I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
From USA perspective, besides mundane matters such as global security & the like, key issue re: NATO has always been . . . wait for it . . . burden sharing.
Dog whistle to traditional and neo isolationists. But NOT just to these usual and unusual suspects.
Believe British position on NATO burden sharing, is always striving to be just enough ahead of French, Germans & etc, so UK can and will keep pointing (or flipping) the finger eastward . . .
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I watched a dicumentary about the U.K. food supply in WW2, how we went from 50% produced at home, to 90% at the end of the war. Clearly not suggesting that we do that again, but reducing food miles is good for the planet. Happily my asparagus bed will start cropping in days, and that’s about 400 yards to the plate from the allotment.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
I'm imagining being a Tory MP. I really, really think Boris should go, and that the lustre has gone, probably for good. But for the life of me I can't think who could replace him who has a chance in hell of making a great impression in time for the next general election. I've been through every possible alternative, and they all fall fundamentally short for one reason or another. So, although I think Boris must go, I also think he should stay. I'm going to cross my fingers and hope he has a revival, somehow.
I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.
Hunt would bring back a lot of middle-of-the-road voters to the Tory fold I suspect. Trouble is the Brexiteers would throw a fit.
It's time Brexiters learned they don't own either the country or the Conservative Party.
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
“not always healthy US influence”
Help me here: I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms. But let’s omit popular culture from the reckoning.)
That's a bit unfair. Personally I have a deep love and respect for the US, having lived there for a number of years. There is much that they do really well. But their society is being hollowed out by uncontrolled corporate greed.
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
“not always healthy US influence”
Help me here: I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms. But let’s omit popular culture from the reckoning.)
Women's lib, gay lib - tended to be pioneered over there. Albeit only parts of the USA.
The suffragettes got going on that issue long over five decades ago. Plenty of pioneering social reform movements in the rest of the world outwith the US.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Same with ex-MSP Ben Wallace. Genuine question.
He was a total dud at Holyrood, failing to shine even in the dire SCon parliamentary group, so why is he seen as a superstar at Westminster?
I'd have assumed projecting a serious demeanour over Ukraine, but in fact he was highly rated on ConHome before then. I assume it's a case of the appearance at least of competence - by not getting loads of bad press - and not being seen as a pushy rival to the top man (which even if people support taking down Boris, they may not like those who seem too keen to do it from within Cabinet).
Personally I still couldn't pick Wallace out of a lineup though. And does he offer anything that will excite members, if the opportunity arose?
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I watched a dicumentary about the U.K. food supply in WW2, how we went from 50% produced at home, to 90% at the end of the war. Clearly not suggesting that we do that again, but reducing food miles is good for the planet. Happily my asparagus bed will start cropping in days, and that’s about 400 yards to the plate from the allotment.
Quite.
*envious*
And we have had PBers getting all excited about depending on Australia for food. What was it one of us was getting all frothy about, Jerusalem artichokes or something?
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
“not always healthy US influence”
Help me here: I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms. But let’s omit popular culture from the reckoning.)
Women's lib, gay lib - tended to be pioneered over there. Albeit only parts of the USA.
The suffragettes got going on that issue long over five decades ago. Plenty of pioneering social reform movements in the rest of the world outwith the US.
The Equality State of Wyoming says hello! Remember 1869!
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
We haven’t been at war for 200 years
Is that right? Fortunate folk indeed, feel like even if you have the right policies you need to get lucky to avoid it for that long.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
73K posts is a very long game...
kle4 was hired by Gorbachev but never got his recall notice. Last Soviet agent still standing in the West.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Good looking, polite, early to condemn Johnson. But also probably a lot of an unknown character that they can prohect their hopes on.
Thx. Words fail me.
Yes, he seems an averagely competent and fairly decent MP, but I’ve not seen much remarkable about him, FWIW. It’s possible to shine as a select committee chair - Bryant for example has greatly enhanced his reputation in the last couple of years - but I don’t think Tugendhat really has. His interventions on Afghanistan, which originally brought him to public notice, were definitely hindsight rather than prescient.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I saw a Lebanese patient last week. Food and fuel prices are a real problem there as the economy is shit and they have Syrian refugees everywhere. She reckoned riots soon.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Same with ex-MSP Ben Wallace. Genuine question.
He was a total dud at Holyrood, failing to shine even in the dire SCon parliamentary group, so why is he seen as a superstar at Westminster?
And has been slavish in his support of phatboi, completely reversing his position at the time of rage that his Afghanistan evac was being compromised because doggies.
We didn't genuinely think phatboi was fucked even after fpn was paid, until Tuesday and we realised he was. I think we also have yet to grasp that everybody in the Cabinet is fucked too, for standing by him.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Stuart Dickson said: "I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms."
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
I don't know about anyone else, but I always find it totally convincing when someone who dislikes a party extemporises about what that party's membership will do.
Sometimes those outside a group can have a better sense of things. Those within cannot see the wood for the trees, as it were. And people are very good at deceiving themselves.
Of course it doesn't always work, especially where there are many axes to grind.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
73K posts is a very long game...
kle4 was hired by Gorbachev but never got his recall notice. Last Soviet agent still standing in the West.
Do you you think if someone posts the ‘wrong’ (by which I mean right) combination of words, he’ll activate?
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
“not always healthy US influence”
Help me here: I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms. But let’s omit popular culture from the reckoning.)
Women's lib, gay lib - tended to be pioneered over there. Albeit only parts of the USA.
The suffragettes got going on that issue long over five decades ago. Plenty of pioneering social reform movements in the rest of the world outwith the US.
Indeed, which is why I said 'tended'. There's been so much to and fro over the years.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
The quality of the 'special manipulation' went down after they started using so-called 'con scripts'.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
We haven’t been at war for 200 years
Is that right? Fortunate folk indeed, feel like even if you have the right policies you need to get lucky to avoid it for that long.
As a peace movement we can see that peace is so much more than just absence of war. It is about the presence of justice, no poverty, things like that," Gilliam says." If you have a wider view of what peace is you can question whether we've really had 200 years of peace."
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
73K posts is a very long game...
All according to plan, or so I am instructed to believe.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I saw a Lebanese patient last week. Food and fuel prices are a real problem there as the economy is shit and they have Syrian refugees everywhere. She reckoned riots soon.
The UK does need to import a lot of wheat (hard bread wheat) for human consumption, and other crops partly for animal feed. So ...
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
The thing about the Russian Trolls we've had on here is each one is less substantial than the one before. .
Quite so, longstanding Russian trolls like me know how to be subtle about things and play the long game. These new youthful trolls are just so lazy, it's a disgrace.
73K posts is a very long game...
kle4 was hired by Gorbachev but never got his recall notice. Last Soviet agent still standing in the West.
Do you you think if someone posts the ‘wrong’ (by which I mean right) combination of words, he’ll activate?
Yes. But what three words are they? It'll be interesting to see if he incurs the wrath of rcs when he makes an effort to spread propaganda about how well Russia performs on the battlefield.
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
We haven’t been at war for 200 years
Is that right? Fortunate folk indeed, feel like even if you have the right policies you need to get lucky to avoid it for that long.
As a peace movement we can see that peace is so much more than just absence of war. It is about the presence of justice, no poverty, things like that," Gilliam says." If you have a wider view of what peace is you can question whether we've really had 200 years of peace."
That'd be a bit harsh to say the least!
What would Gustavus Adolphus say?
What he said when his nice new flagship turned turtle?
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
But that puts Macron on 57.5% already and when you add and detract their respective tendencies to over or under perform we are very much in the right band. A further collapse in Le Pen support would be a threat to my winnings!
Additional US military aid package for Ukraine includes more than 121 Phoenix Ghost systems — Pentagon. They are similar to armed Switchblade drones but were operatively developed for the needs of Ukraine https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517243718880931840
Unclear what it is, other than the same concept as Switchblade.
My hunch is that is was something that was already being developed for Special Operations Command that the DOD has decided to give to Ukraine as it's a good fit with their requirements. SOCOM has had a lot of loitering munitions programmes, and Phoenix Ghost is probably the result of one of them, rather than something entirely new.
I was listening to a Finnish Social Democratic MP on the radio earlier. He was in Stockholm to inform the ongoing Swedish parliamentary enquiry into NATO membership (incidentally, now being hurried through and reporting mid-May not end-May).
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Then why is he skeptical about Finnish membership?
Overwhelming support does not equal unanimous support. Parliamentary unanimity in any legislature is rare. He did not expound his own reservations, but Nordic media is full of Pros n Cons type articles and shows. It’s a hot topic.
And also (pls correct if wrong) this is a HUGE sea change for Finns and Swedes, esp. on left side of spectrum.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Yes. I don’t think I’m over-egging it to say that many Swedes are profoundly uncomfortable with NATO membership because it just seems so damned “un-Swedish”. We haven’t been at war for 200 years, and folks aren’t super-keen to change that record. This is not a left/right issue (all politics in Sweden is “left” anyway, even the so-called “conservatives”; nothing is more conservative in Sweden than social democracy).
Lukewarm on NATO myself as I think it varies between being a truly defensive alliance and a projection of not always healthy US influence. I'd be delighted if Sweden and Finland joined, as they would weight the "defensive alliance" end of things.
“not always healthy US influence”
Help me here: I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms. But let’s omit popular culture from the reckoning.)
That's a bit unfair. Personally I have a deep love and respect for the US, having lived there for a number of years. There is much that they do really well. But their society is being hollowed out by uncontrolled corporate greed.
Of course it’s unfair. But I note that you did not answer my query. (Thanks @Farooq , who did.)
I actually thought of one: the Good Friday Agreement.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
But that puts Macron on 57.5% already and when you add and detract their respective tendencies to over or under perform we are very much in the right band. A further collapse in Le Pen support would be a threat to my winnings!
Melenchon voters are far less enthusastic for Macron than 2017 and that still shows in the polls.
Many will simply stay home rather than vote for Macron again, even if they do not vote for Le Pen
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I watched a dicumentary about the U.K. food supply in WW2, how we went from 50% produced at home, to 90% at the end of the war. Clearly not suggesting that we do that again, but reducing food miles is good for the planet. Happily my asparagus bed will start cropping in days, and that’s about 400 yards to the plate from the allotment.
Quite.
*envious*
And we have had PBers getting all excited about depending on Australia for food. What was it one of us was getting all frothy about, Jerusalem artichokes or something?
And did those mouths in modern time Scarf up England's artichokes green? And was the holy Veg of God In England's fragrant kitchens seen?
. . .
Bring me my veg of mellow green! Bring me my food of wonder! Bring me my tasty bud: oh lips unfold! Bring me my artichoke of Bognor!
An interesting anomaly in the ELABE poll is that Marine Le Pen is winning among supporters of Melenchon's party, but behind among people who voted for Melenchon in the first round.
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
That was the case in the last leadership election, but the next one will be fought in massively different circumstances.
For a start, Remain is no longer an option.
I am not convinced the Tory Party are ready yet.
Brexit is not just a “policy” it’s a whole worldview. The Tories (and certainly the membership) are still too intoxicated by the Brexit fever dream.
Don’t agree with this. To most Brexit is done and dusted. There are ongoing trade deals, but there always will be. But we have left the eu, no more money is being paid to the eu coffers to spend moving parliament every six months (or whatever it was).
Tories still LOVE the Brexit Weltanshauung. Bashing foreigners, asylum seekers, the wokerati; railing against the iniquity of the Northern Ireland Protocol; pretending that the UK is outperforming the G7; believing that the country can achieve prosperity via freeports and still-yet-undefined “deregulation”.
They’d go for Lord Frost if it wasn’t for the inconvenient fact he is unelected.
Plus pounds and ounces, and poles and ells, and the supposed traditional British love of queuing, especially at Dover.
Is it possible this is confirmation bias from selected idiots on twitter?
The pounds and ounces is well enough documented from Tory MPs. The queuing is the well reported problems at Dover. The rest is me being sarcastic.
BTW you do know that the leader of the Scottish farmers blamed Brexit as a major problem for the industry? But the BBC snipped out the B- word in their broadcast. . So that's OK then when we all starve because of the lack of food security promoted by the Brexiters such as those on here.
Do you think we are going to starve then? I mean the food options at Waitrose were a bit restricted today, but I didn’t go hungry.
The way things are going, I'd start worrying if the world situation doesn't improve this year. Fertiliser, grain, etc. will be shorter than usual.
I watched a dicumentary about the U.K. food supply in WW2, how we went from 50% produced at home, to 90% at the end of the war. Clearly not suggesting that we do that again, but reducing food miles is good for the planet. Happily my asparagus bed will start cropping in days, and that’s about 400 yards to the plate from the allotment.
Quite.
*envious*
And we have had PBers getting all excited about depending on Australia for food. What was it one of us was getting all frothy about, Jerusalem artichokes or something?
And did those mouths in modern time Scarf up England's artichokes green? And was the holy Veg of God In England's fragrant kitchens seen?
. . .
Bring me my veg of mellow green! Bring me my food of wonder! Bring me my tasty bud: oh lips unfold! Bring me my artichoke of Bognor!
[apologies to the spirit of William Blake]
We'll be discussing recipes for Glastonbury apple crumble next ...
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
I watched him speak at the debate. He seemed genuinely emotional about it. It is with a heavy heart style.*
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
How can Hunt be past it? What world are we living in? He can only be in his 50’s.
We no longer give second chances. Leaders used to lose elections and then fight another. They still do in a lot of the world. But unless it was close, and it wasn't, I don't see a former leader candidate getting a look in again.
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
I watched him speak at the debate. He seemed genuinely emotional about it. It is with a heavy heart style.*
* ™ Robin Cook.
He's one of the more interesting characters on the Tory benches. Holds some views I for one disagree with a lot, and can even seem a bit ridiculous, but he also holds some surprising dissenting opinions, and unlike, say, Rees-Mogg, clearly sticks to his views and thus outsider status.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
Additional US military aid package for Ukraine includes more than 121 Phoenix Ghost systems — Pentagon. They are similar to armed Switchblade drones but were operatively developed for the needs of Ukraine https://mobile.twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1517243718880931840
Unclear what it is, other than the same concept as Switchblade.
My hunch is that is was something that was already being developed for Special Operations Command that the DOD has decided to give to Ukraine as it's a good fit with their requirements. SOCOM has had a lot of loitering munitions programmes, and Phoenix Ghost is probably the result of one of them, rather than something entirely new.
The speculation is that it’s just Switchblade modified for the Ukraine requirements. One thing stated is that it requires little or no additional training for those familiar with Switchblade.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
I watched him speak at the debate. He seemed genuinely emotional about it. It is with a heavy heart style.*
* ™ Robin Cook.
He's one of the more interesting characters on the Tory benches. Holds some views I for one disagree with a lot, and can even seem a bit ridiculous, but he also holds some surprising dissenting opinions, and unlike, say, Rees-Mogg, clearly sticks to his views and thus outsider status.
I often don't agree with him, but he does appear to be an MP who sits down and actually thinks about an issue in detail for a long time before speaking.
Stuart Dickson said: "I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms."
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
Your link doesn't work, but that certainly sounds a healthy influence. I'm wary of how US influence has historically been used but that doesn't mean it can't be for good purposes.
An interesting anomaly in the ELABE poll is that Marine Le Pen is winning among supporters of Melenchon's party, but behind among people who voted for Melenchon in the first round.
I think it was @SouthamObserver who suggested that a lot of soft leftists voted Melenchon so as to keep Le Pen out of the runoff, and came within a percentage of doing so. If so they aren't wedded to his party.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
Stuart Dickson said: "I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms."
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
Friend of mine who was a strong Bernie Sanders supporter in 2020, whose views on US foreign policy are even LESS positive that Stuart's, is a HUGE fan of this program, and of W's role in making it happen.
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
An interesting anomaly in the ELABE poll is that Marine Le Pen is winning among supporters of Melenchon's party, but behind among people who voted for Melenchon in the first round.
Does this suggest that significant numbers of Melenchon's fellow lefties a) abstained first round; and/or b) skipped over Melenchon and voted for Le Pen
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
So you think Hunt can't win because people don't change their mind, but Javid can win because people change their mind.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
Stuart Dickson said: "I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms."
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
Your link doesn't work, but that certainly sounds a healthy influence. I'm wary of how US influence has historically been used but that doesn't mean it can't be for good purposes.
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
So you think Hunt can't win because people don't change their mind, but Javid can win because people change their mind.
Hunt has already proved he cannot win with the membership, Javid never got to the membership (nor did Wallace who was not even a candidate then)
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
Stuart Dickson said: "I’m struggling to think of a single example of healthy U.S. influence during the last five decades. (Beyond a few classic sitcoms."
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
Your link doesn't work, but that certainly sounds a healthy influence. I'm wary of how US influence has historically been used but that doesn't mean it can't be for good purposes.
US science over the last fifty years has also been enormously beneficial.
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
So you think Hunt can't win because people don't change their mind, but Javid can win because people change their mind.
Hunt has already proved he cannot win with the membership, Javid never got to the membership (nor did Wallace who was not even a candidate then)
Well exactly, Javid never even got to the membership because he lost to both Hunt and Gove.
And now he's got this dodgy tax thing out there in the public.
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
If Boris goes soon, it’s Truss v Javid. Both can probably steady the ship, though it’s hard to see either tackling the cost of living crisis.
I don’t think Wallace wants it, though he could get it if he really went for it.
Zahawi might be a wild card.
Neither the membership nor the parliamentary party nor the country want Raab or Patel or Rishi or Gove. They are all busted flushes.
I don’t know why people keep ramping Hunt or Tugendhat. Only Brexiters (or apostate Brexiters, like Truss) need apply.
Isn't Javid damaged by his non-dom status? I have a nagging sense that it would be a big mistake to go for him.
If they do it - and I've become less certain that they won't - they need to ask themselves who matches up well against Starmer and isn't tainted by association with Johnson. My tip is Mordaunt but the big value's probably gone on her.
I mean, Hunt. He's clean of Johnson and even stood against him, he's faced Labour shadows over the dispatch box and come off well. He's generally respected and not seen as a ideological loon or any more weird than any other senior politician. To me he seems like the absolutely obvious choice. Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
Hunt got just 33% in the 2019 Tory members vote, he will not get it.
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
Remind me again how Javid did in 2019?
4th with MPs but he never got to the membership vote
So you think Hunt can't win because people don't change their mind, but Javid can win because people change their mind.
Hunt has already proved he cannot win with the membership, Javid never got to the membership (nor did Wallace who was not even a candidate then)
Well exactly, Javid never even got to the membership because he lost to both Hunt and Gove.
And now he's got this dodgy tax thing out there in the public.
And yet when you eliminate the impossible, the unfeasible, and the vanishingly unlikely…
Rishi Sunak drifting again: now 13/1 for Next Con Leader.
Shortening: Zahawi 22/1 Baker 40/1
All three are impossible at any odds. Leading the field is Truss, Hunt and Tugendhat. Truss is very unlikely as the time will come when, as Sunak has discovered, being in this current government is a handicap; + she is lightweight. Hunt and Tugendhat are the real favourites.
Why do people rate Tom Tugendhat? Genuine question.
Because the people we're comparing him to are even worse?
If you rule out anyone prepared to stay in Johnson's cabinet (and you should, really), and Hunt is past it (he kind of is), who is next in line?
Ben Wallace, Hunt and Tugendhat would not get through the membership vote and being in Boris' cabinet is not a hindrance to Tory members who get the final say on next Tory leader and PM in power
Do you think Baker is setting himself as both Johnson's assassin and pretender?
Baker will not get to the final 2 even if he stands.
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
The new IDS.
Wallace has a higher net favourability than Starmer, +2% to -1%.
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
Comments
Dog whistle to traditional and neo isolationists. But NOT just to these usual and unusual suspects.
Believe British position on NATO burden sharing, is always striving to be just enough ahead of French, Germans & etc, so UK can and will keep pointing (or flipping) the finger eastward . . .
Clearly not suggesting that we do that again, but reducing food miles is good for the planet.
Happily my asparagus bed will start cropping in days, and that’s about 400 yards to the plate from the allotment.
Personally I still couldn't pick Wallace out of a lineup though. And does he offer anything that will excite members, if the opportunity arose?
*envious*
And we have had PBers getting all excited about depending on Australia for food. What was it one of us was getting all frothy about, Jerusalem artichokes or something?
It’s possible to shine as a select committee chair - Bryant for example has greatly enhanced his reputation in the last couple of years - but I don’t think Tugendhat really has. His interventions on Afghanistan, which originally brought him to public notice, were definitely hindsight rather than prescient.
We didn't genuinely think phatboi was fucked even after fpn was paid, until Tuesday and we realised he was. I think we also have yet to grasp that everybody in the Cabinet is fucked too, for standing by him.
The PEPFAR program, started under George W. Bush, has saved an estimated 20 million lives, most of them in sub-Saharan Africa -- so far. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President's_Emergency_Plan_for_AIDS_Relief)
I don't know if you would consider that a healthy influence, or not. I'd be interested in hearing your views on the subject. And the views of, for example, Nick Palmer.
Of course it doesn't always work, especially where there are many axes to grind.
Even Spam. Just think of A&B. Which came first?
http://www.scottishfoodstore.co.uk/online-store.php#!/Grants-A&B-Roll-226g/p/33038523/category=0
https://mobile.twitter.com/JimJarmuschHair/status/1517159652357668864
That'd be a bit harsh to say the least!
What would Gustavus Adolphus say?
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1517188639524069379?s=20&t=w4wRbdSWzqfK2XKAXbiFVA
At the moment the likeliest final 2 would be Hunt and Wallace in my view from MPs, with members then voting clearly for Wallace
(Thanks @Farooq , who did.)
I actually thought of one: the Good Friday Agreement.
Many will simply stay home rather than vote for Macron again, even if they do not vote for Le Pen
https://www.dsl.ac.uk/results/radge
https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/radge
Amused to see the Brandling Villa in Gosforth name checked.
Proppa radge that, man, like.
https://www.dsl.ac.uk/entry/snd/radge
Ok, he looks a bit like a startled house elf, but that's better than the smirking flatulent flesh wreck they currently have in charge. Why haven't they done this thing already? I don't get it.
But the pickle the Conservatives are in is this. Every possible candidate for PM at Christmas 2022 is impossible.
Johnson? Unthinkable.
Sunak? Blown it.
Patel? Clearly mad.
Hunt/Tugdenhat/Smith? Party isn't ready to make that U-turn.
And so on.
And yet- the PM this Christmas is a currently serving Conservative MP. It's just impossible to imagine which one.
Scarf up England's artichokes green?
And was the holy Veg of God
In England's fragrant kitchens seen?
. . .
Bring me my veg of mellow green!
Bring me my food of wonder!
Bring me my tasty bud: oh lips unfold!
Bring me my artichoke of Bognor!
[apologies to the spirit of William Blake]
Wallace or maybe Javid are the likely replacements if Boris goes. MPs will also likely keep Truss from the final 2
* ™ Robin Cook.
Accompanying kit.
U.S. aid updated with:
- 72 155mm howitzers (in addition to the 18 pledged earlier)
- 72 ''Tactical Vehicles'' (To tow 155mm howitzers)
- 121+ Phoenix Ghost reconnaissance UAVs
https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1517214527946956801
He is the anti Boris, dull but competent and serious with no scandal. If Boris goes he is the heir apparent now
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Keir_Starmer
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Ben_Wallace(popup:search/keir starmer)?content=all
The 31-year-old woman from Spain became infected with the Delta variant followed by the Omicron variant of the virus in under three weeks.
a) abstained first round; and/or
b) skipped over Melenchon and voted for Le Pen
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President's_Emergency_Plan_for_AIDS_Relief
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Boris_Johnson
The danger for Starmer is Wallace is Major to his Kinnock if partygate kills off Boris as the poll tax killed off Thatcher in 1990
And now he's got this dodgy tax thing out there in the public.
Hunt now fav for next leader on BF
I think only a true gotterdammerung in the locals could deliver Hunt. Which is not going to happen.
(Not heard the song, but when did that matter?)
Ukraine 2.2
Italy 4.9
Sweden 8.6
UK 13
Spain 24
Greece 46
Poland 46
80 bar
I don’t see any resemblance with Johnson, except possibly waist size.