2022 once again the betting favorite for BoJo’s exit – politicalbetting.com
Comments
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An insightful post.SouthamObserver said:
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.StuartDickson said:
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?SouthamObserver said:
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann1 -
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.0 -
I agree completely Bart. It is madness. You were very vocal about it at the time and were absolutely correct in your analysis.BartholomewRoberts said:
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
1 -
Bit late. Culloden was the end of the Wars of the Covenant.Malmesbury said:
What happens when the series of pretenders start... Culloden?IshmaelZ said:
Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.ydoethur said:
They're good Stewarts of the body?StuartDickson said:
Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.JACK_W said:
We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..MikeSmithson said:Test
That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.
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Let's keep it real shall we? That's just blue Skye thinking.Malmesbury said:
What happens when the series of pretenders start... Culloden?IshmaelZ said:
Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.ydoethur said:
They're good Stewarts of the body?StuartDickson said:
Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.JACK_W said:
We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..MikeSmithson said:Test
That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.0 -
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.1
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I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”Nigelb said:The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
It’s very different0 -
So it is for targeting Russian artillery - which requires significantly longer range than tank busting.
The Phoenix Ghost drone for Ukraine can
- take off vertically
- fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target
- operate at night using its infrared sensors and
- is effective against medium armored targets
- https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/15173323397683322880 -
Committee chair & former minister Tobias Ellwood says that the war in Ukraine can no longer be used "as a fig leaf" to distract from the situation in No10. He adds "more and more MPs" believe it's time for the question of leadership in Downing Street to be looked at.
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/15174056405573099530 -
I'd start worrying about the food industry itself, at this rate, with world food prices and shortages, and the farmers and fishermen already screwed over the Brexit promises of roast unicorn for dinner every Sunday. Wouldn't like to be a beef or pork farmer at the moment.Taz said:
I agree completely Bart. It is madness.BartholomewRoberts said:
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through0 -
BoZo's latest cosplay adventure is not looking like a genius move at this point...0
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I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.0 -
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
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That's just cave-illing.IshmaelZ said:
Let's keep it real shall we? That's just blue Skye thinking.Malmesbury said:
What happens when the series of pretenders start... Culloden?IshmaelZ said:
Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.ydoethur said:
They're good Stewarts of the body?StuartDickson said:
Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.JACK_W said:
We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..MikeSmithson said:Test
That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.0 -
Apropos of nothing in particular...
https://twitter.com/WWIIpix/status/1517379849962364928
This day in 1945, SS-Obergruppenführer Steiner refused to attack with Army Detachment upon realizing his units were inadequate and understrength to counterattack at Berlin. Hitler fell into a tearful rage against his generals, and declared that the war was lost.0 -
I'm not disagreeing with that at all. I'm saying it's an easier choice to make when not being forced into political theater by the leader.Nigelb said:
I think we're beyond that.kle4 said:
I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.Nigelb said:
They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.kle4 said:The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.0 -
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?StillWaters said:
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
1 -
The rest of the party is non-cerebral. They are, quite literally, too thick.Taz said:
I agree completely Bart. It is madness. You were very vocal about it at the time and were absolutely correct in your analysis.BartholomewRoberts said:
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through0 -
Oh dear...
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/15174068423136542720 -
I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
8 -
The former 2 the only postwar PMs to win 10 years in power and 3 consecutive general elections too and Johnson the only PM other than Blair since Thatcher to win a majority over 50StillWaters said:
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
0 -
There is only wan keir.ydoethur said:
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?StillWaters said:
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
2 -
In most minds, one of the signs of a good leader is to ensure that there is at least one, preferably several, successors ready.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
Boris is not a good leader.
(Though in some ways, leaving him in place to take the rap in 2024 might be best, in a "nature's way is sometimes harsh" sort of way. The events of 1990 cast a long shadow over the Conservatives, and annointing and deposing BoJo within 3 years is taking the Mickey.)0 -
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.kamski said:
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?StuartDickson said:
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.ydoethur said:
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.0 -
The wan keir stands opposite Starker at the despatch box, trying to mass debate with him...StuartDickson said:
There is only wan keir.ydoethur said:
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?StillWaters said:
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
1 -
My own MP, an ultra loyalist has told me he would have voted with Labour yesterday had the vote gone ahead.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
I get the impression Johnson's accepted contrition in the HoC Chamber on Tuesday was quickly undone by his unrepentant, ebullient presentation to Conservative MPs a little later.2 -
Depends what you mean by 'ancient,' of course. Scotland has a reasonable claim to date from the 840s, England from about the 930s.kle4 said:
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.kamski said:
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?StuartDickson said:
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.ydoethur said:
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.0 -
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.0 -
Oi! What about the Faroes?!StuartDickson said:
An insightful post.SouthamObserver said:
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.StuartDickson said:
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?SouthamObserver said:
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann
Lundy?0 -
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?StuartDickson said:
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
Edit: whatever one thinks personally, there's no doubt about his attack on them for spoiling the antique virtue of the Roman.0 -
We are loving it CarnyxCarnyx said:IN other news, weather so dry on the West Coast of Scotland that a wildfire warning has been issued.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20084760.extreme-risk-wildfires-declared-weekend-fire-rescue-service/0 -
Not sure how BoZo intends to sell this to the "ship 'em to Rwanda" voters...
Indian PM Modi says he wants to 'further strengthen' the 'living bridge' between the UK and India.
Appears to be a call for London to let more Indians migrate to the UK.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/15174078904828190721 -
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.1 -
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.nico679 said:Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53
Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout1 -
Cool overcast here - NE wind off the North Sea; we had a haar overnight.malcolmg said:
We are loving it CarnyxCarnyx said:IN other news, weather so dry on the West Coast of Scotland that a wildfire warning has been issued.
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20084760.extreme-risk-wildfires-declared-weekend-fire-rescue-service/0 -
Although that was made up, of course.Carnyx said:
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?StuartDickson said:
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
By contrast, hard to overstate the impact of sections of the media in the madness that has gripped the Tory party. Heck, some of them (Gove and Johnson) are even senior figures in the government.1 -
You win.ydoethur said:
The wan keir stands opposite Starker at the despatch box, trying to mass debate with him...StuartDickson said:
There is only wan keir.ydoethur said:
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?StillWaters said:
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.SouthamObserver said:The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
Post of the week. Heck, the month.0 -
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive0 -
Well, a Gibbon on the Christians treatment would be even more appropriate in that case, even if it turns out to be true ...ydoethur said:
Although that was made up, of course.Carnyx said:
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?StuartDickson said:
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
By contrast, hard to overstate the impact of sections of the media in the madness that has gripped the Tory party. Heck, some of them (Gove and Johnson) are even senior figures in the government.0 -
No difference , they are still barstewards of the first order, just repeating what they have done many times before.StillWaters said:
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”Nigelb said:The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
It’s very different2 -
I see that the report here that the Privileges Committee has lay members was mistaken - it does, so it does have a built-in Tory majority.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/21/what-is-the-commons-privileges-committee-and-how-powerful-is-it
As others have said, two of the Tories have fairly marginal seats, so may not be in a mood to be too reckless about clearing the PM. But I suspect that in practice the issue will really come down to whether most Tory MPs have come to feel they'd be better off with an unknown successor at the whim of members, and that in turn hinges on the local elections and the Sue Gray report (I don't think more fines will do it by themselves).
Tories who fancy a different PM may therefore have an actual incentive to vote Labour in two weeks even if they have no sympathy for Labour whatsoever (yes, I have an ulterior motive!). It's a curious state of affairs.0 -
You never actually negotiate anything in real life do you?Scott_xP said:Oh dear...
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/15174068423136542723 -
I do believe in tipping points. I think standard bluster tends to work. I will be surprised if pleased if, to their shock, the PM and his inner circle find that the angry Tories really meant it. That they didn't think the time was right, but they are not, as he is, pretending to think it important until they can get past it. That they actually think it is important.RochdalePioneers said:
The "just bluster through it" defence collapsed utterly yesterday.IshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive0 -
Deeply flawed analogies are my favourite kind.StuartDickson said:
An insightful post.SouthamObserver said:
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.StuartDickson said:
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?SouthamObserver said:
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann0 -
Again, my experience only is that Iceland sits a little apart. People there seem to look to Denmark, to the Faeroes and perhaps to Greenland. I don't think they feel an equally close affinity with Norway, Sweden and Finland. They are step-brothers rather than blood brothers.StuartDickson said:
An insightful post.SouthamObserver said:
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.StuartDickson said:
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?SouthamObserver said:
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann
The way I see it is that Sweden is the bigger Nordic brother that the rest of them admire, slightly mistrust and relentlessly and affectionately take the piss out of.
0 -
Hmmm. In joint statements standing together Indian PM Modi says he wants trade deal by end of year but Boris Johnson says he wants it done by Diwali in October.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/15174099707527536640 -
🚨🚨🚨NEW: the Westminster farce also leads to farcical policy-making: like ordering Englands top 20 cities to increase house building by 35%...even when some were already missing their old targets! With @GeorgeNHammond & killer graphix by @theboysmithy/1
https://www.ft.com/content/f5186935-aec3-4e16-b5ba-a29d4a1b6af70 -
Les Ramblas...don't you just long to be back in the EU? Those multi lingual conversations was one of the things I loved...BlancheLivermore said:I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..2 -
If you mean a vote by his mps following the submission of letters then half his mps plus 1 need to vote him outrottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
On the other hand if there is a vonc in the HOC it will fail1 -
Yes, you are right and we saw when COVID first came nations started barring exports of products like Rice and Wheat that will probably happen again.Carnyx said:
I'd start worrying about the food industry itself, at this rate, with world food prices and shortages, and the farmers and fishermen already screwed over the Brexit promises of roast unicorn for dinner every Sunday. Wouldn't like to be a beef or pork farmer at the moment.Taz said:
I agree completely Bart. It is madness.BartholomewRoberts said:
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
We will not be able to rely on Ukraine for wheat or sunflower oil due to the conflict.
The govt will not be able to keep blaming COVID or Ukraine or anything else for their failings.0 -
Boris certainly hasn't.StillWaters said:
You never actually negotiate anything in real life do you?Scott_xP said:Oh dear...
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1517406842313654272
Once again, he's created gentle time pressure on himself which could lead to him swallowing a worse deal as a result.1 -
There are many things to attack Boris on but that is patheticScott_xP said:Oh dear...
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/15174068423136542722 -
Granted that's not ancient ancient. I wasnt using it in a professional way. But as relatively united and consistent polities go it's pretty ancient when you consider the rise of the nation state and explosion of countries in recent centuries.ydoethur said:
Depends what you mean by 'ancient,' of course. Scotland has a reasonable claim to date from the 840s, England from about the 930s.kle4 said:
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.kamski said:
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?StuartDickson said:
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.ydoethur said:
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.0 -
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.HYUFD said:
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
He couldn't possibly carry on ?0 -
8 week discrepancy. Wow.Scott_xP said:Hmmm. In joint statements standing together Indian PM Modi says he wants trade deal by end of year but Boris Johnson says he wants it done by Diwali in October.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/15174099707527536646 -
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.3 -
He'd be happy to carry on on a 52% score.Taz said:
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.HYUFD said:
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
He couldn't possibly carry on ?0 -
And his disappearance to India on the day of the debateMexicanpete said:
My own MP, an ultra loyalist has told me he would have voted with Labour yesterday had the vote gone ahead.rottenborough said:Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
I get the impression Johnson's accepted contrition in the HoC Chamber on Tuesday was quickly undone by his unrepentant, ebullient presentation to Conservative MPs a little later.0 -
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.0 -
What numbers do we need for 51.9%?Carnyx said:
He'd be happy to carry on on a 52% score.Taz said:
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.HYUFD said:
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
He couldn't possibly carry on ?0 -
Even more so now that such a vast proportion of the population have now completely abandoned old-fashioned news outlets. For example, I can’t think of any friends or family under the age of 70 who insist on consuming the main tv news every night.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.1 -
If Le Pen wins on Sunday, can I be the first to wish you a Merry Christmas, as they will all have come at once for you.HYUFD said:
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.nico679 said:Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53
Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
It is a very fair point Scott makes.StillWaters said:
You never actually negotiate anything in real life do you?Scott_xP said:Oh dear...
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1517406842313654272
Johnson's go to campaign photo opportunity is to play on JCBs. Always a winner, but not a good look when a Muslim shanty town is being razed to the ground by Modi using JCBs.
Don't shoot Scott, he's just the messenger.0 -
It is over and likely as soon as next monthHYUFD said:
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive0 -
186 to 173, I think.ydoethur said:
What numbers do we need for 51.9%?Carnyx said:
He'd be happy to carry on on a 52% score.Taz said:
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.HYUFD said:
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win itIshmaelZ said:
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.HYUFD said:Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
He couldn't possibly carry on ?0 -
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?0 -
You were his biggest fan. In another guise I remember you saying he was the greatest Prime Minister since Thatcher and would possibly end up the best since the war. Surely a piece of birthday cake shouldn't deny the country the possibility of such talent and leadership?BartholomewRoberts said:
Never say never.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.
History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.1 -
What utter tripe you post at timesScott_xP said:Hmmm. In joint statements standing together Indian PM Modi says he wants trade deal by end of year but Boris Johnson says he wants it done by Diwali in October.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1517409970752753664
0 -
When was it erected?StillWaters said:
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”Nigelb said:The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
It’s very different0 -
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/0 -
It's a BoZo press conference...Big_G_NorthWales said:What utter tripe you post at times
1 -
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to reportBartholomewRoberts said:
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?2 -
The weather could play a factor with turnout , it tends to effect certain demographics more than others .HYUFD said:
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.nico679 said:Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53
Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
Currently the weather on Sunday looks showery across France with also some longer periods of rain in places.
Some models have Paris mostly dry for much of the day which will of course help Macron . The piece of good news from the Odoxa for Macron is the breakdown in former Mélenchons support .
The previous Odoxa had Macron 31% Le Pen 29%
The latest poll has Macron 43% Le Pen 24%
The stable race shown is down to some better figures amongst other candidates transfers for Le Pen .
1 -
Jill Mortimer, whoever is the real one, evidently has not heard of blue ticks. The people of Hartlepool must hope their MP never tries running with scissors. More seriously, why is this not in chapter one of Parliament's IT Guide for Honourable Members?RochdalePioneers said:
Teesside Tories were just as bad. It ended up with the Houchen / Vickers cabal running everything and anyone who wasn't them kicked out. OK so thanks to the Johnson / Corbyn pact they picked up a stack of seats, but they're going to lose most of them next time.IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/RochdalePioneers said:
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.StuartDickson said:
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.
Enjoy this Jill Mortimer MP vs Jill Mortimer MP Twitter spat. https://twitter.com/JillMortimer4HP/status/15172261205041315900 -
Surprised both main parties lose a point and conservative still at the 34% markScott_xP said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/
I would have expected a wider gap1 -
In all fairness to Johnson he did suggest many, many years ago (I believe during the EURef campaign, although that may be wrong) that once the detested by some Leavers, Eastern Europeans had left post Brexit, any employment shortfalls could be made up by "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". Leavers knew this and were clearly comfortable with an influx of Indian workers, as presumably did RedWall Johnsonian voters. And good on 'em!Scott_xP said:Not sure how BoZo intends to sell this to the "ship 'em to Rwanda" voters...
Indian PM Modi says he wants to 'further strengthen' the 'living bridge' between the UK and India.
Appears to be a call for London to let more Indians migrate to the UK.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/15174078904828190722 -
Costa Jenkin Carter Farris. Neutral cool no comment cool per @AlastairMeeks in FebruaryBartholomewRoberts said:
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f0 -
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.Carnyx said:
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.1 -
https://www.google.com/maps/place/Memorial+Zhertv+Totalitaryzmu/@50.0807691,36.2607995,287m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m12!1m6!3m5!1s0x0:0x99dc79c2e5e31e54!2sMemorial+to+the+victims+of+totalitarianism!8m2!3d50.080477!4d36.261663!3m4!1s0x0:0x52e77056b9500688!8m2!3d50.0810745!4d36.2622905OldKingCole said:
When was it erected?StillWaters said:
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”Nigelb said:The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
It’s very different
It is out of town, in a forest - just off a road. Unless there are Ukrainian troops in the forest, dug in, why would you be shelling this area?0 -
Wow! I’d missed that. Thanks.IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/RochdalePioneers said:
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.StuartDickson said:
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.
A baronet is standing against the Tories in next month's council elections after claiming he has been expelled from the Scottish Conservative Party. Sir James Angus Rhoderick Neil McGrigor, known to everyone as "Jamie", is contesting the Oban South and Isles ward in Argyll and Bute as an independent, a council seat he had held for the Tories since 2017. Prior to that, he had been a Conservative MSP for the Highlands and Islands, serving in Holyrood from 1999 to 2016.0 -
Those earning upto £34,000 pa I understand will see a fall in their tax from 1st JulyDecrepiterJohnL said:
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.Carnyx said:
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.1 -
Andy Carter, Alberto Costa, Laura Farris and Bernard Jenkin.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to reportBartholomewRoberts said:
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
I don't believe any of them have commented. Jenkin should be a natural supporter, but wouldn't be surprised if he's someone Boris has lost over the last six months.0 -
Indeed, anyone earning under £34,000 will see a cut in the NIC they pay. With those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest rise.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.Carnyx said:
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Plus the state pension is rising below inflation too so pensioners are not immune from rising inflation1 -
It may be that someone told Boris that Diwali marks the Indian new year, which is only true with half a dozen asterisks and footnotes. Maybe a dozen.Scott_xP said:
It's a BoZo press conference...Big_G_NorthWales said:What utter tripe you post at times
0 -
But Roger, they’re still happening now! And nobody mentioned Brexit (unless that was what the old dude was ranting about)Roger said:
Les Ramblas...don't you just long to be back in the EU? Those multi lingual conversations was one of the things I loved...BlancheLivermore said:I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
And I could be having as many monolingual conversations as I like here, with the massive number of Americans I’ve heard. On almost every street I’ve walked down I’ve noticed their (usually loudly voiced) accents.2 -
If the Tories stay at 34%+ then Boris likely survivesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Surprised both main parties lose a point and conservative still at the 34% markScott_xP said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/
I would have expected a wider gap0 -
Tory MPs could not take the skin off a rice pudding.
The latest way they will try to rationalise it is by saying that he did not deliberately mislead Parliament. He did it by accident or did not mean to or some such nonsense.
Apart from a few brave souls they are being pathetic, as pathetic as Labour MPs were with Corbyn. Have they learnt nothing from that? Apparently not.3 -
"Replace your Polish neighbours with Indians" is not what was on the side of the bus, or that NHS ad, or Fucking Farage's poster.Mexicanpete said:Leavers knew this and were clearly comfortable with an influx of Indian workers, as presumably did RedWall Johnsonian voters. And good on 'em!
2 -
On why Boris Johnson was well placed to exploit the realignment of British politics, how he’s damaged his popularity with his natural supporters & how he’ll try to win it back. My latest piece for @NewStatesman. https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/04/boris-johnson-boasts-that-only-he-can-win-the-red-wall-but-hes-losing-it0
-
Absolutely not denying the culpability of Russia in this whole messmalcolmg said:
No difference , they are still barstewards of the first order, just repeating what they have done many times before.StillWaters said:
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”Nigelb said:The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
It’s very different0 -
"Were" is the operative word. Though I'll correct you, I never said that he could possibly end up the best since the war, there was never a chance he could be better than Thacher.Roger said:
You were his biggest fan. In another guise I remember you saying he was the greatest Prime Minister since Thatcher and would possibly end up the best since the war. Surely a piece of birthday cake shouldn't deny the country the possibility of such talent and leadership?BartholomewRoberts said:
Never say never.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.
History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.
All leaders have a best-before date and some may come sooner than later. Thatcher was herself the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill but that didn't mean that it was wrong to ultimately oust her.
The fact that Thatcher had to leave office doesn't diminish her achievements. She was still a great PM, but ultimately she had to go. The same goes for Boris, he's been a great PM but been is past-tense, it is well past the point for him to go now.0 -
Also a new YouGovScott_xP said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/
Labour 39
Tory 33
LibDem 9
Green 8
0 -
Labour MPs did not remove Blair after he misled Parliament over WMD as the reason to take us to war in IraqCyclefree said:Tory MPs could not take the skin off a rice pudding.
The latest way they will try to rationalise it is by saying that he did not deliberatelymislead Parliament. He did it by accident or did not mean to or some such nonsense.
Apart from a few brave souls they are being pathetic, as pathetic as Labour MPs were with Corbyn. Have they learnt nothing from that? Apparently not.0 -
Not only grossly flawed, but incomplete. 😉StillWaters said:
Oi! What about the Faroes?!StuartDickson said:
An insightful post.SouthamObserver said:
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.StuartDickson said:
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?SouthamObserver said:
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.StuartDickson said:The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann
Lundy?0 -
Rory Stewart really did shit the bed. Self destructing his career just as it was getting going, over a point of principle that was really irrelevant in the grand course.
The other what-if is Osborne. He might have stayed quietly on the backbenchers biding his time. A few sensible comments through the pandemic, don’t get drawn into the Brexit wars. He’d now be the slam dunk choice.0 -
But too late for May's elections.DecrepiterJohnL said:
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.Carnyx said:
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.Stuartinromford said:
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.kle4 said:
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.Taz said:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.Scott_xP said:Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
And a rounding error compared with all the other stuff going on.1 -
Thanks. So 2 cools and 2 neutrals doesn't look fertile ground there for Boris.IshmaelZ said:
Costa Jenkin Carter Farris. Neutral cool no comment cool per @AlastairMeeks in FebruaryBartholomewRoberts said:
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f0 -
Simple - Remain is no longer an option.SouthamObserver said:
How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.0 -
London Tory candidates stand as ‘Local Conservatives’ in election in bid to deflect partygateRochdalePioneers said:
Teesside Tories were just as bad. It ended up with the Houchen / Vickers cabal running everything and anyone who wasn't them kicked out. OK so thanks to the Johnson / Corbyn pact they picked up a stack of seats, but they're going to lose most of them next time.IshmaelZ said:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/RochdalePioneers said:
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.StuartDickson said:
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”RochdalePioneers said:Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.
Enjoy this Jill Mortimer MP vs Jill Mortimer MP Twitter spat. https://twitter.com/JillMortimer4HP/status/1517226120504131590
More than 400 London Tories will stand as “Local Conservatives” in the upcoming elections in what has been branded an attempt to distance themselves from the woes of the national party.
Dozens of prospective candidates in Birmingham will also be listed under the label on the ballot paper on May 5 for the first time.
Evening Standard0 -
I read somewhere that there's nothing to stop the parties swapping out the members & that Labour might put some heavyweights on it. I can't find the link now.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Andy Carter, Alberto Costa, Laura Farris and Bernard Jenkin.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to reportBartholomewRoberts said:
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.rottenborough said:
I'm not convinced.RochdalePioneers said:
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.rottenborough said:Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
I don't believe any of them have commented. Jenkin should be a natural supporter, but wouldn't be surprised if he's someone Boris has lost over the last six months.
I'm not sure quite what gives HYUFD the authority to proclaim a voting percentage which leads Johnson to survive. It seems to me arbitrary and lacking any factual basis. Which I guess is fine as long as it's recognised to be little more than declaring the winning lotto numbers ahead of the draw.
There are a number of significant reasons why Johnson may not now survive the year.1 -
Nope. Sea change this week. All over.HYUFD said:
If the Tories stay at 34%+ then Boris likely survivesBig_G_NorthWales said:
Surprised both main parties lose a point and conservative still at the 34% markScott_xP said:Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/
I would have expected a wider gap0
