The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.
An insightful post.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England Finland = Wales Norway = Scotland Denmark = Ireland Iceland = Mann
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
I agree completely Bart. It is madness. You were very vocal about it at the time and were absolutely correct in your analysis.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets... The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938 https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”
So it is for targeting Russian artillery - which requires significantly longer range than tank busting. The Phoenix Ghost drone for Ukraine can
- take off vertically - fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target - operate at night using its infrared sensors and - is effective against medium armored targets - https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1517332339768332288
Committee chair & former minister Tobias Ellwood says that the war in Ukraine can no longer be used "as a fig leaf" to distract from the situation in No10. He adds "more and more MPs" believe it's time for the question of leadership in Downing Street to be looked at. https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1517405640557309953
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
I agree completely Bart. It is madness.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
I'd start worrying about the food industry itself, at this rate, with world food prices and shortages, and the farmers and fishermen already screwed over the Brexit promises of roast unicorn for dinner every Sunday. Wouldn't like to be a beef or pork farmer at the moment.
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
https://twitter.com/WWIIpix/status/1517379849962364928 This day in 1945, SS-Obergruppenführer Steiner refused to attack with Army Detachment upon realizing his units were inadequate and understrength to counterattack at Berlin. Hitler fell into a tearful rage against his generals, and declared that the war was lost.
The point about the wrecking amendment and change of plan is well made. Doesn't mean the Tory ranks are downright mutinous, but they can only be asked to put their dignity on the line every so often, not persistently.
They now do so continuously while they allow Johnson to remain leader.
I'll amend, they can only be asked to do so in such a direct manner every so often. Choosing not to act is easier for them than having to stand up in a debate and trudge through the division lobby.
I think we're beyond that. Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.
I'm not disagreeing with that at all. I'm saying it's an easier choice to make when not being forced into political theater by the leader.
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
I agree completely Bart. It is madness. You were very vocal about it at the time and were absolutely correct in your analysis.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
The rest of the party is non-cerebral. They are, quite literally, too thick.
I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
The former 2 the only postwar PMs to win 10 years in power and 3 consecutive general elections too and Johnson the only PM other than Blair since Thatcher to win a majority over 50
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
In most minds, one of the signs of a good leader is to ensure that there is at least one, preferably several, successors ready.
Boris is not a good leader.
(Though in some ways, leaving him in place to take the rap in 2024 might be best, in a "nature's way is sometimes harsh" sort of way. The events of 1990 cast a long shadow over the Conservatives, and annointing and deposing BoJo within 3 years is taking the Mickey.)
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.
Icelandic independence 1944 Finnish independence 1917 Norwegian independence 1905 Swedish independence 1523 Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?
There is only wan keir.
The wan keir stands opposite Starker at the despatch box, trying to mass debate with him...
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
My own MP, an ultra loyalist has told me he would have voted with Labour yesterday had the vote gone ahead.
I get the impression Johnson's accepted contrition in the HoC Chamber on Tuesday was quickly undone by his unrepentant, ebullient presentation to Conservative MPs a little later.
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.
Icelandic independence 1944 Finnish independence 1917 Norwegian independence 1905 Swedish independence 1523 Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.
Depends what you mean by 'ancient,' of course. Scotland has a reasonable claim to date from the 840s, England from about the 930s.
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.
An insightful post.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England Finland = Wales Norway = Scotland Denmark = Ireland Iceland = Mann
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?
Edit: whatever one thinks personally, there's no doubt about his attack on them for spoiling the antique virtue of the Roman.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53 Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?
Although that was made up, of course.
By contrast, hard to overstate the impact of sections of the media in the madness that has gripped the Tory party. Heck, some of them (Gove and Johnson) are even senior figures in the government.
The sad truth for the Tories - and, more importantly, for the country - is that the cupboard is bare. There is no shining knight waiting to replace Johnson, if he ever goes. There are some plodders, such as Hunt, that may do less damage than the current incumbent but have little to offer beyond that; and then there are those, such as Truss, who would be embarrassingly out of their depth. The Tories have nothing now except division, confrontation and culture war - and the country needs a whole lot more than that. It's going to be a very, very painful few years - and we may not emerge from them in one piece.
A “plodder” is often the right answer. Starker is a plodder. Of the PMs in recent memory they were all plodders except Thatcher, Blair and Johnson.
Epic typo...a sign he's getting to the naked truth?
There is only wan keir.
The wan keir stands opposite Starker at the despatch box, trying to mass debate with him...
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
Fraser Nelson. Dearie dearie dearie me.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
LIke Gibbon's treatment of the Christians and their impact on the Empire?
Although that was made up, of course.
By contrast, hard to overstate the impact of sections of the media in the madness that has gripped the Tory party. Heck, some of them (Gove and Johnson) are even senior figures in the government.
Well, a Gibbon on the Christians treatment would be even more appropriate in that case, even if it turns out to be true ...
The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets... The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938 https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”
It’s very different
No difference , they are still barstewards of the first order, just repeating what they have done many times before.
As others have said, two of the Tories have fairly marginal seats, so may not be in a mood to be too reckless about clearing the PM. But I suspect that in practice the issue will really come down to whether most Tory MPs have come to feel they'd be better off with an unknown successor at the whim of members, and that in turn hinges on the local elections and the Sue Gray report (I don't think more fines will do it by themselves).
Tories who fancy a different PM may therefore have an actual incentive to vote Labour in two weeks even if they have no sympathy for Labour whatsoever (yes, I have an ulterior motive!). It's a curious state of affairs.
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
The "just bluster through it" defence collapsed utterly yesterday.
I do believe in tipping points. I think standard bluster tends to work. I will be surprised if pleased if, to their shock, the PM and his inner circle find that the angry Tories really meant it. That they didn't think the time was right, but they are not, as he is, pretending to think it important until they can get past it. That they actually think it is important.
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.
An insightful post.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England Finland = Wales Norway = Scotland Denmark = Ireland Iceland = Mann
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.
An insightful post.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England Finland = Wales Norway = Scotland Denmark = Ireland Iceland = Mann
Again, my experience only is that Iceland sits a little apart. People there seem to look to Denmark, to the Faeroes and perhaps to Greenland. I don't think they feel an equally close affinity with Norway, Sweden and Finland. They are step-brothers rather than blood brothers.
The way I see it is that Sweden is the bigger Nordic brother that the rest of them admire, slightly mistrust and relentlessly and affectionately take the piss out of.
I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
Les Ramblas...don't you just long to be back in the EU? Those multi lingual conversations was one of the things I loved...
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
And the PM and Chancellor's response was to put up National Insurance and take money out of the working public's pocket.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
I agree completely Bart. It is madness.
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
I'd start worrying about the food industry itself, at this rate, with world food prices and shortages, and the farmers and fishermen already screwed over the Brexit promises of roast unicorn for dinner every Sunday. Wouldn't like to be a beef or pork farmer at the moment.
Yes, you are right and we saw when COVID first came nations started barring exports of products like Rice and Wheat that will probably happen again.
We will not be able to rely on Ukraine for wheat or sunflower oil due to the conflict.
The govt will not be able to keep blaming COVID or Ukraine or anything else for their failings.
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
If I remember rightly the last time Sweden and Russia went to war was when Russia annexed Finland in 1809. It maintained studious neutrality in both World Wars and refused to join NATO during the Cold War even though they entered into a number of unofficial or semi-official enterprises with it.
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
Point of information: Finland did not regain its independence in 1917. Remove the “re”.
Icelandic independence 1944 Finnish independence 1917 Norwegian independence 1905 Swedish independence 1523 Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
And yet other people say the kingdom of Norway was founded in 872?
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.
Indeed. England and Scotland are not ancient countries, though currently subsumed in another entity, for instance.
Depends what you mean by 'ancient,' of course. Scotland has a reasonable claim to date from the 840s, England from about the 930s.
Granted that's not ancient ancient. I wasnt using it in a professional way. But as relatively united and consistent polities go it's pretty ancient when you consider the rise of the nation state and explosion of countries in recent centuries.
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.
Fraser Nelson is not convinced johnson will be ousted. No obvious successor, is his reading.
My own MP, an ultra loyalist has told me he would have voted with Labour yesterday had the vote gone ahead.
I get the impression Johnson's accepted contrition in the HoC Chamber on Tuesday was quickly undone by his unrepentant, ebullient presentation to Conservative MPs a little later.
And his disappearance to India on the day of the debate
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
Even more so now that such a vast proportion of the population have now completely abandoned old-fashioned news outlets. For example, I can’t think of any friends or family under the age of 70 who insist on consuming the main tv news every night.
Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53 Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
If Le Pen wins on Sunday, can I be the first to wish you a Merry Christmas, as they will all have come at once for you.
You never actually negotiate anything in real life do you?
It is a very fair point Scott makes.
Johnson's go to campaign photo opportunity is to play on JCBs. Always a winner, but not a good look when a Muslim shanty town is being razed to the ground by Modi using JCBs.
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Johnson's survival depends on how bad the local elections and polls get. If Labour have a 10%+ lead in the polls and local elections NEV and the Tories lose over 500 councillors then he likely loses a VONC if he does not resign.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
I don't think that is true any longer. After Tuesday and after the backbench and junior minister revolt over yesterday's motion he is finished. No matter what.
He will face a VONC now no matter what but if the polls and local elections are not too disastrous he will likely narrowly still win it
Surely a narrow win would pretty much hole him below the water line anyway.
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
Never say never.
All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.
History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.
You were his biggest fan. In another guise I remember you saying he was the greatest Prime Minister since Thatcher and would possibly end up the best since the war. Surely a piece of birthday cake shouldn't deny the country the possibility of such talent and leadership?
The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets... The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938 https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to report
Latest Odoxa poll shows a much tighter race than any other pollster.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53 Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
All polls still have Le Pen over 40% including fully post debate ones.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
The weather could play a factor with turnout , it tends to effect certain demographics more than others .
Currently the weather on Sunday looks showery across France with also some longer periods of rain in places.
Some models have Paris mostly dry for much of the day which will of course help Macron . The piece of good news from the Odoxa for Macron is the breakdown in former Mélenchons support .
The previous Odoxa had Macron 31% Le Pen 29%
The latest poll has Macron 43% Le Pen 24%
The stable race shown is down to some better figures amongst other candidates transfers for Le Pen .
Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Teesside Tories were just as bad. It ended up with the Houchen / Vickers cabal running everything and anyone who wasn't them kicked out. OK so thanks to the Johnson / Corbyn pact they picked up a stack of seats, but they're going to lose most of them next time.
Jill Mortimer, whoever is the real one, evidently has not heard of blue ticks. The people of Hartlepool must hope their MP never tries running with scissors. More seriously, why is this not in chapter one of Parliament's IT Guide for Honourable Members?
In all fairness to Johnson he did suggest many, many years ago (I believe during the EURef campaign, although that may be wrong) that once the detested by some Leavers, Eastern Europeans had left post Brexit, any employment shortfalls could be made up by "our friends from the Indian subcontinent". Leavers knew this and were clearly comfortable with an influx of Indian workers, as presumably did RedWall Johnsonian voters. And good on 'em!
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
Costa Jenkin Carter Farris. Neutral cool no comment cool per @AlastairMeeks in February
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.
The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets... The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938 https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”
Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
A baronet is standing against the Tories in next month's council elections after claiming he has been expelled from the Scottish Conservative Party. Sir James Angus Rhoderick Neil McGrigor, known to everyone as "Jamie", is contesting the Oban South and Isles ward in Argyll and Bute as an independent, a council seat he had held for the Tories since 2017. Prior to that, he had been a Conservative MSP for the Highlands and Islands, serving in Holyrood from 1999 to 2016.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.
Those earning upto £34,000 pa I understand will see a fall in their tax from 1st July
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to report
Andy Carter, Alberto Costa, Laura Farris and Bernard Jenkin.
I don't believe any of them have commented. Jenkin should be a natural supporter, but wouldn't be surprised if he's someone Boris has lost over the last six months.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.
Indeed, anyone earning under £34,000 will see a cut in the NIC they pay. With those earning over £100,000 seeing the biggest rise.
Plus the state pension is rising below inflation too so pensioners are not immune from rising inflation
I’ve been out exploring more of Barcelona and looking for coffee under the rising sun. It’s a beautiful city, and far more pleasant to walk around when the streets are practically empty. It’s insanely busy here! I’ve managed to avoid a pickpocketing, possibly by looking very poor - I’ve been brandishing my ancient iPhone 6 (well using it to find where I am) which I think is a reliable, modern and international indicator for not having much dosh!
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
Les Ramblas...don't you just long to be back in the EU? Those multi lingual conversations was one of the things I loved...
But Roger, they’re still happening now! And nobody mentioned Brexit (unless that was what the old dude was ranting about)
And I could be having as many monolingual conversations as I like here, with the massive number of Americans I’ve heard. On almost every street I’ve walked down I’ve noticed their (usually loudly voiced) accents.
Tory MPs could not take the skin off a rice pudding.
The latest way they will try to rationalise it is by saying that he did not deliberatelymislead Parliament. He did it by accident or did not mean to or some such nonsense.
Apart from a few brave souls they are being pathetic, as pathetic as Labour MPs were with Corbyn. Have they learnt nothing from that? Apparently not.
The Russian army has shelled the Memorial to the Victims of Totalitarianism in Kharkiv damaging a part of the memorial tablets... The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938 https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
I don’t know the physical nature of the memorial but this story could be either “Russia deliberate targeted memorial” or “Memorial collateral damage in shelling of town”
It’s very different
No difference , they are still barstewards of the first order, just repeating what they have done many times before.
Absolutely not denying the culpability of Russia in this whole mess
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
Never say never.
All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.
History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.
You were his biggest fan. In another guise I remember you saying he was the greatest Prime Minister since Thatcher and would possibly end up the best since the war. Surely a piece of birthday cake shouldn't deny the country the possibility of such talent and leadership?
"Were" is the operative word. Though I'll correct you, I never said that he could possibly end up the best since the war, there was never a chance he could be better than Thacher.
All leaders have a best-before date and some may come sooner than later. Thatcher was herself the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill but that didn't mean that it was wrong to ultimately oust her.
The fact that Thatcher had to leave office doesn't diminish her achievements. She was still a great PM, but ultimately she had to go. The same goes for Boris, he's been a great PM but been is past-tense, it is well past the point for him to go now.
Tory MPs could not take the skin off a rice pudding.
The latest way they will try to rationalise it is by saying that he did not deliberatelymislead Parliament. He did it by accident or did not mean to or some such nonsense.
Apart from a few brave souls they are being pathetic, as pathetic as Labour MPs were with Corbyn. Have they learnt nothing from that? Apparently not.
Labour MPs did not remove Blair after he misled Parliament over WMD as the reason to take us to war in Iraq
The ‘No to Nato’ campaign is showing signs of life in Sweden. At least we’re now going to have a proper debate. Sweden’s ‘alliansfriheten’ seems to have much deeper ideological roots than Finland’s.
Presumably because the Swedes haven't faced anyone in open war for hundreds of years, while for Finns the Russian threat is one that is rooted in living memory.
Chicken n Egg conundrum. Is Sweden peaceful because we are free, or are we free because we are peaceful?
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
I was not seeking to knock the Swedes. Giving up a position of neutrality after generations observing it is a very, very big deal. I can understand entirely why it is such a tough call that will involve a lot of soul searching - despite the self-evident threats the country faces. My point was that Finnish history is very different, as is Finland's experience of Russia and, before and after that, the Soviet Union. Sweden's place in the Nordic family is also very interesting, IMO. In my experience, it is the one that the others define themselves against.
An insightful post.
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England Finland = Wales Norway = Scotland Denmark = Ireland Iceland = Mann
Rory Stewart really did shit the bed. Self destructing his career just as it was getting going, over a point of principle that was really irrelevant in the grand course.
The other what-if is Osborne. He might have stayed quietly on the backbenchers biding his time. A few sensible comments through the pandemic, don’t get drawn into the Brexit wars. He’d now be the slam dunk choice.
Gloomy data: UK retail sales dropped 1.4% in March - more than the 0.3% fall economists expected - as Brits cut back on discretionary spending and non-essential journeys to deal with the cost of living (which is only set to rise...)
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
This is what is going to doom the Tories, unless they get a handle on it, the cost of living crisis. A genuine cost of living crisis is going on right now.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Yes. People may even think it's the anorak stuff that is driving them, when were it not for cost of living they might not react to the same issues at all.
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
Most people have more sense than to interact with the news in detail.
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
And of course the Tories have made theur very special contribution to the money running out by bumping up NI. Unless one is a wealthyt pensioner Tory voter obvs.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Although Rishi has raised the NIC threshold so lower paid workers will see an apparent payrise in a couple of months time.
But too late for May's elections.
And a rounding error compared with all the other stuff going on.
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
Costa Jenkin Carter Farris. Neutral cool no comment cool per @AlastairMeeks in February
Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
How on earth does Jeremy Hunt get past the UKIP membership the Tories now have?
Morning all! "He's toast" seems to be the narrative, with even the remaining amoral Tories willing to back lies and criminality now doing so on the back foot. The utter collapse of the "lets front it out" strategy yesterday leaves only defensive plays and there are so few of those left.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
- “They now face a mullering in the locals.”
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
I honestly can't say. The vibe is that there is a lot of infighting, quite often between candidates in the same ward. Many candidates cling to David Duguid MP but I think he's seen as skating on thin ice with anyone connected with farming and fishing and energy.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Teesside Tories were just as bad. It ended up with the Houchen / Vickers cabal running everything and anyone who wasn't them kicked out. OK so thanks to the Johnson / Corbyn pact they picked up a stack of seats, but they're going to lose most of them next time.
London Tory candidates stand as ‘Local Conservatives’ in election in bid to deflect partygate
More than 400 London Tories will stand as “Local Conservatives” in the upcoming elections in what has been branded an attempt to distance themselves from the woes of the national party.
Dozens of prospective candidates in Birmingham will also be listed under the label on the ballot paper on May 5 for the first time.
Johnson will never resign, no matter what this standards committee comes up with.
Only a VONC will get him out.
If its clear that they will no confidence him and that he will lose, he will go. His last line of defence collapsed yesterday.
I'm not convinced.
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
It depends, who are the 4 Tories? If they're critics or sceptics of Boris then they might be sharpening their knives.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
I doubt he will survive long enough for the committee to report
Andy Carter, Alberto Costa, Laura Farris and Bernard Jenkin.
I don't believe any of them have commented. Jenkin should be a natural supporter, but wouldn't be surprised if he's someone Boris has lost over the last six months.
I read somewhere that there's nothing to stop the parties swapping out the members & that Labour might put some heavyweights on it. I can't find the link now.
I'm not sure quite what gives HYUFD the authority to proclaim a voting percentage which leads Johnson to survive. It seems to me arbitrary and lacking any factual basis. Which I guess is fine as long as it's recognised to be little more than declaring the winning lotto numbers ahead of the draw.
There are a number of significant reasons why Johnson may not now survive the year.
Comments
Yes, Sweden is sometimes seen as the benchmark, the lodestar. Not just because we are twice the size of our immediate neighbours, and our central location, but for a complex range of other reasons.
This is a grossly flawed analogy, but one could propose:
Nordic cf Atlantic countries
Sweden = England
Finland = Wales
Norway = Scotland
Denmark = Ireland
Iceland = Mann
It was dixiedean, I think, who first pointed out the effect this would have on the leisure and hospitality sector. Discretionary spend is going to tank. Especially when you have restaurants suffering price pressures on basics hiking prices.
Shame on the rest of the party for nodding it through
It’s very different
The Phoenix Ghost drone for Ukraine can
- take off vertically
- fly for six-plus hours searching for or tracking a target
- operate at night using its infrared sensors and
- is effective against medium armored targets
- https://twitter.com/TheBaseLeg/status/1517332339768332288
https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1517405640557309953
The Tories on that committee will slow things down some how or other and before we know it we into late summer and it'll be "too near a GE to have a leadership election" time.
https://twitter.com/WWIIpix/status/1517379849962364928
This day in 1945, SS-Obergruppenführer Steiner refused to attack with Army Detachment upon realizing his units were inadequate and understrength to counterattack at Berlin. Hitler fell into a tearful rage against his generals, and declared that the war was lost.
At the last coffee place I managed to join in a conversation between the two Catalan ladies working there and, I think, a Scandinavian chap drinking an espresso at the bar (he was speaking Spanish with an accent). They seemed to be discussing the similarities between Catalan and French - one lady was saying café con leche and café au lait, then gracias and merci, both of which French terms I’ve heard in Catalan. I piped up with “Si us plau and s’il vous plait”. Both ladies immediately pointed at me nodding and spoke very quickly to me in Catalan.
I had to then reveal my Eng-norance, but managed to explain in my shaky French that I’d noticed many similarities between French and Catalan. I added for my final flourish that I believe French had taken the words from Catalan (a ‘fact’ given to me by my translator friend I spent the afternoon drinking with at the bus station the other day). This won a “Brava!” From a very old Catalan gent sitting in the café, who then seemed to go into an old man rant at nobody in particular.
I brought my coffee out here to just watch people go by for a bit..
Boris Johnson yesterday said he wants to secure a free trade deal with India by the Autumn
Narendra Modi only says he wants to 'make all efforts to conclude the FTA by the end of the year'
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1517406842313654272
Boris is not a good leader.
(Though in some ways, leaving him in place to take the rap in 2024 might be best, in a "nature's way is sometimes harsh" sort of way. The events of 1990 cast a long shadow over the Conservatives, and annointing and deposing BoJo within 3 years is taking the Mickey.)
I get the impression Johnson's accepted contrition in the HoC Chamber on Tuesday was quickly undone by his unrepentant, ebullient presentation to Conservative MPs a little later.
When they write the obituary of the once mighty Conservative Party, Nelson and his repulsive ilk will get more than a footnote in the Decline & Fall section.
Lundy?
Edit: whatever one thinks personally, there's no doubt about his attack on them for spoiling the antique virtue of the Roman.
Indian PM Modi says he wants to 'further strengthen' the 'living bridge' between the UK and India.
Appears to be a call for London to let more Indians migrate to the UK.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1517407890482819072
As the circumstance changes, the same events can be seen differently.
In some ways it suits her to have Macron in front, Brexit and Trump were won from being behind in the polls but still in range. If she was ahead or tied with Macron most Melenchon voters for instance would make the effort to hold their nose and vote for Macron, as it is many will stay home if he looks safe.
The odds favour a solid Macron win but it will still be closer than 2017 and a shock Le Pen narrow win is not impossible on a low turnout
By contrast, hard to overstate the impact of sections of the media in the madness that has gripped the Tory party. Heck, some of them (Gove and Johnson) are even senior figures in the government.
Post of the week. Heck, the month.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/21/what-is-the-commons-privileges-committee-and-how-powerful-is-it
As others have said, two of the Tories have fairly marginal seats, so may not be in a mood to be too reckless about clearing the PM. But I suspect that in practice the issue will really come down to whether most Tory MPs have come to feel they'd be better off with an unknown successor at the whim of members, and that in turn hinges on the local elections and the Sue Gray report (I don't think more fines will do it by themselves).
Tories who fancy a different PM may therefore have an actual incentive to vote Labour in two weeks even if they have no sympathy for Labour whatsoever (yes, I have an ulterior motive!). It's a curious state of affairs.
The way I see it is that Sweden is the bigger Nordic brother that the rest of them admire, slightly mistrust and relentlessly and affectionately take the piss out of.
https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1517409970752753664
https://www.ft.com/content/f5186935-aec3-4e16-b5ba-a29d4a1b6af7
On the other hand if there is a vonc in the HOC it will fail
We will not be able to rely on Ukraine for wheat or sunflower oil due to the conflict.
The govt will not be able to keep blaming COVID or Ukraine or anything else for their failings.
Once again, he's created gentle time pressure on himself which could lead to him swallowing a worse deal as a result.
He couldn't possibly carry on ?
But If the money runs out before the month does, everyone notices. Which is why the "not our fault" stuff doesn't work- most people don't get to hear it.
It will be interesting to see reactions to payday next week.
Johnson's go to campaign photo opportunity is to play on JCBs. Always a winner, but not a good look when a Muslim shanty town is being razed to the ground by Modi using JCBs.
Don't shoot Scott, he's just the messenger.
And I assume to be on such a Committee they presumably can't be a Minister, so aren't on the "Payroll Vote" so won't be loyalists to the PM?
LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @techneUK, 20 - 21 Apr
https://sotn.newstatesman.com/2022/03/what-do-the-latest-polls-say-britain-elects/
Currently the weather on Sunday looks showery across France with also some longer periods of rain in places.
Some models have Paris mostly dry for much of the day which will of course help Macron . The piece of good news from the Odoxa for Macron is the breakdown in former Mélenchons support .
The previous Odoxa had Macron 31% Le Pen 29%
The latest poll has Macron 43% Le Pen 24%
The stable race shown is down to some better figures amongst other candidates transfers for Le Pen .
I would have expected a wider gap
https://alastair-meeks.medium.com/every-conservative-mps-position-on-boris-johnson-and-the-parties-in-number-10-bc4f5f77032f
It is out of town, in a forest - just off a road. Unless there are Ukrainian troops in the forest, dug in, why would you be shelling this area?
A baronet is standing against the Tories in next month's council elections after claiming he has been expelled from the Scottish Conservative Party. Sir James Angus Rhoderick Neil McGrigor, known to everyone as "Jamie", is contesting the Oban South and Isles ward in Argyll and Bute as an independent, a council seat he had held for the Tories since 2017. Prior to that, he had been a Conservative MSP for the Highlands and Islands, serving in Holyrood from 1999 to 2016.
I don't believe any of them have commented. Jenkin should be a natural supporter, but wouldn't be surprised if he's someone Boris has lost over the last six months.
Plus the state pension is rising below inflation too so pensioners are not immune from rising inflation
And I could be having as many monolingual conversations as I like here, with the massive number of Americans I’ve heard. On almost every street I’ve walked down I’ve noticed their (usually loudly voiced) accents.
The latest way they will try to rationalise it is by saying that he did not deliberately mislead Parliament. He did it by accident or did not mean to or some such nonsense.
Apart from a few brave souls they are being pathetic, as pathetic as Labour MPs were with Corbyn. Have they learnt nothing from that? Apparently not.
All leaders have a best-before date and some may come sooner than later. Thatcher was herself the greatest Prime Minister since Churchill but that didn't mean that it was wrong to ultimately oust her.
The fact that Thatcher had to leave office doesn't diminish her achievements. She was still a great PM, but ultimately she had to go. The same goes for Boris, he's been a great PM but been is past-tense, it is well past the point for him to go now.
Labour 39
Tory 33
LibDem 9
Green 8
The other what-if is Osborne. He might have stayed quietly on the backbenchers biding his time. A few sensible comments through the pandemic, don’t get drawn into the Brexit wars. He’d now be the slam dunk choice.
And a rounding error compared with all the other stuff going on.
More than 400 London Tories will stand as “Local Conservatives” in the upcoming elections in what has been branded an attempt to distance themselves from the woes of the national party.
Dozens of prospective candidates in Birmingham will also be listed under the label on the ballot paper on May 5 for the first time.
Evening Standard
I'm not sure quite what gives HYUFD the authority to proclaim a voting percentage which leads Johnson to survive. It seems to me arbitrary and lacking any factual basis. Which I guess is fine as long as it's recognised to be little more than declaring the winning lotto numbers ahead of the draw.
There are a number of significant reasons why Johnson may not now survive the year.