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Partial turnout data does more harm than good – politicalbetting.com

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  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    edited May 1

    Spoke to my parents who in their mid 70s have clearly enjoyed* their first STV election. They both voted for me (poor fools) but then appear to have voted randomly down the ballot. LibDem 1 SNP 2 Tory 3 anyone?

    Well I don't have a Lib Dem to vote for
    You need to make an urgent call: 020 7938 6000
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 7,115

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Cockup not conspiracy, and certainly not comparable with the No 10 antics in harder lockdown. But not handled well.

    The smeary attempts to draw equivalence by Conservatives and their media outlets are more concerning.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 57,783

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    moonshine said:

    MrEd said:

    Hmm. Pound's fallen quite a bit against the dollar lately.

    We are rowing back (by the look of things) on aggressive interest rate rises whilst the US is ploughing ahead. Personally, I think the US is going about it the wrong way given many of the factors are outside the scope of interest rate rises but clear there is big political pressure to ‘do something’. Given the Chinese have been cutting rates, that’s going to have very interesting implications for the trade deficit argument going into November (although I recognise the current supply chain disruptions / issues with China may mean Chinese export numbers pre-election maybe won’t be as bad as might have been).
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    It’s not about sterling, it’s about the dollar.
    Which is my point. The dollar is rising because the Fed is signalling it will push more aggressive interest rate rises when others like the BoE and even the ECB are becoming less aggressive given the economic environment is looking tougher.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512

    @Mexicanpete , @Big_G_NorthWales

    Real excitement ! Free trees are on their way !

    It seems 5,000 trees were given out in March (according to a press release from the Welsh Government), and there will be 200,000 more free trees available in Autumn 2022.

    It seems that they will be given out at five regional hubs in Llanrwst, Wrexham, Machynlleth, Swansea and Cwmbran.

    So, a trip to Mach for me in the Autumn, presumably with proof of Welshness to claim my free tree.

    Apparently, it is a native broadleaf tree.

    Don't you talk to me about free ******* trees.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council who want to plant a wood of hazel and hawthorn trees on the pleasant Duchy of Lancaster paddock in front of Castell Mexicanpete.

    I note the the tree hugger behind this project hasn't volunteered for a ******* forest to be planted outside his house.

    Should this come to pass, I will take my 150 trees and replant them on Drakeford's front lawn. We'll see how much he likes trees then.
    Labour has form with this sort of thing


    https://houseandheritage.org/tag/manny-shinwell/
    Ha, yes. That was a disgrace and it rather exposed Labour's bad side. Pure spite rather than improvement of anyone's living standards. It wasn't even as if the estate had been exploiting miners - they were decent employers by all accounts.

    There is a plan to do the place up and it has opened recently for various functions but the missing gardens are a big shame.

    Well worth a walk past though. There's quite a few amusing follies in the area, too. Not perhaps what you expect in Rotherham.
    AIUI the local miners union offered to compensate the government for the lost profits if they didn’t destroy the gardens - but Shinwell refused. He also vetoed a plan to give the house and estate to the national trust
    Yes, I believe that is correct. It really was a sordid tale of class war. I'm sure @Charles would have had something to say!

    There's a Downton style book about the family which is amusing if you like that kind of thing:
    https://www.amazon.com/Black-Diamonds-Great-English-Dynasty/dp/0141019239

    Must have another walk round there to see how things are going.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    As ever, fog of war, rumours, etc, etc.

    I know it's awful but I find the news about Ukraine a switch-off, even more so the relish with which a certain type of armchair expert repeatedly posts on here about it.

    It's awful. It's messy. It's protracted. There's nothing else we need to know.
    It's a major news story.
    It is. But it's 1000 miles away. It's not the UK. It's not really our politics. There are plenty of military sites on which to go and post your latest tactical observations and manoeuvre your toy soldiers.

    It's a shame in a way that this site can't operate sub-threads then all you boys with toys could go off to your dorms and discuss it to your hearts' content.
    Or a knitting section where you could go and bore the knitters to death
    Morning Malc - hope you and your good lady are keeping well

    We have a trip arranged to our family in Lossiemouth in July and will be the first time we have met in over 2 years

    Amazing when you think about it that we have not been able to go north until recently
    Morning G, yes very well thanks, hopefully you and family are the same. Hopefully you get decent weather for your trip, July is not normally our best month rain wise. Be nice to see your family after such a long break.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    IshmaelZ said:

    Britain accused of being ‘more evil’ than US and stealing ‘Russian’ invention of fish and chips
    Andrei Isayev, a pro-Kremlin politician, said Britain had ‘never been a real ally to Russia’ during an impassioned tirade on state TV

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/01/britain-accused-evil-us-stealing-russian-invention-fish-chips/

    Slightly weird

    It’s certainly weird, but would it be any less weird if the geo political views of Kelvin Mackenzie, Farage, Tommy Robinson and all of the GB News no marks were being amplified as representing the UK? Tbf it’s sometimes felt like that over the last few years.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773
    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 2,405
    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,959

    @Mexicanpete , @Big_G_NorthWales

    Real excitement ! Free trees are on their way !

    It seems 5,000 trees were given out in March (according to a press release from the Welsh Government), and there will be 200,000 more free trees available in Autumn 2022.

    It seems that they will be given out at five regional hubs in Llanrwst, Wrexham, Machynlleth, Swansea and Cwmbran.

    So, a trip to Mach for me in the Autumn, presumably with proof of Welshness to claim my free tree.

    Apparently, it is a native broadleaf tree.

    Don't you talk to me about free ******* trees.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council who want to plant a wood of hazel and hawthorn trees on the pleasant Duchy of Lancaster paddock in front of Castell Mexicanpete.

    I note the the tree hugger behind this project hasn't volunteered for a ******* forest to be planted outside his house.

    Should this come to pass, I will take my 150 trees and replant them on Drakeford's front lawn. We'll see how much he likes trees then.
    Labour has form with this sort of thing


    https://houseandheritage.org/tag/manny-shinwell/
    Ha, yes. That was a disgrace and it rather exposed Labour's bad side. Pure spite rather than improvement of anyone's living standards. It wasn't even as if the estate had been exploiting miners - they were decent employers by all accounts.

    There is a plan to do the place up and it has opened recently for various functions but the missing gardens are a big shame.

    Well worth a walk past though. There's quite a few amusing follies in the area, too. Not perhaps what you expect in Rotherham.
    AIUI the local miners union offered to compensate the government for the lost profits if they didn’t destroy the gardens - but Shinwell refused. He also vetoed a plan to give the house and estate to the national trust
    Yes, I believe that is correct. It really was a sordid tale of class war. I'm sure @Charles would have had something to say!

    There's a Downton style book about the family which is amusing if you like that kind of thing:
    https://www.amazon.com/Black-Diamonds-Great-English-Dynasty/dp/0141019239

    Must have another walk round there to see how things are going.
    Amazon lists the book (new, hardback) at almost US$200!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749

    Spoke to my parents who in their mid 70s have clearly enjoyed* their first STV election. They both voted for me (poor fools) but then appear to have voted randomly down the ballot. LibDem 1 SNP 2 Tory 3 anyone?

    That would be quite a rare combo I think.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 17,823
    MrEd said:

    ...

    MrEd said:

    The Daily Mail says there is a war on when Johnson is given a cake.

    Yet they seem very concerned when Starmer legally drinks a beer.

    Idk but I’m starting to get the sense the Mail is a bit dishonest

    Remember they were four square behind the Second World War effort ...just not ours.
    Which is not true. The Mail flirted with fascism in the 30s…as did the Daily Mirror.

    And, anyway, it’s not only moi who thinks that it’s ludicrous to keep bringing it up

    https://amp.theguardian.com/media/greenslade/2011/dec/06/dailymail-oswald-mosley
    Thank you Mr Dacre. The post nonetheless got the cheap laugh I desired.
    You are welcome Mr Corbyn.
    Damn, busted! Your £5 is in the post.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    This is a very good long read article on the history of Ukraine - and the competing Ukrainian and Russian understandings of it.

    https://www.newyorker.com/news/essay/the-war-in-ukraine-is-a-colonial-war
    … Ukraine does have a history, of course, and Ukrainians do constitute a nation. But empire enforces objectification on the periphery and amnesia at the center. Thus modern Russian imperialism includes memory laws that forbid serious discussion of the Soviet past. It is illegal for Russians to apply the word “war” to the invasion of Ukraine. It is also illegal to say that Stalin began the Second World War as Hitler’s ally, and used much the same justification to attack Poland as Putin is using to attack Ukraine. When the invasion began, in February, Russian publishers were ordered to purge mentions of Ukraine from textbooks.

    Faced with the Kremlin’s official mixture of fantasy and taboo, the temptation is to prove the opposite: that it is Ukraine rather than Russia that is eternal, that it is Ukrainians, not Russians, who are always right, and so on. Yet Ukrainian history gives us something more interesting than a mere counter-narrative to empire. We can find Ukrainian national feeling at a very early date. In contemporary Ukraine, though, the nation is not so much anti-colonial, a rejection of a particular imperial power, as post-colonial, the creation of something new.…
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    IshmaelZ said:

    Britain accused of being ‘more evil’ than US and stealing ‘Russian’ invention of fish and chips
    Andrei Isayev, a pro-Kremlin politician, said Britain had ‘never been a real ally to Russia’ during an impassioned tirade on state TV

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/01/britain-accused-evil-us-stealing-russian-invention-fish-chips/

    Slightly weird

    It’s certainly weird, but would it be any less weird if the geo political views of Kelvin Mackenzie, Farage, Tommy Robinson and all of the GB News no marks were being amplified as representing the UK? Tbf it’s sometimes felt like that over the last few years.
    Sure, I have no idea what counts as George Galloway equiv in Russia. But as noted above you've got 60 Minutes on Russian Channel one with elaborate graphics projecting Kalinin to london flight time (202 seconds, since you ask), which isn't easily explained as an unexpected rant by a guest.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941
    Cicero said:

    A Happy Bealltainn to those having such pagan fun. In Estonia the last night is Volberiöö- Walpurgisnacht- when the witches dance until the cock crows and mortals should fear to be awake. These days its a bit like American Halloween, and mostly celebrated by the students at the University of Tartu with fire parades and raucous revelry. There will be many hungover fraternity students this morning.

    In a way it rather feels like Russia is in some feverish Volberiöö itself. The unhinged television commentary; the casual references to levels of brutality that go beyond even the perversions of the most demented Nazi sadist; the increasing silence by a growing number as a smaller group descends into an insane fury.

    That silence is beginning to speak volumes. The anti war graffitti that seems to be spreading across European Russia may or may not be significant, but if Putin is planning to announce conscription in European Russia, then he is playing with fire. So far the large casualties in the war have been borne by non Russian minorities: Buryatia and Dagestan especially. If conscription now means that young Muscovites are in line, then the regime will need to explain how badly the war has been going for them so far. To openly admit that it has not exactly been a walk in the park will ask a lot of other questions.

    In any event, it would take months for the conscripts to be sufficiently prepared to enter the battlefield. Despite the assessment that the war could indeed go on for months or even years, it may well be that Russia does not have months. A comprehensive Russian defeat in the East and South grows more likely as Ukraine brings in new units and new equipment and Russian losses remain critical.

    The Russian economy, including its arms manufacturing sector, is coming to a dead stop as sector after sector wilts under the sanctions regime. The point is that Putin can announce whatever he pleases, but the exhausted and shattered Russian army and the crippled nag of its economy may simply not be able to deliver.

    Then the Russian Volberiöö will begin in earnest.

    Excellent as ever - these should just be thread headers, each and every time.

    The Russian propaganda is very weird and disturbing. I am seeing stuff via Russian relatives that is actually self contradictory. The videos from the front proclaim the heroics of the Noble Russian soldiers - then show gangs of armed homeless people wondering about.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg said:

    Heathener said:

    Heathener said:



    As ever, fog of war, rumours, etc, etc.

    I know it's awful but I find the news about Ukraine a switch-off, even more so the relish with which a certain type of armchair expert repeatedly posts on here about it.

    It's awful. It's messy. It's protracted. There's nothing else we need to know.
    It's a major news story.
    It is. But it's 1000 miles away. It's not the UK. It's not really our politics. There are plenty of military sites on which to go and post your latest tactical observations and manoeuvre your toy soldiers.

    It's a shame in a way that this site can't operate sub-threads then all you boys with toys could go off to your dorms and discuss it to your hearts' content.
    Or a knitting section where you could go and bore the knitters to death
    Morning Malc - hope you and your good lady are keeping well

    We have a trip arranged to our family in Lossiemouth in July and will be the first time we have met in over 2 years

    Amazing when you think about it that we have not been able to go north until recently
    Morning G, yes very well thanks, hopefully you and family are the same. Hopefully you get decent weather for your trip, July is not normally our best month rain wise. Be nice to see your family after such a long break.
    Thanks Malc and yes it is a long awaited family visit to my brother in law, nieces and nephews and family friends
    It is also part of the Moray open golf week that my son in law here in Wales is competing in with our nieces husband
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173
    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    The LOLz is they said, we don't investigate da commun peepul for historic lockdown breaches, so singling out a prominent person would be inconsistent and wrong. And to show how consistently we apply this principle, it was our reason for not investigating that Mr Cummings.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 4,668
    MrEd said:

    moonshine said:

    MrEd said:

    Hmm. Pound's fallen quite a bit against the dollar lately.

    We are rowing back (by the look of things) on aggressive interest rate rises whilst the US is ploughing ahead. Personally, I think the US is going about it the wrong way given many of the factors are outside the scope of interest rate rises but clear there is big political pressure to ‘do something’. Given the Chinese have been cutting rates, that’s going to have very interesting implications for the trade deficit argument going into November (although I recognise the current supply chain disruptions / issues with China may mean Chinese export numbers pre-election maybe won’t be as bad as might have been).
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    It’s not about sterling, it’s about the dollar.
    Which is my point. The dollar is rising because the Fed is signalling it will push more aggressive interest rate rises when others like the BoE and even the ECB are becoming less aggressive given the economic environment is looking tougher.
    Sorry yes indeed, I was emphasising your reply to the OP
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    MrEd said:

    moonshine said:

    MrEd said:

    Hmm. Pound's fallen quite a bit against the dollar lately.

    We are rowing back (by the look of things) on aggressive interest rate rises whilst the US is ploughing ahead. Personally, I think the US is going about it the wrong way given many of the factors are outside the scope of interest rate rises but clear there is big political pressure to ‘do something’. Given the Chinese have been cutting rates, that’s going to have very interesting implications for the trade deficit argument going into November (although I recognise the current supply chain disruptions / issues with China may mean Chinese export numbers pre-election maybe won’t be as bad as might have been).
    https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

    It’s not about sterling, it’s about the dollar.
    Which is my point. The dollar is rising because the Fed is signalling it will push more aggressive interest rate rises when others like the BoE and even the ECB are becoming less aggressive given the economic environment is looking tougher.
    Not sure about that. The dollar is rising because it has safe haven status and we are in interesting times. The trend for interest rates is up pretty much everywhere as inflation bites. The catastrophic zero Covid policy in China is going to put the world back into recession as most manufacturers run out of essential parts and interest rates will then have to come down again.

    Sterling is up 5c against the Euro over the last year but its trading in a fairly narrow band.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    I agree there
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,707
    Cicero said:

    Cicero said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Britain accused of being ‘more evil’ than US and stealing ‘Russian’ invention of fish and chips
    Andrei Isayev, a pro-Kremlin politician, said Britain had ‘never been a real ally to Russia’ during an impassioned tirade on state TV

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/01/britain-accused-evil-us-stealing-russian-invention-fish-chips/

    Slightly weird

    "Slightly"? The whole country is having a massive nervous breakdown.
    It's certainly weird. Because we think of Russia as monolithic with every utterance pre-cleared by censors, we tend to seize on anyone saying anything peculiar, even random backbenchers like this guy, who sounds like a George Galloway sort of figure (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Isayev ). Similarly, if a random TV commentator says something apparently off-message, we wonder if it's kite-flying and a precursor to a big policy change.

    Obviously it could be. But my impression is that Russian politics and media are full of broadly pro-regime people, often not very talented, keen to make an impact without rocking the boat. They self-censor but don't get their comments pre-approved, and occasionally someone strays too far and gets into trouble. There are hundreds of people expressing opinions every day, but unless a clear recurring theme appears they don't mean much more than a British borough councillor sounding off on PB (glances in mirror). I'm not convinced that there is much of a nervous breakdown going on in Russia - more a climate of complacency mingled with creeping unease.
    Well Nick, I certainly agree that Russia is no monolith, but the pressure on those who oppose the regime is intense and often violent. Plenty of those who protested the war are still in prison. Neither are the extreme views you note expressed solely by extremists. The point I think is that even the untalented political hacks are watching the organs of state with a worried eye, which is why they are pursuaded to double down on the vile rhetoric: its safer than being seen as "soft" on the West. The regime does not mind, since it then makes them look moderate when they advocate some lesser crime instead.

    Nevertheless, the stunning blunder that Putin has made is placing Russian social stability at some risk, and as I hinted earlier there is a risk of civil unrest or even civil war in Russia. Arguably the use of Chechen troops to put down mutiny and force other units forward might be seen as the first shots in this possible civil war. When we discuss "low morale", we mean that Buryat and Chechen units are fighting each other. This time the Chechens won, but there will be a next time.
    Yes - perhaps the big picture is this: Putin's popularity is based on stability and stopping Russia going in to chaos. But this war is the undoing of all that. He should have quit while he was ahead.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    Big_G - friend - this is silly. The police *have* done an investigation. "Look, here is Starmer at a campaign event" complained the Tories. Plod looks at the picture. "Campaign events are legal, no further investigation.

    Now we have the "scandal" that maybe Rayner was there as well and maybe Labour "lied" about her being there. At a campaign event. legally.

    What do you want the police to interview Starmer about? "Were you at this legal campaign event"?

    Seriously, this is silly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Spoke to my parents who in their mid 70s have clearly enjoyed* their first STV election. They both voted for me (poor fools) but then appear to have voted randomly down the ballot. LibDem 1 SNP 2 Tory 3 anyone?

    Well I don't have a Lib Dem to vote for, despite being a paperless candidate in another ward.
    I have 5 choices (2 Lab, 2 SNP, 1 Con) so, apart from putting a "5" against the Tory, the other 4 may be pretty random.
    Similar crap choices for me though there is also a Lib Dem, debating whether to vote at all and wife has already decided not to vote at all.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
    And why weren't they bovvered? Because it was legal to meet to campaign.

    Tories seem aggrieved that the police won't investigate something that was legal. After defending the Bog Dog repeatedly not understanding the law, they're now compounding their own stupidity by accusing someone of legally doing something.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Yes and there was nothing to see.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,152

    @Mexicanpete , @Big_G_NorthWales

    Real excitement ! Free trees are on their way !

    It seems 5,000 trees were given out in March (according to a press release from the Welsh Government), and there will be 200,000 more free trees available in Autumn 2022.

    It seems that they will be given out at five regional hubs in Llanrwst, Wrexham, Machynlleth, Swansea and Cwmbran.

    So, a trip to Mach for me in the Autumn, presumably with proof of Welshness to claim my free tree.

    Apparently, it is a native broadleaf tree.

    Don't you talk to me about free ******* trees.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council who want to plant a wood of hazel and hawthorn trees on the pleasant Duchy of Lancaster paddock in front of Castell Mexicanpete.

    I note the the tree hugger behind this project hasn't volunteered for a ******* forest to be planted outside his house.

    Should this come to pass, I will take my 150 trees and replant them on Drakeford's front lawn. We'll see how much he likes trees then.
    Labour has form with this sort of thing


    https://houseandheritage.org/tag/manny-shinwell/
    Ha, yes. That was a disgrace and it rather exposed Labour's bad side. Pure spite rather than improvement of anyone's living standards. It wasn't even as if the estate had been exploiting miners - they were decent employers by all accounts.

    There is a plan to do the place up and it has opened recently for various functions but the missing gardens are a big shame.

    Well worth a walk past though. There's quite a few amusing follies in the area, too. Not perhaps what you expect in Rotherham.
    AIUI the local miners union offered to compensate the government for the lost profits if they didn’t destroy the gardens - but Shinwell refused. He also vetoed a plan to give the house and estate to the national trust
    Yes, I believe that is correct. It really was a sordid tale of class war. I'm sure @Charles would have had something to say!

    There's a Downton style book about the family which is amusing if you like that kind of thing:
    https://www.amazon.com/Black-Diamonds-Great-English-Dynasty/dp/0141019239

    Must have another walk round there to see how things are going.
    Amazon lists the book (new, hardback) at almost US$200!
    Don't be proud. Just £9.95 for a 'very good' used hardback on ebay :)
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,512

    @Mexicanpete , @Big_G_NorthWales

    Real excitement ! Free trees are on their way !

    It seems 5,000 trees were given out in March (according to a press release from the Welsh Government), and there will be 200,000 more free trees available in Autumn 2022.

    It seems that they will be given out at five regional hubs in Llanrwst, Wrexham, Machynlleth, Swansea and Cwmbran.

    So, a trip to Mach for me in the Autumn, presumably with proof of Welshness to claim my free tree.

    Apparently, it is a native broadleaf tree.

    Don't you talk to me about free ******* trees.

    I am currently in dispute with the Community Council who want to plant a wood of hazel and hawthorn trees on the pleasant Duchy of Lancaster paddock in front of Castell Mexicanpete.

    I note the the tree hugger behind this project hasn't volunteered for a ******* forest to be planted outside his house.

    Should this come to pass, I will take my 150 trees and replant them on Drakeford's front lawn. We'll see how much he likes trees then.
    Labour has form with this sort of thing


    https://houseandheritage.org/tag/manny-shinwell/
    Ha, yes. That was a disgrace and it rather exposed Labour's bad side. Pure spite rather than improvement of anyone's living standards. It wasn't even as if the estate had been exploiting miners - they were decent employers by all accounts.

    There is a plan to do the place up and it has opened recently for various functions but the missing gardens are a big shame.

    Well worth a walk past though. There's quite a few amusing follies in the area, too. Not perhaps what you expect in Rotherham.
    AIUI the local miners union offered to compensate the government for the lost profits if they didn’t destroy the gardens - but Shinwell refused. He also vetoed a plan to give the house and estate to the national trust
    Yes, I believe that is correct. It really was a sordid tale of class war. I'm sure @Charles would have had something to say!

    There's a Downton style book about the family which is amusing if you like that kind of thing:
    https://www.amazon.com/Black-Diamonds-Great-English-Dynasty/dp/0141019239

    Must have another walk round there to see how things are going.
    Amazon lists the book (new, hardback) at almost US$200!
    Good grief, yes. Sorry, I picked the wrong site there.

    Bit cheaper in paperback from the correct side of the pond.
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Black-Diamonds-Rise-English-Dynasty/dp/0141019239
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,941

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought
    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    moonshine said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Taz said:

    Heathener said:

    Taz said:

    Nigelb said:

    Heathener said:



    As ever, fog of war, rumours, etc, etc.

    I know it's awful but I find the news about Ukraine a switch-off, even more so the relish with which a certain type of armchair expert repeatedly posts on here about it.

    It's awful. It's messy. It's protracted. There's nothing else we need to know.
    Speak for yourself.
    An unkind person might say something similar about your posts.

    A few short weeks ago they were demanding NATO intervention and no fly zones.
    Well I still think we should have heeded Zelensky's demand for a NFZ but that was just a POV.

    I've never advocated NATO intervention as such.

    I accept this is avoidance but tbh the war in Ukraine could drag on for years. As it has in Kashmir, Yemen, Tigray and countless other places around the world.
    A no fly zone would be, effectively, NATO intervention.

    It does look, sadly, like we are in for the long haul.
    That is the big question.
    If the Russian invasion isn’t defeated this year, then it will affect all our lives far more than say Brexit. Energy costs alone will do to this decade what the oil crisis did to the 70s.
    And we’re unlikely to break Russia economically any time soon - their oil and gas revenues so far this year are considerably higher than they were last. Volumes might be down, but higher prices have more than compensated even though they have to discount to the world market to sell the stuff.
    I feel like these two things are kind of at odds with each other. If sanctions don't significantly reduce Russian oil production, don't oil prices go back to normal? I mean, there's some efficiency loss whereby the EU can't buy oil by most efficient route and Russia can't sell it by the most efficient route, but presumably that mostly settles down over time as people readjust?
    Not necessarily. Their export volumes could be halved, and their revenues still be higher than they were a year or so back.
    Oil can fairly easily be redirected; gas isn’t so easy, as the pipeline to other destinations than Europe are limited.
    Sanctions will slowly degrade production volumes as they’re not self sufficient in production equipment and engineering.

    And remember worldwide demand will rise for most of this decade.
    Russia is already down about a million bbl a day at wellhead. Most of that is probably permanently lost production capacity, due to technical difficulty at those wells and the suddenly lost expertise and technology imports. Chinese state owned companies aren’t buying Russian oil product cargos, the private sector there is less circumspect but not much. The Turks, Baltics and Scandinavians aren’t bringing in Urals at all.

    The assumption must be that the crude making it to the world market right now is largely being consumed in the three core EU countries. And that Russian domestic storage is now close to full.

    If core EU is on the verge of formally phasing out imports of Urals crude, what then? The EU sanctions that kick in 15th May make it very difficult to impractical for Russian crude to go transoceanic at any scale. It’s reckoned there are single digit number of super tankers without an EU link that would be unaffected by the sanctions. Let’s assume 10mins bbl of capacity. And generously a 40 day return transit time to India. Unless there are unforeseen holes in the sanctions regimen, we could conceivably see as little as a million bbl a day make it to market, versus the pre war level of 5-6 million. Say some slips through, 2mln bbl. It’s still crippling.

    So what then if domestic storage is also full? Further falls of production at wellhead is the only answer. Which would almost certainly have a serious long term impact on Russia’s oil production capacity. And the assumption must surely be that medium term Europe will have pivoted away from Russian gas too.

    By the end of his Z War, Putin is going to have a shell of a conventional army, his core export industry of hydrocarbons will be bust and Russia’s demographics will look even worse. But it will still have an extortionately expensive nuclear arsenal to maintain. Feels to me the next Presidents of the US and Russia are going to be on Time Magazine’s cover shaking hands on a historic multi lateral disarmament deal. Hard to see another outcome.
    I don’t have a sufficient knowledge of the industry to challenge all those assumptions, but I’m not sure the picture is quite as good as that ?
    While I agree that in the medium term this is likely to be economically disastrous for Russia, what matters for the rest of us is how long they can sustain confrontation with the rest of the world.

    These figures don’t suggest China has stopped taking Russian oil ?
    Though granted the sanctions regime will be very different in a month’s time.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/27/russia-doubles-fossil-fuel-revenues-since-invasion-of-ukraine-began
    What makes you think what I’ve written are assumptions? You can take it from me, Chinese State Owned Enterprises have not been contracting new cargos of Urals crude or even Russian refined products. It’s a little reported but fascinating detail.
    The other issue is that the modern Russian oil and gas industry is highly dependent on specialist equipment. Due to the de industrialisation since the end of the Cold War, this is an issue that has grown over the years. Despite Putins push for autarchy.

    The same sanctions which have shut down chunks of Russian industry will hit here, as well.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
    And why weren't they bovvered? Because it was legal to meet to campaign.

    Tories seem aggrieved that the police won't investigate something that was legal. After defending the Bog Dog repeatedly not understanding the law, they're now compounding their own stupidity by accusing someone of legally doing something.
    Not what the police said. They said that as a matter of policy they would not investigate the issue.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    I agree there
    Sturgeon and her cronies should be in the adjacent cells to the Tory Cabinet
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    Even worse in Scotland David given as per usual all the evidence, minutes , documents etc seem to have disappeared. Begin to wonder if any Government records, minutes etc are not shredded in Scotland nowadays.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    malcolmg said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    Even worse in Scotland David given as per usual all the evidence, minutes , documents etc seem to have disappeared. Begin to wonder if any Government records, minutes etc are not shredded in Scotland nowadays.
    Safety first Malcolm, safety first.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
    He’s confessed that it would “make his year” to drive BigG off this blog. It seems a quite creepy, and pretty pathetic, vendetta. I hope BigG realises that he’s not the one with the real problem.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    Big_G - friend - this is silly. The police *have* done an investigation. "Look, here is Starmer at a campaign event" complained the Tories. Plod looks at the picture. "Campaign events are legal, no further investigation.

    Now we have the "scandal" that maybe Rayner was there as well and maybe Labour "lied" about her being there. At a campaign event. legally.

    What do you want the police to interview Starmer about? "Were you at this legal campaign event"?

    Seriously, this is silly.
    Doubt is being expressed about it not least as it was after 10.00pm at night and now 2 students who videoed it want to speak to Durham Police

    I agree that Rayner being there is not relevant but the problem for labour at the very best is they misled about it and it has re-opened the subject

    I do not understand why anyone would object to a MET style investigation if only to establish the facts

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
    And why weren't they bovvered? Because it was legal to meet to campaign.

    Tories seem aggrieved that the police won't investigate something that was legal. After defending the Bog Dog repeatedly not understanding the law, they're now compounding their own stupidity by accusing someone of legally doing something.
    Not what the police said. They said that as a matter of policy they would not investigate the issue.
    Its a sensible policy not to waste time investigating things they can clearly see as legal.

    I understand the strategy. Make as much noise as possible about plots and unfairness against poor Boris and maybe just maybe a few more people will vote Tory and that might save his job.

    Its desperate and painfully funny but I understand it.

    Because ultimately lets assume Durham Plod say "OK, we'll look at it". Spend an hour talking to the Tory students and looking at the video and pictures. Then plonk the law of the time on the table in front of them and say "this was legal". Or even go the whole hog and ask Starmer if he was there at the event. And then say "this was legal". Or perhaps summon the vagina-wielding Rayner and ask if she was there, hear she was and then say "this was legal".

    I know the totally brain-dead Tories don't know this was legal. They're the ones saying "where did they stay, hotels were closed" apparently unaware that hotels were open. They won't be happy. But the job of Durham Police isn't to placate morons. Its to enforce the law. And there is nothing to enforce here however many times the Daily Wail writes front page "news" saying there is.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    edited May 1
    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    I’m old enough to remember when the PB consensus was that the SG’s attitude to COVID and care homes was uniquely awful, a view expressed repetitively and loudly.

    Anas very much in agreement. At this rate Labour might also want C4 gutted and neutralised.

    https://twitter.com/pjwoodside/status/1520108849394556928?s=21&t=hpV65Hv287A1CGbRDuYpiw
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 15,157

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    Big_G - friend - this is silly. The police *have* done an investigation. "Look, here is Starmer at a campaign event" complained the Tories. Plod looks at the picture. "Campaign events are legal, no further investigation.

    Now we have the "scandal" that maybe Rayner was there as well and maybe Labour "lied" about her being there. At a campaign event. legally.

    What do you want the police to interview Starmer about? "Were you at this legal campaign event"?

    Seriously, this is silly.
    I really can't believe people are debating this when Sue Gray has yet to tell us what to think? Shocking. Disrespectful to the great lady even.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,959
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
    And why weren't they bovvered? Because it was legal to meet to campaign.

    Tories seem aggrieved that the police won't investigate something that was legal. After defending the Bog Dog repeatedly not understanding the law, they're now compounding their own stupidity by accusing someone of legally doing something.
    Not what the police said. They said that as a matter of policy they would not investigate the issue.
    It was re-investigate, effectively, wasn't it. And all adds to the desperation shown by the Tory party and it's acolytes for a stick, any stick, even a very little one, with which to beat Starmer and Labour.

    When your party is led by such a pillar of rectitude as Johnson any mud will have to do to throw at the opposition.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    Big_G - friend - this is silly. The police *have* done an investigation. "Look, here is Starmer at a campaign event" complained the Tories. Plod looks at the picture. "Campaign events are legal, no further investigation.

    Now we have the "scandal" that maybe Rayner was there as well and maybe Labour "lied" about her being there. At a campaign event. legally.

    What do you want the police to interview Starmer about? "Were you at this legal campaign event"?

    Seriously, this is silly.
    Doubt is being expressed about it not least as it was after 10.00pm at night and now 2 students who videoed it want to speak to Durham Police

    I agree that Rayner being there is not relevant but the problem for labour at the very best is they misled about it and it has re-opened the subject

    I do not understand why anyone would object to a MET style investigation if only to establish the facts

    *sigh*. Misled. About whether she was legally at something which was legal. It won't be a very long investigation will it. And won't change the outcome which is "nothing to investigate". And rather leaves the moron Tories and their friends looking like cretins for pushing something so dumb.

    You just voted against them. Good. Don't parrot their cretin comments.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,723
    I keep coming back to the question as to whether the public view of "all this" (broad hand gestures) is still focused primarily on Johnson, or whether the resignations etc have tipped over into "The Tories".

    It is notable, for instance, that the 56 MPs under investigation are across all parties, yet the public narrative strongly associates it with Tories.

    Has there been any polling on this?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
    He’s confessed that it would “make his year” to drive BigG off this blog. It seems a quite creepy, and pretty pathetic, vendetta. I hope BigG realises that he’s not the one with the real problem.
    Just back from my run.

    Thank you for your kind comments, I do try my best
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    The Durham Police investigated, they concluded no rules were broken.

    Nobody who wants it "reopened" actually has said once the rules were broken - because they weren't - and has presented no evidence to the contrary.

    What they want is a politically motivated investigation to get BoJo off the front page for a few days.

    And this is why I say these people are shilling for the Tories. There is no other legitimate explanation.

    Off for a lovely lunch out now!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
    I just do not understand his personal problem with me and to be honest, it is not necessary to become too personal with other posters who do not share your political views'
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    Yes and if you read very carefully, they keep saying POSSIBLE breach because if they said otherwise, they'd be taken to court and lose. And they know it.

    Right, really am off now, lucky you!
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    What wonders have Durham police been performing that put their probity and competence above question?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
    He’s confessed that it would “make his year” to drive BigG off this blog. It seems a quite creepy, and pretty pathetic, vendetta. I hope BigG realises that he’s not the one with the real problem.
    I really do and I know he has mental health issues which I greatly sympathise with having my eldest son experiencing extreme PTSD and anxiety for the last two years and only just now after intensive on going treatment is slowly emerging from his and our distress
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 19,636

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436

    malcolmg said:

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Hear Hear , seems fixated on Big G, not very edyfying to see.
    He’s confessed that it would “make his year” to drive BigG off this blog. It seems a quite creepy, and pretty pathetic, vendetta. I hope BigG realises that he’s not the one with the real problem.
    I really do and I know he has mental health issues which I greatly sympathise with having my eldest son experiencing extreme PTSD and anxiety for the last two years and only just now after intensive on going treatment is slowly emerging from his and our distress
    Don't bring up my mental health issues again. You've been warned.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    I’m old enough to remember when the PB consensus was that the SG’s attitude to COVID and care homes was uniquely awful, a view expressed repetitively and loudly.

    Anas very much in agreement. At this rate Labour might also want C4 gutted and neutralised.

    https://twitter.com/pjwoodside/status/1520108849394556928?s=21&t=83Gz7RCEHzY7z9uEbKCARA
    I don't remember any consensus although some did point out the awful consequences of the decisions made. But for me all of the administrations, whether led by the SNP, the Tories or Labour faced almost impossible choices. Did we want covid victims dying in corridors on trollies in the way we saw in northern Italy or did we prioritise the available beds by removing some of the bureaucratic impediments to the discharge of patient who in most cases should not have been in hospital in the first place but were stuck there because acceptable care plans had not been put in place?

    With hindsight we can say that the waves on hospital admissions did not prove as high as the worst case scenarios anticipated but that is only hindsight. The decisions made were, in my view, rational and involved a weighing of harms and potential harms to get the best outcome. If we had known at the time that asymptomatic carriers could infect others then that balance may well have been different but we didn't.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    What wonders have Durham police been performing that put their probity and competence above question?

    In comparison to the legal probity and competence of Daily Mail writers and Twitter posters with 8 digits in their handles?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
    Which is, of course, the view the Met should have stuck to as well.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    They watched a video and said “nah, can’t be bovvered”

    So yes and no
    And why weren't they bovvered? Because it was legal to meet to campaign.

    Tories seem aggrieved that the police won't investigate something that was legal. After defending the Bog Dog repeatedly not understanding the law, they're now compounding their own stupidity by accusing someone of legally doing something.
    Not what the police said. They said that as a matter of policy they would not investigate the issue.
    It was re-investigate, effectively, wasn't it. And all adds to the desperation shown by the Tory party and it's acolytes for a stick, any stick, even a very little one, with which to beat Starmer and Labour.

    When your party is led by such a pillar of rectitude as Johnson any mud will have to do to throw at the opposition.
    Yes. The trouble is, it's effective. It gives the Mail an opportunity for printing LABOUR LIES on its front page, and how many people just see the headline and think OK, must be true, all as bad as each other? And all because of Labour's cack handed, thumping-head-on-desk incompetence at rebuttal.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492

    What wonders have Durham police been performing that put their probity and competence above question?

    In comparison to the legal probity and competence of Daily Mail writers and Twitter posters with 8 digits in their handles?
    I don’t believe the probity or competence of those you mention would have any bearing on whether Durham police have properly carried out an investigation. I’m sure you can explain why they’re relevant though.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 1,723
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
    How does that square with the BBC report that

    ***

    Durham police says it has reviewed the video footage and would take "no further action".

    A spokesman said: "We do not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at that time."
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
    Apparently the students don't understand the law. Whether by accident or on purpose is yet to be known.
    IshmaelZ said:


    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?

    Because its bollocks. Here is the police statement: "Durham Police's statement said: “Earlier this year, Durham Constabulary undertook a review of video footage recorded in Durham on April 30, 2021. We stated that we did not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken and would therefore take no further action in relation to the matter." https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/durham-police-insists-not-investigating-23820912

    "We do not believe an offence has been established. They looked it it, concluded it was legal "in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken", and said nothing to investigate
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    edited May 1

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    You and I are at one with your last sentence, if it can be found !!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
    How does that square with the BBC report that

    ***

    Durham police says it has reviewed the video footage and would take "no further action".

    A spokesman said: "We do not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at that time."
    Don't be silly. We can't believe the police have the "probity and competence" to make such statements.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    You and I are at on with your last sentence, if it can be found !!
    I offer the good people of Macduff, Gardenstown and Rosehearty an extended period of calm if they elect me to Aberdeenshire council...
  • JonathanBarnesJonathanBarnes Posts: 70
    HYUFD said:

    Cicero said:

    HYUFD said:

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    Though in 1997 the Tories still won the most affluent AB social class even if Blair won the rest.

    Now the Tories vote is holding up best if anything with skilled working class C2s
    Which has a much lower propensity to vote.
    The Tories are still ahead with pensioners however, which they weren't in 1997 and they certainly do have a higher propensity to vote
    That's been the main constant since 2015 TBH. I don't see that changing much and the Tories dropping much below 60% of the over 65 vote at the next election. The main swing vote is working class middle aged voters who voted Labour in 2017 but did not in 2019.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    You and I are at on with your last sentence, if it can be found !!
    I offer the good people of Macduff, Gardenstown and Rosehearty an extended period of calm if they elect me to Aberdeenshire council...
    Good luck - it will be really funny if you are elected
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Britain accused of being ‘more evil’ than US and stealing ‘Russian’ invention of fish and chips
    Andrei Isayev, a pro-Kremlin politician, said Britain had ‘never been a real ally to Russia’ during an impassioned tirade on state TV

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/05/01/britain-accused-evil-us-stealing-russian-invention-fish-chips/

    Slightly weird

    It’s certainly weird, but would it be any less weird if the geo political views of Kelvin Mackenzie, Farage, Tommy Robinson and all of the GB News no marks were being amplified as representing the UK? Tbf it’s sometimes felt like that over the last few years.
    Sure, I have no idea what counts as George Galloway equiv in Russia. But as noted above you've got 60 Minutes on Russian Channel one with elaborate graphics projecting Kalinin to london flight time (202 seconds, since you ask), which isn't easily explained as an unexpected rant by a guest.
    I think that we can be fairly confident that the Russian equivalent of George Galloway accidently fell from his balcony or drank the wrong cup of tea some considerable time ago.

    There is a price to being the goodies and I am more than happy to put up with the idiocies of Mr Galloway if that is what the price is.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 44,323

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    Hell, I would just settle for competence, even if they ran around screaming most of the time.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492

    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
    How does that square with the BBC report that

    ***

    Durham police says it has reviewed the video footage and would take "no further action".

    A spokesman said: "We do not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at that time."
    Don't be silly. We can't believe the police have the "probity and competence" to make such statements.
    At least you’re questioning it now, even if sarcastically. I believe in starts.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
    Apparently the students don't understand the law. Whether by accident or on purpose is yet to be known.
    IshmaelZ said:


    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?

    Because its bollocks. Here is the police statement: "Durham Police's statement said: “Earlier this year, Durham Constabulary undertook a review of video footage recorded in Durham on April 30, 2021. We stated that we did not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken and would therefore take no further action in relation to the matter." https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/durham-police-insists-not-investigating-23820912

    "We do not believe an offence has been established. They looked it it, concluded it was legal "in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken", and said nothing to investigate
    "did not believe an offence has been established" is not a statement of a view on whether the thing was legal, any more than saying I do not believe that it has been established that there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system equates to I do not believe there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system.

    This is a meta argument. nobody believes or gives a toss about twhether the law was broken or not, it's about Lab ineptitude in dealing with the question, and a blow to those of us who were looking to them for a bit of quiet competence.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    SNP / LAB pact?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173
    mwadams said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Questioned by the Tories. Not questioned by the Police. How many times do you want to protest their reading of the law before you accept it was legal? Or can we expect another ENEMIES OF THE PEOPLE front page this time targeting Durham's Chief Constable and the investigating officer for refusing to believe Dan Hodges's read of the law over their own?
    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?
    How does that square with the BBC report that

    ***

    Durham police says it has reviewed the video footage and would take "no further action".

    A spokesman said: "We do not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at that time."
    see above
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
    Apparently the students don't understand the law. Whether by accident or on purpose is yet to be known.
    IshmaelZ said:


    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?

    Because its bollocks. Here is the police statement: "Durham Police's statement said: “Earlier this year, Durham Constabulary undertook a review of video footage recorded in Durham on April 30, 2021. We stated that we did not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken and would therefore take no further action in relation to the matter." https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/durham-police-insists-not-investigating-23820912

    "We do not believe an offence has been established. They looked it it, concluded it was legal "in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken", and said nothing to investigate
    "did not believe an offence has been established" is not a statement of a view on whether the thing was legal, any more than saying I do not believe that it has been established that there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system equates to I do not believe there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system.

    This is a meta argument. nobody believes or gives a toss about twhether the law was broken or not, it's about Lab ineptitude in dealing with the question, and a blow to those of us who were looking to them for a bit of quiet competence.
    The problem is that you keep saying they haven't said "this is legal". Thats not what the police do. When you drive down the road they don't pull you over to say "you are driving legally". Or stop you in the street for a search because they have reason to suspect you are acting legally. They only investigate things they believe may be illegal.

    So in this case they looked at the video. They looked at the regulations. Concluded they did not believe it to be illegal. And decided there was no case to investigate. That is as close to "this is legal" as it gets with the police.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,773

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    By who?

    apart from the usual suspects...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    By who?

    apart from the usual suspects...
    BBC and Sky this morning
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    I’m old enough to remember when the PB consensus was that the SG’s attitude to COVID and care homes was uniquely awful, a view expressed repetitively and loudly.

    Anas very much in agreement. At this rate Labour might also want C4 gutted and neutralised.

    https://twitter.com/pjwoodside/status/1520108849394556928?s=21&t=83Gz7RCEHzY7z9uEbKCARA
    I don't remember any consensus although some did point out the awful consequences of the decisions made. But for me all of the administrations, whether led by the SNP, the Tories or Labour faced almost impossible choices. Did we want covid victims dying in corridors on trollies in the way we saw in northern Italy or did we prioritise the available beds by removing some of the bureaucratic impediments to the discharge of patient who in most cases should not have been in hospital in the first place but were stuck there because acceptable care plans had not been put in place?

    With hindsight we can say that the waves on hospital admissions did not prove as high as the worst case scenarios anticipated but that is only hindsight. The decisions made were, in my view, rational and involved a weighing of harms and potential harms to get the best outcome. If we had known at the time that asymptomatic carriers could infect others then that balance may well have been different but we didn't.
    The transition from SNPbad to ‘all governments faced the same issues’ is a fine PB tradition.
    Same approach often applied to good faith criticism of ghastly EU govenments and bad faith criticism of well intentioned HMG.


  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,749

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    You and I are at on with your last sentence, if it can be found !!
    I offer the good people of Macduff, Gardenstown and Rosehearty an extended period of calm if they elect me to Aberdeenshire council...
    Masterly inactivity is the technical term I believe..
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 20,393

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    No it isn't. There is a desperate attempt to create a scandal where it doesn't exist by the Tories and the Mail. You voted against the Tories and I respect that. Yet are still ramping this utter nonsense. The only investigation that is needed is what promises the Tory Party have made to certain newspaper editors and senior hacks to write this guff.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Taz said:

    Taz said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    The Lie/dishonesty about Rayner is not a good look here and is helping the story keep going. In reality there is nothing to see here. But labour have handled it poorly.
    If the activity was allowed under law and therefore not illegal who gives a fig whether she was there or not.
    Plenty of people it would seem as the story is still dragging on and on. I’d rather my local constabulary would simply just get on with the job and not waste time and resource on this.
    The only people dragging this on are Big Dogs supporters, and tory journalists who are trying to whitewash Boris and the tories. The BBC and Sky seem to be running their news progs from some of the newspapers. I'd like to know why it's gone so quiet on PPE and lady mone (a tory), and the high Court condemning the government for spreading covid into the nursing homes
    Interesting that the High Court's decision on care homes as it applies equally to Scotland and Wales first ministers
    Indeed. So, we either have 3 administrations (I suspect NI will be the same) semi independently making the same mistake on the information that they had before them at the time or the court is being utterly ridiculous in retrospectively determining that the law was broken when Ministers decided to clear the wards of bed blockers for an incoming tsunami of Covid victims without all of the checks being made on those being transferred.

    This is the sort of thing that gives lawyers a bad name. There were no good choices here, only the less bad and the decision was entirely rational and reasonable in that context.
    I’m old enough to remember when the PB consensus was that the SG’s attitude to COVID and care homes was uniquely awful, a view expressed repetitively and loudly.

    Anas very much in agreement. At this rate Labour might also want C4 gutted and neutralised.

    https://twitter.com/pjwoodside/status/1520108849394556928?s=21&t=83Gz7RCEHzY7z9uEbKCARA
    I don't remember any consensus although some did point out the awful consequences of the decisions made. But for me all of the administrations, whether led by the SNP, the Tories or Labour faced almost impossible choices. Did we want covid victims dying in corridors on trollies in the way we saw in northern Italy or did we prioritise the available beds by removing some of the bureaucratic impediments to the discharge of patient who in most cases should not have been in hospital in the first place but were stuck there because acceptable care plans had not been put in place?

    With hindsight we can say that the waves on hospital admissions did not prove as high as the worst case scenarios anticipated but that is only hindsight. The decisions made were, in my view, rational and involved a weighing of harms and potential harms to get the best outcome. If we had known at the time that asymptomatic carriers could infect others then that balance may well have been different but we didn't.
    However they should have been moved to the Nightingale hospitals that had fortunes spent on them.
  • JonathanBarnesJonathanBarnes Posts: 70
    Westminster Voting Intention (Scotland):

    SNP: 42% (-6)
    LAB: 24% (+4)
    CON: 21% (=)
    LDM: 7% (=)

    Panelbase

    Interesting Scottish poll. Feels realistic to me and I will stick with my assumption that the Tories will hold up much better than expected in the Scottish local elections and get at least 20-23% at the local elections even if they suffer large middle class defections in Edinburgh to the LDs.

    Still a good poll for the SNP and is why I would still struggle to see them drop below 40% at the next GE (at the moment) as SLab is not really winning over SNP/Greens directly.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,073
    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
    Apparently the students don't understand the law. Whether by accident or on purpose is yet to be known.
    IshmaelZ said:


    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?

    Because its bollocks. Here is the police statement: "Durham Police's statement said: “Earlier this year, Durham Constabulary undertook a review of video footage recorded in Durham on April 30, 2021. We stated that we did not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken and would therefore take no further action in relation to the matter." https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/durham-police-insists-not-investigating-23820912

    "We do not believe an offence has been established. They looked it it, concluded it was legal "in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken", and said nothing to investigate
    "did not believe an offence has been established" is not a statement of a view on whether the thing was legal, any more than saying I do not believe that it has been established that there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system equates to I do not believe there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system.

    This is a meta argument. nobody believes or gives a toss about twhether the law was broken or not, it's about Lab ineptitude in dealing with the question, and a blow to those of us who were looking to them for a bit of quiet competence.
    Your analogy fails because the police say they conducted a review: they examined the evidence and formed a judgement. In your analogy, that would be like you looking at some video shot on a planet in the Trappist 1 star system that someone else had claimed proved life was there.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    No it isn't. There is a desperate attempt to create a scandal where it doesn't exist by the Tories and the Mail. You voted against the Tories and I respect that. Yet are still ramping this utter nonsense. The only investigation that is needed is what promises the Tory Party have made to certain newspaper editors and senior hacks to write this guff.
    Well - time will tell if this has legs - let's see how Durham Police respond to the request for a full investigation from Richard Holden, who by the way received a drunken tirade on the Commons terrace in front of witnesses from Mary Foy who was present at Durham and has subsequently submitted a written apology to him
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,492
    If Ange does end up admitting that she was making jokes about her prowling growler on the Commons terrace, would it change anyone’s opinion on the Mail publishing the story or on her complaints about the misogyny?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,173

    IshmaelZ said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    Again. They viewed the footage taken by the Tory students. Said "this is legal" and told the students to go away. I bet the students want to talk to Durham police, they think it grossly unfair that the labour leader acted legally and got away with it.
    Apparently it is the two students who are alleging Starmer of breaking covid regulations
    Apparently the students don't understand the law. Whether by accident or on purpose is yet to be known.
    IshmaelZ said:


    For someone with no axe to grind/skin in the game you aren't half making a meal of this. How many times do you want to be told that the police HAVE NOT STATED A VIEW on whether it was legal, they have said that it would be contrary to their practice, therefore unfair, to investigate its legality?

    Because its bollocks. Here is the police statement: "Durham Police's statement said: “Earlier this year, Durham Constabulary undertook a review of video footage recorded in Durham on April 30, 2021. We stated that we did not believe an offence has been established in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken and would therefore take no further action in relation to the matter." https://www.chroniclelive.co.uk/news/north-east-news/durham-police-insists-not-investigating-23820912

    "We do not believe an offence has been established. They looked it it, concluded it was legal "in relation to the legislation and guidance in place at the time the footage was taken", and said nothing to investigate
    "did not believe an offence has been established" is not a statement of a view on whether the thing was legal, any more than saying I do not believe that it has been established that there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system equates to I do not believe there is life on any of the planets in the Trappist 1 star system.

    This is a meta argument. nobody believes or gives a toss about twhether the law was broken or not, it's about Lab ineptitude in dealing with the question, and a blow to those of us who were looking to them for a bit of quiet competence.
    Your analogy fails because the police say they conducted a review: they examined the evidence and formed a judgement. In your analogy, that would be like you looking at some video shot on a planet in the Trappist 1 star system that someone else had claimed proved life was there.
    That's dead wrong. They very carefully do not say they formed a judgment on the substantive question.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    edited May 1

    Interesting article in the Times.

    Higher the affluence, the more likely people seem to be pissed off and staying at home.

    Which is a big problem for the Tories. As that is how Labour won so decisively in 1997.

    That was exactly my thought. New Labour was a very middle class thing.
    Yes, though CHB is saying something slightly different here - not that the middle classes flocked to New Labour but that many Tories stayed at home. That was certainly our impression in 1997 in Broxtowe - we had very extensive canvass data and full telling at polling stations, and we were really struck by the low turnout in the traditional Tory villages and small towns there. It wasn't our impression that masses of Tories were embracing us - rather that they felt their party needed a time out of office to sort themselves out, and Blair didn't seem threatening enough to make it important to stop him.

    That's undoubtedly the Starmer strategy. He thinks that the mood is "time for a change, so long as it's not very risky". People like me are restive as we didn't join Labour merely to be the we-aren't-too-bad party, but he's probably reading the national mood correctly.
    The thing so many people don't seem to comprehend about elections is that it isn't just your own voter that matters, its your opponent. You can win by standing still if your opponent loses a stack of voters to apathy.

    As for the mood of the country, is it that much of a surprise that people want a period of calm competence?
    You and I are at on with your last sentence, if it can be found !!
    I offer the good people of Macduff, Gardenstown and Rosehearty an extended period of calm if they elect me to Aberdeenshire council...
    My advice, based on getting elected to the parish council on a platform of Eco-anarchism deep in a tory oblast, is to make your wife the centre of the campaign. I'm pretty sure some of the braindead old fuckers thought they were voting for her rather than me.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    What you suggest is a pretty skewed idea of fair.
    You're saying that police re-investigations (not even investigations) should be at the behest of those with a political motive to call for them ?
    That is quite extraordinary.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,239

    MaxPB said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    Anyone remember when Bog G said his vote was up for grabs? Now he’s back shilling for his Tory paymasters again
    Deflecting and juvenile comment
    Your new strategy is not to debate but instead attack me.

    Mrs Thatcher used to say, when they attack me personally I know they’re losing. So thank you.

    Big G clearly swallowed the Daily Mail or whatever Tory propaganda he’s sent.

    I hope people will remember this when he next “wavers”. He’s one of the most dishonest people on this site.

    I think you need to get off the computer this fine weekend and clear your head.
    Fake Tory news!

    It's raining cats and dogs here in South Wales.
    It's a lovely sunny lunchtime here in the Veneto, although there is something in the air - a stirring of the wind -that just hints at the possibility of a thundery afternoon
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 36,885

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    No it isn't. There is a desperate attempt to create a scandal where it doesn't exist by the Tories and the Mail. You voted against the Tories and I respect that. Yet are still ramping this utter nonsense. The only investigation that is needed is what promises the Tory Party have made to certain newspaper editors and senior hacks to write this guff.
    Well - time will tell if this has legs - let's see how Durham Police respond to the request for a full investigation from Richard Holden, who by the way received a drunken tirade on the Commons terrace in front of witnesses from Mary Foy who was present at Durham and has subsequently submitted a written apology to him
    What a big ponce, embarrassing himself because a women had a rant at him when drunk. A big Tory woose , given what they deal out to women on a regular basis. Why would police be interested when a big jessie phones them to say a woman said he was a balloon. They will be rolling about the aisles.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 54,002
    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    RobD said:

    On this mornings Sophie Ridge and Sophie Raworth programmes both Starmer and Lammy admitted the lie that Rayner was not present at the controversial Durham meeting, and it is becoming obvious that the correct way for this issue to be resolved is for Durham police to interview those present and send out questionnaire as per the Met

    It appears Durham Police only looked at the tape and have not questioned Starmer or those present and now 2 students who actually filmed at the event are prepared to make statements about it to Durham Police

    Starmer and Labour should welcome a full investigation as they are confident no covid regulations were broken and the matter can be resolved

    If only we can get Starmer and Rayner a FPN each it proves Johnson's innocence of all charges! This seems to be a case of should something be repeated often enough it comes true.

    The evidence looks very, very slim to me that the law was broken, although the lie is foolish and unacceptable and perhaps you should demand Starmer and Rayner should both resign, not for the event but for the subsequent lie.
    Boris is guilty and should resign but Starmer and Rayner should submit to an investigation over Durham as Durham Police have not interviewed anyone present nor the 2 students who made a video of the event and have said they will speak to Durham Police if asked

    Starmer and Rayner have nothing to worry about if it was legal but to date Durham Police have not undertaken a proper investigation
    I don’t think that’s true. Wasn’t there an investigation by Durham police previously?
    Apparently they viewed footage of the event but have not interviewed anyone present and certainly not the 2 students who have come forward with their own video of the event and want to speak to Durham Police

    This is not about excusing Botis as he is inexcusable but it is about fairness in the application of the law and investigation into covid offences
    The presence of the word "apparently" means you don't know the truth of the matter?
    I do not know the truth of the matter not do I say I do, indeed nobody knows the truth of this story.

    Hence why Durham Police need to do a MET style investigation and resolve the issue
    A Met-style investigation. Of a legal event.
    To establish it was legal which is being questioned
    Backing calls for "Met style investigations" at the behest of the Mail "to establish it was legal" doesn't seem to be a very conservative thing to do, Big_G.
    Fairness is a virtue and to be honest the event is now being widely questioned
    What you suggest is a pretty skewed idea of fair.
    You're saying that police re-investigations (not even investigations) should be at the behest of those with a political motive to call for them ?
    That is quite extraordinary.
    I would suggest that is what happened in regards to the Met, and the police should act on evidence which is now big offered by 2 students who took their own video of the event
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,913
    edited May 1
    The key legal question is where the people in attendance there for the primary reason of work or a social gathering .

    If you work then pass some sandwiches around and a drink then go back to work this is legal . It’s pretty clear that Starmer is standing chatting to constituency workers who are seated in front of laptops in the original footage .

    Durham police have obviously seen the full footage and have judged this to not have broken the rules .

    The DM in its desperate efforts to make false equivalence only keeps partygate going and unless you’re stupid with an IQ of a fruit fly then it’s pretty clear that party central at no 10 is in a different league to the dead horse the DM keeps trying to flog !


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