2022 once again the betting favorite for BoJo’s exit – politicalbetting.com

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2022 once again the betting favorite for BoJo’s exit – politicalbetting.com

What we saw with the approach to yesterday’s Commons move to have an inquiry into whether BJ has been honest with the House was that the initial Tory plan went out of the window.

Read the full story here

MikeSmithson

Test

kle4

Interesting the 5/6% of non Tories who believe Boris is genuinely sorry he broke the rules.

On the basis he is sorry it has caused him such grief, ir because they are pretty forgiving souls and accept his contrition?

As for the exit, it has been heartening that at least a handful were genuine that they were waiting to see if there were fines before making up their minds rather than just delaying for it's own sake, so the heat has definitely risen. He's a bit rattled, as if he cannot quite believe this is still causing grief. But it takes so much to actually turn remove him and there's no real obvious moments he could go quietly. So a drawn out process looks likely.

swing_voter

He's wobbling but not fatally.... Wakefield may hasten things a bit (esp if May locals pan out badly)...but I dont see the Backbench MPs ready to stick the knife in.

kle4

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

Nigelb

The striking thing from this YouGov polling is the Tory voter split. Johnson does not even have a majority of his own party supporters believing that he is genuinely sorry. Not a good place to be...

The belief/knowledge that Johnson is an inveterate liar is now a matter of political consensus.
No serious party can allow such a politician to lead them for much longer. As a few Conservative MPs have, to their credit, publicly acknowledged.

Nigelb

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

Nigelb

Granted it’s the Guardian, so not unbiased, but still an interesting account of the sequence of events.

How senior Tories’ frantic efforts failed to block Boris Johnson inquiry
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/21/how-senior-tories-frantic-efforts-failed-to-block-boris-johnson-inquiry

Extraordinary to have a majority of 80, and be effectively ‘in office, but not in power’.
” It’s open mic night at the Dog and Duck and we’re looking for anyone with a shred of skill at party management,” an ex-cabinet minister smirked as they left the chamber.…

Nigelb

Mariupol: Satellite images suggest mass graves dug near besieged city
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61183056

StuartDickson

swing_voter said:

He's wobbling but not fatally.... Wakefield may hasten things a bit (esp if May locals pan out badly)...but I dont see the Backbench MPs ready to stick the knife in.

Boris:
10 points off the pace in England.
30 point off the pace in Scotland.
40 points off the pace in Wales.
AWOL in Ireland.

Conservative MPs are out of their tiny minds.

kle4

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

Morris_Dancer

Good morning, everyone.

Yet again, I'll believe this when I see it. Recent history is not one of decisive action by Conservative MPs.

F1: a stupidly formatted weekend, so the 'pre-qualifying' ramble will be pre-sprint race and up tomorrow. Small chance I'll offer a qualifying tip but unlikely (think it's at 4pm).

mwadams

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Yet again, I'll believe this when I see it. Recent history is not one of decisive action by Conservative MPs.

F1: a stupidly formatted weekend, so the 'pre-qualifying' ramble will be pre-sprint race and up tomorrow. Small chance I'll offer a qualifying tip but unlikely (think it's at 4pm).

I agree that abstention is easier than action (as we saw yesterday). But "the men in grey suits" must be getting close to tipping point. If Johnson has lost the PCP's *active* support (and surely he has?), maybe they are the ones to tell Boris it would be better to go, as with Margaret Thatcher.

Nigelb

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

DougSeal

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

Playing devil’s advocate, I don’t think they know what to do. Act now and who do the members support? In 1990 MPs had total control over the succession - now now.

StuartDickson

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

mwadams

DougSeal said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

Playing devil’s advocate, I don’t think they know what to do. Act now and who do the members support? In 1990 MPs had total control over the succession - now now.

MPs still have total control...if but a single candidate puts themselves forward to the membership.

OldKingCole

DougSeal said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

Playing devil’s advocate, I don’t think they know what to do. Act now and who do the members support? In 1990 MPs had total control over the succession - now now.

Good morning everyone. Not (yet?) as bright as yesterday.

On topic I agree with Mr S. AIUI there are two groups of Con MP's; those who have a traditionalist view and others of a more radical bent, who frequently represent Red Wall constituencies.

RochdalePioneers

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

DougSeal

mwadams said:

DougSeal said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

Playing devil’s advocate, I don’t think they know what to do. Act now and who do the members support? In 1990 MPs had total control over the succession - now now.

MPs still have total control...if but a single candidate puts themselves forward to the membership.

Quite

Jonathan

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Nigelb

Morris_Dancer said:

Good morning, everyone.

Yet again, I'll believe this when I see it. Recent history is not one of decisive action by Conservative MPs.

F1: a stupidly formatted weekend, so the 'pre-qualifying' ramble will be pre-sprint race and up tomorrow. Small chance I'll offer a qualifying tip but unlikely (think it's at 4pm).

Worse, it's very likely to rain during the only free practice session.
The struggling teams (cough, Mercedes...) thus have no chance to test at all.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Javid needs a story for his non-Dom status having told us all we have a moral duty to pay more tax.

SouthamObserver

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?

OnlyLivingBoy

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Javid needs a story for his non-Dom status having told us all we have a moral duty to pay more tax.

I was young and I needed the money?

SouthamObserver

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.

Nigelb

DougSeal said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

Nigelb said:

kle4 said:

The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.

They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.

I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.

I think we're beyond that.
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.

Playing devil’s advocate, I don’t think they know what to do. Act now and who do the members support? In 1990 MPs had total control over the succession - now now.

They don't - but they still won't in six months' time, or a year ... etc.
Unless they are determined to go into the next election with Boris, which now seems implausible, then delay just costs them more pain.
The may elections give them a trigger. They need to pull it.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Javid needs a story for his non-Dom status having told us all we have a moral duty to pay more tax.

That’s a while ago. I suspect hit non-Dominic status might help him. He’s the only one that crossed Boris and survived.

mwadams

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?

Only works if noone stands against him. This seems unlikely, but not impossible.

RochdalePioneers

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

The tax avoider? Won't they want someone squeaky clean this time?

OldKingCole

OnlyLivingBoy said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Javid needs a story for his non-Dom status having told us all we have a moral duty to pay more tax.

I was young and I needed the money?

I was just thinking the same thing. In the world in which I moved, etc., etc. Apologies, abandoned such status when I entered politics.
If that were demonstrably true, he'd get away with it.

Trouble is, that as a result of experience with our current PM, the public, or at least the press is going to demand higher standards. (Again?)

Big_G_NorthWales

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

Good morning

Your question gets to the heart of it

It is my understanding that the only reason Boris is still in office is because his mps cannot agree on his successor, let alone agree a single candidate

I do know many conservative mps are very conflicted

No matter Mike is correct it is not if but when and I believe he is unlikely to be in office at the end of May following more FPNs, photographs and a poor local election result

I would just say the chaos he is causing for his mps is shocking and even worse he doesn't seem to care as he clings onto office

RochdalePioneers

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?

Did May get past the membership? Remember that the party knows its membership is a problem. So I won't be surprised to see them coalesce around a unity candidate.

Hunt is the only one who has shown a calm pair of hands and leadership skills who hasn't had to debase himself defending the clown show.

malcolmg

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Oh dear

Nigelb

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

It's likely to be whoever can demonstrate a capacity for leadership in the next few weeks. That doesn't sound much like Javid.

Jonathan

RochdalePioneers said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

The tax avoider? Won't they want someone squeaky clean this time?

Ahem. It is the Tory party. They don’t do squeaky clean. We have to ask who can manipulate MPs and who appeals to the geriocracy in the country.

Nigelb

The example of Sunak is also a lesson for would be contenders who might hesitate too long.

Jonathan

On the MP part, who is the unity candidate acceptable to Boris’ supporters and objectors alike. Javid ticks that box.

I am curious about Mark Harper who broke ranks early. As an ex whip does he have any connections?

Stuartinromford

If the choice boils down to "undo some of the damage of 2019-22" vs. "the revolution must go on", which way do MPs jump? Which way does the party membership jump?

Nigelb

Jonathan said:

On the MP part, who is the unity candidate acceptable to Boris’ supporters and objectors alike. Javid ticks that box.

I am curious about Mark Harper who broke ranks early. As an ex whip does he have any connections?

Both he and Baker are organisers.

Jonathan

Nigelb said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

It's likely to be whoever can demonstrate a capacity for leadership in the next few weeks. That doesn't sound much like Javid.

Often not being seen as a decisive leader is an advantage. Think about who will help me in my career. Who offers the stepping stone to the top. Javid offers salvation for current ministers and those languishing on the backbenches.

Nigelb

The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059

Big_G_NorthWales

Jonathan said:

On the MP part, who is the unity candidate acceptable to Boris’ supporters and objectors alike. Javid ticks that box.

I am curious about Mark Harper who broke ranks early. As an ex whip does he have any connections?

As I have posted I have been advised that there is no unity candidate and that is the reason Boris is unchallenged so far, but events will only get worse for Boris and his mps need to remove him and let the contest for his successor commence

Big_G_NorthWales

Stuartinromford said:

If the choice boils down to "undo some of the damage of 2019-22" vs. "the revolution must go on", which way do MPs jump? Which way does the party membership jump?

The responsibility is with conservative mps to put forward the two candidates to the membership that are best suited to the role, then let the membership decide which of the two should win the contest

Nigelb

Jonathan said:

Nigelb said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

It's likely to be whoever can demonstrate a capacity for leadership in the next few weeks. That doesn't sound much like Javid.

Often not being seen as a decisive leader is an advantage. Think about who will help me in my career. Who offers the stepping stone to the top. Javid offers salvation for current ministers and those languishing on the backbenches.

There's that - but to have a career you must first retain your seat. That is perhaps now the more pressing consideration.

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.

Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.

I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.

ydoethur

SouthamObserver said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?

If Nadine Dorries is the alternative then it might happen.

But if he were up against Truss...

SouthamObserver

The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.

Stuartinromford

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Stuartinromford said:

If the choice boils down to "undo some of the damage of 2019-22" vs. "the revolution must go on", which way do MPs jump? Which way does the party membership jump?

The responsibility is with conservative mps to put forward the two candidates to the membership that are best suited to the role, then let the membership decide which of the two should win the contest

Whilst that would be good, it still depends on some kind of implicit understanding of what the role is. To take a recruitment analogy, these days you wouldn't do the job interviews without thinking about the person spec.

So are the Conservatives looking to reverse bits of Johnsonism (if so, which bits?), or is the aim to have roughly the same direction with a different face?

Jonathan

Always befuddled me why Gove doesn’t get a look in. I appreciate he has all the wide appeal of a Baboons rear end, but he’s senior, connected and loved by the ladies.

StuartDickson

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”

How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.

JACK_W

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

CorrectHorseBattery

My sense is that this is going to end up like Brown. We will keep hearing that people are ready to strike but nothing will ever actually happen

StuartDickson

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

MarqueeMark

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Really?

If anyone cares to go through thousands of posts (I can't) they will see I was saying months back "don't rule out Hunt...." He still has a body of support from 2019 (although weakened by those who supported him moving out in the subsequent election).

I think the election for Boris' successor, however quickly that comes, will give a very good opportunity for those who have never yet held one of the great offices of state.

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Carnyx

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Divinely right.

SouthamObserver

Jonathan said:

Always befuddled me why Gove doesn’t get a look in. I appreciate he has all the wide appeal of a Baboons rear end, but he’s senior, connected and loved by the ladies.

Labour is lucky Gove is so voter repellent. In terms of intelligence and ability he is head and shoulders above anyone else the Tories have. He's their Robin Cook, without the integrity!

RochdalePioneers

StuartDickson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”

How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.

I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.

The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.

LostPassword

"The striking thing from this YouGov polling is the Tory voter split. Johnson does not even have a majority of his own party supporters believing that he is genuinely sorry."

Worth remembering that this is, I believe, current Tory voters, a somewhat reduced base. Presumably the split for Tory 2019 voters would be even worse for Johnson. We can get an inkling of that from the 50-34 split among EU Referendum Leave voters.

You would guess that the opinion of Tory 2019 voters who do not currently tell pollsters they intend to vote Tory is not that positive towards Johnson. Those are the voters the Tories will want to recover for the next GE.

StuartDickson

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.

Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?

What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.

IshmaelZ

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

RochdalePioneers

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My sense is that this is going to end up like Brown. We will keep hearing that people are ready to strike but nothing will ever actually happen

That was the case as long as the parliamentary party was willing to debase itself with "nothing to see here, lets move on" defences. Which collapsed yesterday.

A beating in the locals. Then a stack of FPNs. Then the Grey report. Then the Privileges enquiry. They don't need to skulk around plotting in the dark. The defences have collapsed, its all coming out, and the momentum against him will be unstoppable.

MPs were unwilling to block the enquiry. They will be incapable of brushing aside the mountain of evidence thrown at him day after day week after week. He is toast.

ydoethur

CorrectHorseBattery said:

My sense is that this is going to end up like Brown. We will keep hearing that people are ready to strike but nothing will ever actually happen

The difference is of course that it's extremely difficult to remove Labour leaders due to the requirement for a leadership contest which requires (a) a candidate and (b) a public declaration from a huge chunk of the PLP that they want the leader out.

Meanwhile a Tory leader can be removed by a vote of confidence which you can call for anonymously.

That doesn't mean Johnson is going anywhere, of course, just that the two parallels are inexact.

The real issue for the Tories is he should have been sacked immediately after Oswestry. They could have ridden this whole storm out if they'd done that. In fact, it might never have become a storm. They're showing in the clearest possible way that they have neither political sense nor personal integrity and it's going to be difficult for them to live that down whoever and whenever they elect a new leader.

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

It's a Bonnie system.

IshmaelZ

RochdalePioneers said:

StuartDickson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”

How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.

I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.

The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/

Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.

StuartDickson

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

Tough to get invasive flora into a MacDonald.

ydoethur

StuartDickson said:

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

Tough to get invasive flora into a MacDonald.

Well, it is without looking like a Charlie.

SouthamObserver

StuartDickson said:

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.

Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?

What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.

I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.

Carnyx

IshmaelZ said:

RochdalePioneers said:

StuartDickson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”

How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.

I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.

The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/

Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.

Just think how lucky the Tories are to have multimember voting. It'd be fatal in FPTP. OTOH this sort of shite affects the equivalent of 5 old style wards ...

If he wins they'll bring him back in instantly. Lots of so-called Independents who were Tories and will be again, and vv. We had a by election at Fort William and ... which hinged on that issue recently.

LostPassword

RochdalePioneers said:

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

Let's suppose that Johnson is given the heave shortly after the local elections (I'm not convinced, but it will have to happen eventually). Johnson isn't likely to stick around to let the Privileges Committee put the boot in. He'll quit the Commons and start giving paid speeches (and writing a book) about how he won the Ukraine War (or would have done, if he hadn't been deposed).

We'll have a by-election in Uxbridge, and Labour really ought to make two by-election gains in just a few months.

StuartDickson

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.

Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.

I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.

Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.

Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century

The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.

HYUFD

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

Scott_xP

Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)

Via @economics 👇🏾

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite

Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1

HYUFD

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

Hunt has a -22% Yougov rating with the public and got just 33% with Tory members in 2019, it won't be him.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt

If Boris goes either Wallace or Javid will be his likely replacement

RochdalePioneers

IshmaelZ said:

RochdalePioneers said:

StuartDickson said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”

How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.

I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.

The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/20/expelled-baronet-sir-jamie-mcgrigor-take-tories-scotland-vote/

Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.

Teesside Tories were just as bad. It ended up with the Houchen / Vickers cabal running everything and anyone who wasn't them kicked out. OK so thanks to the Johnson / Corbyn pact they picked up a stack of seats, but they're going to lose most of them next time.

Enjoy this Jill Mortimer MP vs Jill Mortimer MP Twitter spat. https://twitter.com/JillMortimer4HP/status/1517226120504131590

StuartDickson

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

It’s all a numbers game for you. You lack touch and feel. Especially ethics.

StillWaters

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Javid needs a story for his non-Dom status having told us all we have a moral duty to pay more tax.

He has the morality of any successful Deutsche bank employee

Scott_xP

The new Tory culture war on God ...(perhaps)
My FT mag col.
https://www.ft.com/content/33074af5-c41c-4c53-b9d0-e56e7263b31f https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1517400158413234181/photo/1

IshmaelZ

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.

mr-claypole

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

Hunt has a -22% Yougov rating with the public and got just 33% with Tory members in 2019, it won't be him.

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt

If Boris goes either Wallace or Javid will be his likely replacement

I think Javid has the non-dom thing against him and Wallace has been the right man to be defence secretary at the right time. There was a bit of an appetite for competency apparent yesterday and I think they are tired of seeing Nadine, Priti and JRM actively harming re election prospects. I think Hunt is the best choice they have. Not sure he wants it that badly though.

ydoethur

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.

The problem is that he's been finished for months. And he still hasn't left office.

Carnyx

IN other news, weather so dry on the West Coast of Scotland that a wildfire warning has been issued.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20084760.extreme-risk-wildfires-declared-weekend-fire-rescue-service/

ydoethur

Carnyx said:

IN other news, weather so dry on the West Coast of Scotland that a wildfire warning has been issued.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/20084760.extreme-risk-wildfires-declared-weekend-fire-rescue-service/

We were forecast rain on Tuesday. Turned out to be just a few spots. My garden will need watering today.

Malmesbury

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.

Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.

I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.

In the ideology of Greater Russian Nationalism, Finland is specifically mentioned as a country that needs to be destroyed.

Given that's the creed current in vogue in Moscow.....

RochdalePioneers

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

No, thats only part of it.

Your lot are standing on a platform of supporting Lies, Criminality, Malfeasance and Impropriety. An electoral beating is at hand.

And then? The Met issue another stack of FPNs. As Gary Gibbon put it, Number 10 will be the most ticketed location in the whole country. With multiple FPNs stacked on the PM personally.

And then? The unredacted Sue Grey report. And the redacted summary was so bad as to have some Tory MPs wondering how they get re-elected if this carries on.

And then? The Commons Privileges Committee conducts its first ever investigation into a sitting Prime Minister. With a veritable mountain of evidence all over the entire press.

You personally are ok with lies. With criminality. With malfeasance in public office. With impropriety. You have made that very clear those are the values, the morals you support. Thats up to you. But the electorate are harsh when faced with such things. Remember how your party got wiped out completely in Scotland because of the same misbehaviour in the 90s? Remember how Labour got smashed in the midlands and north after lying about failed delivery?

You may well be happy with lies and crookedness. But the polls you cling to will show the people of this country are not happy with it. And when you try to claim you have always been against such things we will have to drag you and David Duguid and Jacob Young and the other amoral lickspittles back to what you all said and say no.

He is toast. Anyone with honour would have gone long ago. Anyone with morals would have called him to go long ago.

RochdalePioneers

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.

The "just bluster through it" defence collapsed utterly yesterday.

Taz

Scott_xP said:

Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)

Via @economics 👇🏾

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite

Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1

This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.

I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.

Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.

Malmesbury

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

What happens when the series of pretenders start... Culloden?

algarkirk

MarqueeMark said:

Jonathan said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.

They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.

He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.

So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?

I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.

Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.

It will be Javid.

Really?

If anyone cares to go through thousands of posts (I can't) they will see I was saying months back "don't rule out Hunt...." He still has a body of support from 2019 (although weakened by those who supported him moving out in the subsequent election).

I think the election for Boris' successor, however quickly that comes, will give a very good opportunity for those who have never yet held one of the great offices of state.

Very much agree.

Only a few months ago Rishi was an apparent shoo in. If that had happened the government would now be in Non Dom/Green Card/billionairegate crisis. No-one in government is safe.

Ignore everyone currently in government; none of them have a realistic prospect of surviving the scrutiny. The only options, apart from carrying on with Boris (quite possible) is to look outside government/ministers. Hunt of course is both outside and experienced.

ydoethur

Malmesbury said:

IshmaelZ said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

JACK_W said:

MikeSmithson said:

Test

We know you're keen to get back on the PB horse but a Covid test at 4:02am is above and beyond ..

That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.

Glad to see Jacobite genes are sturdy virus repellents.

They're good Stewarts of the body?

Just think how a vaccine works. The immune system is primed against the real thing by sending it a series of pretenders.

What happens when the series of pretenders start... Culloden?

I hope you're not planning any moor like that.

BartholomewRoberts

Taz said:

Scott_xP said:

Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)

Via @economics 👇🏾

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite

Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1

This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.

I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.

Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.

And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.

They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.

Nigelb

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan recognized the Southern Kuril Islands as illegally occupied by Russia in its Diplomatic Bluebook for the first time in 19 years. The Southern Kurils are also named as an inherent part of Japan for the first time since 2011
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517402878926897152

Taz

RochdalePioneers said:

IshmaelZ said:

HYUFD said:

Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.

However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive

I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.

The "just bluster through it" defence collapsed utterly yesterday.

He's toast now. It is not Brown and 2010. The Tories will get rid of him. There will be more fines to come, the locals will be messy but not a disaster, but he will just continue to lose support.

I expect we will have a new PM by the Autumn.

rottenborough

Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.

Only a VONC will get him out.

nico679

Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.

Fieldwork 20/21 April

Macron 53
Le Pen 47

No change on their previous poll.

kamski

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.

Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.

I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.

Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.

Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century

The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.

And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?

Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.

IshmaelZ

StuartDickson said:

ydoethur said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.

Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.

I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.

Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.

Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century

The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.

Yeah hence Amundsen beating that wazzock Scott to the s pole was even more important than you'd think. Like Scotland gaining independence and then winning the next world cup. As is very likely to happen.

Unpopular

Nigelb said:

The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets...
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059

I recall reading that, much to the embarrassment of the other allies, during Nuremberg the Soviets attempted to pin the blame for the massacre on the Germans. Fairly shrewd tactic but the other Judges, being very conscious that tu quoque would be the Nazi's most likely defence, were not keen to draw attention to Allied war crimes. The whole situation seems to have been fairly awkward.

BartholomewRoberts

rottenborough said:

Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.

Only a VONC will get him out.

Never say never.

All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.

History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.

darkage

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

SouthamObserver said:

StuartDickson said:

The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.

Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.

Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?

What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.

I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.

I cannot comment on Sweden, but can on Finland, as I have friends and family there. Fear of Russia is wired very strongly in to the collective national psyche. I don't think that joining NATO is unaminous in any way, the application for membership is based on a sudden spike in support following Russias invasion of Ukraine, it jumped from around 30% to 60% in a very short space of time. The thing to watch is the position of the 'centre' party, part of the governing coalition; they are historically pro Russian and believed by some to be compromised by the Russian money. They have not opposed the application, but have disappeared from view, not turning up to the debates etc. It is believed that they will resurface if public support recedes and call for a referendum, which will inevitably be a close affair and the subject of attempted manipulation, probably from both sides.

Regarding the matter of a land invasion of Finland, this would be very hard going for Russia due primarily to the amount of trees and lack of roads, there are only a few, and they can all be blown up. The forests along the border were all mined, for many years, but recently they have been de-mined. There is a strong army, possibly the strongest in Europe, and reserves amount to hundreds of thousands (all men go through compulsory military training). From this point of view, they don't actually need NATO at all. But none of this can stop aerial bombardment and control of the skies, which is going to be a greater factor than in the 1940s, and for this, they would be potentially outnumbered by Russia. So under the current arrangement, they could be bombed to nothing by Russia, and there is no guarantee of any assistance, which is a big problem.

There is an understandable concern that Joining NATO means that finland will become entangled in other conflicts around the world. But the deeper reality is that Putin is too unpredictable, and failing to act now will put Finland in a difficult and compromised position in relation to Russia.