'Will two days of Protestant supremacist imagery on the news bulletins add to that effect? Labour MPs have been sufficiently worried to plead privately with the Orange Order to stand down its march. They can now look forward to a day or so of TV news bulletins showing the union jack in the possession of Ian Paisley, the Orange Order and for good measure, up on a visit tonight, Nigel Farage. Not the grid Better Together would want.' - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/paisleys-death-revives-memories-sectarian-scotland/29141#sthash.VkXxba9k.dpuf
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
I think the SNP could have made THE key mistake of this campaign with their "Day of Reckoning" rhetoric.
Win or lose, after the referendum they should be looking to mend fences and heal what will be a community that's deeply divided.
I am struggling a bit with this one.
I want a No vote because I want Scotland to remain a prosperous part of a Great Nation, and I despair for the economic tragedy that the SNP are willing upon my friends and family, but...
...much of the damage is done.
If there is a No, the bastards will get away with it.
If there is a Yes, they will face a day of reckoning. Cold comfort for millions. but the least they deserve
So in spite of the fact that one way or another close to half of the population may well be voting in favour of Independence next Thursday you would have denied them that right and consider them all to be bastards?
That's a nice democratic position to hold - where even wanting a vote on an issue makes someone a bastard.
I think the SNP could have made THE key mistake of this campaign with their "Day of Reckoning" rhetoric.
Win or lose, after the referendum they should be looking to mend fences and heal what will be a community that's deeply divided.
I am struggling a bit with this one.
I want a No vote because I want Scotland to remain a prosperous part of a Great Nation, and I despair for the economic tragedy that the SNP are willing upon my friends and family, but...
...much of the damage is done.
If there is a No, the bastards will get away with it.
If there is a Yes, they will face a day of reckoning. Cold comfort for millions. but the least they deserve
So in spite of the fact that one way or another close to half of the population may well be voting in favour of Independence next Thursday you would have denied them that right and consider them all to be bastards?
That's a nice democratic position to hold - where even wanting a vote on an issue makes someone a bastard.
Not sure. It's near Swanbister and certainly overlooks Scapa Flow right on the coast. It was simply the graveyard with the best view ( if you know what I mean) I've ever seen. It's near a farm called Waterslap where my great grand parents had a few cows I believe.
"It is striking that the referendum has turned out not to be about certain things: Braveheart, kilts, the saltire, hating Sassenachs, Rabbie Burns, Renton’s rant in Trainspotting about the Scots allowing themselves to be “colonised by wankers”. The language of tribal nationalism is starkly unspoken. For an issue of such moment, the debate has been remarkably civilised and thoughtful. If you’re Irish, you can only look on in admiration and envy: Scotland has the opportunity to acquire independence without murders, without civil wars, without partition, without a toxic bitterness being passed on through generations. There have been a few nasty incidents and there may be more but having an egg thrown at you or being abused on Twitter is not quite like being put against the wall and shot." [...]
"For while it is the Scottish Question that is on the ballot paper, it is the British Question that is really on the table. Alongside the absence of nationalist sentimentality on one side of the argument, there is something equally remarkable on the other: the inability of the no campaign to articulate a coherent, passionate and convincing case for the existing United Kingdom seems, from the outside, quite staggering."
Anyway, goodnight. And looking forward (?) to the next poll, and the next scare do jour.
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
Well spotted. Companies are falling over themselves trying to invest in iEckland.
Not sure. It's near Swanbister and certainly overlooks Scapa Flow right on the coast. It was simply the graveyard with the best view ( if you know what I mean) I've ever seen. It's near a farm called Waterslap where my great grand parents had a few cows I believe.
On checking, it's indeed the next bay along (more or less) from where the Houton ferry terminal (for Hoy) is. Must go and have another Orcadian holiday when the long days return. I'm Lothian and Borders with a strong infusion of Aberdeenshire Doric myself!
I think the SNP could have made THE key mistake of this campaign with their "Day of Reckoning" rhetoric.
Win or lose, after the referendum they should be looking to mend fences and heal what will be a community that's deeply divided.
No, they key mistake of this campaign has been their ineptitude over currency. If they had just said from the beginning they'd aim for a currency union, but if that's not possible they'd use a Scottish pound, then it would have been fine.
Have to agree! Or just say iCurrency is plan A even better. All the uncertainty would have gone.. They still might get away with it though as all the scare stories from Better Together have immunised the voters to genuine fears..
If Jim Sillars is a Nationalist leader I'm a Panda at the Edinburgh Zoo. Utterly discredits the piece within the first three words.
You are right of course, but it's the impression all this is giving when combined with the other pronouncements of Yes. Believe me it looks bloody awful from 400 miles away. Scotland is getting hurt whatever the result and it pains me, I've got friends and relatives there ( I'm pretty certain I could claim a passport myself if there's a Yes due to my family background).
Quite. I suppose that if it weren't Mr Sillars it would be someone else - or just queues in South African polling stations or Norwegian fish. However, people are noticing here too. So I'm just wondering if this approach is as productive vote-wise as it might have seemed.
On passports, the White Paper has proposals - subject of course to confirmation.
What is the passports proposal by the way? My grandad was born in Scotland do I qualify? ( Not that I'm taking it up - just idle curiosity)
Rediscovering your inner Gododdin would seem an option then?
Thank you. Indeed it does, though I'm descended from that lot on my mother's side ( great grand father, who came from Dalbeattie/Kirkcudbright) but my paternal grandfather was born in Stromness in Orkney, so it's less my inner Gododdin than my Eric Blood Axe the Viking ( or whatever name my Norwegian forebear had). I went to Orkney a few years ago and found a graveyard full of my relatives. There was a blue plaque on the local church saying it had been the site of a Viking drinking hall, which I thought was a great place for the relatives to be buried!
small world, my maternal grandfather was also born in Kirkcudbright.
We might be related! Actually I have a friend from university from Ruthin in N Wales whose family goes back there to the year dot. We worked out my great great great grandmother from Ruthin who shared my friend's maiden name was in all likelihood her great great great grandmother too.
Static Indy poll = it's a disaster for Yes, unseemly triumphalism, complacency Threat of good poll for Yes =panty wetting, quivering lips, snotters Good poll for Yes = rage, squirrel finding, plucking at straws based on almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics
Lather, rinse, repeat.
makes you wonder why the vote wasn't 18 months ago to avoid this tedious crap.
You've repeated the tedious crap line so often I assume you must have been in Scotland in the last 18 months. You should have dropped me a line, I'd have bought you a fine Scottish pint with GB pounds.
I was on hols in the borders and Edinburgh last year, but I thought you're West coast no ?
Glasgow, but we do occasionally venture out of the ghetto (or welcome metropolitan sophisticates).
ever go SOTB ?
Only cheap deal visits to London over the last few years. Unfortunately the business I work in is dying on it's arse so subsidised travel is very much off the menu.
'Will two days of Protestant supremacist imagery on the news bulletins add to that effect? Labour MPs have been sufficiently worried to plead privately with the Orange Order to stand down its march. They can now look forward to a day or so of TV news bulletins showing the union jack in the possession of Ian Paisley, the Orange Order and for good measure, up on a visit tonight, Nigel Farage. Not the grid Better Together would want.' - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/paisleys-death-revives-memories-sectarian-scotland/29141#sthash.VkXxba9k.dpuf
Sounds great to me. The orange, the purple, the red white and blue should be part of British patriotism.
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
ROFLMAO
that's it, Scotland is the biggest and richest economy in the world, this time next year you'll be millionaires Mcdelboy.
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
It's a laugh, isn't it? I hope mummy and daddy are taking every precaution for precious wee Dougie's future.
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
Static Indy poll = it's a disaster for Yes, unseemly triumphalism, complacency Threat of good poll for Yes =panty wetting, quivering lips, snotters Good poll for Yes = rage, squirrel finding, plucking at straws based on almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics
Lather, rinse, repeat.
makes you wonder why the vote wasn't 18 months ago to avoid this tedious crap.
You've repeated the tedious crap line so often I assume you must have been in Scotland in the last 18 months. You should have dropped me a line, I'd have bought you a fine Scottish pint with GB pounds.
I was on hols in the borders and Edinburgh last year, but I thought you're West coast no ?
Glasgow, but we do occasionally venture out of the ghetto (or welcome metropolitan sophisticates).
ever go SOTB ?
Only cheap deal visits to London over the last few years. Unfortunately the business I work in is dying on it's arse so subsidised travel is very much off the menu.
sorry to hear that, but it has been years since I;ve been to Glasgow so if I'm up I'll stand you a pint if you're about. I was half thinking of going up forn the Games but work meant I couldn't. Shame.
Not sure. It's near Swanbister and certainly overlooks Scapa Flow right on the coast. It was simply the graveyard with the best view ( if you know what I mean) I've ever seen. It's near a farm called Waterslap where my great grand parents had a few cows I believe.
On checking, it's indeed the next bay along (more or less) from where the Houton ferry terminal (for Hoy) is. Must go and have another Orcadian holiday when the long days return. I'm Lothian and Borders with a strong infusion of Aberdeenshire Doric myself!
We were impressed with Orkney. Really cool place. Loved Maes Howe and the Viking graffiti (the runic "Ingemar is the sexiest girl in Sweden" was great). My dad was offered a place to go back to his uncle's firm in the late 50's but declined, otherwise I might be there now and not in the different world of Cardiff.
If your table is right then the Western Isles are a steal at 8/1 for highest Yes vote at Ladbrokes.
How did you derive your data?
My own personal predictions based on lots of different factors. I'm not that confident about some of the council area forecasts. I was hoping other people would have a go as well so I wouldn't be the only one looking stupid on election night!
The Western Isles are of course largely Gaellic speaking so it seems likely it'll have the highest Yes vote, but there is the slight complication of Protestants and Catholics in that area who might vote differently to each other.
If your table is right then the Western Isles are a steal at 8/1 for highest Yes vote at Ladbrokes.
How did you derive your data?
My own personal predictions based on lots of different factors. I'm not that confident about some of the council area forecasts. I was hoping other people would have a go as well so I wouldn't be the only one looking stupid on election night!
It's more knowledge than I have over the geography of the referendum. I have put a few quid on to keep it interesting.
'Will two days of Protestant supremacist imagery on the news bulletins add to that effect? Labour MPs have been sufficiently worried to plead privately with the Orange Order to stand down its march. They can now look forward to a day or so of TV news bulletins showing the union jack in the possession of Ian Paisley, the Orange Order and for good measure, up on a visit tonight, Nigel Farage. Not the grid Better Together would want.' - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/paisleys-death-revives-memories-sectarian-scotland/29141#sthash.VkXxba9k.dpuf
Sounds great to me. The orange, the purple, the red white and blue should be part of British patriotism.
Perhaps, but in this context, there are 15% of the voters in Scotland to which they are anathema. And the polls are neck and neck.
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
'Will two days of Protestant supremacist imagery on the news bulletins add to that effect? Labour MPs have been sufficiently worried to plead privately with the Orange Order to stand down its march. They can now look forward to a day or so of TV news bulletins showing the union jack in the possession of Ian Paisley, the Orange Order and for good measure, up on a visit tonight, Nigel Farage. Not the grid Better Together would want.' - See more at: http://blogs.channel4.com/gary-gibbon-on-politics/paisleys-death-revives-memories-sectarian-scotland/29141#sthash.VkXxba9k.dpuf
Sounds great to me. The orange, the purple, the red white and blue should be part of British patriotism.
Perhaps, but in this context, there are 15% of the voters in Scotland to which they are anathema. And the polls are neck and neck.
Not a smart move from the bowler-hatted bigots...
They are however pro-British, and appealing to a Protestant British identity that has deep Scottish roots, not to dry economic arguments.
Taking the 1997 referendum as a baseline, and assuming UNS, ignoring electorate and turnout variability, these are the % targets for YES
Na h-Eileanan Siar 55.1 North Lanarkshire 58.3 Inverclyde 53.7 Orkney 33.0 East Lothian 49.9 Perth and Kinross 37.4 Moray 42.9 Clackmannanshire 55.7 West Dunbartonshire 60.4 Dumfries and Galloway 36.4 Angus 40.4 South Lanarkshire 53.5 East Renfrewshire 37.4 Dundee City 51.7 Falkirk 55.7 Renfrewshire 54.7 East Ayrshire 56.8 Aberdeenshire 39.6 Stirling 44.2 Midlothian 55.6 Argyll and Bute 43.0 West Lothian 55.3 South Ayrshire 42.6 Shetland 38.1 East Dunbartonshire 45.5 Fife 51.8 Highland 48.3 North Ayrshire 52.0 Scottish Borders 38.5 City of Edinburgh 47.6 Glasgow City 59.3 Aberdeen City 47.5
SeanT In 1995 in Quebec Yes were now ahead in every poll at this stage, and yet they still lost as undecideds went for No, in Scotland every poll now has a clear No lead, albeit not a large one
I think a pro British message from tomorrow's Proms, and I am attending Proms in the Park and will try and do my bit, will more than drown out any negativity from the Orange Order March, which will be overshadowed by Paisley's death anyway.
SeanT In 1995 in Quebec Yes were now ahead in every poll at this stage, and yet they still lost as undecideds went for No, in Scotland every poll now has a clear No lead, albeit not a large one
Not an encouraging thought, that one. With all the potential risks and emotional pleas to stay, it is neck and neck, and it just seems more likely to me that enough people either optimistic about future prospects even in the face of difficulty, or so angry at whoever they perceive to be the worse establishment, will push Yes over the line.
"EDIT: I wonder if someone has seen either the postal voting, or private polling."
Even if the postal votes for a particular region were improperly known, in a close national contest it's difficult to believe that such information would prove of much value from a betting perspective. As regards "private polling", I fail to see to what degree this would be more reliable than large sample polls carried out by the top professional pollsters.
My own view is that two factors are giving confidence to those betting that there will be a NO outcome - the underestimation in the polling figures of "shy NOs" and the fact that historically in such types of referenda, the late deciding "don't knows" tend to break heavily in favour of the status quo, i.e.against independence. Sticking my neck out, I have a feeling that the NOs will win by a margin of between 7% - 9%, with the result therefore being of the order of 54% - 46%.
I think a pro British message from tomorrow's Proms, and I am attending Proms in the Park and will try and do my bit, will more than drown out any negativity from the Orange Order March, which will be overshadowed by Paisley's death anyway.
Static Indy poll = it's a disaster for Yes, unseemly triumphalism, complacency Threat of good poll for Yes =panty wetting, quivering lips, snotters Good poll for Yes = rage, squirrel finding, plucking at straws based on almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics
Lather, rinse, repeat.
makes you wonder why the vote wasn't 18 months ago to avoid this tedious crap.
You've repeated the tedious crap line so often I assume you must have been in Scotland in the last 18 months. You should have dropped me a line, I'd have bought you a fine Scottish pint with GB pounds.
I was on hols in the borders and Edinburgh last year, but I thought you're West coast no ?
Glasgow, but we do occasionally venture out of the ghetto (or welcome metropolitan sophisticates).
ever go SOTB ?
Only cheap deal visits to London over the last few years. Unfortunately the business I work in is dying on it's arse so subsidised travel is very much off the menu.
kle4 No, Yes need to have a clear lead at this stage to have a chance, the final undecideds almost always stick with the status quo. Last weekend they had a chance had they built on that Yes lead, they did not, in my view a No vote is now probable, though it will probably be tight on the night
Betfair is still utterly convinced it will be NO. I am finding it hard to square this with the polls.
OK up to a week ago, you could have said this was clueless English money: rich London bettors presuming a NO as the alternative seemed unthinkable.
But now everyone knows how tight the polling is, and no one risks these enormous sums without doing a bit of research.
YES has actually moved OUT, to 4.9/5, since the ICM poll.
Weird.
EDIT: I wonder if someone has seen either the postal voting, or private polling.
I can't be arsed to do the maths, but if you make the reasonable assumption that early postal voting has broken for NO, then YES has to be doing somewhat better than neck-and-neck at this stage to get over the finish line.
As a fellow Scot who happens to know folk who work for all these companies, it will be interesting to see their reaction to this threat to their livelihoods!
"If Sir John Randall were to quit his seat, Boris Johnson would be just 4 weeks from becoming an MP, & so qualified to stand for Tory leader 12:16am - 13 Sep 14"
"Huge fire at University of Nottingham campus building site Around 60 firefighters called in to tackle the blaze, with no injuries reported at the Triumph Road property"
Bollocks!! Spinning like a wheel and acting like a rebuttal service for the SNP/Yes campaign is not trying to inject some accuracy into this debate. Please don't insult our intelligence by trying to claim that you are somehow a 'neutral bystander' seeking to add some balance to the debate.
Most posters on this site have a damn sight more integrity than you, and they are happy to be open and honest about nailing their own political leaning to the mast when debating on here, what ever their political persuasions. And as a result, that can often enhance rather undermine their contributions to the site. Two of the best contributors to this site over the years were Libdems, the late SBS and Yellow Submarine. Both much missed, although I know Yellow Submarine has briefly surfaced recently. And lets not forget that OGH is a Libdem too.
And if Jim Sillars is a leading fgure in the SNP I'm a Golden Lion Tamarin at the Zoo and that story is my faeces.
Don't suppose you could give a critical assessment for once, could you? We've discussed Mr Sillars and the media often enough, so the basics are here on PB.
Moreover, we've been told often enough on PB that the banks would be broken up anyway. And they are publicly owned. So what's new?
You're forever telling us the Yes isn't just about the SNP and that you, have no personal affiliation to the SNP but support the broad based Yes campaign. So why are you so eager to distance yourself from Sillars who represents the views of many Yes supporters?
Just trying to inject some accuracy into this debate.
And I did point out that his views are not entirely without some resonance, especially with the way things have gone and are going (and academic as to some of the banks).
"EDIT: I wonder if someone has seen either the postal voting, or private polling."
Even if the postal votes for a particular region were improperly known, in a close national contest it's difficult to believe that such information would prove of much value from a betting perspective. As regards "private polling", I fail to see to what degree this would be more reliable than large sample polls carried out by the top professional pollsters.
My own view is that two factors are giving confidence to those betting that there will be a NO outcome - the underestimation in the polling figures of "shy NOs" and the fact that historically in such types of referenda, the late deciding "don't knows" tend to break heavily in favour of the status quo, i.e.against independence. Sticking my neck out, I have a feeling that the NOs will win by a margin of between 7% - 9%, with the result therefore being of the order of 54% - 46%.
Also the polling isn't really _that_ close. The September polls average out at a 3% lead. That's certainly not a comfortable margin, but you'd be doing quite well to turn around a 3% lead in a two-sided race. https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/510460547067052032
Friday morning is going to be a helluva betting experience, and not for the faint-hearted.
The running total lead could change at least four times. YES could start building a sizeable lead, lose it and continue to fall further behind by an even bigger and increasing margin, only to sneak it with the last two results...
Friday morning is going to be a helluva betting experience, and not for the faint-hearted.
The running total lead could change at least four times. YES could start building a sizeable lead, lose it and continue to fall further behind by an even bigger and increasing margin, only to sneak it with the last two results...
May do a guest article.
Rod, what software are you using for the modelling?
Friday morning is going to be a helluva betting experience, and not for the faint-hearted.
The running total lead could change at least four times. YES could start building a sizeable lead, lose it and continue to fall further behind by an even bigger and increasing margin, only to sneak it with the last two results...
May do a guest article.
Rod, what software are you using for the modelling?
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
Well spotted. Companies are falling over themselves trying to invest in iEckland.
Eck's irrelevant. When the oil revs head to Edinburgh the capital flow will follow. I've seen some patronising pap on this thread but no answer in terms of the facts and stats that back up the narrative. I hollowed out Business for Scotland's case but they were far more formidable opponents than the Tories on here. It really is some pretty inadequate cry-for-comfort-from-nanny bleating. Who would have guessed it would all be so easy? And from a west-coast Irish catholic scumbag schemie Glasgwegian too! The Jedi mind-tricks just don't cut it these days.. Well, looks like it's down to the scumbag Scots to see if they have the nads to take on the financiers. Adieu my Norman serf friends - it was nearly a pleasure Sleep tight.
Friday morning is going to be a helluva betting experience, and not for the faint-hearted.
The running total lead could change at least four times. YES could start building a sizeable lead, lose it and continue to fall further behind by an even bigger and increasing margin, only to sneak it with the last two results...
May do a guest article.
Rod, what software are you using for the modelling?
Is the truth of Scotland's wealth and its role in underpinning the UK economy dawning on international investors?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
Well spotted. Companies are falling over themselves trying to invest in iEckland.
Eck's irrelevant. When the oil revs head to Edinburgh the capital flow will follow. I've seen some patronising pap on this thread but no answer in terms of the facts and stats that back up the narrative. I hollowed out Business for Scotland's case but they were far more formidable opponents than the Tories on here. It really is some pretty inadequate cry-for-comfort-from-nanny bleating. Who would have guessed it would all be so easy? And from a west-coast Irish catholic scumbag schemie Glasgwegian too! The Jedi mind-tricks just don't cut it these days.. Well, looks like it's down to the scumbag Scots to see if they have the nads to take on the financiers. Adieu my Norman serf friends - it was nearly a pleasure Sleep tight.
I'm not really sure who you are talking about. But why is his religion relevant, anyhow?
Or is this referendum just an excuse to divide over anything and everything, irrelevant to the question at hand?
Static Indy poll = it's a disaster for Yes, unseemly triumphalism, complacency Threat of good poll for Yes =panty wetting, quivering lips, snotters Good poll for Yes = rage, squirrel finding, plucking at straws based on almost complete ignorance of Scottish politics
Lather, rinse, repeat.
makes you wonder why the vote wasn't 18 months ago to avoid this tedious crap.
You've repeated the tedious crap line so often I assume you must have been in Scotland in the last 18 months. You should have dropped me a line, I'd have bought you a fine Scottish pint with GB pounds.
I was on hols in the borders and Edinburgh last year, but I thought you're West coast no ?
Glasgow, but we do occasionally venture out of the ghetto (or welcome metropolitan sophisticates).
ever go SOTB ?
Only cheap deal visits to London over the last few years. Unfortunately the business I work in is dying on it's arse so subsidised travel is very much off the menu.
Bollocks!! Spinning like a wheel and acting like a rebuttal service for the SNP/Yes campaign is not trying to inject some accuracy into this debate. Please don't insult our intelligence by trying to claim that you are somehow a 'neutral bystander' seeking to add some balance to the debate.
You seem a little antsy. How's your 35% for Yes prediction looking?
So in spite of the fact that one way or another close to half of the population may well be voting in favour of Independence next Thursday you would have denied them that right and consider them all to be bastards?
No. The bastards I am referring to are Eck and his merry band. If the union survives, they will get off scot free for the wilful damage they have done to it.
It's a nice flag so why change it plus it can represent all the Scottish refugees left in England.
Right. It's not even the Scottish blue any more, seeing as the Saltire changed its shade.
I think we also go for "The United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland" so we can still call ourselves British. Given that Ireland can call itself the Republic of Ireland without having the whole island, we might not need to change our name at all...
It's a nice flag so why change it plus it can represent all the Scottish refugees left in England.
Right. It's not even the Scottish blue any more, seeing as the Saltire changed its shade.
I think we also go for "The United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland" so we can still call ourselves British. Given that Ireland can call itself the Republic of Ireland without having the whole island, we might not need to change our name at all...
Not sure if this was covered down thread but I saw a version of the "new union flag" with the blue replaced by black and a yellow band put outside the cross of St George whilst leaving the crosses of St George and Patrick as they are now. What this was doing was incorporating the cross of St David (yellow cross - but like St George's ) on a black background into the flag. Worked really well, kept same theme but represented the E/W/NI idea.
"ROYAL Mile publicans have been warned to expect clashes between football fans during an Orange Order march through the city centre tomorrow.
The Evening News understands pub owners have been told by police that groups of Hibs and Rangers fans are planning to cause trouble at the controversial event, being held just days before the referendum.
With supporters set to arrive from as far afield as London, it is also understood a counter-demonstration will be held at Holyrood.
However, police and city licensing chiefs today said they were unaware of any official protest scheduled to coincide with tomorrow’s procession, which will see around 12,000 Orange Lodge members march from the Meadows to Regent Road.
Comments
They are not the only people speaking out though are they?
drip, drip, drip
That's a nice democratic position to hold - where even wanting a vote on an issue makes someone a bastard.
@ Carnyx
Not sure. It's near Swanbister and certainly overlooks Scapa Flow right on the coast. It was simply the graveyard with the best view ( if you know what I mean) I've ever seen. It's near a farm called Waterslap where my great grand parents had a few cows I believe.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/12/scotland-vote-braveheart-nationalism-democracy-independence
"It is striking that the referendum has turned out not to be about certain things: Braveheart, kilts, the saltire, hating Sassenachs, Rabbie Burns, Renton’s rant in Trainspotting about the Scots allowing themselves to be “colonised by wankers”. The language of tribal nationalism is starkly unspoken. For an issue of such moment, the debate has been remarkably civilised and thoughtful. If you’re Irish, you can only look on in admiration and envy: Scotland has the opportunity to acquire independence without murders, without civil wars, without partition, without a toxic bitterness being passed on through generations. There have been a few nasty incidents and there may be more but having an egg thrown at you or being abused on Twitter is not quite like being put against the wall and shot."
[...]
"For while it is the Scottish Question that is on the ballot paper, it is the British Question that is really on the table. Alongside the absence of nationalist sentimentality on one side of the argument, there is something equally remarkable on the other: the inability of the no campaign to articulate a coherent, passionate and convincing case for the existing United Kingdom seems, from the outside, quite staggering."
Anyway, goodnight. And looking forward (?) to the next poll, and the next scare do jour.
Arrest them all ?
Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters.
Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
As investments in London are closing at a rapid pace Scots are asking how it is that an insignificant, benefit scrounging, subsidy junky, subsidised region that is is lucky to be in the UK - as Scots are continually reminded - could cause such financial distress for London?
Many voters as well as investors are concluding that it is the potential loss of the oil revenues that is leading to scare stories coming out of sources in or linked to London City and Westminster.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fBxvVgbyO_msx2eJxVbUlh6MubdD4-fZ-UIBFkwNIaI/edit#gid=0
that's it, Scotland is the biggest and richest economy in the world, this time next year you'll be millionaires Mcdelboy.
# toostupid
And they have the day off from football.
Anyway off to bed, have a good evening.
How did you derive your data?
2011 (per Boundary Commission) - 3,928k
Today - 4,285k
Change - Up 357k (9%)
The Western Isles are of course largely Gaellic speaking so it seems likely it'll have the highest Yes vote, but there is the slight complication of Protestants and Catholics in that area who might vote differently to each other.
Not a smart move from the bowler-hatted bigots...
Angus
Clackmannanshire
Glasgow
Highland
Moray
North Lanarkshire
West Lothian
I was under the impression that we is a UNITED Kingdom, and we is BETTER TOGETHER!
Na h-Eileanan Siar 55.1
North Lanarkshire 58.3
Inverclyde 53.7
Orkney 33.0
East Lothian 49.9
Perth and Kinross 37.4
Moray 42.9
Clackmannanshire 55.7
West Dunbartonshire 60.4
Dumfries and Galloway 36.4
Angus 40.4
South Lanarkshire 53.5
East Renfrewshire 37.4
Dundee City 51.7
Falkirk 55.7
Renfrewshire 54.7
East Ayrshire 56.8
Aberdeenshire 39.6
Stirling 44.2
Midlothian 55.6
Argyll and Bute 43.0
West Lothian 55.3
South Ayrshire 42.6
Shetland 38.1
East Dunbartonshire 45.5
Fife 51.8
Highland 48.3
North Ayrshire 52.0
Scottish Borders 38.5
City of Edinburgh 47.6
Glasgow City 59.3
Aberdeen City 47.5
I will try and refine this model by Thursday.
Night all.
Even if the postal votes for a particular region were improperly known, in a close national contest it's difficult to believe that such information would prove of much value from a betting perspective. As regards "private polling", I fail to see to what degree this would be more reliable than large sample polls carried out by the top professional pollsters.
My own view is that two factors are giving confidence to those betting that there will be a NO outcome - the underestimation in the polling figures of "shy NOs" and the fact that historically in such types of referenda, the late deciding "don't knows" tend to break heavily in favour of the status quo, i.e.against independence.
Sticking my neck out, I have a feeling that the NOs will win by a margin of between 7% - 9%, with the result therefore being of the order of 54% - 46%.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-F5dmRV5Bc&list=RD2-F5dmRV5Bc#t=24
http://www.morningstaronline.co.uk/a-80e7-Scotland-we-love-you,-honest-we-do#.VBN_VfldV8E
"If Sir John Randall were to quit his seat, Boris Johnson would be just 4 weeks from becoming an MP, & so qualified to stand for Tory leader
12:16am - 13 Sep 14"
https://mobile.twitter.com/MichaelLCrick
Around 60 firefighters called in to tackle the blaze, with no injuries reported at the Triumph Road property"
http://www.theguardian.com/education/2014/sep/12/blaze-university-of-nottingham-building-site
Most posters on this site have a damn sight more integrity than you, and they are happy to be open and honest about nailing their own political leaning to the mast when debating on here, what ever their political persuasions. And as a result, that can often enhance rather undermine their contributions to the site. Two of the best contributors to this site over the years were Libdems, the late SBS and Yellow Submarine. Both much missed, although I know Yellow Submarine has briefly surfaced recently. And lets not forget that OGH is a Libdem too.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/510460547067052032
Friday morning is going to be a helluva betting experience, and not for the faint-hearted.
The running total lead could change at least four times. YES could start building a sizeable lead, lose it and continue to fall further behind by an even bigger and increasing margin, only to sneak it with the last two results...
May do a guest article.
Or is this referendum just an excuse to divide over anything and everything, irrelevant to the question at hand?
How's your 35% for Yes prediction looking?
I think we also go for "The United Kingdom of Southern Britain and Northern Ireland" so we can still call ourselves British. Given that Ireland can call itself the Republic of Ireland without having the whole island, we might not need to change our name at all...
http://www.hmfckickback.co.uk/index.php?/topic/144357-how-will-you-vote-jkb-independence-referendum-poll-september-2014/