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2022 once again the betting favorite for BoJo’s exit – politicalbetting.com
2022 once again the betting favorite for BoJo’s exit – politicalbetting.com
What we saw with the approach to yesterday’s Commons move to have an inquiry into whether BJ has been honest with the House was that the initial Tory plan went out of the window.
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On the basis he is sorry it has caused him such grief, ir because they are pretty forgiving souls and accept his contrition?
As for the exit, it has been heartening that at least a handful were genuine that they were waiting to see if there were fines before making up their minds rather than just delaying for it's own sake, so the heat has definitely risen. He's a bit rattled, as if he cannot quite believe this is still causing grief. But it takes so much to actually turn remove him and there's no real obvious moments he could go quietly. So a drawn out process looks likely.
The belief/knowledge that Johnson is an inveterate liar is now a matter of political consensus.
No serious party can allow such a politician to lead them for much longer. As a few Conservative MPs have, to their credit, publicly acknowledged.
How senior Tories’ frantic efforts failed to block Boris Johnson inquiry
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/apr/21/how-senior-tories-frantic-efforts-failed-to-block-boris-johnson-inquiry
Extraordinary to have a majority of 80, and be effectively ‘in office, but not in power’.
” It’s open mic night at the Dog and Duck and we’re looking for anyone with a shred of skill at party management,” an ex-cabinet minister smirked as they left the chamber.…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61183056
10 points off the pace in England.
30 point off the pace in Scotland.
40 points off the pace in Wales.
AWOL in Ireland.
Conservative MPs are out of their tiny minds.
Yet again, I'll believe this when I see it. Recent history is not one of decisive action by Conservative MPs.
F1: a stupidly formatted weekend, so the 'pre-qualifying' ramble will be pre-sprint race and up tomorrow. Small chance I'll offer a qualifying tip but unlikely (think it's at 4pm).
Inaction is now a deliberate choice, with consequences.
On topic I agree with Mr S. AIUI there are two groups of Con MP's; those who have a traditionalist view and others of a more radical bent, who frequently represent Red Wall constituencies.
They now face a mullering in the locals. Followed swiftly by the avalanche of PCNs (and worse?) from the Met, followed swiftly by the unredacted Grey report, followed swiftly by the Privilege Committee sitting to look through an absolute mountain of damning evidence.
He only got to carry on by blustering it out with the party backing him. That ended yesterday.
So, who replaces him. Sunak has been torpedoed below the water line and supposedly almost quit. Truss is an Instagram Thatcher tribute with nothing to offer. Gove is off his tits. Raab loses his seat at the election and doesn't show any signs of brain activity. Tugenwho?
I know that high thinking moral giants like HY have insisted the party would only vote for a Brexiteer, but there aren't any. And the party is going to left so reeling by Borisgate over the next few months that electing another high risk wazzock won't look sensible.
Step forward Jeremy Hunt. Your time has come.
The struggling teams (cough, Mercedes...) thus have no chance to test at all.
Unless they are determined to go into the next election with Boris, which now seems implausible, then delay just costs them more pain.
The may elections give them a trigger. They need to pull it.
If that were demonstrably true, he'd get away with it.
Trouble is, that as a result of experience with our current PM, the public, or at least the press is going to demand higher standards. (Again?)
Your question gets to the heart of it
It is my understanding that the only reason Boris is still in office is because his mps cannot agree on his successor, let alone agree a single candidate
I do know many conservative mps are very conflicted
No matter Mike is correct it is not if but when and I believe he is unlikely to be in office at the end of May following more FPNs, photographs and a poor local election result
I would just say the chaos he is causing for his mps is shocking and even worse he doesn't seem to care as he clings onto office
Hunt is the only one who has shown a calm pair of hands and leadership skills who hasn't had to debase himself defending the clown show.
I am curious about Mark Harper who broke ranks early. As an ex whip does he have any connections?
The Memorial commemorates 3806 Polish officers and 500 Polish civilians murdered by Soviet secret police in Kharkiv as part of the Katyn massacre in 1940 as well as 2746 Kharkiv residents murdered in 1937-1938
https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517376430694445059
Meanwhile Finland has faced repeated threats from Russia ever since it regained its independence in 1917 and shares a long, problematic land border with a neighbour who appears to be suffering from enough collective paranoia to make the State of Israel blink.
I am not surprised that NATO membership is therefore more controversial in Sweden than in Finland. Whether that is ultimately sustainable without radical changes in Russia itself is a different question.
But if he were up against Truss...
So are the Conservatives looking to reverse bits of Johnsonism (if so, which bits?), or is the aim to have roughly the same direction with a different face?
How’s it looking on the ground in your patch? I keep reading how well the SCons are doing (outwith Edinburgh), but reading between the lines of Robert Smithson’s post last night about one naughty PBer using a blacklisted ip address and other Mod-posts, it seems the distributor of this information may not be… ahem… entirely reliable.
That said, giddy up a negative test soonest.
If anyone cares to go through thousands of posts (I can't) they will see I was saying months back "don't rule out Hunt...." He still has a body of support from 2019 (although weakened by those who supported him moving out in the subsequent election).
I think the election for Boris' successor, however quickly that comes, will give a very good opportunity for those who have never yet held one of the great offices of state.
The problem is that they are running against the SNP - specifically that SNP priorities are not your priorities. With regards to funding local projects. Its just that they didn't fund the big CCS project up here (and the MP even praised the PM for awarding the money to England) and Brexit has harmed agriculture so I don't get their point.
Worth remembering that this is, I believe, current Tory voters, a somewhat reduced base. Presumably the split for Tory 2019 voters would be even worse for Johnson. We can get an inkling of that from the 50-34 split among EU Referendum Leave voters.
You would guess that the opinion of Tory 2019 voters who do not currently tell pollsters they intend to vote Tory is not that positive towards Johnson. Those are the voters the Tories will want to recover for the next GE.
What on earth makes you think Swedes aren’t very well aware of Russian threats, both historic and contemporary? Swedish media has reported and commented such threats since time immemorial. Swedes are not unaffected by the experiences of our Nordic brothers in Finland, Norway, Iceland and Denmark, nor the rest of humanity.
A beating in the locals. Then a stack of FPNs. Then the Grey report. Then the Privileges enquiry. They don't need to skulk around plotting in the dark. The defences have collapsed, its all coming out, and the momentum against him will be unstoppable.
MPs were unwilling to block the enquiry. They will be incapable of brushing aside the mountain of evidence thrown at him day after day week after week. He is toast.
Meanwhile a Tory leader can be removed by a vote of confidence which you can call for anonymously.
That doesn't mean Johnson is going anywhere, of course, just that the two parallels are inexact.
The real issue for the Tories is he should have been sacked immediately after Oswestry. They could have ridden this whole storm out if they'd done that. In fact, it might never have become a storm. They're showing in the clearest possible way that they have neither political sense nor personal integrity and it's going to be difficult for them to live that down whoever and whenever they elect a new leader.
Jamie mcgrigor fiasco.
If he wins they'll bring him back in instantly. Lots of so-called Independents who were Tories and will be again, and vv. We had a by election at Fort William and ... which hinged on that issue recently.
We'll have a by-election in Uxbridge, and Labour really ought to make two by-election gains in just a few months.
Icelandic independence 1944
Finnish independence 1917
Norwegian independence 1905
Swedish independence 1523
Danish unification, first half of the 10th century
The Nordic states are mostly much younger than you’d initially suspect.
However if the Labour lead is only around 5% or so and the local elections are bad but not disastrous then he will likely still survive
Via @economics 👇🏾
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-22/u-k-retail-sales-fall-more-than-forecast-as-living-costs-bite
Meanwhile, @GfK says consumer confidence sank for a 5th straight month in April, with Brits more pessimistic about the outlook for their personal finances and the economy than during the financial crisis - it's the level synonymous with recession:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-04-21/u-k-consumer-confidence-sinks-to-lowest-since-2008-recession https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1517393837353750529/photo/1
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
If Boris goes either Wallace or Javid will be his likely replacement
Enjoy this Jill Mortimer MP vs Jill Mortimer MP Twitter spat. https://twitter.com/JillMortimer4HP/status/1517226120504131590
My FT mag col.
https://www.ft.com/content/33074af5-c41c-4c53-b9d0-e56e7263b31f https://twitter.com/robertshrimsley/status/1517400158413234181/photo/1
https://www.thenational.scot/news/20084760.extreme-risk-wildfires-declared-weekend-fire-rescue-service/
Given that's the creed current in vogue in Moscow.....
Your lot are standing on a platform of supporting Lies, Criminality, Malfeasance and Impropriety. An electoral beating is at hand.
And then? The Met issue another stack of FPNs. As Gary Gibbon put it, Number 10 will be the most ticketed location in the whole country. With multiple FPNs stacked on the PM personally.
And then? The unredacted Sue Grey report. And the redacted summary was so bad as to have some Tory MPs wondering how they get re-elected if this carries on.
And then? The Commons Privileges Committee conducts its first ever investigation into a sitting Prime Minister. With a veritable mountain of evidence all over the entire press.
You personally are ok with lies. With criminality. With malfeasance in public office. With impropriety. You have made that very clear those are the values, the morals you support. Thats up to you. But the electorate are harsh when faced with such things. Remember how your party got wiped out completely in Scotland because of the same misbehaviour in the 90s? Remember how Labour got smashed in the midlands and north after lying about failed delivery?
You may well be happy with lies and crookedness. But the polls you cling to will show the people of this country are not happy with it. And when you try to claim you have always been against such things we will have to drag you and David Duguid and Jacob Young and the other amoral lickspittles back to what you all said and say no.
He is toast. Anyone with honour would have gone long ago. Anyone with morals would have called him to go long ago.
I am not surprised consumer confidence is falling and if gas prices don't fall then the price cap when it is renewed will either go up or stay the same.
Alot of the stuff that excited the political anoraks failed to resonate with the general public. The proverbial pound in the pocket is going to be one that really hits home.
Only a few months ago Rishi was an apparent shoo in. If that had happened the government would now be in Non Dom/Green Card/billionairegate crisis. No-one in government is safe.
Ignore everyone currently in government; none of them have a realistic prospect of surviving the scrutiny. The only options, apart from carrying on with Boris (quite possible) is to look outside government/ministers. Hunt of course is both outside and experienced.
They deserve to go just for that insanity, let alone everything else.
https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517402878926897152
I expect we will have a new PM by the Autumn.
Only a VONC will get him out.
Fieldwork 20/21 April
Macron 53
Le Pen 47
No change on their previous poll.
Most countries haven't existed in their current form for very long.
All leaders eventually depart office, there's no exceptions to that (except possibly Labour's John Smith) and almost all of them via resignation rather than waiting for a VONC to push them out.
History suggests that when Boris eventually departs, it will be via resigning, one way or another.
Regarding the matter of a land invasion of Finland, this would be very hard going for Russia due primarily to the amount of trees and lack of roads, there are only a few, and they can all be blown up. The forests along the border were all mined, for many years, but recently they have been de-mined. There is a strong army, possibly the strongest in Europe, and reserves amount to hundreds of thousands (all men go through compulsory military training). From this point of view, they don't actually need NATO at all. But none of this can stop aerial bombardment and control of the skies, which is going to be a greater factor than in the 1940s, and for this, they would be potentially outnumbered by Russia. So under the current arrangement, they could be bombed to nothing by Russia, and there is no guarantee of any assistance, which is a big problem.
There is an understandable concern that Joining NATO means that finland will become entangled in other conflicts around the world. But the deeper reality is that Putin is too unpredictable, and failing to act now will put Finland in a difficult and compromised position in relation to Russia.