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The Ukraine war as seen from Estonia – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,625
edited May 2022 in General
imageThe Ukraine war as seen from Estonia – politicalbetting.com

(This was posted on the previous thread from a longstanding PBer)

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  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Evening all!

    I think this is a very useful perspective; it goes to the question "what next"?

    And if Russia attempts to lower the intensity of the war, does Ukraine follow? Or do their allies continue to supply them with weapons to maintain their aggressive defence?
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,983
    edited April 2022
    First? No... but the previous post took a long time to show up.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Cicero, that's Tallinn 'em!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,362
    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Malmesbury said:

    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?

    What if a combination of sabotage, failures, and combat losses force them into another change of pace/direction?
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    Christ. JFK is a toilet

    Yep not great. Terminal 7 I take it?
    Terminal 8. It’s like an aspiring provincial airport in South Africa
    Ah yes. Same crap.

    Terrible airport and terrible to get to. In keeping with terrible American airlines.

    As for South Africa, I've flown from most of them. King Shaka International at Durban is probably my pick: not a bad airport at all. You can fly there direct from the UAE with Emirates which adds an arguably better option than Jo'burg.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Malmesbury said:

    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?

    There is some speculation that, in the absence of victory by May 9th, the date will instead serve as the time when war is formally declared and a full mobilisation ordered. This has the potential to provide Russia with sufficient manpower to sustain the war for some considerable time.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    edited April 2022
    Leon, if you haven't yet done so get yourself onto a Q-Suite Business with Qatar Airways.

    Nothing, not even Singapore Airlines, will ever be quite the same for you again. Dodgy country, utterly outstanding airline.

    (And both amusing and irritating that despite being in OneWorld, Qatar won't let riff raff business passengers from other airlines use their top Business lounges. Only their own true business pax are allowed in.)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,362
    mwadams said:

    Malmesbury said:

    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?

    What if a combination of sabotage, failures, and combat losses force them into another change of pace/direction?
    Escalate - call in more reserves in T55s with warn out tracks, and obsolete BMP carriers to burn to death in.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited April 2022
    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 56,362
    LostPassword said:

    Malmesbury said:

    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?

    There is some speculation that, in the absence of victory by May 9th, the date will instead serve as the time when war is formally declared and a full mobilisation ordered. This has the potential to provide Russia with sufficient manpower to sustain the war for some considerable time.
    Large number of untrained conscripts to Die! Gloriously! For! The! Motherland!....

    Yeah - Full Tonto Squared.

    Funny how in a few weeks, that comment has gone from "Defence Sec. loses plot, needs to be fired" to "Called it".

  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    Good to hear some perspectives from elsewhere.

    Would be interesting to see how the smaller nations of the EU view the performance of France and Germany in 'defending' Europe. Both seem to have been fairly useless so far.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    Surely they must see now that Johnson has served his purpose from their narrow perspective: Brexit got done; Corbyn was kept out of power; decent majority achieved.

    We are constantly told that the relationship between Johnson and Tory party is entirely transactional. Time to realise the terms of trade have changed?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    mwadams said:

    Evening all!

    I think this is a very useful perspective; it goes to the question "what next"?

    And if Russia attempts to lower the intensity of the war, does Ukraine follow? Or do their allies continue to supply them with weapons to maintain their aggressive defence?

    Good questions. I suspect one key factor will be if Russia is holding any land gained this year. The additional perspective is the state of the Russian economy and also whether any attempt is made to remove Putin.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Cicero, that's Tallinn 'em!

    It is not appropriate for us to Reval in puns.
    The Narva this guy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    StuartDickson said:

    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.

    Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    Excellent stuff from our man/woman on the ground @Cicero
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    rottenborough said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.

    Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
    Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,835
    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Cicero, that's Tallinn 'em!

    It is not appropriate for us to Reval in puns.
    The Narva this guy.
    Lett it go.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    Anything from Macron over 55% and I win. If he goes over 60% I win big.

    There was some seriously good value. At least, I think so :smiley:
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    Malmesbury said:

    LostPassword said:

    Malmesbury said:

    I'm not sure that the Russians will reduce the intensity of the conflict. I think that is up to Putin - short of him getting kicked out.

    In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.

    If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?

    There is some speculation that, in the absence of victory by May 9th, the date will instead serve as the time when war is formally declared and a full mobilisation ordered. This has the potential to provide Russia with sufficient manpower to sustain the war for some considerable time.
    Large number of untrained conscripts to Die! Gloriously! For! The! Motherland!....

    Yeah - Full Tonto Squared.

    Funny how in a few weeks, that comment has gone from "Defence Sec. loses plot, needs to be fired" to "Called it".
    Well, Russia does have a semblance of a reserve force, formed of people who have previous military experience, and presumably a larger number of people who have been conscripts in previous years and could be conscripted again. So there is quite a lot of manpower potential with some degree of previous military experience.

    Probably enough to work through all of their usable equipment stockpiles. No idea what sort of dent it would make in their stocks of artillery shells - but a lot of dying to be done, on both sides, if the will is there.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    Nah! Lab Maj 4/1 is a clear Lay.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    ydoethur said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Cicero, that's Tallinn 'em!

    It is not appropriate for us to Reval in puns.
    The Narva this guy.
    Lett it go.
    But I'm enjoying being Siili.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    BBC News earlier trying to talk it up as a close contest.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    StuartDickson said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
    They worried too much about who would win the contest to replace Johnson. One problem at a time.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
    They worried too much about who would win the contest to replace Johnson. One problem at a time.
    I can see that Rees-Mogg would be a fire/frying pan scenario, but leaving aside the obvious morons, most of the top 20 names would be infinitely better than the winner of England’s Biggest Fattest Liar Contest.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    BETTING POST

    Although Macron's odds have shortened phenomenally, there might still be some value. More shortly.

    55-59.99% is now the favourite at 4/6. That's in from the 7/4 I got at the start of this week.
    60-64.99% has come in from 14/1 to 7/2. Blimey!!!

    But, whereas 65%+ was 40/1 that has now drifted out to 50/1. Do I think this is likely? Not really. But 50/1 when today he polled 57.5%? Might be worth a flutter. It's really not likely but it's not 50/1 unlikely.

    I win above 55% and I think he is going to be close to 60% which was my forecast all through.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,726
    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
    They worried too much about who would win the contest to replace Johnson. One problem at a time.
    I can see that Rees-Mogg would be a fire/frying pan scenario, but leaving aside the obvious morons, most of the top 20 names would be infinitely better than the winner of England’s Biggest Fattest Liar Contest.
    Though I guess if Sunak had become leader in January only to be fined in April, it would have been somewhat unfortunate for the Tories, so you can envisage scenarios that are worse than the status quo.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,878
    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    LostPassword said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
    They worried too much about who would win the contest to replace Johnson. One problem at a time.
    I can see that Rees-Mogg would be a fire/frying pan scenario, but leaving aside the obvious morons, most of the top 20 names would be infinitely better than the winner of England’s Biggest Fattest Liar Contest.
    Though I guess if Sunak had become leader in January only to be fined in April, it would have been somewhat unfortunate for the Tories, so you can envisage scenarios that are worse than the status quo.
    Did he fib to Pmt? But the green cards would have been red cards, so to speak.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,148
    StuartDickson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    Nah! Lab Maj 4/1 is a clear Lay.
    Agree. Unless you can compile a list of 126-130 seats that Labour will win and don't currently hold, + be sure they will keep all their current seats, + be sure that Labour's left won't succeed in losing the election again, + be sure that neither can Boris reconstruct himself nor the Tories find out the Jeremy Hunt/Tom Tugendhat can win the odds for Labour getting 326 seats are nearer 20/1.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    Heathener said:

    BETTING POST

    Although Macron's odds have shortened phenomenally, there might still be some value. More shortly.

    55-59.99% is now the favourite at 4/6. That's in from the 7/4 I got at the start of this week.
    60-64.99% has come in from 14/1 to 7/2. Blimey!!!

    But, whereas 65%+ was 40/1 that has now drifted out to 50/1. Do I think this is likely? Not really. But 50/1 when today he polled 57.5%? Might be worth a flutter. It's really not likely but it's not 50/1 unlikely.

    I win above 55% and I think he is going to be close to 60% which was my forecast all through.

    I do like 'betting posts'. I can't recall quite who it was that used to make them years ago - in the early days for me on PB.

    I'm not sure about the detail (well I am sure and being polite), but the intent is first class.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,837
    SandyRentool said:

    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    BBC News earlier trying to talk it up as a close contest.
    I’d say it’s a two person race...
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Baker.
    I always hear people saying he's into bread.
    He rolls with the punches.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    rottenborough said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.

    Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
    He thinks it would just be the Ennd.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,148
    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.

  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 19,837
    From previous thread and unanswered - what is the Gary Cooper fallacy?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    SandyRentool said:

    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    BBC News earlier trying to talk it up as a close contest.
    Betting markets have been known to be wrong. :smiley:
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    Given that we are now (finally) into the endgame, I think it’s become considerably less likely than it was when it looked as though Johnson might make it to 2024.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    rottenborough said:

    SandyRentool said:

    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    BBC News earlier trying to talk it up as a close contest.
    Betting markets have been known to be wrong. :smiley:
    Almost by definition partly wrong.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,335
    Christ the Gary Gibbon interview on C4 News is painful.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 4,769
    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Baker.
    I always hear people saying he's into bread.
    He rolls with the punches.
    A bit of a bloomer.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    I've not been paying attention today, what's happened to Le Pen? Was the debate another disaster for her?
  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    algarkirk said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.

    Not Hunt. The party won't vote for him unless JRM is the alternative. Whoever gets to the final two, it will be who is the better TV performer.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    StuartDickson said:

    rottenborough said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.

    Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
    Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
    And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.

    And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Benpointer said:

    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    I've not been paying attention today, what's happened to Le Pen? Was the debate another disaster for her?
    Not as much as 2017 but she was still skewered by Macron about being financed by Russian banks. It was a terrible moment for her.

    Macron was his usual arrogant self but I don't think that will dissuade people from voting for him in a two horse race.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,275
    I have just found out that "locked" is an Irish expression for the results of a @Leon level evening of booze.

    Am I way behind the curve?

  • ExiledInScotlandExiledInScotland Posts: 1,540
    StuartDickson said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    R4 PM was a nightmare for the Conservative Party today. The embarrassment of Conservative MPs is palpable: they are hating every minute of this. Governing should be fun, but it is clearly torture for them. Breaking point must be close.

    They deserve it. They could and should have dealt with this in the winter.
    What were they thinking? Just hoping that “something will turn up”? It rarely does. Politicians shape their own destinies.
    They were thinking that Covid would be over and there would be a period of economic recovery when the government could reset. Then Putin did his thing and one of the World's largest oil and gas exporters attacked one of the World's largest food exporters. No government would be having a fun time at the moment.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    Very much so. However covid and Brexit have clearly been important in this lost opportunity.

    What's also become clear is the quite substantial number of ghasts that the Tory parliamentary party have in their ranks.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,776
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Omnium said:

    Farooq said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Baker.
    I always hear people saying he's into bread.
    He rolls with the punches.
    A bit of a bloomer.
    Especially when he gets a cob on.

    (That'll flush out the folks from Nottingham.)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Almost like there is permanent value in laying the favourite in the next leader market.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,708
    ThomasNashe said:

    Christ the Gary Gibbon interview on C4 News is painful.

    Yep. "Let them have their enquiry if they want". "But you don't want. You tried to block it"

    And then the clip of Chris Bryant. "He's toast [long pause] - he knows he's toast"

    This does feel now like the narrative. Bluster all you like, you're toast. And when he goes in the bin, think what happens to the amoral lickspittles who have defended him.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    RochdalePioneers said:

    ThomasNashe said:

    Christ the Gary Gibbon interview on C4 News is painful.

    Yep. "Let them have their enquiry if they want". "But you don't want. You tried to block it"

    And then the clip of Chris Bryant. "He's toast [long pause] - he knows he's toast"

    This does feel now like the narrative. Bluster all you like, you're toast. And when he goes in the bin, think what happens to the amoral lickspittles who have defended him.
    Something seems to have changed today. On here as much as in the media.

    I'm still not sure he won't cling on until 2024 but something shifted today.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    So far - about an hour - America is also stupidly expensive. I just had two glasses of OK Chilean red wine. £35 including tip

    Wtf.

    And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal

    The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed

    America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,522
    ydoethur said:

    Applicant said:

    ydoethur said:

    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Cicero, that's Tallinn 'em!

    It is not appropriate for us to Reval in puns.
    The Narva this guy.
    Lett it go.
    A Frozen conflict?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    I don't think you understand the term underpriced.

    It means the opposite of what you think it means.

    I think 🤔
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    Leon said:

    So far - about an hour - America is also stupidly expensive. I just had two glasses of OK Chilean red wine. £35 including tip

    Wtf.

    And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal

    The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed

    America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word

    You shouldn't have left a £25 tip.

    Surely it's only a fiver a glass?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    edited April 2022
    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    America is shit
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,998
    I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.

    I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,085
    Leon said:

    America is shit

    It was in a terrible terrible mess last time I was there.

    And yet, some of the loveliest people around.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,239
    Northern_Al said:

    I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.

    I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.

    If they had any integrity they'd prefer a truthful loser than a liar.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 6,000
    Leon said:

    America is shit

    What’s the deal with the six fingered figures in Tas Tepeler? Is there a theory? Informed or fantastical?
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    Leon said:

    So far - about an hour - America is also stupidly expensive. I just had two glasses of OK Chilean red wine. £35 including tip

    Wtf.

    And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal

    The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed

    America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word

    Put a hock in it old boy.

    Cicero: what's the explanation for your superb English?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,998
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    SandyRentool said:

    Leon said:

    So far - about an hour - America is also stupidly expensive. I just had two glasses of OK Chilean red wine. £35 including tip

    Wtf.

    And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal

    The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed

    America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word

    You shouldn't have left a £25 tip.

    Surely it's only a fiver a glass?
    £18 for a large-ish glass of supremely average wine. I do not joke
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Northern_Al said:

    I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.

    I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.

    Yes I agree
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Omnium, are you still on look out for Korean War books? Some I can recommend, in no particular order:

    > Battle for Korea: The Associated Press History of the Korean Conflict ed. by Robert J Dvorchak
    > Korean War: An Oral History - Pusan to Chosen by Donald Knox [also at least one other volume]
    > The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War by David Halberstam
    > Odd Man Out: Truman, Stalin, Mao, and the Origins of the Korean War by Richard C. Thornton
    > Truman and MacArthur: Policy, Politics and the Hunger for Honor and Renown by Michael D. Pearlman
    > Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the US in Korea 1950-51 by Russell Spurr
    > Chosin: Heroic Ordeal of the Korean War by Eric Hammel
    > Give Me Tomorrow: The Korean War's Greatest Untold Story - The Epic Stand of the Marines of Charlie Company by Patrick K O'Donnell
    > Korean War Almanac ed by Harry G Summers
    > Encyclopedia of the Korean War: A Political, Social and Military History ed. by Spencer C Tucker
    Several Osprey monographs, only one I can vouch for is
    > Inchon: the Last Great Amphibious Assault by Gordon L Rottman

    You will note this list is quite American-centric, also oriented to the first year of the war in general, and the Chosen Reservoir campaign featuring US Marine Corps, albeit with strong supporting role by Royal Marines (Task Force Drysdale). PLUS bravura performance by the People's Volunteer Army.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,998
    SandyRentool said:

    Northern_Al said:

    I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.

    I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.

    If they had any integrity they'd prefer a truthful loser than a liar.
    If.....
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    Why on earth did we leave the beautiful wonderful EU to hook up with the dysfunctional pile of rubbish that is the contemporary USA?

    Yes, I’m looking at you @NickPalmer
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 1,418
    edited April 2022
    StuartDickson said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    What an utter waste of an 80 seat majority.

    Labour majority surely underpriced now

    Nah! Lab Maj 4/1 is a clear Lay.
    2024 = 2010 Mark 2. The hesitancy of Tory MPs to boot Boris even is eerily similar to Labour MPs bottling getting rid of Brown.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,076
    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
    Thanks. I feel I’m gonna need this moral support in the coming days of hellish quasi-freebies
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited April 2022
    The BBC always says every election is close.

    It's very simple - they want to maintain interest but more importantly they will not take any risk at all of suggesting someone will win and then being wrong.

    Even when Blair was winning easily Andrew Marr was talking on BBC News the night before about "uncertainty", "stories of unusual movements in marginals", "nobody knows for sure what's going on" etc.

    It's basically a standard script recycled every single election.
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    Heathener said:

    Benpointer said:

    rottenborough said:

    Le Pen now out at 15.

    Like a stone today.

    I've not been paying attention today, what's happened to Le Pen? Was the debate another disaster for her?
    Not as much as 2017 but she was still skewered by Macron about being financed by Russian banks. It was a terrible moment for her.

    Macron was his usual arrogant self but I don't think that will dissuade people from voting for him in a two horse race.
    Not really "for Macron" but rather motivated enough to vote "Anyone but Le Pen" in a 2 horse race.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 19,404
    Northern_Al said:

    I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.

    I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.

    That's the Catch-22 the Conservatives sleepwalked into.

    They can't win again with Boris. And whilst this fiasco wasn't forseeable in 2019, something like this was pretty much inevitable, given the character of the man.

    Equally, they can't easily win with a not-Boris. Partly because Boris in unique and talented (as in Mr Ripley). Specifically, nobody connects with many new Conservatives the way he does. And that's not just down to the shameless fluency of his lies. It's a lot of it, but not just that.

    But also because any potential tall poppies have been cut down by Bozza, because he's afraid of alternatives. Which is a bit of a bugger when an alternative is needed.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    MikeL said:

    The BBC always says every election is close.

    It's very simple - they want to maintain interest but more importantly they will not take any risk at all of suggesting someone will win and then being wrong.

    Even when Blair was winning easily Andrew Marr was talking on BBC News the night before about "uncertainty", "stories of unusual movements in marginals", "nobody knows for sure what's going on" etc.

    It's basically a standard script recycled every single election.

    It’s ridiculously unenlightening.
    The BBC doesn’t need to take sides, but it could at least provide an informed view.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    I’ve had a few hours of preliminary wandering around Barcelona, and a few stops for beers on the way of course. Now having dinner in a lovely little restaurant just around the corner from George Orwell Place.

    I had Esqueixada to start, now eating their beach squid with black allioli. And a nice glass or two of garnacha to wash it down.



  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,192
    Cicero said:

    d_d said:

    "the despicable propaganda and the utter hate now being poured over the entire civilised world".

    wow, it is a surprisingly honest summary of how the conflict is being covered by Western media.

    If you actually watch and understand Russian media, you will realise how totally inappropriate this sarky comment truly is.
    I have a feeling this poster is not unfamiliar with Russian media.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    rottenborough said:

    StuartDickson said:

    I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).

    He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.

    Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
    Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
    And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.

    And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
    Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
    Thanks. I feel I’m gonna need this moral support in the coming days of hellish quasi-freebies
    It doesn’t get any cheaper when you leave the airport.

    Family meal (2X adults, 2X kids) at family restaurant.

    London, £40-£60*
    New York, $80-$120

    *I am starting to forget the price of things in London which is perhaps merciful.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon, you should catch an Uber and head for McSorley's so you can air your views on America AND Ireland to an eager, attentive audience.

    Though might want to start with charm offensive before embarking on offensive offensive.

    Anyway, have fun on the road to Mar-a-Lardo!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
    Thanks. I feel I’m gonna need this moral support in the coming days of hellish quasi-freebies
    It doesn’t get any cheaper when you leave the airport.

    Family meal (2X adults, 2X kids) at family restaurant.

    London, £40-£60*
    New York, $80-$120

    *I am starting to forget the price of things in London which is perhaps merciful.
    The hilarity is New York is cheap compared to Boston.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Alistair said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Almost like there is permanent value in laying the favourite in the next leader market.
    Is that not the basis of the entire bookmaking industry?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,435
    Alistair said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
    Thanks. I feel I’m gonna need this moral support in the coming days of hellish quasi-freebies
    It doesn’t get any cheaper when you leave the airport.

    Family meal (2X adults, 2X kids) at family restaurant.

    London, £40-£60*
    New York, $80-$120

    *I am starting to forget the price of things in London which is perhaps merciful.
    The hilarity is New York is cheap compared to Boston.
    I can remember a time when New York was cheap for travellers with the pound. Sigh.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    BlancheLivermore said:

    I’ve had a few hours of preliminary wandering around Barcelona, and a few stops for beers on the way of course. Now having dinner in a lovely little restaurant just around the corner from George Orwell Place.

    I had Esqueixada to start, now eating their beach squid with black allioli. And a nice glass or two of garnacha to wash it down.



    Man, you should get local tourist boards to bankroll your expedition.

    That meal looks very yummy.

    However, please assure me you will NOT eat any tiny tortoises, regardless of sauce. At least not before you cavort with them!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Tories suspend candidate over anti-Catholic comments

    Greg Turner, who is standing to become a councillor in East Renfrewshire referred to a local Catholic high school as a "bigot factory," and described Catholics as "papes".

    According to the Daily Record, The Tory was behind a profile known as "MearnsUnionist".

    https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20085178.tories-suspend-candidate-anti-catholic-comments/
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,849
    edited April 2022
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    Omnium, are you still on look out for Korean War books? Some I can recommend, in no particular order:

    > Battle for Korea: The Associated Press History of the Korean Conflict ed. by Robert J Dvorchak
    > Korean War: An Oral History - Pusan to Chosen by Donald Knox [also at least one other volume]
    > The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War by David Halberstam
    > Odd Man Out: Truman, Stalin, Mao, and the Origins of the Korean War by Richard C. Thornton
    > Truman and MacArthur: Policy, Politics and the Hunger for Honor and Renown by Michael D. Pearlman
    > Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the US in Korea 1950-51 by Russell Spurr
    > Chosin: Heroic Ordeal of the Korean War by Eric Hammel
    > Give Me Tomorrow: The Korean War's Greatest Untold Story - The Epic Stand of the Marines of Charlie Company by Patrick K O'Donnell
    > Korean War Almanac ed by Harry G Summers
    > Encyclopedia of the Korean War: A Political, Social and Military History ed. by Spencer C Tucker
    Several Osprey monographs, only one I can vouch for is
    > Inchon: the Last Great Amphibious Assault by Gordon L Rottman

    You will note this list is quite American-centric, also oriented to the first year of the war in general, and the Chosen Reservoir campaign featuring US Marine Corps, albeit with strong supporting role by Royal Marines (Task Force Drysdale). PLUS bravura performance by the People's Volunteer Army.

    Thanks very much.

    ( Iwon't pick up on all of these, but some certainly. Just finishing Max Hastings' tome currently.)
  • eristdooferistdoof Posts: 5,089
    algarkirk said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.

    If you're so sure, then Lay, Lay, Lay.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Gardenwalker said:

    Alistair said:

    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon said:

    Northern_Al said:

    Leon said:

    My carafe of utterly exquisite English white wine - in the fucking prunier caviar house FFS - in lovely gleaming LHR T5 - cost me less than 2 average glasses of Chilean cab sauv in a flaky badly run drinks bar in JFK T8

    Just so you know. we're all rooting for you; your bravery in facing up to a life of unimaginable hardship is truly impressive.
    Thanks. I feel I’m gonna need this moral support in the coming days of hellish quasi-freebies
    It doesn’t get any cheaper when you leave the airport.

    Family meal (2X adults, 2X kids) at family restaurant.

    London, £40-£60*
    New York, $80-$120

    *I am starting to forget the price of things in London which is perhaps merciful.
    The hilarity is New York is cheap compared to Boston.
    I can remember a time when New York was cheap for travellers with the pound. Sigh.
    Under the Cheney-Bush administration, right (and correct)?
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 6,523
    SeaShantyIrish2 said:

    BlancheLivermore said:

    I’ve had a few hours of preliminary wandering around Barcelona, and a few stops for beers on the way of course. Now having dinner in a lovely little restaurant just around the corner from George Orwell Place.

    I had Esqueixada to start, now eating their beach squid with black allioli. And a nice glass or two of garnacha to wash it down.



    Man, you should get local tourist boards to bankroll your expedition.

    That meal looks very yummy.

    However, please assure me you will NOT eat any tiny tortoises, regardless of sauce. At least not before you cavort with them!
    I’m not even eating tortillas, just in case!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    Keir Starmer is facing the JC of the Tories in GE2024
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 35,630
    Leon said:

    So far - about an hour - America is also stupidly expensive. I just had two glasses of OK Chilean red wine. £35 including tip

    Wtf.

    And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal

    The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed

    America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word

    F*ck me, not another travel-writing jolly that you'll moan about endlessly on here before producing a glowing puff-piece in the Torygraph, Times, Speccie or wherever?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 36,897
    edited April 2022
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Keir Starmer is facing the JC of the Tories in GE2024

    At the moment I think the local election results will be sufficiently bad enough for the Tories to get rid of Johnson before the next GE.
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