banks would be broken up anyway. And they are publicly owned. So what's new?
What is the most widely read paper in Scotland: Not the Indy, and not quite the DM.
"Got one of those book deal thingummyjigs for Sir Edric's Temple and the follow-up, Sir Edric's Treasure (with Tickety Boo Press). No ETA, but I think next year's possible and 2016 maybe (hoping it's 2015 though)"
If you haven't read Sir Edric's Temple you are missing out on a treat. Sir Edric's Temple is available through Amazon (at a stupidly low price) and I am really looking forward to the follow-up. I have no idea what a "book deal thingummyjigs" actually entails but I hope it means Mr. Dancer making lots of money. He deserves it for the quality of his work.
Oh yes, that Mr Davidson who speaks of bayoneting his opponents.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2753696/Yes-campaigners-march-polling-stations-playing-bagpipes-intimidate-voters-backing-Salmond-s-dream-Scottish-independence.html
This plays into and confirms all of people's worst fears about nationalists and the YES campaign. It's a totem. Which is precisely why it is so toxic for them. It will further turn off women and floating voters.
Right, I have a Friday evening to enjoy with my wife. Goodnight all.
Could he be a leading figure in the Yes campaign perhaps? He has even managed to upstage Wee Patrick
http://www.newsrt.co.uk/news/scottish-independence-salmond-sillars-team-up-2612937.html
Now, I must go. I have much better things to do than argue with dyed in the wool nats. By all means keep up the 'good work'.
2011 England & Wales electorate (ie registered voters) = 40.6 million
2011 England & Wales population = 56.1 million
Don't have figure for children but must be somewhat over 20% of population meaning at an absolute minimum 90% of adults are registered to vote. In reality it will be about 93%.
The government claims that no contingency campaigns in case of a Yes vote have been made, but a government-owned company has very publicly announced its contingency plans.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29185319
Cumbernauld is HMRC's payment centre together with Shipley in Yorkshire. Surprising numbers still pay by cheque. Obviously these payments couldn't be sent to a foreign country either.
http://www.inverclydenow.com/photostream/12852-labour-lose-control-of-council-as-councillor-goes-independent Quite. I suppose that if it weren't Mr Sillars it would be someone else - or just queues in South African polling stations or Norwegian fish. However, people are noticing here too. So I'm just wondering if this approach is as productive vote-wise as it might have seemed.
On passports, the White Paper has proposals - subject of course to confirmation.
A spokeswoman for Chief Counting Officer Mary Pitcaithly said: 'The Chief Counting Officer is responsible for the delivery of the referendum, not for its policing. Any issues which might raise concerns about issues of public order at polling places would be addressed by Police Scotland.'
...
"Police Scotland Assistant Chief Constable Bernard Higgins said: 'The referendum is a significant event which is expected to attract a higher than normal turnout.
'Policing arrangements for the referendum are well in hand and will be appropriate and proportionate.
'Police Scotland's priority is to ensure public safety and security. We will respond appropriately to any issues which arise. We will not offer comment on the numbers of officers or their specific operational deployment.' "
Win or lose, after the referendum they should be looking to mend fences and heal what will be a community that's deeply divided.
One people under Wee Jung Eck
BTW Peter de Vink is a pro-indy Conservative or rather conservative (I think he got the heave-ho or resigned from the Tories) - he's now a councillor on Midlothian Council.
Swings and roundabouts. People in Scotland have their Social Security processed in Newcastle, and their driving licences processed in Swansea, so obviously there will be jobs moving the other way, too.
@SkyNews: FT FRONT PAGE "Businesses face 'day of reckoning'" #skypapers http://t.co/pP2pNOsEF8
I want a No vote because I want Scotland to remain a prosperous part of a Great Nation, and I despair for the economic tragedy that the SNP are willing upon my friends and family, but...
...much of the damage is done.
If there is a No, the bastards will get away with it.
If there is a Yes, they will face a day of reckoning. Cold comfort for millions. but the least they deserve
'Fearing a backlash amongst Catholic voters, who account for about 15 percent of the population in Scotland, the main anti-independence group, Better Together, asked the Orange Order to cancel the march, Wilson said. He says he doesn’t believe the march will prompt Catholics to vote for independence.
“That seems to me to be insulting and shallow,” he said. “In Scotland, we live cheek by jowl. This is not Northern Ireland.”
Wilson said only order members will be allowed to join the parade, and that will ensure they can control it. The parade starts at 11 a.m., and a rally will be addressed by the grand masters of the Irish, Scottish and English Orders.
“There have been suggestions of violence, the temperature is definitely rising and we’ve heard there may well be counter demonstrations,” he said. “I’m fine with that, as long as they are peaceful. We will be telling our people not to be provoked.”'
NOA, shit not you too ?
Do the numbers, 58 million people live in rUK and 5 million in Scotland which way do you think the flow of work will go ?
57,000 jobs in Scotland are UK govt jobs, you'll lose about 90% of them. There's no reason to keep them in Scotland and in some cases there are impediments to doing so.
@journodave: Well, tomorrow's @Daily_Record is certainly not pulling any punches in #indyref http://t.co/sIxMLyFBsW
Rediscovering your inner Gododdin would seem an option then?
Threat of good poll for Yes =panty wetting, quivering lips, snotters
Good poll for Yes = rage, squirrel finding, plucking at straws based on almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics
Lather, rinse, repeat.
And I did point out that his views are not entirely without some resonance, especially with the way things have gone and are going (and academic as to some of the banks).
It won't change any votes, but during the depression when the cries of "why did nobody tell us" are ringing out these words will be quoted often.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
Organisers said the event would be the largest held in Scotland since July 1951..."
http://www.edinburghnews.scotsman.com/news/violence-warning-ahead-of-orange-order-march-1-3539494
Oh yes "traitors" and "your not real Scots"
Amongst others.....
Before anyone gets annoyed at the above, apart from the bit about almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics (true for some, no doubt, though I very much doubt every Yes supporter is as clued in as the most engaged either), TUD is not incorrect, not entirely at any rate. I would contest there was more despondency than rage for good Yes polls, though still some rage.
Birth of a Nation and all that
Edit - there was an Orange Walk next to Hearts stadium, Tynecastle at the beginning of the month.
Why take the blue bits off the Union flag?
It's a nice flag so why change it plus it can represent all the Scottish refugees left in England.