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Macron set to win on Sunday – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553

    Almost certainly not.

    Although I do recall from the balcony photo that Carrie & her friends were at a separate table with Boris
    According to Telegraph that event has been dismissed by Met as below the threshold of investigation.

    It is the 20th May that the focus is on. BYOB. Email to all and sundry across Whitehall etc etc...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    Largest increase in Percentage points for Labour in the 21st Century he did I believe in 2017.

    Thanks for highlighting another of his achievements
    Well, 2001, 2005 and 2010 they were in government, so hard for them to go forward much. (And they were also coming off 1997.)

    So that leaves three elections where they were in opposition: which means he was first and last.

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463
    kinabalu said:

    That must be in the mix, yes. Personally I find it hard to understand rooting for the EU to collapse. Europe reverting to a morass of competing nationalisms - how can anybody in their right mind want that?
    I confirms them in the choices they made. Some were a little uncomfortable following Farage. If it unravels it makes acceptable the ugly connotations of their decision.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    kinabalu said:

    Because he wasn't monstered to quite the usual extent for a Labour leader not called Tony Blair, you mean.
    It should be a matter of eternal shame to Labour that they allowed Corbyn to become leader. He is, quite literally, anti-Western. Believes the wrong side won the Cold War.

    https://order-order.com/2022/04/20/corbyn-claims-he-doesnt-know-if-he-admires-zelensky-refuses-to-rule-out-starting-new-party/

    When asked if he admires Zelensky as a leader, Corbyn claimed he “doesn’t know” because he’s “never met him.” Presumably he spent plenty of time with Mary Wollstonecraft then, because he’s previously insisted she’s his “political hero”…
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719
    On Boomers and NIMBYism, intergenerational unfairness and why the Conservatives are no longer the party of Thatcher: https://himbonomics.substack.com/p/-the-triumph-of-janet-?s=r
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    I've said before that probably the most significant events in the 2017 election were the two terrorist outrages but most people, even on here, seem to forget they happened during the election campaign.
    Certainly made a difference to me. I’d decided to vote Tory for the first time in my life, but switched in the last days after TMay indicated an intention to tear up human rights legislation in the wake of the Southwark attack. I felt able to do so safe in the knowledge that Corbyn wouldn’t win.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    No need for monstering, his own disgusting record was quite enough, as we found as soon as voters woke up to it.

    The other thing about 2017 - now largely forgotten - was the absolutely vile and personal campaign against Theresa May that Labour (through proxies, mainly Momentum) ran on social media. It was quite extraordinarily unpleasant, but because it was aimed mainly at youngsters and was done on social media through videos which were then shared, it didn't really get noticed in the mainstream media.
    And the carefully targeted, social media smearing of Corbyn by the Tories in 2019 was on an industrial scale. But c'mon, your point was he did well in 2017 because he had the press on his side. That's nonsense. There's no way you can argue with a straight face that the weighted mass of the British media were on the side of Jeremy Corbyn in either of the elections he fought. Ok, by 2019 they were giving him a bigger kicking, maybe in 2017 they were a touch complacent, gave him no chance and so didn't bother putting the hobnail boots on, but that's as far as one can fairly go.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    Plus the assumption among many that the Tories were going to win handsomely ( a lot of the electorate would not notice the late swings) so that some people could indulge in Corbyn mania assuming that responsible adults would rescue them from the consequences of their vote. Like you I was astonished at the lack of scrutiny and also lack of attack from the Tory official campaign - they must have decided that negative campaigning would be counterproductive. Not so when too many thought Corbyn a harmless sincere anti-politician. Lib Dems also foolishly concentrated on exclusively attacking the Tories - they would be much better placed if they attacked both major parties hard.
    And this is why I think Le Pen could still win on Sunday.

    Lots of people don't like Macron. They don't like Le Pen either.

    If it were a forced choice, they'd go with Macron.

    But they'd rather not dirty their hands by actually voting for him, and if he's going to win anyway... And so a lot of his - rather shallow - vote stays home because they think he is home and dry.

    Now, is this the most likely scenario?

    Nope. But if I'm offered 20-1 on Le Pen, I might have a small nibble.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    A close friend of mine knows him well (and has negotiated with him extensively on multiple occasions).

    “Odious and untrustworthy” was his description.
    Ok, but not many people have close friends who have negotiated with Macron extensively on multiple occasions. So that can't really explain it.

    (It's not Putin, is it?)
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 2,979
    kinabalu said:

    And the carefully targeted, social media smearing of Corbyn by the Tories in 2019 was on an industrial scale. But c'mon, your point was he did well in 2017 because he had the press on his side. That's nonsense. There's no way you can argue with a straight face that the weighted mass of the British media were on the side of Jeremy Corbyn in either of the elections he fought. Ok, by 2019 they were giving him a bigger kicking, maybe in 2017 they were a touch complacent, gave him no chance and so didn't bother putting the hobnail boots on, but that's as far as one can fairly go.
    I remember the GE of 2017 vividly. All the "absolute boy" bollocks. And the credulous lack of understanding of what Corbyn was about and what he stood for. He deserved to be annihilated in 2019 and thank god he was. At least we now have a respectable LOTO and the grip of the hard left on Labour has been broken.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    kinabalu said:

    And the carefully targeted, social media smearing of Corbyn by the Tories in 2019 was on an industrial scale. But c'mon, your point was he did well in 2017 because he had the press on his side. That's nonsense. There's no way you can argue with a straight face that the weighted mass of the British media were on the side of Jeremy Corbyn in either of the elections he fought. Ok, by 2019 they were giving him a bigger kicking, maybe in 2017 they were a touch complacent, gave him no chance and so didn't bother putting the hobnail boots on, but that's as far as one can fairly go.
    Eh? When did I say he had the press on his side?

    You're half-right on 2019, on that occasion the Tories did finally get round to ensuring that voters knew just how odious Corbyn is, using the below-the-belt tactics of actually quoting his own words. However, by that stage I think most voters had worked it out for themselves, especially after Salisbury.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    I remember the GE of 2017 vividly. All the "absolute boy" bollocks. And the credulous lack of understanding of what Corbyn was about and what he stood for. He deserved to be annihilated in 2019 and thank god he was. At least we now have a respectable LOTO and the grip of the hard left on Labour has been broken.
    Ok, that's your view of Corbyn and Corbynism (which I don't totally disagree with as it happens) but let's not pretend he ever had the press on his side.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    JRM is spending his time leaving notes for civil servants who aren’t at their desks...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1517561184072962048?s=20&t=r1oznSlb5XBnAEYJUyYJQA

    How about sorting out the cost of living crisis, kicking out the liar in Number 10, or fixing public services, Jacob, instead of wasting your time on outmoded presenteeism?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942

    JRM is spending his time leaving notes for civil servants who aren’t at their desks...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1517561184072962048?s=20&t=r1oznSlb5XBnAEYJUyYJQA

    How about sorting out the cost of living crisis, kicking out the liar in Number 10, or fixing public services, Jacob, instead of wasting your time on outmoded presenteeism?

    There's an Opportunity there for an Efficiency Minister not to waste his time with such passive-aggressive bollocks.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    edited April 2022

    On Boomers and NIMBYism, intergenerational unfairness and why the Conservatives are no longer the party of Thatcher: https://himbonomics.substack.com/p/-the-triumph-of-janet-?s=r

    Thank you. Some absolutely fascinating graphs and diagrams there.

    And for our PB Village Tory,

    "This goes beyond mere equity. The party faces a fight for its survival as the boomer cohort passes on. In the long run, how can a party which stands for the preservation and low taxation of capital survive if later cohorts do not accumulate any capital?

    Inheritance won’t save it. The average millennial is set to receive theirs in their mid-sixties - well beyond their fertile years, and well beyond when they might hope to build a foundation for their later life (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2020). Leaving aside the distributive impact of inheritance (which is essentially untaxed), where the privileged are given a springboard well beyond necessity."
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296
    dixiedean said:

    There's an Opportunity there for an Efficiency Minister not to waste his time with such passive-aggressive bollocks.
    Yebbut, that would mean he might have to spend time looking for unicorns Brexit opportunities.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
     

    On Boomers and NIMBYism, intergenerational unfairness and why the Conservatives are no longer the party of Thatcher: https://himbonomics.substack.com/p/-the-triumph-of-janet-?s=r

    Substantial piece of work. Yours I suppose? Well done!

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719
    geoffw said:

     

    Substantial piece of work. Yours I suppose? Well done!

    Not mine! I merely spotted it on the interwebs and thought people here would appreciate it too.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    Not mine! I merely spotted it on the interwebs and thought people here would appreciate it too.
    oh, okay.

  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,364

    Yebbut, that would mean he might have to spend time looking for unicorns Brexit opportunities.
    He has to be a piece of performance art, surely?

    Or a sociological experiment, seeking to investigate how much superficial politeness is needed to compensate for how much deep nastiness.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    You don't need to hold your breath, just read my post.
    Nope nothing to see there.

    Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 65,553
    rcs1000 said:

    And this is why I think Le Pen could still win on Sunday.

    Lots of people don't like Macron. They don't like Le Pen either.

    If it were a forced choice, they'd go with Macron.

    But they'd rather not dirty their hands by actually voting for him, and if he's going to win anyway... And so a lot of his - rather shallow - vote stays home because they think he is home and dry.

    Now, is this the most likely scenario?

    Nope. But if I'm offered 20-1 on Le Pen, I might have a small nibble.
    BF will give you 17/1

    Not far away from your figure.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 45,381
    Russians using 110-year old ship to work on the Moskva wreck:

    http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Moskva-Cruiser-Wreck.html

    A vessel built for the Czar, was used by the communists, and now by the fascist Russian regime. Still in roughly the same role: salvage.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,831

    He has to be a piece of performance art, surely?

    Or a sociological experiment, seeking to investigate how much superficial politeness is needed to compensate for how much deep nastiness.
    I quite like the fact that a Minister is endeavouring to influence the Civil Service one way or another, however small and petty the attempt. Most in the present Government seem to be quite content with wherever below mediocre their departments are functioning. Patel is another honorable expection. They're also the ones who seem to get leaked against the most - funny that.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483

    JRM is spending his time leaving notes for civil servants who aren’t at their desks...

    https://twitter.com/dinosofos/status/1517561184072962048?s=20&t=r1oznSlb5XBnAEYJUyYJQA

    How about sorting out the cost of living crisis, kicking out the liar in Number 10, or fixing public services, Jacob, instead of wasting your time on outmoded presenteeism?

    So every civil servant has an allocated desk?

    There aren't many offices with a 100% utilisation rate - every desk occupied all the time. It means the office footprint of Government departments is far too large and the space should be sold off. These old buildings might look nice on the outside but they aren't fit for purpose as a modern workplace.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    Is he getting enough exposure?
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,482

    Russians using 110-year old ship to work on the Moskva wreck:

    http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Moskva-Cruiser-Wreck.html

    A vessel built for the Czar, was used by the communists, and now by the fascist Russian regime. Still in roughly the same role: salvage.

    I hope it sinks and kills all Russians on it.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677

    Nope nothing to see there.

    Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks
    Corbyn is no longer leader. Deal with it.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,719
    stodge said:

    So every civil servant has an allocated desk?

    There aren't many offices with a 100% utilisation rate - every desk occupied all the time. It means the office footprint of Government departments is far too large and the space should be sold off. These old buildings might look nice on the outside but they aren't fit for purpose as a modern workplace.
    Every civil servant certainly does not have an allocated desk. Many places have hot-desking arranagements. But do you think JRM knows that? Of course not.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,651
    kinabalu said:

    Are you and your tulip bed going to feature on the actual programme?
    God, I think I'd die of happiness!

    Anyway, sshhh - Monty Don is on now. He is planting a euphorbia mellifera for the first time. Where has he been?! I've had 2 in London for years now. And planted a couple in the tulip bed last year.

    It has yellow flowers (bracts, really) with the most delicious honey smell in spring - right about now, in fact. And the zingiest green leaves. An absolute must have.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810

    Eh? When did I say he had the press on his side?

    You're half-right on 2019, on that occasion the Tories did finally get round to ensuring that voters knew just how odious Corbyn is, using the below-the-belt tactics of actually quoting his own words. However, by that stage I think most voters had worked it out for themselves, especially after Salisbury.
    You said he did well at GE17 because had a free ride from the press. That was where we came in. Now adjusted to what I think we're agreed on - that the press were against him in 2017 but not by as much as they were against him in 2019.

    And ok, so if a smear campaign has a target you approve of it's both justified and is only saying what people in their heart of hearts already know to be true.

    There's more bias in your analysis than in mine, don't you think?
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    I have little doubt that Macron will win but personally I would prefer an incompetent fascist who would probably wreck the French economy as Hollande did to an anti British pound shop Napoleon who fails to keep any promises he makes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    Home Office staff have threatened a mutiny over Priti Patel’s plans to ship refugees to Rwanda, with one drawing comparisons to working for the Third Reich, it has emerged.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012
    Cyclefree said:

    God, I think I'd die of happiness!

    Anyway, sshhh - Monty Don is on now. He is planting a euphorbia mellifera for the first time. Where has he been?! I've had 2 in London for years now. And planted a couple in the tulip bed last year.

    It has yellow flowers (bracts, really) with the most delicious honey smell in spring - right about now, in fact. And the zingiest green leaves. An absolute must have.
    His garden looks like ours - the stones with moss, the ivy, the euphorbia, the iris …

  • Russians using 110-year old ship to work on the Moskva wreck:

    http://www.hisutton.com/Russian-Navy-Moskva-Cruiser-Wreck.html

    A vessel built for the Czar, was used by the communists, and now by the fascist Russian regime. Still in roughly the same role: salvage.

    Is it the same ship, or is it like Trigger’s broom?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    Best Con to Lab swing in last 24 years and counting
    NickPalmer said it best: Labour needs to be able to excite its true believers, without scaring the moderates (or worse, encouraging them to vote against you).

    Corbyn managed the first. Starmer manages the second.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924

    Corbyn is no longer leader. Deal with it.
    Shall we talk about SKS instead then?

    I am OK with that!!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    I have little doubt that Macron will win but personally I would prefer an incompetent fascist who would probably wreck the French economy as Hollande did to an anti British pound shop Napoleon who fails to keep any promises he makes.

    OK.

    So you want the French to suffer.

    Well, it's a view.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 43,342

    Yes, he's been a good president overall, despite various gaffes and his irritating style.
    Just imagine how shit it would be to have a rubbish leader with various gaffes and an irritating style.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556

    Shall we talk about SKS instead then?

    I am OK with that!!
    Congratulations. You have taken the first step.

    Now, having recognised your obsession, you need to get help for it.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Home Office staff have threatened a mutiny over Priti Patel’s plans to ship refugees to Rwanda, with one drawing comparisons to working for the Third Reich, it has emerged.

    Home Office staff should do as they're told and paid for.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Home Office staff have threatened a mutiny over Priti Patel’s plans to ship refugees to Rwanda, with one drawing comparisons to working for the Third Reich, it has emerged.

    Imagine a party with a leader whose central obsession was much more obviously reminiscent of the third reich

    *shudders*
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    rcs1000 said:

    NickPalmer said it best: Labour needs to be able to excite its true believers, without scaring the moderates (or worse, encouraging them to vote against you).

    Corbyn managed the first. Starmer manages the second.
    SKS has managed to lose a net 8 Councils and 337 Councillors so far compared to Corbyn.

    Should be able to get those back and more on 5/5/22 surely given the total implosion of Tories
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,831

    Home Office staff should do as they're told and paid for.
    Hopefully the Home Office is moved to Rwanda next; they'd probably do a better job.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,924
    edited April 2022
    People are saying Jeremy Hunt is one of the leading candidates to replace Boris Johnson. A fun fact about Jeremy Hunt is that his name is rhyming slang for Boris Johnson
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    Hopefully the Home Office is moved to Rwanda next; they'd probably do a better job.
    They can team up with the Danes. Those well-known right-wing extremists.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    SKS has managed to lose a net 8 Councils and 337 Councillors so far compared to Corbyn.

    Should be able to get those back and more on 5/5/22 surely given the total implosion of Tories
    At which point you will salute Starmer's performance?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503

    People are saying Jeremy Hunt is one of the leading candidates to replace Boris Johnson. A fun fact about Jeremy Hunt is that his name is rhyming slang for Boris Johnson

    Or Jeremy Corbyn. Obvs. Ha. Ha.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    edited April 2022

    People are saying Jeremy Hunt is one of the leading candidates to replace Boris Johnson. A fun fact about Jeremy Hunt is that his name is rhyming slang for Boris Johnson

    Imagine a party whose leader was, in rhyming slang terms, a ranty wee shite.

    ETA and in plaintext, cttoi, so it's a twofer.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,942
    rcs1000 said:

    You're thinking of some sort of Department of Administrative Affairs, with a cabinet level minister?
    Jim Hacker would be a shining light in this Cabinet.
    What with his towering intellect, conviction and deep moral principles.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,400

    They can team up with the Danes. Those well-known right-wing extremists.
    You mean you expect the British Government to announce it will ship people to Rwanda, and then not actually do it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rcs1000 said:

    At which point you will salute Starmer's performance?
    That's a negative, sir, only one living politician will ever be worthy of the Hitlergruß.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    rcs1000 said:

    You mean you expect the British Government to announce it will ship people to Rwanda, and then not actually do it?
    The British Government hasn't done anything with this idea yet. Much like the Danes.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,744
    .

    @francska1
    Russian state TV continues to be fixated on the UK

    Last night the country's most popular channel suggested Boris Johnson's visit to India was an attempt to revive the British Empire's 19th century "Great Game" with Russia


    https://twitter.com/francska1/status/1517526419097763840

    Do they not realise that both of us have been relegated from the Premier League ?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    dixiedean said:

    Jim Hacker would be a shining light in this Cabinet.
    What with his towering intellect, conviction and deep moral principles.
    Certainly Sir Humphrey would be a shining light in the current civil service...
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,012

    The British Government hasn't done anything with this idea yet. Much like the Danes.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though.
    All the better if the mere announcement can achieve the desired effect without actually putting it into practice.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,852
    Never mind pineapple pizza, the Swedes have come up with something better: ham and banana pizza.

    image
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689
    stodge said:

    So every civil servant has an allocated desk?

    There aren't many offices with a 100% utilisation rate - every desk occupied all the time. It means the office footprint of Government departments is far too large and the space should be sold off. These old buildings might look nice on the outside but they aren't fit for purpose as a modern workplace.
    Too many desks, not enough meeting rooms. Plenty of organisations can redress that balance with the New Normal.

    Anyone looking to buy a second hand desk should be able to pick up a bargain.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556

    Never mind pineapple pizza, the Swedes have come up with something better: ham and banana pizza.

    image

    Good grief. Reject their NATO application NOW!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    The British Government hasn't done anything with this idea yet. Much like the Danes.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though.
    OK, so: thought experiment. Late January 1942, you get shown accurate and detailed minutes of the Wannsee Conference.

    "The Nazis haven't done anything with this idea yet.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though."

    Adequate response?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Do they not realise that both of us have been relegated from the Premier League ?
    Come on the Premier League has 20 teams! Including a fair number of whipping boys.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,364
    ydoethur said:

    Certainly Sir Humphrey would be a shining light in the current civil service...
    Jim Hacker did try to abolish the Department of Education.

    Didn't succeed, but his heart was in the right place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    IshmaelZ said:

    OK, so: thought experiment. Late January 1942, you get shown accurate and detailed minutes of the Wannsee Conference.

    "The Nazis haven't done anything with this idea yet.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though."

    Adequate response?
    Well, no, because the mass gassing had actually started some time in advance of the Wannsee Conference. It had been called to inform other departments of what was happening as it would now start to impinge on their work.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556

    Jim Hacker did try to abolish the Department of Education.

    Didn't succeed, but his heart was in the right place.
    And in his day there were only 2000 not 5000 of the Oedipus Complexers...
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,689

    Is it the same ship, or is it like Trigger’s broom?
    This is a high-brow site. Ship of Theseus, if you please!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556

    This is a high-brow site. Ship of Theseus, if you please!
    Can we compromise on the Low King's Axe?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    edited April 2022

    Too many desks, not enough meeting rooms. Plenty of organisations can redress that balance with the New Normal.

    Anyone looking to buy a second hand desk should be able to pick up a bargain.
    This is what we are seeing. I thought we would see a huge reduction in office space but instead what's happening is an extensive re-purposing of that space away from desks and cubicles to open plan collaboration spaces, networking areas and, as you say, meeting areas of variable capacity.

    A real revolution in ergonomics.

    Some, however, are going further - I believe Durham CC are going to sell their new £50 million HQ building to the University:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-tyne-61154878
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    OK, so: thought experiment. Late January 1942, you get shown accurate and detailed minutes of the Wannsee Conference.

    "The Nazis haven't done anything with this idea yet.

    Doesn't stop the usual whingeing and thoroughly predictable hand-wringing though."

    Adequate response?
    So you're comparing the proposed processing of asylum seekers in Rwanda to the Holocaust. Well once again you show yourself to be thoroughly level-headed and completely sane.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786
    JRM is an unthinking idiot. There's a vast array of jobs in the Civil Service; for some, attendance at the office is essential, for others, it's not - it depends on the precise role. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the changes brought about by the pandemic have increased productivity overall, and will also result in longer-term savings on office costs etc. as well.

    For example, if you have a desk-based analytical job, you're likely to be more productive at home, avoiding office-based interruptions. I've a relation who's working on a major CS energy project - he reckons he gets 50% more work done at home than in the office (as well as the improvement in work-life balance by avoiding commuting). He goes in for face-to face meetings whenever necessary, maybe once a fortnight, with other business conducted remotely. I know that's anecdotal, but it's not untypical at all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    edited April 2022

    I've been quite cautious about London all along to be honest and have said that I don't expect more than a 4% swing to Labour.

    I don't really know how things will play out in terms of anti Conservative tactical voting and churn TBH and would also expect Labour to lose ground to the Greens in some areas and maybe a bit to the LDs in Merton.

    If I had to predict I would probably predict small Tory majority in Westminster and Barnet and a small Lab majority in Wandsworth but it is possible Lab gains no councils.

    On the plus side for Labour, LDs aren't standing in every ward in some councils like Barnet however.
    If the 4% decline in Tory voteshare in London on 2018 in that poll is replicated in a 4% swing to Labour via tactical voting, then Labour would gain Wandsworth and Barnet. However the Tories would hold Westminster
  • Out for dinner again, and I’ve found another delicious meal. I had croquetas to start - one spinach, one chicken and one blue cheese. Next was “calamares embriagados”, or intoxicated squid - cooked with tomatoes, onions, garlic and loads of red wine. Now having stir fried cuttlefish with prawns, peas and mint.




  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Well, no, because the mass gassing had actually started some time in advance of the Wannsee Conference. It had been called to inform other departments of what was happening as it would now start to impinge on their work.
    Really not much of an overlap, and not very "mass," prior to Wannsee.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Do they not realise that both of us have been relegated from the Premier League ?
    Too right - India and Russia are dumps!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    IshmaelZ said:

    Really not much of an overlap, and not very "mass," prior to Wannsee.
    But where would we be without pedantry?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,677

    JRM is an unthinking idiot. There's a vast array of jobs in the Civil Service; for some, attendance at the office is essential, for others, it's not - it depends on the precise role. I wouldn't be at all surprised if the changes brought about by the pandemic have increased productivity overall, and will also result in longer-term savings on office costs etc. as well.

    For example, if you have a desk-based analytical job, you're likely to be more productive at home, avoiding office-based interruptions. I've a relation who's working on a major CS energy project - he reckons he gets 50% more work done at home than in the office (as well as the improvement in work-life balance by avoiding commuting). He goes in for face-to face meetings whenever necessary, maybe once a fortnight, with other business conducted remotely. I know that's anecdotal, but it's not untypical at all.

    JRM is just a lightweight - pay him no mind!
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    So you're comparing the proposed processing of asylum seekers in Rwanda to the Holocaust. Well once again you show yourself to be thoroughly level-headed and completely sane.
    My point was the more general one that it is possible to condemn a plan beore it has been put into execution.

    But yes, on reflection, it is the most flagrant hyperbole to connect an episode of unimaginably horrific genocide, with little old Rwanda. What was I thinking?
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    My point was the more general one that it is possible to condemn a plan beore it has been put into execution.

    But yes, on reflection, it is the most flagrant hyperbole to connect an episode of unimaginably horrific genocide, with little old Rwanda. What was I thinking?
    I don't know. What are you thinking? Very little it appears.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,367

    I have little doubt that Macron will win but personally I would prefer an incompetent fascist who would probably wreck the French economy as Hollande did to an anti British pound shop Napoleon who fails to keep any promises he makes.

    You are a fool if that's how you really think.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,786

    JRM is just a lightweight - pay him no mind!
    I know - my comment was aimed more at the PB pontificators sitting at home who think civil servants should be back in the office. But that would be discourteous, so I chose JRM as the target.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I don't know. What are you thinking? Very little it appears.
    I suspect that your problem (or rather one of them) is that you have no first hand idea of what the third world is actually like, because you have never been there. What it is, is third world. Really third world. You know the prison in Midnight Express? Same but more so.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,463

    Out for dinner again, and I’ve found another delicious meal. I had croquetas to start - one spinach, one chicken and one blue cheese. Next was “calamares embriagados”, or intoxicated squid - cooked with tomatoes, onions, garlic and loads of red wine. Now having stir fried cuttlefish with prawns, peas and mint.




    I'm watching Stanley Tucci in Milan now. When you've finished with Barcelona you should try Milan. A fantastic city. I had more fun in Milan than anywhere. The Italians have a love of life that I've never seen anywhere else. Keep going with your travelogue. It's very good
  • Roger said:

    I'm watching Stanley Tucci in Milan now. When you've finished with Barcelona you should try Milan. A fantastic city. I had more fun in Milan than anywhere. The Italians have a love of life that I've never seen anywhere else. Keep going with your travelogue. It's very good
    Thank you Roger! I’d love to head off to Milan, but sadly I have to go home on Monday and try to find a job and somewhere to live..
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,296

    I know - my comment was aimed more at the PB pontificators sitting at home who think civil servants should be back in the office. But that would be discourteous, so I chose JRM as the target.
    JRM's been very busy, I'll have you know:

    image
  • Good evening PB.

    I'm back playing cricket from next week, we've entered Last Man Stands
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    IshmaelZ said:

    I suspect that your problem (or rather one of them) is that you have no first hand idea of what the third world is actually like, because you have never been there. What it is, is third world. Really third world. You know the prison in Midnight Express? Same but more so.
    The Third World? I assume you mean "developing nations", after all we don't want to use disparaging terminology do we? You assume an awful lot, maybe because you have in your mind the idea that anyone who disagrees with you couldn't possibly have the obvious intellect and experience you do.

    Perhaps Rwanda isn't the apparent hell-hole you assume it to be - maybe you've spent time living there recently and barely escaped with your life? Maybe I've lived there for a considerable time and found it a wonderful country. Maybe. But you have no idea do you?

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135

    JRM's been very busy, I'll have you know:

    image

    @MattChorley Really cheap shot by JRM. The man is in India.

    https://twitter.com/andrewmaybin/status/1517591964170035203
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,556
    edited April 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    @MattChorley Really cheap shot by JRM. The man is in India.

    https://twitter.com/andrewmaybin/status/1517591964170035203
    Could we persuade him to stay there?

    Not that I have anything against India, you'll understand. I just don't want him anywhere near me.

    Perhaps they could exchange him for some Russian weaponry, fulfilling all criteria?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    This is a high-brow site. Ship of Theseus, if you please!
    Grandfather's axe. Which, like Triggers's Broom is a slightly different problem in scale from the Ship of Theseus.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    i weekend: Johnson fears ‘avalanche’ of fines as Tory unrest grows #tomorrowspaperstoday https://twitter.com/BBCHelena/status/1517595873756200960/photo/1
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,073
    Carnyx said:

    Thank you. Some absolutely fascinating graphs and diagrams there.

    And for our PB Village Tory,

    "This goes beyond mere equity. The party faces a fight for its survival as the boomer cohort passes on. In the long run, how can a party which stands for the preservation and low taxation of capital survive if later cohorts do not accumulate any capital?

    Inheritance won’t save it. The average millennial is set to receive theirs in their mid-sixties - well beyond their fertile years, and well beyond when they might hope to build a foundation for their later life (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2020). Leaving aside the distributive impact of inheritance (which is essentially untaxed), where the privileged are given a springboard well beyond necessity."
    It also ignores the fact most people are still on the property ladder, at least with a mortgage, by 39.

    Yes fewer 20 and early 30 year olds own property and are voting Tory than in the early 1990s but more pensioners are voting Conservative and over 40s are still voting Tory. Hence the Tory majority in 2019 was bigger than in 1992
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,135
    “If Boris Johnson goes soon, the next Prime Minister will be Ben Wallace the Defense Secretary”

    @AndrewMarr9, @anoosh_c, and @freddiejh8 discuss partygate, Boris Johnson’s survival, and who the next Tory leader could be.

    Watch here: https://youtu.be/Rxq-8kXYc1I https://twitter.com/NewStatesman/status/1517594092468940800/video/1
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,620
    algarkirk said:

    Grandfather's axe. Which, like Triggers's Broom is a slightly different problem in scale from the Ship of Theseus.

    HMS Victory is getting a bit that way.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,483
    Slovenia votes on Sunday and we have the final Mediana poll out.

    It puts Robert Golob's Svoboda movement just ahead of Janez Jansa's Slovenian Democratic Party. Other polls suggest a small lead for Jansa but either way it looks very close.

    Mediana has Svoboda on 26.1% with SDS on 24.4% .

    Perhaps encouraging for Golob, the Social Democrats are on 7.8% and the Left on 7.7% tied with the pro-Jansa Christian Democrats. Alenka Bratusek's Party also looks likely to be in the new National Assembly with 5.8%.

    Jansa and his allies are on just 35.2% and from this distance it seems possible Golob could build a majority centrist coalition perhaps with the Social Democrats and the Bratusek list supported by the Left.

    We'll see if this poll is anywhere near the truth on Sunday evening.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Out for dinner again, and I’ve found another delicious meal. I had croquetas to start - one spinach, one chicken and one blue cheese. Next was “calamares embriagados”, or intoxicated squid - cooked with tomatoes, onions, garlic and loads of red wine. Now having stir fried cuttlefish with prawns, peas and mint.




    Are you positive that "croquetas" are not "croaking tiny tortoises"? Best ask your waiter!
This discussion has been closed.