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The Ukraine war as seen from Estonia – politicalbetting.com
The Ukraine war as seen from Estonia – politicalbetting.com
(This was posted on the previous thread from a longstanding PBer)
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I think this is a very useful perspective; it goes to the question "what next"?
And if Russia attempts to lower the intensity of the war, does Ukraine follow? Or do their allies continue to supply them with weapons to maintain their aggressive defence?
But it is a good thread header, as all @Cicero 's comments have been.
In turn he seems to have gone Full Extra Tonto - and I see little sign of rationality in what he is doing.
If he actually believes that he is in an existential fight - why give up? why not go further and further?
Terrible airport and terrible to get to. In keeping with terrible American airlines.
As for South Africa, I've flown from most of them. King Shaka International at Durban is probably my pick: not a bad airport at all. You can fly there direct from the UAE with Emirates which adds an arguably better option than Jo'burg.
Nothing, not even Singapore Airlines, will ever be quite the same for you again. Dodgy country, utterly outstanding airline.
(And both amusing and irritating that despite being in OneWorld, Qatar won't let riff raff business passengers from other airlines use their top Business lounges. Only their own true business pax are allowed in.)
He is personally skeptical about Finnish membership, but he said that it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that Finland will apply to join in the very near future. He said parliamentary support there is overwhelming. That will almost certainly heavily affect the debate in Sweden.
Yeah - Full Tonto Squared.
Funny how in a few weeks, that comment has gone from "Defence Sec. loses plot, needs to be fired" to "Called it".
Would be interesting to see how the smaller nations of the EU view the performance of France and Germany in 'defending' Europe. Both seem to have been fairly useless so far.
We are constantly told that the relationship between Johnson and Tory party is entirely transactional. Time to realise the terms of trade have changed?
Like a stone today.
Labour majority surely underpriced now
There was some seriously good value. At least, I think so
Probably enough to work through all of their usable equipment stockpiles. No idea what sort of dent it would make in their stocks of artillery shells - but a lot of dying to be done, on both sides, if the will is there.
Although Macron's odds have shortened phenomenally, there might still be some value. More shortly.
55-59.99% is now the favourite at 4/6. That's in from the 7/4 I got at the start of this week.
60-64.99% has come in from 14/1 to 7/2. Blimey!!!
But, whereas 65%+ was 40/1 that has now drifted out to 50/1. Do I think this is likely? Not really. But 50/1 when today he polled 57.5%? Might be worth a flutter. It's really not likely but it's not 50/1 unlikely.
I win above 55% and I think he is going to be close to 60% which was my forecast all through.
When did Conservative MPs get so very very lost?
Shortening:
Zahawi 22/1
Baker 40/1
I always hear people saying he's into bread.
I'm not sure about the detail (well I am sure and being polite), but the intent is first class.
And NOT just for lefties. But like the man sang, the times they are a'changing.
Macron was his usual arrogant self but I don't think that will dissuade people from voting for him in a two horse race.
Am I way behind the curve?
What's also become clear is the quite substantial number of ghasts that the Tory parliamentary party have in their ranks.
(That'll flush out the folks from Nottingham.)
And then the clip of Chris Bryant. "He's toast [long pause] - he knows he's toast"
This does feel now like the narrative. Bluster all you like, you're toast. And when he goes in the bin, think what happens to the amoral lickspittles who have defended him.
I'm still not sure he won't cling on until 2024 but something shifted today.
Wtf.
And this is in a significantly shit airport terminal
The same at Luton would have been half the price. And served with greater skill and speed
America you need to shape up or I’m gonna have a word
It means the opposite of what you think it means.
I think 🤔
Surely it's only a fiver a glass?
I reckon that's what quite a lot of Tory MPs are going through at the moment.
And yet, some of the loveliest people around.
Cicero: what's the explanation for your superb English?
> Battle for Korea: The Associated Press History of the Korean Conflict ed. by Robert J Dvorchak
> Korean War: An Oral History - Pusan to Chosen by Donald Knox [also at least one other volume]
> The Coldest Winter: America and the Korean War by David Halberstam
> Odd Man Out: Truman, Stalin, Mao, and the Origins of the Korean War by Richard C. Thornton
> Truman and MacArthur: Policy, Politics and the Hunger for Honor and Renown by Michael D. Pearlman
> Enter the Dragon: China's Undeclared War Against the US in Korea 1950-51 by Russell Spurr
> Chosin: Heroic Ordeal of the Korean War by Eric Hammel
> Give Me Tomorrow: The Korean War's Greatest Untold Story - The Epic Stand of the Marines of Charlie Company by Patrick K O'Donnell
> Korean War Almanac ed by Harry G Summers
> Encyclopedia of the Korean War: A Political, Social and Military History ed. by Spencer C Tucker
Several Osprey monographs, only one I can vouch for is
> Inchon: the Last Great Amphibious Assault by Gordon L Rottman
You will note this list is quite American-centric, also oriented to the first year of the war in general, and the Chosen Reservoir campaign featuring US Marine Corps, albeit with strong supporting role by Royal Marines (Task Force Drysdale). PLUS bravura performance by the People's Volunteer Army.
Yes, I’m looking at you @NickPalmer
It's very simple - they want to maintain interest but more importantly they will not take any risk at all of suggesting someone will win and then being wrong.
Even when Blair was winning easily Andrew Marr was talking on BBC News the night before about "uncertainty", "stories of unusual movements in marginals", "nobody knows for sure what's going on" etc.
It's basically a standard script recycled every single election.
They can't win again with Boris. And whilst this fiasco wasn't forseeable in 2019, something like this was pretty much inevitable, given the character of the man.
Equally, they can't easily win with a not-Boris. Partly because Boris in unique and talented (as in Mr Ripley). Specifically, nobody connects with many new Conservatives the way he does. And that's not just down to the shameless fluency of his lies. It's a lot of it, but not just that.
But also because any potential tall poppies have been cut down by Bozza, because he's afraid of alternatives. Which is a bit of a bugger when an alternative is needed.
The BBC doesn’t need to take sides, but it could at least provide an informed view.
I had Esqueixada to start, now eating their beach squid with black allioli. And a nice glass or two of garnacha to wash it down.
Family meal (2X adults, 2X kids) at family restaurant.
London, £40-£60*
New York, $80-$120
*I am starting to forget the price of things in London which is perhaps merciful.
Though might want to start with charm offensive before embarking on offensive offensive.
Anyway, have fun on the road to Mar-a-Lardo!
That meal looks very yummy.
However, please assure me you will NOT eat any tiny tortoises, regardless of sauce. At least not before you cavort with them!
Greg Turner, who is standing to become a councillor in East Renfrewshire referred to a local Catholic high school as a "bigot factory," and described Catholics as "papes".
According to the Daily Record, The Tory was behind a profile known as "MearnsUnionist".
https://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/20085178.tories-suspend-candidate-anti-catholic-comments/
( Iwon't pick up on all of these, but some certainly. Just finishing Max Hastings' tome currently.)