The human factor – politicalbetting.com

System · April 2022

The human factor – politicalbetting.com

Another maternity scandal, this time a long-standing one which has, according to this story in the Sunday Times, been going on for ca. 50 years. Pregnant women suffering from epilepsy have been given a drug – sodium valproate – which (while effective at controlling epilepsy) is teratogenic, causing life-changing physical and neurological deformities to children. Its effects on the unborn child have been known about for some time but it continues to be prescribed. The risks were known to the manufacturer (Sanofi) but despite the relevant medical authorities being aware, women were not informed and no studies were done to assess how serious the risks might be. Even when reports of deformities started to come in from the 1980’s onwards, the medical authorities were slow to act – either in setting up studies or in informing women of the risks. It took until 2017 before a proper review was done with a view to the families getting compensation. Despite that report and a subsequent one in 2020 by Baroness Cumberledge recommending compensation, this has been refused by the government.

Read the full story here

Leon · April 2022

Christ, Macron is SO GAY

Omnium · April 2022

FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!

Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.

Leon · April 2022

Omnium said:
FPT

show previous quotes
Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.

The Liz Line at Paddington looks truly amazing, tho. Like something from Singapore, yet it is all across London

I reckon it is going to be quite the mind-boggler when it finally unshutters, in the next few months. A timely boost for the capital

And yes, Stoke, sad, sigh

Benpointer · April 2022

Omnium said:
FPT

show previous quotes
Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.

Quite amused to find out there's a British gymnast called Elizabeth Line.

She competed in the 2004 Olympics but since then she appears to have gone underground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Line_(gymnast)

Aslan · April 2022

bondegezou said:

show previous quotes
Aslan said:

bondegezou said:

Aslan said:

Foxy said:
Its almost as if IQ is a crap and spurious measure...
This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
Bollocks. (That's my professional opinion having a PhD in psychology and a chair at a Russell Group university.)
Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
I'm not here to do your homework for you. My consultancy fees are £1000 per day. I may have time in the autumn if the COVID work dies down.

HAHAHAHA. Called out and pathetically unable to back up your argument from authority. For something someone in your supposed position should be able to talk about from the top of your head.

geoffw · April 2022

Awful. At 17 I had a summer job in Germany packing up pills for Chemie Grünenthal, and for all I know could well have been packing Contergan, i.e. thalidomide. Just the possible association with it, albeit fleetingly, makes my blood run cold.

stodge · April 2022

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY

The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.

tlg86 · April 2022

Benpointer said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:
FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.
Quite amused to find out there's a British gymnast called Elizabeth Line.

She competed in the 2004 Olympics but since then she appears to have gone underground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Line_(gymnast)

From my village! Looks like she was two years above me at school, so I don't remember her.

Funnily enough, a girl in my sister's year won a silver in gymnastics at the Commonwealth games in 1998:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kelly_Hackman

Foxy · April 2022

Benpointer said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:
FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.
Quite amused to find out there's a British gymnast called Elizabeth Line.

She competed in the 2004 Olympics but since then she appears to have gone underground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Line_(gymnast)

Her career has gone down the tube.

HYUFD · April 2022

stodge said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.

I suspect this photo of Macron is what Leon was referring to rather than the polls
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10726601/Emmanuel-Macron-tries-woo-younger-voters-series-moody-scenes-photos.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

Leon · April 2022

stodge said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.

He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows

FF43 · April 2022

NorthofStoke said:

show previous quotes
Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.

Probably right IMV. Logistics is the post-industrial present and future and Stroke is probably is as well placed geographically as anywhere to get that business.

HYUFD · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows

Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

NorthofStoke said:

show previous quotes
Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.

One of the big problems in Stoke for many years, the terrible quality of education across the city. I believe they totally reorganised the whole system about 10 years ago because it was such a shambles and so many failing schools.

You are going to struggle to attract businesses and people to an area if the state schools are rated so poorly.

Gardenwalker · April 2022

FPT @NorthofStoke

I have to confess I’m not an expert on Stoke.
But I would note, too, on the positive side, the rise of Bet365.

I agree with you that Stoke could have a positive future, as a kind of high growth dormitory with enviable links to Birmingham, Manchester (and Liverpool).

Kind of like Warrington or Milton Keynes, with pottery kilns.

Here’s a link to a blog which suggests there is some fantastic architecture in Stoke which perhaps needs better joining up.

http://www.jonestheplanner.co.uk/?m=1

What it needs is local vision to get there.
If I was in charge of Stoke I would indeed to be over-investing in the local realm in order to draw in workers from the above-mentioned cities.

HYUFD · April 2022

FrancisUrquhart said:

show previous quotes
NorthofStoke said:

Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.
One of the big problems in Stoke for many years, the terrible quality of education across the city. I believe they totally reorganised the whole system about 10 years ago because it was such a shambles and so many failing schools.

You are going to struggle to attract businesses and people to an area if the state schools are rated so poorly.

St John's College in Stoke is a former grammar school and still rated Outstanding

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Joseph's_College,_Stoke-on-Trent

Omnium · April 2022

Re header: I've been feeling a little guilty that I posted early on this thread and really hadn't read the header. I now have, but @Cyclefree you sum up all the issues and conclude entirely correctly so far as I can see.

Leon · April 2022

HYUFD said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)

FrancisUrquhart · April 2022

HYUFD said:

show previous quotes
FrancisUrquhart said:

NorthofStoke said:

Gardenwalker said:

ydoethur said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
And yet weirdly it gets literally millions of tourists - or did. Whether they will go back now the council have shut all the museums is another question.

Parts of Stoke are alright. The station is impressive, as is the university campus.

But I must admit my favourite sight in Stoke is a big green sign that says 'Uttoxeter A50.'
The council closing all the museums - which had the finest collection of ceramics in the country (better than the V&A) - tells us a lot of places like Stoke.

Both the place itself, and how it is treated by the rest of the country.
Not the main museum with the big collection. The proposal is to be seasonal with the Gladstone Pottery Museum which is an industrial heritage site and also reducing opening times at the City Museum. Regrettable, but let's not exaggerate. An injection of funds to spearhead more regeneration via culture would be money well spent though.

Ignoring the exaggerated rhetoric about Stoke on this thread, there is a mixed picture. There are areas of post-industrial dereliction and areas with a lot of poverty and social problems. There are also lots of aspects that are very positive and taking the Potteries and immediate area as a whole lot of there is a lot that is interesting and attractive and it has a great setting on the edge of the Peak District. Longer term I think it has more potential than some post-industrial areas simply because of its fantastic location within England. Less than an hour and half Stoke to Euston, central between Birmingham and Manchester with no geographical barriers.
One of the big problems in Stoke for many years, the terrible quality of education across the city. I believe they totally reorganised the whole system about 10 years ago because it was such a shambles and so many failing schools.

You are going to struggle to attract businesses and people to an area if the state schools are rated so poorly.
St John's College in Stoke is a former grammar school and still rated Outstanding

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St_Joseph's_College,_Stoke-on-Trent

That has always been an excellent school, but always lived outside the LEA system via being grammar / grant maintained / independent and I believe now academy. And as far as I know it is still selective. 10 years ago that was literally the only non-fee paying highly rated school in the area.

FrankBooth · April 2022

It sounds as though the 'big push' in the Donbass has started. I hope we got enough weapons there in time.

Malmesbury · April 2022

Omnium said:
Re header: I've been feeling a little guilty that I posted early on this thread and really hadn't read the header. I now have, but @Cyclefree you sum up all the issues and conclude entirely correctly so far as I can see.

Nothing changes. When I was young, there were some people suing the NHS for horrifically stupid mistakes. They were systemically attacked by lawyers and medical professionals, carefully briefing the press. Money grubbing and hysterical we’re terms thrown about.

Finally, Crown Immunity was often used to throw their cases out.

I recall Robin Day interviewing an apparatchik about this - who was astonished that anyone thought that people “attacking the system” deserved any better.

stodge · April 2022

HYUFD said:

Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017

The next challenge will be the Legislative Elections in June. Will LREM gain another majority? The truth is Le Pen couldn't translate her Presidential vote into legislative seats in 2017 - will she have more success this time?

LR is split between the two thirds who would support Macron and the one third like Wauqiez who would back Le Pen.

As for 2027 - who is the successor to Macron within LREM? I've heard one or two names banded about - I imagine Melenchon will run again - I wonder if Marine Le Pen will face her niece who might, perhaps, take on the Reconquete banner from Zemmour.

Malmesbury · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)

Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.

FF43 · April 2022

Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?

Roger · April 2022

Foxy said:

show previous quotes
Benpointer said:

Omnium said:
FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.
Quite amused to find out there's a British gymnast called Elizabeth Line.

She competed in the 2004 Olympics but since then she appears to have gone underground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Line_(gymnast)
Her career has gone down the tube.

A bridge too far

IshmaelZ · April 2022

Aslan said:

show previous quotes
bondegezou said:

Aslan said:

bondegezou said:

Aslan said:

Foxy said:
Its almost as if IQ is a crap and spurious measure...
This is just unscientific bullshit. IQ is THE most reliable metric in the whole of modern psychology. If it doesn't meet your scientific standards than you can throw out the entire field of study as worthless.
Bollocks. (That's my professional opinion having a PhD in psychology and a chair at a Russell Group university.)
Ok, so what statistical measure is MORE reliable amd repeatable than IQ in psychology? And I will laugh at you if you come back with a sub-component of IQ.
I'm not here to do your homework for you. My consultancy fees are £1000 per day. I may have time in the autumn if the COVID work dies down.
HAHAHAHA. Called out and pathetically unable to back up your argument from authority. For something someone in your supposed position should be able to talk about from the top of your head.

You seem as twitchy as fuck about something or other. To answer an appallingly unscientific point from PT, I pay £65 a session to a Jungian analyst out of my own pocket, but in another milieu I'd be paying the same to a shaman. Why does the expenditure of public or private money convert a pseudoscience into a science?

Also: try mushrooms. And DMT.

stodge · April 2022

Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)

She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.

StillWaters · April 2022

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?

Is it? It’s had a black box since 2006

Benpointer · April 2022

Foxy said:

show previous quotes
Benpointer said:

Omnium said:
FPT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

ydoethur said:

Omnium said:

Northern_Al said:

Andy_JS said:

CatMan said:

Leon said:

nico679 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

williamglenn said:
Macron's campaign has released a video using Stoke-on-Trent as a warning of what might happen to France if Le Pen is elected.

https://twitter.com/Macron2022/status/1516045565058072585
Of course Stoke didn't become like that because of Brexit, it voted for Brexit because it had become like that.
Less to do with Brexit and more that Stoke is a dump and people can’t escape quickly enough .
I had a girlfriend from Stoke, once. Very pretty elfin blonde. Helen

Worked in the record biz

I have never met someone so desperately keen NOT to ever return to their hometown
My father grew up in Stoke. He left to go to Uni and never went back. He does not have fond memories of the place
Here's a prediction: until the Left stops insulting places like Stoke-on-Trent they'll never win power again.
Here's another prediction: unless this government starts successfully "levelling-up" places like Stoke-on Trent they won't get re-elected.
Is it a government thing though? I'm very far from convinced that it is. Stoke or other places are treated the same as far more prosperous areas after all. It's almost like a sort of local malaise that affects some areas. If government action can solve it then I'd be the first to support that, but I think there's something else going on, and I've no idea what it is. (Perhaps a loss of pride? Stoke was once world reknown)
Government spending per head on transport in London - £877.76

Spending in the North East* - £314.11

And you could say much the same for all the other forms of infrastructure. Housing. Telecoms.

Even allowing for the difference in the cost of living, it is not 'treated the same as other, more prosperous areas' and it shows.

It's not the only problem but it is a big problem.

*Not being stupid I am aware Stoke isn't in the North East.
London is rather different though, and particularly for transport spending. Building an underground railway in Stoke would seem to be an unlikely winner. (One day though)
So you concede it's not treated the same way?
Oh yes. Absolutely. London is treated as an entirely different beast to anywhere else in the UK. Mostly the differences are around transport, and the contrast between driving to work or taking public transport is huge. I've no idea what percentage of the UK state revenues come from London, but it'll be a big number. Every other region in the UK benefits.

Visited the exterior sites of all the upcoming new-build Crossrail stations within the last month or so but noticed that TfL have left all the escalators on even though no passengers are due to be carried until "mid 2022"!
Paddington is really weird - there's a whole international airport type look to the west, and yet it's all cordoned off.

I find it astonishing that the project can be allowed to be 5 years behind but forever drifting and nobody now even cares. I don't think it's Saddiq Khan's fault particularly, but he needs to find someone to point the finger at.
Quite amused to find out there's a British gymnast called Elizabeth Line.

She competed in the 2004 Olympics but since then she appears to have gone underground.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elizabeth_Line_(gymnast)
Her career has gone down the tube.

She could, of course, be destined for great things - just running 5 years late.

Malmesbury · April 2022

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?

Admitting a mistake in our world is putting your hand up to be kicked.

So whoever calls time on this will be carefully shitting on a lot of people’s lawns.

People who have titles, honours and prestige. People who matter. People with furrowed brows and deep knowledge of Policy. And Important Things.

Unlike the pregnant mothers or their children. They are just Head Count.

….just to make me look ridiculous. And a man in my position can't afford to be made to look ridiculous.

Leon · April 2022

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.

Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin

Cyclefree · April 2022

StillWaters said:

show previous quotes
FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
Is it? It’s had a black box since 2006

According to the article it was being prescribed to pregnant women as late as September 2021.

Malmesbury · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin

She is a post-Fascist like Fini in Italy.

The boot boys are still behind her, they are just kept out of the light…

A friend moved to rural France, and perhaps foolishly, took part in an anti-McDonalds demo in the town, soon after arriving. He was startled to see Le Pen’s lot involved* and even more to see the tail of followers just out of shot of the cameras.

*McDonalds in France is often associated with immigrants (who make up many of the franchise owners) and with the corruption of French Blood and Soil (at least that is the line the Le Pen types take)

HYUFD · April 2022

stodge said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.

Or else the RN will likely win, runoff polls earlier had Le Pen beating Melenchon by a solid margin.

Once Macron goes the best chance for keeping out RN is probably Xavier Bertrand, the most popular figure in Les Republicains who lost their primary this time to the hapless Pecresse

HYUFD · April 2022

stodge said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:

Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
The next challenge will be the Legislative Elections in June. Will LREM gain another majority? The truth is Le Pen couldn't translate her Presidential vote into legislative seats in 2017 - will she have more success this time?

LR is split between the two thirds who would support Macron and the one third like Wauqiez who would back Le Pen.

As for 2027 - who is the successor to Macron within LREM? I've heard one or two names banded about - I imagine Melenchon will run again - I wonder if Marine Le Pen will face her niece who might, perhaps, take on the Reconquete banner from Zemmour.

I suspect LREM will win most seats but lose its majority

dixiedean · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin

But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.

Omnium · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin

There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.

MrEd · April 2022

On topic.

I take Epilim for my epilepsy (fortunately, the attacks are very regularly) and I have been taking it one form or another for around 15 years. In all that time, the medication has a very clear warning that it shouldn’t be taken by pregnant women or those who think they are. And my consultant has been clear about that all the time.

I can’t speak for everyone but I can speak for myself.

Foxy · April 2022

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?

I think the problem is that many other anticonvulsants have similar concerns. There are some safer ones in pregnancy but with other side effects, and changing can set off epilepsy too. Mostly I suspect sloth, and of course unplanned pregnancy.

Leon · April 2022

dixiedean said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.

This is so tiresome

I am just pointing out the facts of democracy. I am expressing no wish, whatsoever

2027 is so far away and times are so volatile projecting any "hopes" that far ahead is utterly futile, anyway, even if I had such "hopes" - which I do not

Meanwhile @FrancisUrquhart is right. Looks like the Battle of Donbas has begun. THAT is the news. that is where we can project hopes and express fears

Malmesbury · April 2022

Omnium said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.

Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….

rottenborough · April 2022

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?

BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.

Leon · April 2022

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….

America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

Malmesbury · April 2022

Omnium said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.

It occurs to me, again, how staggeringly lucky the French were to have De Gaulle. It could so easily have been a mad tyrant - the man on a white horse.

Instead he walked away from power, more than once, and left a solid legacy of democracy behind him.

That there are many things he did wrong - perhaps. But he really did re-establish the Idea of France.

geoffw · April 2022

Putin and Macron almost homo…. phones - for putain and maquereau.

stodge · April 2022

HYUFD said:

show previous quotes
stodge said:

Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.
Or else the RN will likely win, runoff polls earlier had Le Pen beating Melenchon by a solid margin.

Once Macron goes the best chance for keeping out RN is probably Xavier Bertrand, the most popular figure in Les Republicains who lost their primary this time to the hapless Pecresse

I suspect Macron's successor is Edouard Philippe, his first Prime Minister, and the successor to LREM is Horizons which will swallow up the moderate end of LR.

HYUFD · April 2022

stodge said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:

stodge said:

Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.
Or else the RN will likely win, runoff polls earlier had Le Pen beating Melenchon by a solid margin.

Once Macron goes the best chance for keeping out RN is probably Xavier Bertrand, the most popular figure in Les Republicains who lost their primary this time to the hapless Pecresse
I suspect Macron's successor is Edouard Philippe, his first Prime Minister, and the successor to LREM is Horizons which will swallow up the moderate end of LR.

Phillippe however has no charisma unlike Macron and Bertrand and, to be fair, Le Pen. Nor does his successor as PM Castex

dixiedean · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.
This is so tiresome

I am just pointing out the facts of democracy. I am expressing no wish, whatsoever

2027 is so far away and times are so volatile projecting any "hopes" that far ahead is utterly futile, anyway, even if I had such "hopes" - which I do not

Meanwhile @FrancisUrquhart is right. Looks like the Battle of Donbas has begun. THAT is the news. that is where we can project hopes and express fears

But Le Pen doesn't win. Not because a great many don't support her. They do. But because a huge number strongly oppose her. That won't change frankly.
See Corbyn 2017.

DecrepiterJohnL · April 2022

Re the header on epilepsy drugs causing birth defects, the original Sunday Times report is not paywalled.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-new-thalidomide-d5lmlwvdc

FrankBooth · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.

Leon · April 2022

dixiedean said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.
This is so tiresome

I am just pointing out the facts of democracy. I am expressing no wish, whatsoever

2027 is so far away and times are so volatile projecting any "hopes" that far ahead is utterly futile, anyway, even if I had such "hopes" - which I do not

Meanwhile @FrancisUrquhart is right. Looks like the Battle of Donbas has begun. THAT is the news. that is where we can project hopes and express fears
But Le Pen doesn't win. Not because a great many don't support her. They do. But because a huge number strongly oppose her. That won't change frankly.
See Corbyn 2017.

She loses because of her name.

Once the hard French right drops the Le Pen name I can see someone with her views winning, quite easily, if they can find a papabile candidate with a pleasing demeanour

I neither support this nor oppose this. I am just stating the case

Plenty of successful governing parties across the West have really dubious origins, from Israel to Ireland to Italy

rottenborough · April 2022

MrEd said:
On topic.

I take Epilim for my epilepsy (fortunately, the attacks are very regularly) and I have been taking it one form or another for around 15 years. In all that time, the medication has a very clear warning that it shouldn’t be taken by pregnant women or those who think they are. And my consultant has been clear about that all the time.

I can’t speak for everyone but I can speak for myself.

This is the Medicine regulator's leaflet:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950801/107995_Valproate_Patient_Booklet_v05_DS_07-01-2021.pdf

Not to be given to childbearing age women unless nothing else works.

Cyclefree · April 2022

rottenborough said:

show previous quotes
FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.

The report is here - https://www.immdsreview.org.uk/downloads/IMMDSReview_Web.pdf.

Note this paragraph in the covering letter:

"We have found that the healthcare system – in which I include the NHS, private providers, the regulators and professional bodies, pharmaceutical and device manufacturers, and policymakers – is disjointed, siloed, unresponsive and defensive. It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d’etre. It has failed to listen to their concerns and when, belatedly, it has decided to act it has too often moved glacially. Indeed, over these two years we have found ourselves in the position of recommending, encouraging and urging the system to take action that should have been taken long ago."

This was in 2020.

"It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d'etre."

That's pretty damning about a service we're always being told is the envy of the world.

BigRich · April 2022

FrankBooth said:
It sounds as though the 'big push' in the Donbass has started. I hope we got enough weapons there in time.

Where are you seeing this repoted?

And yes lets hope the Ukrainians are in a position to repel them.

Omnium · April 2022

Malmesbury said:

show previous quotes
Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
It occurs to me, again, how staggeringly lucky the French were to have De Gaulle. It could so easily have been a mad tyrant - the man on a white horse.

Instead he walked away from power, more than once, and left a solid legacy of democracy behind him.

That there are many things he did wrong - perhaps. But he really did re-establish the Idea of France.

The ungrateful, but not little, shit! Yes he was a strangely good force for France. Ridiculously aggressive in many ways. I think you're right about the 'idea of France'.

dixiedean · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
dixiedean said:

Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.
This is so tiresome

I am just pointing out the facts of democracy. I am expressing no wish, whatsoever

2027 is so far away and times are so volatile projecting any "hopes" that far ahead is utterly futile, anyway, even if I had such "hopes" - which I do not

Meanwhile @FrancisUrquhart is right. Looks like the Battle of Donbas has begun. THAT is the news. that is where we can project hopes and express fears
But Le Pen doesn't win. Not because a great many don't support her. They do. But because a huge number strongly oppose her. That won't change frankly.
See Corbyn 2017.
She loses because of her name.

Once the hard French right drops the Le Pen name I can see someone with her views winning, quite easily, if they can find a papabile candidate with a pleasing demeanour

I neither support this nor oppose this. I am just stating the case

Plenty of successful governing parties across the West have really dubious origins, from Israel to Ireland to Italy

You're right about the name. All this century the Right seems to think the answer is Le Pen.
Clearly the electorate think otherwise.

Leon · April 2022

Farooq said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

dixiedean said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
But the evidence is they don't.
You may continue to project your wishes five years ahead yet again if you like.
This is so tiresome

I am just pointing out the facts of democracy. I am expressing no wish, whatsoever

2027 is so far away and times are so volatile projecting any "hopes" that far ahead is utterly futile, anyway, even if I had such "hopes" - which I do not

Meanwhile @FrancisUrquhart is right. Looks like the Battle of Donbas has begun. THAT is the news. that is where we can project hopes and express fears
These days you're expressing a lot of revulsion for Putin, but I wonder why you don't extend that attitude to people who are on Putin's payroll. Le Pen certainly is. She's bought and sold by the Russian state, and she ramps Russian talking points.

How can that NOT be a "worry" for someone like who claims to despise Putin and what he stands for?

I've said a million times, I hope Le Pen loses (and I am sure she will lose) because of the encouragement her victory would give to Putin. That, by and of itself, rules her out. She is unacceptable

I'm not lying. I'm not hiding some dark "Le Pen Love". I want her to lose. I expect her to lose

An irresponsible bit of me might enjoy the comical drama of a Le Pen triumph IN NORMAL TIMES, but right now, this is not a time to be irresponsible, not as Putin mauls Ukraine, again

I want her to lose; I expect her to lose. C'est tout

Cyclefree · April 2022

rottenborough said:

show previous quotes
MrEd said:
On topic.

I take Epilim for my epilepsy (fortunately, the attacks are very regularly) and I have been taking it one form or another for around 15 years. In all that time, the medication has a very clear warning that it shouldn’t be taken by pregnant women or those who think they are. And my consultant has been clear about that all the time.

I can’t speak for everyone but I can speak for myself.
This is the Medicine regulator's leaflet:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950801/107995_Valproate_Patient_Booklet_v05_DS_07-01-2021.pdf

Not to be given to childbearing age women unless nothing else works.

That is what it says now. But if you look at the timeline in the report you will see that this was not always the case and that prescribing this medicine crucially depended on the woman being told of the risks. The issue is whether they were properly informed of the risks.

rottenborough · April 2022

9th of May still nagging away at Putin clearly...

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
· 2h
⚡️General Staff reports beginning of Russia's offensive in the east.

Russian forces stepped up offensive and assault operations in several directions in the east of Ukraine. Russia continues to form additional military units in occupied Crimea and in the bordering Rostov Oblast.

Leon · April 2022

FrankBooth said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.

Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/

Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs

FrankBooth · April 2022

Leon - the problem with Le Pen isn't just the name. She has been a sycophant for Vladimir Putin, a man with no regard for human life, dignity or freedom. A man who has his political opponents murdered. What does that say? She could be colossally naive I suppose.

rottenborough · April 2022

Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
·
27m
"It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight."

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1516163446244474881

Leon · April 2022

BigRich said:

show previous quotes
FrankBooth said:
It sounds as though the 'big push' in the Donbass has started. I hope we got enough weapons there in time.
Where are you seeing this repoted?

And yes lets hope the Ukrainians are in a position to repel them.

Daily Mail Online
@MailOnline
·
33m
'The battle for Donbas has begun': Zelensky says Russia has started large scale offensive https://trib.al/XddDdIC

https://twitter.com/MailOnline/status/1516161941097664523?s=20&t=xzBJanivxAqb_45IxIa6Sw

MrEd · April 2022

Cyclefree said:

show previous quotes
rottenborough said:

MrEd said:
On topic.

I take Epilim for my epilepsy (fortunately, the attacks are very regularly) and I have been taking it one form or another for around 15 years. In all that time, the medication has a very clear warning that it shouldn’t be taken by pregnant women or those who think they are. And my consultant has been clear about that all the time.

I can’t speak for everyone but I can speak for myself.
This is the Medicine regulator's leaflet:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950801/107995_Valproate_Patient_Booklet_v05_DS_07-01-2021.pdf

Not to be given to childbearing age women unless nothing else works.
That is what it says now. But if you look at the timeline in the report you will see that this was not always the case and that prescribing this medicine crucially depended on the woman being told of the risks. The issue is whether they were properly informed of the risks.

As mentioned earlier, as long as I’ve been taking Epilim - which is for 15 years - it’s always been highlighted on the medication it’s not for pregnant women and my consultant pointed out the same.

Leon · April 2022

The Battle for Donbas is really a battle for a certain kind of Europe. Free, democratic and unmenaced

If Putin wins, then.... Jeez. The ramifications are horrific

But if he loses, what will he do??

Foxy · April 2022

Cyclefree said:

show previous quotes
rottenborough said:

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.
The report is here - https://www.immdsreview.org.uk/downloads/IMMDSReview_Web.pdf.

Note this paragraph in the covering letter:

"We have found that the healthcare system – in which I include the NHS, private providers, the regulators and professional bodies, pharmaceutical and device manufacturers, and policymakers – is disjointed, siloed, unresponsive and defensive. It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d’etre. It has failed to listen to their concerns and when, belatedly, it has decided to act it has too often moved glacially. Indeed, over these two years we have found ourselves in the position of recommending, encouraging and urging the system to take action that should have been taken long ago."

This was in 2020.

"It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d'etre."

That's pretty damning about a service we're always being told is the envy of the world.

It isnt specifically an NHS issue, or for that matter a British issue. Other countries are wrestling with the same issue, and it is intrinsic to prescibing in women of child-bearing age.

geoffw · April 2022

rottenborough said:
9th of May still nagging away at Putin clearly...

The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
· 2h
⚡️General Staff reports beginning of Russia's offensive in the east.

Russian forces stepped up offensive and assault operations in several directions in the east of Ukraine. Russia continues to form additional military units in occupied Crimea and in the bordering Rostov Oblast.

Just checked my (Finnish) wall calendar. The 9th May is "Europe day" for the EU, celebrating "peace and unity in Europe".
Can we really believe VPP is aiming for peace on that day?

(yes, yes Victory Day in Russia)

BigRich · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.
Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/

Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs

Jonathan Haidt is brilliant, I would recommend his book 'the righthoods mind'

He is not a libertarian by any means, but be does recognise us as our own thing, not just another flavour of the 'basket of deplorables' and does managed to be very polite about liberaltarians.

I would be very suppressed if Elon Musk was not familiar with his work, and had put some thought in to this. whether Elons plan for Twitter will solve or at least partially solve this I don't know, but I think this is partly why Elon is trying to buy/take Twitter privet, so that he can at lest try.

geoffw · April 2022

rottenborough said:

Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
·
27m
"It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight."

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1516163446244474881

That's a great speech by Zelensky. I liked this: Russian missile strikes lead to only one thing - missile self-demilitarization of the Russian Federation.

Leon · April 2022

Amidst the gloom, a paradox

I've enjoyed the most beautiful Easter I can remember. Perfect weather, picnics with friends, London looking beautiful, hanging out with the offspring, Green Park and Waddesdon Manor and Kenwood today with the dog cantering in the sun..... And Covid a distant memory...

It has been lovely

Theuniondivvie · April 2022

FrankBooth said:
Leon - the problem with Le Pen isn't just the name. She has been a sycophant for Vladimir Putin, a man with no regard for human life, dignity or freedom. A man who has his political opponents murdered. What does that say? She could be colossally naive I suppose.

Och, there were naive people on here gazing adoringly at big, strong Vlad up until quite recently in the full knowledge of his lack of regard for human life, dignity or freedom, and his murderous approach to political opponents. At least Marine has stuck by her man.

Leon · April 2022

Theuniondivvie said:

show previous quotes
FrankBooth said:
Leon - the problem with Le Pen isn't just the name. She has been a sycophant for Vladimir Putin, a man with no regard for human life, dignity or freedom. A man who has his political opponents murdered. What does that say? She could be colossally naive I suppose.

Och, there were naive people on here gazing adoringly at big, strong Vlad up until quite recently in the full knowledge of his lack of regard for human life, dignity or freedom, and his murderous approach to political opponents. At least Marine has stuck by her man.

Alex Salmond is a PB-er???

kjh · April 2022

FPT to @Leon re you last post on IQ and Jews:

'unscientific shite' you say to my post.

One of us is a scientist, one isn't. One of us has specific knowledge in this area and one of us doesn't. One of us suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect.

Now I don't deny there may be genetic differences across races (you seem to have missed that point in my post) but the variables are so huge it is impossible to measure.

Let's look at the opposite end of your example. Are you really claiming that the average IQ of Nepal is 43 as measured in the same way? That is idiot level. If not then what makes you think the other end of the IQ range is right?

FPT @Aslan and @rcs1000:

Robert gave an excellent reply to you re being able to extend the IQ score of someone unfamiliar with IQ tests. Many decades ago I was heavily involved in this and I can confirm that its the case. In a previous discussion a few weeks ago with @hyufd I gave a number of the techniques in doing so. To be honest even for someone familiar with IQ tests there are some clever tricks you can employ that aren't obvious.

rottenborough · April 2022

Foxy said:

show previous quotes
Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.
The report is here - https://www.immdsreview.org.uk/downloads/IMMDSReview_Web.pdf.

Note this paragraph in the covering letter:

"We have found that the healthcare system – in which I include the NHS, private providers, the regulators and professional bodies, pharmaceutical and device manufacturers, and policymakers – is disjointed, siloed, unresponsive and defensive. It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d’etre. It has failed to listen to their concerns and when, belatedly, it has decided to act it has too often moved glacially. Indeed, over these two years we have found ourselves in the position of recommending, encouraging and urging the system to take action that should have been taken long ago."

This was in 2020.

"It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d'etre."

That's pretty damning about a service we're always being told is the envy of the world.
It isnt specifically an NHS issue, or for that matter a British issue. Other countries are wrestling with the same issue, and it is intrinsic to prescibing in women of child-bearing age.

I don't understand why a clinician would not tell a woman of child-bearing age that sodium valproate has a massive risk.

I mean how hard is it to say the words?

Andy_JS · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.
Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/

Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs

Something he doesn't address is why this seems to have affected Americans more than people from other countries.

EPG · April 2022

HYUFD said:

show previous quotes
stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.
Or else the RN will likely win, runoff polls earlier had Le Pen beating Melenchon by a solid margin.

Once Macron goes the best chance for keeping out RN is probably Xavier Bertrand, the most popular figure in Les Republicains who lost their primary this time to the hapless Pecresse
I suspect Macron's successor is Edouard Philippe, his first Prime Minister, and the successor to LREM is Horizons which will swallow up the moderate end of LR.
Phillippe however has no charisma unlike Macron and Bertrand and, to be fair, Le Pen. Nor does his successor as PM Castex

Any source for that? On the contrary, the reason Philippe left the government is that he was too popular compared to Macron. So back to Le Havre, with a dozen deputies in Paris organising his return after Jupiter departs.

rottenborough · April 2022

geoffw said:

show previous quotes
rottenborough said:

Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
·
27m
"It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight."

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1516163446244474881
That's a great speech by Zelensky. I liked this: Russian missile strikes lead to only one thing - missile self-demilitarization of the Russian Federation.

Indeed. RU will struggle to make new ones with the total embargo on their incoming supply chains.

rottenborough · April 2022

Leon said:
The Battle for Donbas is really a battle for a certain kind of Europe. Free, democratic and unmenaced

If Putin wins, then.... Jeez. The ramifications are horrific

But if he loses, what will he do??

1905. Vlad. 1905.

Tic toc...

Roger · April 2022

Following on from the photo of Macron I read about a libel case which led me to 'The Small Penis' rule which I hadn't heard of. I'm sure this will be known to cyclefree but it made me laugh.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_penis_rule

Leon · April 2022

Andy_JS said:

show previous quotes
Leon said:

FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.
Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/

Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs
Something he doesn't address is why this seems to have affected Americans more than people from other countries.

My guess is because America is the target for Chinese and Russian bot-farms and trolls, as the big western superpower. And because America speaks English, and English is the language of the entire internet (including Russian and Chinese bots). And because America has such obvious political fault-lines of guilt, anger, violence surrounding issues like race (but others too) which can be easily turned into earthquakes, see The Election of Donald Trump Esq

Note that second in line behind America is Britain. We have been targeted for similar reasons, via Sindy and Brexit, if not *quite* as successfully. Yet

tlg86 · April 2022

rottenborough said:

show previous quotes
Foxy said:

Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.
The report is here - https://www.immdsreview.org.uk/downloads/IMMDSReview_Web.pdf.

Note this paragraph in the covering letter:

"We have found that the healthcare system – in which I include the NHS, private providers, the regulators and professional bodies, pharmaceutical and device manufacturers, and policymakers – is disjointed, siloed, unresponsive and defensive. It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d’etre. It has failed to listen to their concerns and when, belatedly, it has decided to act it has too often moved glacially. Indeed, over these two years we have found ourselves in the position of recommending, encouraging and urging the system to take action that should have been taken long ago."

This was in 2020.

"It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d'etre."

That's pretty damning about a service we're always being told is the envy of the world.
It isnt specifically an NHS issue, or for that matter a British issue. Other countries are wrestling with the same issue, and it is intrinsic to prescibing in women of child-bearing age.
I don't understand why a clinician would not tell a woman of child-bearing age that sodium valproate has a massive risk.

I mean how hard is it to say the words?

Not wanting to break the bad news?

Well, you can have a child, but you're going to have to make quite a big decision...

Leon · April 2022

Roger said:
Following on from the photo of Macron I read about a libel case which led me to 'The Small Penis' rule which I hadn't heard of. I'm sure this will be known to cyclefree but it made me laugh.....

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_penis_rule

Hahaha

That's brilliant

IshmaelZ · April 2022

kjh said:

FPT to @Leon re you last post on IQ and Jews:

'unscientific shite' you say to my post.

One of us is a scientist, one isn't. One of us has specific knowledge in this area and one of us doesn't. One of us suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect.

Now I don't deny there may be genetic differences across races (you seem to have missed that point in my post) but the variables are so huge it is impossible to measure.

Let's look at the opposite end of your example. Are you really claiming that the average IQ of Nepal is 43 as measured in the same way? That is idiot level. If not then what makes you think the other end of the IQ range is right?

FPT @Aslan and @rcs1000:

Robert gave an excellent reply to you re being able to extend the IQ score of someone unfamiliar with IQ tests. Many decades ago I was heavily involved in this and I can confirm that its the case. In a previous discussion a few weeks ago with @hyufd I gave a number of the techniques in doing so. To be honest even for someone familiar with IQ tests there are some clever tricks you can employ that aren't obvious.

Fabulous self torpedoing post, given that the single most certain point in the entirety of psychology is that the Dunning Kruger effect is almost certainly bollocks

Leon · April 2022

geoffw said:

show previous quotes
rottenborough said:

Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
·
27m
"It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight."

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1516163446244474881
That's a great speech by Zelensky. I liked this: Russian missile strikes lead to only one thing - missile self-demilitarization of the Russian Federation.

It's hardly a novel observation, but Zelensky is an incredibly impressive public speaker. He has the natural "rhythm" of oratory. I don't speak a syllable of Ukrainian yet I can feel the force of his words

He's also mastered the rhetorical trick of repeating evocative place-names to drive home the blood-and-soil emotion. THIS IS OUR COUNTRY, WE WILL DIE TO DEFEND IT, HERE AND HERE AND HERE.

Leni Riefenstahl used it in her movies for Hitler, ironically

Cyclefree · April 2022

MrEd said:

show previous quotes
Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

MrEd said:
On topic.

I take Epilim for my epilepsy (fortunately, the attacks are very regularly) and I have been taking it one form or another for around 15 years. In all that time, the medication has a very clear warning that it shouldn’t be taken by pregnant women or those who think they are. And my consultant has been clear about that all the time.

I can’t speak for everyone but I can speak for myself.
This is the Medicine regulator's leaflet:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/950801/107995_Valproate_Patient_Booklet_v05_DS_07-01-2021.pdf

Not to be given to childbearing age women unless nothing else works.
That is what it says now. But if you look at the timeline in the report you will see that this was not always the case and that prescribing this medicine crucially depended on the woman being told of the risks. The issue is whether they were properly informed of the risks.
As mentioned earlier, as long as I’ve been taking Epilim - which is for 15 years - it’s always been highlighted on the medication it’s not for pregnant women and my consultant pointed out the same.

One of the apparent problems was a lack of effective communication between neurologists and maternity services, according to the report anyway.

Leon · April 2022

Deleted

HYUFD · April 2022

EPG said:

show previous quotes
HYUFD said:

stodge said:

HYUFD said:

stodge said:

Leon said:

I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
She may not - her niece might of course.

Melenchon will run again - it's a question of whether Macron's party outlives Macron or whether the centre-left and centre-right will come back under new candidates.
Or else the RN will likely win, runoff polls earlier had Le Pen beating Melenchon by a solid margin.

Once Macron goes the best chance for keeping out RN is probably Xavier Bertrand, the most popular figure in Les Republicains who lost their primary this time to the hapless Pecresse
I suspect Macron's successor is Edouard Philippe, his first Prime Minister, and the successor to LREM is Horizons which will swallow up the moderate end of LR.
Phillippe however has no charisma unlike Macron and Bertrand and, to be fair, Le Pen. Nor does his successor as PM Castex
Any source for that? On the contrary, the reason Philippe left the government is that he was too popular compared to Macron. So back to Le Havre, with a dozen deputies in Paris organising his return after Jupiter departs.

Gordon Brown was more popular than the more charismatic Blair for a time. As was May compared to the more charismatic Cameron.

Fat lot of good it did them at election time

Leon · April 2022

WARNING

There is a claim that footage is fake. From Iran?

I have no idea

FrankBooth · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
geoffw said:

rottenborough said:

Mick Ryan, AM
@WarintheFuture
·
27m
"It can now be stated that Russian troops have begun the battle for Donbas, for which they have been preparing for a long time. No matter how many Russian soldiers are driven there, we will fight."

https://twitter.com/WarintheFuture/status/1516163446244474881
That's a great speech by Zelensky. I liked this: Russian missile strikes lead to only one thing - missile self-demilitarization of the Russian Federation.

It's hardly a novel observation, but Zelensky is an incredibly impressive public speaker. He has the natural "rhythm" of oratory. I don't speak a syllable of Ukrainian yet I can feel the force of his words

He's also mastered the rhetorical trick of repeating evocative place-names to drive home the blood-and-soil emotion. THIS IS OUR COUNTRY, WE WILL DIE TO DEFEND IT, HERE AND HERE AND HERE.

Leni Riefenstahl used it in her movies for Hitler, ironically

I loved his switch from Hamlet to Churchill when he spoke to Parliament. Incidentally his wife was one of the writers for his comedy troupe. I wonder if she has much influence on his speeches.

The UN Ambassador made me chuckle too when he said 'I can inform you that the demilitarisation of Russia continues apace.'

Cyclefree · April 2022

Foxy said:

show previous quotes
Cyclefree said:

rottenborough said:

FF43 said:
Once it becomes clear something has gone systemically wrong, the victims shouldn't have to prove who and what was responsible. Simply that they have been damaged by it.

Do you know why this medication is still prescribed to pregnant mothers?
BNF says it can be prescribed if there is no alternative and mother is made aware of risk.
The report is here - https://www.immdsreview.org.uk/downloads/IMMDSReview_Web.pdf.

Note this paragraph in the covering letter:

"We have found that the healthcare system – in which I include the NHS, private providers, the regulators and professional bodies, pharmaceutical and device manufacturers, and policymakers – is disjointed, siloed, unresponsive and defensive. It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d’etre. It has failed to listen to their concerns and when, belatedly, it has decided to act it has too often moved glacially. Indeed, over these two years we have found ourselves in the position of recommending, encouraging and urging the system to take action that should have been taken long ago."

This was in 2020.

"It does not adequately recognise that patients are its raison d'etre."

That's pretty damning about a service we're always being told is the envy of the world.
It isnt specifically an NHS issue, or for that matter a British issue. Other countries are wrestling with the same issue, and it is intrinsic to prescibing in women of child-bearing age.

2 points:

1. Other countries had the same issues re what to prescribe pregnant women. But France, for instance, has taken a very different stance re compensation to the U.K. That has been a choice made by the U.K. Why?

2. The paragraph I quote above is not about the epilepsy drug alone but about how the NHS (and other medical authorities) deal with these issues and risks when they arise. It shows a service which is not in this regard fit for purpose - or not as good as it should be - and which then refuses to compensate those who suffer as a result. We should expect better. We should, IMO, compensate those who suffer as a result of these mistakes.

Leon · April 2022

I think it is fake. Apologies!

SeaShantyIrish2 · April 2022

My own IQ is over 140!

HOW do I know? Because I just took a "test" on the web, that said my IQ was 140 if I could recognize pictures of 10 historical figures.

I got a dozen before I decided to quit showing off!

kjh · April 2022

IshmaelZ said:

show previous quotes
kjh said:

FPT to @Leon re you last post on IQ and Jews:

'unscientific shite' you say to my post.

One of us is a scientist, one isn't. One of us has specific knowledge in this area and one of us doesn't. One of us suffers from the Dunning Kruger effect.

Now I don't deny there may be genetic differences across races (you seem to have missed that point in my post) but the variables are so huge it is impossible to measure.

Let's look at the opposite end of your example. Are you really claiming that the average IQ of Nepal is 43 as measured in the same way? That is idiot level. If not then what makes you think the other end of the IQ range is right?

FPT @Aslan and @rcs1000:

Robert gave an excellent reply to you re being able to extend the IQ score of someone unfamiliar with IQ tests. Many decades ago I was heavily involved in this and I can confirm that its the case. In a previous discussion a few weeks ago with @hyufd I gave a number of the techniques in doing so. To be honest even for someone familiar with IQ tests there are some clever tricks you can employ that aren't obvious.
Fabulous self torpedoing post, given that the single most certain point in the entirety of psychology is that the Dunning Kruger effect is almost certainly bollocks

You maybe right. I am not an expert in the effect, although it seems rational and we do always come across it. After all we always see armchair experts on everything here. @leon being a prime example. And even if not a general effect it doesn't mean that certain individuals don't comply with the rule and I would definitely put Leon in that category together with HYUFD.

Of course it didn't devalue the argument at all as the only purpose of that particular paragraph was a dig at Leon pointing out the irony of him posting 'unscientific shite' from a position of ignorance. The actual arguments were in the other paragraphs.

Sunil_Prasannan · April 2022

Leon said:
I think it is fake. Apologies!

Leon is SO GAY.

Anabobazina · April 2022

Hope all PBers had a good Easter in the gorgeous sunshine and didn’t spend too much / any time on here with the Ludicrous Russian Trollbots, Continuation Zerocovidians and Le Pen Fanciers.

It really has been better IRL. Hope all are well.

kjh · April 2022

Leon said:

show previous quotes
FrankBooth said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Omnium said:

Leon said:

Malmesbury said:

Leon said:

HYUFD said:

Leon said:

stodge said:

Leon said:
Christ, Macron is SO GAY
The polls suggest he is consolidating his lead over Le Pen - one has a 56-44 advantage while Ifop-Fiducial has a 54.5-45.5 lead so nine points ahead.

The debate is Wednesday evening - last time Macron chewed up and spat out Le Pen (metaphorically). She needs a much better performance to bridge what remains a significant gap.
He's going to win. Quite easily. French polls are pretty reliable

I genuinely wonder if he might use the liberation of a 2nd term as a chance to come out. Everyone "knows", that photo suggests maybe he no longer cares who knows

Who knows
Bit harsh on Mrs Macron though but yes there are plenty of rumours that he is at least bi.

Macron will likely win with about 55% but he cannot run again in 2027, Le Pen will therefore have about 40-45% as a base for next time, a significant increase on her 33% in 2017
I don't believe she will run again in 2027. She will - by then - have lost 3 times over. Too much.

So it will be a whole new slate of candidates. Probably good for France

A firm rightwing candidate will surely win in 2027, if the French right can find the correct candidate (not Marion Le Pen - also too extreme)
Yes - the worry would be that the ultra right would come up with an heir to Le Pen who has her positives, without the hard ceiling caused by the “anyone but Le Pen” thing.
Why is this "a worry"?

It is democracy. Mme Le Pen is not a Fascist, and I doubt her "successor" will be

The French are entitled to vote however they like; if they want a government which is severely secular and populist-nationalist, so be it. I doubt they will go the Full Putin
There are no Putins in mainstream French politics. Lets hope that there are forevermore no Putins anywhere.
Putin is just an end stage in a progression - the madness of power multiplied by a lunatic ideology multiplied by the belief (it seems) in an existential threat.

As Josiah Bartlett said “they weren’t born to hate”.

They learned it on the way….
America is much more worrying than France. America really is horrifically polarised, and has come close to hard rightwing revolution in the last 2 years. And neither side seems willing to compromise one iota

That's the thing with the US. It has many virtues but I don't think they like compromise too much.
Really worth reading that excellent Jonathan Haidt article in the Atlantic, linked many times already, but here it is again

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2022/05/social-media-democracy-trust-babel/629369/

Social media exacerbates divisions and polarities (and is being easily exploited by our enemies to deepen these divisions). Twitter et al sends both Left and Right quite mad with mutual hatred, and it is difficult to plot a way back to sanity. We have to hope America can do it, before something truly tragic occurs

You are right. I agree with that completely, but don't you get the irony of the fact that you go off the deep end over and over again. You are one of the people sent mad by hatred, yet you seem to think it is others, but who really aren't.

Andy_JS · April 2022

"‘An undebatable political decision’: Why China refuses to end its harsh lockdowns
Still not fully prepared for living with the virus, the government is sticking to “zero COVID”"

https://www.science.org/content/article/undebatable-political-decision-why-china-refuses-end-its-harsh-lockdowns

Covfefe · April 2022

There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

HYUFD · April 2022

Covfefe said:
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

Labor now only 1% ahead of the Coalition on the primary vote. Morrison has a 7% lead over Albanase now as preferred PM
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/federal-election/coalition-and-labor-both-suffer-hits-in-latest-newspoll-as-minor-parties-and-independents-benefit/news-story/c2c9324a66197eb0b1159c44ae6eb516

Gary_Burton · April 2022

Covfefe said:
There’s a Federal election in Australia in a few weeks’ time (May 21). In the past week, the opposition leader has revealed himself to be more gaffe-prone than Biden, the polls have moved and the betting market has shifted dramatically. Could there be an article here?

Looks like 2019 again and Morrison is doing better/less badly on the personal ratings as HYUFD has pointed out.

Howdy, Stranger!

Quick Links

Categories

The human factor – politicalbetting.com

Comments