Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The Ukraine war as seen from Estonia – politicalbetting.com

124»

Comments

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,617
    TimT said:

    Ouch. I don't know if this has been discussed already on previous threads, but the Ukrainians now have a new word which has made its way into French too - macroner.

    Quant à l'expression "arrête de macroner", on lui donne la définition suivante : "se montrer très inquiet d'une situation, mais ne rien faire".

    In short, to macron is to express great concern for a situation but to do nothing. Ouch!!!

    LOL.

    Although surely they mean the Germany chancellor?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,617
    Farooq said:

    Johnson does seem to like having cloth wrapped around him...


    He looks like he's in a straight jacket
    LOL.

    Those two chaps on the right knew what they were about.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,617
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid.
    Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.

    I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.

    Zahawi might be a wild card.

    Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.

    I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.

    Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
    It just seems so very unlikely, but what if Truss is having a fantastically efficient time destroying all her potential rivals?
    I wouldn't rule it out. Personally, I don't rate her.
    "If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid."

    Does Javid have the numbers amongst MPs? Seems v unlikely to me, although I quite rate him as a minister (but not as PM).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    TimT said:

    Ouch. I don't know if this has been discussed already on previous threads, but the Ukrainians now have a new word which has made its way into French too - macroner.

    Quant à l'expression "arrête de macroner", on lui donne la définition suivante : "se montrer très inquiet d'une situation, mais ne rien faire".

    In short, to macron is to express great concern for a situation but to do nothing. Ouch!!!

    "He kept us out of war" redux?
  • OMG

    Hunt now fav for next leader on BF

    *Legendary modesty klaxon*

    I do believe an esteemed PBer pointed out on Sunday that backing Hunt had some value.

    A former cabinet minister said Sunak’s support had moved to Jeremy Hunt, the former foreign secretary who came second in the last leadership contest.

    You can get odds of around 9/1 on Hunt, I’m on odds of around 20/1 but I still think there’s a smidgen of value at 9/1 but I expect some of you will disagree.


    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/04/17/is-rishi-sunak-the-new-theresa-may/
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,326
    Re the reinfection story early. 1st infection, no symptoms, which suggests the vaccine held up pretty well against delta. Second infection, omicron, fever etc, but I am sure recovered (not stated, but it was January).
    What’s interesting is that omicron is different enough to almost b3 a different virus in terms of infection, although prot3ction remains against severe disease.
    Some studies coming out about updated vaccines, but note they are not against omicron yet.
  • What's this? Momentum have been tweeting positive stuff about Andy Burnham and an article he wrote on transport.

    Is something afoot?

    No, he cannot double job as an MP and Mayor of Greater Manchester.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,719
    Phil said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    HYUFD said:

    Farooq said:

    kinabalu said:

    Farooq said:

    If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid.
    Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.

    I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.

    Zahawi might be a wild card.

    Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.

    I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.

    Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
    If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
    I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice.
    Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
    Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.

    Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
    Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
    4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
    So you think Hunt can't win because people don't change their mind, but Javid can win because people change their mind.
    Hunt has already proved he cannot win with the membership, Javid never got to the membership (nor did Wallace who was not even a candidate then)
    True, but that was when Johnson was in his ascendency - the polls were extremely clear that a Johnson led Conservative party campaigning on a “get Brexit done“ platform would win handily (although not many predicted the final overwhelming result at the time!).

    Now, however, the Johnson brand is made up of squalid grifts & partying whilst everyone else had to stay at home whilst their relatives died. Consequently Hunt may do better this time around than you expect - at least he‘s a known, safe pair of hands & with Brexit “done” a competent policy wonk might perhaps be what the party decides to go for?

    The other candidates are all IDS style hardliners of one sort or another - popular with the faithful, but likely to alienate the wider electorate. Will the Tory members vote with their heart or their head come a leadership election? That‘s what will decide whether they have a chance in the next GE imo,
    Hunt has a rating with the public which is not great too, -22%. Far worse than Wallace and Javid and also still worse than Starmer
    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,719

    What's this? Momentum have been tweeting positive stuff about Andy Burnham and an article he wrote on transport.

    Is something afoot?

    No, he cannot double job as an MP and Mayor of Greater Manchester.
    Burnham will likely stand for Parliament again at the next general election, maybe even in his own seat of Leigh and if Starmer loses will be in prime position to be next Labour leader. If Starmer wins still up for a Cabinet post
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,295
    Dorries is on Twitter, kind of disinterring the Savile smear against Keir.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,574

    Dorries is on Twitter, kind of disinterring the Savile smear against Keir.

    Her career is over when Johnson goes, and she knows it.
  • Nigelb said:

    Kirby further clarifies that the drone was developed "for a set of requirements that very closely match what Ukrainians need right now in the Donbas"
    https://mobile.twitter.com/laraseligman/status/1517238038128177155

    Anti-artillery ?

    It targets short-arsed thugs from the back streets of St Petersburg?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Dorries is on Twitter, kind of disinterring the Savile smear against Keir.

    She is minister for kunst und kulture, nicht wahr?
  • Farooq said:

    Johnson does seem to like having cloth wrapped around him...


    He looks like he's in a straight jacket
    Where he belongs.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,996
    StuartDickson has yet to answer my question, so I will pose another for him: In his book, " A Moment on Earth", Gregg Easterbrook (who is not a conservative) says:

    'You may not want to hear this, but when the history of twentieth-century environmental politics is written, George [H. W.] Bush will indeed be ranked as the "environmental president."

    These things happened under Bush: the 1990 Clean Air Act, the strongest air-pollution in the world; international agreement to abolish CFCs; the end of ocean disposal of sludge; . . . '

    Easterbrook continues, listing another 10 items. And I can add this to his list: Bush brought in "cap-and-trade" mechanisms in air pollution control, which cut air pollution in American cities faster, and at lower costs, than had been predicted.

    Under his son, environmental improvements continued. For example, clean diesel regulations were established and enormous ocean preserves established in the Pacific. https://www.doi.gov/oia/press/2009/President-Bush-Creates-Three-New-Pacific-Marine-Monuments

    Does Dickson think these environmental improvements -- which were imitated in many other nations -- are a "healthy influence"?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,617
    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    Farooq said:

    If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid.
    Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.

    I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.

    Zahawi might be a wild card.

    Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.

    I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.

    Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
    It just seems so very unlikely, but what if Truss is having a fantastically efficient time destroying all her potential rivals?
    I wouldn't rule it out. Personally, I don't rate her.
    "If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid."

    Does Javid have the numbers amongst MPs? Seems v unlikely to me, although I quite rate him as a minister (but not as PM).
    I don't know, but it's precisely because of the non-dom thing that I suspect quite a few sensible MPs will be leery of supporting him. Imagine how clumsy it would look if you backed him and then some tax avoidance scandal blew up with your man in the middle of it.
    I think Hunt looks like the safest pair of hands around. Very experienced + untainted + not obviously mad. Is he literally the only one who ticks all those boxes?
    He is the one I want as a non-tory. It seems he might manage a sound administration that is not totally bonkers and full of lying hypocrites.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,941
    So the 2014 Russian loan to Le Pen still has not been repaid??

    Imagine this happening in the US, any political party with a loan from Russian or Chinese banks is going to be under FBI investigation.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AppleHelix/status/1517262495978864641

    More recent unrepaid, multi million euro loans from Hungary and the UAE.

    Way dodgier even than a Tory PPE contract.


  • WTF is radge? Is that a Scottish word?

    Edinburgh slang. The Hibs v Hearts derby match is now known as “El Radgio”.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,996
    Farooq said: "You might want to check to see whether the USA has anything in the debit column before you champion them as heralds of the green era.."

    I have, and you, in turn, might want to check whether the credits have been larger than the debits. Here's a little from Michael Shellenberger's book, "Apocalyse Never":

    "Between 1980 and 2018, U.S. carbon monoxide levels decreased by 83 percent, lead by 99 percent, nitrogen dioxide by 61 percent, ozone by 31 percent, and sulfur dioxide by 91 percent."

    And there have been similar improvements in water quality. For example, the Potomac River, for the first time in many decades, is now clean enough to swim in.
  • LDLFLDLF Posts: 160
    edited April 2022
    Javid is still the Conservative leader I'd like to see, and who might persuade me to vote Tory. Every leader is a reaction against the flaws of their predicessor. Javid seems somewhat more serious as an antidote, but without appearing moralising, sanctimonious judgementalism that seems to come with many politicians in the 'serious times need serious leaders' category. He's served in two departments that tend to show up poor politicians (Health and the Home Office) without much in the way of scandal. Zahawi would be another interesting choice (compare his performance when he first entered parliament to his performance now).

    Jeremy Hunt is certainly worth considering as a bet - he would certainly keep limerick-writers in work. But he just doesn't seem... interesting enough. Compare his personal story to Javid, Zahawi or even Truss. I don't think the membership would vote for Hunt unless the other candidates bumped each other and themselves off, 2016-style.

    Despite his long term as Health Secretary, my main memory of Hunt is, perhaps unfairly, his somewhat poor judgement (at least in the eyes of the public) as Culture Secretary during the phone hacking scandal. I don't think that we could blame Labour campaigners if they tried dusting off the old 'Murdoch stooge' accusations that, back then, led to a vote in parliament about whether he should retain his job.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,500
    "Matt Goodwin
    @GoodwinMJ
    🇫🇷How French plan to vote

    18-24: Macron 54 Le Pen 46
    25-34: Macron 40 Le Pen 60
    35-49: Macron 51 Le Pen 49
    50-64: Macron 54 Le Pen 46
    65+: Macron 65 Le Pen 35"
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.

    Shortening:
    Zahawi 22/1
    Baker 40/1

    Desperation setting in , anyone with the sign of a pulse is now in the betting
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,277

    WTF is radge? Is that a Scottish word?

    Edinburgh slang. The Hibs v Hearts derby match is now known as “El Radgio”.


    @onepureradge

    More like Glasgow slang
    radge:
    one who is not all there; a bit mental. someone who likes to noise others up and get into fights.
This discussion has been closed.